Updated Take On Kotchman Deal
It’s funny how something as seemingly small as Bill Hall’s inclusion into the Casey Kotchman deal can change things. As noted below, I wasn’t a huge fan of acquiring Kotchman to be the everyday first baseman if that was the last piece the M’s would be adding. If Hall was still around, then you’d have your 13 position players, and that would be that. But with Kotchman essentially swapping places with Hall on the roster, it changes the dynamic somewhat.
With Kotchman replacing Hall, first base closes off for potential acquisitions. But, LF opens up a bit. Prior to this deal, I had outlined why we should expect some kind of Langerhans/Hall/Bradley platoon in left. Hall was likely to be the guy playing LF against lefties. That spot is now open, as there’s really no one on the roster currently to replace him.
So, it seems likely that the final roster spot will be given to an outfielder, replacing Hall on the roster, and probably eating into some of the at-bats that would have been given to Langerhans in the old setup. This would make the new guy a more regular player, probably in line for 400 to 500 AB, shifting Langerhans to a 4th OF role and keeping Bradley as more of a DH than an LF.
Until we know who that guy is, we can’t really evaluate the Kotchman deal. It’s a setup for another move, shifting the need from 1B to LF. I’d imagine the M’s already know who is going to fill that spot, though, and they decided they’d rather have that guy than any of the available first basemen at the current asking prices.
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Dave, do you have any idea who that left fielder might be?
Oh and might this deal be a way not to invest alot of money on first and solidify it until a possible trade for Gonzalez at the deadline? Seems logical seeing how much money LaRoche wants and that the red sox now have beltre at third and youkilis at first with no room for AGon.
Judging by how they didn’t want Bay’s defense in left field, can we rule out Johnny Damon? I wouldn’t mind seeing him play in LF, he’s still putting up decent offensive numbers and a return to NY is apparently unlikely.
No, I think that the M’s would recognize Damon as a good fit at the right price due to all that he offers. He’s really not a bad defensive OF – he just has a weak arm. Other guys that might be fits for that spot are Johnny Gomes and Vladimiar Guerrero. Gomes slugged .539 or better against lefties and righties last year. Vlad is on the decline but if it’s not more than $4-5 mil he could be a fit.
I’d imagine a switch-hitter or right-hander is more likely. Probably not going to be a big name guy who wants to play everyday, either – they’re still going to want to run out the Bradley in LF/Griffey at DH line-up some days, so the new guy has to expect some bench time.
I’d think more along the lines of Angel Pagan or Ryan Raburn. Someone like that.
Maybe we’re getting Matt Holliday?
I wonder if filling the LF hole will be through trade or free agency. (Damon)
Oops, I put a HTML-esque (/kidding) tag after the Holliday reference above, but the board obviously didn’t like that.
not much of a news follower I’m guessing.
Probably too much to hope for, but it would help a lot if that right hand hitter could play both left and first.
Anyone know the physical status of Xavier Nady? I would much rather see him than Damon, Guerrero,Thome, Delgado, or most of the other DH/misc players mentioned here. Probably cheaper too. Better than adequate LF/RF with decent offense. Played some 1B too, but I don’t know how well.
This isn’t likely to happen, and probably isn’t a good idea, but part of me wants it to be Vlad. I want the Mariners to get him more than any other available player for aesthetic reasons alone. He and Ichiro provide my two favorite at bats to watch in all of MLB.
Trying to imagine selling “Angel Pagan” day at Safeco to Puyallup fans and failing.
Pagan and Raburn wouldn’t be eligible for free agency until 2013/2014 respectively and given the Gutierrez extension, Saunders doesn’t seem to have a place on the team in the near future.
Both guys are serious sleepers to have breakout 2010 campaigns. I personally had no idea Raburn was as good a hitter as he was this year. Would Detroit be dumb enough to part with him?
Does Xavier Nady fit into that mold?
Please note that I used Pagan and Raburn as examples of player types, not specific guys that the M’s will go after.
Grady Sizemore?
I don’t really get why we would trade for a young LF after locking up Guti and having Ackley, If we did move Lowe/Lopez for a LF, I’d imagine it be more along the lines of a aging but productive LF to have a year or two.
Although while writing that I remembered Ackley is shifting to 2B, so if we did get a Raburn like player that would fully force Ackley into that position, so hopefully he could succeed there.
Either way I’m not too excited to have Kotchman as the everyday 1B, I’d like to have a Luke Scott Player, and have Langerhauns/Griffey/Kotchman rotate every few days as the 9th hitter/fielder.
It’s funny, just as people have pegged Boston as jettisoning Kotchman to “clear a roster spot”, it makes just as much sense for the M’s, if not more.
I think that with this deal we might be able to go after branyan or delgado , if either doesn’t work out we put in k-man but with the last couple of deals made I think that I speak for all Mariners fans when I say we have landed from cloud 9
I think Damon makes alot of sense. He can rotate between LF, DH & even play some 1B if need be.
A 2 yr/15-17 mil could probably get it done.
Johnny Damon throws like a girl. Seriously.
Also I don’t see why Ackley should be moved to second if Truinfel could be our second baseman of the future or Jose Lopez keeps improving … So I say we don’t go after another outfielder if most experts actually think Ackley will be with the team by all star break
Langerhans could be a defensive replacement late in games on the few days of the week he plays LF.
Kotchmann would be the 1B replacement on the days Damon plays 1B.
I think this lineup could use someone with Damon’s offensive capabilites.
…and the answer is Chris Woodward…possibly…
Would the M’s have enough flexibility to possibly take a chance on a high risk/high reward guy like Xavier Nady? I don’t know what his asking price would be (the fact that the Yankees turned down arbitration because he would “bust their budget” does irk me) and of course he might want to play more often than our platoon setup would allow, but maybe something reasonable could be negotiated given his very, very recent injury history. Plus, he can play 1b, which would be a perk.
