Your current depth chart for the 2010 M’s
Pitching
SP-R Felix Hernandez
SP-L Ryan Rowland-Smith
SP-R Brandon Morrow
SP-R Ian Snell
SP-R Carlos Silva
SP-R Doug Fister
SP-R Yusmeiro Petit
RP-R David Aardsma
RP-R Mark Lowe
RP-R Shawn Kelley
RP-R Sean White
RP-L Jason Vargas
RP-L Garrett Olson
RP-L Luke French (?)
RP-R Kanekoa Texeira
There’s a lot of play in who out of the potential SP/RP guys ends up where — do they push Silva to the bullpen, even.
Position players
C-R Rob Johnson
C-R Adam Moore
1B-L Mike Carp
2B-R Jose Lopez
SS-R Jack Wilson
3B-B Chone Figgins
LF-L Michael Saunders
CF-R Franklin Gutierrez
RF-L Ichiro!
DH-L Ken Griffey Jr.
UT-R Bill Hall (IF/OF-R? OF-R?)
IF-L Jack Hannahan
.. and then Tui? They do love Tui.
There’s shopping to be done.
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We all love Tui. Well, I guess I can’t speak for everyone. However, Tui is struggling at a .170/.241/.302 clip in Puerto Rico. He’s actually just been moved Caguas to Ponce. I don’t know what that means.
I think Tui needs at lest another year at AAA. Just me.
The starting pitching depth makes me a little sad… they definitely need to sign one pitcher. At least in my mind they need one.
nitpick: Lowe’s a righty.
Yeah, it’s nice we’ve got 3B(?) nailed down with a nice addition in Figgins, but I’m thinking we still need 1B, DH, and SP. I just don’t see LF being as high of a priority to the M’s as people think.
I know that they’re looking at every pitcher with a pulse this year. I just meant at the moment it makes me a little sad.
And I agree about LF not being the highest priority for them. Saunders given time to grow in Spring Training and the early part of the season may surprise us. I think he’s got enough talent to lock down LF and give some good ABs.
If the season were to start tomorrow, with only the players available who are on this depth chart, WAR projections would suggest, what, 77 wins or so?
So far, among players who gave us more than 0.5 WAR last year, we have lost Branyan, Beltre, Johjima, Josh Wilson, Langerhans, Chavez, Washburn, and Bedard, and picked up Figgins. (Josh Wilson shouldn’t count since he is still available from Tacoma.) Using 2009 numbers, that is 12.2 WAR lost and 6.1 gained. 83-12.2+6.1=77.
This is just a shorthand method with obvious flaws but it does show that “there’s shopping to be done.”
Oh, I used 83 as the baseline since the Mariners’ 2009 cumulative WAR suggested 83 wins.
What about Doug Fister? Is he not going to make a better starter than Snell or Silva?
I know we’re more concerned around here with roster construction necessarily than lineup construction, but a couple of thoughts. Assuming Branyan comes back into the fold (and I think that’s likely unless Omar Minaya starts to panic and the Mets give The Muscle the two guaranteed years he’s looking for), it seems that the part of the problem then becomes less of who is playing what position than whether or not we have a lineup that can produce runs.
CAUTION: THIS IS NOT A POST ABOUT THE M’S “NEEDING” MORE “POWER.” I have accepted, mostly, the gospel that runs are runs regardless of one produces them. I am not advocating anything here, but rather interested in the thoughts of others.
If Branyan does come back and bats cleanup again, then who do we see as a potential number 3 hitter in a lineup that presumably will have Ichiro and Figgins 1 and 2? It seems to me we would want someone who will get on base and make contact at a better than average rate, while at the same time not someone who will hit a ton of ground balls and hence wipe out scoring opportunities created by the two on-base machines batting in front of him. Does this sound like a decent set of assumptions?
It seems like there is a pretty strong sense among is that Jose Lopez is not the guy I just described. It would be nice if we had a better sense of Michael Saunders at this point, but the small sample size precludes us making any conclusions about his ability to produce at the Major League level the way he did in the minors. Too bad, since if we could be confident that he could he would be ideal for the job just described, especially with his speed. I love Gutierrez, but a .340 OBP is probably the very best we can expect from him, and he has a career 1.14 GB/FB rate and 1.25 last year. His .334 BABIP otherwise looks good. As for the rest (Jack Wilson, Junior, the two-headed monster of Johnson/Moore [and any available veteran cathcers, all of whom at this point are all low-OBP guys]), there doesn’t seem to be anyone who fits the bill. Tui has the same problem as Saunders in demonstrating (yet) his ability to do what would be required of him in the three slot, and right now looks like a man without a position. Ackley would be ideal, but as has been noted here often, probably a year away.
