New Name?
This is not a rumor. The source for this idea is me. I am not reporting anything.
Okay, now that that’s out of the way, let me throw this out there. Jon Paul Morosi has reported that the Dodgers and Tigers are looking for a third team with an expensive pitcher to send to LA, allowing those two teams to move Juan Pierre to Detroit and Carlos Guillen to that third team.
The Mariners should absolutely be trying to insert themselves into that conversation. Carlos Guillen would be a nice fit for what the Mariners are looking for, as a guy who could play LF or 1B, depending on how the roster shook out. Switch-hitter with the patient approach that the team is obviously emphasizing and some power in his bat. He’s coming off a bad year that is almost entirely BABIP driven (.267 in 2009 vs .325 career), which combined with his salary, should make him a decent option as a buy low candidate.
The salary is why he’d be available in the first palce. He’s due $13 million each of the next two years, so the M’s should only be interested in a scenario where payroll is going away – specifically, Carlos Silva. The paychecks due to Pierre, Silva, and Guillen are similar enough to where it wouldn’t require huge amounts of money changing hands to make everything balance out. The tough part would be trying to figure out what else the M’s would have to include to make this work, as Silva’s clearly the least valuable asset of the three.
It seems to me that there may be a deal to be made here, though. The Dodgers also need a second baseman, while the M’s are obviously shopping theirs. Some kind of deal where Lopez and Silva made their way to LA, Pierre went to Detroit, and Guillen and something came to Seattle makes a lot of sense.
Be involved in this one, Jack. Find out if there’s a good fit here. From my perspective, there may be.
Even if his numbers don’t come back up after the low BABIP season, I’d much rather take my chances with a regressing player of his makeup than the Chef.
I suppose it may depend on the other piece that would come to Seattle? Would we end up gainig or shedding salary? If gaining, how much wiggle room is left to persue other pieces?
I like it, though. It would be wonderful to have Carlos back, even if we missed the seasons we’d prefer to have had him.
When I saw the Morosi tweet, Silva’s name was the first to come to mind. Nice analysis Dave.
Don’t tease us Dave, please. I start thinking about how great this would be and then I start thinking about whether it could ever really happen . . . and it depresses me all over again.
The fact of the matter is, I have resigned myself to idea that Carlos Silva and his bloated paycheck are part of this team in ’10. I have done everything in my power to keep from imagining the “what-if’s.” I am content that Z can’t change all the bad decisions from the previous regime overnight.
And then you make me think about what could be . . . Look, I’d rather have Christmas show up unexpectedly in July than hold out hope that I can celebrate it more than once per year.
That said, man this would be great.
Silva and Garrett Olson. Even if Silva goes, the M’s are going to have to eat some salary. At least Guillen is useful. Silva is not.
Oh, but he would be a bad influence on Felix, of course.
The only hang-up would be selling Carlos Silva as a rotation piece for the Dodgers. If that happens, this deal could go down fairly easily.
Oh, and Carlos Guillen is a 10-5 guy, so he can veto any trade. Would he come back to Seattle?
Isn’t this too much money going to LA? Is Team McCourt able to take on the Silva/Lopez salaries? It seems to me that neither Detroit nor LA is in any position to help Seattle shed payroll.
Silva for Guillen would be the most lopsided trade since we bought Manhattan.
Isn’t this too much money going to LA?
Pierre’s salary is very similar to Silva’s
Per Cot’s, the Silva/Lopez-Guillen-Pierre 3way would result in LA giving up $18.5M in salary and taking on $28M in salary. (Unless I’m screwing something up here, which is plausible.)
Great idea Dave, love it!
If Jack Z can turn Silva’s salary in to a hitter that can potentially help the M’s, that would be huge. I view Silva as a sunk cost and waste of salary…which is why I think people got excited about the Milton Bradley rumor because they viewed him as a potential middle of the order hitter that could be had for the money going to Silva.
