First Base Options
I know the excitement-o-meter is off the charts right now, and the last week has raised everyone’s expectations for how Jack is going to finish the off-season. First base is the obvious next step, and since they got Cliff Lee, why not dream about Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Lance Berkman, or Joey Votto, right?
The problem, though, is that you can only acquire players who the other team wants to trade. And there’s just no real signs that any of those guys are available right now. You can want them to be, but if they aren’t, they aren’t. They may be available at some point in the future, but as of today, the odds of getting any of those kinds of players are slim, and the price you would have to pay to get it done is prohibitive.
That is why, in reality, I think the M’s are going to end up spending $4 to $5 million on a solid, non-star first baseman for 2010. They have around $10 million or so left in the budget, and I’d expect them to save some cash to sign one of the injury prone/old starting pitchers on the market, whether that be Erik Bedard, Ben Sheets, John Smoltz, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, or whoever. I also get the feeling that they’re going to sign a reliever, and they’d love to have a lefty for Wak to use in the 7th/8th innings. So, saving some cash and getting a less sexy name at first base is probably the way to go. And if something opens up for a bigger acquisition down the line, you can evaluate whether it’s the right move then.
Essentially, here are the options that I’m aware of as of now:
Via Trade:
Lyle Overbay, Toronto
The classic average first baseman. He doesn’t do anything well or poorly. He makes okay contact. He draws some walks. He hits for some power. His defense at first is fine. He’s just average across the board, offering little risk and little upside. Given the M’s roster, that’s actually a pretty valuable piece, because he’s the kind of player you can count on without worrying about significant variance. The win or two he would add over Mike Carp is pretty important in terms of the M’s playoff chances, so even if he’s not exciting, it is a real upgrade and potentially worth pursuing.
He’s due $7 million in the final year of his contract, then he’s a free agent. You could probably get the Blue Jays to kick in a couple million if the M’s were willing to take him, as they just acquired Brett Wallace to be their first baseman of the future, and Overbay is just in his way. As a one year fill-in who didn’t cost much, he could help the team score some runs and not be a big obstacle if the Padres put Gonzalez on the market in July. The price has to be right, though, and that depends on Toronto’s desire to move him.
Luke Scott, Baltimore
Scott, we’ve talked about. An outfielder who is willing to transition to first base and could probably be acquired for the right price, he’s arbitration eligible and will make around $4 million in 2010. Lefty with power and patience who strikes out a bit, he’s similar in total value to Overbay, though he also offers the defensive flexibility to be able to play the outfield if need be, and the M’s could keep him past 2010 if he had a good season. Whether those positives outweigh the cost of acquiring him from the Orioles, who would not give him away, is a pretty big factor.
Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh
Another guy we’ve talked about as a potential fit for the team. He offers a bit more risk and upside than either Overbay or Scott, as he’s young and could catch part-time, giving the M’s the chance to get some offense from behind the plate while offering insurance if either Moore or Johnson are not ready for the start of the season. He’s also a switch-hitter, so from a flexibility standpoint, it would be hard to do better. Lots of downsides, though – he’s coming off a bad season, he’s had wrist injury issues which are known to sap power, and he has next to no experience at first base. He’s also an overly aggressive hitter, which the M’s are in the process of getting away from. That’s a lot of extra risk for the M’s to be taking on, though the upside is there.
He’s under contract for $3.5 million in 2010 and $5 million in 2011, so the contract is right. Pittsburgh would want something useful in return, though, so like Scott, the M’s may decide that they’re better off acquiring a cast-off that won’t cost them any talent and could offer similar production, even if it comes with less flexibility.
Willy Aybar, Tampa Bay
A bit of a personal favorite, he’d be an upside play, kind of in the mold of what the M’s did with Gutierrez and Aardsma a year ago. A switch hitter with gap power and good contact skills, he has the tools to be an above average hitter, but the results haven’t been there the last two years due to low BABIPs. Some players really are true talent .270 BABIP guys, but we’re still dealing with a small sample on Aybar, and we shouldn’t conclude that he is just yet.
He’l be 27 next year, and remains on my list of guys who could take a big step forward if given regular playing time. He also has experience at both 3rd and 2nd (though he may getting too large for second base, especially on a team that values defense), offering the positional flexibility that the team likes. In a lot of ways, he’s a really good fit for the roster.
Unfortunately, he plays for Tampa Bay, and they are the hardest team in the league to trade with. They value their young, cost-controlled players and are reluctant to make any deal that is not a heist for their franchise. They know that Aybar has some upside, and given his team friendly contract, they’re not likely to part with him unless they get something back that they like even more.
James Loney, Los Angeles
The gap between what Loney has been and could be is pretty large. He has tremendous contact skills, the kind of swing and frame that should generate power, and the athleticism of a guy who could be a really good defender at first base. Heading into his age 26 season, though, he has yet to translate the skills into performance.
His lack of power is the real problem at the moment. His ISO was just .118 last year, simply not good enough from a non-premium defender at the position. He has more juice in his bat, as he’s shown in the minors and in his 2007 season, but the power can only be hoped for, not expected. Despite the athleticism, his UZR is below average in nearly 4,000 innings at first base. And the walks don’t make up for the rest of the package.
The Dodgers are unlikely to give up on him so soon, so he won’t be easy to acquire. And yet, he just hasn’t produced at a level where the M’s should be comfortable paying a premium to acquire him in lieu of other available options. The upside makes him interesting, but the cost to acquire probably eliminates him from discussion.
Mat Gamel, Milwaukee
In some ways, Gamel makes a lot of sense. Jack drafted him in Milwaukee, so there’s not much of a question over whether they like what he brings to the table. A 23-year-old lefty who pounds the ball all over the field and draws a bunch of walks is certainly appealing to the M’s, and he’s basically major league ready. Rather than serving as a short term solution, he could help the team win in 2010 and beyond.
There are problems, though. He’s not good defensively, and probably won’t be anywhere. He lacks the physical abilities to be a quality glove guy. He also strikes out an awful lot and doesn’t have the power of a guy like Branyan, so you have to live with a bit lower average without getting the 35 homers. The doubles and walks make him a good hitter, but given his defensive issues, he’s not going to be a star unless he’s a great hitter. And, while Milwaukee probably would trade him if they got the right return, his price tag will be high.
He probably won’t outproduce the veteran options for 2010, so acquiring Gamel would be a move for the future. But if it takes a big part of the future to get him, is the team really better off? A Morrow-Gamel deal has been discussed, but it seems like neither team is really pushing for it. The M’s may be better off just getting a player who can produce in 2010 and worry about the future later.
Via Free Agency:
Everything I said about Overbay is true about LaRoche. They’re very similar players. LaRoche has a tad more power, though he’s spent his career in the National League, so you have to adjust his numbers down a bit. He’s a good but not great hitter and an okay defender, and the overall package makes him about league average. The problem, though, is that his strong finish to the 2009 season has deluded him into thinking he’s worth significant money. Rumors have him asking for 3 years and $30 million. Anything more than 1/7 is an overpay in this market, so he’s probably out unless his agent can talk some sense into him.
Russ Branyan
As I mentioned the other day, the M’s already have enough health risks, and they may not want to compound that by bringing Branyan back and counting on him to play the field. His power makes him a good player when he’s healthy, but whether he’ll be able to play well or often is a real question. Even at a discount, the M’s might now be best suited going for a lesser player with a healthier profile.
See Russ Branyan, just replace the herniated disc with knee problems and the fact that he’s almost 40.
The right-handed version of Overbay. He’s a decent enough player, but he’s better off somewhere else.
A useful platoon hitter who is a better defender than he’s usually given credit for, but the M’s aren’t going to run a platoon at first base, and Hinske isn’t that much better than Mike Carp. Probably not a real option.
He’s just not very good, and offers way too much risk with not enough reward.
Internal Candidates
His strong performance in limited time in Seattle has probably inflated his actual value in the eyes of some fans. As a player, he’s similar to Overbay, just with less power and worse defense. He has good plate discipline, but lacks the power to be a really good hitter, and his contact skills are just fine, not exceptional. For this player type to work, you generally have to have excellent bat control and be terrific in the field, ala John Olerud or Mark Grace. Carp is not that kind of defender or contact hitter, leaving him shy of the major league skills needed to be a quality major league starter. He’s probably a +0 to +1 win player for 2010, and the upside is limited. He’d be cheap, but the team could do better.
