Francisco Liriano
Heard a rumbling that the M’s are kicking the tires on Francisco Liriano, who the Twins are willing to move for the right offer. The M’s are definitely in the market for a starting pitcher, and given the horde of low-upside, back-end starters already in the organization, a high risk/high reward type makes sense. Rather than spending money on a free agent, however, it sounds like the M’s would rather focus on a younger arm such as Liriano, who they would control through 2012, giving them long term upside if he has a good season.
Liriano, you’ll probably remember, was one of the game’s best pitchers a few years ago. In 2006, he was basically a left-handed Felix Hernandez. He then blew out his arm, missed all of 2007 and half of 2008 before returning to the big league mound. He returned minus a few MPH on his fastball and without much in the way of command, and he hasn’t’ been able to get back to what he used to be. By traditional metrics, his 2009 was a disaster, as he went 5-13 with a 5.80 ERA.
However, he pitched much better than that. His FIP was 4.87, and his xFIP (which adjusts for HR/FB rate) was 4.55, which puts him in the same vicinity as guys like Jered Weaver and Kevin Millwood. Not the ace he used to be, but a useful pitcher who misses enough bats to overcome the walk and home run problems.
Beyond just the possibility that he regains some velocity and gets back to something closer to 2006 form (unlikely, but you never know), Liriano is the kind of pitcher who would most benefit from Safeco Field. He ran a huge platoon split last year, as he destroyed lefties but had massive problems with right-handed hitters. 20 of the 21 home runs he allowed were to RHBs. A flyball pitcher who gives up home runs predominantly to RH hitters can thrive in Safeco, as the park neutralizes their biggest weakness.
So, even if Liriano pitches like he did in 2009, you’d expect him to run a 4.xx ERA for the Mariners. In a lot of ways, he’s like Brandon Morrow, but suited better to the team’s park.
Liriano makes a lot of sense for the Mariners. The Twins have depth in the rotation and are still interested in Jarrod Washburn (who would likely give them a pretty decent close-to-home discount), so if they can get value for Liriano, it makes sense for them as well.
What would the M’s have to give up? I’d imagine Jose Lopez’s name would at least come up. The Twins are looking for either a second baseman or a third baseman (and maybe both), have a line-up of good LH hitters and mediocre RH bats, and care little for on base percentage. He’s not the defender that the Twins like, but he fits their offensive style, and more importantly, he fits their payroll. It’s no secret that the M’s prefer to trade Lopez, and Minnesota is probably the most likely team of any in baseball to be interested.
A Lopez-Liriano swap would allow the M’s to pursue a guy like Orlando Hudson or Felipe Lopez to play second base, giving them another switch-hitter to hold down the position until Dustin Ackley is ready. And Liriano provides more upside at a lower cost than any free agent pitcher the M’s could sign.
Like the Luke Scott rumor that I heard a month or so ago, this one makes sense. Doesn’t mean it’s going to happen, of course, but it has the chance of being the type of move that works for both Seattle and Minnesota. We’ll see if the M’s and Twins can put this one together.
If they could pull this off, would we also be interested in bringing Beltre back to play 3B and shifting Figgins to 2B? Which makes more sense from a numbers perspective: Hudson or Beltre?
I believe Hudson would be more cost-effective.
Dave, would a trade like this be a Liriano/Lopez straight across? Or would one team or the other need to add an extra piece?
With FA’s out there like Orlando Hudson & Felipe Lopez it makes sense for the M’s.
Young SP’s with lots of upside are tough to come by so SEA should go for it!
This seems like a very wise avenue to explore. I think Liriano has some untapped talent, but he will have to change his mindset a bit. I don’t think he will be blowing batters away quite as much. The aforementioned Safeco effect would make him more than worthy of a shot, but I wonder if he will adjust his pitching style to get the most out of his talent?
Lopez is an average player, at ~2 WAR. A starting pitcher at ~4.5 FIP is about a 2 WAR player.
But Lopez is a known entity, and a good bet to play 150+ games. Liriano’s a risk. I’d say that the M’s would have to get another piece (A-ball arm with upside?) to make the deal balance. The M’s are trading certainty for risk, and should get something back in return.
Wow. It would be great if this were to come true. With Jack Z., anything is possible. Let’s all keep our fingers crossed. Think Jack Z. reads this blog?
Wow. It would be great if this were to come true. With Jack Z., anything is possible. Let’s all keep our fingers crossed. Think Jack Z. reads this blog?
The M’s are trading certainty for risk, and should get something back in return.
Well, for one, they would get an extra year of Liriano. They only have Lopez for two years, while Liriano is in his first arbitration eligible year.
There’s also the current glut of available second baseman and lack of a market for them. You can’t expect to get “full value” for Lopez when the Marlins are desperately trying to trade Dan Uggla, the Mets are trying to give away Luis Castillo, and Orlando Hudson/Felipe Lopez are free agents and very few teams are looking for a second baseman.
While the Twins “may not care” about OBP, it’s worth noting that they were fourth in the AL in OBP, trailing only NYY, BOS, and LAAAAAAAA in 2009.
Having Joe Mauer on your team will do that for you.
Okay. Fair ’nuff. I can see where the arb years balance &c.
I understand the logic behind this deal, but it makes me uneasy. As you’ve pointed out, Dave, this is a team with a lot of injury risks on it. One thing you can count on from Lopez is that you can write his name in the lineup every day. He hasn’t been affected by niggling injuries and the like. That’s not something you can expect from a free agent second baseman.
There’s a lot of upside here, especially if Liriano bounces back to form. But the downside is accepting even more injury risk, and the M’s have a lot of that already.
Is Liriano higher upside, or higher risk, than say Sheets or Bedard?
On one hand, it seems a silly time to trade Lopez, when it’s difficult to get “fair value” in return. On the other hand, it’s kind of like selling a house in a buyer’s market. It’s not so bad if you plan to buy one, too. If the M’s turn around and sign Orlando Hudson, a guy whose value is in same range as Lopie’s, they’ll have effectively added Liriano for the price of Hudson. Also, it would give Jack Z even more flexibility, because he would have the option of playing Figgins at 2B and signing a 3B instead of a 2B (although that doesn’t make much sense in when it’s a buyer’s market for 2B).
The Twins had five guys reach 500 PAs and all of them had OBPs of .342 or higher: Mauer (.444), Span (.392), Kubel (.369), Morneau (.362), and Cuddyer (342). It isn’t just Mauer. Even Nick Punto (.337) is a good OBP guy, given his Mendozza-esque batting average. The problem for the Twins, though, is just one of those five guys is right handed, so a right hander with a decent OBP against lefties might be palatable, especially if he has some pop.
I would say that Liriano is no more of a health concern than either Bedard or Sheets. Liriano pitched 212 innings over the last two years. Sheets pitched 198 in 2008 and didn’t pitch at all in 2009. Bedard piched 164 during his two year stint with the M’s, and might not be ready to pitch in spring training.
It is obvious that the M’s might be content to have Lopez on the team in 2009 if nothing can be worked out via a trade, but he is clearly not a player that the organization believes is a long term solution at 2B.
If the M’s do move Lopez and sign a FA 2B, would they still have money for a 1B, or would the signing of a Hudson or (Felipe) Lopez mean that that the M’s would be finished with major acquisition, via either trade or free agency.
In other words, would Liriano + Hudson/Felipe Lopez + Carp > Jose Lopez + LaRoche/Overbay/Branyon + FA starting pitcher.
Most of the pitchers available that fit into the team budget are risk/reward guys. And looking at F Lopez, you’ll get ~150 games out of him and he’s a switch hitter. With Hudson, who also is a switch, it’s a bit more of a crapshoot, but not much at ~130-140 games.
Looking at it this way I don’t see all that much difference, except for the monetary savings on a pitcher. And it probably improves your team OBP significantly to boot.
That is a very interesting question, because the player’s couldn’t be more different. Lopez offers an extremely predictable package. He’s consistent, his skills are well known, he has been durable, and his salary is set for the next 2 years.
Liriano is basically the opposite. Not at all predictable (has been great, has been bad, some chance at being great again). He is not consistent, his skills have fluctuated, he has not been durable, and his future salary demands will be almost completely dependent on future performance.
