M’s Maybe To Trade For Kotchman
Buster Olney, among others, reports that the M’s are “expected” to acquire Casey Kotchman from the Red Sox for a minor leaguer.
Kotchman is a +1 to +1.5 win, 27-year-old first baseman whose value mostly comes from his contact skills and defense. He’s a Zduriencik kind of player – left-handed, patient approach, good defensively, young-ish with upside, coming off a poor year where his value is low. He’s got some value, and he’s certainly better than what the team already had in guys like Mike Carp.
What he’s not, however, is a big powerful thumper who is going to hit 30+ home runs. He’s a gap power guy whose ISO has declined each of the last two years, to the point where he’s been a below average hitter for the past two years. We talked about how power wasn’t utterly necessary with a guy like Chone Figgins or Nick Johnson because they did so many other things well, but Kotchman isn’t at that level. He has a good approach at the plate, but he’s not a 100 walk guy. He’s a good defender, but not a great one. He doesn’t run particularly well. So, given those other skills, he has to drive the ball to be a good player. And he hasn’t done it with regularity in a couple of years.
He’s worse than the Overbay/Branyan/LaRoche types by about +0.5 to +1 win per season. He’s cheaper, and younger, and healthier, but not as good. There are reasons to think he’s got some upside to maybe get to that +2 to +2.5 win level, but you can’t expect it, not after what he’s done the last two years. You hope for it, but you don’t count on it.
As a player, he’s kind of like Ryan Langerhans or Jack Hannahan. He’s a good role player, but you could do better. Unless the M’s are just out of money and can’t get any of the better free agents to sign here for what they’re offering, this is a bit of a curious move.
Update: Ken Rosenthal says Bill Hall is going to Boston in the deal. Interesting.
Comments
156 Responses to “M’s Maybe To Trade For Kotchman”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
I’d be fine with Kotchman spending one year in Seattle, leaving Carp with one more year in AAA, and bringing Carp up to start in the 2011 season. Hoping we’re not giving up a top prospect…
Also, it would be wonderful if people cut back on trying to bring the site to its knees by posting these rumors in threads where they don’t belong. Dealing with off-topic comments takes energy away from getting a thread up where you can actually discuss the subject.
[Zduriencik]
Would this mean he is our starting 1B? I assume we can fit him on the bench and I dont think he can cover other positions?
“Also, it would be wonderful if people cut back on trying to bring the site to its knees by posting these rumors in threads where they don’t belong.”
Guilty – Fair comment!
2.7 WAR for his career..
I’m completely underwhelmed.
Carlos Delgado had the same WAR last year as Kotchman, in 100 less games.
He’s only on the roster if he’s the starting first baseman.
I think it’s fair to say that Kotchman isn’t the caliber of player you’d expect to see in the starting nine of a playoff team (particularly at 1B). He does, however, seem tailor-made to be a useful bench player, but one would think he’d be most suitable in the other (NL) league.
Am I correct to assume that he’s out of options and we’d stand to lose him if we send him down? The only way this makes sense to me is if we expect to bring back Branyan and have Kotchman to provide better injury insurance than the guys currently at AAA.
I wonder if this means the M’s might put money in to an Orlando Hudson or Felipe Lopez and then move Jose Lopez for a Francisco Liriano type?
If they make this move, it has to mean they didn’t want to pay LaRoche and others what they were demanding.
I like the upside here. But we have so many of these guys on the roster already. However he does have a lot of the skills that Jack is building this team around which I love.
Seem to me that Jack is building a team with a lot of upside and with little downside. I think we have enough talent to beat the Angles this year but, not nearly enough to take on the Big Guns of the AL. However, if a few players have huge years I think anything is possible.
At least we have hope this year. Which is all we can ask for as fans.
Would this mean he is our starting 1B? I assume we can fit him on the bench and I dont think he can cover other positions?
The ESPN report says he would be “penciled in” to start. He’s never played at any other position, so he’s not terribly useful as a bench player considering how the roster is currently constructed.
FWIW, Olney (on 710 earlier) finished up his talk about Kotchman by mentioning that LaRoche has already turned down a 2 year deal from an unnamed team — apparently he is looking for something like 3/$31.5M
So clearly the team isn’t optimistic about Russell Branyan’s back and/or Branyan (and his agent) are still overly optimistic about it (and demanding too much).
Why so anti-Kotchman? He’s a former top prospect who was a 2.5 WAR player in 2007. Low-risk… High-reward. He’s not a thumper, but we’re not building around power anyway. I love this move.
I see him as an exceptional fielder, one of the top 3 in the league. Offense is a concern though, especially against LHP. This is his age 27 season so we will know soon what he can do. I see him as a positive addition with modest upside. So who plays first vs LHP?
Man, is Zduriencik just making sure he’s got all his ducks in a row for the meeting this Saturday so there won’t be any necessity for “we can’t comment on pending negotiations” statements? Nothing like a deadline to focus a guy’s mind….
What about Kotchman says high upside? If you want a high upside player for $5M you could just resign Branyan.
If the minor leaguer is any good I’ll be disappointed. I would rather the M’s take a risk with Branyan/Delgado and go with Carp as backup.
I am not too upset about this either. I realize it is not the Gonzalez trade we are all secretly hoping for, but I think Kotchman is a better player than the Langerhans/Hannahan comparison. One could argue he is about as valuable as Branyan was when he signed last year.
If the LaRoche salary demand is close to what was mentioned earlier, I think this is a fine option for now.
It would be sort of appropriate if the “minor leaguer” was Carp.
I like Kotchman in general, but I am not entirely pleased with this move because Kotchman is due arbitration. He will likely make more money then better FA’s. And he costs you a prospect.
On the other hand, there is not alot of risk with Kotchman. You have to look at the brightside sometimes, I suppose.
brock and salk saying deal might look something like Saunders + minor leaguer + cash?
