Your current depth chart for the 2010 M’s they have Cliff Lee now
Pitching
SP-R Felix Hernandez
SP-L Cliff Lee. That’s not a typo. They really traded for Cliff Lee.
SP-L Ryan Rowland-Smith
SP-R Brandon Morrow
(one of:
SP-R Ian Snell
SP-R Carlos Silva
SP-R Doug Fister
SP-R Yusmeiro Petit)
RP-R David Aardsma
RP-R Mark Lowe
RP-R Shawn Kelley
RP-R Sean White
RP-L Jason Vargas
RP-L Garrett Olson
RP-L Luke French (?)
RP-R Kanekoa Texeira
It looks like Carlos Silva’s moving into the vacated Miguel Batista vastly overpaid mop-up guy. Unfortunately, the team’s still looking for a guy to call “Doc” and “Prof” now that their distinguished author is gone.
There’s also been a little talk about going with an 11-man pitching staff. I’m with Dave on this: I’ll believe it when they start the season with one.
Position players
C-R Rob Johnson
C-R Adam Moore
1B-L Mike Carp
2B-R Jose Lopez
SS-R Jack Wilson
3B-B Chone Figgins
LF-L Michael Saunders
CF-R Franklin Gutierrez
RF-L Ichiro!
DH-L Ken Griffey Jr.
UT-R Bill Hall (IF/OF-R? OF-R?)
IF-L Jack Hannahan
.. and then they’re still looking for someone else.
Now I’d like to think that right now they’re calling the agents of the ninety 1B/DH guys left on the market and trying to get someone to jump early (Nick Johnson, if you could just wander by Seattle and hang out for a week, we’ll pay for the airfare and promise you’ll like the city). But the front office is probably looking at the roster right now and thinking “We should go snag another ace starter while everyone’s still shaken up, and there’ll be bats to play off against each other when we’re back.” Or something even more surprising.
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Not sure if this would change your DC up or not.
Larry Stone tweeted that they will have a new deal for Langerhans.
I won’t even believe it then. Due to typical April schedules with lots of off-days, starting the season with 11 pitchers, then expanding to 12 later on, is not uncommon. You’d have to make it to May to convince me.
Call up Philly, see what they want for Halladay.
My guess is that, since Langerhans was non-tendered and initially refused a minor league assignment, that he checked the market for his services and then agreed to a minor league deal. I suppose it is possible, but I doubt he’ll even be added to the 40-man roster at this point.
I guess on a similar (minor league) note, what about Eliezer Alfonzo? Or is Johnson recovering fast enough that he doesn’t enter the depth chart?
I am anxious for the other shoe to drop. Dave tweeted last night that Silva could be on his way out, as Lee brings the 40-man to 39 with two position players still left to fill. Thoughts?
I think Dave miscalculated, J.C. Ramirez came off as part of the trade, so the roster is still at 38.
Unless I’m mistaken the roster is still at 38. JC Rameriz was on it and should be off now. It would have been a 1 for 1 swap on the roster, Lee for Rameriz.
I’m in favor of letting Morrow, Snell, Silva, et al. compete for the 4/5 slots in the rotation. I wouldn’t cry a lick if Snell and Silva looked good (for them) in sprting training and Morrow was sent to AAA for a few months to continue his development of his secondary pitches in a low-pressure environment.
Dave tweeted earlier that Silva may be on his way out given that the 40-man roster is currently at 39 and there’s two spots left to fill. Would his release be the most likely solution if they needed to add another player?
(Roster linked here only lists 38 players though, even with the new addition)
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Ichiro! Figgins is easily the best leadoff hitter ever made. Thanks GM Zack.
What’s up? Is Jack sick? There hasn’t been any earth-shattering news for like 24 hours or something. Why hasn’t he signed that Ted Williams cyborg yet?
I assume they’ve already got twenty clones each of Ichiro!, Felix, and Death to Flying things on the way to restock the farm system after they trade for Pujols, Lincecum, Greinke, and Mauer. (Interesting – those four will fit on the team really well… What a pitching staff!)
Z invents time machine, brings back a 27 year old Ken Griffey Junior to knock in the Ichiro! Figgins hybrid. Lock it up.