If the Twins don’t believe Liriano will gain any more arm strength or command, then they won’t value him very highly and would probably prefer Lopez straigh-up. If the Twins believe he has a solid chance of improving (even if they don’t think he’ll make it 100% back), then they probably value him a little more than Lopez. Of course, even if they think he has a solid chance to improve from 2009, his durability concerns could still reduce his value.
So I don’t have an answer. I think it could work straight-up, but I could also see the Twins asking for a little more than just Lopez. I do not believe the Mariners would be justified in asking for Liriano + in exchange for just Lopez.
Liriano is an interesting target. Sheets is a helluva lot easier to spell though.
Liriano logged close to 200 innings in 2008 and had an additional mph on his fastball in 2009 but he also suffered through elbow issues in August and September finally only logging 136 innings.
He’s a big risk even as a fifth starter. Maybe he’ll ultimately end up in the pen (like a reverse Soriano)?
Sure they should have enough to sign a Branyan or like player, maybe even more. Remember you just saved a chunk of money trading for Liriano, who made $430 last year. I think he’s arb this year, but if he gets more, it won’t be much.
This is pretty long, but worth reading if you want to examine Liriano’s in-depth post-injury performance.
Quick summary: Liriano has an average-or-better change and a very good slider. His fastball, despite good velocity for a lefty, gets pounded. He saw no improvement in his results from 2008 to 2009, despite throwing all his pitches harder with the same movement, and throwing more 1st pitch strikes.
Interesting thing about Liriano. Some of his 2008 and 2009 controllable skills were almost identical, despite a pretty big variation in ERA and FIP.
K/9: 7.93, 8.03
BB/9: 3.79, 4.28
GB/FB: 1.03, 0.98
Zone%: 47.1, 45.0
But if you look a little deeper, there are some results that make it pretty surprising to me that he didn’t show improvement from 2008–>2009.
F-Strike%: 48.9, 55.3
FASTBALL (2008, 2009)
Velocity: 90.9, 91.7
Horizontal Mov: 8.2, 8.6
Vertical Mov: 8.4, 8.3
SLIDER
Velocity: 83.7, 86.2
Horizontal Mov: -.3, -.2
Vertical Mov: 3.7, 4.0
Changeup
Velocity: 82.0, 84.7
Horizontal Mov: 8.5, 8.8
Vertical Mov: 5.4, 5.6
So he basically showed no change in his controllable skills from 2008 to 2009 despite throwing all his pitches harder (with the same movement) and despite throwing more 1st pitch strikes. Usually you’d expect a guy to have more success if he is throwing harder and getting ahead in the count more.
And why does he throw a 1st pitch strike 55.3% of the time, but only throws strikes 45.0% of the time? There is a smaller across-the-board discrepency (pitchers tend to throw more 1st pitch strikes than overall strikes), but Liriano has a larger split. Even more curious is the fact that he saw a big jump in his F-Strike% from 2008–>2009, but a slight decline in his overall Zone%. Over-reliance on 1st pitch fastballs (which are getting pounded)? Gets ahead and then tries to nibble? I have no idea, but it is kind of strange.
Also, while his slider isn’t looking as good as it used to, both his slider and change-up are still good pitches. For the rankings, I’m leaving out guys who throw very, very few of the pitches, since pitch f/x is probably just putting a few pitches in the wrong category. Also, the rankings are for pitchers with 120+ IP (except for Liriano in 2008).
2008 wSL/C = 2.18, 17th best
2008 wCH/C = 0.03, average
2009 wSL/C = 1.38, 23rd best slider
2009 wCH/C = 0.99, 27th best change-up
So Liriano presently possesses and average-to-good change and a very good slider. But his FB gets pounded (wFB/C = -0.54 (2008), -1.99 (2009)).
The M’s would have to get a little more than straight up. It’s hard to see either Felipe Lopez or Hudson as a significant upgrade in WAR terms..and our Lopez clearly has more potential upside in terms of career growth. If Ackley can play second in a couple years, that helps soften the blow, but nobody knows yet whether he’ll be able to play there.
Liriano has not declined as much as most people think, but post surgery also may not have the upside everyone hopes.
I agree that moving a second basemen this winter is very difficult. But I’m just not convinced straight-up is enough.
If it was a one for one swap, I believe the M’s would need to send cash to entire the Twins.
Oops, I blockquoted my comment rather than Toddk’s.
I’m sure this is not part of the M’s consideration here, but y’know, Francisco Liriano is Exhibit A in the case for Felix to agree to a long-term deal buying out his arb years and forgoing FA. Having Felix see him every day…
Figure Liriano and Lopez’s salaries will be about an even swap at roughly $2.5 mil. That means the money earmarked for the #3 SP would be applied to the new 2B. Hudson and F.Lopez are going to come failry cheaply, so the team probably saves money on the deal that they can apply toward…?
The real question is, if the team signs Hudson, is it time to have that talk with Ichiro about maybe thinking about hitting third?
Oops, I blockquoted my comment rather than Toddk’s.
The real question is, if the team signs Hudson, is it time to have that talk with Ichiro about maybe thinking about hitting third?
What in the world does Hudson have to do with where Ichiro hits in the lineup? He’s not such a great hitter that it would be worth bumping either Ichiro or Figgins down.
Fixed Tek’s, but Toddk gets credit for the witty reply (I assume that was intentional).
Hudson could bat 9th giving the Marines a Hudson, Ichiro, Figgins inning some times.
Liriano is going to get $2.5M this year after going 5-13 last season and still not back to form after his injury? I’m not sure I can see that happening.
Yup.
No, if Hudson comes aboard I think you have a talk with Hudson about hitting ninth. Yes, Ichiro is guaranteed to lead off an inning only once a game; otherwise, he is likely to hit behind someone else the rest of the game. But Ichiro is comfortable as a leadoff hitter, and I think that’s where you leave him. Imagine, though, the possibilities of Hudson already on base, Ichiro moving him along, and Figgins batting behind him. Potential track meet!
One of the big differences between 2008 and 2009 for Liriano was HR/FB. 6.2% in 2008, 10.2% in 2009.
I’m guessing 2009 was the anomaly, and that he’d project to improve for that reason alone.
Hudson could bat 9th giving the Marines a Hudson, Ichiro, Figgins inning some times.
Giving the Mariners as well as the Marines a Hudson, Ichiro Figgins innings soemtimes.
In case anyone checks, the HR/FB numbers I used were from Baseball-reference.
I just looked at Fangraphs, and they have 7.7% in 2008 and 12.5% in 2009.
So the numbers are different for some reason I don’t want to figure out, but the conclusion is the same.
Actually, HR/FB isn’t really considered a controllable skill. 2009 is about league average, 2008 was well below. So 2009 was the regression year and you should expect similar results going forward. 2008 was the anomaly in HR/FB.
But the change in HR certainly accounts for most of the ERA and FIP variation, as his xFIP was virtually identical.
I didn’t mean to imply that it was. I was attempting to explain the difference in FIP that was pointed out by the previous poster.
Take Lopez, a proven player in safeco, and trade him for a pitcher that hasn’t consistently proven himself and could now be considered injury prone? I like anyone can see the potential in Liriano but would rather not trade (since Branyan isn’t back)our best HR and run producer for “potential.”
If the plan is trade Lopez for Liriano then sign Orlando hudson and or sign/trade for a big hitting first baseman? Then I am 100% for this trade.
I liked your first comment better. While Bobby V is gone, I’m sure the Chiba Lotte Marines would love to have Ichiro, Hudson and Figgins.
On a more serious note, @mrmybig 9:04 AM, perhaps part of the reason why he could be throwing harder and having less success is that the difference between the speed of his pitches has lessened. According to your data…
2008
Fastball – 90.9
Slider – 83.7 (-6.2)
Change – 82 (-8.9)
2009
Fastball – 91.7
Slider – 86.2 (-5.5)
Change – 84.7 (-7)
Don’t know how significant that is, but perhaps it’s a factor?
And in my haste, it should be @mymrbig, and it should be (-7.2) on the 2008 slider…
That would almost have to be the plan if this trade goes through.