Again, maybe I’m worried about this more than I should be, and at the risk of inviting ridicule, I have started to think a little differently about Jason Bay (about whom I initially cringed). While realizing his numbers will not be as good at Safeco, he does have a career wOBA of .384, has a GB/FB rate below 1 (and it has generally declined over the course of his career). Again, I am not advocating anything here, and I would rather see a different solution. But I respect the opinions of those here and just wanted to pick your brains over this issue of who would ideally hit behind Ichiro and Figgins, and whether any of our current in-house options are workable…
Hmm… maybe Olson will have better success throwing from the right side.
One way or another, Fister and French will be fighting in out in Tacoma next year to see who will be the first guy called up when a rotation spot opens. The team will be in bad shape if either guy makes the roster on Opening Day.
Dave on Snell,
Someone already mentioned that Lowe’s a righty but Olson’s a lefty as well. I can’t see them carrying Olson, Vargas AND French in the bullpen. More than likely Aumont or Fields would fill on of their roles.
Lot’s of shopping to be done, in both pitching and 1B/DH. I hope we give Saunders a full year in left field unless we find someone (i.e. Cameron) for a one year deal letting Saunders work on his swing a bit more in AAA (though it’s arguable whether that would help him or not).
Whoops I didn’t catch wsm’s comment, oh well
Can we anticipate interest in any of the non-tendered guys? Kelly Johnson would seem like a a guy that could rotate b/w LF & 2nd base . . .
I think there would be some interest in Johnson particularly if the traded Lopez, but wouldnt want to bank on him as a starter. The other guy I would really like to see us have a run at would be Wang.
And maybe Mark Lowe will be a more attractive trade chip as a lefty
It will be either Olson or Vargas, not both. French could make it as the LH though.
Good post – GarForever…. I have started thinking differently of Bay too. I know about his right handedness not being perfect for us but do think we need a patient power threat from the right too. Just not for $60 mill and 4 years for a guy who really is a DH type player with little versatility, but at the right price I would be happy with him.
Regarding 1.14 GB/FB rate and 1.25 last year… where do I find out how this stat actually is defined?
Kelly Johnson would be an interesting addition. His lousy year at the plate, last year, was largely due to a terrible BABIP (.249). He has a bounceback year coming. Plays 2B passably well (was essentially an average (-0.2) UZR150 guy last year…worse the previous 2) and was pretty good in LF when he last played there (2005).
I like him. He’s a much better bat option than Bill Hall..but a little less flexable defensively in that he doesn’t play third. But that’s part of the Hannahan package, too. Johnson probably doesn’t play RF as well. But we’re not bad in RF, already.
I look at the M’s as having 4 holes to potentially fill with the (roughly) $15M most agree we have to spend.
#1. A #2-#3 starter type. But we all know they’re looking. (This is a significant expenditure)
#2. A veteran BU catcher type. Just incase Johnson takes a bit to get healthy. (basically free)
#3. A full time DH. I’m not as optimistic as some that this will be Branyan. HIs true performance level is somewhere between last year’s blazing start and last year’s frosty (injury related) finish. I wouldn’t pay two years for him. One and an option, yes. (this is going to be a decent sized investment for a year)
#4. A left fielder with a stick. I hope we have the right guy in Saunders. But I just did not see a major league hitting talent last year. He did not look like a major leaguer at all. Correspondingly, Carp looked like he belonged. Saunders had twice as many PA’s but Carp looks like a guy who will not get himself out hacking away at bad pitches. And he has decent gap power.
I could easily live with him pencilled in the lineup 140 times at 1B. Would fit batting 2nd, 3rd (in the sense that you probably don’t have a big HR guy to put here) or 6th.
But that $15 million should buy us a bunch of those wins back.
Is Beltre signed back? I’m not betting on it. He could be a 2/$15-16 guy in this market, which makes him not accepting arb and the $12 he would get as pretty dang stupid. I think you can safely figure Beltre to be a 3.5 WAR guy and at $8 or even 9 million that is pretty cheap. But the better question is whether you can find 2WAR for 3 million…freeing up $5-6M for the other guys you’re looking for. 3B is currently a strength and 2B isn’t a weakness…so I thnk Beltre is a low priority). But if you sign him, Figgins bumps Lopez who becomes (minus a trade) part of the 1B/DH mix.
