What This Trade Does
The weird thing about the internet age is that by the time big moves are announced, they’ve been analyzed to death and there’s not much more to say. We got one of the best pitchers in baseball without giving up any real significant pieces of the franchises future. This is amazing, but you know this already.
So, at the risk of moving on from celebration prematurely, I’d like to spend a few minutes and talk about what this trade does to the team and the rest of the off-season.
Lee’s addition is a huge lift to the team’s true talent level, as the M’s have essentially swapped out (for now) one of Doug Fister/Jason Vargas/Carlos Silva for an all-star. They added about 4 to 5 wins to their expected total for 2010, depending on how much you like the collection of 5th starters the M’s currently have. This move, combined with the Figgins signing, gives the Mariners a true talent level of about 84 wins. And that’s with Saunders in left, Carp at first, and Griffey DH’ing.
The Mariners are now contenders. This vaults them into a similar arena of ability with the Angels and ahead of the Rangers and A’s. This team now has a legitimate chance to win the division in 2010, and because they’ve gotten bargains on Figgins and Lee, they still have the resources to go add a couple more pieces to fill out the roster and really give themselves a chance to play in October next year.
So now, the calculations change a bit. 2010 just got more important relative to the future than it was last week. The M’s have now put themselves into a position where the value obtained from upgrading the roster has a far more dramatic effect on the team’s chances of making the playoffs. In terms of the risk/reward balance of transactions, the reward for any move that improves the 2010 team just went up.
I talked about this a bit on FanGraphs last week, but the Mariners have just put themselves in a situation where the marginal value of each additional added win just went way up. The wins that push the team from 84 to 85 wins, 85 to 86, 86 to 87, and so forth have a much higher rate of return. The price the M’s should be willing to pay, both in acquisition costs and in the long-term/short-term trade-off, needs to reflect that. And I think you will see the team be aggressive in landing two more quality position players and perhaps a reliever, reflecting the reality that adding 4 to 5 more wins to this roster would make the M’s the best team in the AL West.
Before this trade, picking up a solid left fielder might not have been such a great idea, as the short term addition of a win or so over what Saunders could be expected to produce wouldn’t be worth the long term cost of not letting the youngster develop. Now, that win is important, and you can justify getting a guy like Luke Scott to take Saunders job. You can justify trading Brandon Morrow while his value is still lower than it could be if you get a significant upgrade at another position. You can justify putting together a huge package to try to convince the Padres to move Adrian Gonzalez (though that is still very unlikely).
This move changes everything. The M’s are contenders.
Aha! I thought so!
The purse strings open, they’ll be more aggressive with the minor leaugers, etc. And the good thing is that, based on track records, Zduriencik will not cripple the team, but will have coverage for future years (i.e., long enough for prospects in the system to prove themselves and be capable replacements).
The exciting part of all of this, is that I trust that Jack is going to do it right. He may be willing to pay more for those extra wins, but I am convinced he can and will do it without sacrificing the future of this organization.
Beat you!
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Spending $9M on Lee vs. $12-14M on the likes of Harden, Sheets, etc to bolster our rotation… “wow” is all I can think of… Les put that extra $$$ towards someone to drive Ich and Chone in!!!
As if no one has said this before, this is literally jaw-dropping. To pick up,on the relative cheap, Figgy, and the addition of Lee (with picks if he walks) is truly inspired hunting on the part of JZ. This is the guy that we have needed for so long, and it will lure other FA’s to come here.
I thought that Saunders would be an okay fit this year in LF, but Dave is correct. Get a solid glove/bat that will enhance our chances, allowing Saunders to continue development. I am all for a Johnson-like DH, and it may be that Carp can hit enough slaps to handle the bag at first. And if we could pick up a vastly reduced, overlooked pitcher who needs to reinvent himself, all the better. In JZ and Tango we trust.
Un %#$@ing believable. We’re contenders! Who would have thunk it for ’10?
Considering that Washburn pitched very well last year when he was here, does the signing of Lee still add 4-5 wins over what he provided last year before he was traded?
Just wondering if that was part of you analysis.
Either way it is a great trade.
It doesn’t matter how we are now relative to last year. It matters how we are now relative to last week.
Jeff, I understand. Thanks for the clarification.
The folks at Halos Heaven call Tony Reagins “The Ninja.” If so, what does that make Jack? Who could out-stealth a ninja? The Invisible Man? Batman? Phil Ivey? We love you, JZ.
So now there are four major possibilities that upgrade the M’s chances significantly.
* LF Jason Bay. Cheapest star option in the FA market. If you hate his D, you disagree with me here (I hold he’ll be league average there, but that’s another discussion. I’ll accept disagreement here; just listing the options).
* LF Matt Holliday. Better D than Bay, and likely a modestly better bat. More expensive, although backloading a year or two of contract mitigates this. St. Louis’ proposed deal is only five years, not eight… so he’s gettable.
* 1B Adrian Gonzalez. The big hurt here is that the guy WANTS to go to Boston (supposedly). He’d be the best get… if the price is Buchholz + another top Boston guy, we can definitely beat that with a Triunfel + Morrow + top prospect trio. It’s just a matter of what Z thinks is worth the cost.
* ’1B’ Prince Fielder. Who cares if the guy will end up as our DH? More expensive (salarywise) than a dirt-cheap Gonzalez, he’s no glove guy. But even coming from a tin-can ballpark (and Gonzalez succeeding in Petco Pitcher’s Haven), his bat is an upgrade. Sign Johnson to man first, and Fielder can go straight to the no-glove role. And his higher cost and worse defense (not to mention other marquee players left behind him in MIL) means he should be CHEAPER (prospect-wise) than Gonzalez.