You look at our line-up and you think…Wow, we could do something with that! And then you see something like this:
When was the last time you saw the M’s mentioned as PLAYOFF CONTENDERS?!?!
How sweet it is!
Amidst all the incredible excitement (I can hardly contain myself in public!) I am wondering what anyone knows about the likelihood of Russell Branyan coming back. I like Branyan, but I also like Nick Johnson. Anyone?
That is another really great aspect to the acquisition, it is one that fans, “analysts” and sabermetricians can all agree on. Doesn’t get any better than that.
Uh, that indeed WAS a typo. As Dave said, it’s CLIFF $%^@& LEE!
Assuming Snell makes the most of the fifth-starter spot, what do you think the chances of Silva/Fister/Petit are for making the bullpen and who would you dump form the current projection to make room for one or all of them? I’d like to think Petit could be an effective long reliever.
Conversely, any chance French shows up strong enough to go with a three-lefty rotation out fo the five hole?
Cliff Lee? OMG I thought it was Brenda Lee.
For those wondering, the roster above takes up about $85 million in payroll. So, the M’s have somewhere between $10 and $15 million left to spend, assuming they keep the budget about what it was a year ago.
So we sign and bring Beltre back for 1 more year for around 8 mil that still gives us about 7 mil to play with.
So, with this assumption can we finally put the Jason Bay yearnings to bed?
[ot]
Cliff Lee? OMG I thought it was Brenda Lee.
He officially has to use Radar Love as his theme song.
Wow. Uh, wow. Phew. I could wake up tomorrow and hear that the M’s pulled a deal for Zach Greinke and not be surprised. (It’s Dayton Moore. And the M’s have parts that would excite the Royals. Go do it, Z! (And yes, I’m kidding.))
With what the M’s have on hand, an 11 man pitching staff sounds like an excellent idea.
On a related note: Brandon Morrow’s shown that he could be effective as a short reliever. Obviously, if he can make it as a 4th starter, the M’s should do that. However, it’s entirely possible that the M’s slide him back into the bullpen. If they’re competing for the division, then those high-leverage late innings that he’d throw could be more important.
Sliding Morrow back to the bullpen except in an exceptional circumstance would be a huge mistake. He needs to be a full time starter.
Coming to a ballpark near you “the Greet Jack Zudini.” He will amaze you with his slight of hands. Right before your eyes he will change a once struggling franchise into a playoff contender. General Managers cringe at the thought of doing business with him but are overcome with his steely eyes.
A possible scenario between Zudini and Mozeliak:
Z: Hey John how about you trade that Albert Pujols guy to us for Jamie burke. Burke’s a real good guy and would be good in the dugout for you.
M: But you don’t have Jamie Burke any more?
Z: That’s OK I can get him for you. Plus I’ll throw in Mike Sweeney for nothing.
M: OK then, its a deal (completely mesmerized by Z’s eyes and blinded by the glare off his head ala Jay Buhner).
Boston’s interest in Beltre rests on their ability to trade Lowell and his thumb. If the Rangers move forward with the Lowell trade expect Beltre in Boston next season. I would strongly doubt that Beltre would sign a sweetheart one year contract in Seattle as he is a Boras client and rejected arbitration that would have be around 12 mil. It’s going to take multi year and 9+ mil to resign Beltre, not that he isn’t worth it, just this move would rule out any other major changes to DH or SP.
I personally would rather see the M’s sign a few more inexpensive 1 year contract players this season and leave some flexibility in payroll going into and beyond 2010 when the final Bavasi boat anchor clears.
Thats good to know, I thought they had less. This means they can still make a run at a Nick Johnson with perhaps enough room left over for a Luke Scott or Branyan.
For what it’s worth, from ESPN…
I agree about1B/DH; it is buyer’s market, so I hope that, at least for the next few weeks, Jack Z holds out one of the better guys out there.
Spring Training will answer questions here.
I hope they just have Langerhaans on minor league deal. It doesn’t make sense to me to spend a 40-man roster spot on him at this time.
I think Adam Moore might develop better with more time in Tacoma, so Alfonzo might be on the Opening Day roster.
