Current depth chart for the next hour or so
Remember: this is not a 40 or 25-man roster.
Pitching
SP-R Felix Hernandez
SP-L Cliff Lee
SP-L Ryan Rowland-Smith
SP-R Ian Snell
SP-R Doug Fister
(SP-R Yusmeiro Petit, then there’s a grey area for a couple of the guys below)
Soooo let’s try and sort out the bullpen this time, rather than just leave a huge blob. Assume 7.
RP-R David Aardsma
RP-R Brandon League
RP-R Mark Lowe
RP-L Luke French
RP-L Jason Vargas
RP-L Garrett Olson
RP-R Shawn Kelley
(then the blob: RP-R Sean White, RP-R Kanekoa Texeira)
Position players
C-R Rob Johnson
C-R Adam Moore
1B-L Casey Kotchman
2B-R Jose Lopez
SS-R Jack Wilson
3B-B Chone Figgins
LF-L Michael Saunders
CF-R Franklin Gutierrez
RF-L Ichiro!
DH-L Ken Griffey Jr.
DH/LF-B Milton Bradley
IF-L Jack Hannahan
OF-L Ryan Langerhans
I’m inclined, like Dave, to think Saunders goes to AAA to start the season, and they run their multi-headed platoon in left/DH.
SS-R Chris Woodward probably becomes the team’s backup infielder stashed in AAA, or forces Hannahan down.
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We really need a power lefty arm in the pen, too.
I again shall repeat that ever since last month I as a Mariner fan have landed from cloud nine. But boy I hope GMZ sends me there again soon
[Teixeira]
In fact, it will be only one of Vargas or Olson.
Do you really think Olson, French AND Vargas will all beat out Sean White? I know he was a little hurt, but if he’s healthy I gotta take over over one of those guys.
[Teixeira]
Starting rotation looks like the best place to make a significant upgrade. Replacing Fister with a 2 win pitcher would be very helpful.
We really need another starter…. and also, the back end of the bullpen scares the hell out of me… but it’s the back end, so I think we’ll be okay.
I actually feel less comfortable about our roster now than I did before the deals for Kotchman and League.
The back end of the bullpen?? You mean the part controlled by League, Lowe, and Aardsma? What the hell about that could scare the hell out of you??
Two holes:
1) Right-handed, Lefty-crushing, 200-300 AB sort of guy. Xavier Nady, Ryan Raburn, etc.
2) High upside starting pitcher.
I disagree with those that are worried about the bullpen. Bullpens are unpredictable, but that one has the potential to be both useful (nice assortment of swing-men and lefties) and dominant (four RH power arms).
So for all you math wizards. What is the win total projection for this roster?
117!
I’d say 88-90 wins as currently constructed.
@d_a_cameron
M’s probably an 87-ish win team with Kotchman. Is that good enough? Don’t know.
The roster still looks a little unfinished. I would think another arm in the rotation and pray for big seasons from Moore and Kotchman. I also think Milton Bradley is going to have a monster year.
Gotta love that Jack has a master plan, so that gives me a lot of faith and excitment for this year.
The nice thing about this roster is the number of guys with significant upside. All of the following are players that I think could outperform their projections by as much as a win:
Felix
Lee
RRS
Snell
Moore
Kotchman
Saunders
Bradley
#3 starter seems to be the place to focus. If an upgrade in left presents itself then I’m sure Jack will jump on it, but I think the team is just fine with Saunders. I don’t see a trade coming until the deadline if we are in it (and I;m sure we will be).
mebpenguin, what are the projections you’re working from? What kind of monster year would Felix and Cliffy have to have to beat them by at least a win? I like being optimistic, but I think I’m looking for upside elsewhere — I do think Snell can find it again, and I think Kotchman will like playing every day, and I hope like hell Bradley can worship at the altar of Griffey enough to get his frickin’ head in the game for a year.
And I’m sure that Jose Lopez has to be wondering why everyone’s looking at him. Is there any realistic chance he gets moved? I like the offensive pop he has, but he’s undisciplined at the plate and his UZR (about +1.5) is “meh” at best. But who’d we move him for? Who’d play 2B? Tui? Ackerley? Can’t see it. I think Jose is our 2B for 2010.