I’m liking this less and less…
That’s pure speculation on Salk’s part…
Saunders was Salk’s speculation, and there’s no way that’s happening.
While I understand this site is entirely devoted to statistical analysis, there is something to be said for how good of a swing scouts perceive a player to have. Kotchman was considered (just a couple of years ago) to have one of the sweetest swings in the minors. He’s never really developed upon that promise, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t the potential for it to eventually come through.
My guess is this. Zduriencik doesn’t trust Branyan’s back and Kotchman provides a 1-1.5 WAR player with upside. We will definitely get our 5MM worth… hopefully more.
By what measure? Just batting average alone? They don’t seem too different otherwise.
Bill James 2010 projection for Carp includes: .257 average, .345 OBP, .746 OPS, 8 HR.
Mike Carp
Same for Kotchman is .272 average, .342 OBP, .759 OPS, 9 HR. Casey Kotchman
Carp’s a .4 WAR player, and (optimistically) fan-projected on Fangraphs as a 1.1 WAR for 2010. Kotchman’s has been above a 1.1 WAR player exactly once in 5 years.
I agree. But I’d go further and say that if Kotchman is the best the Mariners can do, I just honestly don’t see how Kotchman would be better or cheaper than trying out Carp and then picking up someone at midseason if the Mariners are buyers. I’d love for Kotchman to be this year’s Branyan; perhaps it’s now a rule for Zduriencik to have one diamond-in-the-rough player per season…
Are you kidding?..You have to be joking. No way is Jack going to send Saunders + minor leaguer + cash. That is crazy talk.
the “a minor-league player to be named later, a major-league role player and cash” package is coming from Alex Speier
The Red Sox also have very little leverage in this situation since everyone knows they have to clear Kotchman and Lowell. So the M’s had better not have traded anyone worthwhile…
Salk is now speculating Bill Hall
Maybe Jack is just thinking of Kotchman’s remarkable mid-season trade value, considering he’s been traded for Mark Teixeira and Adam LaRoche the last two deadlines. Adrian Gonzalez here we come!
Definitely? He hasn’t been worth it in the last two seasons. He’s been a worse hitter than Jose Lopez the last two seasons. In the best season of his career he had a .362 wOBA. His career high is 2.5 WAR, which is what Lopez had last season. That number was eclipsed by Martin Prado, Alberto Callaspo, Kevin Kouzmanoff, and matched by Andy LaRoche. He has to match his career year to be as good as Jose Lopez, and he’s going to make twice as much as Lopez.
He may very well have a pretty swing, but usually that will manifest itself before 1800 career PAs.
Like I said, completely underwhelmed.
If we’re giving up anything besides a no-name minor league player for Kotchman, it’s a bad deal, IMO. And, WE should be the ones getting cash sent OUR way in this since he’s arb. eligible. Hell, I’d rather just let Carp play (assuming they don’t trust Branyan’s back to hold up). I don’t think it’s too much of a stretch to imagine Carp being able to get close to Kotchman’s 2009 numbers.
I like this deal if it’s for a mid grade minor leaguer and/or a bench player, I don’t like it if it includes cash going to the Red Sox. I don’t see how it would make sense to take on Kotchman’s additional salary AND pay the Boston for that privilege. Seems to me to be a good cheap option that frees the remaining payroll for a #3 starter and deadline deals.
WEEI is reporting M’s are trading away minor league PTBNL, major league role player and cash.
W.T.F.
Hall would make sense in the context of the WEEI report because the cash in the transaction would be to cover Hall’s salary.
It’s hard for Seattle to lose on this deal.
He’s a .750 type OPS guy with a good glove. Nice upgrade for the time being. He had nearly identical stats to Beltre’s last year.
He looks like a younger version of Jose Vidro.
4.5MM per win, 1.1 and .8 WAR’s the last two “down” years. The .8 on limited AB’s. I’m sorry… I’ll rephrase… we have a 95% chance of, at the very least, getting our money back. He doesn’t have to be a 2.5 WAR player to break even.
Usually but not always… low-risk, high-reward.
I think everyone is under-selling Kotchman’s upside here. He hit .296/.372/.467 as a 24-year-old in 2007, and he was always a top prospect before that. I have no idea what happened to him in 2008 and 2009, but the numbers he put up in 2007 were pretty much what everyone expected of him. He doesn’t have star upside, but he has “good player” upside.
His floor is higher than Carp’s. His ceiling is higher than Carp’s. So no one should be comparing him to Carp, unless you want to point out that Carp is a lot cheaper.
I don’t love it, and depending on what is going to Boston, I might hate it. But right now I like it, as it is an immediate upgrade with some upside that not everyone is factoring in.
I could see it if its Hall, that would clear a bench spot and just transfer next seasons money from the brew crew over to Boston for Hall’s salary. Okay, liking this more now.
Nothing wrong with a .300 professional hitter.
Oh yeah, and nothing particularly lucky or fluky about Kotchman’s 2007 performance. .362 wOBA and his BABIP was only .308. His career K/B ratio is just under 1. His career GB/FB ratio is 1.78, which would be great if he was a gazelle. Dude needs to get the ball in the air with a little more frequency (it was only 1.52 in 2007, though his ISO was also higher that year).
As far as upside goes, Kotchman in 2007: 2.5 WAR, 6.0 UZR, .840 OPS. I think that or a little more is a reasonable best case scenario for a full season starting here.
I hope he is a younger version of Jose Vidro. Vidro was awesome at 27.
The back may be an issue, but I think it’s more likely they worry about his bat holding up.
Kotchman is a much, much better defensive player and is more experienced. I like this deal, assuming the M’s don’t give up too much.
Hoping we’re needing money for pitching. Otherwise, not loving the deal. Two marginal deals in a row, Jackercrack. Hmmmmm.
Like the Gut contract, though. Yay!