This probably deserves it’s own post, but no, the team should not move Lopez to first base. He’s not so bad defensively that he’s killing the team at second, nor is he so good offensively that the team should be willing to make the move to keep his bat in the line-up. He’d probably be a decent defender relative to the average first baseman, but offensively, he’d be among the worst in the league. If you don’t want him playing second base, then you don’t want him on the team. And maybe you don’t, but this is a terrible market in which to try to trade a second baseman, and he has value at his production/cost level, so giving him away is pretty foolish. In reality, the M’s best option is probably to let him keep the spot warm for Dustin Ackley, hope he has a big year, and try to trade him again next winter.
Great analysis, but the fact is Branyan, if healthy, will likely be more productive than any of the candidates listed above. I realize that this year the Mariners need to minimize the question marks as much as possible, but then again I think they can’t limit their upside too drastically either. Branyan has also shown he can hit in Safeco, and that isn’t an inconsequential consideration, even with left handers.
Regarding Lopez, wouldn’t an average defensive 2nd basemen be an above average 1st basemen, compared to the rest of MLB? Sure his 1.5 UZR/150 isn’t lighting the world up, but it puts him smack in the middle of all 2nd basemen. That should make him in the top 5 or so 1st basemen. I’m not saying that he’d be an ideal person for the position or even to move him to 1st, but his defense would have to contribute more value to him, wouldn’t it? And with the glut of 2nd basemen, this is definately not the ideal market for for a Free Agent. Wouldn’t a 1 year/$10m deal for a Hudson, Polanco, or Felipe Lopez bring in enough of an upgrade to mitigate a more anemic option at 1B?
Or are the M’s getting close to the top end of their budget?
You can’t just say “if healthy” and move on, though. The fact is that the guy has a herniated disc in his back. He’s not healthy.
I like Aybar too. His versatility makes him a good fit for the Mariners and like you said he has a team friendly contract. I think he would do well having an every day job in Seattle and would also save money for the other signings you mentioned. What do you think the Rays would want for Aybar? Who is your favorite of the pitchers you mentioned? would Sheets sign for less than the 12 million he reportedly wants?
It just seems that the most plausible move for the Mariners is to not make any move for 1st base during the off-season, and just wait until the trade deadline to call up Ackely to play 2B, then trade Jose Lopez, plus prospects for a 1B.
They could make due with a platoon at 1B with Bradley/Carp for three months.
Wouldn’t a 1 year/$10m deal for a Hudson, Polanco, or Felipe Lopez bring in enough of an upgrade to mitigate a more anemic option at 1B?
Polanco already signed with Philadelphia.
In the end, it basically comes down to whether you think you can get more production from the available first baseman or second baseman. Hudson and Felipe Lopez both project as average to slightly below average hitters, while the Overbay/Scott types project as above average hitters. The gap is probably 10 to 15 runs on offense.
I don’t think there’s much of a case to be made that you’d save 10 to 15 runs on defense with Hudson/Lopez as compared to Lopez/Overbay. You’d have to really stretch the projections to make them equal.
And then you’d have to factor in the damage you’d be doing to Jose Lopez’s trade value. You’re essentially nullifying the chance that he hits well enough to generate some interest as an offensive second baseman next winter. No team is going to want him as a first baseman.
I had been thinking the same thing. The Mariners had so many low OBP guys on the team last year. Now, with the addition of Figgins and Bradley, that is not the case anymore.
So, with Lopez batting behind all of them, he will put up some good rbi numbers that some old school GM will want.
Unless Jack can work some magic, there are worse things than keeping Lopez and trading him next year.
What about trying to acquire Kila Ka’aihue from the Royals? He’s put up some impressive OBP numbers in the minor leagues, but the Royals don’t seem to see him as a piece for their big-league squad, judging by their choice to not call him up last September. Plus, it’s Dayton Moore, so you have to figure he could be had pretty cheaply. Or is he not enough of an upgrade over Carp to make a difference?
Kila’s a great low-cost option, and KC’s unwillingness to play him is just insane, but I can’t imagine he’s that much of an upgrade over Carp.
It think it is pretty much a given that the Mariners shouldn’t sign Branyan unless the Dr’s clear him and give the Mariners some assurance about the likelyhood of a reoccurance. There is no doubt that there is some level of risk involved. And of course the risk goes up as the season progresses. If his back goes out a week before the season starts its going to be awfully hard to replace him, especially since candidates like Luke Scott won’t have the time in spring training to get used to first base and the other infielders.
How about Mat Gamel? He seems like decent upside and could pick up first base, plus he’s blocked at first and third in Milwaukee and/or their system.
Given Kansas City’s tendency to sign former Mariners, what are the odds of Russ Branyan ending up with the Royals next year?
Gamel seems like another one of those “Jack Z has raised our expectations to unreasonable heights” guys.
it’s a shame Vlad Guerrero doesn’t have some experience at 1B; he could be a productive 1B/DH type for another year or two and probably come at a reasonable price.
I still would really like both Doumit and Scott. I’m not sure how reasonable that is, and Langerhans pretty much eliminated both. But a bench of Doumit Hall Hannahan would be nice. I suppose there may be room for Langerhans in there if Rob was traded for Doumit. We’d have a four man rotation in left/first/dh (Bradley/Doumit/Scott/Griffey) with Langerhans pretty much defensive subbing for any of them. I suppose that would be alot of shuffling, and if we had 5 left fielders (Doumit Bradley Scott Langerhans Hall) that be a bit much. I guess I really just want to limit Griffey’s at bats as much as possible, but this option creates a lot of risks as Doumit would be shuffling through 2-4 positions all year (1b LF C DH), and I’m not sure how that affects a player.
Scott seems like a must to me, and Doumit wouldn’t be a bad guy to have on the bench if the price is right. I’d be more than content with Overbay also.
LaRoche is the best fit, but his asking price is too high for too long.
The best thing about him is his consistency and the M’s could really use that, especially with MB in left. He is slow starter, but he’s posted a .900+ OPS in July, August, and September for his career. That’s a good sign for the playoffs.
It looks like Nick Johnson was the big fish that got away.
I like the potential power hitter that Delgado could pose to be if he can stay healthy for the year, but the injury issues are worrisome about him. Could Mike Lowell be a possible option, or is he in the same boat as Branyan and Delgado(especially after Rangers deal was nixed)?
I think we might be underestimating the odds that the M’s decide to bring back the muscle. My guess is he soon realizes that a multi-year offer isn’t coming and takes 1yr/4mil with the M’s. When the back starts to flare up, he gets a 15-game break and Carp get’s called up (but how many options does Carp have left?). 450 PA from Branyan and 250 from Carp for less than $5 million is likely to provide a pretty solid value.
It just seems that the most plausible move for the Mariners is to not make any move for 1st base during the off-season, and just wait until the trade deadline to call up Ackley to play 2B, then trade Jose Lopez, plus prospects for a 1B
Ackley should have a full year in the minors so he can shift to second successfully. Why not get a bat now and let tui or figgins play 2nd?
A guy available that hasn’t been mentioned at all, Dan Uggla. Anyway we would get him an ok price and shift the infield around with lopez at first and uggla and figgins at 2nd or 3rd. Uggla and Lopez could shift around and Uggla could DH while Bradley is in left and tui, hannahan or hall could play in the infield
I could see this happening because jack seems to make deals no one has heard anything about and dan uggla is a power bat who can play a couple infield positions and a .350 OBP isn’t a bad number to be around. he wouldn’t come cheap, but I’m sure Z would find some kind of deal to get him. While his defense is subpar, he has had an average defensive season in 08.
He also has two years of arbitration left and most people think he’ll get 7 mil this year, which would leave us with enough money to sign a guy like sheets or bedard on an incentive-laced deal. And he’s in a smaller kind of milton bradley situation in florida (don’t make hanley mad) and is becoming unaffordable for them.
