Morrow Traded?
Ken Rosenthal just sent out a twitter message stating that sources have told him that the Mariners have reached a “tentative” agreement to trade Brandon Morrow to Toronto for Brandon League and a prospect.
My first reaction is that there’s information missing here. I can’t see the M’s dealing Morrow for a relief pitcher and a prospect as they gear up to win in 2010. There has to be more to this, unless the “prospect” is someone like Brett Wallace, who could step in and fill the gap at first base.
League, if you’re not aware, throws really hard. His average fastball is 95 MPH, and its not a hit-me four seam fastball, but instead a heavy, diving sinker. He gets a ton of ground balls with it, and finally started getting strikeouts last year as well. He could be an elite relief pitcher if he can keep command of his stuff. But, that’s the rub – he’s a relief pitcher, which inherently limits his value. He’s also arbitration eligible and only under team control for three more years, so he’s a short term asset.
That’s why the prospect is obviously the important factor. League is a nice pitcher, kind of like Mark Lowe with more ground balls, but not the value that you give up Morrow for.
Update: Jordan Bastian, a reliable reporter from Toronto, reports that Johermyn Chavez is the prospect the M’s are getting. Chavez is Toronto’s version of Greg Halman – toolsy RH outfielder with power and terrible plate discipline, hit well repeating low-A ball as a 20-year-old last year. Upside, sure, but a long way from the majors and lots of flaws. If true, this is the first deal Jack has made that I truly dislike. Full analysis when its official.
Admittedly I don’t know their system all that well, but unless that prospect is Travis Snyder I can’t think of many other prospects that would A.) impress me, or B.) balance out the deal.
As you said, there’s gotta be something else we’re not hearing yet…
Make this make sense please.
Although League does fit the “shut-my-eyes-and-throw-as-hard-as-I-can” mold of relievers like Aardsma and Kelley
Weirdsville. I like League and all, but doesn’t he already have more service time than Morrow? And League is just as inconsistent (if not moreso) than Morrow, and that’s only in a reliever role to boot. Could Overbay be involved here, too?
Wallace? Snider? Overbay?
Aricibia is who I’m hearing as the prospect.
I’d think if it was Overbay or Snyder, we’d have heard in the initial announcement… But, Brandon League? Really? He’s not bad, but he’s not that good either…
I don’t think Overbay would be mentioned as “a prospect”.
But I’m not sure Brett Wallace would, either. Who the heck knows.
MLBTR forums don’t count as sources.
And Aricibia isn’t that good (.728 OPS in AAA)
sounds like it’s David Cooper
I can’t see Wallace and League being dealt for Morrow. Nor Snider and League.
But with Z, we shouldn’t be shocked by anything…
I can’t see Wallace and League being dealt for Morrow. Nor Snider and League.
But with Z, we shouldn’t be shocked by anything…
I called this awhile ago. Player’s girlfriend’s facebooks are in fact reliable.
Ummmmm….our bullpen isn’t quite 2001 quality but still is rather good as I remember. (And if I’m wrong I no doubt will be corrected.) Where we need help is STARTING pitching. So why trade our erstwhile #3 or #4 for bullpen help? The prospect must be a Mike Carp on-the-major-league-cusp but better 1B or something. Or it’s just a rumor.
Until the details are announce, I’m going to assume that Jack Z is not making a bad trade.
Obviously Jack has more than earned benefit of the doubt. Another move coming for a starter behind this one?
Read in numerous comments on MLBtraderumors (not sure how reliable that is) that the prospect is JP Arencibia. Apparently, he’s a catcher and Blue Jays first round pick in 07. Not sure why we’d trade for a catcher. Are we already giving up on another catching prospect in Moore?
This is like citing Wikipedia in a college paper.
Don’t let little things like facts get in the way of a good story. How about getting the names announced before condemning or praising the deal?
Arencibia, Cooper and Wallace all make a certain amount of sense. Cooper and Wallace moreso, though, as they’re redundant on the Jays, both being 1B. I guess we’ll see…
Just throwing it out there. I’m not saying it’s a certainty, but it’s a name.
Arencibia doesn’t make much sense. His best BB% was 5.8% and that was in A-ball in 2007. Not exactly fitting the mold of the other players we’ve been brining in lately.
Dave posted a trade RUMOR. This is a discussion about it. Let’s not get all uppity with our opinions about opinions on it.
This is offseason has been straight out of Baseball Mogul. Faith in JZ that this deal (if it’s happening) will turn out well. Presumably any trade would significantly help the team in 2010…
Any thoughts on League being converted back to a starter? He’s a groundball machine, so he’d certainly have some upside as a sinkerballer if he could do it. Or do we just leave him alone in the pen?
I feel like a kid on Christmas Eve. I wont be getting any sleep tonight, too excited to see the haul Z got this time
My feeling is that League is going to replace Mark Lowe, who would be a piece of a larger trade. Otherwise, this doesn’t follow the pattern of the 2010 offseason.
Watch, there will be a 3rd team involved. Jack has one of those a year, and the Lee trade didn’t really count.
And/or it will be some really wacky “prospect” nobody thought of, like Brian Dopirak or something.
If we’re getting Wallace in this deal, what other position would we need improvement at (in exchange for Lowe and others, as you propose)?
Maybe Lowe is part of the JJ-type trade of Lopez I still think is on the horizon? ‘checks sky for flying reindeer’
I think the one thing we can agree on is that it’s going to be something completely unexpected.
I’m never going to be at the point where I think Zduriencik is infallible, but I do think he has earned some benefit of the doubt before we go all haywire over who the prospect could be.
That said; If it turns out to be Brett Wallace I will do cartwheels as Jacky Z pulls another rabbit out of the hat.
We’re getting Kyle Drabek just watch and see.
I have never understood why so many people want to trade Morrow. I have liked him since day one and think he could be a solid #3. Am I over valuing him? What makes people want to trade him?
I don’t think you can ever have too many good pitchers. In the roataion or in the pen. I think Jack should collect has many good arms as possible.Not trade them away. What am I not understanding about Morrow?
However I love Jack and trust him. So…
In Jack We Trust
Perhaps missed in all this: will the Lincecum-Morrow comparisons now come to an end?
Great point hub
God I hope so.
Sleep is overrated anyhow, right?
We could very well be facing Jack Z’s first bad decision though.
This is all just a ploy by Z to force the Jan. 9 shindig into Qwest Field.
@behappy
It’s the constant shuffling between the rotation and the pen that screwed up his development and lessened his value.
JP Arencibia is a player that San Diego would be looking for in an Adrian Gonzalez deal. There’s probably more to the story than a straight swap of Morrow for League and a prospect unless it’s Snider or Wallace which is unlikely.
I was just checking out Brandon League on Fangraphs and no matter what else is going on in this year all of his stats point to him having much improved seasons ahead of him.
Is it possible we (i.e., M’s fans) have been overvaluing Morrow this whole time? Personally, I didn’t want to see him go as I thought/think it’s only a matter of time before he puts it together, but thus far in his career he’s not much more than a “potential” guy. A lot of upside, but still very much unproven. I have to think that fact isn’t lost on GMs. Maybe League and a mid-level prospect is the best Z could get for him? I guess we’ll see…
If this is true, all I can say is ew! I hope either a: This is a horrible nasty rumor or b: We are missing something really big. A very good reliever has been on my list at about #3 of things I want to pick up for a bit here but League? I mean he’s not bad but I’m sure there’s plenty of much better guys Z could get. And sending Morrow away? He’s someone I think could mature very well and I don’t want to see him get away. Especially for League and a “prospect”. Lets hope this doesn’t turn out to be the first truly disappointing move from the good doctor.
Where does this fit in the Cameron Smell-O-Vision viability range?
Morrow’s not that good. He’s never been that good. He has 35 starts in college and pros combined. He has extremely little command.
League and a decent prospect would be a fair trade, possibly a win for the M’s.
You can not disagree with the fact that Jack Z has managed to pull off some unbelievably lopsided deals, but you have to remember he is human. I don’t see how this deal could possibly be a phenomenal deal for us. At the most, it is probably a fair trade. If it is indeed this catcher J.P. Arencibia, then I don’t understand the deal one bit. Unless Jack Z intends on trading Moore away in a package for a big bat.
When you’re all finished with your pink panty meltdown you should pause and think about how the Cliff Lee deal came out of nowhere. I smell Adrian Gonzalez…
Maybe the Padres asked for Moore so JZ hedged his bets and went right out to get Moore’s replacement. Saunders, Triunfel, Moore, and Lowe for Adrian Gonzalez…calling it.
@Kazinski
I love your analysis!
We trade Morrow to come up with a replacement for Lowe?
That’s a Bavasi, not a Jack move.
How the heck did this get turned into an Adrian Gonzalez thread? Come on people.
@tayor h
He is still a SP with a ton upside and he is under team control for a few more years. It just seems like he is the type of player you want to acquire. Don’t you think?
The more I think about it, Morrow for League + somebody just isn’t smelling right. If that was it, chances are the details about the unnamed prospect would already be leaking out.
Overbay + League + somebody for Morrow + somebody, perhaps… Or it’s another three-teamer.*
* = (c) 2009, Jack Z.
People are clinging on to the hope that this isn’t Jack Z’s first bad decision by bringing up the possibility of an even bigger move (Adrian Gonzalez)
As a Jays fan I have to say this is unreal. And not in a good way for us.
League’s the superior pitcher. Better control, better stuff, keeps the ball on the ground, and doesn’t walk everybody like Morrow does.
Despite what the casual Jays fan will say, you guys shouldn’t be disappointed. League’s got a 3.09 or so XFIP last year, thanks to a 55-60% GB, a mid 90′s fastball, a 9K/9 and a 2.5 BB/9.
The report says that the player that has yet to be named, is a prospect. That would mean no Overbay.
[that is not cool]
Maybe they misspelled “Olsen” when they said “Morrow”.
Let’s not forget the Wilson/Snell trade that Dave wasn’t a big fan of or the resigning of Wilson.
@behappy
Z apparently takes issue with the developmental issues. I personally think Morrow will become a successful starting pitcher, but Jack Zduriencik knows better than I.
@ Sports on a Schtick,
You could be right, but I think a lot of M’s fans think highly of Morrow and his trade value (not saying they’re right, just saying I think most people thought we could get more than League and a mid-level prospect).
Maybe I’m in the minority, but I just wanted to see the M’s put him in the rotation and leave him there for a full season to see what he can do. Either prove the organization right or prove them wrong, but get an answer either way. Their handling of Morrow was pretty embarrassing.
There is absolutely no evidence at the present time that Z is indeed human. He is a Jedi master. There’s something we haven’t heard yet and/or something else or bigger in the offing. Let’s be patient. In Jack We Trust.
I’m guessing we won’t know too much tonight, yeah?
I’m sure Ken Rosenthal is having a good laugh about all of this.
Oh! I get it!!
Erik Bedard is a girl!