Next up: Felix
Back in Boston, the argument FOR Kotchman was that he was a tremendous minor league hitter in ways that predict ML success, but he hasn’t had a fair shake anywhere really, except in brief stints, where he did decently. IOW, breakout time? That was the positive spin. Also, when he was the Sox’ starting 1ber, they referred to him as an “excellent defender.” A year from now we’ll know how much of this was just hype.
Who’s going back the other way?
If Hall is indeed dealt here, maybe this deal opens up left-field to a more productive everyday guy? I suppose I should give Dave props and say that luke Scott is still an option if he can play both LF and 1B. But this “probably” scratches out any chance of LaRoche or Branyan. Gonna miss Russell, but he and his agent didn’t make it easy to re-sign him.
I meant Hall dealt in this trade not dealt “here” obviously.
Just look at FanGraphs, they do the math for you. He’s only been worth $5MM once in his entire career. I can’t imagine how that equates to a 95% chance. On top of that, $4.5MM is the market price, which in this instance means full price. If $4.5MM adjusts down then it gets worse.
What is your idea of high-reward? Even his career best season isn’t high reward.
formerstarQB said:
I agree completely. He could also turn out to be quite an asset a year from now. It’s very unlikely you could say the same thing about Branyan, Delgado, LaRoche, etc. That’s why I like this deal and hate the Morrow deal.
I’m assuming LaRoche was the first choice, and that we’re the team that made the two year offer, but I have no problem with turning down what he reportedly was demanding over three years.
Having tried to play college ball with a herniated disc, I can attest it is no picnic. And because Branyan swings as hard as anyone in baseball, the chances of re-injury seem high.
The good news here is that this should put to rest the suggestions of Lopez to first base.
And since this acquisition would fit perfectly into the pitching-plus-defense approach, I’m guessing if there’s any money left, it’s going to the likes of Sheets or another viable #3 starter. In which case, I’m absolutely fine with this.
This trade is going to cause a few new questions to the Z crew, come Saturday.
I would prefer that we all take a breath before analyzing a deal that is, quite possibly, a precursor to something else next week or next month. I suspect that, with the Bradley pick-up, it makes Hall expendable, and the cash that comes from Milwaukee goes straight out the door to Boston, if that is the deal.
I think that Jack has earned the right to do his deals the way he sees fit. None of these deals is a knee-jerk trade; that is not the way he and his team work.
Let’s all settle down until position players report; I suspect all will be clear then.
[off-topic]
I like this as a short-term, gap-stop solution. Clearly Carp can benefit from another season down in AAA with Saunders, and Kotchman provides us with someone decent over at 1B. He’s good enough to fill the gap, and bad enough to sit on the bench if we acquire a bigger bat.
Don’t be so lazy. In 2008 he was a 1.1 WAR player… in today’s market that translates to a 4.95MM break-even point. Last year he was a .8 WAR player with limited action. He only has to be a 1.11 WAR player to break-even.
High reward for me would be a return to 2007 form with positive growth. The ceiling of an additional +1-+2 WAR’s above break-even far outweighs his floor of a $0 asset. Especially with the increasingly marginal value of wins.
As a few others have said, I don’t get how Kotchman is better than Carp. They seem like similar players, actually. Weird deal.
Maybe they are trading Bill Hall for Kotchman.
Maybe the Mariners feel Kotchman is a better utility guy (1st, 3rd, LF) off the bench then Hall, or at least has more upside.
It boggles my mind that the Mariners prefer Kotchman to Lyle Overbay, who would fit absolutely perfectly with what Seattle is doing this year and wouldn’t cost much to acquire.
Rosenthal just tweeted that it is indeed Hall.
If Hall goes then you would think that Saunders is on the 25 man roster for sure. Don’t think they will give the job to Langerhans and Bradley to split 50/50.
The difference between Kotchman and Carp is defense. Also, he’s not much older than Carp and was once seen as a major prospect, so his offensive upside is higher. Once Bradley came over there wasn’t really a role for Hall, so the deal makes sense. I’d still like to see us get a cleanup hitter though.
If Hall is the “major league role player” going to the Red Sox, I think I might love this deal. In Dave’s articles about being unable to platoon the DH and the M’s current need for offense based on their LF/DH situation, needing to keep Bill Hall from playing regularly seemed to kind of throw a monkey wrench into acquiring a LF/1B type like Luke Scott.
The way this (Hall for Kotchman) seems to work out, Casey would take Hall’s place on the roster. This could possibly free the M’s up to run a platoon at 1st with someone like Ryan Garko joining Kotchman. Potentially, they could acquire Luke Scott instead, to play 1B/LF (1B when Bradley is in LF and Junior is at DH, and LF when Kotchman is at 1B and Bradley is at DH), though having two LH first basemen seems kind of odd.
I wouldn’t mind seeing Hall gone. He’s certainly a reclamation project, based on a rapidly declining hitting performance. I wasn’t impressed with him last year, and actually was dreading seeing Wak play him in left 50% of the time with Saunders in AAA.
Still not worth $5MM. A 95% chance is way too high.
Where exactly are those runs going to come from? He played as good a 1B as anyone in baseball last year, don’t expect too much improvement there. It’s going to be difficult for him to start hitting for power considering he doesn’t hit the ball in the air. Maybe he’ll hit the ball harder and raise his BABIP a bit, but he isn’t going to find 20 runs there.
Yeah, I don’t like the idea of getting Kotchman, at all! What are we thinking! There is a reason he is expendable, why pick up a player that adds to our problem, with lack of power and below average defensive skills. Jack, I think you need to go another direction. He’d be better off starting in AAA, not major league ready
This move makes a lot of sense from the perspective of the trade deadline. If Kotchman and others play their roles then come the trade deadline the Mariners should be potential buyers. If they did then trade for Adrian, Kotchman could take some time at DH, or Z could move him in a side deal. But his low salary makes both of those options tenable. A 1B with a higher salary could be more awkward.
