Day One Rumor Roundup
Here’s what I can gather, so far, mostly culled from the handy Mariner Writer twitter list.
Mike Salk says he hears the team likes Nick Johnson. Obviously, I’m a fan, as I’ve been trying to get the M’s to acquire him for years.
Geoff Baker suggests that Jason Bay would twist himself into a pretzel to play in Seattle. I suggest that the M’s offer him $10 million for one year and ask him to prove it. When he turns it down, tell him to enjoy Boston.
Buster Olney says the M’s aren’t in on Bay. Apparently Bay’s agent hasn’t given him the talking points memo yet, or Buster was smart enough to shred it.
Ken Rosenthal reported that the M’s offered Felix 4/45 as they begin negotiations for a long term deal. I hope its not true, because that’s not even a real offer. 4/45 offers to buy out Felix’s first two free agent years for about $10 million each. Unless you’re trying to offend him, there’s no point in making that offer. To even have a conversation, they need to come in at something like 4/65 and hope to settle in the 5/80 or 6/100 range.
Figgins deal should be announced late tonight or early tomorrow. Wak talks to the media at 1 pm, so expect a bunch of articles containing the words “belief system” at about 2:00.
Dave,
You are Larry Stone have the same hair line, speak favorably of each other, and within moments of each other just tweeted about how attractive you are convince that you are…
Also, you are a professional photographer, so making your skin several shades lighter and getting rid of that nasty facial wouldn’t be a problem…
Anyone else suspicious?
Do the M’s have any shot at Lackey? All the rumors suggest they are pursuing him and have a real shot.
As for Felix, if he would take 6/100 do it NOW!
Jon Heyman said Felix is seeking $100 for 6 years.
is a trade for halladay under any consideration? i know it’d cost a lot of money to resign him
6/100 is ok by me. And nice twitter round up. Very convenient.
Heyman reporting that Beltre will in fact decline arbitration.
What would acquiring Nick Johnson do to the M’s interest in re-signing Branyan?
Blargh, time for some reminders already it seems:
Please don’t repeat everything that gets tweeted here. It entirely defeats the purpose of pointing people to Twitter.
And if you are a new poster, a mod has to see and approve your first comment; please don’t keep reposting the same thing again and again. We’ll get to your comment as soon as we can and wave it through.
Drayer talked to various members of the M’s contingent about Triunfel and put up a blog post summarizing what she learned. As always with her stuff, well worth reading.
She also (in her Twitter feed) mentioned that at least one member of the Royals media thinks the M’s are interested in free agent Miguel Olivo(!) Hey, Torrealba is a free agent too — let’s pick up Ben Davis as a relief pitcher and reunite the entire set!
Methinks a Nick Johnson signing would pretty much sink the M’s interest in re-signing Branyan since, although I can’t prove they are the PERSON they most certainly are the same 1B/DH-type PLAYER. Those days of keeping two of the same player, neither of whom is any good, are gone.
According to Boras mouthpiece Heyman*, Halladay’s top three priorities are:
This is why the usual east coast suspects have been linked to him, whereas even the Angels are considered a long-shot. Of course that’s the usual sort of posturing you get from people trying to drive up their price for teams not named the Yankees or Red Sox, but if it’s even remotely true how much of a shot would the M’s have? And if it is just posturing, would you want to pay what it would take?
* Yes, I know Boras is not Halladay’s agent (it’s Greg Landry).
And yes, I feel dirty linking to Heyman.
Is there anyway to watch Wak’s press conference?
Bay at 1/10 would be amusing.
Hernandez at 6/100 would be ecstasy-inducing.
Felix at 6/10 would be paying him the ~$10Million he would get for each of the next 2 years, plus $20 million a year for his age 25-28 years, I believe. Given that he is still young we actually dont have to project any decline here (incredible for someone to be at this point in his career at this age). We only have to worry about injury risks.
$20 million a year would pay him as a 4 or 4.5 WAR player. I think thats quite reasonable here, probably less than he will really produce, barring injury.