What a kneeslapper.
I’m just saying that, Jack Z is actually a human, and I just don’t want to get built up for a very possible let down. The chances are, Jack Z isn’t going to make an unbelievable trade every single time. I could very well be wrong, but in my opinion, all signs are pointing to GMZ making an even bigger deal after this one.
Man, everybody goes off the deep end so quickly. You folks have your fun; I’ll just wait for the announcement.
Mariners2620, you keep repeating this. Are you obsessed with seeing the glass half empty (when all we have are rumors of a glass), or are one of those tall poppy types who secretly hopes that the team gets worse just so you can rub it in the noses of everyone who has been singing Zduriencik’s praises recently? Or maybe you’re just a big Morrow fan? Whatever the case, isn’t it still a bit early to be writing the obit for Jack’s Amazing Technicolor Offseason?
The thought does occur…
At any rate, I intend to play some ODST, go to bed, eat breakfast, and THEN see what the heck is up.
These things never turn out as expected with Zduriencik.
Maybe Jack Z sees Morrow as another Meche, always just aboout nearly ready to be maybe really pretty good.
Its going to be so nice to not have to listen to guys like Mariners2620 on sports radio before and after every Morrow start talk about how we could have had Lincecum, Jack is bringing back good value for Morrow and we have the added benefit of not having to listen to Cletus in Enumclaw talking to Brock and Salk about Bavasi and Lincecum.
Haha no, I am not waiting to rub it in everyone’s face. I just got done writing, how I hoped that I was wrong. I am just trying to settle everyone down, because like I said, it is very possible that everyone could be let down. It’s going to be awful if you are expecting for Jack Z to pull an amazing deal out of his ass, and then he comes up with League and an egh prospect. I’m just trying to keep myself from getting too hyped up before the info completely comes out.
Per Geoff Baker it is just a rumor. It that means anything.
I have no idea if it’s true but a catching prospect like Arencibia would make some sense because the cupboard is bare in the minors for catchers right now.
Last year at this time we had a log jam in the minors with Johnson, Clement, and Moore coming up fast, and Johjima signed to a long term contract. Now while we have two young catchers in the majors, and we just signed a journeyman backup, there isn’t anybody coming up in the pipeline.
Brewers didn’t want Morrow/Lowe+ for Fielder but they WOULD accept a League/Moore+ package? Just a quarter-baked theory.
Or Zduriencik simply likes League over Morrow. Sometimes it IS that cut-and-dried.
it is possible it is Arencibia, they did get a Philly prospect in the trade who is a catcher D’Arnuat or something like that. Zach Stewart is a top rated RHP as is Mills and Cecil. Snider would be great but I doubt Z-man is that good. My bet is Stewart or Wallace who plays 3b since Z-man did not get Gamel from the Brewers. But, the guy has no ML experience. Scouting report: A pure hitter from the left side, he has good plate discipline and the ability to hit for average and power. “A good athlete stuck in a bad body” is the perfect phrase for him as he’s more athletic defensively than people anticipated. He showed he may be able to stick at third as long as he watches his conditioning.
Upside potential: An All-Star-caliber bat at third base, he’ll never win a Gold Glove, but he can stay at the hot corner and his bat will play in the big leagues soon.
They said it: “He’s just a very polished hitter. He came to us that way and he’s done everything we expected and he’s brought more defensive aptitude than we thought. He’s not the prototypical third baseman as far as his body type, but he’s got more athleticism than you would initially think.” — John Vuch, Cardinals Director of Minor League Operations
Ahhh. Occam’s razor strikes again.
how about this guy: Wade Davis
Born 9/7/1985 (24 years old)
RHP, TB
Jacob McGee’s old rotation partner in the Midwest League, righthander Wade Davis is the proud owner of a 3:1 K:BB ratio and a 1.30 WHIP.
And since Tampa runs its team on young pitchers, good luck and gasoline fumes, he’s bound to get a shot sometime in 2009, though probably only in a limited way. We like him as a starter, but some may prefer the fastball in the pen, especially after how effective David Price was in a limited relief role last year before ‘graduating’ to the rotation the following season. Right now, Davis might have the highest upside of any pitcher not named Strasburg.
What about him? He’s with Tampa Bay. We traded with Toronto.
This is apropos to nothing close to what this thread is about. Get your facts straight.
1st Round pick 2005-Jeff Clement-GONE!!!!!
1st Round pick 2006-Brandon Morrow-GONE!!!!
1st Round pick 2007-Phillipe Aumont-GONE!!!!
1st Round Pick 2008-Josh Fields-?????
Maybe jack is just cleaning house and getting his own kind of players in here.
And then if Ben Sheets signs here on Wednesday, this makes plenty more sense as well. You could reasonably expect Sheets + Security Blanket Random Extra SP You Already Have to give you the same amount of quality innings as Morrow… with the considerable upside a healthy Sheets brings you.
I meant this guy: The Book on Brett Wallace
Prospect Info
TOR Brett Wallace
Born 8/26/1986 (23 years old)
3B, TOR
One of the most-traded young bats in the minors, Brett Wallace is a power hitter who’s already been the third baseman of the future for the Cardinals and Athletics. Now he’s a Blue Jay, and one good thing about that is that he’s likely to get a shot sooner in Toronto. A nominal third baseman with slow feet, most scouts seem to think he’ll need to be moved to first base sooner rather than later, but the A’s certainly wouldn’t mind a slugger at that corner, either. Some saw Wallace’s bat better than any other hitter in the 2008 draft. The way he sliced through the Midwest and Texas leagues last year, he won’t be idling in the minors much longer. With little left in his way, his big lumber should be an everyday fixture in Toronto before the end of 2010.
@fiftyone
I don’t think we’d have the money for a 1b if that happens.
@bseblifevr
I think Wallace is the ideal fit right now. Snider is very very very unlikely.
Hello and welcome to the fourth post in this thread. Do try to catch up.
I wonder if another shoe is going to drop soon, I would think Jack would not trade Morrow unless he was pretty far along in negotiations on another starting pitcher either a FA or a trade.
In my fantasyland, Armstrong and Lincoln have deeply, deeply fallen in man-love with Zduriencik and have convinced Yamauchi that THIS is the season to crank up the budget. Not by a significant margin (this is a well-grounded fantasy) but by enough to sign one more nice piece.
I have no basis for this fairy tale. But I do believe, as Dave has mentioned and re-mentioned, that another SP has always been on the shopping list, even ahead of a 1B, making Morrow somewhat redundant anyway.
Seeing as how we don’t necessarily have the greatest starting pitching depth in the league, I would imagine as Kazinski said, we would have some kind of negotiation going on right now with a starter. Possibly Ben Sheets. Again, just an idea.
Geoff Baker reports that Morrow is on his way for a physical and League is coming here for the same thing.
Sorry, strike Yamauchi from my comment, replace with Nintendo. Showing my age.
Welcome back… JARROD WASHBURN!!
@mariners2620
They do not have good sp depth? Really? Because I’m pretty sure Felix, Lee, RRS, Snell, is a pretty sweet starting 4 then we have French, Vargas, Fister, and Olsen for number 5. Some of these guys are not great, but have great potential like Snell. In my opinion starting pitching is no where close to as big of an issue as another good inflielder.
All of those guys are egh, we don’t have solid guys. We don’t know if any of those guys outside of Felix and Lee can give us 200 innings pitched. Snell has only done it once, Ryan just came off of an injury and could get injured again. French is still new, but from what I saw, he cannot give you 200+ innings. His outings were between 5-6 innings. Fister was solid, but I think that the smart hitters in this league will figure out that he likes to throw strikes, and will eventually start smashing his 88-90 mph fastball out of the park. All of these guys could end up being phenomenal, but I doubt it. Vargas and Olsen definitely aren’t the answers.
Why is Morrow going to Florida for a physical and not Toronto?
Rumors on ESPN, credible source I know…. is that the mariners are looking at Bedard. I’m all for this by the way. Bedard is a top of the rotation pitcher when healthy, but if he ever gets there again is questionable. One thing is for sure, he won’t be ready by spring training meaning he can’t throw too many innings
Rumors on ESPN, credible source I know…. is that the mariners are looking at Bedard. I’m all for this by the way. Bedard is a top of the rotation pitcher when healthy, but if he ever gets there again is questionable. One thing is for sure, he won’t be ready by spring training meaning he can’t throw too many innings
Rumors on ESPN, credible source I know…. is that the mariners are looking at Bedard. I’m all for this by the way. Bedard is a top of the rotation pitcher when healthy, but if he ever gets there again is questionable. One thing is for sure, he won’t be ready by spring training meaning he can’t throw too many innings
Breathe, Grasshopper, breathe……
Let’s see what the facts are before we start discecting a ghost prospect. I for one am glad that we shipped Morrow out.
I think Fister is going to replace Jakabouskas (are we still expected to be able to spell ex-Mariners names?), as a strike throwing RH long reliever. I think we need to do better than Olsen or Vargas, even if we get a stud at first base we are still going to be no better than league average scoring runs.
I hate to bring this up but Bradley is the only significant improvement we’ve made so far offensively, Figgens will be a marginal improvement over Beltre. So we either upgraded LF or the DH. Whoever we get at 1b will be a minor upgrade at best over Branyan. Hopefully Moore will be an upgrade over Johjima/Johnson last year, but that’s a big if. If Bradley primarily DH’s I don’t think Hall/Saunders/Langerhans are going to add any runs over last year at LF.
So it seems to me the big opportunity to get better that is feasible now is the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation. Maybe Brandon was too big of a risk and Zdurincik wants to bring in more of a sure thing, which is why he was expendable.
Who are Toronto’s top 5-8 prospects this year? Anyone up on the Blue Jay system?
Adam N,
Thank you
thank you
thank you for the update.
But Bedard won’t be ready realistically until the Allstar break. You don’t trade a projected starter in Dec. to open up a slot for a maybe in July.
Maybe trading Morrow means the M’s are going to sign somebody like Ben Sheets. He would be worth the risk.
If RRS, Felix and Cliff Lee are definitely in the starting rotation, and the M’s planned on adding a second starting pitcher during the offseason, doesn’t it mean Snell and Morrow would have been fighting over the last spot in the rotation?
If the M’s like Snell over Morrow, doesn’t it almost require that they traded Morrow? Otherwise, he might lose the 5th starter battle and head to the bullpen. That seems like an unacceptable option with the way Morrow has bounced from starter (06) to reliever (07) to starter (08) to reliever (early 09) to starter (late 09).
Hold up folks, After this year Lee is gone, and after 11 Felix will most likely be gone. Why in the world would you send Morrow anywhere for a relief arm that Jak Z gets dam near for free “Aardsma”. The Mariners are going to need Morrow filling a 2-3 Rotation spot after this year. This does not pass the sniff test. That prospect better be gold plated…
My views? Anyone short of Brett Wallace in the deal would be disappointing. Man, would our offense look better, with Wallace we’d have to be close to projecting as a league average offense.