If the M’s don’t end up doing as well as we hope (injuries, etc.) then it wouldn’t make sense to trade for Adrian because he wouldn’t make all the difference we’d need. So again, it makes sense to have a low cost option at 1B and try to finish as well as we can. Use the money later.
Can Kotchman actually play 3B or the OF? He never has in the majors or minors, but has he been practicing somewhere?
If it is Hall in return, then I’m 100% behind this.
In reference to a previous Dave post on LF and DH, my wish was that somehow there would be 450 ABs apiece for Bradley and Saunders. A Hall departure would certainly make that more possible.
Put Moore behind the plate and get one more starter, and I say we’re good to go.
I’m going to take a wild guess with no basis that everyone will laugh at and [wild guess with no basis that noone will laugh at]
I like this deal, as it gives Seattle various options between now and the trade deadline.
A)What charliemountain said, basically, Acquiring another first baseman, either a FA/trade this off-season, or going for someone like Adrian Gonzalez at the trade deadline.
B)Using the money saved by not going for a ‘LaRoche’ and going for another starting pitcher, and bringing Michael Saunders up onto the full time roster.
C)Possibly still go for a big DH/1B/LF power threat(essentially Kotchman takes Branyan’s place, and the player acquired here would take Hall’s) if nothing else. Someone suggested Luke Scott(but I guess he’d kinda be more of a weird hybrid of options A and C).
Doesn’t giving up Hall just leave the Mariners looking for another right-handed bat off the bench?
[Zduriencik]
I know there are limited guys out there still, but this team still needs a long ball threat. At some point, you need to sacrifice defense/strikeouts for some pop.(Especially since we have guys who fit Jackie Z ‘s model.
ML teams usually frown on LH third basemen.
And why’s that?
AS much as I’ve liked Jack’s deals, I have been a little worried of his enamorment with guys he had in the Milwaukee org. Glad toi see he wasn’t dead set on keeping Bill, who I thought didn’t show that much in his admittedly brief tenure in Seattle last year.
[off-topic]
I’m starting to worry that this Mariner lineup is too left-handed. Yes, Safeco fits lefties better than righties, but the team can’t be too dependent on left-handed hitters or the lineup gets really unbalanced.
This does open up a bench spot. Perhaps the team thinks that Tui is a viable alternative at the major league level as someone who can back up at 2B/3B.
[off-topic]
rigged12 said about Kotchman:
That’s just wrong. Why do you think Kotchman is a below average defensive firstbaseman?
Can Kotchman actually play 3B or LF, according to Fangraphs in 6 MLB seasons he has only played 1B. He plays 1b pretty well, so he may be able to pass as a backup at 1b.
I’m glad Hall is gone, but he could play 3rd. I try not to hold Hall’s lacksidaisical LF play last year against him because he was hurt. But it still rankles.
To me, watching Zduriencik is like watching a chess master at work. Individually the moves may not make sense but you just know that there is a master plan in the guy’s head and when it comes to fruition the opponent’s king will be dead.
ESPN is reporting that the Giants offered LaRoche the 2 year deal.
And not to kill the speculation, but can’t we wait and see what Jack delivers to us? Cliff Lee and a Guti extension bring him that much….
Thirdbase: switch hitter
LF/DH: switch hitter (with LHB options at both positions)
C: RHB
SS: RHB
2B: RHB
CF: RHB
Tui: on bench or AAA, RHB
Seriously, what?
You dont have to. Winning 3-2 counts just as much as winning 6-5.
I’d rather have Jack Hannahan at third off the bench, though Bill Hall could play a lot of other places.
With the glut of outfielders, I think Kotchman might just be a backup for a better, but more injury prone 1B…like say Branyan. The only troubling part of that is you would think you would go for a RHB as back/platoon split. But if this is just a simple trade of role players, it would make sense. Kotchman is your backup infielder and you go sign Branyan.
I for one do not like this trade if it includes Bill Hall, I think Hall could have been a major part for us this year if Lopez,Bradley,Chone gets injured at any point. K-man just doesn’t seem appealing to me.
But if Hannahan goes in to play third, Figgins can be moved to second or left if need be in a game.
Gut reaction; you’re right. Mea culpa.
Hall still wants to play every day and thinks he should. Notwithstanding his versatility, it wouldn’t have been likely here, nor does his present ability seem to warrant it. In Boston, there’s at least the prospect that someone like Ortiz or Drew might miss large chunks of time. Either way, it will be interesting to see how he adjusts, or how long he lasts.
I don’t think that’s true, at least among the authors. The site is devoted to intelligent thinking and analysis of baseball in general and the Mariners in particular.
Dave and Derek have often expounded on the importance of not getting buried in the numbers and of the importance of integrating all sources of information to enhance decision making.
*****
Frankly, just throwing out some of the more recent metric numbers is often every bit as lazy and cliched as trite analysis based on ERA and and faulty truisms.
Lol, I thought the exact same thing (that the lineup seemed too LH. Then I wrote everything out on paper and came to the same conclusion as Paul B.
Tui seems like a good RH utility player, providing he steps it up offensively a tad bit.
Assuming Tui, Bard, Hannahan, and Langerhans are the backups, the breakdown is actually pretty even:
5 LH batters (Ichiro, Kotchman, Griffey, Hannahan, and Langerhans)
5 RH batters (Moore, Lopez, Wilson, Gutierrez, and Tui)
3 SH batters (Figgins, Bradley, and Bard)
Not bad, if you ask me… trading Lopez for Liriano and adding Hudson would take away a RH batter and add a SH batter–even better.
Remember that Hannahan is also our backup shortstop.
I think Lopez just became a better defensive 2B. I like this move. Hall was not a favorite of mine and I wondered if there could be some fireworks between Bradley and him.