Bradley is no Slouch in the Field with a UZR/150 in the OF is 6.1, if another move is made it would be for someone who would be DH/LF but mainly DH with Bradley Mainly in LF….I would look at Jermaine Dye
I started thinking about this a few days ago. I remember reading at BP and other places skepticism prior to 2001. Certainly, no one had any clue that a team with no real star players, after losing the player widely considered the best in baseball, would win the most games in major league history.
2000 OPS for 2001 starters and significant role-players:
C Wilson .627
1B Olerud .831
2B Boone .747
3B Bell .697
SS Guillen .720
LF Martin .791
CF Cameron .803
RF Ichiro —
DH Martinez 1.002
LF Javier .751
UT McLemore .669
Ichiro was a complete unknown. Buhner, who had posted an .883 OPS the year before, was on his last legs. Olerud was the on-base man, and Martinez was the best power bat. And I don’t think anyone anticipated Boone’s breakout year or the way Ichiro! would storm on the scene. Or that a historically great defense would turn a starting pitching staff that included Paul Abbott and Aaron Sele into something great.
Point isn’t that this team is as good as the 2001 M’s. No way. (For one thing, they don’t have anyone on par with Edgar’s bat). It’s that you could look at that 2001 roster and say: “this team isn’t going to go very far” and you’d find a lot of agreement. I mean, not many people would expect a team that platooned left field between Al Martin, Stan Javier, and Mark McLemore to win 116 games.
This is a very good team with potential, but still some missing pieces. It’s not a great team, but the pieces fit and I for one am excited to see what comes next.
I’m using the fans projections over at fangraphs.com (because I really do believe in the wisdom of the crowd principle), but here are the projected win totals so far.
Pitchers
SP-R Felix Hernandez – 6.0
SP-L Cliff Lee – 6.0
SP-L Ryan Rowland-Smith – 2.6
SP-R Ian Snell – 1.8
SP-R Doug Fister – N/A
RP-R David Aardsma – 1.2
RP-R Brandon League – 1.1
RP-R Mark Lowe – 0.8
RP-L Luke French – N/A
RP-L Jason Vargas – N/A
RP-L Garrett Olson – N/A
RP-R Shawn Kelley – N/A
Position players
C-R Rob Johnson – 0.5
C-R Adam Moore – 1.6
1B-L Casey Kotchman – 1.5
2B-R Jose Lopez – 2.3
SS-R Jack Wilson – 1.8
3B-B Chone Figgins – 4.3
LF-L Michael Saunders – 1.7
CF-R Franklin Gutierrez – 4.6
RF-L Ichiro! – 4.4
DH-L Ken Griffey Jr. – 0.2
DH/LF-B Milton Bradley – 2.8
IF-L Jack Hannahan – 1.5
OF-L Ryan Langerhans – 0.9
Which gives us a grand total of 47.6 wins above replacement. A replacement level team would win 46.2 games, based on a quick search of fangraphs, and me ripping that number right from a reply from Tom Tango. Which (and granted this is the fan projections at fangraphs) gives us a projected win total of 93.8.
This is a good team, and GMZ is not even finished yet. Take the fan projections with a grain of salt if you will (and you should) but those are the numbers the crowd has gathered, and those numbers do not even include players that have not accumulated enough projections to attribute a projected WAR to.
Using CHONE though, the position players listed lose about 10 wins as a whole.
Yes, but CHONE also has both Guti and Ichiro as 2.5 WAR players, and even with regression from both, 2.5 WAR is so far out of a standard deviation that is is essentially inapplicable. Remember, advanced metrics have always despised Ichiro.
Still, I completely understand where you are coming from. For the purpose of what I posted I went with the fan projections instead of CHONE, I will add up the CHONE projections as soon as possible for comparisons sake.
Why in the world would Woodward send Hannahan down? Veteranacity?
I wonder if the WAR projections you’re using include the proper number of plate appearances and innings in the aggregate. Tough to say without adding them all up.
After adding up the CHONE projections for position players, our position players are 17.9 WAR in CHONE versus 28.1 WAR via the fan projections. The biggest differences were Ichiro and Guti being at 2.5 WAR each, and Figgins losing 1 WAR.
So use CHONE if you will, and combine it with the fan projections for the pitchers. That gives a baseline of 83.6 wins. I think that is low, and given CHONE’s inaccuries regarding Ichiro, I chose not to use it. Granted, I’m using a projection system that has no track record so far, but I still think it is a valuable tool. Several of our sabermetric brothers and sisters have taken the time to evaluate the Mariners. They have the M’s pegged at 93.8 wins. And frankly, I like that projection just fine.