—
If you see one of these four come to Seattle this offseason… you have to call Seattle the clear AL West favorites.
So now there are four major possibilities that upgrade the M’s chances significantly.
No. If you had compiled the list of pitchers that would upgrade the roster a week ago, Lee wouldn’t have been on it. Don’t limit yourself to the guys that ESPN has heard of.
Derek had 15 pitchers on his depth chart.
Today, there are 16.
It will be interesting in Arizona to see which make the team, and who the 4th and 5th starters will be.
I’d give a mention here of French, often forgotten (Derek even had a question mark next to his name) but he could fit in Safeco just like Washburn did. Left handed flyball pitcher, without overpowering stuff. For someone like him, a good March could mean he’d be in the rotation.
ESPN hasn’t heard of Fielder yet. =) At least, not in connection to the M’s.
You’re right – no limitation necessary on Z’s options. That wasn’t quite the idea I was intending to portray, but that’s my bad. These are the more obvious guys; a Branyan-Johnson doublesigning would provide some help for sure… and I definitely am not going to say Z can’t pull something else out of his butt and boggle our minds again. I would, however, prefer to see a star-level power bat enter our lineup before the season starts.
Maybe he can convince St. Louis to trade Pujols before his 10-5 rights kick in… or pry some other ‘non-available’ player away from his GM’s cold dead fingers. All I know is, nothing is beyond the reach of Z at this moment.
mmm… “star-level power bat”.
“The M’s are contenders.”
I think my computer just wacky on me, I don’t remember ever reading this in the past several years. (No, 2007 doesn’t count, that was ill-informed wishful thinking.)
As far as 1B and LF, I don’t see us going the free agent route. Z has other plans, methinks.
So is there going to be another January event like last year where we can give the M’s front office more standing ovations?
What this trade does… is beg the question, “Who will catch these guys?” Dave, is the Johnson-Moore combo still a viable solution for 2010?
Another thing this trade does is sell tickets, and maybe maybe maybe the budget, whatever it is, inches up a little.
I am still mystified that Cliff Lee became available. Cliff Lee! And that the M’s got him for three middling prospects. Cliff Lee!
Z’s the man. If Shannon Drayer tweeted tomorrow that the M’s were in serious talks for David Wright, I’d believe it. (Albert Pujols, I wouldn’t believe. But Wright? Sure.) Zduriencik has made me a believer in his wheeling-and-dealing skills.
And in case it hasn’t become clear: Dude. Cliff Lee!
So is there going to be another January event like last year where we can give the M’s front office more standing ovations?
I’m hoping to announce this tomorrow.
Especially for how the deal came from
left fieldthe Booniesthin air into fruition, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if somehow Jack Z gets someone like, ah dunno, Pujols as a finaleAnd at that event, can someone ask how the M’s managed to insert themselves into the Halladay deal, and come out with Cliff Lee? (Dude; Cliff Lee!) I’m probably not going to be able to make it, but I’d love to know how they did that.
Methinks you’ll need a large venue.
Can we rent the convention center?
Let’s carry 11 pitchers!
Believe Pujols over Wright… there’s probably more reason for St. Louis to trade him (assuming Holliday falls through).
Speaking of Holliday… if the Cardinals best offer is $80MM/5years, SOMEone will beat it. $90/6 will come from somewhere, especially if Bay goes off the market. It’ll be interesting to see where Z goes from here… his options are virtually limitless after scoring Figgins and Lee for only $18MM out of 2010′s payroll.
A week ago, when I heard that the Ms were talking to the Padres about Gonzalez, I wrote it off. Managerial due diligence. The Ms don’t have the depth in their farm system. The Ms don’t have pieces the Padres need. The Padres can’t be convinced to part with Gonzalez any more than the Ms can with Hernandez. And so on.
After today, I believe Obi-Wan Zduriencik, ninja in a sweater-vest, could pull it off. There’s no reason to believe he couldn’t get a 3rd team involved and make it happen. And who knows what else he has cooking that no one has heard anything about yet?
Re: catcher… I’d expect the tandem to be Moore/Alfonzo right now.
Sorry, but I don’t think standing Os are going to be enough.
Would the Orioles do a Lopez for Scott trade?
The salaries are comparable, and Scott doesn’t have a spot in their crowded outfield. He’s a multi-million dollar super sub, which is not a great allocation of resources for them. Lopez would be an upgrade over Wigginton at third as well:
2009 Lopez: .272/.303/.463 wOBA .325 3B UZR/150 (sample size too small)
2009 Wigginton: .273/.314/.400 wOBA .311 3B UZR/150 -30.2
With the bat, Lopez and Wigginton are essentially the same guy except Lopez has more power – which in BAL would only get better. Defense, and budget is where this would make more sense for the O’s. Lopez would a be big upgrade on D (did I just say that?) and would be much cheaper than any of the FA options out there.
The neat thing about the way Jack is building our team this year is he left the two easiest postions to fill for last. Which is 1B and DH.
Last year he took care of the more difficult postions CF and SS. Then with this move he can cross SP of the list of things to do. What this does is buy him time to put together a package for an all-star 1B men. I believe there are maybe two available for the right price. Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez. How would they look in the middle of the line-up? If that move doesn’t go through he can easily find a 1B in the open market. And DH is the last thing he needs to look for. I am always a fan of using the DH as a “day off” for the regulars.