Its big risk of course, since its signing a pitcher to 6 years, but definitely worth it for Felix!
thanks joser. i’m hoping for the best this offseason. i’m not in favor of the M’s trying to sign lackey. they need to sniff out a good arm somewhere (like edwin jackson)and make a lil trade
[Zduriencik, Lackey]
Larry Stone says he doubts the M’s will budge off of a 1-year offer to Branyan because of concerns about his back. So Branyan is likely gone if he gets any kind of multi-year deal from someone else or if the M’s land Nick Price.
err…Nick Johnson I mean.
I hope Z is spending as much time thinking about starting pitching as he is about first basemen and outfielders (which seem to be dominating the blogosphere conversation).
I’m not sure we want to empty the farm system for Halladay, or even pay the price for Lackey. But it’s kind of stunning to realize that Bedard and Washburn (two of our favorite whipping boys) combined for 216 innings last year for a FIP of about 3.70, and a RAR of about 46. To replace that means someone in the Carpenter/Shields/Josh Johnson neighborhood.
What other options are out there?
…if Lackey isn’t realistic and Harden gets nabbed…Byrd? Wolf? Any other pitchers named after beasts?
What about pursuing:
a trade for Adrian Gonzalez?
signing Randy Wolf?
Brandon Lyon?
Considering Ichiro!’s status on the team and his importance to ownership, will the FO be allowed to offer Felix a salary higher than Ichiro!’s, or do they have an easy way around this sticky wicket?
Are you positive that Felix making more money than Ichiro! is going to be an issue? I can’t recall ever hearing anything about him wanting to be the highest paid player on the team. Actually it sounds completely opposite to how he projects himself.
Whether Yamauchi/Nintendo want Ichiro! to be the #1 salary on the team is a possibility, it doesn’t seem likely that they would let Felix walk because of it.
Felix’s status with the team is pretty high too, I would imagine. Plus, even at 6/100 I believe Ichiro would be making more per year, when you also count his deferred money. Doesnt seem like an issue to me.
If that is a problem it’s Ichiro’s problem not the teams. But I doubt seriously that Ichiro would have a problem with it. Felix is 23 year old superstar, that has been under-compensated because of his service time. Ichiro is a 36 year old superstar player that has been getting market value wages for the last nine years.
Then again will Felix actually get paid more than Ichiro. If Felix gets 6/100, Ichiro is getting 5/90, putting Ichiro slightly ahead of Felix. Not bad for someone that will be almost 39 by the time the contract is over.
Nah. Far as I know, Dave doesn’t wear his shirt inside out or drive off with the hose still stuck in his gas tank upon hearing news surrounding Griffey…
If the Chone Figgins official announcement was going to be made tonight, would it have happened by now?
Per Baker:
Happy?
There are ways of establishing status and showing respect that have nothing to do with money. As difficult as that sometimes is for Americans to believe.
Good points Paul. I guess Larry does seem a little bit more one dimensional.
Also, wrt to Felix, take a word of advice from his agent, as relayed via Stone: chill.
(Yeah, he’s an agent, but he’s a key cog controlling the pace of the negotiation, so if he says there’s no rush then there probably isn’t going to be any news any time soon.)
Is there any news what Nero opening offer was?
Haggling isn’t something a lot people like to do. But I have spent time in places were haggling over everything is just the way people do business. The FO will not go lower now then 4/45. It is a start. They have five weeks before a deadline and neither side seems in a hurry. All of which from our limited point of view, are good things.
So unless Nero started with something truly unreasonable, I think the M’s can pull off a fair deal.
Courage true believers!
Can we expect the Figgins announcement tonight or tomorrow morning?
Well, if ‘buzz’ were the same thing as fact, I guess that could amount to something. But honestly, Edwin Jackson doesn’t make me happy in most any way, shape or form.