I’ll be surprised if Fister beats out Petit for the 5th spot in the rotation.
I have a vision. The M’s beat the Cubs in game 7 of the WS. Starting pitcher Eric Bedard (we sign him in May) beats out Cubs starter Carlos Silva on a Casey Kotchman 3 run HR in the bottom of the 9th,to win 3-2.
I think that the team is probably right now somewhere between the CHONE predictions and the fan predictions. Pointing out Ichiro and Guti, there is pretty much a 2 WAR difference in the fan and CHONE predictions for each, with the fan predictions being the higher of the two. There are about 2 times as many home team fans voting than away fans for both Guti and Ichiro, and I would tend to side with people that watch those two players every day, especially with people watching Guti seeing that there is some power developing there that is probably not all just a fluke. Ichiro also defies age regression so far, so there is no reason to think his age 36 season is going to be much different from any other.
I guess this is a long way of saying I agree qirh Damn Yankees that 2.5 WAR projection is pretty ridiculous, and if you split the difference between CHONE and the fans, you get about a 3.5 win player for both of them. I’d say true talent we are about an 87 win team; 93.8 just seems a bit high, although I would not be surprised if we surpassed 90 wins.
I don’t believe there are any scenarios getting the Cubs to game seven of the World Series with Carlos Silva still in the rotation, let alone the playoff rotation.
I don’t believe there are any scenarios getting the Cubs to game seven of the World Series with Carlos Silva still in the rotation, let alone the playoff rotation.
That was tongue in cheek, I’m sorry you didn’t get that.
The one problem with you using FanGraphs’ projections is that Mariners players as a whole have been projected far more than players on other teams, which leads me to believe that those projections might be a little on the homer side (I say this because I know mine definitely were.)
You have to remember, FanGraphs gets a lot of traffic driven to them by a certain D. Cameron who many of us give Chick-Fil-A to.
I’ll be surprised if we don’t get a hold of another arm, and it never really comes down to a competition.
Maybe, but you can’t just add up the CHONE projectsions and call it good. There are some problems.
For example, CHONE projects Junior to be -0.6. Negative zero-point-six. Last year, he managed 0.2 WAR. If he’s on pace for a -0.6 year, I suspect his playing time will get sharply reduced, and replaced by someone (Langerhans?) who’ll clock in at least replacement level. So don’t add that -0.6 to your CHONE side.
And speaking of Langerhans, CHONE has him at 0.3. Maybe thats a playing time prediction, but if it’s a talent prediction, yikes. The guy averaged 0.7 WAR over the last two years and doesn’t seem like he’s going to fall off a cliff.
Then of course there’s Ichiro! and Gutierrez. We know CHONE hates Ichiro! (we hope Chone likes him though). It has him at 2.5 WAR, when his last four years have been 4.9, 5.7, 4.1, 5.1. Really, he’s going to be 40% worse than his worst recent year? 50% worse than his recent average?
And Guti turned in a 5.9 WAR season. He’s going to fall all the way back to 2.5? He’s 27, in his prime. Odds are he’ll regress from last year, but not that far.
I figure the position guys out like this:
RoJo 0.5
Moore 0.5
Kotchman 1.5
Lopez 2.5
Wilson 1.5
Figgins 3.5
Saunders 1.5
Gutierrez 4.0
Ichiro 4.5
Griffey 0.0
Bradley 2.0
Langerhans 0.5
Hanahan 1.5
TOTAL: 24.0
(it follows CHONE fairly closely except for the above noted anomolies, Saunders and Moore I gave slight bumps to).
With another 18 or 19 WAR coming from the pitching staff, that’s an 88-89 win team.
I’d still like to see another 2-3 WAR picked up somewhere, but given the committment to start the season with Griffey in the mix, I don’t imagine we could do better than adding another 1 or 2 at best. Still, that’s a contender for the suddenly weakened AL West.
I suspect fangraphs fan projections need a universal deflator of 15-20%. Or are they normalized at all? My guess is there isn’t comprehensive enough data (yet) to make the numbers add up and balance.
If you’ve ever looked at the Motley Fool’s caps system for rating stocks, it has to be massively deflated. A stock is three of five stars (or average) if only 5-6 times as many people expect it to go up as expect it to go down. Even stocks with the lowest one star rating have many more bulls than bears.
Are the CHONE projections also pronounced like “Shawn”?