But I ramble. We need a LF guy and a DH guy and an arm. $15M should get most of that done.
Keith
Sigh…Adrian Gonzalez would be nice. Like it’ll actually happen…
A starting pitcher (Lackey?) to push out Silva, Nick Johnson, and Branyan or another 1B/DH type and that lineup looks quite good.
We’re not looking for a DH-type. We don’t have the roster spots to sign a DH, even if he is a good hitter. If we’re signing someone they need to play the field too. This is why I didn’t like resigning Griffey.
Hey Gibbo –
I like fangraphs.com, which not only has the stats but also includes an interactive glossary (and where one of fearless leaders, Dave Cameron, also routinely posts).
Hope that helps…
I am of the opinion that Seattle does not need to go “all in” this year in order to win. I do not think they are close enough, yet. I do not want to see them give up too much to “win now”.
That is why I see anything involving Bay a bust. Sure, as was pointed out, he could certainly help a little next year. But he is overpriced, and you would have to give him a deal that would stretch well into his declining years. If Seattle was close to a WS type team, maybe you can justify it, but they are not.
I would like to see what Saunders can do. I also would like some of the young pitchers to get a chance. If all the stars line up, and they produce, Seattle can be a winning team. If only a few work out, you have something to work with for 2011.
Maybe Jack Z. can still come up with a great trade? Who knows. It is a fun off-season, but lets not get too greedy and sacrifice the future.
Looking at that roster it is pretty clear that we need a lot of help. What we need is a couple of
4war guys. The only guys on the open market that are going to get us close are, Nick Johnson 3.4war and John Lackey 4war. I say sign those two players.
Then put Carp at 1B and Saunders in LF. Either Moore, Carp or Saunders one of those three will have to play huge for us to contend.
Let’s not forget Branyan has some very real risk with his back. Messed up disks are a very different situation from, say, Tommy John surgery; he could be fine or he could break down at any time. There’s a very good chance you could be paying millions for no production (and then more for a replacement) for a chunk of the year (or, worse, more than a chunk of one year if he gets a multi-year deal). I liked him too, and I think much of his ’09 results are actually sustainable (prior to Seattle he had been relegated to a platoon role despite not accumulating enough PAs against LH hitters over his entire career to conclude anything valid about his splits)…. assuming he can actually swing a bat. Which is definitely a risky assumption. Of course that’s also what makes him affordable. But we can’t just look at the potential upside.
Of course other options like Nick Johnson have their risks too.
Well, it could happen if you’re willing to give up the farm in a Bedard-style trade. I doubt Moorad would ok trading away their face-of-the-franchise for anything less.
I’m not either. In fact, given the moves in Boston (sending Lowell to the Rangers — and $9M of his salary! — to open up 3B) it looks pretty likely he’ll get better-than-arbitration money (and/or more than one year) there. Figgins is the M’s fulltime 3B. I think we should just mark that down and move on.
Meanwhile, speaking of former Boston players, Bay apparently turned down $65M/4years from the Mets last week. If he’s willing to take a “hometown” discount from the M’s, it’s not going to be much less than the $60M the Red Sox offered him, and it’s almost certainly not going to be less than 4 years. However good Bay might sound to you now (and I think that’s debatable, especially for his 91 games in SafeCo and McAfee) how does paying $15M for the 35-year-old version of Bay in 2013 sound? It sounds a little Sexsonesque to me.
Yes I do agree we need our DH to preferably be able to play the field and while in some ways I really like Griffey being back it does have some challenges. There are still many ways for Z to go. At this stage I hope Saunders gets an extended chance and think he probably will. I guess that’s where if we had Hall and Johnson to cover LF if Saunders struggles then that’s probably OK. Then we just get a tandem of 1B/DH – Like 2 of Branyan/Johnson/Delgado/LaRoache
Fister is a strong middle relief option. He has trouble the second and third time through even a bad lineup, but three average pitches can go a long way as a sixth and seventh inning guy.
Yeah, and wave your magic wand and the pots of money appear. What do think this is, the Yankees? We don’t yet know what the market for Lackey will be, but he’s been reported to be looking for a deal comparable or better (in dollars and/or years) to what the Yankees gave AJ Burnett ($85M/5) last year. Even if we believe the market in general has declined a bit and teams are paying less per win (in part because the Yankees aren’t out there throwing around cash like last year), as the premiere name and top pitcher Lackey is still going to command big bucks and a lot of years — especially since the Angels are still interested will stay in the conversation if for no other reason than to keep the price high for the M’s.