And his wOBA is .325 which puts him smack at the bottom of all 1st basemen. So whoever you bring in to replace Lopez at 2B has to be enough of an upgrade over him (offense + defense) to be better than the difference between one of these other options and Carp. Moreover, keep in mind that even with a glut of 2B the good 2B options are going to want more than one year, which potentially blocks Ackley or gives you another headache down the road.
No, I think we’re stuck with Lopez until Ackley is ready. And who knows — he’s not going to show any better plate discipline, but his power may continue to develop and that may make him a more valuable piece to trade later.
I’m so stunned at the thought of Randy Johnson in an M’s uni that I posted my first thoughts in the wrong thread! I couldn’t even focus on what the rest of your article said. All I could think of was taking my son who’s too young to know who Randy Johnson was, to watch him pitch at Qwest Field. One year after I took him to see Griffey.
There was a time when, if you went to an M’s game, all your neighbor wanted to know was ”
Was Randy pitching?”
I read that M’s scouted and watched cuban first baseman Jose Julio Ruiz. No mention of Jorge Cantu? Marlins could upgrade there bullpen M’s could upgrade 1st base. Cantu becomes a FA in 2011 if he leaves we have flexability for the 2011 payroll to land a number 2 starter if needed and buy some time to further evaluate Carp, and maybe get a pick.
Everyone in this family agrees with the very first post. Russ Branyan is being sold short on the herniated disk problem if that’s all it is. I had one operated on (Brain surgeon at Harborview) and was 100% in a couple of weeks. A healthy Branyan would be a Great addition, Carp would be good trade bait or someone for the future (which does come). A healthy Branyan is probably the missing cog that gives us the best chance to play in our 1st World Serries in 2010, (Ahem, especially if Walk could manage to slap him on the back a few more times). It comes down to who wants to return, Branyan, or Beltre (or both! but we need at least one of them).
P.S. All U wannaB GM’s, leave the pitching staff alone for at least a year (NO Trades). Bring back Bedard, Washburn, even Batista (the inning eater), if the price is right. Bring back Randy Johnson as a setup man? This is the first “fun” offseason that I can remember Usually we get rid of the good players. Isn’t it fun to see what Jack Z. will do next.
Delgado’s playing winter ball in Puerto Rico?
Any word on how is health is? I know he’s ancient, but as recently as 2008 he was murder on baseballs.
Overbay sounds like a reasonable move to me, though it will leave the offense feeling somewhat unfinished on a gut level (for what that’s worth).
It’s interesting that it sounds like Lopez has gone from about an 80% probability that he was gone to at least an 80% chance that he’ll be back.
Scott, if possible…simply becasue of his 1B/OF versatility…and hie’s probably the best stick (or close to it ) of the bunch.
Other than that…Carp. I like him a lot. He’s patient, he learns, he has some gap boom. I think he’s a .290/.365/.465 type of guy. Which is essentially as productive as you would expect anybody on that list to be, minus a healthy (which he isn’t) Branyan. And you’re not going to risk his back in the field, anyway.
If Delgado is a zero cost guy then he’s worth bringing in for a look at those knees. He was productive two years ago…but hie’s nearing the age (or past it) that makes a comeback season unlikely.
And he’s free. But, if you can get Scott..do it.
Look for a 1B type that can play outfield, too, Because Bradly is going to wear out his welcome by the end of May.
Keith
Dave, great post.
I’ve read that Toronto might want to start the season with Overbay at 1B and Wallace in the minors (to extend their team control over Wallace).
This could be relevant to the M’s plans for 1B in that should the M’s sign Branyan (an injury risk) they could have an in-season Overbay trade as the back-up option (no pun intended) should Branyan end up on the DL.
Regarding the cost of adding both, the M’s would need to get Branyan to sign a performance-based contract to avoid paying double at 1B.
I agree with you that the recovery from a ruptured disc is a serious concern, but perhaps this is a manageable risk for the M’s, if the deal is properly structured.
That said, it would be quite interesting to know what surgical procedure was performed on Branyan (i.e., discectomy, disc replacement, fusion). Do you know?
Really? The one major part of his game that’s severely lacking won’t get any better? What do you think he’ll be working on? He wants to get paid just like everyone else and, unless he becomes more selective, he will never get that big payday. Plate discipline is a skill that tends to improve with experience and Lopez’ will too.
With so many potential possibilities out there, some patience might be a good idea. Perhaps the prices on some of these players will come down as spring training approaches. This looks like a market with a bit of oversupply relative to the players current expectations. Most teams do not have much money to spend at this point. Z should let this situation come to him rather than being aggressive out there.
Dave, is there any circumstance in which you would put Lopez at first? I am obviously thinking of signing Beltre. Now, I am not a proponent of Lopez at 1B, but I am a proponent of Beltre (and his awesome, awesome defense) at 3B. Would Beltre’s defense at 3B and Figgins’s defense at 2B offset the less than desireable proposition of Lopez at 1B?
Great post. Doumit would be my first choice. His 2009 year was messed up by injuries but in 2008 he showed he can rake — truly he can hit, and he’s a gamer. Luke Scott would be second, Branyan or LaRoche third. I could be happy with any of those guys really. Looking like we leave Jose at 2nd. Unit is intriguing but probably done, since 09 was the first time his arm started giving out.
I wonder, too, if we could consider Doumit our second catcher and thereby give Johnson’s spot to another infield/outfield guy.
Any word on Glaus? Why isn’t he on this list? The word is he’s looking for a 1B/DH gig to save his shoulder. He’s got power that transcends Safeco and OBP skills.
He’s a West Coast guy, not that that means anything. How much is he asking for?
I saw Glaus play on his AAA rehab at the end of last season and he did not look great: pretty imobile in the field, which we don’t need. You have to respect his career but not sure he’s got much left in the tank.
How often/successful is it to expect a switch in positions? The Luke Scott idea seems to imply that moving from the outfield to the infield would be no problem. If that is the case then couldn’t you add more to your list? Jack Cust comes to mind initially.
I think the point that Dave (and all others in opposition to Lopez at first) is trying to make is that it isn’t Lopie’s D that would be the problem were he to be plugged in at first. It would be his offense. As a second baseman, he’s above average in a number of categories offensively, and below average in a number of categories defensively. As a first baseman, he would be below average in just about every category offensively, and about average in most categories defensively. Because there ARE options out there that would fit better than him at first, those will be pursued before even considering moving him over.
I think that Beltre is a little out of the question at this point, as long as Lopez is “untrade-able”, as he’s rumored to be. Were a situation to present itself that involved trading Lopez, then I think the possibility of bringing Beltre back at third and shifting Figgins to second would become a bit more likely.
I have to echo the love here for Doumit, if only because he can play behind the plate. If we’ve only got roughly 10 mil to spend, are we really going to go out and get another starter?
I know Rob Johnson says his surgeries went great, but I just don’t see us not acquiring a veteran catcher this winter. Am I completely off here? If we’ve got 10 mil to spend, that’s gotta eat up both 1st and catcher, right? Although… I suppose Z can make some savvy move and land us all three for less than 5 mil. Geez, I love this guy.
Now that Mike Lowell is staying in Boston, would it be worth signing Beltre, putting Figgins at second and Lopez at first? Offensively, this wouldn’t give you much, but that defense would be mind-blowing. Also, do you know how below average (defensively) LF’s like Luke Scott translate to 1B. Are there trends? What should we expect defensively from a guy ike him?
I need to read the comments before I post, I apologize.
1) Does Cust have a 1B projection?
2) Any AAA 1b trapped behind Allstars? i.e. behind Pujols, behind Howard?
3)I choose Luke Scott.
A few more names to consider:
Aubrey Huff- Coming off a down year and could be a good value.
Xavier Nady- Positional flexibility, but is he healthy?
Josh Whitesell- He has outhit Carp in the PCL, and is a free agent. Good option for a minor league deal since Shelton and Nelson are gone.
As of right now, I am favoring a deal to bring in either Scott or Doumit. They are the best value at the lowest cost, providing we dont give up the farm to aquire them. Aybar would be nice, but like Dave said I dont see that happening. LaRoche is the only FA I am somewhat interested but only on a 1yr deal, 2 max. I believe that Carp has more upside than any other FA out there so if we cant make a trade that makes sense lets just stick with him and try to make a deal later.