Why would we waste 15 or 17 mil on Johnny Damon? Girl arm, getting old, and wouldnt play everyday. Please, the man hit good at Yankee stadium with the 20ft porch but other than that he’s garbage. We have plenty of speed now and Z wants solid defense. Not someone with an arm of puss. Damon couldn’t even throw out guys at Fenway with that tiny excuse for a left field. I could see maybe fa signing but please Z no more trades. Let’s save the farm for someone actually good like Gonzalez at the deadline.
what about going out and trading for a player like Seth Smith? Z has proven to be more favorable to filling holes through trade and Smith is a guy who is blocked by Brad Hawpe and could be a pretty darn good player if given more at bats.
How about bringing back Randy Winn? Solid clubhouse presence, switch hits, great defense at all three OF spots. His #s were a bit down last year but he’s been a pretty consistent hitter over the course of his career. Should come relatively cheap too.
Not saying I approve or disapprove any of these, but here’s a list of remaining available “outfielders” in free agency. Some have no business out there, and I’m sure a few retire, some aren’t really options, but here’s a sample of what’s there.
Johnny Damon
Jonny Gomes
Rocco Baldelli
Frank Catalanotto
Jermaine Dye
Vladimir Guerrero
Gabe Gross
Brian Giles
Xavier Nady
Randy Winn
Rick Ankiel
There are bargains to be had. Jobs are running out.
Vlad and Nady are the only real attractive names you listed, can someone tell me how bad Vlad really is in the outfield now a days? His UZR was only -.9 last year, but I have a feeling he was never really in the field. Last year he was roughly -9. I no that is not good, but Bay is -13 and Dye I think is worse than that, and they “can still field” if you watch ESPN or MLB Network.
Baseball Reference has Vladimir Guerrero playing the outfield in two games last season.
Vlad only played 2 games in RF last year.
I’m always been a Gomes fan, especially if we need some sock vs. the lefties, but his defense is not great.
Nady is the best fit, I feel, as he’s played 1B in the past.
I have a bias because Colorado is my NL favorite, but they do have a stellar farm-grown team. The problem is that they have a tendency to hold onto their best prospects until they can really develop them and trade them at their peak market values for maximum gain. Holliday was the prime example. I’d expect them to hold onto a guy like Seth Smith until they can really show him off, especially with his contract being near league minimum without being arbitration eligible until 2011.
I’m not going to even venture a guess who Jack Z will bring in for LF. So far I’m batting 0.00. I didn’t think Figgins would be seriously pursued. Kotchman came out of Left field and League came out of Right field and Cliff Lee came straight from heaven…OK I will guess…Carl Crawford…why not??
What about Saunders in left and use the money saved for another starter?
I called the Kotchman shot (in the epic First Base Options thread), so I’m trying to call all the shots.
My money is on Nady or Gomes, dark horse is Garko.
I understand that, but the guy is 27 and the tag of “prospect” is becoming closer to null and void every day that passes, and I apologize I misspoke before when I said Hawpe was blocking him. Its actually Carlon Gonzalez who is blocking him, and Gonzalez is 3 years younger then Smith. He is being used as a utility outfielder; even if hes platooning that LF hes still being underutilized and Z would prosper by relieving him of that problem. He was a 6.8 UZR in 76 games started in LF and he has the potential to be a .300, 20 HR, 3-4 WAR.
Is Damon really that bad in the field?? I’ve read how bad is arm is but a batting order of Ichiro! Figgins and Damon seems pretty impressive.
Hey Dave…
Any thoughts on Ankiel as a possible solution to left field?
Yes, he’s not a RH hitter, but he does have some power, can occasionally draw a walk, and seems to play above average defense at one of the outfield corners.
Why not Saunders? 400 – 500 AB is a decent look at him. Saunders against righties, Bradley against lefties, Langerhans is still the 4th OF.
CHONE projects Saunders in 2010 to be 1.1 WAR, fan predictions on fangraphs say 1.7 … Langerhans projects to be .3 … Bradley projects to 1.7 but he really shouldn’t see much of left field if possible…
Is there a 2 WAR or better left fielder available, to bat against righties? If not, why go shopping for some 1.5-ish bat when there’s a decent chance they already have that in Saunders?
I agree entirely that the kid has enormous potential that isn’t being tapped, but
1: The Rockies realize this as well and will likely be quite demanding and specific about the player(s) they would want from us, and
2: Remember that this Gonzalez fella came to Colorado as part of a THREE player deal for Holliday, which also gave them star closer Huston Street. They are pretty darn savvy when they wanna be.
You are comparing Sean Smith to Matt Holliday. Of course when you trade a guy like Holliday you are going to get a young stud in return…or you should at least.
Thank you argh, for making me laugh so hard my wife had to wake up and ask if I was all right.
In more concrete terms, though, I wouldn’t be mad if we stuck with Saunders/Langerhans/Bradley as the mostly LF platoon. I can’t see us finding anyone who’d be startlingly better than Saunders to slot in there for the kind of money the team seems to have left to sling around on that.
That would leave Griffey playing DH against all left-handers. His .310 OBP against them last year scares me.
Couldn’t they move Figgins to left and go after a 3B?
Rocco Baldelli might be an interesting pickup. He is solid vs LHP. He’s very good defensively. He’s still only 28. Unfortunately he does get injured often, but if used properly, he’d be a good 4th outfielder. Saunders could start vs RHP and Langerhans could be kept in AAA to be used when needed. In short stints he could cover briefly in CF as well. He’s got a strong arm and a great attitude. I think he’s worth a gamble.
Baldelli would give Saunders a cushion while not entirely blocking his progress. My hope is to see Saunders as a full time player eventually.