If the M’s sign Lackey, I expect they’ll be making any other acquisitions via trades. I just don’t see how they have the budget for two 3+ WAR players in free agency.
Good point, Joser. I guess I am just trying to figure out what to do about what looks — for the moment at least — like a potentially pretty considerable hole in the lineup behind Ichiro and Figgins. I realize much could change between now and the end of Spring Training, and no one would be happier than I (well, except for maybe Z and Wak) if Saunders or Carp emerged as the kind of guy who would move those two along and otherwise be productive. Again, as I indicated in my own post, I do not see Bay as anything close to an ideal solution, but right now I’m having a hard time seeing anything that looks like a reliable and good solution for 2010. Even if the M’s can land Nick Johnson, he is a player who has his own troubling history of missing time to injury. You raise an excellent point, too, about whether Branyan can come back at full strength and stay healthy. Hmmm…maybe I was right to be worried after all >:<
” I just don’t see how they have the budget for two 3+ WAR players in free agency.”
That’s where we have to make some higher risk moves. Nick Johnson, Delgado and Wang. 3 guys that you could maybe get for around $15M odd in total… that’s just a guess. But you have some high upside and have guys like Carp and some of young pitchers to cover them when/if they fall over.
The only way I make a big trade is for a guy like Adrian Gonzalez and also on the condition there is a window to extend him before the trade is official.
Not really up for paying big bucks for Lackey. I think Z will trade for and get us a decent SP to fill the number 2 spot.
Delgado may be at the “beggars can’t be choosers” point of his career but it was widely reported that he wasn’t interested in playing on this side of the continent, which is why the M’s went after Sexson instead. (I think I’m remembering that correctly.)
That may be because you’re limiting yourself to just the list of free agents. I think it’s entirely possible that Zduriencik will most improve the team through moves that don’t involve significant FA signings…just like he did last year. Assuming he still has budget available, he presumably will spend it, but focusing on the players at the top of FA lists is what is making this seem impossible — of course, once you open yourself up to all the possible trade permutation it gets hard to focus on anything. But that’s why Zduriencik & Co do this for a living and we don’t.
And then there’s addition by subtraction, like paying Silva’s salary for another team to take him in exchange for another player. Etc.
BTW, Mathew at Lookout Landing has been publishing his take on Nick Johnson and Lackey.
Reading various rumor threads, a couple things of interest -
On Fox Sports, JP Morosi says Jose Lopez to the Braves for Derek Lowe is a possibility.
Ryan Garko nontendered by the Giants – damn, i wish we had room for a cheap lefty masher like him, but yes, I acknowledge that Griffey makes this unlikely.
I’d guess that a solid SP or a 3+ WAR position player is likely to join the team, but I’d be surprised to land both.
Actually, I just didn’t want to get into that (as you rightly mention, Joser, endless potential permutations) lest it descend too far into speculative rosterbation. But I think you’re right. Given their short history, I share what I read as your optimism that this is an issue the front office may well resolve through a trade, and very possibly a good one at that (although I wonder how many more overvalued pieces the M’s have to move in order to get the kind of haul we may like in return; i.e., will what the M’s give up the next time “hurt” a little more than waving goodbye to J.J., Sean Green, and Jeremy Reed?). But given the topic of the thread, I wanted to explore the notion that what we currently have in-house may not be all that suitable to keeping the engine at the top of the lineup humming.
As always, I appreciate your insight…
Another nitpick: Olson is a lefty, unless he’s going into 2010 trying something new to get some extra zip on his fastball.
I’m down with Lopez for Lowe assuming they pick up 5-6 million/year of his deal. I’d be happy with that, though they probably want to dump more than that.
Quibble: Isn’t Ryan Rowland-Smith ahead of Morrow on the depth chart? Morrow may potentially have more upside but I think Rowland-Smith has been more consistent (when healthy).
If somehow the worst happened and no significant pitcher was acquired this winter, I know I’d be a hell of a lot more comfortable seeing Rowland-Smith starting the day after Felix…
Question for the crowd: As a general matter, a corner outfielder moving to center field can be expected to lose roughly ten runs of his UZR. Is there a similar estimate for a corner infielder moving to shortstop?
Thanks
Any interest in Blanton out there? The Phillies want salary relief but is he a number 3 pitcher at best?
Is there a chance that Anthony Varvaro is one of those surprises, and makes the big league club?