Anyway, am I way off base here? Does that seem possible to anyone else?
I know it would cost the farm, but it looks like he wants to win it all this year. Also adding one of those players would add another 5 wins to the total. If Dave is correct on his math, that move would bring us to 89 wins. Wow.
Just a thought.
Merry Christmas to all the Mariner Fans!!
CLIFF LEE
So if my math is correct, the M’s still have in the neighborhood of $8M to spend on free agents, right?
No, no, Jeff. Not CLIFF LEE! M*****F**ING C**** L**!
The price tag on Adrian Gonzales is apparently quite high – the Red Sox are going after him, and the Padres want Buchholz and Ellsbury in return.
Not sure if this has been asked yet, but for those with their ear to the ground, or for the number crunchers, is an ‘Erik Bedard as #3 SP’ even possible/desirable at this point? (Understandably, his image has been sullied here, but is the relationship beyond repair?)
Is Prince Fielder a realistic option? I love his bat, and think it is well worth the high price in players to get him. The question is, could he be realistically had?
This Lee trade sure does open up the imagination.
addendum: a HEALTHY Erik Bedard.
Seriously, that trio would rival anything out there (not that the top two are anything to sneeze at already!)…or am I half-baked?
I thought I remembered seeing that signing, but didn’t find it in a search. Must research Alfonzo.
Any deal involving Lopez would have to be with a team that notices that Safeco field just killed him.
His 2009 OPS on the road was .883, and only .641 at home.
If a potential trading partner thought that was a mirage, or didn’t notice it, then no deal.
Cliff Lee – AS THE NUMBER 2 !!
Felix, followed by Cliff Lee.
That is simply … awesome.
I’m firmly of the belief that the M’s really should pursue Nick Johnson to upgrade their 1B/DH depth chart. Injury risk he might be, he’s an OBP machine whose price in talent and money to acquire should be palatable. And the marginal wins added are just what the Ms need at this point in time.
Oh for heaven’s sakes… what’s wrong with Hyphen? He’s not flashy but he puts in his time, eats innings and induces ground balls, which with our defense will hoover anything up.
Earlier in the offseason, Dave, you advocated a high-variance strategy for the M’s. “Play the kids,” you said, “This team needs to take chances to contend.”
Is that strategy no longer operative, in your mind? Or do they need to play Tui and Saunders because of the potential upside they represent?
Dave, do you have any kind of feeling as to whether it’s realistic to hope an extension gets done?
Mariners just became the most dangerous team in a 5 game playoff series.
Rotation?
Felix
Lee
Rowland- Smith
Morrow
Snell
I didn’t even fathom that they could bring in Cliff Lee when I wrote that.
I am too busy sending people obnoxious text messages to analyze anything right now.
Cliff Freakin’ Lee.
5-man rotation in a series?
Well, I don’t think it’s a certainty that the owners will open the purse strings further. You’d certainly like them too, of course, and it’s clear Zduriencik would make good use of the money, but if the bids for some of the other big names get as crazy as they might, he may go looking for better values that don’t require that much.
And that goes for more than just money: it sounds like Moorad wouldn’t let the face of the Padres’ franchise go without a lot of talent in return, and I trust that Zduriencik won’t break the future no matter how much upside there is to winning in the present — especially when there are other options (for him, there seemingly always are: he’ll create them if necessary).
One interesting consideration is keeping something (money, prospects) in reserve for a difference-making move in July. If the team is in some kind of tight pennant race by mid-summer, a key piece then may be worth more (and actually cost less) than the equivalent right now.
And speaking of now, I expect things will go quiet for a little while here. We have the holidays upon us, and while there probably will be lots of phone calls going on among agents and GMs and players in and around the present-opening and candle-lighting and egg-nogging and whatnot, the PR depts are short-staffed and the lawyers are at the beach and nothing much formally gets done until everybody gets back. So unless they whip out something by Friday (with this crew, it’s possible) I’m going to relax until after the New Year.
Merry CliffLeemas everybody!
You know, there’s this big facility down by the Kingdome we’re fairly familiar with. A bit cold and drafty this time of the year but it’s got a lot of empty seats (and our joy will keep us warm).
For a 1B position, would Garrett Atkins be of interest? I realize last year was not one of his best, but his BABIP dropped by 0.75 points from the 4 year average prior to 2009. There could be a bounce back and it might be a good value pickup.
How nice would Adrian Beltre look on this club, if the whole Red Sox deal falls through.? So nice that the M’s are an attractive club for players to go to! All Hail Jack!
Nothing against our favorite Aussie (he can stay at #3). But is Bedard in the picture at all?
This trade does a lot of things, like give me hope, start me budgeting for trips to MSP (closest M’s games) and new M’s gear (voting with my wallet), and making me really look forward to the season (I’ve started a spring training countdown on my whiteboard, but that’s mostly to irritate the people counting down to Christmas).
But far and away the best thing this trade does for me is give me the opportunity to do a bit of surfing over at Halos Heaven and see THEM moaning, wringing their hands, dropping f-bombs everywhere, and calling THEIR front office idiots. The trade is a win right there, folks.
For a 1B position, would Garrett Atkins be of interest? I realize last year was not one of his best, but his BABIP dropped by 0.75 points from the 4 year average prior to 2009. There could be a bounce back and it might be a good value pickup.
That’s kinda what I thought.