Even if we had to throw in a piece with Morrow to make League/Wallace come back, I’d love to see it. However, perhaps this is like Jeff Clement: a guy we all knew had loads of potential . . . but is slowly revealing that it may never be reached. Perhaps we are all overvaluing Morrow. Maybe selling now is smart as compared to giving him another year or two to prove he won’t ever control where the flip the ball is going.
As for the ESPN Bedard rumour, if Bedard would come REAL cheap . . . it might not be bad to have him in our back pocket for a division/playoff chase. It’d kind of be liking trading for him at the deadline and if he’s cheap enough, we might even be able to take on the risk of having Sheets and Bedard on the roster.
Let me know if this seems reasonable: Bedard has amassed ~2 WAR per season the last two years, but still has the potential for 5 WAR seasons. 3 WAR seems like a good estimate if he were able to pitch the full year. Since he won’t be back until the ASB, and has no guarantee of being healthy and/or effective after that, projecting 2 months of actual production seems fair. If you prorate 3 WAR over 2 months, that is one WAR. So best case scenario, he may get $4 million. If the market is extra leery of his injuries and he will be available for $2 mil or less, I’d love to see him back here.
Seems to me Jack might be willing to give some of the questionable guys a better shot at a real full time starter type position and decided to bring in a little extra relief pitching in case they can’t get it done. And getting a prospect so we still have something in the farm.
I like the idea of balancing homegrown/free agent talent. I don’t think we’ve ever had both going well at the same time. I think Z can bring it to Seattle.
Some random thoughts. I always liked Brandon Morrow. That stretch in 2008 when he was just throwing gas as a closer was awesome. But I do remember the discussion here about how a bullpen-to-starter transition is unlikely to succeed and how the initial treatment of Morrow under the Bavasi regime may have essentially spoiled his chances of being a breakthrough star. And I think, Zduriencik may have a bit of the attitude toward Morrow that Billy Beane had to Jeremy Bonderman, i.e., that he doesn’t fit the mold of the kind of pitcher he’s looking for so he wants him gone. I remember them talking last summer about the chart on the wall where they were crossing off the names of the 40-man they inherited in the fall of 2008. Who’s left now? Felix, Ichiro, Lopez, RRS, Johnson and Moore, a couple of bullpen arms maybe? I can’t imagine Lopez will be starting his spring in Peoria unless he’s in a Padres uniform somehow.
I could spend a lot of thought trying to figure out this trade…but since I have complete faith in Z…I won’t.
I’m sick of dealing with the Blue Jays. They took Jose Cruz Jr. from us and will never forgive the Mariners for that. Also, I’d be happy if I knew League would bring consistency, instead of upside like Morrow, but I know that’s just too much to ask.
Morrow was only ever going to be able to pitch 150 regular season innings and that only if he stayed healthy all year. If the Mariners sign another starter (they will) then who is going to be the first kicked out of the rotation, the guy who can only pitch 150 innings in a best case scenario. So now Morrow starts the year in Tacoma waiting on an injury or ineffectiveness, does anyone else see the headache this could have become.
So Morrow gets traded for League +, this does pass the smell test as it fits perfeclty with winning now. Aardsma, Lowe, League, White and Kelley. That is five power arms for the back of the bullpen that begin to remind me of some of the Angels bullpens of years past and the Red Sox bullpens of today.
This also says to me that the Mariners are putting far more faith in Fister as a starter than I ever would. After signing another starter, Fister and French are clearly the frontrunners for being the sixth guy and should anchor the Tacoma rotation. This is my least favorite part of this plan and my only hope is that one of Dan Cortes or Nick Hill can really come out dealing in AAA and move up the depth chart.
As for who Toronto sends as the prospect it doesn’t really matter unless ‘Trade Czar Z’ gets a Wallace or Snyder. For some reason Snyder’s name keeps coming up in rumors and has for about three years now. And the Jays have said publicly this offseason that he will really have to impress in Spring Training to have a spot on opening day. I don’t know if the Jays are really down on him or it just seems that way, but it is hardly justified. He is about as blue-chip as it gets and reminds me of a bigger, stronger and just as fast Snelling (before the injuries). Having said that, I doubt it is him or Wallace.
Others have mentioned Z getting rid of Bavasi players and that is probably part of this as well. I doubt very much if Z would have selectd any of the same players as Bavasi and evidence suggests that is justified. Don’t hold your breath for Fields leaving though because if Z didn’t want him he could have just not signed him last spring and gotten a pick instead.
throwing a name out there because I saw him play at safeco and hit a home run. If Jack Z could get his hands on adam lind this would make a lot of sense too. a dh/1b/of type (granted not very good at fielding) with lefty power. i doubt he could pull something off with just morrow…but you never know with jz. and also im not sure if adam lind fits the term “prospect”.
i don’t think its wallace, i think the mini trade to get him was one of the main reasons for the halladay trade going through, because the jays wanted drabek and dominic brown but would take taylor if they could get wallace with him. also if overbay OR lind get moved theres every-day starting room for wallace (lind would have to spend some time at dh during the year), so if the jays like wallace enough (which they do) and value 4 years of morrow enough, i could see them trading lind
backdoorslider said it perfect, its like christmas eve and in the mornin im gonna wake up and come open my computer and see what we got…. hopefully we’ll know by then.
Since Adam Lind just got done posting a 3.7 WAR season for the Blue Jays, I don’t think he’s a “prospect” anymore. Also, with 4 years of club control left I’m fairly certain he’s currently more valuable than Brandon Morrow.
Zduriencik traded Clement for less than he was worth to acquire a player he liked perhaps a little more than he should have (Wilson). The deal was a little more than that (it included Cedeno and prospects we probably won’t miss, and also netted Snell), but that’s basically what it amounted to. It was a means to upgrade SS with a player Zduriencik really liked.
At first blush, that’s how this Morrow deal looks to me. Matthew at LL puts it well: League compares well to Aardsma, and his 2010 CHONE projection as a reliever is superior to Morrow’s. League is a better, and less risky reliever, but Morrow’s upside and potential as a starter makes him more valuable, which is why the Jays included another prospect to balance the deal.
While it would have been nice if Morrow had been part of a package deal to land a mega star, League should be a slight upgrade over Morrow in the pen, and most likely, that’s where Morrow would have been for us anyway. If the other prospect turns into an adequate contributor, then this becomes actually a very good trade for Seattle I think. Of course, like the Clement trade, this is a bit of a letdown considering our perception of Morrow as having a lot of value to other teams, but not an outright bad trade by any means.
This fills the 40-man roster, so another trade is likely before the Mariners acquire a free agent. Right?
If you want a little overview of some of the Jays prospects on a non-pay site, Fangraphs has a couple from last spring; unfortunately, they’re just getting started with “Minor Reviews” for this season and they haven’t done Toronto yet — obviously some of those guys graduated to the majors over the summer, and they just got some from Philly in a deal you might’ve heard something about.
Z is a good evaluator on talent, and maybe he just doesn’t see it in Morrow. So he’s cashing in for a reliever that is projected to be better, and a prospect to help re-amp the system with his guys. Not every trade has to be stamped “Jack’d” for it to help the Mariners.
Looking at Toronto’s 40 man leads me to believe it is someone not on it. And man does that team have problems, they are sorely lacking in position players (talented ones anyway), and a lot of their arms are injury risks. Then you look at the build of a lot of their pitchers and see why a handfull of them flame out every year. Taking a chance on the occasional short and/or slender pitcher is o.k. Like the Mariners are doing with Robles. But with the Jays most of their talented young pitchers are short, slender or both.
Times like this make me glad that Dave pulled together that Twitter-list of Ms writers.
This has to be the first step of a secondary move, but the second move may not be directly related to this deal. Morrow just doesn’t seem like he is worth League plus Wallace. Even if he could fetch those two guys, I don’t see the FO handing the 1B job to a rookie like Wallace, especially not this season when we are trying to win it all.
The other problem with us acquiring League plus Wallace is that it fills up our 40 man roster. That would mean we are going with a rotation of Felix, Lee, RRS, Snell, and Olson/French/Vargas, and that doesn’t make sense either if we are trying to win it all this year.
My guess is that, in fact, we are getting League plus an interesting prospect who doesn’t have to be placed on the 40 man roster. And that the FO is still working on deals to acquire another SP plus a 1B, which would mean that another current M is about to become a former M.
One more thing. We know that Z is a huge fan of organizational depth. In fact, acquiring depth is more his MO than swinging deals for guys like Lee and Figgins.
Most likely scenario is that we are getting an above average reliever we can rely on, and a nice player who might become something some day. Less likely scenario is that we are getting League plus Wallace, but that Wallace is getting packaged with additional Ms on the 40-man roster for either an SP or 1B.
Baker says the prospect is not Wallace.
I suspect that Z has a deal lined up for another SP which made Morrow expendable. Either that or he has more faith than I do that he can find three reliable starters to fill out the rotation among the gaggle of SPs he’s accumulated. RRS is the only one I have much faith in right now.
If it is Zachary Stewart then the trade is a win. Stewart is in line to throw about 140-150 innings this year, about the same as Morrow. He is under control for six years and the pitcher Z signs to be #3 starter will most likely be viewed as an upgrade over Morrow by just about everyone.
If its Zach Stewart, who is not on the Jays 40-man roster, I presume that he can be added to our roster in Tacoma. Is that right?
We still need 1B and SP, which means that Jack needs to transform our excess arms into one more above average player.
Morrow for 2 relief pitchers doesn’t sound particularly good to me. I like League and Stewart sounds like a promising bullpen arm but I’m still a bit underwhelmed. The only thing I can fathom is that our coaches are convinced that Morrow’s command isn’t getting any better.
This deal can’t be true. Stewart is one of the Jays top pitching prospects and is groomed to be a SP.
There’s just no way that the Jays would trade the better pitcher in League AND give up one of their top prospects to get an overrated reliever in Morrow.
You’re aware that Morrow is the better player by dint of being a starter, right?
If it is League and Stewart, I wonder if the M’s scouts project either of them as a starter?
Both have started in the Minors. Although League hasn’t done much starting since 2005 in AAA.
Stewart started all 7 games he appeared in at AA last year, but then at AAA he was just a reliever. Stewart has really come up fast, he was only 22 last year, pitching at AAA.
Apparently Toronto saw him as a starter but used him in relief in AAA last year in preparation for possibly bringing him up? Stewart would seem to be a starter long-term if he can stick there.
I like the deal.
On the roster thread a few days back, I suggested a deal w/ Morrow to Houston that got erased, suggesting getting Felipe Paulino, Chris Sampson & JR Towles in return.