[shouting]
This is just not true. A run scored is the same whether it’s via a home run or a single.
Don’t forget there’s a lot to be said for playing regularly. The closest Kotchman ever came to 500 AB with one team was with the Angels in 2007. As a 24 year old he managed 443 AB and produced a .296 average with 11 dingers. I can see an upside here playing every day at age 27.
{new to this site, first post}
What is everyone’s thoughts on Bill Hall being the “major league ready/role player” in this deal?
We lose a usefull backup but shed some cash, right?
Power is not necassary to win. Both Marlins teams that have won have not been big power teams. They won with pitching, defense and agressive base running. Kotchman will be a good addition for a club built like the 2010 M’s
Dave,
Do you think that this ends the talks with Branyan?
Does this mean that Bradley is going to get more time in the field?
Or do you think there will be another move?
Thanks
*** Opening Day at Safeco. The M’s defense takes the field, fans go crazy, techno beats rock the earth. Players take their positions . . . and then . . . and absolute silence settles over the stadium. A befuddled Jose Lopez realizes that everyone – players, coaches, fans, ushers, vendors, seagulls, etc – are staring directly at him. Lopez forces a weak smile and adjusts his cap. He kicks the dirt. He pounds his glove with his fist (just like Bloomquist taught him!) but the crowd remains unappeased. Lopez looks around at his teammates, then down at his glove which *whomp* evaporates in a sudden burst of flame. The message is clear. The gloveless Lopez bows his head in shame and makes his way toward the dugout, a small plume of smoke from a singed wristband unfurling in his wake.
As Lopez enters the clubhouse, a giant bald eagle carrying a stubby wizard in a sleeveless wool robe descends upon the grass in shallow right-center field. Could it be? Yes! It’s J-Wiz! The crowd erupts, players pump their fists, techno beats rock the earth. The wizard removes his pointy cap, rubs his bald head and squints for a moment at the empty second base position. A subtle flourish of his wrist produces a spark of light and *poof!* a man in an M’s uniform standing in the spot which Lopez occupied just moments before. But who is that guy? He sure does look familiar. Hey, wait a minute! It’s Mark Ellis! Oh hell yeah!
Players exchange high fives, the crowd succumbs to spontaneous bacchanalia, techno beats rock the earth. ***
This officially ends the Lopez to 1st rumors unless Kotchman is only here as a trade chip.
The real question now may be who’s on second?
Jose Lopez? Tui? Chone? Orlando Hudson? None of the above?
This is certainly intriguing to say the least. . .
I think it’s a solid trade though if only because the only MLBer you gave up was Bill Hall.
Plus, Kotchman has sleeper potential next year playing every day in a good clubhouse environment at only 27 years old.
There still is some work to do though for this roster if it wants to have any chance to catch Boston and New York this year (no, that’s not a typo).
I assume you’re ok with some arrangement of Bradley-Lopez-Gutierrez-Kotchman (whatever order makes sense to you) hitting 3-4-5-6 in the lineup.
As the roster stands right now and assuming a 12-man pitching staff …
7 regular positions in the field are fixed, and you have Hannahan and Langerhans as reserves for middle infield and outfield, respectively.
That leaves four roster spots to handle LF, 1B, DH and PH. When if this deal is completed, three of those four spots are filled – Griffey (who can’t play anywhere on the field), Bradley (who can play OF but for whom you want to limit time on the field), and Kotchman (whom you probably only want at first base if he plays).
It seems the clear need at the present, then, is someone who can bring significant value at both 1B and LF.
It seems to me that Branyan doesn’t really fit too well anymore. Luke Scott, however, …
About the roster being too left-handed:
I’d prefer to avoid each of Griffey, Hannahan, Langerhans and Kotchman facing left-handed starters or loogies. With the roster posted by Mattlock, at least one of them will have to start against lefties, unless you use Moore or Bard as the DH.
Doh …
76 regular positions in the field are fixed, and you have Hannahan and Langerhans and Moore as reserves for middle infield and outfield and catcher, respectively.Ugh – if one more position player shows up, this deal does seem to mean that Saunders is odd-man-out and starts in Tacoma. Unless there’s an 11-man pitching staff.
I think Suanders will be at AAA this year and we could still get a guy like Luke Scott.
Anyway, looks like a potential win for us, I really like the upside and Kotchman is only going to be 27.
Yeah – Saunders looks like a good candidate to spend another year in Tacoma.
And that makes sense if the Mariners believe they have a window of opportunity in 2010. Fill that lost slot with someone who will bring more to the club in 2010. With Griffey leaving after the end of this year, you can even bring the right person in on a two-year deal without hamstringing the 2011 club significantly.
Assuming this move is finalized, would Vlad be an option to balance out the lineup with another RH bat with pop and share time with Griffey at DH or is that too many player without a position to play?
DH is set for the team. Griffey/Bradley is the way it looks now, enabling Bradley to maximize on his production by not playing every day in the field. Vlad would give the Mariners two guys that can’t play defense and another guy that shouldn’t be in the field every day.
Being a Bill Hall lover I’m saddened by this trade, but from an emotionless perspective I like it. Kotchman fills the platoon/bench 1B role we lacked. I’m assuming Langerhans will cover the OF Hannahan the IF. Kotch at 1b, Rob at C, and Griffey as tickler/DH. This gives us the option to get a attractive but injured 1B. Most people want a pop in the lineup, and there is not a no risk free option on the market. We either settled on a guy like Overbay, or took a flyer on Branyan, Delgado, etc. This is what I see this move setting up.
So it looks like Carp and Saunders both will be in the minors, which isn’t too bad of a strategy in my opinion. Both don’t add much over Kotch or Langerhauns, and benefit much more from a full season in the minors, than part time in the majors.