Guillen is a much better fit in terms of the clubhouse and I agree, his skill set would be a solid fit. This would be GREAT!
Turning Silva in to anything potentially useful would be a coup!
If you look at Silva as sunk cost (is there anyone who doesn’t besides maybe memebers of Silva’s family?) anything that could be done to get value from that salary would be fantastic. It may be classified as a modern miracle.
Love it. And if we don’t get Beltre back Z can always claim he was targetting Guillen as the “player we’d recently had.”
Per Cot’s, LA would be giving up $18.5M in salary and taking on $28M in salary. (Unless I’m screwing up something here, which is entirely plausible.)
Great idea, Dave. With two relievers coming to Detroit in the Granderson blockbuster, it would seem that getting one of their two left-handed relievers (Fu Ti Ni or Bobby Seay) in the deal would be a fit. I’m sure the Tigers would prefer to trade Seay instead of Ni and Seay is not exactly death to lefties, but he makes money and if taking on his salary makes it easier to get rid of Silva, then why not?
Or maybe the deal could be expanded to include Gerald Laird, who’d fill the bill as the veteran stopgap catcher the M’s seem to be targeting for ’10.
Dave I like your thinking but there is just one tiny problem with this…you said the Dodgers and Tigers were looking for an expensive pitcher to go to the Dodgers but Silva doesn’t fit this need. He could be positioned as an expensive “eater” or “paper weight”, but I think it’s a stretch to call him a pitcher. Silva is Expensive. Silva is not a pitcher.
@MFG hmmm, I thought Pierre’s contract was 5/55, not 5/44. Weird
Isn’t “Fu Ti Ni” what the Jawas said in Star Wars?
Anyway, if Cots is right, the main salary disparity would be with the Tigers, not the Mariners.
Graham:
I think you’re thinking of the other albatross California outfielder, Gary Matthews Jr, who signed at 5/55
@Graham. Yep, Tigers make out like bandits, salary-wise, on the 3-way. Seattle saves $2M. But I just can’t see LA doing a deal that adds $9.5M to their ledger.
Just saw that the Mariners turned down a Bradley for Silva trade which seems like it could have been a good move. Silva provides no value and Bradley, although a problem child, at least provides a bat and a potential OF switch hitter who has produced in the past. Salaries are approximately the same and Bradley, I believe, has a team out clause if he’s on the DL at the end of the year. Is he too much of a cancer for the Mariners?
Casey Blake’s contract fits almost perfectly on that $9.5M, but things are getting messy.
Have to imagine that they’ve thought of this already, since the Dodgers and the Tigers are the ones talking.
Guillen would also be nice insurance if we go after Nick Johnson. The question is how much is Guillen worth on a two-year deal?
I saw Dave’s tweet about this earlier, but can’t believe that I didn’t instantly recognize who Carlos Guillen was.
If Z can turn that turd into a diamond, or even cubic zirconia, I will forever worship at the church of Zduriencik.
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Says a lot for an agnostic.
Frankly, if LA is interested in fat, useless, former Twins pitchers…Boof Bonser just got DFA’d. And LA could then just re-sign OHud and call it a day. Not sure how Silva-to-LA, packaged with Lopez or not, accomplishes anything for the Dodgers. (Not saying it wouldn’t be sweet for Detroit and Seattle, just sayin…)
@MFG
I don’t see how picking up Silva would do them any good. Even if Silva is free, does he actually add any value over some random scrap-heap guy?
Not sure how Silva-to-LA, packaged with Lopez or not, accomplishes anything for the Dodgers.
It would save them money. I wouldn’t include Lopez though. Seattle and Detroit would get somewhat useful pieces.
Why are so many people anxious to give away Jose Lopez? Getting rid of Silva is one thing, but offering up Lopez as the incentive is too much. OK, his hitting style is currently not conducive to this park, but he is relatively young and may still be developing as a hitter. His defense at 2B is adequate. I am not ready to just throw him away.