Liriano does have some upside value in Safeco too though. He’s a lefty FB kind of pitcher who should thrive in this park much like Jarrod Washburn. And he would save the team money at SP which then frees up money for 1b and 2b.
Lopez straight for Liriano is too too much. Lopez is our only consistent offense and to trade him for an ERA of 5.83 is crazy.
Yeah, I was wondering about that too. Good point. But his change was actually better in 2009 and his slider was still very good, despite both being closer to his fastball velocity than in 2008. Unless the reduced gap has just made his fastball less effective (though traditionally you would think it would make the secondary stuff less effective).
Yes, I would enjoy a Liriano for Lopez swap quite a bit. I’d prefer Francisco at this price rather than Ben Sheets for his $$ or Bedard with his risk factors.
Are you sure Ichiro is ready to cross the Pacific?
Evaluating Pitcher Talent
Everything adds up. We have been rumored lately to be interested in Hudson, and now this. Makes some sense…
I like this trade conceptually. But I’ve always been a big Orlando Hudson fan so I’d love to see him as part of this. I also like the idea of attacking the remaining (relative) holes in our defense. Get Overbay at 1st next, then find a glove wizard to catch and we’re done. (When Langerhans is in LF and Bradley’s at DH, we’ll have few defensive holes from the DH position as well.)
Lopez is our only consistent offense
That’s ludicrous – what do you call Ichiro? Also, looks like you slept through the first two months of Lopez’s 2009.
Well, excluding Branyan, Lopez was the third best run producer on the team last year, if you go by wOBA or wRC. Ichiro and Gutierrez were better at the plate. Frankly, Lopez was pretty much average at the plate. Plus, as Dave has said (maybe on fangraphs, maybe here), last year is last year. This year, with Ichiro and Guti returning, and Figgings and Bradley added, Lopez figures to move a couple spots down the list, since both of those guys are better hitters.
If Branyan, or another average hitting 1B is brought on board, Lopez moves down another notch (sixth now), and even if Carp is the 2010 1B, there’s a good chance Carp will be at least as good a hitter as Lopez. Adam Moore might challenge him too, though that’s more speculative.
Lopez certainly isn’t bad. He’s slightly above average in WAR, and the team should not give him away, but if they have a good deal on the table, they shouldn’t worry about taking his bat out of the lineup.
I think that if we were to trade Jose Lopez away and sign Orlando Hudson, then you would find yourself not missing the .303 OBP and the extra 16 homers that he would hit. I think this would be a very smart move for the Mariners. It seems as if Jose Lopez adding on that extra weight during the off season really didn’t do all that much for him, except slow him down and make him worse on defense. I remember when he said that it wouldn’t slow him down HAHA….
ERA? If I knew how to type a Bevis and Butthead laugh, I would.
His xFIP was 4.31 in 2008 and 4.55 in 2009. This is a much better indicator/predictor of his future ERA than either past ERA or FIP. So with zero improvement, you can probably expect an ERA in the 4.40 range, based on his 2008 and 2009 skills. Not great, but pretty averagish for a guy with upside.
If we were to sign Hudson, would he be in the three spot? Ichiro, Figgins, Hudson?
I just wish we would have done this trade a few days ago when Kelly Johnson was still on the market.
This is kind of like those Cleveland teams of the mid 90′s who went Lofton, Vizquel, Robbie Alomar as 1-2-3, then had the power come after.
Not sure if it’s been mentioned, and not sure it’s even worthy of a mention. But the guy (through his career thus far) has a 0-1 Record with a 2.50 ERA at Safeco Field, in only 3 starts. His 3rd lowest of any park he’s played at. Granted this stat hardly even matters considering he’s only played there 3 times. But obviously he can be affective in it, it’s just a matter of if he can stay consistent. I do and I don’t like this purposed trade possibility. I realize it’s a big risk to sign this type of player for we have no idea what the outcome of it could be. However, we do know Lopez is a very consistent offensive player, we’ve got a lot to lose out of this deal. And potentially a lot to gain. Personally, I’d be okay with this deal, I trust our coaching staff to point this guy in the right direction, much like they did with Washburn. Anyway, I’m neutral to this trade.
There are still guys out there to fill a 2B hole. Hudson, Felipe Lopez, Orlando Cabrera is really only being looked at as a 2B by plenty of teams.
Depending on what else is out there, I could see Seattle being a pretty desirable landing place for those 3 guys given where it is in the offseason, playing time to be offered, and moves the team has already made to better themselves.
I give this idea two thumbs up.
All analysis aside, I don’t think I could stomach still another ex-Twins pitcher turning into a turd for us. Liriano had one good half in 2006. Maybe his stuff is just hittable once major leaguers get a few looks at it.
I see that the ‘retired’ Everyday Eddie signed with the Nats the other day.
For fun, I looked for some pitchers who put up similar K/9 and BB/9 as Liriano the past couple years (around 8 K/9 and 4 BB/9).
David Price
Barry Zito
Carlos Zambrano
Scott Kazmir
AL Burnett
Chad Billingsley
Manny Parra
Matt Cain
Jonathan Sanchez
There are some obvious differences as to why some of these guys have more (or less) success than Liriano (more GB, luck, etc.). But an interesting list.
Quite possibly the Twins weren’t even listening about Lopez until he was off the market. Any FA we can sign, they can too. As the FA market tightens, it becomes easier to trade Lopez because there are fewer replacements. That also makes it harder to replace him.
You should read Dave’s blog post up at the top of this page.
Pay special attention to the second paragraph.
Why would the twins trade a pitcher with such upside as Liriano for just our 2nd baseman when there are people almost as good as Lopez on the free agency? It seems like a high price for them.
The free agency isn’t exclusive to the Mariners. We have to be giving up something else.
I don’t know if I like this suggestion one bit, three years ago….HELL YES! But, not today! Liriano is sketch, his FIP is pretty decent, but he is really lucky it seems to even be playing professional baseball right now!
Lets say it does did happen though….would Jack Z then make a strong push to get Beltre back and move Figgins to 2B? What would be better, Hudson at 2B or Beltre at 3B?
Also, I’d just like to say that I suggested F. Lopez as a 2B option back when you did your rosterbation and I got ripped by like 10 USS Mariner posters! Now everbody seems to be in agreement that he would work…….Laughable!
bseblfevr;
Stop focusing on ERA. Very poor way to judge a pitcher with the other advanced metrics available.
One more question. You mentioned Liriano only gave up 1 HR to a LHB last year. Was that Junior Griffey on opening day last year?
I don’t know about this. If a team likes Lopez, he is a cheaper option. Yes, you must give up something to get him, but he isn’t a strain on your payroll.
But point taken, there are a few second baseman that are not much more expensive then Lopez in the free agent market. But I think you have to think about money/budgets and the other periphals that go along with making a deal.
There’s a pretty big difference here. This ex-Twins pitcher would be quite cheap compared to the $48 million boat anchor you’re thinking of.
John W, I think the reason would be money. Although since they’ll be moving into a new stadium soon, perhaps the couple million an Orlando Hudson would make over Lopez won’t matter.
I tend to agree that all the upside on this deal goes with Liriano. And since Liriano is under team control for one more year…the Twins might ask for more than just Lopez. I guess it comes down to how much the increased risk of injury with Liriano balances out the equation in the mind of the two GMs.
Are they so desperate to save 1 or 2 mil that giving away a possible workhorse of the future for an incremental increase at 2nd base is a viable option? It doesn’t make sense. They could hold on to Liriano for one more year and if he shows improvement he becomes a big trading piece. Would you do this deal if you were Minnesota?
Let’s give it a smell test: The Amazing Dr. Z isn’t willing to go into 2010 with Morrow in the rotation but he’ll trade a decent player for Liriano?
I think the analysis underestimates just how serious Liriano’s injury history and risk is. He’s never fully come back from his surgery, and missed time last year with forearm swelling and an August DL stint for arm fatigue. There’s upside and I don’t mind taking a chance on him (though the Twins giving up on him raises some red flags), but I think Lopez might be a little too much.
I have to agree with some folks here in that I don’t really see the incentive for Minnesota in this.