Among the 4th/5th starters, I am holding out hope for Snell finding himself. As for Silva, him being struck by a meteor is our only shot at salvation.
Don’t you think he’s been messed with enough already?
With apologies (and copyright acknowlegment) to Billy McSweeney and Teddy Wayne:
The Babe Ruth trade as engineered by Jack Zduriencik:
Original Trade: Boston Red Sox trade Babe Ruth to the New York Yankees for $125,000 (1920).
Zduriencik Trade: Red Sox also acquire rights to high-school star Lou Gehrig, California kindergartner Joe DiMaggio, and unborn son of semipro player and zinc miner Mutt Mantle; as part of three-way deal.
I’m not so sure. He certainly has more upside as a starter, but I don’t think that “exceptional circumstances” would mandate that we think of him exclusively as a starter.
Right now, Lookout Landing has Morrow as a 1 WAR starter. That’s a midpoint projection. An elite reliever can be worth up to 2 WAR. Morrow as a reliever isn’t quite elite, but certainly is well above average. Considering the higher leverage of the innings he’s throwing, a move of Morrow to the bullpen could be a net bonus for the M’s.
That’s contingent on a couple of things, however:
(1) The M’s have one or two non-Morrow starters come out of spring training and blow their socks off to secure the 4/5 spots in the rotation.
(2) Morrow doesn’t suddenly find himself and become an average (or better) starting pitcher.
I don’t think it’s the best-case scenario. However, I don’t think it’s entirely unlikely, either.
Now let’s grab Nick Johnson and Beltre and trade trade Lopez for prospects… maybe grab Luke Scott.
In Z we trust!
“Now let’s grab Nick Johnson and Beltre and trade trade Lopez for prospects… maybe grab Luke Scott.”
Can we afford both Nick Johnson AND Beltre and if we traded Lopez in a JJ-type deal, wouldn’t that take care of the holes that Johnson and/or Beltre would have filled? That kinda seems like belt and suspenders to me.
The oft-overlooked yet incredibly important trait of a really savvy trader/negotiator is this: patience. No jumping prematurely at deals before they ripen; no doing deals just because “something” has to be done. So I wouldn’t be surprised if we hit a lull now (especially with the holidays hard upon us) and then, just when we’ve started to think all the sturm und drang is done, we’ll wake up to find another shiny toy under that M’smas tree.
They really shouldn’t. Everybody who has dealt with him has got what they wanted. (The Mets may not have liked what they got in Putz, but he was what they wanted and they did get him. Plus, who cares if Minaya feels burned — he’s not long for the ranks of GMdom anyway).
Unfortunately, Jose doesn’t look as good if you move him to 1B — his bat is more impressive at 2B. It’s true there’s no lack of replacement second basemen available, but the real question is whether Lopez plus one of the available 2Bs nets you more WAR for your $ than Lopez plus one of the available 1Bs.
You also might want a little bit of room just in case you find yourself in a pennant fight at the trading deadline and an interesting player (and his salary) becomes available.
Yes! Exactly! Just because we have 10 to 15 million available doesn’t mean we need to spend it all and force our hand in July or August. What if Figgins or Lee end up on the DL (knock on wood) and we need to pick up a salary dump player from a non-contender (Pat Burrell in TB comes to mind). This offseason has shown that payroll flexibility is king right now, I am sure Z is keeping that in mind as well.
While my comment was more me dreaming than anything else, technically we could. As Dave said,
Especially considering 1B/DH seems to be a buyers market.
Earlier in these comments, Sidi suggested that Cliff Lee use “Radar Love” as his entrance music.
As much as I love Golden Earring, I think a better choice would be “Lee” by Tenacious D. I’ve been singing it since the trade became official.
Leave the swear words in, Safeco DJs…it’s f’ing LEE!
Meanwhile…a question: If not Nick Johnson, who should be next on the short/shopping list?
Can someone explain something about Cliff Lee’s Wins?
You would think that Cliff Lee can give you about 18 wins as a pitcher, while the guys that previously would have gotten his starts would give you about 8 wins. Doesn’t that make Lee a 10 Win upgrade.
I know there is something I am just not getting.