I think Scott or Doumit are valuable to their teams and will require us giving up something valuable.
Overbay could probably be had pretty cheaply. He’d be adequate, but he’s had sub-.800 OPS in two of the last three years. But at least he would be reliable.
LaRoche is probably the best of the bunch, all things considered, but he’s also nothing to get excited about. The most I’d go on him is 2/$15MM and that seems unlikely considering what’s out there.
Carp is a nice, solid option to have if someone goes down, but I wouldn’t want him as our starter.
Everyone else is a giant question mark.
It’s a pretty depressing set of options considering 1B is the M’s best chance to significantly improve the offense.
Shame we can’t platoon it, and take some of the risk off the table.
Ah well, I’m sure Jack will figure something out I’m happy with.
What about Casey Kotchman? With a combination of Victor Martinez and Kevin Youkilis blocking most of his playing time, perhaps the Red Sox would assume spend the ~$5M on him elsewhere.
What about Nick Swisher? The Yanks now have Granderson. Swisher can play first and all OF positions.
Would probably cost just as much if not more than Doumit and Scott. There’s still plenty of playing time for Swisher in RF for the Yanks. Seems to be pretty well liked there, as well — no motivation to move him. Not really an option, in my eyes, and I do loves me some Nick Swisher.
Randy Johnson? With Junior. I also heard that Gar and the Bone were coming back.
Lopez has been in the majors since 04 and has not improved his O-Swing%. In fact, his 09 season was his worst in that regard with an O-Swing% of 35.8. If anything, his judgment has gotten worse. What in the world makes you think it will now start to improve? Especially for a guy who has never been known for his work ethic.
$$$
You could definitely do worse than Kotchman at first base, but I dont think he would be worth trading for as an upgrade over somebody like Overbay who would come cheap.
Pro: Kotchman can pick it with the glove posting an above average UZR.
Con: We dont need another Sub Par hitter in the lineup.
*On another note, I cant seem to find who through out the idea of Jorge Cantu but I like it.
Pro: RH power bat with positional flexiblity. He played at 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
Con: His defense was shaky at best.
*I think our defense is good enough we could sacrifice at 1st base to get somebody who could hit and it wouldnt hurt to get another RH bat in the lineup. I wonder what he would cost us or if Florida would even be willing to deal him.
Kudos to whoever brought him into the convo!
How about this:
Bradley, Carp, Pineda, Olson, and Halman for Miguel Cabrera.
Felix might like having a fellow countryman aboard.
The line-up currently has two LH hitters, four RH hitters, and two switch-hitters. Whoever started this ridiculous notion that the team needs another RH hitter (okay, I know who it was, and he just wanted to push his Jason Bay story) is just not looking at the roster.
Leroy, money is the great motivator but something tells me that, if anything, Lopez will just start hacking more in effort to put up gaudy numbers hoping for an eventual payday. I’m also pretty sure many people on this site with more knowledge than I have have mentioned that plate discipline is actually the one facet of a players game that does not improve with age/time. I’m sure there are unique cases, but for the most part, I believe, a players knowledge of the strike zone is set by the time they reach the majors.
How about this:
Bradley, Carp, Pineda, Olson, and Halman for Miguel Cabrera.
First of all why would the Tigers take on Bradley? Second of all we might fill 1B but then we would have a hole in LF unless Saunders is ready. Thirdly Halman hasn’t proven himself yet. And last Do we have the salary to take on Cabrera?
jimmy,
I disagree with most of what you said, but I’m not convinced Lopez will turn it around either. I think it’s safe to say he won’t become the next Nick Johnson though.
To dump ~$100MM of Cabrera’s salary.
Saunders is a viable option and with Cabrera in the lineup, it would reduce the need to get substantial production from LF.
True, he’s pure potential.
I don’t know. But I wonder what Felix would think about having a fellow countryman like Cabrera. It could affect how is extension is structured. And you have to admit, it would solidify our contender status.
Detroit would love to dump some salary now. And this would be the quickest way to do that. They are in rebuilding mode, but could contend in a couple of years, right about the time Prince Fielder is a FA. And Fielder in Detroit would have a specific appeal to them. They’d also have the money to sign him and it doesn’t look like the Yankees or Angels will be in the market for a 1B anytime soon. And the Red Sox want Gonzalez. So, I’d have to think they’d have a reasonable chance to sign him.
I’m not sure of this deal myself. It was just a thought. I’d like it more if Cabrera was LH. Still, the more I think about it, I can see the merits.
Dave, as far as you know, is there currently any interest in Kelly Johnson? This would add another LH bat to the line-up and possibly free up Lopez to use in acquiring a 1st baseman.
So wait. You’re saying there are options beyond Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder?!
Put me in the Overbay camp. As long as it doesn’t take too much to get him and the Blue Jays toss in a couple million, he’s as solid as they get. If we don’t end up with him, I’d be happy with Branyan or even Gamel as an alternative.
Of course not! That would just be ridiculous.
A couple of other points regarding Cabrera…
I can’t imagine he is much of a fan favorite now, after his binge drinking episode.
The recession has hit Detroit disproportionately, so the calculations that made Cabrera a good investment no longer apply.
Even considering health issues I would like to see them bring back Branyan. Give him an incentive laden contract and hold Carp in reserve. If he breaks down mid-season then you trade for a Fielder or Gonzales type player when those teams are out of contention/ focused on rebuilding. At this point I don’t think it makes sense to sell the farm for a star. Most of the other 1B listed above just don’t present enough upside compared to the presumed cost.
I have a very large man crush on Lance Berkman. Of all of the trades I could wish for this Christmas, He is it. That I would give the first born for. He is the ultimate on base machine. He is versatile plays many position, And is a well above average 1B glove. What a dream combo
Berkman would be terrific. But he’s a $14M guy!
Unaffordable. I love Kelly Johnson as a cheap pickup…plays corner OF positions and 2nd base, too.
He plays left and then the jerk…er..Milton B. plays DH. I could live with that, maybe. Scott would be the better acquisition…but he involves a trade, a bit more problematic.
I would also love a David DeJesus acquisition. He’s a way PLUS defender (23 and 16 UZR150 the last two seasons in left) and a pretty good stick. Comes relatively cheap at about $4M.
Rosterbation, I know…
But I hate Bradley.
Keith
Why is everyone so down on Saunders all of a sudden? I think people are jumping the gun on placing him in Tacoma for the season’s start. We should wait till spring training for that. Langerhans may still not make the team, and Saunders has higher upside. With Hannahan and Hall, I don’t think Tui has a spot on the team.
On first base, Russell Branyan is the best option. If you get half a year of good 2009 Branyan, plus Mike Carp, it is better than any of the options on the above list, and costs next to nothing. Barring picking up Adrian Gonzalez for a Jackie Z style deal, I support getting Branyan in January.
What about Mark Derosa? He’s an above average hitter, good OBP, very versatile. I think he would be a good fit if he would be willing to play first everyday and sign a reasonable 1 or 2 year deal.
Another piece to the puzzle, certainly worthy of discussion/consideration, is Nick Swisher. I am not sure if the Yankees and Johnny Damon are done, but if he re-enters the Yankee roster then Swisher may be odd man out. He played a reasonable 1st base in his Oakland days and like most A’s has good OBP. His ability to switch hit, and to at least man the corner out field spots, would not hurt either.
Another piece to the puzzle, certainly worthy of discussion/consideration, is Nick Swisher. I am not sure if the Yankees and Johnny Damon are done, but if he re-enters the Yankee roster then Swisher may be odd man out. He played a reasonable 1st base in his Oakland days and like most A’s has good OBP. His ability to switch hit, and to at least man the corner out field spots, would not hurt either.
oops, sorry!
Re: Lopez at 1B. Is Lopez an upgrade from Carp? Looking at 2009, a few 2010 projections, and some back of the napkin guesses Lopez is a 755 OPS guy and Carp is a 745 OPS guy. Carp has more of his OPS from OBP which makes the gap smaller than that.
As an average 2B I suspect Lopez would be better defensively, but I don’t think you can move a MI guy to 1B and assume his skills will translate; it’s not the same as moving a SS to 2B or a CF to LF. But slight edge to Lopez on defense.