@Leroy Stanton
I was under the impression that Silva’s owed more money than Pierre, so best case scenario the M’s kick in more $ to make the salaries even out.
Excluding Lopez from the convo, I don’t think this makes any sense for the Dodgers. Silva’s probably worse than a random AAAA pitcher the Dodgers could dredge up.
I wonder what MBradleys attitude would be like with Jr. and possibly MCameron leaning on him. I THINK he might respond more favorably if he is being pushed by team mates than by a manager, but don’t have any proof of that.
If someone CAN get through to him, I think he could still have some decent seasons.
BONUS!: BBRef compares him favorably to Ivan Calderon!
My only concern is why would the Dodgers want Silva over any of the Tigers bad pitching contracts? If I’m LA why not just ask for Bonderman or Willis? Wouldn’t they have a better shot at being effective again then Silva?
@MaxPower….and, because the deal would require the M’s to take on Guillen’s $26M, the most the M’s could give LA is $2M (assuming Lopez is in the deal too), which is still gonna end up sticking LA with a bill for $7.5M. (Again, this is all going off of my reading of Cot’s, which could be faulty.)
I explicitly said in the post that money would be moved around to make everything balance out. The Dodgers wouldn’t have to take on any salary – that would just be part of the trade.
Also, Morosi’s report states that the Tigers and Dodgers need a third team to get involved, indicating that they’ve tried to make it work between themselves and can’t.
“Excluding Lopez from the convo, I don’t think this makes any sense for the Dodgers. Silva’s probably worse than a random AAAA pitcher the Dodgers could dredge up.”
That is the same thing I thought about Jeff Weaver and he turned out to be half-way useful. The NL is such an inferior league talent wise that Silva may easily be a solid #4 in the NL West. Vicente Padilla was all kinds of suck in Texas and threw great (albeit small sample size) in LA. The NL: Where Crappy AL Pitchers Go to Resurrect Their Careers—kind of catchy slogan, don’t you think?
Look, I hate Carlos Silva too, and he has been a disaster for the Mariners, but hasn’t his failure with the M’s been just a little bit mental? It’s not like his problems have been physical, and until last year, we haven’t exactly been a stellar defensive club behind him either. Obviously, the guy needs a new start, and in the NL, with a good team around him, there is a possibility he could be a decent pitcher again.
It seems like a lot of money is going to the Dodgers in Silva and Lopez… It dosent seem to work in their favor. I do like the idea of Guillen at 1b though.
@Max Power: I don’t think this makes any sense for the Dodgers. Silva’s probably worse than a random AAAA pitcher the Dodgers could dredge up.
They’d save some money and have get a proven veteran starter, capable of pitching 200+ innings each year, and an enigmatic left-handed starter (Garrett Olson) with tremendous potential.
Those are not my arguments, but rather, they’re face-saving, Bavasi-esque type arguments I’d expect from a salary-dumping organization in turmoil.
Dave, you’re speaking my language.
I’d love to see Carlos Silva try to swing the bat.
Has anyone ever said this is a salary dump? Logically, LA doesn’t need Pierre and would like to trade him for something they need, i.e. starting pitchers. They realize that the only way to do that is to take on salary in return. This looks to me like a swapping of similar contracts in order to better utilize that money in different roster spots. I don’t think the whole money issue is as big a deal as some people are thinking. But I could be wrong.
I don’t think the whole money issue is as big a deal as some people are thinking
If that’s true, then there is no hope of moving Silva.
@littlelinny6
If you regard Silva as expensive-but-useful instead of expensive and useless, then a deal seems plausible.
If you look at a scenario where the M’s send Silva + enough cash to even out with Pierre, I just look at it as the Dodgers getting worse without recognizing any cost savings.
That’s why you have to bring Lopez in but then again, if there’s a deal to be made between LA and Seattle for Lopez, I’m not sure why you don’t just make that deal and forget about Pierre/Silva.