Geoff Baker is still reporting on Jason Bay rumors: Almost all of the discussion both here and at LL revolve around the valuation of Bay, especially in terms of the defensive metrics. But I noticed that Dave and DMZ have the Mariners’ current payroll for 2010 at 70-75 million (this is before the Figgins deal goes through), while most baseball writers (Baker-by the way, I really like Baker, Heyman-I don’t like this joker, etc) seem to be estimating their payroll at about 45-50 million. So, from their point of view, the M’s have tons of money to spend, and so signing Bay, Figgins, and say, Lackey, Harden, Sheets doesn’t seem like a stretch. I checked Cot’s baseball contracts, and it has the M’s 2010 payroll at 48.225 million. Can anyone here elaborate on how much the M’s have to spend this offseason? Do they have 50 to spend, or is it more like 25?
That $45-50 million figure does not include players like Felix who are scheduled to receive significant raises in arbitration.
The people who are reporting that the team has “$50 million” to spend are just doing lazy analysis of subtracting the salaries from 2009 that are no longer here. It’s just not an accurate gauge of where the payroll stands.
Current guaranteed salaries:
Ichiro, $17 million
Silva, $11.5 million
Figgins, $9 million
Wilson, $5 million
Snell, 4.25 million
Griffey, $2.5 million
Lopez, $2.3 million
Hall, $1.25 million
Betancourt, $1 million
That’s $52 million for eight roster spots. Assume ~$15 million for the four arbitration eligible players they are likely to tender contracts to (Felix, Aardsma, Gutierrez, Lowe), and you’re at $67 million for 11 roster spots.
Of the remaining 14 roster spots, probably 10-11 will be filled by players who will make about $500,000 apiece – Rowland-Smith, Morrow, Moore, Hannahan, etc…. That’s another $5 million, bringing the total to around $72 million.
That would leave the M’s with just over $25 million to spend.
I took the Cot’s numbers with Kenji off the books and made some WAG adjustments (modest raises to the league minimum guys, 2x bump for Gutierrez, 2.5x for Felix, etc) and came out right around $70m. If we can assume the $99M limit from last year holds — yes, Zduriencik has demonstrated he can make good use of more, but revenues were down so he might be forced to live with less — there’s about $30M to play with.
I wasn’t posting that to pump Jackson; I was responding to your worry about how much attention Zduriencik was giving to pitching. I didn’t think it was worth editing out the Jackson stuff (though I did consider it); but the point of that quote was that “Seattle has made pitching a priority” and “Safe to say, the M’s are serious about landing some arms.”
One of the (many) things that distinguishes Team Z from past regimes is that they appear quite capable of perusing multiple avenues of improvement simultaneously. Even more importantly, they’re out there ahead of the crowd, getting folks to come to them. I can distinctly recall Bavasi admitting they were “surprised by the market” at winter meetings past (part of their general inability to properly value talent), and so were in a permanent reactive mode when they couldn’t get the players they’d targeted at the (underestimated) prices they commanded. As a result the Mariners always seemed a player late and a dollar short.
It’s now very much a new day and a new way.
Dave is Larry Stone? Huh??
Thanks for the clarification on the M’s 2010 payroll. Any thoughts on the Mike Salk “waking the sleeping giant” thesis? I browsed some Angels’ blogs and they estimate that the Angels only have around $15 million to spend this offseason. So grabbing Lackey and Bay doesn’t seem too likely….
Am I the only one worried by Chone Figgins’ approximately .220 OBP in his last seven postseasons? Are we looking at a shrinking violet here?
Joser:
Good thing too! Bavasi is probably talking about the likes of Carl Pavano, Jason Schmidt, and Barry Zito. All of which the Mariners pursued vigorously, all three of which made the worst free agent signings of the decade list.
The Mariners haven’t been to the playoffs since 2001. So as I see it, that would be a wonderful “problem” to have even if you put any weight in the small sample size over all those years.
Per ESPN’s Tim Brown, Beltre declined arbitration.
I really liked Stone’s piece on the Felix negotiations today. LL just ran a piece on things agents say, but this seemed to me different. Agents don’t tell the media to relax unless their just being honest: a relaxed media creates no pressure on a front office. The M’s and Felix have time to work things out.
Isn’t 6/100 about what Felix would get as a free agent right now? Is that really a smart contract to offer? I mean, how long is the list of pitchers that have been 4+ WAR for 6 consecutive seasons?