Infielders of Lopez’ caliber abound in free-agency, Liriano still has upside, and the Twins aren’t so cash-strapped as to have to improve through trades
That said, Lord knows it’s not like the Phillies needed to move Cliff Lee for what they got in return, and/or the Mariners could always sweeten the pot with a B-grade prospect.
Why indeed, yes it was.
Seeing the subtle rework of this team has been awesome. I have always been a big fan of HRs but in SAFECO I will take OBP and speed which seems to be happening. Also, switch hitters make your bench seem bigger since the pinch hitter isnt needed so often. Work your magic Jack Z and make the New Year even more special!!!
Oh yeah and as far as Liriano’s success I have one word – Adair!! He made Washburn look special and I believe Liriano has much more potential.
Maybe Minnesota values different stats than we do. Not every team uses the same evalutation techniques after all. If the Minn. FO thinks LOB, BABIP and HR/FB are skills (some people still do), then Liriano looks like he’s going backwards.
Although I like Hudson and F. Lopez, they scare me a bit. Lopez has spent his entire career in the NL, Hudson his most productive years there. NL hitters moving to the AL tend not to fair very well offensively. Both players strike out a fair bit more than Jose but walk at so much higher rate that they will still get on base even when struggling at the plate however.
That said, without looking at the numbers I imagine that both will offer significant upgrades defensively. F. Lopez was a full time SS earlier in his career as well so that may give the M’s a bit more flexibility to rest Jack Wilson or replace him if injured.
Attributing Washburn’s 2009 to Adair may be a bit of a stretch. Washburn appeared to be a genuinely better pitcher last year but a big part of his success was the guys running around in the outfield.
Lopez is “cheap” for one more year ($2.3M) and then gets significantly more expensive ($4.5M) but that bump is a team option with a cheap buyout… which the Twins might take, unless he really rakes at the plate in Target Field. So they’re really only looking at a one year rental with potential for a second year. Which doesn’t seem that appealing for them.
Meanwhile, I’d be happy to get one of the ten worst players in baseball by OBP
off the team — provided they can get a decent deal on a replacement 2B.
And that would still leave 1B as the hole in the lineup and the big opportunity to add that “big bat” so lusted-after in some quarters. I wouldn’t be surprised if Z and co are willing to wait on the market there… and besides, it will be fun if that remains an open question when the Benaroya event rolls around, so that we can hear twenty different variations of “I can’t comment on specific players” while learning a lot about their general thinking and approach to filling that position (and towards offense in general).
Dave,
It might be a worth whiled post to asses the risk/reward/cost of the remaining free agent starting pitchers. I would be interested in knowing were Liriano fit in on that list.
Liriano for Lopez sounds like the kind of fair good trade that Jack Z talks about.
Basically…
J.Lopez 2 WAR $2.3M
FA Pitcher
or
FA 2B
F.Liriano 1 WAR ~$1.5M
I’m having trouble deciding if having two players that fit Safeco in Liriano and Hudson/F.Lopez with lower upside is better than the reward of someone like Sheets. If Liriano can get the Vargas boost at Safeco then I like the Liriano side better.
Since he’s already done 1B and LF, I’m just expecting one Monday morning on SP. Can’t wait for it, Dave!
I have to agree with some folks here in that I don’t really see the incentive for Minnesota in this.
I say the incentive is its risk apetite and patience. I think the mariners to complete this trade get Liriano and cash or a prospect for lopez. Why you ask is because lopez had career highs in HRs and RBIs and no INJURIES. He is 2.6 win player now and potentially more while Liriano is 1.1 win and potential to be 4.1, but this is way way more risky. He could get even worse. The chances of lopez being materialy worse are a 10th of Liriano.
Those who think we have more injury risk with liriano must of forgot that we have french, vargas, olsen, and Fister. I think we can afford a ton of injury risk for the upside Liriano provides.
So if this trade goes through we have essentially replaced Morrow w/ Lee and Liriano and Lopez with most likely one of Hudson/F. Lopez. I love it! Does anyone know the cost/value difference in signing F. Lopez over Hudson? Lopez seems like a great value and Z of course is very familiar w/ his merits. This definitely passes the smell test, because Fister/French can fill the gap if/when Liriano falters or gets hurt. I’m excited for 2010 and can’t wait until some of these Scott/Overbay/Liriano trades come to fruition.
The other reason Minnesota might do this is because Lopez has an extremely team friendly contract and they have pitching depth. I actually don’t think this trade is a slam dunk, but replacing Lopez is so inexpensive that I think you do it.
I like the Bill James projection on Liriano, a 3.67 FIP in 125 innings. I’m real comfortable with Lopez’s bat and glove in this lineup, but if Z pulls the deal, I’ll be OK with it.
Orlando Hudson has been more consistent through out his career, while Felipe Lopez has been on and off with “break out” years. This past season happen to be one of them. He is still an above average player, and will be cheaper then Hudson. I would much rather have Hudson though.
Is this true? The Twins aren’t a big market club, and I’m sure they would be looking to save money wherever possible which might allow them to keep some of their best players a little longer.
Or is there some discussion about how the Twins are going to spend their extra cash that I missed?
I saw that, but I wondered if the Bill James projection takes the injury into account or if it is still using the pre injury numbers balanced against the post injury numbers.
“ERA? If I knew how to type a Bevis and Butthead laugh, I would.”
“Heh heh”
“Huh huh”
“Heh heh”
“Huh huh”
“Heh heh”
“Huh huh”
“Heh heh”
“Huh huh”
I still think we could get more for Lopez, or am I just suffering from the aforementioned (prior post) Brandon-Morrow-itis?
Maybe a JJ-type trade isn’t possible, especially with the glut at 2B but just think we could get a little more. ‘shrug’
Just as an FYI — the Twins were one of the few teams that recorded an increase in attendance in 2009: up 5% over 2008 (2,416,237 vs 2,302,431), in the teeth of the economic downturn that led to a 7% drop in attendance in baseball overall. They’re also looking at new revenue with the opening of Target Field next year — and not just the extra millions per year they’re getting for the naming rights, as they have more skyboxes than they had in the metrodome and they presold most of them before the downturn, not to mention other sponsorships. Of course the Twins have been on the receiving end of MLB’s revenue-balancing scheme so you’d expect that income to drop as they begin to enjoy the fruits of Target Field — but not by much because teams are allowed to deduct new stadium costs as part of that calculation (and that loophole is a big reason why there are two new stadiums in New York).
I don’t think you’ll get more than just Liriano for Lopez. The Twins GM, Bill Smith tends to shy away from two-fer deals. It’s also a buyers market for infielders right now, while pitchers – especially lefty pitchers with upside? The Twins just might be the only team in baseball that can afford to trade one.
Lopez+ for Liriano = deal killer.
But the “+” in Lopez+ could just be $. Neither player’s salary is all that much in the grand scheme of baseball, but it might make a difference to the Twins in ’10 if the M’s were picking up Lopie’s salary (or the difference between him and Liriano).
The dislike of Lopez by M’s fans has always surprised me. Sure his defense is mediocre at best, and his OBP certainly leaves a lot to be desired. But he’s still one of the biggest run producers on a team that is inept offensively. Furthermore, he’s also a cheap option. I don’t think he should be looked at as a guy that we just dump for whatever we can get for him. I think he has more value than that, but maybe I’m wrong.
I just don’t see how trading Lopez for Liriano is a good deal for the M’s. At this point in his career, is Liriano even an MLB starter? I thought Jack Z wanted a MOR guy, and I’m not even sure Liriano is a #5 at this point. We just got rid of a possible starter with “upside” in Morrow, now we could be trading one of our better bats for the same thing? Why not just keep Morrow?
I don’t know, maybe I’m in the minority, but I don’t want to see Liriano in an M’s uniform. I still think Duch would have been a perfect #3, and he came pretty cheaply at that.
It seems strange that many people who were against the Morrow trade would be against this trade and using terms like “is he even a major leagin starter”?
@BLYKMYK44,
I was/am one of those who was against the Morrow trade because we got back a set-up man and a prospect who might not amount to anything. So yeah, I was against it, but I also said that if we could turn around and get a good MOR starter after that trade, I wouldn’t have much reason to complain. I just don’t see how Liriano is that guy, though.