Dave, fair enough. But it’ll take $2M from Seattle and $7.5M from Detroit, all going to LA, for the money to even out. That just seems like a lot of cash to be moved.
Dave, fair enough. But it’ll take $2M from Seattle and $7.5M from Detroit, all going to LA, for the money to even out
How do you figure? We take Guillen (most expensive @ $26MM) and eat some of Silva’s salary. The M’s are the only team with any money to spend among the three and we have the least to offer.
So, the question is: what is Guillen worth over two years?
A great idea, Dave.
Guillen was my favorite player, and I would love to see him back in Seattle…and for Silva to depart.
Despite the circumstances surrounding his departure, Guillen has said he wouldn’t mind playing in Seattle again.
Guillen’s value doesn’t matter because it is INFINITELY higher than Silva’s value to us. Given the choice, wouldn’t you take two years of Carlos Guillan for $26M, or Silva for 2/$24M? I don’t think there is anyone that wouldn’t take that.
sorry about the spelling. His name is Guillen.
@cumminjb
Yeah, but that’s the sorta like “Who wouldn’t trade Willie Bloomquist for Evan Longoria?”
Obviously, everyone would make that trade but the more important question is the flip – why would anyone prefer to have Silva over Pierre or Guillen (unless they’re getting a bunch of other stuff with the deal)?
Because just trading Lopez doesn’t do anything to mitigate the Silva money. If they make this trade you have dropped an albatross contract, addressed 1B and gotten some small value out of Lopez for essentially the same money they have already spent. And they would probably get something else in return, though not a big name.
And if they sign Beltre, your infield is now set and significantly better than last year.
Dave had this to say about Beltre at third and Figgins at second,
@Toddk
Yeah, but why would the Dodgers make that deal? Look, let’s agree that Guillen is a useful player. Pierre is…not good but he’s not a total waste of a roster spot (pinch runner, defensive replacement, etc).
Silva on the other hand? The M’s have stashed him on the DL for huge chunks of his contract because he’s so bad that you can improve the team just by replacing him with just about any random pitcher on the Rainiers. Why would the Dodgers want that guy instead of Pierre?
Dave, so what type of player comes from L.A. (or Detroit) if Silva and Lopez head that direction? Obviously you’re probably talking about a pretty marginal player … but I would think someone else would have to be included. A reliever … once Kelley and Morrow are traded?
In concept, I like this a lot. If we’re going to have a bloated salary, I’d at least like them to be contributing and filling one of the holes we have this winter. Guillen at 1B where he has a UZR/150 of +12.7 in 70 career games makes the most sense, where he and Carp can be switched interchangeably. Despite the fact that this is purely speculation and rosterbation at this point, what would be the next dominoes to fall?
With 1B/DH taken care of with Carp and Guillen and about $3-4 million (cash to LA) out of the budget, what do you do with the remaining $10-12 million?
Sign Harden to an incentive rich deal with a base of 1yr @ $7.5MM? – I see this as a given no matter what.
Keep Lopez around to play 2B with Figgins settling in at 3B, and look to add value in LF or in the rotation to go with Harden and Felix (i.e. Correia could become available on the cheap if the Padres non-tender him and could benefit from the M’s great defense)
Sign Beltre to a 3-4 yr @ 8MM/yr deal, move Figgins over 2B, and ship Lopez off for an arm?
Just trying to think how this would fit and adjust the roster construction strategy…so humor me.
Pretty interesting idea, to say the least. Something definitely worth exploring.
Does anyone have any idea if it was Bavasi’s or upper management’s idea to get rid of the “problem child” that was Guillen? If it was HowChuck’s idea, maybe they wouldn’t want him back…I don’t know how long they keep grudges.
Since he came back from his injury, his sinker hasn’t been sinking.
I think that is physical more than mental.
According to Fangraphs, Silva’s performance was worth $6.9 million in 2008 and ($0.4 million) in 2009.