I’m still high on Saunders, though I couldn’t tell you exactly why. I’m encouraged by his approach and his AAA numbers. I’m less enthused about Tui, and I think the M’s would be well-suited to find an upgrade at 2B or 3B, and trade Lopez.
Is a left-field improvement the M’s best strategy right now? Or is first base the easiest place to find a quality player? Or should we just kick back, and wait for Z to reveal his next unexpected masterstroke?
There’s rumors all over cyberspace involving this team or that team but not a mention of the M’s. Z keeps things close to the cuff until things about reach fruition then we get the news. For all we know he could be working a deal with anybody. I heard the Dodgers are scrapped for cash. Just a thought
I’m not Dave, but the answer I’d give is “way, way too early to tell, but odds are against it”.
A lot can change in a year though, so who really knows?
Oh, by the way: CLIFF FREAKIN’ LEE
I was thinking it was closer to $15m after the Johjima money. Did I miss something?
Sorry I meant to strapped for cash.
1B/DH are the likely upgrade candidates I’d imagine, and I’d be surprised if we didn’t get someone from outside the organization to fill at least one of those holes (Johnson, Branyan, Gonzalez).
I’m sure they’re looking at opportunities to improve at 2B/LF also, but a move at either of those spots would be a little more surprising.
But really, at this point, the Mariners could announce they’ve attached Ted Williams’ severed head to a cyborg body and signed him to a three year deal, and I’d just shrug.
I’d vote yes on that.
What Dave and Derek do here is very smart, very analytic moves; what Jack is doing is smart, anayltic AND creative. What he’s doing is as beyond the smart M’s blogosphere, as the smart Ms blogosphere is beyond the typical sports radio fan (no offense intended to Dave or Derek, but this was just great work by Jack).
Nah. Z invented a time machine and went back and picked up peak-level Sandy Koufax and Lou Gehrig.
Mariners just became the most dangerous team in a 5 game playoff series.
Wouldn’t a Beckett, Lester, Lackey, et al, at least equal our rotation? Carpenter, Wainwright and ’09 Piniero aren’t shabby either, assuming we were lucky enough to make their acquaintance next fall.
ps: remind me not to bring up Erik Bedard again in this hallowed forum
Now this is funny. . If only Tiger was that lucky! Thank goodness we know who Jack is!
Bedard is a free agent and according to the last account I heard won’t be healthy enough to pitch until sometime during the season. He’s a bit like Pedro was last year, but without the pedigree — a talented but risky arm who might make the difference for a team looking for a mid-season acquisition. I don’t really expect anybody will sign him this winter.
The one interesting FA pitcher (to me, not to the Mariners) out there right now is our good friend Joel Pineiro. Will he be able to keep up his groundballingest ways (especially away from Duncan’s tutelage?) He did himself no favors with his postseason appearance, but I think the teams with hitter-friendly parks (Rockies, White Sox, Brewers, maybe the Reds) should be willing to take a chance.
Yeah, what? With the way Fox has dragged them out with extra rest days, you don’t need anything like that many. The ALDS will go: Felix, Lee, RRS, Felix, nobody because you just won three.
The longer series are more interesting, but even there you’re not looking beyond 3 (on short rest) or 4 guys.
I would be surprised if they weren’t at least talking to the Padres about Gonzalez. Lopez, Morrow and another prospect enough? Seems comparable to what they are after. Anyone interesting out there to fill in our 2B hole if Lopez is dealt?
Great. Thanks for the mental picture. Now I have to go rinse out my brain.
Larry Stone thinks we’re in on Gonzalez.
this just off the presses. The Governor just hired Z to balance our state budget.
In her words, Governor Gregoire released the following: “What Jack Zduriencik has done for the Seattle Mariners in such a short time, turning them from a laughing stock in baseball to a top rate Major leage baseball team should be commended. I have all the faith that he could do the same for the State of Washington.”
Yeah, most of this is still extremely hard to accept. I keep waiting for something horrible to happen, such as Cliff Lee breaking his ankle after the press conference. I’m almost as excited about the 2010 seasons as I was following the 1995 season. In Z we trust.
Okay, I don’t want to be a wet blanket and I know you were trying to make a joke, but the “no politics” rule still applies.
According to Jack, Amaro approached him about Lee at the winter meetings. This deal may well have come about because Jack can keep his mouth shut about a deal until its done:
Obviously on a contingent deal like this being a leak free organization is a real asset, and the inability of the Phillies to openly shop Lee probably worked the the Mariners favor.
I’m sorry you took it in that context.
Filed under “things that don’t really matter when you’re having a Merry Cliffmas”, the ESPN poll on who wins the AL West currently plays out like this:
Angels 48%, Mariners 37%, Rangers 10%, Athletics 5%
Homers Washington, Oregon and Montana (but not Idaho?) are joined by the greater Massachusetts and New York eastern seaboard (including DE, RI & NJ) in giving the nod to the Mariners.
Texas votes to secede from the Union, and also for the Rangers to win the division.
I have this feeling Jack Z has an Adrian Gonzo or Prince Fielder trade brewing. He knows Lee is probably a one year player in Seattle and will want to take advantage of the Felix/Lee duo this year and try and win now.
So what is the super deal that could get us Gonzalez?
Lopez+Triunfel+Morrow+Fields+Carp, does that do it?
If we do that and sign Beltre to play 3rd, move Figgins to 2nd, is that a playoff team?
Re: Gonzalez or Fielder? I don’t think so. Why don’t I think so? Because that isn’t Z’s M.O.
