M’s To Sign Figgins?
The Mariners are reportedly really close to signing Chone Figgins to a 4 year, ~$35 million contract. I’m pushing this out now because, while the deal isn’t done, I may not be around much this weekend, and the details aren’t likely to change much by the time it becomes official. Unless, of course, it doesn’t become official, in which case, BOOOOO.
There’s going to be a lot of discussion about this move as we go forward, and I know people will have different views of the signing. Here’s my quick take – we’ll do a full analysis at some point next week, when I have a bit more time.
Figgins projects as a +3 to +4 win player for 2010. Like signing Beltre, this will have the appearance of paying for a career year, but you don’t need him to come anywhere close to his 2009 numbers to justify the contract. At this price, the M’s have built in a lot of regression from his performance last year. $9 million a year is about what an average player signs for, and Figgins is a better than average player. The M’s are not paying Figgins like they expect him to have another +6 win season. So don’t get too upset about the fact that he just had a career year. They know that, and he’s not being paid like that performance is sustainable.
In terms of dollars per win, this is not the most efficient move they could have made. No matter what position he ends up playing, they had a younger player who could have produced 50-75 percent of the value for 5 percent of the cost. Given how much time we have spent over the years arguing for efficient spending, I get that it may be seen as a bit confusing that we are now in favor of a move that does not maximize dollars per win.
However, as we talked about earlier this off-season, the M’s are in a position where they have to consolidate value. They have a ton of decent, cheap, role players, but by going with those players at each spot, they limit the team’s upside to the point that a playoff berth becomes unlikely. Figgins consolidates value into one line-up spot, raising the upside of the team and increasing their odds of playing in October. This provides tangible value.
At the same time, Figgins versatility also significantly decreases the risk. He is the human form of diversification, offering the ability to play third, second, or left field, giving the team the ability to let Tui, Saunders, Lopez, Hannahan, and Hall earn playing time with improved performances. The ability to handle multiple positions makes all of the young players more valuable, because the risk of any of them killing the team with a terrible performance is mitigated – Figgins could replace any of them, giving the team options if Tui hits and Saunders doesn’t or vice versa.
When you get a guy who can simultaneously increase the upside and decrease the risk, you’ve got a valuable asset. As a player, Figgins is a great fit for this roster and ballpark. He’s coming at a price below what you would generally expect to pay for a +3 win player, and the wins he adds are more important in helping the M’s push toward a playoff spot, raising the marginal value of those wins (wins 80-90 are more important than 70-79 or 91-100).
He also has the type of skillset that ages well (despite claims to the contrary, fast guys are effective later into their careers than slow guys), and gives the M’s a significant offensive boost while maintaining their elite defense.
Overall, this is a good deal. It makes the team better at a below market price, increases the options the team has going forward, and allows them to give the young kids a shot to prove themselves without exposing the team to too much risk. Losing the first round pick is a blow, but it’s not a big enough one to offset the value Figgins is providing at this price.
This a good move for the M’s. Welcome to Seattle, Chone. (Assuming this gets done.)
Although we would give up the 17th pick in the draft (potentially giving the Angels a Josh Fields-type player), I feel the gain in a 3+ win player for the M’s and the subtraction of a 3+ win player for the Angels is GREAT news!
Of course, the Angels probably won’t be losing 3 wins by losing Figgins because they will likely replace Figgins with a Mark DeRosa or an Adrian Beltre.
Yes, I said it! What if Chone Figgins and Adrian Beltre just switched teams? The Phillies and Red Sox just made splashes by signing Placido Polanco and Marco Scutaro respectively. And since those two teams were speculated to be the big players in the Beltre sweepstakes, Beltre will be looking for some new bidders. Granted, Scutaro will likely fill the SS void in Boston rather than the 3B void that is Mike Lowell.
Also, I think it would be great fun to see Figgins, Gutierrez, and Ichiro! track down fly balls in the outfield. That would be an incredible outfield with a ridiculous amount of speed and range!
So in that regard, I hope Beltre accepts arbitration so we can push Figgins to the outfield and utilize his speed!
Coolalvin: who the frack cares? The point is good ballplayers, not one particular tool.
So it could be an interesting year for arbitration. Beltre (or other FA’s) will want to use pre-2010 contracts to justify value while the teams will want to use very recent contracts. Assuming, of course, that we continue to see offers coming in low. I’m sure we’ll hear the collusion talk again this year.
What if Chone Figgins and Adrian Beltre just switched teams?
I would be shocked if the Angels didn’t go with Brandon Wood.
Dave, I could be mistaken, but it seems like your $25M available calculation was done prior to the Johjima decision. If we take the team at its word that they’re not on the hook for anything for him (or at least nothing that shows up in the ’10 payroll), does that increase the headroom by $8M (making Figgins almost “free”)?
I’d suggest you read it. You might learn something. From the sounds of it, a lot of things.
It seems Brandon Wood has been the most hyped prospect for the past 10 years. Or maybe its just the combination of Brandon Wood and Dallas McPhereson. But yes, point taken.
What ever happened to Dallas McPhereson?
It’s possible, but revenue was down this year too so it’s not like they’re going to be eager to break the bank. On the other hand, they probably also had a little bit of wait-and-see wrt the new front office. I mean, they wouldn’t have had turned over the keys to the franchise if they didn’t have full confidence in Jack & Co, but they presumably had full confidence in Bavasi too and look at the holes he dug. Having a Zduriencik in charge for a full year now it’s possible they’ll feel more comfortable opening the purse strings a little more if the right opportunity presents itself. But the team is still a business, and it’s not like these guys’ other investments have necessarily been doing so well over the past year that they’re in the mood to eat lots of red ink in baseball operations. We may be pleasantly surprised, but I wouldn’t hang my hopes on it.