And in this trade, we would be giving up a middle of the order hitter for a guy who is a huge question mark. With Lopez we know what we’re getting. A marginal defender, low OBP guy who, nonetheless, is one of our best run producers year after year. Liriano is a guy who COULD turn it around, but there is really no evidence to assume that he will. Just my opinion…
Lopez has been an average 2B over his career. The idea that Hudson is a much better fielder than Lopez doesn’t appear to be true using UZR.
@Seattleguy527
As for being a “run producer”, you’d be better off if you avoided using the term in regard to Lopez. There’s a statistic called wRC+ that nicely shows how a hitter compares to the league in regrads to creating(producing) runs. Lopez was at 100 last year and 102 the year before, which is about as average as you can be.
@Seattleguy527
He’s our “best run producer” if you’re using RBI’s… Because he’s in the middle of the lineup where RBI opportunities are plentiful.
Infielders of Lopez’ caliber abound in free-agency
An average 2B defender with 25 HR power. I don’t think there’s a 2B FA available with 25 HR power for $2.3M.
In fact, I doubt Hudson OR Felipe Lopez goes under $5M/year, and probably more.
The Twins are always a tightwad when it comes to salary figures, and I’d say that Lopez @ $2.3M in 2010 fits their mold over signing Hudson at $5-8M. Plus you get Jose Lopez and his 22-25 HRs too, and maybe a few more since he wouldn’t have Safeco killing his HR power anymore.
Maybe Lopez is a middle of the order guy for the M’s, but he would probably be batting 7th in the Twins order. Lopez also doesn’t walk enough for the 2 spot, so that’s out.
Gardenhire, the Twins manager, is a huge stickler on defense and fundamentals. The whole organization is. Gardy will keep playing a cold bat, but if a player is making mental errors in the field, he’s in the doghouse. That was the big problem with Casilla this year. His bat got cold and he let it affect his defense. He was sent down twice for it and it looks like the team has given up on him.
Another intangible with Gardy is that he was a infielder in the Mets system who prided himself on his glove. Any 2nd baseman playing for the Twins is going to be under a microscope defensively.
Lastly, unlike pitching, there are too many free agent 2nd basemen available and too few teams looking to sign one. I think that is the route the Twins will go for infield help.
The more I think about this trade, the more I think the Twins will decide to pass.
You guys may be right. Maybe I am overestimating Lopez a bit. Maybe ‘run producer’ was a bad choice of words, but I was indeed referring to RBIs. And I don’t doubt that Lopez benefits from hitting in the middle of the order, but the same can be said of all guys who hit in the middle of their order. They hit there because they are the best options on their team to drive in runs.
Still, I don’t like the idea of trading him for Liriano, who looks to be a shell of his old self. As much as I hate the idea of bringing Bedard back, I would much rather take a flyer on him than Liriano. With Bedard, IF he can stay healthy, he will be effective. I can’t stand the guy, but that much is practically a given. However, there’s no way I can assume that Liriano will be effective, even if he is healthy.
Hudson is a better hitter than Lopez,but a worse defender.
They are both two win players but Lopez is younger and cheaper,so Lopez is slightly more valuable than Hudson.
Furthermore,Twins don’t need Jose Lopez because Hudson,Filipe Lopez ,etc. out there.
So I don’t think this trade makes sense for both teams.
Liliano for Triunfel and Lowe or something have more sense.
Does it have to be either/or? I’m sure the Mariners can find room for both Liriano and Bedard if the prices are right.
Im just saying its weird that everyone freaks out about Morrow cause he might become great, but Liriano has a better skill set and has already proven glimpses of greatness and people act as if he is nothing.
Goes back to the point that the emotional investment in the development of Morrow may have led an over inflation of his value around the league.
I see what you’re saying BLYKMYK44. I guess my viewpoint is that Morrow, although a disappointment up until now, hasn’t really been given much of a chance to succeed. The team mishandled him from the moment he was drafted. Sure, he definitely needs to take some blame for not pitching as well as he could have, and for also waffling last year about whether to pitch in the BP or start. But I believe he can still be a very good pitcher in the league if he gets with a team that doesn’t jerk him around and allows him to develop. Just my opinion though; I could certainly be wrong about that.
As for Liriano, you’re right, the guy was a stud a few years back. But unlike Morrow, injuries have kind of derailed his career a bit. Personally, I’m more wary of a guy who has fallen off due to injuries than a young guy who hasn’t reached his potential. And with Liriano, he hasn’t really been dominating since 2006. For me, that’s a huge red flag.
I should also say that, in general, I’m not a fan of making trades for guys who “used to be great,” but have since declined. Those types of trades remind me of the Bavasi days. Overpaying washed up players who had a moderate amount of success in the past(Rich Aurilia, Carlos Silva, anyone?), in the hopes that they would magically turn it around seemed to be his forte.
Ever since the marketing people put Yuni and Jose on that tandem I think many people have had the tendency to see them as the same player. Much to the discredit of Lopez.
I believe a lot of people would be surprised to know that both Hudson and Felipe strike out significantly more often than Jose. Among all qualifying 2Bs, Jose was #8 in isolated power. And even with his dismal on base percentage, he was still squarely in the middle of all 2Bs in terms of OPS.
Couple all that with the fact that he was next to last among all qualifiers at his position in terms of BABIP seems to suggest that he has a lot of potential upside which would be a crime to waste on a still potentially injured Liriano. James only projects Liriano for 125 innings this year? Is that risk enough for a better than average starter at second?
Agreed. And although his OBP is bad, it’s not like he’s a leadoff hitter who’s being asked to get on base as much as possible. He’s being asked to drive in runs. Since he’s one of the few guys on the team who seems capable of doing that, I’m not going to stress too much about the OBP.
Jose’s .274 BABIP may be near the bottom among 2Bs, but it wasn’t that depressed compared to his career average of .288, and the Bill James projections (which generally seem to err to the positive for young players) only peg him at .285 for 2010. Different players settle into different BABIP tiers, and this may just be where Lopez lives.
He certainly has been higher, though, and maybe will be again; and he’s still young with some potential to develop more power so maybe all those left foul-pole “just enough” HRs last year will continue to fall on the far side of the wall rather than regress to the warning track. But that’s a couple of big maybes, and he certainly has been maddingly inconsistent in past seasons. He could put it all together and have a monster year despite his horrible OBP, or we could just see more of the same.
But there’s no doubt he’d be more valuable to a team that plays in a home park that doesn’t punish RH pull hitters like Safeco does. We don’t yet know if the Twins now have such a park, though strictly by the dimensions it would seem they do, especially since the mid-summer-AC’d Metrodome was already much more of a hitters’ park than Safeco. So he might be more valuable to a team like the Twins than he would be to the Mariners no matter how much he develops, or doesn’t.
I’d be ok with the M’s heading into 2010 with Lopez as the starting 2B, especially given the weak market for 2Bs this offseason and with several high-upside AAA players looming as a replacement after 2010 — you certainly don’t want to trade Lopez and then find yourself forced to sign another player in a multi-year deal that blocks Ackley (or forces a tough trade) in 2011. But if Zduriencik can find a deal with a team that would get more value out of Lopez than the M’s will, and he can extract that value in form of the player he gets back, I’m all for it.
You may not like his choice of words, but he has a very valid point. He’s acknowledging one of Lopez’ weaknesses (OBP) while also acknowledging one of his strengths (SLG). His point was that Lopez provides good value for the money, and he’s absolutely right about that.
See, that sounds a bit like Bavasi to me, with “roles” and “kinds” of hitters. OBP doesn’t matter just for leadoff hitters. OBP is simply more valuable than slugging, and that’s true no matter where in the order the player hits. You don’t have many RBIs when guys aren’t getting on base, and Lopez isn’t the kind of Bondsian HR hitter who always drives himself in. Sure, a slugger can clear the bases; but a series of high OBP guys get on base for each other and each subsequent guy has an opportunity to “drive in” the guys ahead of him while also providing an RBI opportunity for the guys behind him (and without ending the inning by creating an out). It doesn’t matter who is driving in the runs as long as there are guys getting on base to get driven in and guys at the plate who don’t get themselves out all the time.