The Zduriencik way is not to do the expected, but to do the totally unexpected. Gonzalez? Fielder? Harden? The media’s speculating about those things. Ergo, they’d be too expensive. Let’s go do something unexpected.
And yeah, the M’s organization’s ability to keep its mouth collectively shut was probably a prime motivator in the Cliff Lee deal. Good for them.
One name I think to watch is Joey Votto. The Reds have Yonder Alonzo down on the farm and he is supposed to be MLB ready. Both of them can’t play 1B at the same time.
Jack Z Park? Jack Z Stadiam ? screw safeco field name, as much as i like it, but it needs a new name now named after JACK Z!
Walt Jocketty’s response when asked if he would trade Votto this winter: “Oh God no.”
These last few days I feel like I’m constantly walking into a closet full of Henieken…
Thank you Jamie Moyer! In the Russakoff article defending the trade from the Phillies perspective is this quote:
I have always liked Moyer. If his $8 million extension is the straw that broke Amaro’s budget, forcing him to jettison Cliff Lee, Jamie is now my favorite ex Mariner.
Dave, I’m thinking just about anything is possible now. The Padres and Brewers also said they wouldn’t trade Gonzalez or Fielder but, their names keep coming up.
If you’re looking for a coal lining to this trade (or whatever is the opposite of silver-lining), maybe it’s that this deal encourages absurd rosterbation.
If somebody came on last week and said “Let’s deal Aumont, Gillies and J.C. Ramirez for Cliff Lee!!!1111″, they would have been laughed off the site and sent back to the Seattle P-I website.
Now, I feel free to say, hey, maybe we could deal Mike Carp and Josh Fields for Adam Dunn. Who’s to stop me?!
Henieken drinkers are in the closet now? I guess with the gay folks out there’s room in there now for the Dutch.
Nice call on Votto johnfree63. I hadn’t even thought of that. Either him or Alonzo would look nice in an M’s uni.
I, USSMariner.com contributor, along with my fellow readers, do solemnly vow to clothe, feed and nurture the as-yet-unnamed lovechild of Jack Zduriencik and Cliff Lee.
I will teach it the way it should go, as Whitey Herzog did teach the ’85 Cardinals. I will not speak of Carlos Silva within earshot of the child unless I precede it with profanities like ‘Bavasi’ or “Heathcliff”.
These things I do solemnly swear, unless St. Cameron convinces me otherwise.
No, no, no… He refers to the Heineken commericial where a bunch of ladies are ooohing and aaahing about a large closet of clothes. Then suddenly they head a bunch of men screaming and they stop. Camera head to the guys where they enter their closet filled with Heineken and they’re screaming like girls.
Any thoughts about about how Gonzalez would adjust to the AL? I’d be worried about that.
Also, I fully expect that Z’s list contains people I’m not even thinking about, and who will make my jaw drop.
The last couple of years have put us in the minds of players around the league that we’re serious, and as far as the AL goes, other than NY and Boston, why not come here?
It’s nice to be able to sit back and watch things unfold without freaking out every time you hear your name mentioned and thinking “Who stole from us this time?”
Day 3 after Lee Rumors and im still in La La land. ITS Z’S WORLD NOW, Cant beleive we finally have a GM with a BRIAN!! WHOA WHOO!
Maybe he’s secretly still a Mariner?
BREAKING NEWS!! Jason Bay is in Seattle right now, yeah i know its the holidays he could be visting family BUT his in JACKS Z WORLD now you never know what might happen
[Hi! Posting the same thing twelve times is a good way to get yourself in the mod queue or worse.]
Also: I’ve seen the commercial. I caught the reference. To reference another: that wasn’t where he was going with it, but that’s where I went.
More love for Jack Z and the Mariners.
Favorite quote: “When he got hired, there was some pessimism,” Dave Cameron said. “He’s bald, he’s a scout – he looked like the Bavasi template for a GM…”
Fair enough. My sarcasm/joke radar is so broken that it would take hitting me over the head with a 2×4 for me to get the majority of things.
Anything (trade-wise) is possible, but not necessarily desirable. I’m sure we can get Gonzalez, but I’m also sure the price would be very, very high. The good news is that if the Red Sox get him, both the Padres AND the Mariners will make sure the price is very, very high.
Listening to the Sports Guy podcast and he just went off a little on the trade. He said he’s in an AL keeper league so he knows about prospects, and he’s looked at this from every angle, and he can’t believe we got Lee for nothing.
I know no one cares, but it sure is nice to be in a positive sense for a change.
Well, we underpaid, but “nothing” is an exaggeration.
The three guys we gave up are all “good but not great” prospects.
Any thoughts on Johnny Damon?
No.
I don’t see how this team improves without a big bat. Last year we had the fourh worst run differential at minus 52. We were lucky to be above .500 with all the one run wins. Washburn had a great year for us last year and I only hope Lee can match it. Felix and Ichiro had great years. They won’t be easy to match. Our lineup is still pathetic. Lee had a 6.29 era in 2007, a 5.43 era in 2004 and a 4.40 era in 2006. He’s no given. 3 of the past 6 six years have been mediocre at best. Our 3-5 starters are unproven. I could easily see this as a 75 win team.
Well stated.
Ryan Doumit! Dave hit on him a while ago and now he makes even more sense. He can’t be any worse then Johnson behind the plate and he can actually hit and from the left side to boot. Some 1st base and a little left field and the M’s would add 1.5 maybe 2 wins right there.