However, Carp seems to have more upside albeit with more risk.
It doesn’t seem like signing a 2B has any value unless you can move Lopez and Dave asserts that you can’t.
micah,
I don’t think everyone is down on Saunders. With the M’s expected to contend this year, it makes more sense for Saunders to spend another year at Tacoma instead of going with two rookies in the lineup. I think people are still very high on him.
Really good rundown on the first base options. The Ms clearly need to find someone rather than just make due with Lopez/Carp.
I’d take another looks at James Loney. If the Ms really are trying to recreate the ’85 Cardinals (as suggested in an earlier post), he’d fit in well: a good contact hitter capable of hitting .300, with a decent OBP (lifetime .354). There’s still some upside potential here with his power too. The Dodgers are said to be interested in pitching, so why not offer them a package built around Morrow?
I still don’t know why everybody is so damn certain we only have $95 million for the player budget in 2010. As far as I’ve seen, Howard or Chuck made one vague statement about revenues, and from there we’ve extrapolated they won’t add payroll.
However, we know that they added $8 million to the budget in 2008 to trade for Bedard. Of course it didn’t work out then, but why should we be so certain that ownership isn’t thinking, “Damn, Jack, you’ve added Cliff Lee and Milton Bradley for $12 million. We could win the World Series this year. If you have to bump up the payroll 5-10 million, we’ll do it.”
It’s not like I think they will or should spend $18 million per year on Holliday, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they spent $18 million to fill their remaining holes (1B, SP, RP) if they’re going for it.
$95 million is speculation. It’s reasonable speculation, but it’s not inflexible.
good one dirk. exactly the “under the radar” move that fits Jack’s recent M.O.
Huff’s a good player and is coming off a down year. He’s 33, (look at that, today’s his b-day!), and put up a +4 WAR as recent as 2008.
I would like to see this one.
Any thought of Mike Lowell as a corner infield option. Injuries are problematic, but I like the right handed power and versatility it gives the M’s. If the Red Sox are looking to dump him, and absorb $9 million of his salary, he may be a veteran option. What kind of prospect had Texas offered in the trade?
Overbay gets my vote. Good ‘D’, good OBA guy, hits less homers than I would like but he’s a good doubles man. His OPS vRHP was in the AL top 20. He had real problems vLHP though. He’s a solid player who looks healthy.
I don’t know if Dave left this out of the analysis on purpose, but if the mariners sign Beltre, First base become first base by assignment. They would then have lopez and carp available for first base.
Signing beltre also address the injury risk Dave spoke of with reason not to sign Branyan.
Wasn’t Luke Scott the guy on outside the lines last year explaining why he never leaves his home without his concealed weapon neatly tucked into his jeans? I’ll pass, Left handed stick notwithstanding.
Gamel is an interesting name, and i love the syntax “pounds the ball all over the field and draws a bunch of walks”, i’ll take some of those in the organization…. However, if i were the Milwaukee Brewers i would have some serious misgivings dealing with Jack right about now…
If that is your reason for not wanting a player you are going to have to find something to do other than follow sports.
Perhaps I missed it Dave, but did you have a personal preference (after taking into account what you expect the price of these players will be)?
And yet many of us (Dave included) have an outfielder (Luke Scott) moving to 1B. If we are to assume that this is not an isolated case but rather an acceptance that someone who is primarily an outfielder could switch positions relatively easily as long as they are willing to make the switch then the pool of potential players at 1B goes beyond Dave’s list and becomes much larger. If we are going to include Scott shouldn’t we also include Jason Bay, Johnny Damon and Jack Cust in the discussion?
Concealed carry is legal in 38 states. I’ll bet there are at least a dozen Mariners, and twice that many Seahawks with CCW permits. Just because they don’t talk about it, it just means they’re smarter, not better guys.
Ok, I’m not understanding the discussions about moving Lopez to 1B. I don’t see how his abilities relative to league first basemen are relevant, except as to how that league average effects what is available in the market.
My thinking: (this is just an example, and I’m just trying to understand).
Infield #1:
1B – Branyan
2B – Lopez
SS – Wilson
3B – Figgins
Infield #2:
1B – Lopez
2B – Figgins
SS – Wilson
3B – Beltre
It seems to me that the equation is simple:
[defensive increase of Figgins at 2B] + [defensive increase of Beltre at 3B] + [defensive difference of Branyan to Lopez (+or-)] + [batting difference of Branyan to Beltre] > [price of Beltre over Branyan]
If the first part of that equation is more valuable than the cost of Beltre then it’s a smart move. You can interchange Beltre and Branyan for any players you want.
Now, that might not work out. But what I don’t understand is why the abilities of other first basemen matter at all. Why we care if we have the worst hitting first basemen in all of baseball. If he’s the best we got in our organization (better than Carp), and having him there means we have an amazing 2B, SS and 3B, I’m not sure why it matters.
Really, I just want to see someone do the above equation. Or tell me how I can figure out the run value of these figures (defensive value, and hitting value), and I can try to do it.
After today, I think all of the Seahawks should start packing.
I don’t know why everyone is so certain we don’t have less. Recession…declining attendance?
No question our lineup is MUCH stronger with both Bradley and Saunders in it. Saunders is a better defender…and not putting Bradley out there should help protect his legs. But that would mean Bradley at DH…and we all know the problem there…
Let’s not turn this into a gun control/carrying debate, please.
And yet many of us (Dave included) have an outfielder (Luke Scott) moving to 1B. If we are to assume that this is not an isolated case but rather an acceptance that someone who is primarily an outfielder could switch positions relatively easily as long as they are willing to make the switch then the pool of potential players at 1B goes beyond Dave’s list and becomes much larger. If we are going to include Scott shouldn’t we also include Jason Bay, Johnny Damon and Jack Cust in the discussion?
If these guys are in the discussion for first base why is Bradley not in the discussion for a move to the first base? I can’t imagine a position with fewer injuries on the field.
If you sign Beltre you have the option of sending Figins to 2nd and left field giving you a platoon if wanted with Figins/Bradley in LF, Bradley/Griffey at DH, Lopez/Figgins at 2nd and Carp/Lopez at first. This gives plenty of options to protect injury prone players (Griffey and Bradley) while having outstanding defense.
I wish Jack could trade Lopez and resign AB. Then swing a deal for bat @1B. If Lopez were part of the trade for a 1B, all the better. I just hate the idea of Lopez at first. I think AB is a bigger upgrade at 3rd than any of the 2B we could sign.
What is Lopez’s salary for 2010? An infield with AB, JW, CF along with our outfield would generate some serious run prevention. Not to mention the O would be pretty tough.
Hey, doesn’t Willie Bloomquist play 1B, is versatile, and comes relatively cheap.
Plus, Willie probably likes guns also, since he’s into hunting.
Just saying.
Willy Effing Bloomquist. Nice.
If we’re talking about adding Ws to the roster, there’s always the option of living with the offense at hand and upgrading the pitching staff some more. There seems to be lots of good/upside deals on that front that would seem to come cheaper than the options at 1B. I’d be okay to take a chance on Carp for the first bit of the season and then see if something else opens up for us.
All conjecture, of course, but no sense trying to force something to happen just because we have a semi-hole.
I have not been on here for a while. No, not Dave, his oldest grey crusty progeny here. Bah humbug.
Yea, Dr. Z is the Second Coming. I sing his praises from Masada to the Red Sea, ad nauseum. Lee, Shawn (refuse to type CHONE), and, ahem, getting rid of Silva the Most Expensive Cheerleader in M’s History… right on. Looking forward to 2010.
But does no one regret losing Ibanez? Not at all? Would he not be a decent fit at first and DH/LF this year? Phils paid him less that 8M last year, great production, model citizen, blah blah. I think that early omission from last year’s roster, if anything, was Dr. Z’s one mistake. Because in 2010, it’s possible Rauuuuul could push us past Anaheim.
Thought? Rip me, bring it.
It looks like Dave does think there’s more than $95 MM. He said he thinks they have about $10 MM left, and right now, the payroll is somewhere around $89 or 90 MM (that’s +/- a couple mil for arbitration eligible players). By inference, that would mean around 100 for the whole payroll budget.