The other thing to consider is that Zduriencik is obviously remolding the Mariners into a higher (if not yet high) OBP team. On such a team low OBP “sluggers” become increasingly less valuable (because the outs they create increasingly negate the value of the other players in the lineup) and high OBP “walkers” become more valuable (because they create more scoring opportunities by getting on base). This may seem a little paradoxical at first (don’t low-OBP sluggers still flourish when there’s guys getting on base? Sure, when they actually connect, but the outs they create when they don’t connect hurt the team more), but there’s a pretty good discussion of it here (see post #7).
Of course Lopez, despite his remarkably low OBP, isn’t the prototypical high strike-out slugger which is why his wOBA remains decent (in fact in K% he slotted right in between Ichiro! and Pujols, which is some pretty heady company if his other stats could keep up). But the team is a-changing, and it’s going to change out from under Lopez. The only question is when he finds himself elsewhere — this coming season or the one after that.
Trading for Francisco Lirano for Lopez would be a huge mistake, he will never be what he could have been before the surgery. For whatever reason its been nearly three years and hes not going to recover 100% from Tommy John.
His fastball is is down 3 mph (94.7 to 91.7)
Contact on his pitches are up 8%
I would suggest hes trying to throw hard and his control and movement are failing.
His K/BB ratio is in a dramatic downfall was over 4 now under 2
Balls are being hit harder (BA in play)
Pitch Fx wasn’t available for 2006 but looking at the raw numbers hes trying to throw 95 again and his control and movement are being lost. No way the M’s should pay high for him as his Tommy John didn’t work as expected and hes a shoulder injury waiting to happen as he looks like hes overthrowing.
While I would have loved him in 2006 now hes a risk not worth taking. His stuff currently is more number three/four starter and I think hes over throwing to reach those levels which will end up in arm problems.
So while moving Lopez to the Twins may make sense, I would expect Minnesota to include a real top prospect in the deal with Lirano.
[use the link button]
One way to think of this trade is to look at each player over the years of club control in terms of their potential contribution to the team vs. the salary that they will command.
On that dimension, Liriano (controlled through 2012) is at worst likely to perform in line with his (minimal) salary, and in the best case his performance could greatly exceed his cost. Looked at from that perspective, the risk is actually not very great, monetarily.
Lopez will make $2.3 million in 2010, has a $4.5 million club option in 2011 with a $250K buyout and will become a free agent in 2012. Given his likely performance, the club probably would not choose to exercise the club option in 2011, in which case we are really only talking about trading Lopez’s 2010 services for Liriano’s cost/benefit stream in 2010, 2011 and 2012.
Looked at that way, the proposition looks somewhat better. While Lopez is likely to be underpaid in 2010 given a 2 WAR performance, the cost/benefit advantage vanishes thereafter. If Liriano exceeds expectations even modestly in 2010, 2011 or 2012, the trade is a net positive for the Mariners. If Liriano doesn’t outperform his salary, the Mariners have really only lost the difference between what it would cost to sign an equivalent free agent and Lopez’s salary for 2010. Assuming that Dr. Z doesn’t overpay for a free agent, this probably only amounts to $1-$2 million at most. The effect is more or less the same as paying Liriano an extra $500-$750K for each of 2010, 2011 and 2012. Not a travesty.
A point about Orlando Hudson. Considering him as a potential Mariner free agent signing assumes that he believes it is in his interest to sign with an American League team. However, there are rumours to the contrary and indeed his performance in the AL earlier in his career does not compare favorably to the NL:
AL (TOR): 270/328/418
NL (ARI/LA): 291/363/440
For details, see:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hudsoor01.shtml
Given the above AL career numbers, Hudson is somewhat comparable to Lopez offensively, albeit considerably better on defense.
Orlando Hudson’s UZR
2006:-1.3
2007:+0.5
2008:-5.1
2009:-3.3
Jose Lopez
2006:+4.7
2007:+2.1
2008:-5.1
2009:+2.9
Hudson is not a good defender anymore.
Lopez is a hacking hack of a hack…but as a #6 or #7 hitter…he ain’t that bad.
He’s better than Hudson…and Felipe is going to revert to a more normal performance….
And Liriano….Big role of the dice.
Pay for a FA arm.
Your trade sounds like something Bavasi would do!
No, YOUR trade sounds like something Bavasi would do!
I don’t think this is a good trade. Jose Lopez is a solid second baseman and a proven player, where Liriano had one great year and the rest of his career has been mediocre at best.
Why not go for Bedard or Sheets? Try to sign one of these guys to a contract that’s fair and loaded with incentives. When Bedard was healthy he looked dominant and Sheets could do the same thing.
There are some more promising free agent arms out there like Joel Pinero or Jason Schmidt.
Heck, why not just go out there and sign Randy Johnson to come in for relief (now I am exaggerating to make a point). It’s too risky to get Liriano.
Joser
IMO, the problem with going all out with OBP guys is that when you face the tougher pitchers, stringing together a few hits to create runs is much harder than getting that one big hit to drive in a couple runs. You absolutely need that guy that can change the game with one swing of the bat. I am not saying that Lopez is that guy, but he could realistically lead the team in HR next year and I can’t see giving him up for a maybe without having other guys in the lineup to pick up the slack.
Do you see the problem with that logic?
I hadn’t looked at this for awhile. OBP for 2001 Mariners:
Edgar .423
Olerud .401
McLemore .384
Ichiro .381
Javier .375
Boone .372
Cameron .353
Bell .303
So Jose Lopez is David Bell with a little more pop. I would trade David Bell for Liriano.
David Bell could absolutely pick it though.
Instead of debating whether OBA or SLG is more important (or using luck-based stats like RBI), why don’t we just use Tom Tango’s wonderful wOBA*?
* don’t let the OBA in the title fool you. It’s scaled to be comparable to on-base average, but it’s calculated differently. It basically sums up the run-producing values of all the things a batter did at the place, so you can compare, say 2009 Ichiro (.352 AVG, 11 HR) with 2009 Branyan (.251 AVG, 31 HR):
Ichiro: wOBA .369
Branyan: wOBA .368
Both were just about equally valuable at the plate last year, but did it in radically different ways.
You missed two:
Guillen: .333
Wilson: .305
@sonichound
And your evidence supporting that statement is …???
See, that’s the type of statement that can actually be tested. We have about one hundred years of data available to us to examine statements such as that. Not only that, people have done exactly that.
And guess what – your statement has virtually no supporting evidence. None. Zippo. Nada. Your premise has less supporting data than the notion that excessive rosterbation will cause your brain to rot.
The most important component of success, with any type of pitcher, is on-base percentage. You can’t score runs if you don’t get on-base. Further, if you want to score multiple runs, you need to get multiple runners on base. Since your chances of wining increase when you score more runs, regardless of the quality of the pitcher, the most important thing you can do against any pitcher is increase your opportunities to score more runs. OBP does that for you.
Its just two trains of thought.
1) You need the big hitter who can change the game with one swing of the bat. One blow can demoralize a team and a pitcher.
2) OBP is what it is. The better it is and the more you have of it, the more likely the team is to hit well and score runs consistently.
I personally agree with the first statement. Although there isn’t a way to measure it exactly, its reprocutions are real. It’s just another one of those unmeasureable factors on the game that some people believe in and some don’t. For example; club house chemistry, confidence, etc.
IMO, the problem with going all out with OBP guys is that when you face the tougher pitchers, stringing together a few hits to create runs is much harder than getting that one big hit to drive in a couple runs. You absolutely need that guy that can change the game with one swing of the bat.
That makes my head hurt.
I’d say the “at worst” with Liriano is more like three terrible starts followed by a lengthy surgery/rehab ordeal.
Others are more positive, though:
A Study in Patience: Francisco Liriano
Even in this worst case (Liriano misses the entire 2010 season), there is still some probability that the Mariners would come out even as long as Liriano could pitch in 2011 and 2012.