What on earth about his skillset would make you worried about that?
I felt this message pretty much like.. “Angels get ready, we are going to war!”
Gonzales, Votto, and Fielder are just pipe dreams. All three would take a massive package of prospects to land. Word is Boston is offering Bucholz and Ellsbury for Gonzales, who are the Mariners going to offer to top that?
We would be talking at least 2 of Morrow, Triunfel, Moore, Lopez and then some throw-ins for any of the three. Fielder would be the cheapest of the three because he is making the most, but if Boston can’t land Gonzales they would be in the market for Fielder, assuming the Brewers are even interested in moving him.
I doubt it’s the skillset so much as the Cirillo/Aurillia hangover.
Dave, I agree that the calculations have changed. And here are some more subtle changes:
The budget cap (whatever it was) just increased.
Silva’s days are even more numbered.
Nick Johnson is more likely to get a second year.
Russ Branyan definitely will not be our first baseman.
The M’s are more likely to carry 11 pitchers instead of 12, or carry only one of Hall/Hannahan.
It is now conceivable that the M’s will carry another DH only type. For instance, Vlad Guererro.
Touche. And funny you say that, because right after I posted it I told my cube mate that very thing.
But like, most people should be able to figure out he’s not Cirillo/Aurillia… right?
(maybe it was the double l’s?)
We’re already worrying about how Gonzalez would adjust to the AL? I know the ambrosia taps are on free-flow right now, but simmer down folks.
We have a long ways to go before that bridge needs crossing.
Anyone else remember when Harden was Zduriencik’s first “mistake”?
He’s getting old (34 next season), he’s expensive ($14M/yr), and he is starting to have some injury issues.
But he hits from both sides of the plate, he is a walk machine, and if the M’s want to spend the cash, if he would agree to the trade (he’s a 5-10 guy), and his team is looking to dump salary, say hello to 1B/DH LANCE BERKMAN.
There are any number of reasons why this can’t and won’t happen. Maybe people who know more about it know that Berkman might not be all that good anymore. But my gosh, CLIFF LEE(!) makes the idea of Berkman not quite as nuts as it was yesterday.
If Jack Z can get Cliff Lee for three minor leaguers, I’m beginning to think anything is possible.
Morrow, Saunders, and Triunfel. But I doubt JZ would do that. But it could be done.
Yes, it’s the hangover, plus it seems like every time someone comes from the NL to the AL they struggle.
yea, I know this is based on no statistical analysis. I fully expect to get flayed.
Would anyone be opposed to bringing Endy Chavez back? He could play left and bat 9th. We could then be the go-go M’s. Imagine the innings when you would have Chavez 9th, Ichiro 1st and Figgins 2nd all coming up to bat.
I wondered when The Impaler would be mentioned. Can you imagine a worse offseason for the Halos…I mean, even worse than right now *snicker*?
Order of Dream Scenarios of filling out the line-up:
1)
1B Trade for Adam Dunn – Fits everything we lack. LH Power, High OPS. This would probably take Carp, Saunders and a Shawn Kelly Type.
3B – Trade Lopez for Alex Gordon – Trade due to extreem low value now. Left hander, and they traded for Josh Fields. The Royals is where every ex-Mariner goes.
LF – Sign Jason Bay
2)
1B: sign Nick Johnson/Adam LaRoche
3B: re-sign Beltre
LF: trade Lopez + package for Carl Crawford
Which one is better, 1 or #2?
Whats Yours?
Red Sox were reportedly offered Gonzalez for Buchholz and one of their other two top-3 prospects. They turned this down.
I would think this sets the bar for Gonzalez negotiations… say, Morrow + Triunfel + Prospect X, where Mr. X is just about any minor leaguer not named Saunders/Fields?/Ackley.
Furthermore, this sets the bar for more-expensive/fat/defensively-challenged/soon-to-be-a-DH/etc Prince Fielder. Fielder can’t cost more than Gonzo, the Brewers covet Morrow, Boston’s not (likely) working on trying to get him when they’re focused on Gonzalez, and Zduriencik has relationships to fall back on there.
I haven’t seen any non-fanblog speculation on a Fielder move yet. I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s what Z is working on behind the scenes… the only reasons we might see this one coming would be because of the MIL connection, the prior known discussions with MIL for Morrow, and our realization that the impossible is not (impossible) with Zduriencik.
—
I’d rather see Gonzo in a Mariners uniform than Fielder, but either would be great. And Fielder is probably slightly more likely. More likely still is some tangent we STILL can’t imagine…
Let me just add: CLIFF LEE (!)
Stone just tweeted to expect a new deal with Langerhans. Any chance he’d be offered anything other than a minor league deal with a spring training invite?
How about we let Dave or DMZ do a revised look at the 2010 roster with these moves and the remaining dollars and then just sit back to see what Dr Z does?
While Dr Z’s shown that he can do just about anything, how about we stop the rosterbating now? He’s also shown that we’ll never have a clue what he’s doing until it’s been all but done.
I don’t know. It seems to me that fat guys are always one bad buffet experience away from being an unmovable contract.
The Jack Zduriencik entry at Wikipedia is in dire need of updating.
Anything less than 2 Perfect Games to start the 2010 season and a sweep of the Phillies at the end may have half of this forum on suicide watch!
How about the Flash? Jack Flash? As in Jumpin’ Jack Flash it’s a gas! gas! gas!
If the Mariners need an outfielder in the middle of the summer and feel his knee has healed fully that he can still be the same kind of player he was last year, he might be a guy they’d have interest in.