I can’t imagine Sean White being healthy and NOT being in the bullpen. He may regress this year but Wak absolutely loved the guy last year and was moaning constantly about not having him the last two months.
With this current roster, I think we’ll compete for the AL West but our lack of middle-of-the-order hitters will really hurt. I’d predict 87 wins as we stand now. Hopefully we can make one or two more moves that will take us near 90. Then all we’d need is maybe one of our upside guys to breakout in order to win the AL West.
There is also the other Wilson, who looks to be in Tacoma, as the emergency backup SS.
I think it is very possible the Mariners are out of money. I do not feel any signings over the 3 mill mark will happen. I truely hope I am dead wrong. A strong starting pitcher would really be nice at this point. Maybe there is a team out there that cannot afford their arb elegible players and we pick a pitcher up for a couple mid level prospects. I see our rotation as the only large question mark that will keep us from downing the Angels.
Sweet batting order!
RF – Ichiro L
3rd – Figgins S
CF – Guitierrez R
DH – Griffey L – (Branyan L)- come on Z!!
LF – Bradley S
2nd – Lopez R
1st – Kotchman L
C – Bard S
SS – Wilson R
I know I know Moore or Johnson will be the primary catcher and what the h… am I doing batting Griffey so high!!!! Get Branyan as 1st into the Griffey slot and move Griffey to Kotchamns slot and still work. While that isnt a killer order, it doesnt have the same feeling of weakness that the Mariners have had the past few years. Plus a lot more defense!!!!!
Did my comment really get moderated away because I misspelled Teixeira, the same way DMZ did in the post? By doing that you also orphaned my comment immediately following it. Great job, nameless moderator.
Yeah, Leroy, that’s pretty bad, since you actually spelled it the same as DMZ. I’d say someone owes you an apology, but I guess the response to that would be: “owes?”.
@CCW
Yeah, I’m sure you’re right. What I’d hope for is an acknowledgement that a mistake was made and reassurance that the readers’ input is valued on this site. But, I think that is probably unlikely as well.
Kanekoa’s name is not spelled the same way as Mark’s, for those keeping score, and if something was obliterated for spelling the former’s surname correctly, then that seems like a mistake.
But if you have a problem with moderation, there are better ways to address things than complaining in the comments (and passive-aggressiveness endears you to all!).
Such as?
@Graham,
I don’t think you know what “passive-aggressive” means. Passive-aggressive would be me apologizing for the misspelling on this blog and complaining about the moderation here on other blogs.
And I suppose if DMZ jumped off a bridge, you would too?
Okay, that’s enough.
If you really think that having your comment removed for misspelling a player’s name (which is a long-standing rule here) is such a horrible wrong, send an email to the authors using the link provided to the left of the page.
Further metacommentary in this thread is off-topic and will be removed.
I am advocating a trade for Derek Lowe. Atlanta is stuck with a bad contract and wants out in the worst way. I believe they would take a French type SP and pay 1/2 of Lowe’s contract. Lowe is a sinker baller who eats up innings. I think he would be a good number 3 or 4 SP.
I’ll note that I didn’t see the original comment (nor was I the one that removed it) so I have no idea whether it was actually misspelled or not.
In any case, it doesn’t matter. Either present your case to the authors via email, or suck it up and accept that we’re not robots and might make the occasional mistake.
It just dawned on me, the depth chart above has 13 position players on it, and Saunders is one of these. If he starts the year in AAA, who replaces him on the 25-man? Woodward? Is he really a better option than Jo. Wilson? (Argh, why am I obsessing about the 25th man on the roster?).
If I remember Dave’s reasoning for Saunders being in AAA, it was because he should play every day for development purposes. What about Adam Moore? Given how much the team seems to like Johnson behind the plate, will Moore get enough playing time in Seattle? If the backup catcher get’s 2 starts a week, do we want Moore or Bard?
BTW, Leroy, nobody likes to read debates about comment moderation – if you have a question or problem, please email one of the mods and work it out between the two of you. Trying to argue it out in public is just rude to the rest of us. Hope that helps clarify some things.
[metacommentary]
JMHawkins, I think the plan is to sign a RHB for LF, and send Saunders down to AAA.
Too bad Jonny Gomes can’t play defense, his bat would be a nice fit for the platoon LF role. Of course, he graduated from the Dunn-Hawpe school of defense, so unless the M’s feel comfortable running Bradley out there every day, he doesn’t make sense.