This seems like a risk-management type of deal, which is what I was also suggesting in the Houston deal. Morrow remains a high-risk player; his walks, his make-up and his health are all potential red flags. If the Mariners see him as a long term reliever, it makes sense to disperse his upside and manage his risk. As a reliever, both League and Stewart offer similar ceilings, and combined they perhaps match the amount of risk Morrow himself contains. To me, if Morrow is ultimately a reliever, it’s like doubling the potential ceiling of Morrow (either or both of Leauge/Stewart could be similar shut-down bullpen guy) while halving his risk (it’s less likely both League and Stewart implode) (am I incorrect in my sense that they have about as many red flags combined that Morrow has by himself?).
Stewart jumped three levels last year, and his MLE era from last year is 4.06. He also started 14 games last year.
Potentially, then, Stewart could be the starter we thought Morrow could have possibly have been, and League could be the reliever we thought Morrow could have been.
Basically, there are multiple ways in which this trades shakes out well for the Mariners.
I think the problem is that we all had this pipe dream of trading Morrow to MIL for either Fielder last year or possibly Gamel. Obviously MIL did not value him as much as we do or that deal would have been done.
GMZ probably got the most value out of Morrow in this deal. We’ve all drooled about what might be with Brandon…however we may have seen all there is to see.
Stewart was a reliever in college. He started 14 games in A+ and AA but then went back to the bullpen in AAA for both the Reds and the Blue Jays (after the trade). I’d assume he’ll be a reliever as his experience starting is very limited.
I’m getting ahead of myself though, Dave only said that Stewart “could” be the guy.
Just for reference, here’s what Fangraphs had to say about Stewart at the deadline last year:
You’re aware that Morrow is the better player by dint of being a starter, right?
I’m aware that most people believe Morrow is a starter but I don’t agree that he’s capable of it. He throws his FB 70-80% of the time. He doesn’t throw his secondary pitches often because either they’re not very good or he doesn’t trust them. His minor league record includes a 4.1 BB/9 (going off memory) and a less than 2:1 K:BB ratio.
As a starter he has a 1.45 K:BB ratio thanks to the fact he has no idea where the ball is going. That makes me very, very nervous.
He’s 25. I don’t consider him a prospect anymore. I understand he’s a former first rounder, and I realize that he has good “stuff”. But based on his track record (which is, admittedly, a smaller sample size than I’d like to go on), he’s been extremely unimpressive.
So while I understand his value is higher if he can start, I don’t believe Morrow would be an effective starter unless he develops another pitch or magically develops better control.
Maybe he does figure it out, but I wouldn’t want to gamble on League & Stewart to find out. I’m normally all for trading RP for SP, as 200 innings > 70. I just don’t see Morrow as a good pitcher, and it’s hard to argue based on his performance to date.
This is one of those times I’d love to be wrong though.
IF you’re right, and League compares to Aardsma, perhaps this is another JJ Putz deal in the making. Dr Z dealt an overvalued commodity in JJ for a ton of core players. After Aardsma’s good year, could obtaining League mean that Z is going to flip Aardsma in a similar deal?
Just heard from a source close to Brandon Morrow that Lyle Overbay is in the deal. He doesn’t fit the “prospect” tag that Rosenthal gave the second player coming back to Seattle, but it makes some sense. Overbay is a .360-.370 on-base guy, LH hitter who might hit 20-25 HRs playing at Safeco and he’s only signed through 2010, leaving the M’s open to explore deals for Gonzalez or Fielder (or a free agent 1B) next winter.
I’d expect we’ll have full details on all the players involved in the trade in the next few hours.
That would certainly flip the trade heavily in favor of the Ms.
Per my earlier post in the thread, I’d assume if Overbay were included, we’d be sending someone else to Toronto as well. May not need to be much.
The Morrow for League + prospect idea, alone, doesn’t pass _my_ sniff test. It doesn’t have the feel of a typical Jack Z deal.
Then again, maybe it’s all part of something bigger. Z’s deals frequently need to be taken in a bigger context.
Just had a thought and I am not sure if anyone mentioned it earlier, I tried to read all of the comments but I am at work. Is it possible that this is a trade that was part of the Halladay, Lee deal that got separated from that deal?
We had all read numerous reports that prospects from the Mariners were going to Toronto and that it was a 3 team deal. It turned out that the deal changed over time but perhaps Toronto and Seattle agreed to finish this deal in a couple days after the Lee, Halladay fall out had settled down? Morrow had been rumored to be part of that deal as well. Not sure if this makes sense or not but I was thinking it was possible that the Jays and M’s had this part of the deal worked out already and were just waiting to announce it.
Don’t forget about the cash aspect with Overbay. If SEA is taking on his salary and not getting cash back then that lowers the return TOR would get back.
If the Overbay rumor came from Buster Olney, it was just a poorly worded sentence talking about Blue Jays veterans being traded for younger guys. I don’t think it was meant to imply Overbay was coming here; Buster just decided to use crappy English.
It’s Brian Jeroloman
If it is Overbay he fits right in to what Jack Z wants. His OBS has actually risen the last 3 years since his first years 372 with TOR. He is a very solid glove. Think a poor mans John Olerud.
I like Overbay fine, League should fit our bullpen, but I wonder about our rotation now. I also don’t see a power upgrade overall vs. 2009, if these are the names in the deal. Of course Z is probably not done. Dude is tiring me out.
It appears that Overbay was only rumored because someone misread a Buster Olney quote. I don’t think he is part of this deal.
Can Jack Z please stop making trades. I need to get some freaking work done. We need to get this economy on it’s feet and I am spending more time on Twitter then working.
I’d be okay with Overbay but only if we platoon him. Just crunched some #’s and his wOBA in ’09 vs RHP was .389. Lefties, not so good (career wOBA is .317). I’m hoping if he’s part of the deal that we’ll go short in the bullpen and bring in a RH platoon partner (Ryan Garko? .382 lifetime wOBA vs lefties).
Now the rumor is Brian Jerolman. As Dave just tweated, he’s a catcher prospect who can’t hit.
Jerolman makes no sense to me, if he is the prospect to be named I’ll be really disappointed.
We can get Overbay at anytime. The Jays have no use for him and want to get rid of his salary.
Jerolman also had hip surgery this offseason. That makes no sense to me. I know we have depth issues at Catcher but he is El Stinko.
I wake up everyday hating Bill Bavasi more and more.
Now all 3 players from his biggest blunders as GM are off the team.( Silva signing, Bedard trade and passing on a local kid that tore up the college ranks and instead drafting Morrow)
He did hit when he first got to AA:
AVG OBP SLG OPS
2008 AA – .270 .396 .416 812
He then got called up to AAA and struggled. And then struggled all of last year in AA. Could have been the injury or confidence but he is rated as a very good receiver. Nothing wrong with a good defensive catcher and if he could put up similar number to his 2008 AA numbers in AAA then all of sudden you are looking at a pretty good prospect. That is a big IF though.
Jerolman would be a pretty big disappointment and I just have a really tough time believing JZ would go there.
From Jordan Bastian of MLB.com
According to MLBtraderumors.com:
“MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian tweets that minor league outfielder Johermyn Chavez will go to the Mariners in the trade.”
If Bradley primarily DH’s I don’t think Hall/Saunders/Langerhans are going to add any runs over last year at LF.
Mariner LFers last year:
.219/.276/.333/.609
Ryan Langerhans, career:
.232/.332/.379/.711
You pretty much have to declare Langerhans/Hall/Saunders a complete disaster to think LF won’t be at least somewhat better than last year.
As for Morrow for League+… I guess it works out, I suppose Zduriencik thinks Morrow is going to be in the Todd van Poppel class of first rounders, not the Roy Halladay one… though it’s going to suck if Toronto ever teaches the guy an effective 3rd pitch.
Jordan Bastian saying it’s MiL OF Johermyn Chavez.
Jordan Bastian is saying it is Johermyn Chavez. 20 year old OF prospect that played A ball last year and batted .283/.346/.474 with 21 homers and 89 RBI
Baseball times had this to say about him November 12, 2009 as their #1 prospect
1. Yohermyn Chavez: He’s not a prototypical No. 1 prospect, but Chavez has middle-of-the-order potential and a strong work ethic. But he is still raw, and his bat needs to improve across the board. Call me bullish, but he is near the top of the list of breakout candidates for 2010.
Maybe it is Johermyn Chavez, and someone thought they heard “Jerolman”.
This deal sort of smells like the M’s are buying overvalued talent, rather than undervalued talent.
That was also true with the Wilson deal.
Guess we’ll find out in the next couple of days when the physicals are complete?
Hardball times rates him the Jays #1 prospect:
Toronto Blue Jays
1. Yohermyn Chavez: He’s not a prototypical No. 1 prospect, but Chavez has middle-of-the-order potential and a strong work ethic. But he is still raw, and his bat needs to improve across the board. Call me bullish, but he is near the top of the list of breakout candidates for 2010.
Baseball times had this to say about him November 12, 2009 as their #1 prospect
1. Yohermyn Chavez: He’s not a prototypical No. 1 prospect, but Chavez has middle-of-the-order potential and a strong work ethic. But he is still raw, and his bat needs to improve across the board. Call me bullish, but he is near the top of the list of breakout candidates for 2010.
[use the link button]
Well, I certainly would have loved League/Stewart. Chavez isn’t exactly toolsy; he seems to be a sort of poor man’s Jose Tabata (current version of Tabata, not the mega-hyped Tabata of a couple of years ago), and to be at least 3 years away.
Strange deal.
That kid Chavez is a big kid….again, it links back to the fact that we already have an overload of prospects waiting to fill in at left field (Saunders, Ackley, Halman, now Chavez). It would only make sense if Jack Z ends up trading Sean White as Baker implyed and one of our other out fielders for a bat.
Johermyn Chavez? Who is that joker?
That kid Chavez is a big kid….again, it links back to the fact that we already have an overload of prospects waiting to fill in at left field (Saunders, Ackley, Halman, now Chavez). It would only make sense if Jack Z ends up trading Sean White as Baker implied and one of our other out fielders for a bat.
Hardball Times is terrible at rating prospects. Chavez doesn’t make BA’s Top Ten. Overall I’d say Toronto wins this deal but there is a chance Johermyn develops into something nice.
That kid Chavez is a big kid….again, it links back to the fact that we already have an overload of prospects waiting to fill in at left field (Saunders, Ackley, Halman, now Chavez)
Let’s see. Ackley hasn’t played much pro ball AT ALL, and Halman just spent 2009 hitting .210/.308/.364 in AA, so obviously they both need to be in the lineup tomorrow.
No,I didn’t say that, but Chavez played in Single A last year. He isn’t ready either.
Chavez: [link]
No way he’s their #1 prospect. Playing in low A ball at 20 isn’t out of line and he doesn’t have a lot of patience at the plate. It’s rare to see a free swinger suddenly develop patience so he’ll probably always have that flaw in his game. At least he has power…21 homers last year.
Not a big fan of this trade but, like I said, maybe the coaching staff is really down on Morrow learning control.
We got who? I dont understand this deal at all.
I like Dave’s comment ‘ we traded more for League than for Cliff Lee’.