Eh, true. Langerhans and Hannahan are sub-.300 OBP vs. lefties too, which is a shame since the bench is rampagingly left-handed and this is the ideal place to use that.
Perhaps you have Saunders DH, then, to get him the at-bats. Need to see what you’ve got with him somehow…
…oh argh, Saunders is a lefty too. Bah. Moore, then.
I was just giving an example of how the Rockies know what they’re doing trade-wise, and they can scout on par with our crew, if not better. The only hole they have that we can realistically fill is bullpen, and they’d want somebody at least on par with Lowe/League/Aardsma, I’d wager. Would you make that trade? Maybe we could give them Triunfel+A/AA prospect to replace Atkins? Would you be comfortable with that? And those are probably conservative propositions given Smith’s rock-bottom contract, his major-leage (and playoff) experience, good projections, and the fact that the Rockies don’t necessarily want nor need to get rid of him. They’d have the upper hand.
Yeah, I’d love to see Seth Smith grow in an M’s uniform too, but I just don’t think that’s possible. We’ll see though, and hey, if I’m proven wrong, I’ll be right there with you on the welcome wagon.
…sorry, ignore my last 2 posts, if I’m not even keeping handedness and matchups straight I should go to bed…
I think some of you are ignoring the import of handedness.
If the LF platoon plan was something like Langerhans (L) / Bradley (S) / Hall (R) and the DH platoon was Griffey (L) / Bradley (S) then what right handed bat will be prowling left field while Bradley is batting righty as a DH?
We have enough left handed bats. The switch hitter that Dave mentions makes sense, for versatility. Figgins could go out there, too, but you’d need someone righty playing third. Any way you slice it, right handed bat (or switch) is what we’re after. Preferrably one who can play more than just corner outfield.
Wonder what the Angels want for Juan Rivera.
Seth Smith
Did you look at those splits?
Home .345/.427/.624 H 57 2B 14 3B 4
Away .241/.330/.400 H 41 2B 6 3B 0
What about name I heard early in the offseason LF/1B… Conor Jackson?
Freak valley sickness, prior to last year’s season he has 3 straight 800 + OPS seasons…
Draws walks, gets on base, can run a little which would help considering Wak’s style. Jackson also would be cheap since there was talk he would be non tendered… they have a propect they may want to give a look at 1B and have a crowed outfield.
He is a gap line drive hitter so he should fit right in at safeco… I am picturing him spraying the ball in the gaps with ichiro and figgins flying around the bases…
Entering age 27 season… sceams buy low!
Why isn’t his name coming up more?…
That is very interesting. He did have 1+ HR on the road though, so you can’t chock it all up to those mile-high flyballs.
Plus, bear in mind that in 2008, the splits for AVG/OPS/SLG were the other way around:
http://www.fangraphs.com/splits.aspx?playerid=7331&position=OF&page=0&split=ha&type=full
I don’t understand all the talk/assumptions that Bradley is going to be platooned.
Other than the routine off day every 3 weeks or so, I think he will start every day he is healthy and not suspended/being arraigned, etc.
OK–his BA and SLG against RHP dropped last year–but the odds are that last year was the abberation and he can still hit if happy. I think the Cubs even believe this.
Granted, he may lose ABs due to his proneness to injury, but that is not same as platoon. If he goes on DL you can call someone up to replace him, so no sense knocking yourself out trying to figure out how to back him up from the 25 man roster.
Connor Jackson (if healthy) is a very good hitter, and righthanded. he usually crushes LHP. He is very poor defensively, both at 1b & LF. Baldelli is a far better defensive player. Both are question marks health wise.
No such luck. His winter ball performance reassured the D-Backs that he is spry again.
Last I heard, they were asking the Braves for a young starting pitcher in return. And I don’t expect a guy like Fister would fit the kind of bill they were looking for.
Every position player Jack Zduriencik has acquired up to this point has been at least PASSABLE at defense.
After picking up Gutierrez, Chavez, Wilson, Figgins and Kotchman, I think we can safely say that GMZ values defensive prowess highly.
We can also probably deduce that guys like Vladimir Guerrero, Jermaine Dye and Jonny Gomes will not be patrolling left field for the Mariners in the forseeable future.
How about Rocco Baldelli?
Raburn would be amazing. Wouldn’t it be beautiful in the M’s could woo Dombrowski in Washburn fashion to pry Raburn and Zach Miner off his hands? Hey, a guy can hope, right??
But I came across another FA that might fit the RH LF mold pretty well. In ’08, his last semi-full season, he posted a .303/.358/.420 triple slash in 333 AB, with a pretty sexy .333/.399/.449 in 147 AB vs LHP (extremely small sample size, I know).
But he’s been pretty damn consistent. Going back two more years to ’06, he put up a .319/.390/.479 in 461 AB, with .322/.422/.445 vs LHP, and an extremely serviceable .317/.370/.498 vs RHP. So overall, in his career, his triple slash is .313/.378/.463 against LHP and .282/.344/.411 overall. Granted, a few of those years he’s been helped by abnormally high BABIPs of .367, and when his BABIP has been low, his stats have obviously reflected such. But in general, offensively he seems pretty decent, particularly against left-handed pitching.
And defensively, he’d more than get by. He’s played various amounts at all three OF positions, and hasn’t fared tremendously well in CF or in RF. But in LF, he’s posted years of 39.1 UZR (100 games) and 23.3 (118 games). Again, this was in 2005 and 2006, and he hasn’t gotten significant consistent playing time since then.
His name? Reed Johnson.
Pardon me… that should read “…he’s posted years of 39.1 UZR/150 (100 games) and 23.3 UZR/150 (118 games).
Baldelli? Verrry high risk, perennially. We’d have Saunders to take his place should his unique health issues continue, but I don’t know if we should schedule Saunders’ development timetable around injury call-ups instead of, well, development.