I’m not trying to claim that’s what they have, just trying to give you a better picture.
Yeah, but it’s a very down year” he was -1.1 WAR in 2009. Now, some of that was BABIP (.271 vs a career average right around .300) but he was only .8 WAR for the O’s in 2007 when his BABIP was .310 so he can suck without being unlucky. In fact Huff was so bad last year he was one of only two qualified first basemen (Murphy was the other) who had lower wOBAs than Jose Lopez. Clearly Huff is a “buy low” (very low) option, but is there any upside? I’d want to know a lot more about what is going on with him before I was on board taking one of the few guys who makes Lopez look like a better option.
I like Derosa, but he’s going to be 35 on opening day next year and he had a wrist injury which often saps power. Fangraphs guesses he’ll sign for 2/$15M but if you have to outbid the Giants to get him (as they suggest) you’re probably overpaying.
You’re right. It might be less. The only statements we have are those vague ones about lower revenues, so which way would you lean? Yeah, Jack is working miracles and could work more with more dough, and maybe we’ll see that; but it’s not like the unemployment rate in Washington has returned to boom (or even normal) levels, and it’s not like corporations are in the mood to throw around luxury box money. And who knows how fat the owners themselves are feeling if some of their investments cratered last spring. The fact is, we just don’t know — so the most reasonable assumption is to just take last year’s number and use it until we have data to indicating otherwise.
I can’t imagine a position with more interaction with the opposing team’s players, except for maybe catcher. And do we really want his first interaction with his new team be a demand he change positions (to one that Griffey, notably, has suggested marks the end of a career for an outfielder)?
$2.3M in 2010 which is a very good deal (one thing Bavasi didn’t screw up). His 2011 is a club option @ $4.5M and if he’s still here I’d expect they just take the $250K buyout and make him a free agent, though if he remains a ~2WAR player that’s still cheap — which is why he would have some trade value if there wasn’t such a glut of 2Bs already on the market this year.
Not while Endy was running down balls in left field, at least. Raul looked good in the early part of the year in Philly, but then he had a hitter’s park to hit in and a smaller left field to run around in (family circus style, tracking down those flies), and NL pitching to bat against too. And he didn’t look quite so shiny by the end of the season, though he had a decent postseason. But he’s not getting any younger, and he seems to be more prone to nagging injuries and wearing down as the season progresses. He had a good ’09 overall, but will he be worth his $11.5M in 2011? He would’ve wanted a similar multi-year deal to stay, and because he wasn’t on the roster Zduriencik had the financial flexibility to make some of those midseason deals last year and this offseason. Would you prefer a team with Raul on it if it also meant Betancourt at short and Silva in the bullpen and/or not signing Figgins this year?
Thanks, nathaniel. I guess Dave’s right regarding filling in the current holes with say, Scott, Sheets and a reliever that it’s roughly the $95-100 million range. And if Verlander, Dunn or Berkman (to name 3 maybe-not-quite-impossible? guys*) come available at some point, maybe that’s just a budgetary exemption to be dealt with if we are lucky enough to have to deal with it. Oh well, I suppose our next first baseman will be better than anybody Dave mentioned anyway.
*-we need something simple to call the candidates to be the next Cliff Lee
Regarding the payroll and where it stands, does anyone have any sense about the overall budget of the club? Are the Mariners profitable? How much so? Is adding $X million to the payroll an issue of just taking less profit for a year, or would they be borrowing it from other parts of the organization or the owners?
I realize fully that the people with the answers to these questions are not at liberty to answer them here, but I would be interested in any insight into the general biz of baseball and where the Ms may stand in that conversation.
I would lean to “Let’s go broke to win the World Series!!!!!!111″ Maybe that’s why I don’t own a baseball team, though.
Interesting that there are agents and players out there who, despite the prevailing economic conditions, seem intent on keeping a hard line in term of negotiations. LaRoche, Beltre, Branyan (and their agents) seem like guys whose wishes aren’t going to be met by the market and the economy.
I suspect that, when the dust settles, we’ll look back and decide that the smartest free agent signing in the off-season was the guy who signed first – Chone Figgins. Like Raul last year, Chone got a deal done for a reasonable – but not exorbitant – amount of money and locked up his roster spot. And like last year a lot of guys, e.g., Bobby Abreu, who sign late are going to get deals that are far below their old salaries.
If the salary budget is an absolute cap, perhaps the Ms should consider signing Randy Johnson and going with Carp at 1B rather than committing all of our money now. This does two things.
(1) A Johnson signing probably boosts ticket sales a bit. Maybe a small amount, perhaps, but they’ll sell a few more tickets.
(2) Going with Carp lets us enter the season with money to spend in the likely event that teams start salary dumping in June.
For example, Adam Dunn is owed ~$10 million this year by the Nats. They’ll be out of it by May. Picking Dunn up to play 1B for half a season, and getting a good look at him as a possible DH candidate for 2010 and beyond, is an interesting play. Certainly our FO won’t be scared off by his Ks, and the porch in left at Safeco is perfect for a hitter like Dunn who, as they say, is “country strong.”
Picking Dunn up to play anything other than DH is absolutely silly. He is an awful awful fielder, and is much more valuable solely as a hitter.
Raul’s deal was thought to be horrible at the time. And it still may prove to be just that (although the guy seems to revel at proving stat guys wrong year after year).
Dunn and Berkman may be possible in the longshot sense, but Verlander is likely very close to untouchable. The Tigers have three years of control left on him and a bevy of bloated contracts coming off the books after this season. Verlander isn’t going anywhere this year.
The real question is, if Dave is accurate in that the M’s are looking for a 1B, SP, and RP, what is the best possible combination we can find for around $10 million? Luke Scott at $4 million gives us around $6 million to find a SP and RP, and Doumit is similar. Overbay gives us $3 million (or more if the Jays pick up some salary). Aybar would give us the most flexibility as his salary for ’10 is around $1.35 million. But what in the heck are the Rays going to want for him? Too much, probably. And he’s coming off a pretty poor defensive year (was he hurt last season?)
I will be very interested to see how Zduriencik operates given the constraints of the remainder of the budget.
I wouldn’t be entirely opposed to the idea of Mike Lowell at first base. The Red Sox are clearly trying to shop him, and are willing to pay all but 3 million in salary while not demanding too much in terms of prospects. He has less pronounced platoon splits than Overbay, but is also probably a worse hitter. In addition, he ran an ugly UZR at third last year, looking ugly in the process. That being said, he was a good defensive 3B for years before his injury and could transition nicely over to first base.
Given his injury risk, age and handedness, he doesn’t make as much sense as Overbay, but I think he could be a freely available, budget-saving upgrade over in-house options.
I think they already have the first baseman on the roster. Tui
I don’t really see Aybar as available. Aybar got some pretty good run last year (336 PAs) and this is when they still had Iwamura, hurt (260 PAs) for most of the year. They still likely want a partner for Pena and Zobrist. and Aybar is the perfect fit to fill that role.
Aybar is really the only other 1B on their 40-man roster and fits a versatile bench role for pretty cheap, a commodity for that payroll.
That said, I imagine this role gets filled by one of Overbay, LaRoche or Huff. None are exciting, but there is potential there. Personally, I’d like to see a run at Casey Kotchman who is an elite defender who should have some good offensive years in him (still only 26), a page out of the Gutierrez book of Zduriencik targets.
Let’s not forget, the system is looking pretty thin at this point after giving up the trio of Aumont, Ramirez and Gillies. Can’t sacrifice the entire future at this point for a run now without seeing some execution first.
Mike Lowell is having ligament surgery in his thumb and won’t be playing for awhile.
I’m still hanging on to my Doumit love. I blame Dave, who floated Doumit a while back.
I had thought about this too, and if it were a part of a platoon as a part time guy with the Red Sox putting up most of the bill, I may be on board.
There’s a reason the defense has degraded. Lowell is getting old and slow. I don’t see it being much better at 1st than at 3rd. If you want to go “safe” with this roster spot, Lowell isn’t the answer.
Dude is done.
Yes, save the cookies for a mid-season aquisition. Sign someone who doesn’t cost years or specs or go with Carp. That is of course something comes along that is a no brainer.