Nady could be an OK fit and if he was going to find a full-time gig, you’d think he would have already found it. Plus he’d provide a little more 1B depth.
Come on Ben Sheets, give Seattle a chance!
That was my thinking as well, Dave predicted the team had somewhere around 25 Mil to spend this offseason. With Bradley (3 Mil), Lee (9 Mil) and Figgins (8 mil + 2 mil signing bonus) that’s 20 to 22 mil committed. Granted, that doesn’t take into consideration any deferred structure on those salaries.
1) Johnson is just terrible. Is there any hope Bard makes the club as the starter with Johnson as the backup? I’d like the C to be Bard and Alfonzo as the backup with Moore, along with Saunders, at AAA…if they are raking a month in, you bring them up. I’d like Johnson to be a throw-in in ANY trade…he’s junk…
2) There seem to be two theories on the last open spot. Dave thinks the Mariners are going with Bradley at DH and they will go get a new LF. Churchill thinks Bradley will spend most of the time in LF and that the team will bring in Thome or Branyan. Which is more likely to happen?
3) I could live with the roster as is, although it obviously could be improved, except for one more arm. I think that SP should be the new #1 priority now that 1B is finished. Sheets would be awesome, if he’d come here, but are there really any other options for a #3 SP out there?
The more I think about it, the more I want to spend the money we have on a #3 SP. The thought of running a 3 man playoff rotation of Felix/Lee and then the risk we sign (and assuming he’s still healthy). Lowe’s contract may be too big, I’m not sure how large it actually is, but with our shyness of big pitching contracts, not sure Lowe is too attractive, though he’d be awesome. Sheets is my favorite candidate, but it seems like a lot of people are after him. I wouldn’t mind trying Wang, though I think RRS would beat him out for the 3.
If it were Sheets, I’m not sure even the Sox or Yanks rotation would beat our playoff rotation. I think this is also when people’s wanting of a big bat comes in. The playoffs when Petite/Beckett/CC/Lester/Halladay(if we get that far) aren’t going to give up all the hits we need to produce runs. Ichiro Figgins will probably get on base once or twice a game, but if Bradley doesn’t knock them in, who does. It’s hard to imagine Kotchman hitting a homerun to put the M’s up in the ALCS.
Although while writing this I do feel more comfortable about our chances. Felix/Lee/Sheets/Ichiro/Figgins would really be a fearsome monster in the playoffs. No other team would have 3 arms of that quality, nor the two headed monster at the top of the lineup. If we can’t beat a team with 1 of our 2 Cy Young pitchers on the mound, and the best defense behind them, whoever beats us deserves it.
Just realized my break down above also omitted any additional dollars the M’s spend or save on Guti for his extension over Dave’s arbitration prediction and on Kotchman for arbitration.
Hi!
The spelling moderation was for Mark Teixeira the first baseman and proposed acquisition target/comparison point. If the other, correct Texiera was tagged by mistake, apologies all around.
Also please note that despite the contention there, Kanekoa’s name is spelled Texiera, and is correct in the original post.
Good? Good.
Maybe one of the FA SP’s out there (Sheets? Bedard?) will find out that multi-year deals just aren’t going to happen & sign a 1-yr deal or even a lesser 2-yr type of deal.
Pitching for a team with a solid bullpen in a pitchers park would only increase their value for 2011. Ala Adrian Beltre deal..
Thanks, DMZ.
The problem with that beyond $$$ is that Sheéts will most likely be on the DL by the playoffs.
I have this hunch that Corey Patterson makes this roster. Is it at the expense of Ryan Langerhans maybe but that’s my hunch. Patterson can play all three OF positions (as can Langerhans) but he can also pinch run and the way the roster is constructed now we really don’t have that element on the bench. Just a thought.
So, working from that depth chart, if you were Wakamatsu and had to make a lineup card today, who would be batting 3rd, 4th and 5th? And would you be comfortable seeing those players in that order for at least 100 – 120 games out of the season?
jjracoon earlier in the thread seems to be pretty stoked. Anyone else?
I wonder if GMZ is thinking of making a trade tha t involves a player that is capable of being that middle of the order threat but isn’t neccessarily one of the “big” names.
Yes. Assuming there’s money left.