@J-Dog
IIRC, most of Silva’s contribution in 2008 came in the early part of the season. He’s been basically worthless for the past year and a half. The only way that this trade happens is if Colletti & company decide that Silva is over his injury issues or whatever and is likely to recover to at least 2008 levels. I’m just not sure why they’d reach that conclusion.
My understanding is they want to get pitching without spending more money. This would be one way to do it.
@Liam
Maybe Figgins in left and Tui at 2B until Ackley’s ready?
Taken all in all, I think a deal along the lines Dave suggests would help the team; though I wonder, if we did it, if it would be plausible to play Figgins at 2B and move Carlos back across the diamond to 3B. If so, that would give Zduriencik even a bit more flexibility in building the roster.
On the one hand, I have to admit I’ve been hoping for a 1B who could contribute more than a .350 wOBA (and that’s the Bill James projection, which tends to be high); but on the other, converting $12 million of our payroll from pure sunk cost (of the “I hope he can at least be a decent mop-up man” variety) to someone who would actually contribute would be a huge win. Sure, moving Lopez would create another hole, so it’s not free money — but if we got another useful piece coming back, no reason we couldn’t strengthen ourselves in another area, too.
It would be an odd sort of deal, but I hope Zduriencik’s able to insert himself in the mix. And who knows? Send Silva to the NL, he might actually give the Dodgers something.
I’m still hoping for Ryan Doumit, too — he and Carlos would make a remarkable pair of additions, and would give our lineup and roster about as many possible combinations as a Rubik’s Cube.
See, this is why Dave needs to be at the meetings: he just doesn’t wear a name tag and mumbles something about this in the general direction of any non-Seattle media. Before you know it the LA Times and Detroit… (does Detroit still have a newspaper?) are asking what the hold up on this deal is.
[off-topic]
Doumit would be a sweet addition. Have him start out at catcher and then transition to 1B if/when Moore is ready.
So is this your reply to my question to you on Twitter?
I suggested that ‘something’ be George Sherrill, who’s getting expensive for LA (and it’s widely reported that they’re shopping him). As Graham pointed out on LookoutLanding, the salary imbalance favors Detroit a little too much, sure, but I think everyone wins a little bit in that scenario.
If the Dodgers would prefer not to take on Lopez’s salary, though, what if the M’s added in someone like French, Fister or Vargas instead? The Dodgers really do want pitching badly without having to spend a whole lot for it. They’re certainly not going to get their wish of a TOR starter if Pierre, Sherrill Blake, etc. is what they’re looking to trade.
Man, wouldn’t it have been fun to have Granderson hitting in Safeco (and playing LF — how great would that outfield be?) Ah well, might’ve-beens….
Harden has supposedly signed…Hopefully with the M’s!
Of course the other thing about the Dodgers wanting to move Pierre is they have no position for him to play. The Tigers have a vacancy in center and no real place for Carlos to play. The M’s don’t need Silva (even if he were worth anything) and the Dodgers need a starter. I think this is essentially self-evident, but it’s not just about moving money around, it’s about allocating that money to fill a need rather than have a very expensive bench player or long reliever.
I know this late to the party and all that but any trades that could bring Bradley to Seattle should be a no go.
A snake is a snake. A snake does what is will do. Milton Bradley will do what he does. No amount of magic fairy dust/hope or tickles or peer pressure will lift whatever demons taunt Bradley. He’ll, that’s being generous. He may just be a total asshole. For all we know the public Bradley is him on his best behavior. No thanks.
I posted this over at PI before reading Dave’s post over here, so might as well add it to the discussion.
This is just me rosterbating because I like the Lopez to Dodgers suggestion, as well as the rumors of the Dodgers/Tigers looking for a 3rd team in a Guillen/Pierre trade. Numbers in parenthesis are contract info for 2010-2012.