I hate to see Hall go, but it was the right move for the M’s, Now Boston has 3 of my favorite players (AB, Cammy, Hall)
I don’t see why Z would do this. I meani know he fills the hole at first but why Kotchman when there are other options out there like LaRoche. We have leverage with him with Langerhans. They’re best friends and nobody’s going to give him that 3 year 30 million deal he wants. He would take a pay cut, we have the money for him, and we go get a guy like Kotchman. There’s a reason why Boston didn’t want him. He’s unproductive. I like getting rid of Hall but Kotchman isn’t the answer at first.
Seems like you got a plausible hope of 1-2 WAR out of Kotchman
nextthis year, where as with Carp that would be a very high upside and probably in the range you’d look for from Branyan, too, coming back down off a career year (provided he could stay remotely healthy; if not it’s all downside and/or Carp.)Steve, I know this sounds link snark, but honestly, two questions
:
Are you saying this makes sense because we might bring in someone who could get us the one more win we might need to win the division? Well, I guess maybe.
But I think a better case could be made that for us to contend on the level of the Red Sox and Yankees we need to have substantive overachievements..and we can only realize those kinds of breakthroughs from younger players. Namely, Saunders and Moore. It could be that the there’s more ‘reliable’ performance from the likes of a Xavier Nady or a Josh Bard…but there is absolutely no upside. We need to take risks if we’re really going to contend.
How do we know that? Isn’t he here as long as he wants? Maybe I missed the part where he promised this is his last year.
I love this deal, Russell was a hitter but he struck out too much and then there is the issue with his back. Casey is a contact hitter with a great glove.
Losing Bill Hall does add some speculation as to if Jose Lopez will be moved or not, Hall could have filled in at 2nd. So if Lopez is moved i guess Figgins will be a 2nd.
All this talk about Vlad platooning at DH with Griffey and Bradley in the mix i think is just bunk, Vlad will be too expensive and will only be around for a year or two maybe. I think the line up is pretty good how it is, if Bradley shapes up he’ll be a good solid bat.
Whatever happens i just cant wait for this upcoming season. Its going to be fun.
Hopefully this is a prelude to a Luke Scott acquisition.
ugh blankenship, dont be that guy
How do you know Saunders won’t clearly outperform Langerhans?
Langerhans career MLB OPS: 711
Saunders 2009 Triple A OPS: 922
I say it’s a pretty good bet we get more from Saunders.
This deal is just awesome for the Mariners, Z’s done it again. You guys have the best GM in baseball, IMO, well right up there w/ BB.
First of all, look at what Z gave up: basically, nothing. Bill Hall, who has no value. I don’t know who the prospect is, but I’m guessing it’s not much.
Second, Casey is a great player who’s never gotten the respect that he deserves for his defense. He is a great defender and he will make that whole infield better. He’s a good contact hitter, doesn’t strike out very much at all, he’s 27 years old, inexpensive. Just a great, great deal assuming that the prospect isn’t anyone to high.
Didnt Langerhans sign a major league contract? I could be mistaken and dont know about his options, but wont he be on the team for sure?
Yep Langerhans signed a ML contract. So he is looking like our backup OF’er – unless Cory Patterson outplays him.
This deal still doesnt tell us who will play LF though. I am hoping it’s not Bradley. C’mon trade Jack, dont stop now!
My first thought at this is that maybe Z is looking for a cheap temporary option at the moment for 1st base but is also putting together a trade package at the deadline for someone like Adrian Gonzalez.. I would doubt red sox would be the front runners to get Gonzo now since they just signed beltre..
My second take at this trade would be that Z is putting something together right now for a trade this off season .. either way i see Kotchman as a temporary piece only leading to a bigger deal..
what do you guys think about mariners making a run at gonzo now?
Once upon a time, one of the authors did a post about how Hall and Hanahan gave us positional flexibility, essentially freeing up a roster spot (which one could argue was taken by Griffey). What does this trade do to that advantage? Discuss.
As has been pointed out by others, Langerhans is on a MLB contract, so it’s not a question of simply swapping roles between Langerhans and Saunders to get an instant upgrade.
Beyond that, if the Mariners are making a push for this year, that last LF/1B roster spot is the only remaining place where they can generate a large amount of added production. While Langerhans has upside, and could break out, he could equally well follow a more normal trajectory. Which is to say, it’s not likely that Saunders will generate the added value in 2010 that the team is likely looking for this season.
On top of that, as has been discussed previously, the Mariners seem to feel that overall Saunders would benefit from some additional time in Tacoma.
If Saunders should be on the verge of a breakout, that will be as evident in Tacoma, and would simply create an added roster option for something such as a mid-season acquisition.
But right now, if the team sees 2010 as a window, I think they’ll likely look someplace as other than Saunders for added production.
re: Bradley in LF… considering he’s a 3WAR player when he’s healthy, I’d like to say that we hope Bradley can play LF and play it all year.
Two points:
1. There’s no way this makes us too lefthanded.
At a minimum, we have 4 RH starters–CF SS 2B C. This means that given the 2 switchhitters (LF 3B), the best we can do against RHP is 5L and 4R batters. We can easily tolerate another LH bat to make it 6L-3R against RHP, still leaving at least 4L-5R against LHP. I would rather have the advantage against the more numerous RHPs.
2. Don’t rule out Branyan yet.
Kotchman frees us to get Branyan as DH, without having to worry about his back at 1B. This moves Griffey from DH to bench seeing minimal time.
I really am going to enjoy the moving and shaking of the M’s this season. Assuming they add a 1B/DH (lets call it Branyan) with that remaining roster spot the lineup will have Bradley at DH Branyan at 1B Langerhauns at LF, other days Bradley in LF Kotchman at 1b and Branyan at DH, and you could also have Brayan at first, Bradley at LF and Griffey at DH (although this seems like the worst of the three lineups). You throw in the bench catcher plays maybe once or twice a week, and you end up with Hannahan being the going guy not seeing regular action (although he would cover 2B, SS, and 3B, so he very well might). It should be a cool experience to be well acquainted with all 13 hitters, so that may not be the best way to produce a winning team.