The problem with this theory is that while the young guys are down in Tacoma, that pushes Johnson and Griffey into the everyday lineup. That alone would cost us wins during that period. If the thought is that the best players will create the most wins, you don’t want two guys in the lineup who could not earn starting jobs in San Diego or Pittsburgh–even if the NL had the DH.
Diderot-
Having Moore in AAA means that Bard or Alfonzo would be the starter. I’d rather have Bard than Johnson.
With Saunders in AAA, you could have Langerhans/Patterson in LF and Bradley at DH…
There are options.
Well, if we make the case of ordering players by descending OBP with some consideration to SLG (and Ichiro!’s penchant to hit leadoff), then it would look something like this (2009 OBP/SLG used for reference):
RF-L Ichiro! (.386/.465)
3B-B Chone Figgins (.395/.393)
DH/LF-B Milton Bradley (.378/.397)
CF-R Franklin Gutierrez (.339/.425)
1B-L Casey Kotchman (.339/.382)
DH-L Ken Griffey Jr. (.324/.411)
2B-R Jose Lopez (.303/.463)
SS-R Jack Wilson (.292/.362)
C-R Rob Johnson (.289/.326)
LF-L Michael Saunders (.258/.279)
(I know there’s 10, but take out the odd man out in the LF/DH merry-go-round)
I don’t know how much of a SLG difference is needed to offset OBP, so Lopez may bat higher.
Outside of Lopez being moved down the order, this kinda looks about right.
Chris, Leroy here, but you can call me Twain.
3-4-5: Bradley, Lopez, Kotchman and sometimes Gutierrez.
Stoked? No. Comfortable? Yes.
So now that Kotchman is our first baseman, I have a question about his defense. David Segui played with the worst-fielding second baseman (Joey Cora), third baseman (Russ Davis) and outfielder (Glenallen Hill) in baseball at their respective positions. He didn’t just field potential hits uber-well, he prevented numerous errors by catching all those wild throws from Cora and Davis. Can Kotchman do that too? Or is that taken into account when someone is described as a good-fielding first baseman?
Link
The Braves made every attempt to deal Lowe and were surprised to learn there were no suitors, even when they made it known that they’d eat $9 million of the $45 million he’s owed over the next three years.
Eating only 9 mil of the 45 isn’t enough to take on Lowe. He’s probably only a 4/5 starter in the AL now, and we’d have to give up some players to get him. Z has given up some players this year, and I only want him giving up more for an impact player. Not a SP that isn’t much better than guys we already have that will battle for the 5th spot.
What I really like about what Jack is doing is that he almost has the roster set for next season and its still early January. All the other GM’s are still scrambling to get the pieces they need (especially the AL West). Jack can now sit back and see what other teams need and deal from a position of strength. God I’m so excited about this season.
Tumwater-
I was thinking the same thing last night. Usually in ST there are lots of question marks with injuries and/or guys making or not making the team. It seems with a couple of moves still to go, the roster might be set before they even play a game in Arizona.
What do guys like Patterson and Woodward have to play for in ST if the roster is set? If they don’t even have the “chance” to make the MLB squad, what’s their incentive to busting it in ST?
Is this a good thing or not?
Arron-
If you look at it they not only have a solid 25 man roster but they have major league capable players as backups at AAA. Carp for 1B, Patterson in the OF, Woodward and Joshua Wilson for the infield, Bard if he doesn’t make the team at C etc, etc, etc.
They have 6 or 7 pitchers capable of starting and a plethora of quality relief pitchers. They may not have the kick ass lineup that a lot of teams have but they are slowy getting deep at most positions. I think they can weather injuries better then a lot of teams.
Oh, I love the depth, but I just wonder about playing the actual ST games already knowing the roster is set. There has to be some negatives along with the positives that we have depth and a set roster.
Maybe I’m just thinking it’s too good to be true…waiting for something bad to happen…
Too many years of negativity I guess.
I would think that these fringe major league players would be among the hardest working ones out there. They aren’t guaranteed anything, so that is reason enough to give it your all. Even if there isn’t an open spot on the major league team at the time, you never know what will happen as a result of injuries or trades. They are also showcasing themselves for other teams that might be interested in picking them up.
That depth metioned is also why I think they should start with Bard at C and Patterson/Langerhans in LF. I’d like to see Saunders and Moore have maybe half a season at AAA. If we could get by without them and bring them up later, it would be like making trade deadline moves.
Also, I think that Dave is probably right that if we bring in another bat, it will be for the LF platoon and not a DH. If that is the case, that provides even more depth and a better reason to have Saunders in AAA to start.