I don’t like this deal either. If there wasn’t much of a market for Morrow then hang onto him and hope he shows some development in 2010. Bleh.
“We got who? I dont understand this deal at all.
I like Dave’s comment ‘ we traded more for League than for Cliff Lee’.”
Yeah, that is indeed what it sounds like. Maybe this is part two of the Lee deal.
Well, he shows more plate discipline in that one clip from Seatown81 than Halman had shown all last year.
Z returning to his scouting roots in this trade?
Watched the YouTube clip. Know what popped into my head? “Welcome back, Wladimir Balentien!”
The only way I see this is a win is if Brandon League throws on some Ricky Vaughn glasses, turns into a dominant closer whom we call “Major League” and we flip him for twice his value next winter.
Meh, Morrow didn’t have a ton of trade value, but I would have liked to have seen something more fit for a 2010 push than this.
With a first name like “Joe Herman,” Chavez must be some sort of Venezuelan hillbilly.
BoneGar made an interesting comment. Is there any chance this is part of the deal that brought Cliff Lee here? Morrow had been mentioned as being a piece of that transaction. Just wondering if this is some clean-up and balances out what looked like a lopsided deal for us…
If these were rumors under the Bavasi regime I’d be at about a .9 on the pucker factor. However, I do trust King Jack implicitly because he has shown a tremendous amount of skill and forethought with all his moves so far. I’ve got to believe he has something else up his sleeve. This trade feels more like a domino than it does a finished product so I’m gonna ride this pony until proven otherwise.
Kinda reminded me of Jose Guillen in is his stance and swing.
As far as the trade is related, not Z’s greatest but overall balanced in my opinion. It gives the M’s a solid 7th or 8th inning bridge reliever but costs them a #3 or #4 starter with upside. If the M’s are done here, I am disappointed as this move creates a bit of a hole in the starting rotation. Overall, I see it as .5 – 1 WAR lost in this deal as Morrow and his 2 to 2.5 WAR is replaced with Doug Fister or Yusmeiro Petit and French, Olson or Texeira are replaced in the bullpin. Not major, but not the type of moves we have come accustom too this off season.
I am just hoping that the other shoe drops and we get a nice xmas present of a SP or 1B as a result of this move.
Interesting trade…not sure how I feel about it, and certainly would make more sense with more context as it may be the precursor to a subsequent move. I think it speaks to:
1. Morrow’s low trade value. We all expected a bigger return for our top pitching prospect, but obviously the perception around the league is lower than we imagined. It may have been a better idea to hold onto him in hopes that he improves his value this season, but maybe the brass think there is a low probability of him doing that.
2. One of our late inning relievers is gone. Who they will be going to is anybody’s guess, but Z has made it clear he’s going for it in 2010 and making a hole in the rotation to fill one in the bullpen doesn’t pass that test in a vacuum.
3. Z sees much better value in the free agent market for SPs with upside than with relievers. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a 1 yr deal on one of the remaining high risk/return free agents in the next few days. I’d rather see us spend $6 million next year on a potential +2-3 win starter than Mike Gonzalez (ahem, Orioles).
I think perhaps Big Z got hosed on this deal, unless there is/are some non-public factor(s) involved.
Why the wait? There was certainly plenty of time for the Lee trade to be finalized for this to be worked out also.
[Zduriencik]
Is there a record for te amount of tranasactions done in he space of 3 weeks?
I think Z is either trying to clear out guys that are not his type of players or this is part of a bigger deal and League will replace a guy like Lowe or his going somewhere in a trade for a bat.
Is there a chance we are getting a couple of prospects?
If we take a minute to set aside our hopes and dreams for Brandon Morrow and instead look at the numbers, it’s surprising how close he and Brandon League match up. In fact, looking at just the career numbers, League probably is better.
Morrow is always getting hurt, can’t find the plate when he needs to, and hasn’t shown the ability to mix up enough pitches to be a starter.
Overall, I think we’re getting a fair return.
Brandon League
202 Career Major League IP
1.5 WAR (Major League Career)
4.30 FIP
3.71 xFIP
1.59 K/BB
.225 Opponent Average
62% GB%
Brandon Morrow
198 Career Major League IP
1.3 WAR (Major League Career)
4.56 FIP
4.73 xFIP
2.11 K/BB
.258 Opponent Average
35% GB%
…so Morrow’s potential upside as a starter is worth a flailing A-ball outfielder?
It is very possible that this is just an average trade. I highly doubt it though, seeing as how Jack Z understands that we need another bat at 1B. Everything seems to add up to us making an even bigger trade for a much needed bat. With the addition of League, one of our set up men now becomes expendable. With the addition of Chavez, Halman and Saunders become expendable. Obviously one of those two alone would not be what is given up. But it seems as if Z is simply giving the organization some depth in order to trade away some of the guys that other organizations have interest in.
Chavez might make Halman expendable but unless the trade is for a left fielder I can’t see Chavez making Saunders expendable since right now he seems to be in the plans for significant LF playing time this year.
Chavez is a left fielder.
Who like Halman is not major league ready.
This is a bit of a headscratcher but I am sure Jack has his reasons.. Brandon League seems like he could be a solid reliever though.
I understand that, but how long do you think it will take these guys to reach the majors. If Ackley, who the Mariners believe will be ready in 2011, is going to be taking over LF, then where does Saunders go. It’s not as if Ackley and Saunders are only going to be Mariners for 1 or 2 years. They are probably going to be here for a while. Which means, when Halman and Chavez are ready in 2-4 years, Ackley and Saunders will still be there.
BoneGar made an interesting comment. Is there any chance this is part of the deal that brought Cliff Lee here? Morrow had been mentioned as being a piece of that transaction. Just wondering if this is some clean-up and balances out what looked like a lopsided deal for us…
Maybe Chavez wasn’t able to take his physical right away and the M’s wanted Lee badly enough that they did this deal on a hand shake until now… It’s a stretch, but seems to even out this deal and the Lee deal as well.
I think a lot of people are deluded about Morrow’s actual value. He can throw hard, so there is theoretically some upside there. But there are lots of red flags – injuries, inability to throw strikes, inability to throw any plus pitches other than his fastball, arguably poor judgment – to indicate he likely won’t achieve that upside.
Looking at Morrow’s risk/reward value rationally, I think this is a fair deal. Maybe even a win for the M’s, as League has a better chance of being a light-out reliever than Morrow has of being a league-average starter. Plus, the M’s got Chavez.
It looks like an even deal on paper. We’re not certain that Morrow is any better than League in the long-term. However, this is a real punch to Morrow’s gut. It’s like Jack is cleaning house and telling him he had his chance. Whether or not Brandon learns a pitch or two with Toronto is seemingly no big loss to the M’s if they can get what they think is immediate equal value. The other aspect of this is the hope that Jack shuffles for another trade. But why would he do that now with guys of lesser value? Why not give Morrow another shot?
It’s almost like how Carlos Guillen was shipped out before the M’s knew what they really had.
To me, it doesn’t seem like a terrible trade and Jack is likely to hit a few bumps in the road. Still, good things come to those who wait, and maybe Jack is getting a little trigger-happy.
Mariners2620, exactly how do Saunders and Halman become expendable becasue we, possbily, picked up a guy who’s played two years of A ball? I might give you Halman, but no way does Chavez make Saunders “expendable.” Saunders may go for other reasons, but not becasue of Chavez.
I would like to introduce the average USSM commenter (not the head honchos) to a concept called “tools”. Tools typically refer to things like hammers, screwdrivers, and circular saws. However, in the context of baseball prospects, “tools” refers to a player’s raw ability that might or might not be reflected in his present performance. I provide the following examples of 20-year-old outfielders in A-ball as a demonstration.
Player A: .263/.296/.354, 2 HR, 31 XBH, 25 BB, 59 K in 480 AB.
Player B: .283/.346/.474, 21 HR, 49 XBH, 40 BB, 137 K in 508 AB.
Player B is Johermyn Chavez (sometimes spelled “Yohermyn”). Player A is Alex Rios. Yes, Chavez’s contact skills are worse. And I honestly have no idea what the scouting reports are on Chavez, other than that there are some. But it isn’t fair to start considering this a loss or a bad trade just because hardly anyone has heard of the prospect and before we hear any scouting reports on the guy from Churchill, Law, Sickels, Goldstein, BA, etc. Give it a chance.
Done with my snark now, thanks for participating.
At this point in time and until Jack Z declares it a failure Ackley has been moved to 2nd base.
Personally, I think this trade was prompted by the obscure MLB rule mandating that every team carry a Latino with a bizzarely spelled name beginning with Y. Yuniesky out, Yohermyn in.
CCW, I absolutely agree with you.
idaho: nice try but that’s why we got yusmeiro petit
In addition to my snark on tools, I also absolutely agree with CCW. Morrow was a decent fit to stay with the M’s since he has upside you can dream on and don’t want to give away for nothing. But those are the easiest properties for a fanbase to begin to overvalue.
And Ken Griffey Yunior….(groan)
I also thought Morrow would catch more in return but I will assume Jack knows his trade value better than I.
I hear the complaints that it’d be better to keep him if his value is this low but I disagree. If we add another veteran rotation piece as is rumored then he has no place in the rotation. Snell becomes our #5 and Morrow is back to the pen…again.
In that case why not trade him for someone Z feels could better in that same bullpen role and an upside prospect.
Given the scenario of adding another rotation piece, this deal follows the pattern of making us better this year while adding system depth.
Maybe the M’s just got tired of Morrow, so they decided to get what they could for him. Also it is reported that Justin Duchscherer is ready to sign with one of three teams. Could the M’s have been secretly talking with him and that’s the deal in waiting. He’s the perfect #3.
Easy Nostrodamus. You’re basically saying all prospects turn into capable major league players, which is definitely not true. Who knows if Halman will become anything, who knows if Ichiro could be traded in a couple years. Ackley is working out at 2b if you haven’t heard also.
C’mon, we don’t need to be worrying about 4 years from now OF depth.
s.
That’s what I was thinking. Doesn’t he have some history with Wak? I’m still figuring out how to evaluate the stats but his numbers seem pretty darn good.
Not excited about signing Duchscherer. If we want an injury-prone pitcher, we might as well re-sign Bedard.
Bedard is out until at least July. Bedard is not an option.
I guess when you make many good moves like Z has you are entitled to have one or two so-so to bad ones.
Before you bash Z with a sledgehammer though over this trade, you have to ask yourself how many phone calls and e-mails were exchanged about Morrow.
Last time I checked, the general consensus was that Morrow was only a throw-in for a blockbuster trade (which we’ve already accomplished in the offseason) and he would be nothing more for us than a #4 or #5 starter.
This trade doesn’t address any of the current holes we have to fill still in the offseason such as lefty-specialists in the bullpen (i.e. Sherrill), one or two more power bats and NOW a #4 or #5 starter.
BUT, we still have a lot of offseason left. . .