The guy has been through hell though, and he’s got character. Gotta give him that. But I’d feel better if we didn’t have one high risk/high character signing on our roster already.
Raburn would be great. Problem is, the Tigers are trying to cut payroll. Good young players under team control for several years don’t seem to be the type of value they’re trying to part with.
Luke Scott plays the OF and 1st. He fits here and the O’s have too many OF’s.
Sounds good to me.
Luke Scott hits lefty. Not sure how platooning him with Kotchman would help that situation.
Barry Bonds in LF???
Of the free agents, doesn’t Randy Winn make the most sense. Great Fielder, switch hitter who has something left. He won’t expect 550 PA and can play all the outfield positions. He’s even pretty easy to deal if Saunders is ready.
At the risk of sounding uninformed, it shocks me how little we focus on offense when evaluating our team. I’m trying to understand how our lineup is going to look and with our current roster it just doesn’t strike me as a team that’s going to improve on its offense much from last year (I know all the WAR arguments and all). And I understand our defense is tremendous but, we had guys have greatly improved offensive years in 2009 (Lopez, Guti, etc.) which may come back to the mean and I’m not sure we’ve added much so far. I’m hoping Jack Z makes a splash with an offensively focused player.
Anyone care to guess the batting order? I’m interested to see if we have anyone that would fit the #3 (Bradley perhaps?) or cleanup holes. Looking at the roster I’m not seeing it… Anyone else feel this way?
I think you’re mistaken if you think the team’s not being evaluated based on offense as well.
Also, come on — just read these comments. There are a bazillion million people all asking “where do we get a big bat?” every day.
How about Felipe Lopez in a Mark Mclemore type role? He’s played left field before, seemed to like it and the Cards seemed to think he would be competent at it. Plus, it would be nice to have someone competent to play short in case of an injury to Jack Wilson.
I feel pretty comfortable with the top of the order (Ichiro, Figgins, Bradley) but I’m a little worried about who’s going to drive those guys in.
I still think a guy like Damon could be a smart signing & could fit pretty nicely into the #3 spot & shift everyone down.
Sure he has a noodle of an arm but he can still handle the bat real well. Plus, he can play LF, DH or even 1B.
If not Damon, what do you guys think about some of the FA OF’s like Nady, Ankiel or Church? With the market the way it is we might be able to get one of the guys talked about at a pretty good rate.
If the M’s are satisfied with LF, I think a guy worth checking out is Ryan Garko for a 1B platoon situation. He was off to a good start with CLE last season before their “firesale”. He & Kotchmann would get us bye & I’m sure Garko could be had real cheap on a 1-yr deal. Plus, I think he played some OF last season too.
So that brings me to the next question, if we just traded Branyan’s offense for Kotchman, is adding a mid-level RH OF going to get us back to the mean? And the mean was an offense ranked a distant 14th in the AL (of 14). With the increased spend on Kotchman and the decrease in offense from a plus offensive position, I’m beginning to question the approach. I’m sure Jack Z will continue to amaze, however, and when AG comes on-board for our playoff run, I’ll eat my words…
Yes, yes, you’re in the “must upgrade offense” crowd. We understand.
I say they should sign Vlad Guerrero, Jermaine Dye, Johnny Damon, and Rick Ankiel, and play them at LF, 1B, C, and RF, respectively. Ichiro can play SS, right?
/kidding
If you get too depressed, just remember your top of the rotation is King Felix and Cliff Lee.
But can Damon hit the cutoff man on the throw to second to catch the guy stealing?
No more about Damon. This would be an awful signing. He’d be hopeless playing left in Safeco, and is just way too expensive relative to his value — seriously, $12M for an additional win over what Saunders would provide? What about GMZ’s prior signings makes people think that Damon is the kind of player he might consider?
I don’t quite get these guys that think the offense hasn’t improved. Sure, they haven’t added any big sluggers. But Figgins is an offensive improvement over Beltre, and Bradley is certainly an improvement over Sweeney. Kotchman isn’t necessarily a guaranteed improvement over Branyan, but then again, neither was Branyan last year. What Kotchman is guaranteed to do is be better than Branyan defensively. So he might not create more (or even as many) but he’ll save more.
Then we have at least two guys that could potentially make quite a splash offensively–Moore and Gutierrez. Read Dave’s article entitled “Life to Flying Things” for more info about Guti. Even if his power doesn’t see a big jump and he just meets what he did last year, I can live with that. And as far as Moore is concerned, the guy put up consecutive years of .900 plus OPS in the lower minor leagues, and had an OBP of .346 in Tacoma last year. There’s some potential there as well.
When all’s said and done, I’d say the Mariners are at least where they ended last year offensively, and perhaps a little better. Where they have really improved is their defense and their pitching, and that alone makes them a better team than they were last year.
Actually, I think significantly better. Aside from the positions you mentioned, Saunders will post better than what we did last year in left, Wilson and Moore could not possibly be as bad as Yuni and Johnson.
And when people think about Branyan, they’re looking at the first half that we all loved. After the break…193/274/414. He has a slipped disc that I believe was not operated on. Kotchman can’t help but beat that, either.
But as has been mentioned here repeatedly, our last place finish in runs scored was related most directly to our last place finish in OBP. That was the primary area that needed addressing…and that’s what Jack has done.
I would bet my eyes that it will not be any of the available FA outfielders… Just not Jacks modus operandi it would seem given what he has shown us over the past year or so… I may be in the minority here, but i’m very excited to see what milton can do out there.. I don’t even really mind his bullshit… that man can hit a baseball
If you’re alright with the 3-4-5 hitters in the lineup being some order of Bradley-Lopez-Guti, for about 100-120 games this coming season, then it really doesn’t matter who comes in to take Hall’s roster space. Anyone above replacement level is goodness, basically.