Also assuming Kotchman is the bench 1B, would you expect Hannahan to backup 2b, SS, and 3B, or have Figgins cover 2B to limit Jack to 2 positions?
I certainly hope Kotchman doesn’t end up being the regular 1B; the Ms need a better player there if they are going to take the team to the next level. Anyone think a package of Ackley, Fields and another middling prospect would get the Padres to give up Gonzalez? I’d be thrilled with that trade.
*banging head on desk*
My god, if it’s not Lopez at first, it’s ‘How do we get Gonzalez?’
Been reading this blog for a couple of years now, and it’s rather funny, when it’s not driving me crazy, to see each year’s different This Is the Guy Who’s Going To Save the Mariners.
There’s a reason why A-rod left Texas to get his ring–it’s a team sport.
I think this is a nice little move with some caveats. My thoughts an questions.
Bill Hall isn’t great. He’s good in a platoon, but I think Kotchman is more useful to this team in this point in time.
I’m assuming we’re not giving more than a million bucks to the Red Sox to make this happen.
The minor league can’t be great. Tim Dierkes speculates it’s Josh Fields. I highly doubt it.
This isn’t blocking a mid-season 1B acquisition who may come available.
This opens up a spot for a RH 1B/DH/LF type (Nady or Garko) who brings more than Hall ever could.
This saves money for an SP signing, such as Sheets.
How much will Kotchman get via arbitration? I’ve seen 3 million thrown around to 5 million (per Rotoworld).
This kind of reminds me of the Gutierrez pickup from a year ago. Elite defender at the age where he could make some strides offensively and about mid season, people claim “Zduriencik is a genius!”
Trauser I don’t see that as a good trade as it appears that Z sees Ackley as the future of the M’s. We gave him a big contract if we’re trying him out at second it looks as If he’s the likely starter for 2011 at second. He just needs to work in defense. He showed in the fall league he can flat out hit.
I followed Kotchman from the minors to the Angels living in L.A., though I grew up in Boston and am a Sox fan. This guy is the real deal, you’re going to love him, and he will be an important cog in the new M’s playoff machine. Kotchman is one of those anomalies where simple stats simply don’t reflect either what happened or his potential (projections are based on historic data, which is skewed).
He came up at age 21 in 2004 for a predictably awful cup of coffee (128AB, .224/.565)
In 2005, at age 22, he came up for 143AB and did surprisingly well: .278/.352//484/.836 with 7/22/15 with 15BB/18K, showing great eye, good contact and some real power.
In 2006, at age 23, on the verge of early stardom, a super hot prospect, the poor kid got mono … and spent most of the season at home, having an awful 88AB before going on the DL.
In 2007, at age 24, he showed his true colors in 508AB with .296/372/.467/.840 with 11/68/64 and, this is not an error: 53BB/43K. In this year he was in the competition for a Gold Glove. Is he sounding good yet?
In 2008, at age 25, still with the Angels, in 398AB, he was hitting .287/.327/.448/.774 with 12/54/47 & 18BB/23K while listening to trade rumors. He was good enough to be traded, at the deadline, to Atlanta for Teixeira. He finished his next 175AB in Atlanta with a below average: .237/.647 with 2/20/18, but still an 18BB/16K.
In 2009, at age 26, he’s a pro, and he pulled himself together, and despite playing only part time he hit .282/.354/.409/.764 with 6/41/28 and 32BB/28K in 336AB. For his reward, he was moved again at the trade deadline, to Boston, where he slumped again in just 39G. But his first AB was a grand slam off Joba and the NYY. Nice. And his defense was considered in a class with Youk & Teix.
In 2010, at age 27, he gets traded again, to accomodate your Adrian Beltre at 3b, which moves Youk back to 1b. He is not needed as Victor Martinez plays 1b ever 4-5 days to rest his legs and to accomodate Tek, who is still critical to this team’s success.
If the M’s give this guy a shot, he is ready to break out. You get a GG caliber defender, a really smart baseball head at 1b with a strong, accurate arm (he will initiate 3-2-3 or 3-4-3 that most 1b wouldn’t consider). He is also a smart base runner, which compensates for his average speed. And, he can hit if given a chance to do so. Stats can only lump all his good & bad #’s together, making him look pretty average. They can’t account for age 21 call up, or age 23 mono, or trades at age 25 & 26 because he was doing so well. But the Sox & M’s FO figured that out, and so will the fans. Like many Sox fans, I will follow the Mariners very closely this season. Felix, Lee, Aardsma, Figgins, Kotchman, Branyan @ DH, etc. are very serious assets that need a little redemption, and are looking for a place to win the division, and I suspect they will do so.
Isn’t it safe to say that there is another move in Jack’s bag of tricks? Jose Lopez totally doesn’t fit into the mold of players that Jack wants, and I’m trying to see what Mark Lowe’s role is going to be, with League and Aardsma taking care of the 8th and 9th, and Kelley in reserve. I can totally believe that Lopez/Lowe are pieces in another trade, probably for a DH-type or platoon partner in LF or 1B, and Hudson is signed to play 2B.
I like the Kotchman deal because he seems to have much more upside than Hall, but I can’t believe that we’re done….
It’s not a good trade because Ackley can’t be traded this year.
Sigh.
Give up, gwangung. The players are all just baseball cards to be swapped by whooping boys out on the schoolyard.
And someone will always trade with you so you get exactly what you want at a total rip-off.
At least that’s the way I remember my childhood.
Gwangung Ackley can’t be traded because he’s the best prospect we got. I see him being a key player in years to come.
That would just be dumb to trade Lopez (and Lowe!) for a “DH-type” or platooner. Lopez is a major league starter. Trading him for a high-risk, high-reward SP like Liriano and signing Hudson or F. Lopez might make sense.