And anyway the reality is that it should be possible to compete and win in the AL West with a $100M payroll (even with albatross corpse of Silva’s contract hanging around their necks).
What ever happened to Dallas McPhereson?
I think he and Ryan Anderson moved to Vermont and got married.
Tell her it’s the traditional Irish spelling.
If she doesn’t believe you, make her read Joyce.
The A’s signed McPherson (last week, I think).
Nice, another new commenter obsessed with “Mo Powah!”
Since I know it will come up, and it’s about time I contribute to the discussion, here is the history from 1995-2007 of the 18th pick we’d give up to sign Figgins including highest ML level reached, wOBA or FIP
Ryan Jaroncyk SS – Out of baseball (AA)
R.A. Dickey RHP – 5.19 FIP
Mark Mangum RHP – Out of baseball (AA)
Seth Etherton RHP – 6.38 FIP
Richard Stahl LHP – Out of baseball (AAA)
Miguel Negron OF – .305 wOBA at AAA
Aaron Heilman RHP – 4.13 FIP
Royce Ring LHP – 4.44 FIP
Bradley Snyder RF – .375 wOBA at AAA
Joshua Fields 3B – .312 wOBA
Cesar Carrillo RHP – 11.42 FIP
Kyle Drabek RHP – 3.83 FIP at AA
Peter Kozma SS – .282 wOBA at AA
As you can see, though there is talent on the list, giving up the pick seems well worth it.
Matt Weiters?
Stephen Strasburg?
Bryce Harper? (wait for it, this one is just starting.)
Certainly hope this gets done and soon! I had a question for anyone to answer about the terms of contracts. I’ve heard plenty about back-loaded contracts, which seem to give a lot of flexibility in building rosters for the following season. Are there ever front-loaded contracts? It seems to me that this would make it easier to trade players later in their contracts. So if a team only needed one or two guys to make a run the following season, would it make sense to make a contract which puts the bulk of the money in the first 2 years?
I think the signing is fine for 2010 but horrible come 2012, 2013. Figgans is already 32 years old on opening day, with his one asset being speed. By the times he is 35 and 36 hes going to be a very expensive backup as a .240 hitter with a .320 OB% and no power.
Once again the Angels no when to let go of their players when their cost out weighs their future production. Hopefully Adrian Beltre is signed elsewhere so atleast the move only down grades their draft pick 10 – 15 places.
My impression of the 20 percent budget cut ordered last winter was the ownership was “rebooting” the budget. They had spent $117 million to get 61 wins. They didn’t want to spend $139 million to win 71 games. So they cut it back to $95 million and waited to see what would happen, We got 85 wins (thanks to Z). Now they can pursue those additional wins without going into Mets/Red Sox budget territory. So I don’t think it was so much about economics, just cutting the fat. (Insert Silva joke here.)
What projection system is this based on?
But here’s a study on the effects of age on hitting
Graph clearly show the the historical decline in BA from 32 to 36 years old.
Historically comparable players to Chone Figgins according to Baseball Reference
Brett Butler
Kevin Seitzer
Bip Roberts
Seitzer and Roberts apparently stopped getting called, Seitzer a bit too early. Butler was pretty good.
CBS sportsline is reported its a done deal. 4 years, 36 million with an option for a 5th year for another 9 million. If they are right, Woo Hoo!!!! This changes everything…
I am curious as to what the vesting option is… Like the signing….
You really need to go read it.
I learned more from The Book than any other source except for Dave Cameron. And Tom tango who wrote it, works for the Mariners now.
The chapter on batting order lineups was my favorite.
If this deal does get done at 4 years/36mil, it would be a giant step forward for the Mariners. I still think we absolutely need Branyan at first and a vet pitcher with a lot of upside (harden would be my preference). With branyan back at first, harden as our #2, and chone, I’d be hard pressed to see us winning more than 85 or 86 games (seeing as how Washburn and Bedard and their fantastic numbers from last year are gone)
To win the AL west I still think we need another hitter. If the money is there I would still like to see Jason Bay. Otherwise, I would like to see us take a shot as Milton Bradley (if the cubs were willing to deal him for not too much or eat a portion of his contract). They were also mentioned multiple times as being interested in him at one point. The Mariners chemistry might be just what Bradley needs to get back to his 2008 numbers.
Wag,
Read this and this and then please stop suggesting we should sign Jason Bay.
Thank you,
All the sane people who read this blog
I’m looking forward to the new ballpark food next year…The Chone Scone.
How do you pronounce that? (Preferably with your mouth full of one, I suppose, so that it doesn’t matter.)
Would that scone be fig-filled? A Scone Figgins perhaps?
Well, as Jeff obviously knows, “scone” is properly pronounced “scawn” and thus rhymes with “shawn” . . .
from a statistical standpoint / ussmariner.com standpoint what issues should decide who bats second vs. leadoff.
Is infield hits / BABIP more important to this decision than flat out OPB?
Shhhhh, we don’t want the Ichi-roll vendors to get wind of this. Last year we just skated by without getting deluged by Branyan muffins….
You might want to rethink your wording…
Whatever Ichiro decides.
I think you could say the same about Bill Hall. Everybody seems to have forgotten about him, but I just like the way he looks at the plate. If he gets healthy and finds his swing again he could really help us in the bottom half of the order.
Classic.
Matt Weiters has been hyped for 3 years, Strasburg for 2 years, and Harper this past year.
And it was the combination of Wood and McPhereson that has taken up the last 10 years of hype
Hello, long time lurker and haven’t posted much but I enjoy reading the various opinions. What do you guys think the chances are that they resign Beltre? Branyan? Is Figgins more valuable at 3B or LF? Haven’t really watched him play much to determine how good his glove is but I think his hitting style suits Safeco.