Can you imagine Silva and Fielder fighting over the chicken wings at the post-game buffet? Yikes!
But now all the ridiculous common-fan trade offers sound so much less ridiculous with Zduriencik. We just traded a AA reliever, a high-A outfielder and a high-A pitcher for an Ace. I realize there’s more to it than that, but, WOW. What else is there to say. Unbelievable.
Prince Fielder, Adam Dunn, Justin Verlander, etc., etc. The rosterbation possibilities are endless. And they’re possible, too!
I’m gonna go blind!
Count Zduriencik
I like the Fielder talk but I am leery of the body by Silva type players. If you look at Mo Vaughn and even his father Cecil they fell off the map pretty significantly after 32. Most players decline but they fell off the map. Prince is 25 so it is no big deal now but just a thought.
Hmm, I don’t know about everyone else, but I’m pretty happy with just having a GM with a “BRAIN”.
@TumwaterMike:
I think that’s too easy. How about we give him something really challenging, such as Program Manager for the Dreamliner?
Oh god. I haven’t laughed that hard since “Ichiro Figgins” and “Cupid Brother Tucker”.
If we had both Fielder and Silva on the team, would the M’s need an extra plane for road games?
Very funny. But rosterbation doesn’t cause blindness, just unemployment.
I rosterbate twice a day, it’s healthy.
Sooo. . . you’re saying it’s totally worth it?
Now I have to reconsider the meaning of your username.
Agreed. And while we’re at it, let’s add Bay and Holliday to the list.
Dave has talked about Z having ‘a plan’. But obviously, the plan either changes or is flexible enough to accommodate unforeseen opportunities like Cliff Lee.
One thing he hasn’t shown so far is the willingness to pay full price for anything. And the other is not to fully mortgage the future for today.
So Dave may be right that the calculus has changed with the new acquisitions, but it would be surprising if the methodology has, too.
I agree that there is no package we could put together for Gonzalez that would match the perceptual value of names like Buchholz and Ellsbury. If Prince Fielder were in play, I’d assume the same thing would apply.
And I remain fully supportive of Saunders in left. Fix first base. If there’s a way to flip Jose Lopez so that Felipe Lopez is signed and winds up playing second, do that. And what about yet another starter–Ben Sheets at a discount? Wang?
Let’s just stay away from the Bavasi approach of paying–or overpaying–for ‘names’.
Daredevil, the man without fear.
I’m afraid that Prince Fielder would be the second coming of Kevin Mitchell….
IMO, you really can’t talk about not overpaying for names and then start dropping Sheets and Wang in the next sentence.
The problem with ‘names’ is that in the upper tiers, those names exist because of the talent behind them. If we were avoiding names for the sake of avoiding names, Cliff Lee and Chone Figgins wouldn’t be Mariners.
Fielder, Gonzalez, Bay, and Holliday *may* be pipe dreams under normal circumstances. But I refuse to write them off, or accept the argument that we should pretend they don’t exist. They *do* exist, *are* available at some price, and *would* make a difference. Does that mean we will get them? Of course not… but we have a GM who can pull off incredible deals.
It may not be possible to get *most* of the four in here at an affordable cost… but I wouldn’t be surprised if Z found leverage in ONE of those four situations that made it possible.
Would we need to add seismic stability to Safeco field in case they both are playing and there is a bunt down the first base line? What about the added cost in laundry detergent? Do they make a camera with a wide enough lens to get them both in the team photo?
Okay enough fat jokes…. Fielder is a pipe dream, M’s have 8 to 9 Mil left to work with this off season and potentially 3 positions to fill, it looks to me like we are going to be playing at least one youngster somewhere.
Can you imagine Silva and Fielder fighting over the chicken wings at the post-game buffet?
No – last I heard, Fielder was vegetarian.
People are getting a bit ahead of themselves here insofar as expecting a lot else to happen this winter. Believe me, I’m happy with what Jack has done, and very little he might do would surprise me, but I would be pretty happy at this point with some decent/solid moves. Expecting Jack to fill out the roster like a roto team probably won’t meet with success. Once we’re free of the Silva albatross and get to draft some players other than relief pitchers, though, we might be able to amp up the expectations a bit. So far, he’s been masterful.
Adam LaRoche?
It is in Wiki so it has to be true. Snippet about Kevin Mitchell.
“Traded to the Mariners after the 1991 season, he arrived at spring training the following year 30 pounds overweight.”
Not sure if Even Silva can beat 30 pounds. That is all day on the couch with a Mainline drip of Eggnog and Krispy Kreme Doughnuts.
Not that I expect it to happen, but I like what someone mentioned above about Alex Gordon. Nice buy low candidate. I doubt it’d take very much to get him, either.
I guess I didn’t make myself clear. I have no problem with signing anyone…as long as we’re not overpaying and they can clearly make our team better. Because they’re the most mentioned people in a limited market, of course Boston or New York money is going to be needed for Bay or Holliday (even if it’s paid by someone else). I say that’s a mistake.
That’s also why I prefaced Sheets with ‘at a discount’. And Wang may scare away suitors because of last year’s injury.
Is it me or does it feel like Jackie Z is driving down I-5 in a Ferrari F-40 and Bavasi was sitting on the side of the road with a hammer and chisel making a wheel out of granite.
What if during the Lee/Halladay deal there were talks of “Look there is no way Billy Beene will trade me Brett Wallace. Get em for me, well keep talkin, and Ill tell Morrow to go get one of those new licenses or a passport as a starter.”