So I wouldn’t sweat this trade too much.
What this trade does say is that Adrian Gonzalez is not available right now, at least not to us.
georgmi, I should have marked up my post with the tags. I want neither Bedard nor the Duke of Hurl.
It evens out the Cliff Lee deal for us (somewhat – we still win there), but the Lee deal was already ok for the Blue Jays. It was the Phillies that got screwed on the Lee deal. If we were making this trade with the Phillies then that might explain it.
Well, crap, that didn’t work. My point, georgmi, is that I was being sarcastic, not serious, about Bedard.
Well, at least this will give everyone something to ask about in January at the event.
Along with “what was the story with Langerhans release and signing?” and “How did you get Cliff Lee? No, really, how did you do it?”
I’m amazed how many of you think Seattle is getting ripped off here. Morrow’s career BB/9 is 5.8, which is downright atrocious. Sure, he may have a decent starter’s ceiling, but there’s also a very good chance he doesn’t become anything more than what Brandon League already is, and that’s a reliever who posted a 9.16 k/9, 2.53 bb/9, and 3.16 xFIP this past year. For a team intent on competing this year it wasn’t a good idea to be relying on Morrow in the rotation, and they just shored up their bullpen with a worm-killer who throws in the high 90s with extremely heavy sink. League is going to be very good in that park and in front of that defense. He’s also a very fun player to watch.
[off-topic]
I think it is because Morrow could, possibly, be a decent starter and if not, then a decent reliever. And a starter is more valuable than a reliever. And Morrow is under club control longer than League is.
Depending on what happens next, this might end up making the Mariners a better team, but it sure does look like a trade where more value went out than is coming back.
Dave tweets:
But that’s not surprising, there are a lot of fantastic prospects in the minors that you wouldn’t want on your 25 man roster. Nobody is claiming that he is anywhere close to MLB ready.
Yeah, him not being taken in the rule 5 doesn’t mean anything.
But wouldn’t he have been available in the minor league portion of the draft, rather than the major league portion?
Kazinski, good point. And because he wasn’t taken in the Rule 5, he is not even on TBJ’s/Seattle’s 40-man roster. He will be eligible for the Rule 5 again next winter, so this year is pretty big for him.
Now that I’ve had a chance to see the numbers, League looks like what managers and GM’s usually want in a closer. League might even be your backup closer right now, which means he could step in if anything happens to Aardsma. Like if Aardsma gets Putzed to another team. Or Zduriencik could even Putz League himself after 2010 or 2011 or some breakout season.
I like to imagine how future versions of us could be talking about how Z turned JJ, the DA and Major League (great nickname) into three or more 5-WAR position players in the space of three seasons.
I already mentioned that earlier in the thread (8:55). You have to wonder if there’s another trade in the works.
But as always, we won’t know until Z runs us over with the news. I wonder if Z gets more consideration because of the fact that none of the news is leaked until the trade is very close to completion. It certainly wouldn’t be a dealmaker, but perhaps the other teams appreciate it.
Zduriencik knows more about Morrow than any other GM, it’s his job to try to know more about him than anyone else, and his knowledge (overwhelmingly likely) surpasses what any of us offer this discussion. Keep in mind that if his knowledge advantage leads to a negative evaluation of Morrow, it’s smart for him to conceal that for as long as he holds the contract. In that case, the effect on this discussion would be for us to overvalue Morrow relative to what astute fully-informed analysis would conclude. This is Zduriencik. This is not Bavasi or Woodward, where the extra things they “knew” that we didn’t turned out to be forehead-splappingly idiotic.
Or this could be a mistake, or the tail of the Lee trade as others suggest.
[no]
Paul B I agree. As it is right now Morrow is living off of the 8 inning one hitter against the A’s and his draft pick. Power arm is great but they pulled a Mike Campbell and brought him up before he was ready.
Mike Campbell…that’s been a while. A former co-worker was the sacrificial opposing starter in a high school game against Campbell’s Newport Knights. He remembered that it was deflating to watch a half-dozen scouts putting away their clipboards and radar guns as he walked out to the mound.
pulled a Mike Campbell
I’d compare Morrow’s career path to Billy Swift.
Baker is reporting the prospect is Yohermyn Chavez!
Actually according to some of the background written up by some of the local reporters, that was exactly why Philly went with Seattle for the Cliff Lee side deal when they were talking to Toronto about Halladay. I can’t dig up the links right now as I’m about to go out the door, but if you look through the Stone/Drayer/Baker posts after the Lee deal that seems to be the case.
Paul Swift was put into the bullpen because he was 5-10 to 6-0 and Lefevere thought he was too small to be a starter. I can see the parallels because he went to SF and COL and did well. The thing is that when he broke with the M’s he started 86 games before going to the pen. Morrow never had that chance and Swift had one of the best sinkers I have ever seen.
The other connection between Swift and Morrow is that they both came to the bigs too fast, neither really knew how to pitch and then both ended up going back to the minors to try to learn how to pitch.
Yes one major difference is that Swift was allowed to try to learn to be a starter in the Majors and Morrow wasn’t. But I do see a lot of parallels.
That’s an apt comparison. Swift was overvalued and frequently overpaid for most of his career as teams played the “will he or won’t he start” game. When he was a starter, his starts were short and he tended to get injured under that workload. He was a useful player and potentially valuable if his price didn’t include the assumption that he would start. As a completely extra player with a low salary, Swift would have been a nice addition. But usually a team had agreed to invest real money in him, and that made his drawbacks very frustrating.
Some pitchers increase their value by being able to pitch well in either role. Part of the downside on a player like Morrow (or Swift) is the opposite: he reduces roster flexibility because the team doesn’t know what roles he’ll be able to perform. So the team has to both hold a spot for him and keep more reserve talent in case he’s useless.
It sure feels that most of what everyone is saying is based on the fact that they’ve spent the past few years waiting/wishing/hoping that Morrow would turn out to be great.
If this was a trade between St. Louis and Tampa Bay Im not feeling people would be so freaked out. Why is Morrow’s “potential” more likely then another prospects “potential”?
There seems to be 5 ways this trade makes sense:
1. An M’s scout in Venezuela saw something, called up Jack and convinced him that Chavez is going to be special (conversation was post Rule 5 draft).
2. This is the final piece of us getting Cliff Lee and shows that it was really a 3 way/team deal.
3. Z is purging the system of ATB (all things Bavasi) and took what he could get (I am tempted to launch into some BTO lyrics, but will spare you all…). “and his mind is set, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. b-b-b-baby” Okay, sorry
4. League will be the next Aardsma
5. Mentioned numerous times…, this is a precursor to another trade.
6+ WTF?
Good point. I can see the similarities. To even further point out the irony. The smallish Swift could never handle the workload of a starter. They have always said that they took Brandon because of his size. I would rather not beat a dead horse, but there is a certain pitcher who if we took talent over size we would not have had to get Lee.
You’d rather not beat a dead horse, but decided to anyway!
yea, I have a flair for the obvious.
I’m hoping, but not hopeful, that this will allow that babble to finally come to an end.
It won’t. I’m sorry.
It looks like League will be a quality setup guy or closer if Aardsma gets hurt, but I still think Morrow’s upside as a starter was high enough to keep him around for 2010 to see if he was going to finally develop into his potential. Z must either see something in Chavez that he likes or believes that Morrow is unlikely to ever get a handle on his command problems.
Z,
What have you done for me lately? Some of your earlier trades MAY have been OK, but this one seriously blows.
Jon
FWIW, I heard a Toronto baseball writer interviewed on KJR and it’s obvious that he does NOT value Morrow as high as many M’s fans do.
He said the Jays traded their frustrating pitcher for the M’s frustrating pitcher, with a “nice piece” prospect thrown in to even out the deal. He laughed at the idea that the Jays would have given up Wallace for Morrow.
So it looks like Morrow’s trade value was much less than some people (including me) thought … I trust Jack Z to get the best value he can in a trade and this appears to be all we could get for Morrow.
One man’s babble is another man’s King Felix
No, it’s really not.
If we look at the trade like this:
Morrow, Aumont and two prospects for CLIFF LEE, Brandon League and a prospect
It’s really not as bad…plus League has some kick-ass tattoos and wears a mean looking set of glasses…perhaps he could show RRS where to buy some…
What confuses me is the Morrow/Kelly for Edwin Jackson trade that was supposedly turned down by the M’s. This trade makes it seem as though Kelly would have been the plum in that trade and Morrow was the throw in.
[babble]
Does it not worry any of you that the best BB/9 Morrow has ever put up is 3.6 in college? He has a LONG way to go before he can be considered anywhere close to being a top flight starter. It’s always fun though going to the rival team’s site and getting their fans’ perspectives, so I thank you guys for that. And yes, the idea that some Ms fans thought the prospect could be Snider, Wallace, or Stewart is downright retarded.
I don’t think anyone (or at least anyone worth raking seriously) ever thought the trade was Morrow for League + Wallace or Snider. I think the belief was that a lot of details were being left out and that more could be going to Toronto from Seattle than Morrow, which would have made one of those names more reasonable. But hey, good on you for assuming the worst!
This new trend of fans of other teams showing up just to be abrasive is getting really old, really fast.
Stupid Canadians LOL
I just don’t get it.
Why give up on Morrow now?
Its not like our bullpen was so bad that we needed to trade Morrow. I would have put him #4 in the rotation to start the year. (Its not like he is any worse than the crap we have in the back of the rotation now. Vargas, Fister, French..and the other 0war pitchers we have) And the worse case you just put him back in the bullpen. He is the about the same value as new guy anyway if not more.
So the upside to this trade is Johermyn Chavez? I thought Jack is building for this year. This trade just makes no sense.
Many of you seem to need some perspective on this deal that I, as a Twins fan, may be able to provide. I criticize many of the Twins’ decisions regarding major league players with established track records. Frankly, they’re not a very smart organization in that respect. I always give them the benefit of the doubt on prospects and upside decisions, though, for two reasons: First, we as outsiders just don’t have access to all the information needed to make an informed evaluation of players who don’t have much of a statistical record to work from. Second, the Twins’ organization has a long track record of being right most of the time. So does Zduriencik. He’s one of the five least likely people in the world to make a mistake on this kind of decision. Enjoy it, and let him do his thing.
I get what you’re saying, but this is a really bad way to introduce it.
Seriously, if this (and the Wilson-Snell deal) is the worst we can expect from Jack Z, I think we’re going to be all right.
A pitcher who may or may not put it all together and certainly didn’t fit into the franchise’s long-term plans was traded for a useful piece that solidifies the team’s bullpen and allows them the freedom to go after a FA for the rotation.
If the M’s were convinced that Morrow wasn’t going to be able to handle the workload in the rotation, then the trade makes sense. After all, League+FA Starter probably has a higher WAR value than Morrow+FA Reliever if you assume Morrow can’t stick in the rotation.