Felix as a free agent, right now, would get something like 8/200. Maybe more. He’d easily get more than what Sabathia got.
6/100 would be buying out his first four years of free agency for ~$75 million. You certainly won’t be able to get him for 4/75 if he gets to free agency, so you’re getting a significant discount over his fair market value for giving him the deal two years early.
It’s the top end of what I’d want to pay, but if that’s what it takes, then I’d do it.
Lets say it together: SSS.
Felix wouldn’t get as much as Sabathia got last year (7/160) because he hasn’t proved his worth for as long as Sabathia had. Sabathia had 4 years with an ERA+ of 120 or above, while Felix has done that twice now. Our best gague of what Felix could get as a free agent will probably come when Lackey signs. Felix would probably get as much or slightly more than Lackey ends up getting.
I have no opinion on whether that would be smart or not. Long-term deals to pitchers scare the crap out of me.
That’s just nutty. You’re really undervaluing how much teams love Felix. There’s no hesitation about the guy. Everyone wants him.
I want him, too, but we’re not allowed to talk about things like that here, are we?
The only two pitchers that would get more money than Felix on the open market are Greinke and Lincecum, and it wouldn’t be a big gap. I like them too.
FWIW Bill James projects the FIPS for 2009:
Sabathia 3.34
Greinke 3.31
Felix 3.41
Lincecum 2.62! (NL)
And keep in mind that Felix is the youngest of the 4 by almost 2 years.
I’d bet that Felix would get more than either of those too. Greinke’s hatred of the spotlight would cause the NY/BOS teams to favor Felix. Lincecum is still small and gangly, while teams correlate size and career longevity on the mound. Toss in that Lincecum has been an NL pitcher and Felix has succeeded in the AL, there’s enough there for teams to go with the guy who looks like what they want their ace to look like.
I don’t think there’s a pitcher on the planet who would get a bigger deal as a free agent than Felix would right now.
You’re the only one who thinks 135 PA gives you a reliable number for OBP. In fact it takes more than three times as many plate appearances. And if he had those, we’d expect it to converge on his regular season career OBP. People make a big deal of postseason numbers being different from their norms but it’s always small sample size: guys “excel” or “choke” in the “pressure” of the postseason until suddenly they don’t — just like they have hot and cold streaks in the regular season. Just look at ARod.
Besides,
ifwhen the M’s get back into the postseason, we’ll find a Kate Hudson to sit in the stands for Chone.Hi everyone! This is my first post here. Hope I don’t sound like an idiot.
Sorry if someone already brought it up, but what about Mark DeRosa? I like what the team is doing in signing Chone Figgins, someone who can play multiple positions and get on base. Why not try to bring in DeRosa?
I think last year’s drop in OBP was attributed to him being hurt. DeRosa is not Jason Bay but his numbers are comparable. The bulk of DeRosa’s ABs came in the number 2 and 6 spots in the lineup, so there aren’t a whole lot of RBI opportunities there. DeRosa doesn’t have as much power as Bay, but we don’t need a lot of power. We need consistent hitters who get on base. Yes, batting around and scoring four runs off of walks, singles and doubles may not be as sexy as a grand slam, but it will wear the opposing pitcher down.
I’d take DeRosa over Bay because of salary, ability to play multiple positions and comparable numbers. DeRosa be the perfect place holder for Dustin Ackley and RH bat compliment for Michael Saunders. I doubt he’d try to break the bank and command a long term contract because of his age.
I know other people have been saying it, but I love what the M’s are doing! We’re finally getting back to the formula that let to us winning 116 games. Defense, pitching, versatile players and guys who will get on-base with line drive hits.
I nominate this for a separate post sometime in the future (assuming it hasn’t been done yet).
Do physically big pitchers tend to hold up better than the smaller ones? (e.g., Kerry Wood didn’t, Pedro did; but of course there are examples to the contrary).
Fangraphs looked at DeRosa.
I agree with Dave that Felix would be the most sought-after free agent if he was on the open market. People FAWN over him. Yeah, they do fawn. Look it up.
Whoever reports the 4/$45 M story is nuts. My gut reaction is also that the offer would be an insult.