If We assume that Lopez is undervalued by $2 million, and that Liriano gets paid $400K in 2010-2012, then all that is necessary for the deal to be a wash is for Liriano to return $3.2 million in WAR in 2010-2012. Even if you’re only willing to pay $1.6 million/win this isn’t that hard.
0 WAR in 2010 (out with injury), 1 WAR in 2011 and 2012 would do it.
So in this case, the number of years of control really does reduce the overall risk. If Liriano were being paid $10 million and was only under control in 2010, the risk would be much higher.
@Wag
The problem you immediately run into is that it’s very clear that OBP is far more important than SLG in scoring runs in all environments. That is measurable and demonstrable.
Now, let’s grant that there is some truth in the first statement. But then we end up with the situation that any positive effects from that are less than the uncertainty in the evaluation – like clubhouse chemistry, the effects are so small that they can’t be filtered out of the background noise.
Given that we know that OBP is more important than SLG in virtually every environment tested and that the “intimidation” effects of SLG are too small to be distinguished, I don’t see why one would ever think that an offense can be strengthened by sacrificing OBP in favor of SLG. Of course, there are people in baseball who certainly do believe this; eschewing the easy link to Bavasi, we see that very logic applied when Dayton traded for Mike Jacobs because the team needed a “slugger”, OBP be damned.
In the end the statement about the importance of a “big slugger” looks as if it reduces to, “I believe it because I believe it.” Which gives it about as much footing as Linus’ belief in the Great Pumpkin.
I’d say it’s almost certain they will pick up his option. Provided he gives you something close to his expected performance, he’s still going to be underpaid relative to free agents. He certainly will still be tradeable at that point, and if they decide to go with someone else at second, picking up that option allows them to get something back in trade for him. The alternative would be paying to make him go away and getting nothing in exchange.
Lopez along with his lack of skill as an innings extender, is an inning killer, he led the league last year among 2B in GIDP at 25 and was 4th in MLB over all.
Just to put that in perspective, Jose Vidro in his last full season in 2007 had 21 GIDP.
there are lots of players with great OBP, not nearly as many great run producers. To say a great OBP person translates to a great run producer is not always true.
The fact that OBP is more important to run scoring than SLG isn’t something that is debatable; go do some research. Your tendency to just keep repeating your ill-informed opinions as if they were incontrovertible fact has just about worn out its welcome.
Define “run producer”.
@wag
You might want to reacquaint yourself with the USSM orientation, in the blue bar at the top of the page, but also linked here for your convenience. Or – to make it even easier – here’s an excerpt:
You’re certainly welcome to make your argument. But if you want to be taken seriously, you need to: a) bring your proof; and b) get familiar with the current state of argument and refute the existing evidence.
Unless you can bring more to your argument, your posts have about the same persuasive impacts as Linus’ exhortations about the Great Pumpkin.
[make some attempt to educate yourself or stop commenting]
Geez, I hate to repeat myself so soon, but, ahem,
instead of debating whether OBP or SLG is more important, why don’t we use something like Tom Tango’s great stat, wOBA, which weighs getting on base and mashing the ball based on how valuable each is to scoring runs. Then you can have one number that tells you how good a run producer a guy is.
I think Wag has something with the emphisis on slugging as an advanced metric for measuring run production.
It may need a little tinkering but it would go something like this:
(SLG% – ISO) + BB% + HBP%
Because it’s based on slugging and then you also get the walks in there it seems like it would correlate very well to run production.
Or you could just use linear weights to give you wOBA
A vast, vast amount of research has gone into figuring out what goes into run production. You should look into what others have already found and see where to go from there, rather than try to start fresh based on what seems like might correlate well.
It was a joke, the formula will always be just a few points off of OBP. I thought starting out subtracting ISO from SLG right off would be dead giveaway.
@JMHawkins
Understood. But since our dear friend Wag was having difficulty wrapping his mind around the importance of OBP, I was trying to keep the discussion at a level I thought he might be able to keep up with.
Expecting Wag to deal with wOBA at this point is like asking someone who just learned about chromosomes to grasp the notion of sex-linked recessives. Our friend appears to be struggling with the notion that you can actually develop a hypothesis and test the hypothesis with data to see whether your intuition is correct. Asking him (or her) to deal with wOBA is expecting a bit much of him at this point.
****
By the way – Wag’s been posting on the site for a couple of months. His (or her) posting shows a remarkably dogged insistence on remaining ignorant and continuing to spout cliches in the face of information that shows those cliches simply show ignorance.
My belief is that Wag shows all of the aptitudes necessary for a successful career in elective office.
As far as I can tell, Wag is an experimental AI that spouts random baseball cliches over and over again in response to any conversational input.
Sortof like Eliza, but far less entertaining.
Remove the z and you’d have a baseball blog-comment cliche generator that can raise Dan Wilson’s batting average 50 points for a month and rip the entire Chicago Cub fan base a new exit ramp.
Or we could remove both the “z” and the “a” and we could sing “Eli’s posting, hide your brain, fan. Eli’s posting, hide your brain, fan. Fan, Eli’s posting. No, you’ll never get away from the burnin’ brain fart! …”
Save money on a first baseman, move Lopez to first and sign Hudson for 2b. Lopez is cheap and young and has the glove for 1b. There seems no urgency to trade 20+ homers and 90+ rbi for a #5 starter(We have plenty of those now). We need Luke Scott for Lf.
Lopez is also pretty bad as a potential 1B.
[off-topic, dumb, stop posting this]
Not really.
You’re using WAR to predict future value, if I understand right. Do you see where that goes wrong?
In my opnion most of the ppl on this site use over complicated means for determining worth of a player and there value to a team. I’m not saying any of you are wrong what-so-ever. I just don’t believe they truly determin a means.
For example;
John Lackey, Mike Cameron, Marco Scutaro, and Jeremy Hermida (13.0 war)
VS
Jason Bay, Billy Wagner, and Takashi Saito (4.3 war)
If you use a method such as WAR purely to determin an outcome it can be rather misleading.
Are the red sox really +9 wins as a result of this offseason. I personally really doubt it. As a result, I try not to use WAR (for example) as a method for determining a teams improvement or players value.
Is that not a fair argument?
You want proof and stats to back up opinions. So I did that.
Not to encourage Wag, but [encouraging Wag]
In essence you are saying “I don’t believe WAR.” But you provide absolutely no data as to why WAR is not reliable, so as far as your basic argument goes, no, you have have not provided any bit of information to support your basic argument.
You are simply choosing to disbelieve the work that has been done by others without providing the least bit of substantive information as to why that information should be discounted. If you want your opinion to be taken the least bit seriously, you need to provide substantive information as to why your opinion trumps the careful reviewed and vetted analyses conducted by others who have spent years studying the information (and many of whom have been hired by MLB clubs to assist in evaluations of clubs.)
******
You might also note that in the above I completely set aside the fact that you are using WAR for uses to which it is not intended. That’s because I think the issues I outlined above are more fundamental. If you can’t get past the concept of what is required to make a coherent, intelligent argument based upon reasoned analysis, then other considerations are moot.
what we’re talking about here isn’t really that sophisticated. It involves the basic ability to prepare hypotheses and collecting information to examine those hypotheses. It’s pretty much the basic stuff that I expect employees working for me to be able to do.
In the real world, most people who come in shooting from the hip with opinions that can’t be substantated don’t get taken very seriously. If that’s an unacceptable burden for you, I suggest that you will probably be happier posting your comments as places such as seattlepi.com and sports.yahoo.com where intelligence is not a requirement for participation.
Two comments on Lopez: (1) Just as we think that Safeco will be able to help Liriano or League improve upon their numbers, it is likely that Lopez is far more valuable outside of Safeco. His home/road splits were ridiculous. On the road last year he was: .313/.348/.535/.883, and he hit 17 homeruns with 56 RBI. Those are pretty good numbers and dwarf what Lopez or Hudson bring to the plate. (2) The M’s do not have a lot of power from the right side. The importance of this is elevated when they go outside Safeco, and that is why Lopez’ numbers are important to this team. I wonder if it is worth consider a platoon of some sort at home, especially against right-handed pitchers…
Your way out of line man. What gives you the right? you have yet to really explain why my example of the Red Sox this offseason when using WAR isn’t very accurate.