If Bradley, Lopez and Guti (possibly a resurgent Kotchman) are not who you envision Wakamatsu putting on a lineup card at 3-4-5, there’s still work to do.
I guess it’s fair to say I’m really unhappy with the acquisition of Kotchman. We lost position flexibility with Hall (granted he’s nothing special but he can backup a number of positions) and we have filled one of our premium offensive positions with a player that’s average at best. Paying him $3.5MM instead of stepping up and getting a player like Nick Johnson for $6MM, is hard to swallow. I understand our OBP has improved and that Bradley has the potential to be solid but I don’t see how we have dramatically improved our offense (which we need to do) and thought we would in a position like first base where offensive production is expected. Just not excited about Kotchman as our starting first baseman. Hope there’s something else in the mix. I don’t see a platoon player making the impact we need to get our offense out of the cellar.
Lopez, the guy most seem to want to trade, as our #4 should be a tad concerning, don’t you think?
Keep mind I think Jack’s done a masterful job this offseason but there’s more work to do and the last couple of moves haven’t been in the same direction as our first couple – IMHO.
My two cents.
I agree with diderot statement, above. I believe that we are already significantly better than last year, as we have already added a much better defensive posture, better pitching, and an increase in team OBP.
Some of the ideas from posters for players we should get tells me that there is less metrics evaluation going in the thought process than I would have believed. Many of these posts are knee-jerk responses, and that is simply not the way that Z and Co. work.
C’mon guys, give the benefit to Z for knowing what he is doing. His plan may not have finished yet. I would suggest that we will not have seen the substance of the plan until the start of ST.
And forget about Adrian G; if we get him mid-season, great. That is a pipe dream, and one that I am not in favor of if it means stripping the farm teams of the best prospects. And Jack Z is not going to do that.
Bip-
I don’t see a platoon player making the impact we need to get our offense out of the cellar.
See: Branyan, Russell and Gutierrez, Death
Bip,
I understand your concern and it’s a common one. But even leaving aside whether we’re replacing the first half Branyan or the second half one, looking at our on base performance by position last year is truly mind boggling:
3B .300
C .282
LF .273
SS .262
That is simply astoundingly bad. I think this qualifies as ‘huge upside’.
How is trading for Kotchman evidence that we didn’t “step up” for Johnson. Maybe Johnson just didn’t want to play for Seattle.
Sorry if this has been brought up already and I missed it. But where does this deal leave Tui? Any change to his AAA/MLB roster status coming out of the spring?
The first law of offense is “Don’t make an out.”
The second law of offense is “See first law.”
You improve your OBP, you improve your offense. No ifs, ands or buts about that.
You’re looking at a decline at 1B–BUT NOT THAT MUCH OF ONE, given Branyan’s second half of a season.
You’re looking at substantial upticks at SS, 3B and DH and modest upticks at LF. You might get improvement at C, just through maturity. How does that NOT involve a substantially improved offense?
Who is our backup SS again? Figgins hasn’t played there since ’06, is it Hanahan? Ordinarily I’m not too worried about backups, but Wilson hasn’t exactly been Cal Ripken Jr. the last few years.
I’m sure it angers some folks when someone comes in and says they disagree with the current trade. I simply do. That’s in a vacuum, of course, as there are likely other deals down the road that will justify this. I understand this. I trust Jack Z, I just don’t like the move. I just don’t get it IF Kotchman is our starting 1B.
To answer a few of the comments above, I used Nick Johnson as an example. Spend a little more and get WAY more production. There are other 1B FA with much higher upside than Kotchman with not a lot more cost. Depending on available budget we might actually still get one.
As for platoon players, I don’t see Guti as a platoon and I don’t see a single platoon player giving us the big bat the bazillion million people have requested.
diderot and gwangung’s comments are valid as the OBP has improved and has upside but when applying this to the Kotchman deal, I don’t see how it improves our team. That’s my main argument.
Name one.
One of the mlb guys on kjr yesterday said “there are rumors that Kotchman would be flipped as part of a package that would bring Adrian Gonzalez to Seattle” sorry can’t remember who said it and take it FWIW
Without crunching #’s it’s hard to believe we’re alot better offensively than last season. Sure we improved our pitching with C. Lee but Washburn was incredible last season. Our defense will be better too at SS obviously.
1B Branyan > Kotchmann
2B Lopez = Lopez
SS Yuni = Wilson
3B Beltre < Figgins
RF Ichiro = Ichiro
CF Guti = Guti
LF Chavez/Langerhans < Bradley/Saunders?
DH Junior/Sweeney < Bradley/Junior
I sure hope our SP's & bullpen is up to the task!
It is Hannahan.
Kotchman is a great trade. Another good ex-Angel.
Looking at all the options laid out here in this thread for LF, I just don’t see a better solution than Luke Scott. The only problem in my mind is, Saunders. This guy is ready to become an outstanding LF. Fan Graphs has his UZR150 at 19.6. He had a .922 OPS in AAA, which was not a fluke. He has exceeded at every level he has played thus far in his career. It is hard to imagine that he will not do the same thing in the bigs, given the playing time.
It seems almost everyone is assuming the Mariners (Z) are making a run at the World Series this year because we picked up Cliff Lee. I would submit that Jack is trying to make the team better than last year, and trying to show a major free agent like Cliff Lee that the Mariners are serious about making the playoffs, and what a great place it would be to sign long term.
Tui was where my mind went as well, he is cheap and a decent backup option. When needed Figgins could play LF and Tui 3b. I would like to see the M’s spend whatever is left on a #3 starter or save it for deadline deals. I think at this point we have enough to cover LF when a LHP is on the bump via Saunders and Tui.