If the team has $25-30 M left after Figgins – who was a good signing for so many reasons – then I think Z can address all the ‘holes’ the Ms have.
But how awesome is it that our team and GM seem to be in the driver’s seat and have the respect of the entire MLB? These are good times, soak it up.
“I’d bet that Felix would get more than either of those too. Greinke’s hatred of the spotlight would cause the NY/BOS teams to favor Felix.”
I agree with you when it comes to Lincecum, but I’m not sure about Greinke.
Why would Greinke’s preferences affect the Yankees offer? What would stop the Yankees or the Redsox from making a competitive offer? Do teams really think that he’s so emotionally fragile that, if he did decide to sign with them, he would wilt under the bright lights?
I think there’s more to it than that. He’s had emotional issues in the past, which raises the possibility that he may suffer from them again in the future. That might make teams hesitant to offer the kind of years and money the other guys might get.
If Jason Bay is willing to twist himself in knots to play in Seattlye, he should take a one year contract for a salary that wouldn’t handicap the club’s ability to fill their other needs.
I was tempted to wax philsophical about how little it would take to get me to play for Seattle, if I could play at a professional level, but that’s disrespectful to those that can and presumes that I can predict what I would do when there are real 7 digit offers in front of me.
Emotional issues? What?
Clayton:
I’d guess that the “philosophical dancing” didn’t start with such an exchange of numbers. I bet they started with exploring preferences and years, with the M’s saying something like they’d love to sign Felix to a 4 year deal, and Felix’ agent countering that they’d be open to consider a 6 year deal if the price was right. Something like that, anyway.
Dave:
Which sounds affordable, at $18.75 million per year. Felix + Silva in 2010 will be more than that.
Was discussing where to find a little more power and was thinking (and it may even make sense). Why not An Uggla for Lopez swap? Trying to come up with good reasons not to and it seems to make sense from both sides.
I don’t know that I’d call them “emotional” per se but he’s been pretty open about it, which is a step in the right direction for the sport (maybe in another decade one of the gay players will finally be able to admit it). But with it now under control I wouldn’t assume it’s any more of a risk than a past substance abuse problem like Josh Hamilton or even a diabetes condition like Morrow. I mean, hey, let’s not foget we have Ian Snell right here too.
However I could completely understand if Greinke wanted to not go somewhere like NY where it would get brought up in huge headlines in the Post and speculated about incessantly on WFAN whenever he had a bad outing.
This is a joke, yes?
I think there may have been some confusion, since the comment about emotional issues failed to clearly identify whose issues it was referring to.
Uggla is older (Lopez right now is younger than Uggla was when he reached the majors four years ago) and a lot more expensive (over $5M now, perhaps as much as $9M in arbitration; Lopez is on a contract for about $2M). Uggla has far better plate discipline (but in that regard Lopez is the worst among regular 2Bs in baseball) and overall was slightly more valuable last year, but the offensive value of both is tied to BABIP which tends to be pretty variable.
But if you’re looking for power, I’m not sure that what you get from Uggla will offset the extra millions you pay him… especially since Lopez is still at an age where more power may develop (in fact, take a look at the second graph here.) It’s certainly true that Uggla would have fewer “just barely” HRs at Safeco or McAfee right now, but Lopez is still getting stronger that may be less of an issue for him either.
Defensively, Uggla is a full win worse than Lopez (as hard as that is to believe); in fact, he may not be considered a 2B anymore. I’d say his biggest upside is his OBP, not his power. And I don’t see that being worth his age and cost. I can see why the Marlins might make that trade, but I don’t see why the M’s do it (unless there is more coming from Florida).
But don’t take my word for it: listen to Dave.
That would be my emotioanl issues he was referring to.
I won’t argue the point, but Grinke and Lincecum both have a consistent advantage over Felix in K/9, BB/K and WHIP. Greinke has better control than either Felix or Lincecum. And in none of the other categories does Felix have an offsetting edge. In terms of innings and LOB% there isn’t much difference between the three.
Forgive the tweak about the spelling, I struggle here with the spelling and grammar, it doesn’t come easy to me.