Brendan-
I would think that it really depends on what corner you play. As we know, 1B is not a very defensive-minded position. A transition from 1B to SS would be very difficult and likely would result in a large loss in UZR. However, if the player is moving from 3B to SS, it is a much easier transition as players frequently shift positions on the left side of the infield. There is no doubt that a move from 3B to SS is less of a decrease in UZR than either 1B to SS or LF/RF to CF. Some players may even have an increased UZR after moving to SS from 3B. In the case of Melvin Mora, he has a much worse UZR/150 at SS(-16.9) than at 3B(-2.8). Meanwhile, Alex Rodriguez has a much better UZR/150 at SS(11.9) than at 3B(-2.2).
Hope that clarifies things a little.
I may sound ridiculous on this, but I actually think that an Adrian Gonzalez trade isn’t that far fetched. We have a lot of what the Padres are looking for, which is young pitching. It all depends on whether or not GMZ is willing to give some of it up. It is clear that Gonzalez would do so many amazing things for our lineup, but what would be the asking price.
The more I look at it I think Jonny Gomes is a viable candidate for the DH slot. He’s right handed, while he isn’t great against right handers (.844 vs LH – 763 vs RH ops 2007-2009), he isn’t completely helpless against them. He’ll be cheap, so it won’t be a huge albatross, other than the roster spot, if doesn’t work out. And the fact he is right handed allows you to have Jr. DH when Gomes is facing a tough righty, so hopefully Gomes woeful OBP against RH won’t hurt you too bad. Here is his three year splits, which consist of 502 AL and 281 NL at bats.
L – .267/.341/.503
R – .224/.307/.456
No that isn’t what the Padres are looking for. They are looking for a trade that will knock their socks off. Sure we could give up Felix to get Gonzales, but that is probably about it.
You’re right, a trade that will knock their socks off that involves a lot of young pitching. I wasn’t wrong.
daqmajor thanks.
I was thinking of Hannahan specifically, since Dave has said he’s the back up for Wilson and all.
Um, yes you were. Unless you approve of trading away our best player for a semi-significant upgrade from Russell Branyan.
Should I be concerned about Ichiro’s negative ARM value? I may just be paranoid, but its the first time since 2002 that he’s posted an ARM value less than .9, and I’m starting to think that age may become a bigger factor. He’s said he wants to pitch when he’s 40, and is in great shape, but I am still concerned. Can someone come up with a logical reason for why I shouldn’t so I can stop thinking about it?
Did you just call Adrian Gonzalez a “semi-significant upgrade from Russell Branyan”?? Wow.
Taylor H:
Adrian Gonzalez is much more than a “semi”-significant upgrade over Russell Branyan. He’s averaged 5.7 WAR over the past two years, while Branyan was less than half the value of Adrian last year. That being said, the Padres know the value that Adrian brings to their club for the low price their paying him, and there’s no way that the M’s will get him without giving up Felix. Even then, the Padres might not accept given that Felix is due $15-20 Million in arbitration the next two years, whereas Gonzalez would cost them $10M. Factor on to that the fact that Gonzalez brings the massive Latin population of San Diego to the ballpark and it is really unlikely that the Padres will trade away the face of their franchise even for Felix or a multitude of young pitching.
When did I say that we should give up our best player? I assume you are talking about Felix….the guy who replied to my first comment was the guy who said the only thing that would land Gonzalez would be Felix. I don’t agree with that at all. I simply said that the Padres will want a lot of young pitching. That is why I said I wasn’t wrong, because that is what they will want.
If the padres turned down the trade from the red sox which I think included bucholz, bard, bowden and Lars anderson, then we don’t have a chance.
Any team in baseball can give the Padres lots of young pitching. What the Padres would want is young grade A MLB ready arms, maybe not established yet, but huge prospects. The Mariners don’t have that. Probably the best two pitchers we could offer other than Felix is Morrow and Aumont, even if we threw in Fields that wouldn’t be enough. Because 2/3 of the best young non-Felix arms we have are relievers, and Morrow maybe too. So unless the Padres are brain dead, there won’t be a deal.
If you’ll remember, at the trade deadline last year, there was talk of a three way with Boston, the Padres and us, we’d get Gonsalez, what would we have to give up? Felix.
Way too many righties in the starting rotation…..
Felix/Lee/RRS/Morrow/Snell sounds almost too good to be true.
is there any estimate on what we have left to spend? 8, 9 million?
I guess that worry can be put to bed for the year.