We should pick up Angel Pagan and Ben Sheets to finish up our bigger acquisitions of the offseason. Pagan had a respectable 5.8 UZR last year, while he had a .358 wOBA. If Sheets can return to form at all, then we would have a phenomenal 1-3. I wonder what the velocity on his fastball is coming in at right now.
How about someone like Josh Willingham? Sure he’s right handed, but he’s put up solid offensive numbers the last 2 years and isn’t awful in the field. Also, he’s played shortstop, third base, catcher, both corner outfield positions and is listed as the Nats backup 1B. He could platoon with Kotchman while still seeing some innings in LF. He’s versatile and can hit, and the Nats could use a 2B.
gwangung:
So if you were making the lineup card for 100 – 120 games, with the roster we have now, who would you have batting 3rd, 4th and 5th? And are you satisfied with the OBP of those players?
You should get to that…then come enter the conversation, and you might be taken seriously.
We are actually looking for a right handed hitter or a switch right now, so Willingham would fit that need. He would be a great addition, but it’s up to GMZ.
Other FA with some offensive upside better than Kotchman (.721 OPS):
Delgado (.914 OPS)
Branyan (.867 OPS)
We’d assume risk with either of the above but if this is the year, this is the year.
Have at it.
OK, you probably go downhill from Branyan to Kotchman (at least from healthy Branyan to Kotchman). But you improve the offense at 3B, LF, and DH (maybe improve it a lot at LF/DH if Bradley delivers (and stays out of jail). That’s an improvement in my book.
On the other hand, your team will decline defensively, since you’re playing without a catcher.
Kotchman would not be my first choice for first base but we need somebody there and he represents a value improvement over Hall, doesn’t come with any major obligations and has trade value, especially if trading for another first baseman. The trader would need somebody to replace the tradee. Nothing is preventing Carp (or Saunders in LF) from claiming the position in spring training if he has what it takes. If Carp is not up to it then Kotchman will be useful. I know GMZ has a much better grasp on the situation and its ramifications than I and most fans have. So if he thinks it’s a good deal I’m okay with it too.
To repeat a point made elsewhere; Power Bats and Home Runs are overrated. Put the Yankees or Red Sox in The Safe and they score far fewer runs. GMZ is building a team that will score and prevent scoring in their primary playing environment.
Would you rather have a possibly great hitter for half a year that is below average defensively? Or a potentially good hitter for the whole year that is terrific defensively? Russell Branyan projects to 1.2 WAR, according to CHONE. Delgado projects to 1.1 WAR. Kotchman projects to 1.2 WAR.
The big difference? K-man is all but guaranteed to be able to play all year. The other two are all but guaranteed to NOT be able to play all year.
And for the “TRADE FOR A-GON!!!!” guys, Kotchman would likely be much more attractive trade bait than the Muscle or Delgado, for the above reasons.
How about Jermaine Dye on a one year deal? Any takers?
Well, if Silva was still a starting pitcher for th M’s, that defensive alignment would make sense.
There is a Rob Johnson joke in there somewhere too.
In case you haven’t heard, Dye belongs in the OF about as much as Griffey. And he’s played all of 1 game at first in his career.
Check his UZR over the last couple years..
Delgado and Branyan both represent injury risks the M’s can’t afford this year.
I’ld like to hear Wakamatsu’s take on Kotchman since he was in the Angels’ org when Kotchman was a hot shot prospect jumping to the bigs at 21.
Kotchman is going to be a much better player than most hear give him credit for. He’ll hit for decent average, some power, take some walks in the 6 or 7 spot and play some solid D.
I can see a .280/.360/.480 line from him. That will get the job done on this team.
I would rather take a flyer on Branyan or Delgado with the upside (WAR in the 2-3 range when healthy) than Kotchman who has a WAR in the 1-2 range when healthy. I’m not saying there isn’t risk but if we’re going to compete for the playoffs this year I would go for the upside of either of these guys over what you can expect from Kotchman.
Bip, you can’t assume Delgado and Branyan are going to be healthy. They’ve both proven otherwise. Delgado is 38 with bad hips. That’s bad. Branyan is 34 with a herniated disc in his back. That’s bad. Kotchman is 27, with no history of injury problems. That’s good.
And he’s not 1-2 WAR range when healthy and getting consistent playing time–he’s also a 2-3 WAR player. It’s only one year, but that is his upside. His downside is 1-2 WAR.
Bip-
As for platoon players, I don’t see Guti as a platoon
I should have made my point a little more clearly: Gutz and Branyan were both either platoons or after-thoughts on their respective teams. Try not to judge what someone has done before. Our guys obviously saw something valuable in Kotch that others did not.
It doesn’t make me angry that you have a difference in opinion on the trade, but if you believe and trust in Z (as you said that you do) then wait until the whole off-season unfold before you make a determination. To me, this trade means nothing one way or the other,because it is only a puzzle piece, rather than the endgame.
If the M’s wanted to clear a roster spot so badly, they could have just released Hall. They’re paying his salary anyway. The M’s must feel that Kotchman is worth $5M this year, because that’s what they’re paying for him. I don’t get it.
Nady would make the most sense if he’s not too pricey. He’d play against lefties, platooning with Kotchman some of the time and playing left field some of the time. He’s probably too pricey, though…
Hey I can’t wait until Kotch trade is announced as I have already worked out my Casey Kotchman moniker – “Casey Kotchman – a poor man’s Lyle Overbay.”
I think he makes a ton of sense too. I don’t see him getting very much money though. The free agent market seems relatively depressed and he’s coming off a lost year. Anything over 3.5 mil would really surprise me.
I also think it would make sense for Jack to take a look at Felipe Lopez depending on how the scouts think he would adjust to left field. If he could be a +5 defender, it would provide the team with a quite a bit of flexibility. Theoretically, they could then even sign someone like Garko or Nady to play in Hannahan’s spot since he would no longer be needed to cover the MI.