I wish we knew Branyan’s health status. Could you imagine his first half bat over the course of a whole season?
Dave,
Thanks for the post, I’ve been looking for a breakdown of the options.
You omit Nick Swisher, who is capable of playing 1B and offers some flexibility. He’s a player you’ve advocated for in the past (and it is easy to see why) so I wonder why you leave him off now.
I know the Yankees outfield is a little thin at the moment, but there are OFers on the market and filling the corners should not be difficult for them. On the other hand, they are shopping around for pitching, so it seems like a Morrow/Swisher package might fly. Probably it would be Morrow plus (Vargas/Olson/French?), but even so, but we’ve got some depth in 1 WAR pitchers while the Yanks are low having shipped Kennedy and Coke off for Granderson.
Adam Dunn is the answer at 1B no question.
Washington needs and would love a cheap 2B with power like Lopez. Add a young OF like Saunders to play CF for them, their sold.
This would give us an infield of:
1B-Dunn
2B-Figgins
SS-Wilson
3B-Beltre*
Yes we love our pitching and our defense, but why do people forget what has killed this team and annoyed fans to death? … No game-change, middle of the order, run producing, Power bat.
Dunn answers that, plus gives us another Left handed bat.
Adam Dunn is the answer at 1B no question.
Washington needs and would love a cheap 2B with power like Lopez. Add a young OF like Saunders to play CF for them, their sold.
This would give us an infield of:
1B-Dunn
2B-Figgins
SS-Wilson
3B-Beltre*
Yes we love our pitching and our defense, but why do people forget what has killed this team and annoyed fans to death? … No game-change, middle of the order, run producing, Power bat.
Dunn answers that, plus gives us another Left handed bat.
Russell Branyan was a game changing middle of the order Power bat.
What killed this team and annoyed fans to death was that C, 3B, SS, and LF were shamefully unproductive on offense. Two of those at least have been drastically improved, while the other two may or may not be better but certainly will not be worse.
Dunn is just not worth it.
There are so many things wrong with this idea I’m just going to assume somebody was trying to be funny.
Because there’s no indication the Yankees want to move him, which means you’d have to trade valuable pieces to get him. To the Yankees. Morrow+ (likely a very big +) is too much to pay, particularly when there are other options.
There are a bunch of other players Dave didn’t mention either despite expressing a like for them in the past.
Jose Lopez and Michael Saunders for Adam Dunn – ladies and gentleman, the stupidest trade suggestion of the year.
Washington needs outfielders something awful
Another thing to consider is that, with the Angels’ losses and the Ms gains, management might consider increasing the budget with the increased potential for a division championship. I think it would have to be something that clearly improved the team, rather than a potential improvement. Excitement is already high, and another “oh, wow!” trade or acquisition by Jack Z could really fill the stands, and the extra revenue could offset the increase in budget.
Joser –
Swisher is a three win player being paid like a 1.5 win player. Morrow plus isn’t too much depending what the plus is.
Availability is certainly an issue, but just because he’s not being actively shopped doesn’t mean he’s can be made available. Loney, Scott and Aybar aren’t being actively shopped as well as far as I know.
I could see Dunn being a fit down the line, But obviously you’re not going to get him in anything resembling that trade, and just like every other “pie in the sky” 1B people bring up, he might be a more realistic acquisition Seven months from now.
Another mid-season acquisition I’d be interested in is Carlos Pena. He’s a free-agent next year, and if the AL East goes to New York and Boston again, Tampa Bay will probably be looking for some kind of return before he walks for some real cash.
But obviously you’re not going to get him in anything resembling that trade…
I can’t believe I have to clarify this. Lopez and Saunders for Dunn would be worse than the Bedard deal for the Mariners. Dunn has no real trade value. At $10 million, he’s probably a little bit overpaid. He’s a +2 win player, maybe +2.5 if you’re really generous.
Lopez is a better player who makes 20% of the money. Trading him straight up for Dunn would be stupid. Throwing in the team’s best prospect, who you have six years of control over, is insane.
Adam Dunn is not appreciably better than Overbay. And we’re talking about Toronto having to eat a couple million to get rid of him. You do not want Adam Dunn.
Let me clarify my post. I wasn’t saying that Dunn was worth more then Saunders. He isn’t.
I was just commenting on how poorly envisioned that trade would be for both teams.
I could see something like Morrow for Dunn.
I could see something like Morrow for Dunn.
Let me re-clarify, then – $#!$*^$#@!
ADAM DUNN IS NOT GOOD. DEFENSE MATTERS I CAN’T BELIEVE YOU GUYS STILL DON’T GET THIS ARRRRGH.
Okay, I feel a little better now.
In the interest of further Dave cussing…
Even as a DH?
DH is filled. The team cannot carry any more guys who can’t play the field.
I agree, I was thinking more along the lines of a mid-season “improvement” acquisition in the event Griffey/Bradley are put on the DL or Saunders underperforms and Bradley shifts to LF.
I understand that this may not be such a great idea.
Has anybody thought about Micah Hoffpauir from the Cubs? He’s stuck behind Derek lee at 1B and seems like a good young player with some upside. Just a thought. Maybe a couple of mid level prospects for him.
I’d rather see SEA grab some FA on a 1-year deal/maybe a 2-year (team option) then trade for some of the underwhelming guys mentioned like Overbay, Scott, Loney, etc..
With the market overloaded with 1B’s let wait it out a bit till the marlet comes down a bit then grab someone like LaRoche.
I think Garko could be a sleeper though. He was having a pretty solid season last year till the great CLE fire sale of 09.
Still pretty young, a good, not great hitter & plays good defense. Plus, maybe he & C. Lee are friends & that could help Lee’s transition.
Casey Stengel had a saying for players like Adam Dunn: “I don’t like those players who drive in two runs with their bat and let in three with their glove. That puts me down one.”
Fun facts:
Adam Dunn’s OPS/wOBA in 2009: .907/.391
Randy Winn’s OPS/wOBA in 2009: .726/.321
Adam Dunn’s WAR in 2009: 1.2
Randy Winn’s WAR in 2009: 1.7
In other words, Adam Dunn’s defense in 2009 was so terrible it turned him into a worse player than Randy Winn.
Yes, I know “ZOMG WE NEED A BAT”. Well, we don’t need one attached to terrible defense. No thank you on Adam Dunn.
Did you miss the “Bradley, Carp, Pineda, Olson, and Halman for Miguel Cabrera.” suggestion?
Thanks for pointing that out. That was mine.
Big difference though. I thought Cabrera was more of a salary dump. After looking into a little more, I realize that is not the case. We’d have to give up more. But, are you saying you wouldn’t do that trade?
Dave,
you seem to be holding Dunn’s outfield defense against him when we would only be having him play first. His UZR/150 at 1B was only -25, which is much better than his -39 UZR/150 in the outfield.
That’s 14 runs saved having him playing a full season at 1b rather than the OF!
I’m with the “wait it out crew,” though Kila Kaaihue, is an interesting bat to me. I’m not sure he would be worth trading for, given that he is only a slight upgrade over Mike Carp, and doesn’t have flaming red hair, to boot. I like the idea of trading for an impact bat midseason, if we are still in it in the AL West. It will cost us less than getting that same bat right now. Sign Branyan in January, and I think we are fine, until he goes down with an injury, at least.
Micah Hoffpaiur is a terrible idea, even though he shares my name. Dude will be 30 on opening day, and has shown nothing at the big league level.
Has anybody thought about Micah Hoffpauir from the Cubs? He’s stuck behind Derek lee at 1B and seems like a good young player with some upside. Just a thought. Maybe a couple of mid level prospects for him.
This is an interesting suggestion. I hadn’t thought about that but now that you mention it, he seems to be exactly what we’re looking for. I would rather have had Jake Fox but Hoffpauir could be a solid player and it probably wouldn’t take much to get him.
I still think Cabrera will be moved. Detroit’s not desperate, but now is the best time to move him if they do intend to move him. Here’s why:
Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez will both be traded before the 2011 season starts. The reason is that they are FAs after 2011. The Yankees won’t be involved because they have Texeira. I don’t think the Angels will be because they have Morales and need the money for a #1 starter. The Phillies have Ryan Howard. That leaves the Red Sox, Mets, Cubs, and Dodgers as the other big-market, high-payroll teams.