Fair enough, I apologize if that came off as a bit dickish. I think the point stands, though. We as fans generally aren’t well-qualified to second-guess the pros on prospect decisions, especially when the pros in question have a track record of excellence in said decisions.
I like this trade from the M’s perspective. Why?
Because Morrow’s stock is probably (imo) going to fade as:
1) He proves he can’t stick as a starter.
2) He sees his ERA skyrocket as the powerful AL East takes advantage of his very bad control and flyball tendencies.
3) His extreme flyball tendencies play a lot worse away from Safeco and with the Jays’ horrible, horrible outfield letting his flyballs drop for hits.
League’s stock is probably going to rise as he’s good enough to be a closer (peripherals are good, and he’s a groundballer too), and will show it with the awesome defense the M’s have. Then Jack Z might trade him to the Astros for way too much and you will all be happy.
Then there’s a guy with a lot of upside in Chavez who hit a lot of home runs, who has more chance to improve his BB-rates than Morrow does, imo.
And as a Jays fan, I like this even less. With Stewart, Rzepczynski, Romero and Cecil we already have 4 young pitchers with some upside (good strikeout rates in minors and most have shown quite good groundball rates) who have (except for Stewart) already faced the AL East some. Then there’s Marcum and perhaps even McGowan/Litsch coming back from injury, and some guys that could be used as number 5s like Richmond, Purcey and Tallet. So I see Morrow being a bullpen guy, and a lesser one than League at that, plus we lost Chavez, one of a very limited number of hitting prospects we had (before the Halladay trade).
This trade may be looked upon as another moment of Jack Z genius in the not-so distant future. I’m not liking this trade at all.
I do like the idea of this method of manufacturing potential trade commodities. Take a pitcher put him in a friendly park with outstanding defense and “viola” you’re trading Jarrod Washburn at the deadline for prospects or whatever. I wonder if they couldn’t do the same thing with Carp with Ichiro! Figgins and possibly Bradley hitting in front of him he could have a good number of RBI possibilies.
Also from the M’s perspective, given their stated goal to acquire two starting pitchers this offseason, it was no guarantee that Brandon Morrow was going to be in the Mariners rotation to start 2010. In fact, there seems to be ample evidence to suggest that he wouldn’t be.
So, now you have Felix, Lee, ?, RRS, and Snell.
And whoever fills in that ? is probably going to be a more reliable starting pitcher than Morrow has proven to be. At least for 2010, League is likely to be a more effective reliever than Morrow would be. If the M’s are truly going for it this year (and I don’t think that’s in doubt), then the marginal cost of Morrow’s upside against League’s is worth it, because it frees up a rotation spot for a better free agent pitcher, and upgrades the bullpen.
[what does this have to do with Brandon Morrow, again?]
I don’t know if that’s a typo or a Frank Viola reference, but either way it’s genius.
As both a Toronto and Seattle fan the deal makes sense as Morrow needs a full year of minor league development as a starter as Bavasi and Z rushed him. The M’s just couldn’t afford leaving him down in AAA as they are going for the AL west. Toronto knows they are below .500 they can leave Morrow in AAA to work on his other pitches and control.
League has excellent bullpen stuff and is more ready to help win games in 2010 than Morrow.
Yohermyn Chavez is a long shot, if he works out great more than likely hes another Wlad.
So a deal that makes sense for both teams but I think in the long run Toronto will come out ahead but then sees that chance now and is going for it.
In terms of impact on the rotation, the comparison isn’t, nor should it be, Morrow vs. Vargas/Fister/French but Morrow vs. whoever the Mariners acquire to replace him in the rotation. It’s clear that they didn’t value him as a starter. (The Blue Jays clearly did, but did not think he was worth much more than League and a toolsy outfielder). It’s worth looking at it as a piece of a whole, rather than on its own. In other words, as what Morrow+FA reliever impact would be vs. the impact of League+FA starter. Given the FA market for mediocre relief pitching this year, and the higher value of starting pitching, I’d rather go with the latter.
This isn’t a great trade, but I wouldn’t call it a bad trade either. Let’s give it a “C.”
I’m kind of “meh” on the trade. League’s not a bad reliever, and although I like Morrow more than some, as of right now he sure seems like a pre White Sox, right handed version of Matt Thornton.
In the 2001 draft when Zduriencik was the Brewers’ head of scouting, he had a good look at Brandon League. He took JJ Hardy just ahead of League in the second round.
I don’t know what that means, just interesting. Oh, and it was great to come across this coverage from a year ago when Z was hired. Best Decision Ever.
I wonder if the Ms could’ve gotten a more exciting return for Morrow from the Brewers….
[meta]
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I just want to know where all the “don’t value Morrow too much” people were (not just here, on other blogs as well…) when there were rumors of trading Morrow and Kelley to get Edwin Jackson. Or all the scenarios where Morrow was part of a 3 or 4 player trade to get Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez, or the rumors of possibly being able to exchange Morrow for Gamel one for one, and so on.
Zduriencik cashes Morrow in for a reliever and a prospect – a significant downgrade from the scenarios imagined around the Mariners blogosphere thus far this winter – and suddenly Morrow was never really all that, and the trade is mediocre but really what more could you expect to get for him, etc.
Looking back on the draft from a few years back, I only picture Bavasi channeling Steinbrenner from Seinfeld talking about the Buhner/Phelps trade.
“Well, Lincecum was a good prospect, no question about it. But my baseball people loved Brandon Morrow’s arm. They kept saying “Brandon Morrow, Brandon Morrow.”
Bad trade. Simple – M’s gave up too soon on Morrow. He is going to be 26.
Randy Johnson record during his 26th year –
7-14, 4.82 era, 5.4 bb per 9 innings
Mark Langston record during his 25th year =
12-14, 4.85 era, 4.6 bb per 9 innings
Not saying that Morrow was destined for greatness, only that the M’s quit too soon. This one could come back and bite us on the ass.
Dude, the guy broke his leg on a comebacker hit so hard the sound of it hitting his leg echoed throughout the Kingdome. (I was sitting upper deck 2nd row behind the plate.)
I can still hear that. I actually had nightmares about it.
Is there a reason JZ and AA haven’t hooked up yet on an Overbay trade? Are the Mariners planning on contending with Mike Carp as their starter? I really thought the League “plus a prospect” report was wrong and it was going to be Overbay + cash. Lyle is from the area and would fit in well with Seattle’s tremendous defensive reputation. I’ve always thought he was underrated as a player (Jays fans hate him) and Seattle seems the one place he could go and get appreciated because of his defense and OBP, even though he won’t hit you 25 HRs.
During the recent baseball winter meetings, Mariner beat writers reported that they heard from various sources that “…Morrow was on the trading block…” Jack Z. must have evaluated his plan for the five starters, and Morrow did not fit his plan. I like Morrow, I hoped he would have done well, but as long as Jack Z. gets someone better, who can help win now, this year, I will be very happy. How long will Jack Z.makes us wait to see his new rotation ?
Speaking as a Blue Jays fan who also follows the Mariners (proximity to real live MLB is good), I have to say that Brandon Morrow seems to have been overvalued as an asset by most readers and commenters here. Much of his service time has been burnt up by the prior management, he has demonstrably poor control and a questionable future as a starter, his stuff is really not comparable to AJ Burnett’s as some have suggested … now does this mean Jack Z. sold him for a song? Time will tell, but Brandon League has the makings of an effective quality reliever in him and he’ll be under club control for several more years. If the prospect coming to Seattle pans out, I predict Jack will coming off looking like a genius (as he often does), and even then Morrow might never turn the corner.
I’m willing to give Z. the benefit of the doubt on this one. It’s not as mathematically awesome out of the gate as Cliff Lee or Guti. It doesn’t have the on-the-field upside of Bradley vs. Silva. It’s an old-fashioned talent evaluation trade, and Z.’s been pretty good at those, too. And given his pace this month, he no doubt has more up his sleeve, and this is part of a bigger picture. League *will* bolster the rotation. Jack knows starters are more valuable than relievers, yet he views Morrow as expendable. So Z. has legitimate reasons to believe Morrow was less valuable than League+ whomever would replace him in the rotation. I trust that he is right, whomever it is. He’s earned it.
“League *will* bolster the rotation.”
Argh, I meant bullpen, of course.
Although I read a lot of comments by fans on this and other blogs about possible trades of Morrow plus somebody else plus somebody else for Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, or a similar player – I never read about any team actually proposing such a deal to the Mariners!
Assuming that Jack Z is not completely overrating League and Chavez, and that he was thorough enough to check the interest of other teams in Morrow before agreeing to the Toronto trade, (and I think he deserves our assumption that he is a good evaluator of talent and that he is a very thorough hardworking GM,) then Brandon League plus Chavez is the best deal the Mariners could get for Morrow.
Whether we should have traded Morrow at all is another question, separate from whether we maximized his trade value. Obviously Jack Z valued Morrow’s potential contribution to the team less than some commentators here. I’m not really knowledgeable enough to have an opinion of my own – i just have to decide who to trust. Although I have a long standing tradition of trusting the USS Mariner over Mariner GMs, I am going to break with that on this one.
One reason to trust Jack Z on this, is that in a recent Baseball Prospectus interview with Don Wakematusu. Wakematsu says re player acqusitions,
“Jack has done a wonderful job, first and foremost, of including just about everybody in the organization as far as having some input in what’s going on, and I’m no different. Jack runs just about everything by me, and wants my opinion, and in turn we’ll turn around and get dialogue from the coaching staff. And he does just the same on the scouting side, so I think that’s the important, key ingredient in any organization, that the leader makes people feel that they’re part of the process and has some ownership in it. He’s done a wonderful job with that.”
So unless Jack Z made this trade with a different modus operandi, he heard from a lot of people in the organization before he made this trade.
I am just anxious to hear Z on all of this tomorrow….
I love the argument where people acknowledge a player probably won’t have a certain value, but compare them to someone who did anyway.
I heard Yohermyn Chavez is the next Ryan Braun. Now, it was me I was listening to, so beware the source. Still…. Ryan Braun, that guy’s good.
I think we’re all overvaluing Morrow because we see what’s-his-name winning Cy Youngs and being a dominator and we can’t help it because Morrow was taken before That Other Guy and we were all trying to WILL Morrow to that same level. I think since Jack Z didn’t make that draft decision he sees Morrow as a what he is – a fifth pick in the draft with heat, hardly a secondary pitch, and erratic control. I also think the new staff is glad not to have to deal with the uncertainty that Morrow presents, making this a bit of addition by subtraction.
As a football fan, this reminds me of when the Seahawks traded Ahman Green. Green was drafted in 1997 by Dennis Erickson, only to be traded in 2000 by Mike Holmgren, who couldn’t stand Green’s fumbling. Holmgren was willing to give up the potential of Green to avoid the risk that came with his fumbling, and it was easier to jettison Green for Holmgren because he wasn’t Holmgren’s pick.