Hey how about the M’s pick up Eric Hinske as a 1B/LF swingman? Sure, he may not have the pop of a Nick Johnson or a Branyan, but he has something else: he’s been on three different teams over the past three years, and every one of them has gone to the World Series. And two of those three won! He’s the lucky rabbit foot of MLB!
Though maybe this ineffable “intangible” of his doesn’t work outside the AL East.
Our lineup is horrible. Bottom three in runs scored for sure unless we pick up some real bats.
Why is everyone so convinced we need a “real” (read=power) bats to be successful? We’re going to give up among, if not the fewest runs in the AL this year, so we really don;’ need to kill everyone by 10 with homers to be a great team. 2-1 or 20-1, a win is a win.
Nope. The team has decided that all hitters go to the plate with Fungoes next season. No real bats for you!
What we need is an average offense. Average offense with world class defense and above average pitching means contender.
They are talking about the WAR stat, which is much more reliable the ‘pitcher wins’.
Your example might be correct, but how many wins does the bullpen save in your senario? You can’t tell that.
Bottom line is, go look up the WAR stat and understand it, then you will have your answer.
Mo powah!!!! Yes, it would be nice to have more offense. Last I checked, the season doesn’t start tomorrow, so there’s a good chance the Mariners aren’t quite finished adding bats to the lineup. That’s just a guess, though.
Meanwhile, you might want to read this and this and this.
WAR is not the pitching Wins stat.
I am still concerned about Morrow… If his head is on right (and can throw some off speed)- he could be a real gem. If he is a mess like last year, he could be a real weak link. Well not as weak as Silva…
General Managers cringe at the thought of doing business with him
My comment was tongue-in-cheek.
snowsk8,
Why are you worried about Morrow?
He’s a great upside-guy earning little cash while not being relied upon to pitch in any high-leverage role.
Doesn’t sound like a problem to me.
You’re mistaking a Win/Loss record as only achieved by the pitcher, when in fact any win he garners also has, to an extent, offensive contribution. (A pitcher cannot win a game in which his offense scores no runs.) And unless the only way to get a hitter out is via the strikeout, the pitcher is not responsbile for outs recorded in the field. Every ball in play is fielded by a defense; a good defense can inflate win totals, and a bad one can deflate same.
Think Zack Greinke. Great pitcher throwing for a meh team, but is any other pitcher on that team gonna earn wins like he did? Now put Zack Greinke in Seattle…he’s suddenly a 20+ game winner, right? Same pitcher, different team.
What we’re talking about Lee as being a “five-win” upgrade is looking at his underlying stats–how many strikes he throws, groundballs (easier to record outs than flyballs), how few walks–and saying, all things being equal (an average defense and an average offense on both teams in the field) what he as a pitcher will contribute to a team.
WAR is a stat that measures how many wins a player contributes to the teams overall total. If everyone on a major league team was a league-minimum, just out of AAA, non-superstar talent rookie, that team would win about 48 games. Lee replacing just one pitcher on that roster gives you five more wins, making a five-win upgrade, even if he wins 18 games that season.
Oh I think Morrow has huge upside… when he is on he is fantastic. When he is off he is a disaster! Bavasi screwed him up, and I hope things get better for him. I would like to see some consistent performance.
General Managers cringe at the thought of doing business with him
The serious answer to an obvious t-i-c statement gave me a good belly laugh!
Doug Fister is not an option to start. He is the last guy on the starter list who would be considered and he is probably behind Vargas and French as well. After watching Fister try to get through a lineup the second and third time particularly the second time he faced a team I would think everyone would have learned that. He just does not have the stuff to get even an average hitter out more than once on a consistent basis. He could do very well as a multiple inning middle reliever though.
You’re mistaking a Win/Loss record as only achieved by the pitcher, when in fact any win he garners also has, to an extent, offensive contribution. (A pitcher cannot win a game in which his offense scores no runs.) And unless the only way to get a hitter out is via the strikeout, the pitcher is not responsbile for outs recorded in the field. Every ball in play is fielded by a defense; a good defense can inflate win totals, and a bad one can deflate same.