Couple of points:
Assuming health is a risk was outlined in my argument. These players have been healthy before for full seasons, it’s reasonable to assume it can happen again. Plus, this argument means we should “assume” Jack Wilson won’t make it through the season nor Rob Johnson (injuries) nor Bradley (jailtime/meltdown) so there’s an inherent risk involved. I will argue that Delgado’s upside (which is closer to 3 WAR when healthy) is better than Kotchman (who has broken 2 WAR once in his career).
And I know we’re not done but my argument is based on our current situation (otherwise we can simply wait to comment until after ST).
Someone asked about backup at SS. Don’t forget that they signed Josh Wilson to a minor league contract. He did a pretty reasonable job in 45 games last year.
Did I miss this deal being finalized? Seems like a lot of certainty being declared. Maybe we could wait for an announcement before proclaiming the merits (or lack thereof).
I’m aware that Dye isn’t good in the OF anymore, but I was thinking of him as primarily a platoon partner for Griffey at DH, with Bradley in left most of the time. But if push came to shove, I think he could handle LF or 1B (albeit rather poorly). He’d be more useful than Mike Sweeney was though.
In GM Jack, I Trust. I did not know much about Aardsma or Gutierrez before, but Jack Z did. I never heard of Kotchman before, but I’ll wait until April before I decide on this deal…
This depends on the particular health problems. With some health problems, it’s reasonable. With others it is most definitely not reasonable.
As Dave has pointed out several times, there simply is no way we can carry two DH types who can’t play in the field. We can afford one…just too bad it has to be Junior:
Chone Projections:
Griffey (400+ ABs) 217/308/368, 15 HR, 51 RBI
Dye (500+ ABs) 257/332/461, 25 HR, 75 RBI
I guess I don’t see Dye being as completely useless in the field as Griffey or Sweeney. You wouldn’t want him out there regularly, but he could handle it in a pinch. Among Langerhans, Hannahan and Figgins (with Josh Wilson and Chris Woodward in Tacoma and available if there’s an injury) I think there’s enough flexibility to get by. It’s not perfect, but a lineup with Dye in the middle would look a lot better than what we have now, particularly on the road……
Dye was worse than Bay last year, I don’t want him anywhere near the outfield
Deal official, press conference at 4.
- You act as if someone like Nick Johnson is a thing that can be picked up at Best Buy with a price tage of $x. To just casually say that you “wish they would’ve spent a little more” assumes that you personally know Johnson and he would’ve accepted a little more to play for the Mariners.
Branyan has never played a full season. Of course Delgado has been healthy for a full season before–he’s enjoyed a long career. But he’s a health risk now because he’s 38 and just had hip surgery. So you’re wrong, it’s not reasonable to assume they can do it again.
Yes, the team is already taking risks with the players you named, which is precisely why they can’t take a risk on Delgado or Branyan as things stand now.
Argue it all you want, but it won’t change the fact that you’re wrong because you can’t really compare the two. Delgado has all but lost half of his game due to his health. He will lose a lot of his defensive value from his lack of range and potential hip injuries. So he may be able to produce offensively, but he will be a liability on defense.
The only other time Kotchman has topped 2 WAR also happens to be the only other time he has been in the situation in which he’ll be this year–a full-time starter.
So since you can’t accurately compare the two, your argument holds no water. Delgado is more likely to post a less than 1 WAR year than a 3 WAR year, and Kotchman is more likely to post a more than 2 WAR year than a 1 WAR year.
1- We can’t afford 2 Griffey’s on the roster.
2- Bradley hasn’t shown that he can stay healthy so far, why would that change now?
3- Better than Sweeney, what a ringing endorsement.
So, just to clarify beyond the WAR argument, mattlock, you’re excited about Kotchman as the M’s starting first baseman next year?
I know you think I’m wrong and I hope truly that I am and that Kotchman turns out to be very productive. My thought is, by now, he would have shown that since this will be his 4th team in 3 years. But there’s no stat for that (except maybe “backup”). Maybe he’ll go play like the Muscle and be better than a 1 WAR player. I’m just not excited and think other options out there would give us a better chance to make the post-season. I also think it’s fair to argue with some of the moves our org has made. I love Figgins and Lee, of course, but I’m underwhelmed by League and Kotchman.
It’s all relative, though, because Jack Z has done wonders with what he’s been given (post-Bavasi) so I, ultimately, trust he’s doing the right thing.
No, I wouldn’t say at all that I’m “excited” about Kotchman as the starting 1B. I think he has good potential, and I might be pretty much in love with him in 6 months, but only time will tell.
However, I’m a lot more excited about him than I would be if they’d resigned Branyan or signed Delgado. For a championship push, a reliable steady guy is a lot better than a ticking time bomb that likely won’t last through July. And, come July, K-man will be much better trade bait for a potential upgrade to a much more attractive name. If you think that a player of Kotchman’s caliber doesn’t belong on a playoff-bound team, remember the Dodgers. They made the NLCS with James Loney, and Kotchman is probably just about everything Loney is and more.
You mention the League acquisition. That is certainly something I’m really excited about. The guy had the best pitch in baseball last year, his career GB rate is 62%, and his numbers last year were inflated by the fact that he has trouble pitching on turf. Check out his splits on grass last year. The idea of League/Lowe/Aardsma in the 7th, 8th, and 9th next year makes me a little happier than is probably healthy for me.
This has to deal with the same position, but kind of a different note. If the club trades for Adrian Gonzalez, would they then also trade Cliff Lee at the deadline?
No way could they afford to extend Felix, Lee and Gonzo. Sure, they could just make a run for it and reach more than just the playoffs, but I don’t see them letting Lee reach Free Agency.