My first impression was that I did not like the trade, as I thought we could get more for Morrow. After reading though the above comments, I now think it’s a fair trade. I get that it’s relatively easy to find bullpen arms, which is the biggest flaw for this trade.
However, League should be a reliable arm (a little upside, probably no downside) – so kind of goes along with Dave’s argument of minimizing risk. The unknown here is the health of Sean White. Perhaps this is an insurance policy for our bullpen. We don’t have great late-inning bullpen depth at the MLB level.
[formatting]
Wow. My bad on the formatting. I apologize for that. Try again…
I really like the advanced metrics that USS Mariner has advocated to evaluate hitters and pitchers. However, it is easier for me to understand the hitting numbers than the pitching numbers (my flaw).
Therefore, I made my own spreadsheet of Mariner pitchers, below. Because the hitting numbers are easier for me to understand, I find it easier to crudely apply hitting numbers to pitchers, to get an idea of how well a pitcher does at preventing hitters from getting on base and slugging. It may seem kind of backwards, but it works for me.
Here are the 2009 Mariners pitchers, using hitting stats to demonstrate their pitching skills, and separated into tiers.
OBA / SLG / OPS
Aardsma .283 / .271 / .554
White .279 / .302 / .581
Felix .287 / .318 / .605
Bedard .298 / .329 / .627
Lowe .295 / .369 / .664
RRS .295 / .374 / .669
Lee .317 / .382 / .699
League .325 / .411 / .736
Kelley .302 / .440 / .742
Snell .352 / .393 / .745
Morrow .353 / .402 / .755
Jakubau. .308 / .461 / .769
Fister .313 / .469 / .782
Batista .373 / .411 / .784
Vargas .327 / .476 / .803
Olson .338 / .497 / .835
French .375 / .520 / .895
Silva .390 / .583 / .973
Conclusion:
League is about as good as Kelley in our bullpen, and a bit better than Morrow. (Maybe League’s numbers will improve this year, based on comments from other prior posts. e.g. Snell, Vargas, and Olson all had better OBA, SLG, OPS numbers for the M’s in 2009 than with their prior teams)
Here is why I think this trade makes sense as is…no conjecture on how it sets the M’s up for future deal.
If you haven’t got the new Baseball Annual, I hope Santa puts it under your tree. In talking about the AL East, it makes an interesting point about the Yankees:
In other words, while it’s common to look at the strength of the top two starters, perhaps overlooked is the importance of that same tandem at the end of the bullpen.
Now, our bullpen was great last year, right? Can’t either Lowe or White similarly team with Aardsma? In terms of FIP, you can make that case. Lowe was 3.60, White 3.86 and League 3.58. But in terms of a power arm in the eighth inning, White sort of falls by the wayside. His K9 was only 3.92 compared to 7.76 for Lowe and 9.16 for League. More importantly, he was shut down all of September with an arm injury.
So that leaves Lowe as the logical eighth inning guy. Two differences come into play here. His BABIP was 290, while League’s was 322. But the greater disparity was HR/FB. Lowe’s mark was 7.4%, while League was more than twice that. It’s hard to see how Safeco could not help League in that regard.
So moving forward, if Jack’s concern was finding someone to help nail down all of the one-run games we seem destined to play, League to me appears to be a MUCH better bet to help form that tandem at the end of the game.
Forget the toolsy outfielder of the future. I think this move can be defended straight up.
(And finally, there’s a case to be made that upside wishes aside, last year Morrow and Snell and Fister and Vargas and even Jabauskas were all the same pitcher–each with FIPs between 5.10 and 5.32).
It’s a good trade. Morrow wasn’t going to be a starter in Seattle in 2010, unless the M’s weren’t planning on bringing in another starter like we all assumed.
Zduriencik traded for Snell, so he obviously liked Snell as a starter. Two months and spring training were not going to change his mind on that. Nobody has dissented from Rowland-Smith being a starter. With Felix and Lee, that’s 4 spots.
Since we all have a hard on for Ben Sheets, or another similar type free agent (Duchsherer? Randy? Pedro?), that’s 5. Next point: It’d be criminal to send Morrow back to the bullpen, we had to trade him. Final Point: If there was a better deal, Zduriencik would’ve taken it. He didn’t, so there wasn’t. Bottom Line: Great trade, A+
Speaking of Randy, here’s an article Dave wrote just over a year ago on Fangraphs.
I know he’s regressed some more, and not as enticing to me as an Erik Bedard, but for nostalgia’s sake, would anyone else mind seeing Junior and Randy together if 2010 pans out the way we’ve all been dreaming the past 3 weeks (not to mention going bananas again every time he takes the mound in Safeco…aka Heaven for Pitchers)?
Also, from a commenter on Dave’s article:
I think since Jack Z didn’t make that draft decision he sees Morrow as a what he is – a fifth pick in the draft with heat, hardly a secondary pitch, and erratic control. I also think the new staff is glad not to have to deal with the uncertainty that Morrow presents, making this a bit of addition by subtraction.
I kind of agree with JJD. Jack didn’t draft Morrow so has no vested interest in him. Morrow’s probably not the type of player Jack covets. That is why he keeps getting shifted back and forth from starter to reliever. This FO doesn’t really know what they have with him. If that’s the case lets just move on.
Jack is slowly cleaning house of Bavasi people and looking forward rather then back (watch out Josh fields). I think its a good trade.
Another fantastic Big Unit article by D.C., this one dealing with Mr. Snappy and its blatant refusal to die.
If I had my druthers, I’d try to get both Randy and Bedard for a hometown/injury-risk discount and sell them on this being THE year. I know, sappy, but let’s see how many feel good stories we can cram into one season.
God knows we’ve earned it.
Interesting how, in 48 hours, the expression “In Jack We Trust” has transformed.
It was, “In Jack We Trust!!!!!”
It is now, “In Jack We Trust?????”
Morrow was a tweener; in between roles. This team only has room for one tweener, and that guy is one of the best players to ever lace up a pair of cleats.
We now have the best damn relief core in the business. If we get a lead to the 7th inning then the other team might as well start the bus.
Let’s get a 1B and get going. Pitchers and catchers report around Feb 18th. That is 7 weeks away. We have a pennant to win.
So let me get this straight we add another bull pen guy so that leaves us with Ricky Orta, Varvaro, Josh Fields, Hill, and to be honest Gaby Hernandez is probably a better long man than a starter. Then you have swingman types like Olsen Vargas, Fister and Petit. Man half of the 40 man roster is potentialy bullpen guys.
I also forgot Paredes who I believe is on the 40 man roster and the new rule 5 guy from the Yankees.
Here are the “starting pitcher†FIP for Mariners 2009.
Felix 3.09
Lee 3.11
Bedard 3.55
RRS 4.20
Snell 4.88
Jakubauskas 4.94
Morrow 4.95
Fister 5.11
French 5.24
Yusmiero Petit 5.28
Vargas 5.44
Olson 7.46
My hunch is that Jack Z valued Morrow as a 5th Starter as more-or-less equivalent to Jakubauskas (released on waivers), Fister, French, and Petit (claimed off waivers).
Therefore, he traded Morrow for the best he could get… in this case, a strong reliever that gives us a much better bullpen. League has a FIP of 3.58 (2009) and 4.16 (2008).
Morrow is not very reliable as a Late-inning reliever, due to his high walk rate… but League is.
At least we now have a very nice bullpen for 2010.
Come on everybody, get over it. The M’s have moved on, lets move on. All of the analyzing and over analyzing isn’t going to change the trade. Lets see how it plays out over the next couple of years.
Does everybody remember what happened when Griffey was traded to the Reds. How it was a bad trade and everyone thought the franchise would go into the tank. well we got Mike Cameron with that trade and he helped the M’s get 116 wins. It wasn’t as bad as people thought it would be.
Rebuilder,
I agree with you that All of the pitchers that you mentioned could be “bullpen guys”. However, their role would be more of the long reliever or mop up role.
They would not be great candidates for high-leverage bullpen use in a close game. League gives us another option in these games.
I also think that with the better team that Jack Z has assembled, that there will be more opportunities for high-leverage situations, which will require more high-leverage innings to be pitched.
With Felix, Lee, and RRS, there could be many savable games.
I have been a gung-ho M’s fan since I was 13 years old during their expansion year…lots of downs, a few ups. I am absolutely stoked at what Jack Z has done and continues to do. When the 2008 season ended, I thought it would take a few years for me to be this excited about the M’s having success. Go Jack Go.
I just can’t believe that this is the topic that leads to 300+ replies. God speed Mr. Morrow. I hope you have great success as a starter in the AL East. The Mariners just couldn’t take the risk that this year would not be the year it happened.
I looked up various “all Starting pitcher” FIP values on Fangraphs, and listed several potentially available Starters below. The median value seemed to be about 4.75
(I do not know if FIP 4.75 is league average or not. Perhaps someone could clarify for me.)
John Smoltz 3.87
Jason marquis 4.10
Kelvim escobar 4.10
Aaron harang 4.14
Pedro martinez 4.28
Edwin Jackson 4.28
Rich Harden 4.35
John Garland 4.48
Washburn 4.58
Randy Johnson 4.95
1. Is Smoltz FIP for real? I thought he did not perform very well in 2009, but not according to Fangraphs. Perhaps the M’s should go for him.
2. I love the idea of Randy Johnson, but his FIP was THE SAME as Morrow’s.
[Zduriencik]
I overheard this conversation last week between Jack Zduriencik and Blue Jays GM, Alex Anthopoulos.
AA – “You’re getting Cliff Lee for what?!? I’m going to tell Amaro that he’s getting robbed. That trade is ridiculous.”
JZ – “Whoa, let’s not be hasty. Tell you what, I’ll give you Morrow for League if you keep your mouth shut.”
AA – “Well, what Amaro doesn’t know can’t hurt him, I guess. Brandon Morrow, nice”
Ya. I was thinking this trade was just like the Griffey trade too.
[link]
As was previously pointed out, about in the middle of the page:
Sports on a Schtick:
It’s what we do. You can no more stop people from analyzing trades than you can stop the tides.
I think Zduriencik is a great GM who made a bad trade. That’s not a problem, and it’s not the end of the world that many of us are saying so.
When Mike Sweeney kept making the line-up last year, many of us thought Wak was a good manager who was making a bad decision.
I wonder how much Rick Adair was involved in this trade. Apparently League is an old apprentice of his from AA ball.
Let’s. Move. On.
Over. Used. Emphatic. Style.
But. Agreed.
Tide. Can’t. Stop.
I HATE this trade, because it shows me that there is no patience again (like the Lou P days). I do recall R.Johnson having lots of control problems when he started with the M’s, and now I think JackZ would have traded him off too. Congratulations to the Blue Jays as I think you just traded for a future ACE. Brandon M will not only be a good pitcher but has the potential to be a great one, give him time. Thanks alot JackZ, you just struck out with the bases loaded. Now I’m not so sure about next season. Good luck Brandon, I personally will miss you.