Wallace bats Left and we need a 1b which hes supposed to become….I dont know if Im crazy. Not very good at making this stuff up. Im just making my own Jack Z next move hypothesis to see if I can be the one to call it.
Personally, if the M’s can just add Scott and Doumit, I’ll consider this a well-rounded offseason; but given the track record our stealth bomber of a GM has compiled so far, I’ll happily admit that he might have something better up his sleeve.
Man this thread is brutal!
lombardie360, you did register that Beane dealt Wallace to Toronto for one of the players they got from Philly, right?
I do like the fact that Angels blogs are calling it Black Monday given the pitching avalanche that ensued. It’s gonna be a fun year.
I didn’t buy into Dave’s Luke Scott thinking before Lee came along, but now it makes all kinds of sense. I really think that’s the direction we’ll end up going in left. Not necessarily Scott himself, but a proven bat and most likely left-handed. I just don’t see the M’s going with two rookies in the lineup.
On another note… I haven’t heard too much about it, but has anyone looked at Holliday’s home/away splits? If you just look at his away numbers, he’s a totally different player. And not one that you’d ever consider giving $15-20MM.
Mr. Snow,
Prince treats.
I had a thought after reading Z’s account of the trade this afternoon, and that is that we owe some thanks to Amaro, who did a favor frankly by trading Lee to us. Obviously he feels comfortable dealing with Jack, but he could have easily traded to Lee to another organization. Especially when you consider that what we gave was not off the charts by any means. He could have done this deal with someone else. Thank God he did it with Seattle.
A bit of that may have to do with Gillick and Looper’s influence in Philly as well.
I agree completely. He could have very easily pulled out after he had the agreement with Toronto. He didn’t need us. I’m sure he was tempted, but integrity and his reputation were probably considerations. I was very worried when I heard that Drabek was in and none of our guys were going to Toronto.
@Ancient Mariner
Yes I know. what Im saying is since Beane wouldnt deal him to us, Jack told the Blue Jays hey get Wallace for me since Billy boy will never let me have him. Get it? (And I in no way mean that to be rude.)
Definitely a guy to consider. A pretty solid player, wouldn’t cost the M’s a draft pick, certainly would be better than what we have now.
He’s not going to come cheap from K.C. They need all the good, cheap players they can get right now, and he holds quite a bit of promise to break out. He’s the exact kind of player they would want to keep around right now.
Ehh, no.
If Baker (and Langerhans) are to be believed, the M’s have approached LaRoche.
Yeah, I probably underestimated his perceived value to KC. But it seemed like they soured on him quite a bit last year, and between the trade for Fields and Billy Butler’s presence, it seems like they have other priorities on the corners.
A permanent move to 1B would probably do him a lot of good, since his glove at 3B doesn’t seem up to it. But I’m veering way off topic now, so I’ll stop.
All this talk about Doumit, I just want to throw this out there and you can take it or leave it. Last week at work one of the Pittsburgh Pirates showed up at work (I saw his union card… pretty cool, lol) and apprently Ryan isn’t a very good catcher, and doesn’t WANT to catch. They’re converting him to a RF.
In other news: what do we think about D. Lee if the Cubbies pick up part of that contract and he waives the no trade clause (and the Red Sea parts…).
Thank you for all the great perspective from Dave and DMZ. I am happy to see all the national exposure you have earned in the last two weeks. I promise I will start donating as soon as I can.
This really makes me likely to attend more games next season (9 last year). Who knows what move will happen next, but I am sure it will improve the team.
If some of Jr.’s incentives are based on ticket sales, how much is he likely to benefit from Lee and Figgins – both in $ and wins?
It’s not news that Doumit isn’t a very good catcher. The point is, he could catch at need, which would make him a very useful player to have on the roster.
Since the Jays are trying to move Overbay I can see the M’s getting him basically for his 7M contract. He’s be better than Capp with the bat and glove, is left-handed with an .800 OPS. He sucks vs lefties but has a .380+ OB% vs righties as is a nice fit for the new mariners with OB% and plus defense.
This understanding that the better options of Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder are not at all likely.
I would rather have Overbay for one year at 7M and than 2 years Branyon or Johnson at 6M a year who are weak with the glove and are extremely fragile.
He scared me more when he was healthy. Did you see the first couple of innings of that Fox Saturday game when he gave up 8 runs to Cleveland in the first couple of innings? No thanks.
If memory serves that was his last, or second to last start, before his DL stint. I saw that too and it was horrifying. But seeing what he did in years before he’s got talent. I still wouldn’t want to have him.
@lombardie360
Helpful hint – and I don’t know any other way to say this without being blunt. If you’re going to start hypothesizing, it helps if you start with a bit of base knowledge before throwing out ideas. Otherwise you end up exposing your lack of preparation.
So, why would you hypothesize that Beane would be unwilling to trade Wallace to the Mariners? Beane is well known to be willing to talk with any team about any player.
I loved this little throw away note from Geoff Baker: “For nearly a year, Trader Jack had talked with Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos about landing Halladay for the Mariners.”
Maybe I shouldn’t be so geeked about stuff like this, but any word on a press conference?
I do enjoy seeing the new players slip on the uni and hat. This time there is extra intrigue, as I’m curious to see his body language and words after all the stuff in the press. Oh, and that he’s really awesome, too.
He seemed to really want to stay in Philly, but I’m sure he’ll move past that and fall in love with our little slice of America.