Now that I’m looking at it, if kotchman fills his potential and e en hits .280 lie he dic last year with the braves before being traded, I think it would be much smarter to keep lee and solidify the rotation and pass on Gonzalez and save the farm. There’s no way we can keep ichiro, Felix, lee, and AGon on the same team. That’s alot of money going to just 4 guys
Why not? You will receive draft picks.
Why would we recieve draft picks? Lee isn’t going to want to leave. Nobody who plays in safeco will ever want to leave. Not once you’ve played with the best defense in the mlb behind you and with such a good clubhouse atmosphere. Plus, I gurantee you that Cliff will decide to sign an extension as soon as he sees my sign on his safeco debut.
Mr. Egaas, If he becomes a free agent they’d get no greater than the 16th best draft pick and that’s if it is only that one team. It would likely be a top contender that signs him, so that’s a 25-30 pick and another just a few later. If you trade him, you could get a much better package. Quite a lot better than the Gillies, Ramirez and Aumont package we gave up to acquire him.
But, if you factor in the few months later that season it changes things. So, you’d be best off trying to trade him for a package of players head by a prospect similar to Max Scherzer or Phil Hughes. Again, I would only trade Cliff Lee if we were to trade for Adrian Gonzalez. But the more I look at Kotchman 2007 and his 2.5 WAR at that age, the more I want to keep Lee and go gamble with Kotchman.
Marinersmanjk, what’s your sign?
[quality]
[don't do that]
Marinersmanjk, nice. I want to make a Bradley sign. Make him feel welcome. Not sure what though…
Yeah, im riding the amtrak down and i looked at the times and it looks like it arrives bout 2 hours early so i want to see if i can get his autograph. I heard he’s a great guy just very opinionated and can’t handle the media. i don’t see any reason why he won’t fit right in with this club. It has to be one of the best teams to be on character wise. everyone has fun and now Bedard’s gone. He was the only one who seemed to be really quiet. I would think the only way to make bradley feel really welcome is to try to get his autograph and tell him that you really appreciate him being on the team. That would seem to be the only way. Something that sincere would make him feel at home and i can’t imagine you’d be the only one.
Please use punctuation and capitalization. Thank you.
I disagree with this statement. Why would someone give up top talent for 3 months of Cliff Lee? If the Mariners do trade him next season, it will not be for Phil Hughes.
I hope this becomes a moot point. Hopefully the Mariners will be not be sellers around the trade deadline.
If this is indeed the year that the M’s go “all out” I wouldn’t think that we would be sellers at the deadline. That is, unless, it becomes impossible to make the playoffs and keep Cliff from hitting free agency. I don’t see us being that far out of the playoffs and even if Cliff did opt for free agency we would still have a chance to resign him so it would seem unlikely that we would be sellers.
I love the idea of Josh Willingham, he only has 3 games at 1B in the majors, but I’m assuming he can do it. He is the best name I’ve seen brought up (though admittedly I don’t know much about Pagan or Raburn) 2.3 WAR last few years, projected to be 2.5 this year, though he is already 30 (31 by spring training) so he may come fairly cheap (possibly Lowe). I’d love to see him, Liriano, and Hudson here before the spring.
Do your homework, buddy. He’s a sinkhole in the OF. Kinda like a right-handed Ibanez. He’s only any good as a DH.
For those still thinking that Kotchman is a step in the right direction, here are the career stats of two first baseman.
BA/OBP/SLG
.261/.344/.507
.269/.337.406
The first guy is Richie Sexson. The 2nd guy is Casey Kotchman. Tee hee. Were we ever sold a bill of goods, huh? Richie Sexson has a higher OBP and would be the better player based on what y’all think is so valuable.
Casey Kotchman is a powerless version of Richie Sexson.
Wow.
Are you trying to troll or do you really have no idea what you’re talking about?
We can still upgrade at C as well.
I thought that was pretty obvious by now.
Statistics aside, I think it’s worthwhile to link over to Baker’s blog and watch the story about Kotchman’s mother. Along with Lopez’ family history, the right side of our infield will certainly lead the majors in personal trauma.
I have a very strong idea of what I am talking about, unfortunately it does not hue to the company line so it looks like I am trolling.
Do a real comparison of Sexson and Kotchman – they get there in a bit different way, but Richie’s career OBP is better and Kotchman has no power. I don’t make this stuff up.
I see Z making a point that Kotchman didn’t strike out much and of course, Sexson did strike out a lot. But at the end of the day I have to say, so what? A guy who grounds out and hits more poppers than Sexson, but has a full one hundred points lower slugging percentage. Sexson was a more productive hitter than this guy has been. Even in his four pitiful years for the Mariners Sexson’s numbers were .244/.334/.474 – one could quite easily argue that these numbers are better than Kotchman’s .269/.337/.406. I would certainly rather have Richie’s numbers. And remember, Richie was a decent fielding 1st baseman also.
So I really am serious when I say we now have a powerless Richie Sexson type player. The numbers say I am right.
I suspect someone will ultimately ape about the difference in salaries between the players…but again…is that really up to you? Richie did better for himself…why is that any skin off your nose? Kotchman is cheaper, because his value is less. Not saying that Sexson was not overpaid – he was, but as far as on the field product…Richie Sexson is a better player than the new guy we just installed at 1st.
And that sucks.
Richie Sexson was not a good fielder. You’re completely wrong about that.
No first baseman available is as good as Richie Sexson was in his prime.
I see that you answered rather emphatically that no, you do not know what you are talking about. Saves me the trouble of interacting with you in the future.
We don’t have a “company line”, and your constant accusations of groupthink are getting really, really old.
Cut it out, or go away. It really is that simple.
[trolling]
[more trolling]
Have you guys changed your opinion on this trade at all since hearing what Jack said at the USSM event?