The Red Sox are hamstrung with Lowell and Ortiz, and just committed $16.5MM a year to Lackey, but you can never count them out. Also, the Ortiz and Lowell contracts will be history after this year, so while they could acquire Gonzalez at anytime, Cabrera would be difficult this year unless Detroit took Lowell.
The Mets could go for one of these guys too. They do have the need, but I think they’ll sign Bay and that would preclude a $20MM first baseman. The Cubs could go for one of them after 2010 when Lee’s gone, but are unlikely to, as long as they have Soriano’s contract. The Dodgers have Loney and a whole lot of uncertainty right now, so they’re probably out too.
The Red Sox and the Mariners are the two teams that have been most interested in acquiring Gonzalez. They both have a strong need at 1B, but there is a substantial premium attached to both Gonzalez and Fielder at the moment. In the end, I think Boston has the best package to offer San Diego and will eventually acqire him. They have Lowell and/or Kotchman in the interim.
So, Dombrowski could decide to move Cabrera now. After Cabrera’s drinking incident, fans probably wouldn’t be too upset about it either. And he’d be better off doing it while the Red Sox are still players and before Fielder and Gonzalez are truly available.
The Tigers have already decided to retool this year by getting rid of Jackson and Granderson. The Tigers also have Ryan Streiby, a highly rated prospect, ready to step in at 1B. While they have tried him in left, he’s a pretty big kid and a natural first baseman. And they are already going with two rookies anyway, Austin Jackson in center and Scott Sizemore at second. Rick Porcello, their #2 starter, is only 21. Alex Avila also figures to get significant playing time at catcher. So the youth movement has begun.
Of course, Granderson, Edwin Jackson, and Cabrera are not exactly over-the-hill players. In fact, they’re all still young. So, this leads me to believe that the Tigers aren’t really trying to get younger as much as they are changing their approach.
Detroit also has many dead-weight contracts coming off the books after 2010. With the exception of Cabrera, they have very little committed beyond 2011. They also want to extend Verlander, just like the M’s want to extend Felix. I don’t think 2010 is a throw-away year for them, but I don’t think they expect to seriously contend either. I think what we’re seeing in Detroit, just like the new General Motors, is a new approach Tigers. A team whose future starts to take shape in 2011. The same year that Prince Fielder will be moved.
I think Fielder fits in Detroit for the obvious reason, he’s Cecil Fielder’s son, but other reasons as well. By 2011, the Tigers will have a ton of money and could trade for Fielder and extend him. The could use, in part, prospects obtained by dealing Cabrera. In addition, Fielder is more valuable as a DH than a fist baseman, plus he brings a needed LH bat to the lineup.
The Mariners fit into the picture because JackZ tends to strike when the seller is motivated, not when they’re expecting a premium. We already know that he has talked with Dombrowski extensively during the Jackson/Granderson dealings. He probably has a clear idea of what Dombrowski is trying to accomplish.
Cabrera has a long-term, fair market value contract, with a bit of character risk. But he is a young, proven bat that would fit very well for the Mariners. He’s the type of RH hitter that could thrive in Safeco – he hits the ball a long way. Plus, he is Venezuelan – just like Felix. That may not be a huge deal, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt either. It also tells Felix we have a long-term commitment to winning. In addition, Felix’s extension could be structured in a way that eases Cabrera’s salary burden. 2010-2012 are the years where Cabrera’s salary taxes the budget. After that, Ichiro’s contract is off the books. I’m sure Felix would be willing to give the M’s the needed flexibility between 2010-2012.
Well, in a lot of detail, that is why I think the M’s could possibly land Cabrera. There are really no obvious good options at 1B right now. Every one of them seems to leave the M’s a bit short of being a true contender in 2010. So, if JackZ does make a big move at 1B, I think it’s more likely to be Cabrera than Gonzalez or Fielder. But, if the Red Sox move on Cabrera, I think we have an excellent chance of landing Gonzalez later on. And that means starting the season with Lyle Overbay or equivalent.
re: Cabrera.
There are a bunch of things I’m not sure about with this line of thinking. The biggest is this.
Cabrera isn’t cheap. Assuming we extend Felix that gives us:
Cabrera | 19M | 5WAR
Ichiro | 18M | 5WAR
Felix | 15M+ | 6WAR
That’s 52M tied up in 3 players.
Assuming you have a payroll of 100M, that gives you 48M to come up with around 30 more wins (90 wins to be in first), or 1.6M/win. That’s a pretty tough challenge year in, year out and it gets worse if one of those 3 guys gets hurt.
We’ve been pretty spoiled with Guti and Lee signings giving us that type of leverage, but I’m not exactly sure that’s a long-term sustainable ability without a deeper farm system than we currently have.
Not sure if Micah is the option. He is a good player but he is 29 and has never been a regular at the MLB level and when he has had an extended run in the lineup he has been decent but not great. Plus Derrek Lee is a free agent at the end of this season and the Cubs might decide to try to rebuild and use Hoffpauir as a stop gap in the interim. Lee is making roughly 13M per and after the production he had last season he might be looking for one last 3-4 year deal at big money before he retires and I am not sure the Cubs would be interested in him. If they plan to let him test free agency or even let him walk then he would be in play at the deadline if a contender needs a 1B upgrade and Lee is willing to waive his no trade. For all of those reasons I don’t see Micah as an option.
So to make a short point long I am not sure Hoffpauir would be available.
That’s a fair point. But the 3 extra WAR (assuming Overbay at 2 WAR) goes a long way for this year’s team. And the 2013-2015 teams won’t have Ichiro’s salary or 5 WAR. It does present a problem for 2011-2012 though.
The main point I wanted to make was that Cabrera is at least feasible, whereas Gonzalez and Fielder are probably too expensive in terms of talent right now.
I don’t know if the deal makes sense overall, but it is certainly better than Bay or Holliday long-term.
Not to mention you don’t get Cabrera just for the price of his contract — the trade to obtain him further strips the farm.
But you might be able to get him because of the price of his contract. And we don’t know what the budget is.
But your trade scenario has us giving up Bradley, who can be penciled in for about 3 WAR. And there is no way we can afford both Bradley and Cabrera. In fact there is no way we can afford Cabrera even without Bradley.
There’s a lot of ways to get 3 WAR and Bradley is possibly the worst (unless you get him for Silva). If the Tigers would take Bradley, then that would make Cabrera cost ~$9MM in 2010 and 2011. And then you could explore other LF options or use Saunders.
Since I don’t know what the budget is I guess you might be right.
Loney has seen progressively declining BA’s, Slg%, OBP, BABIP, and ISO in his three (or 2.5) years as a regular.
During this last year…which was his worst production-wise…pitchers threw more fastballs and sliders and fewer curves and change-ups….
Looks like pitchers have caught up with his strengths ….
He’s a .290/.350/.440 type of guy. Carp will give you that. Forfree.
Keith
Cabrera is great, but his contract seems too long and too big for Jack Z.
I think there is nothing wrong with letting the market come to the Mariners. Perhaps waiting will give us the best out of a 1B-SP-RP signing and then later we can swing the best trade possible, because you know we’ll be front and center for it.
Bradley 2007-2009 OPS – .902 1016AB.
Cabrera 2007-2009 OPS – .931 1815AB.
Bradley 2010-2011 cost – Carlos Silva + 6M.
Cabrera 2010-2011 cost – 40m.
Bradley 2012 – 2014 commitment – 0M.
Cabrera 2012 – 2014 commitment – 80M.
Carlos Silva + $6MM = $31MM
Kazinski,
Maybe I misunderstood your earlier post. Did you think I was giving up too much for Cabrera? I thought it wasn’t enough.
You get that Bradley’s a headcase and can’t stay healthy, right?
I get that he is a risk, but a risk worth taking given his production and cost.
I also get that Cabrera is drunk and unreliable. You get that committing 120m to someone that clocked in a blood alcohol level of .26 the morning of a critical game in a pennant race, which his team ultimately coughed up, is just crazy, right?