John Lackey, Mike Cameron, Marco Scutaro, and Jeremy Hermida (13.0 war)
VS
Jason Bay, Billy Wagner, and Takashi Saito (4.3 war
WAR tells us that the players the Red SOx are adding VS the players they are subtracting will give them 8.7 more wins.
I just can’t believe that.
I check this site about 20 times a day and really enjoy reading everything on here and joining the conversations. I have yet to say anything that has been too far fetched. I just have a hard time justifing using over complicated forms of statistics to determin if a player is good/not or if he fits on a team, its just dosen’t tell the whole story. I played baseball since I was a kid all the way through college and know how important factors outside of statistics are. You would never hire someone simply based on a resume. Word of mouth, attitude, reputation, and experience are all major factors that affect statistics, trades, and players. To ignore them is ignorant. Those factors must ALWAYS be considered. I try to follow everything happening in the sports world and figure that along with my experience gives me the ability to talk without being told im an idiot. Im not saying i’m always right, not even close. But come on, have some respect for people. I am just as much as a fan as you are. Taking my comments off and insulting me is not necessary. If you want me to stop coming to this site then I begruginly will. I was just hoping you would relize that it brings a lot to the debate to hear all the aspects and have a different form of opinion.
Steve, Wag played SPORTS.
Argue not with Lord High Magnificence Wag, Sports Player of Fantastic Justice or you will be declared out of line.
your an idiot. I even stated that dosen’t make anything I say right. But it does help develop theories and opinions that are more educated in certain areas than someone who hasn’t experienced it.
Everytime someone mentions they played sports you guys jump right to that statement.
Incidentally, I someday aspire to deal with people with the class and grace Mr. Nelson always shows. I am, however, nowhere near that point right now. To wit:
1) That’s not for you to decide, it’s for the moderators; 2) He’s not way out of line.
Steve has every right to respond to you as he sees fit without violating any site rules.
You’re confusing your beliefs with a factual argument. Again.
You have never once made a coherent argument based on any sort of logic on the site. That’s pretty spectacular in its own right, and the latter sentence quoted above is totally accurate but for the inclusion of ‘far’.
The classic ‘I don’t understand something, so it’s wrong’ device, fabled crutch of the stupid throughout history.
1) Holy crap, you went to college?;2) Yes, SPORTS!
What in the blue hells are you talking about? If Steve doesn’t hire people based on their resumes, it invalidates the use of advanced baseball stats? I love the casual accusation of ignorance, too.
What a bizarre conceit. What would give you the ability to talk without being told you’re an idiot is something in your brain that prevented you from saying idiotic things. Trying to follow sports means you are to be respected?
Accuracy at long last!
What about you deserves respect? You are the very pinnacle of anti-intellectualism.
Right, but I’m much much brighter than you.
It actually appears to be.
Thank god for that.
Nobody in the site looks to shut down dissent. But your opinions and arguments add nothing. Nothing! Go away.
My life has reached whole new summits of irony.
So not to say that you should stop coming to this site, Wag, but what is it specifically that your contributions are adding to the experience of those of us reading this site? Do you think we read this blog that is highly focused on sabermetric analysis of baseball because we think that they are “over complicated forms of statistics to determin if a player is good/not or if he fits on a team”?
Or is it possible, perhaps, that we read this blog because we don’t have any problem justifying the use of those statistics? I’d say that, for the most part, it’s the latter. Of course, there are other dissenters such as yourself that think it really contributes to every discussion to bring up the same old tired and pathetic arguments that have constantly been shown to be just that–tired and pathetic. But, in general, this blog is followed by people that care about sabermetrics and believe they are a valuable and useful way of determining a player’s worth, and yes, whether or not he belongs on a team.
If you have a problem with that, get over it or get lost. No offense, buddy. I know it sounds harsh, but if you are diametrically opposed to the main source of material in a certain blog, then it seems that your input is going to be seen as stupid, unwelcome, and irritating. Sure, that doesn’t seem fair, but since when was life fair?
You have a problem with Jeff and Graham and Steve and Dave and Derek getting all over your ass when you try to tell them that an area in which they happen to excel is just a bunch of crap. Well what do you expect dude? If you walk into someone’s house and start critiquing what they say and do, they’re probably going to throw you out, and will be completely justified in doing so. So far, they haven’t decided to block you from commenting, but if they do, they have every reason.
So far you haven’t contributed anything worthwhile to this post, and in fact have completely redirected the conversation away from the original point–that a Liriano/Lopez trade is a possibility. Until you can start commenting without rehashing every tired disproven article on this site, expect a lot more responses like the ones you’ve been receiving.
[You're] 100% right. But the couple times [he's] mentioned playing baseball his whole life you all say [that's] virtually useless. Sounds like you guys initially insult him and discredit his [life's] work. While you guys chose to analyze the game, he chose to actually play it.
Which would probably make him a better baseball player and a worse analyst, no? You don’t have to have been a horse to be a jockey.
Hey, uh, “blazerbeliever01″ you realize that we can pretty clearly see that you’re Wag, right?
Banned for sockpuppetry as the final straw.
DMZ, did he really do that??
Apologies to those of you that actually wanted to discuss the merits of Dave’s trade idea in this comment thread.
Yep.
Wow. Just wow.
So is there any more news along these lines? I’m guessing that we probably have to wait for the weekend to end.
What other realistic trades might present themselves? Obviously there’s Overbay. Who might the Jays want for him? And Dave mentioned Willie Aybar. That would be just beautiful, but who would the Rays want in return?
Graham sez:
You don’t have to have been a horse to be a jockey.
That is fabulous. I intend to steal that early and often.
At the same time, I have a minuscule amount of sympathy for the wagster, because baseball, like quantum mechanics, sometimes defies the truths we’ve been taught to believe (Grit is the most important thing a player can bring, the big bat is more important than getting on base, time and space are both invariant, and so on). I don’t know how we’ll make runs happen, but if a bunch of guys in a row continue to get on base a lot, runs will happen as a consequence. It’s not, well, quantum mechanics, but, come on. A hundred years of numbers don’t lie.
Just in the interests of proper attribution, that quote is stolen from former Italian soccer coach Arrigo Sacchi.
wOBA UZR OBP
2008 Jose Lopez .328 -5.8 .322
2009 Jose Lopez .325 1.2 .303
2008 O. Hudson .358 -5.1 .367
2009 O. Hudson .342 -3.3 .357
2008 F. Lopez .320 -5.3 .343
2009 F. Lopez .356 7.8 .383
BABIP WAR
2008 Jose Lopez .311 2.0
2009 Jose Lopez .274 2.6
2008 O. Hudson .344 2.0
2009 O. Hudson .332 2.9
2008 F. Lopez .331 .8
2009 F. Lopez .360 4.6
Can someone give me a quick break down on BABIP as it relates to hitters? It seems to me that if Jose Lopez can bring his up in line with league average (around .290 vs his .274 last season) this coming season he pencils out for 2.5 to 3 WAR or basically at or above level of Hudson or F. Lopez. So this move would potentially net the Ms .5 to 1.5 WAR depending on Liriano but cost them 5 to 7 mil for a comparable 2b and $$$ to Minnesota. Overall, seems a more cost effective move than 7 to 10 mil for Sheets, as well as providing 2011 and 2012 with Liriano instead of just one year of Sheets. So from the M’s perspective makes sense. IDK enough about the Twins organization to offer an opinion there, but it seems to me like Lopez + Cash @ 2.5 WAR for Liriano at 1 to 1.5 WAR would make sense for them.
[low quality]
@amnizu
If you consider Hudson’s AL as opposed to NL performance, he looks considerably worse on offense. With Toronto, his wOBA was:
2002: .326
2003: .316
2004: .339
2005: .317
So other than 2004, his performance was comparable (or worse) than Jose Lopez. Add that to his unfavorable UZR comparison and one can argue that paying Orlando Hudson a substantial salary to play in the AL in 2010 represents a risk. If he regresses toward his previous AL numbers and his fielding is similar to 2009 (or worse), then he might not even deliver 2 WAR.