Dealing Lopez to deal him is just Bavasi-stupid.
If we give up Fields in this trade I will strongly question my Z-man fan club pledge pin! Last year he gave Fields millions just to sign. We could have taken a pass and gotten another draft pick? Giving up fields at this point makes no sence? He is the last power arm left?
Jake N., Baker call the minor leaguer “low-tier.” Maybe it is Fields (Bavasi drafted him, maybe he sucks), but it probably isn’t.
For those who were hoping for a trade for James Loney instead, I invite you to look at Kotchman vs. Loney Fangraphs Comparison.
Wow, basically the same guy. Though I’d say that Loney might have a bit more offensive upside, given the fact that he’s slightly younger and his hitting style seems to have more potential for an explosion.
Where they really differ is their defense. Kotchman is definitely superior.
Thanks taking the time to post Gerry.
I’ll take a break from my skeptism and drink some of that cool aid. That would be sweet if the stars align and this is Gutierrez 2.0 …… A boy can dream.
I bet we simply needed a little extra cash to get Harang (and possibly another bat like Scott) into the fold, and this was the only feasible way for Zduriencik to do it.
Another fun comparison. Baseball-Reference‘s top Similar batters through Age 26 for Casey Kotchman:
3. Nick Johnson (950)
The M’s just traded a backup (whom was next to free last year), likely low minor league scrub, and some cash for a 26 year old elite defender with a top prospect pedigree who has shown on base skills in the past and is at the age where he could start to show more power.
I realize there were better options out there to be gotten to fill the 1B hole, but I like this better than going 2 / $17M rumored to be offered by the Giants for Adam LaRoche.
Here’s where the cash savings in. To me it’s looking like either a signing (Sheets?), or a play for Harang or Liriano (which would also mean a 2B signing if Lopez goes). That’s my best guess, save at 1B to spend it on the best 3rd SP in the league that gets paired with Felix and Lee.
I would love to see one of Nady (better fit) or Garko (cheapest) or Scott (lefty?), and a pitcher with what’s left.
My guess is that Kotchman is going to be given first base on a full-time basis to show what he can do, much like Branyon last year. I like Gerry’s post, looking behind the numbers a bit. Kotchman’s overall stats took a bit of a dive when he went to Boston and came off the bench. If he’s a good defensive first-baseman, he may be worth more than his UZR ala John Olerud.
Seems also that the Ms are satisfied overall with Lopez. Adequate defense, decent driving in runs (he had the 2nd highest percentage of men on base turned into runs — first? Gutierrez), and I’ll bet they are going to work on his plate discipline.
The one piece I think that Jack Z intends to add is another quality starting pitcher. Not going after a more costly first-base option may leave him the money to do so.
Can’t say until they start beating the ball with the bat, but on paper the move seems good to me.
With Langerhans and Hannahan in reserve roles, Hall was redundant so he’s no great loss. Not a bad deal from the perspective of acquiring a cheap player with some upside. Not a great deal, though, if the goal is to go for it in 2010 since Kotchman seems like more of a stop gap acquisition.
It could be that Jack Z’s scouting instincts tell him that Kotchman is a guy who is potentially much better than what his previous numbers tell us.
I want to go on record as liking this deal. I think sometime around May someone will link back to this post to reference how skeptical the general consensus was at the time the deal was made.
Kotchman’s minor league career left him at nearly a .900 OPS, and exhibited doubles power which often translates well into HR power as a player enters his prime. His career BABIP in the ML so far is just .279– it seems to be too low to be sustainable the rest of his career. That is terrible and I don’t expect it to continue.
Good post, Gerry, I appreciate the detailed info.
However, it reminds me a little of Adrian Beltre’s Dodgers career – one big season and an excuse for every other year.
Anyway, I’ll keep the faith and look for a solid season from Casey.
Kotchman’s BABIP in 2006 was an astonishingly low .169. Now, that was just 88 PAs (in the year he was mostly out with mono) so it doesn’t carry enough weight to skew his numbers completely, but it does make his career averages lower than you’d expect them to be — and should be discounted a bit in projecting forward.
He may very well represent a good “buy low” candidate but he clearly won’t be the offensive upgrade Branyan was unless he breaks out in a big way — which of course is possible: his .362 wOBA in ’07 was close to Branyan’s .368 in ’09, and that was the last year he had a full-time job with the same team all season. Still, it’s a bit much to expect lightning in a bottle yet again (even Gutierrez isn’t going to be Gutierrez 2.0).
But he’s a LH batter without big platoon splits and he’s young, cheap, has some upside (with breakout potential). The “major illness followed by positional/organizational uncertainty” thing reminds me a bit of Carlos Guillen, actually.
Plus his name is easy to spell (though it’s not quite “Bill Hall”) and, hey, here’s something: you know all those first round players Zduriencik has been trading away? Kotchman was the 1st round pick (13th overall) for the hated Angels in ’01.
I wonder how, if at all, this affects how Dave and DMZ view Johnny Damon. The recent LF analysis assumed Hall in the mix. Damon does not have significant platoon splits. He would provide a 1.5+ WAR upgrade for LF or at least that’s how it seems to project over Saunders, more over Langerhans (assuming Bradley mainly DHs). Damon’s options appear to be narrowing. Maybe the $$ are still just too much to get him, even with the likely dropping price, but the trade for Kotchman makes this seem like more of a possibility.
Mark my words, Kotchman will be good. We will look back at this trade as a obvious win at the end of the year.
I don’t see how this would effect their view on Damon at all.
One would argue that Xavier Nady is a much better fit that for this club than Johnny Damon is to begin with, seeing how he can play LF and 1B.
299 innings in logged at 1B in 2005, 240 in 2006, and one would probably convince a guy to be a RH platoon at 1B against tough lefties seeing how he’s coming off a pretty major arm surgery.