Think Zack Greinke. Great pitcher throwing for a meh team, but is any other pitcher on that team gonna earn wins like he did? Now put Zack Greinke in Seattle…he’s suddenly a 20+ game winner, right? Same pitcher, different team.
What we’re talking about Lee as being a “five-win” upgrade is looking at his underlying stats–how many strikes he throws, groundballs (easier to record outs than flyballs), how few walks–and saying, all things being equal (an average defense and an average offense on both teams in the field) what he as a pitcher will contribute to a team.
WAR is a stat that measures how many wins a player contributes to the teams overall total. If everyone on a major league team was a league-minimum, just out of AAA, non-superstar talent rookie, that team would win about 48 games. Lee replacing just one pitcher on that roster gives you five more wins, making a five-win upgrade, even if he wins 18 games that season.
Fangraphs fan projections have Morrow as a 1.7 WAR pitcher right now. Dave’s posts early this off-season slotted Morrow at, I believe, 0.5 WAR (lower than Lookout Landing). What’s clear is that there’s no consensus on what Morrow’s going to be or do–he’s certainly got tons of potential, but no one’s certain about how he’s going to tap into that.
Let’s assume, for the sake of discusison, that Dave’s projection of Morrow at 0.5 WAR as a starter is the “low end” of the sample pool. I don’t have access to Fangraphs numbers, but a 1.7 WAR pitcher with someone projecting 0.5 WAR in theory has someone else projecting 2.9 WAR to balance that out.
If Morrow is looking 1.7 to the masses, and a high end nearing 3.0…why would you move him to the pen? I mean, seriously: a starter netting you near 2.0 is nothing to sneeze at.
And for what it’s worth, Morrow’s career line as a starter is a horribly small sample size (79.1 innings). Batters against posted a 111 tOPS+ versus 93 as a reliever according to Baseball Reference. But WAIT! In 2009, Morrow collected 58.1 of those 79.1 innings as a starter. His tOPS+ against? 96, which is (slightly) above average–100 being average.
I’m a self-confessed Morrow fan. He’s a pitcher I will root for when he’s playing for any other team. But laying aside that sort of blind emotional love for a player…
You know what, read this thread. There’s some good points made in response to Dave’s pessimism (and yes, I call it pessimism).
Morrow=starter in 2010. Hopefully for the Mariners.
My favorite off-season moment so far: I was having dinner with family in a fancy place. After we all sat down, I leaned forward and whispered to my baseball-loving Mom about the pending trade. Everyone in the place heard her exclaim, “The M’s are getting Cliff Lee?!!”
I know that the risk/reward is high and it could saddle us for a year longer, but a nagging thought keeps coming into my mind: Carlos Silva for Dontrelle Willis.
I am partial to “Soul Brother Clifford” if they are open to suggestions.
You have that backwards. Per Cot’s:
Willis – 2010:$12M
Silva – 2010:$11.5M, 2011:$11.5M, 2012:$12M mutual option ($2M buyout)
I apologize for being silly.
The reason why the Mariners need more offense:
2-1 leads in the 8th inning turn into losses much easier than 4-1 leads. I’m not asking for 20… but 3 or 4 would be nice.
Absolutely we need more offense. I realize we are not done yet so its all probably a moot point. Im not saying we need to lead the league in HR or anything like that, cause thats not who we are. But we definitely need to score more runs than last year. We were already pretty stellar in defense and pitching last year, and we have only improved that even more. But even if we just get into the top 10 in the AL in all the categories where we finished dead last in, i can see us doing some real special things next year.
Is there any reason Chone can’t play 2b? Would he be better defensively than Lopez?
What would be better; Carp at 1st, Lopez at 2nd and Chone at 3rd or Lopez at 1st, Chone at 2nd and Tui at 3b?
I’ll take option #3 please.
The M’s can do far better then Carp or Tuiasosopo with the ~$10M and trade chips they have.
Despite the new found playoff excitement (TM), I’d still hope there are fresh new faces from the M’s farm working their way into the line-up over the course of 2010. (Tuiasosopo, Saunders, Carp)
I’d much rather sacrifice a win or two towards that portion of the cycle of life than see 250 PA’s of Old Man Griffey forgetting how to hit.