Dodgers get: Jose Lopez ($2.3 M, $4.5 M option), Carlos Silva ($11.5 M, $11.5 M, $2 M), cash from Mariners and Tigers
Tigers get: Juan Pierre ($10 M, $8.5 M)
Mariners get: Carlos Guillen ($13 M, $13 M), prospects from Dodgers
Looking at the contracts only, the salary implications would be:
Dodgers: +$3.8 M in 2010, +$7.5 M in 2011, +$2 M in 2012
Tigers: -$3 M in 2010, -$4.5 M in 2011
Mariners: -$0.8 M in 2010, -$3 M in 2011, -$2 M in 2012
Obviously the Dodgers aren’t in a position to take on that kind of cash and the Tigers wouldn’t be able to get out of that amount of Guillen’s contract. The Dodgers have a history of giving up better prospects if the trade partner is willing to pick up a big chunk of the contract (Blake & Ramirez trades in 2008). So I would suggest the Tigers throw in $2.5 M in 2010 and $4 M in 2011. This lets them marginally reduce payroll while getting more athletic. The Mariners would then include $1 M in 2010 and $2.5 M in 2011, leaving the final finances at:
Dodgers: +$0.3 M in 2010, +$1.0 M in 2011, +$2 M in 2012
Tigers: -$0.5 M in 2010, -$0.5 M in 2011
Mariners: +$0.2 M in 2010, -$0.5 in 2011, -$2 M in 2012
The Dodgers have a number of interesting arms in their system (Winthrow, Lindblom, Eovaldi, Martin (wouldn’t happen), Elbert, McDonald) as well as some interesting but lower ceiling infielders (DeWitt, Hu, DeJesus jr., Baez, Gordon (wouldn’t happen)). I could see some combination going to the Mariners.
Trade makes sense for everyone:
Dodgers: keep payroll in check, get some veteran rotation depth, get an upgrade at 2B
Tigers: get more athletic and slight payroll reduction
Mariners: get rid of Silva for a player with decent offense and some position flexibility, move Lopez to clear way for other alternatives, pick up decent prospects/young players
Couple other things.
(1) The group-think hate on Carlos Silva is getting annoying. Yes, he is overpaid. Yes, he is overweight. Yes, his contract is an albatross (though there are worse – Zito, Wells, Soriano). But a lot of you are acting like he was never any good and/or has zero chance of returning to what he was. He put up a WAR over 3 in 2004, 2005, and 2007. Since becoming a SP in 2004, he has 11.2 WAR, which makes him just below league average in a 6-year span. I don’t like him and I don’t like his contract, but he certainly has a non-zero chance of returning to form as an overpaid, strike-throwing, groundballer. Maybe the M’s have to eat some money even in a bad-contract swap with another team. But I doubt everyone in baseball has so given up on Silva that no one would take him under any circumstances, which seems to be what 1/2 of the posters here believe.
Just because he was completely worthless last year doesn’t make him worth less than a generic AAAA arm in a revenue-neutral transaction. AAAA arms can’t put up 3 WAR seasons, which Silva has. AAAA arms will never be good enough to throw 150 major league innings in a season, which Silva has done 5 times. So please, just be reasonable in your hate.
(2) Maybe this is just anectdotal or bad memory on my part, but in the past I seem to remember some of Bradley’s teammates speaking out on his behalf. Maybe they were just doing it for posterity or to preserve some semblance of clubhouse order. But my impression has been that Bradley has a terrible relationship with the media, a mediocre relationship with coaching staffs, and an OK relationship with his teammates. He is certainly in the lower tier of personalities you want in your clubhouse, but he probably isn’t as bad as his reputation, and he can certainly hit. While I understand the concern about bring someone with his temperment into the clubhouse, I don’t understand the hate or complete aversion.
After thinking about the Silva+Lopez/Pierre/Guillen possibilities a little more, the team it makes the least sense for is Detroit. For it to work, Detroit would probably need a little more salary relief from what I suggested above, or the M’s could send one of their relivers (White?). Guillen to Pierre doesn’t make much sense unless the Tigers are saving a couple million in the process, or picking up a useful player.