If the Mariners were in the playoff hunt, would they call up two rookies for the stretch run?
In anticipation of this upcoming season I’m like a 12 year old boy waiting, on Wednesday, for his first date on Friday night. I keep opening the fridge to look at the corsage and putting on and taking off my shirt and tie and sport coat. Combing and recombing my hair…you all get the picture.
Like major league umpires…
A better question would be “why wouldn’t they bust it in ST?”
There is way too much on the line for the ‘fringe’ type players in ST. The veterans are the only ones ‘coasting’ through ST. Even then, these are professionals. It isn’t like your old high school team
Liam- It would be if they were playing really well in Tacoma and the guys in Seattle at their positions were just holding down their spot for them. An upgrade is an upgrade; experience is important, but I think this team has a lot of veterans on it and if they were to put two rookies on it in July, they’d be okay. If they deserved it by their play in Tacoma.
I’m with ya Tumwater…my girlfriend is already getting sick of me talking Mariners baseball…it’s going to be a long season for her!!!
Am I happy with the current roster? January of last year we were sitting in the smoldering crater of the Bavasi-Fontaine Era having lost over 100 games. Yuni was our starting shortstop. January two years ago we were signing Brad Wilkerson as our starting right fielder! Richie Sexson was our “middle-of-the-order” bat. This January Cliff Lee is our #2 starter. Am I happy with the current roster? Do teenage girls like crappy vampire movies?
Even if Churchill is right on April 5th, Bradley’s
injury history suggests Dave might be right by the end of the season. What the M’s do may reflect how much they’re counting on Bradley remaining healthy (or how much they want to ensure that by giving him regular time off) vs what Wakamatsu most wants in terms of bats on his bench. Of course, all of that could be trumped by the opportunity to pluck a valuable talent from another team at low cost, as we’ve seen Zduriencik do with some regularity, so the answer could be “none of the above” because, I don’t know, he was able to trade a Skagit County bog for Chase Utley or something.
It’s amazing what has happened in such a short time, and despite that it’s amazing that we still need a dose of perspective like this every now and then. As the 2008 season shuddered zombielike into its unlamented grave I suggested that things weren’t necessarily as bad as they seemed, that Detroit had gone from 100+ wins to the postseason in three years not that long ago, and with the right moves (and a larger budget than the Tigers had) the M’s could do likewise. I didn’t really believe it, but I pointed out it was possible. But that position was pretty roundly dismissed, particularly by the people who noted that while the open GM and coach positions offered an opportunity for a fresh start and fresh thinking, the people doing the hiring for those positions remained the same so we should just resign ourselves to more sour wine in a different bottle.
How things have changed.
I don’t know how much shot this team has at the postseason (the Angels have been quiet this offseason…. too quiet) but I do know this will be a fun team to watch. Way more fun than crappy vampire movies, that’s for sure.
The thing I do like about the roster as of now, if Tui, Saunders, or Carp does (or others) have a break out year, there is some flexibility in terms of positions. Kotchman or Lopez are being paid so much money that they must have a starting spot.
Because of the depth and flexibility, there will be some competition for spots, and that will make for a better team in the long run.
Sorry “not being paid so much money they must have starting spots”
Plus, you don’t really want to award jobs based solely on performance in Spring Training anyway (think small sample size in bandbox ballparks with the wind blowing out).
I have already reserved a Hotel room in Peoria and will be buying my Spring Training tickets tomorrow. I can’t wait much longer.
I think if they are going to add another bat, it should be Ryan Doumit. This gives lots of flexibility because he can play C/1B, Chone can play 3B/LF/2B and Lopez can play 2B/1B. So you can basically split about 600-1000 PAs between Saunders, Tui, and Moore. You can disperse those just about however you want among those three, even cutting into Kotchman’s PAs if he’s not cutting it. And you’d still be in a place where you could easily upgrade at 1b, 3b, or lf if something does become available once the season is underway. If any of them aren’t ready yet, you can always send them back down and have reasonable options still available. I think this offers a lot more flexibility than someone like Xavier Nady.
Felix, RRS, Lowe, Kelley, Sean White, Lopez, Johnson, Moore, Ichiro!
That, unless I missed someone, is all that is left from the day Jack was signed.
On the day Zduriencik retires, I’m assuming the goal is that Felis is still around (since he’s not yet 24). Ichiro! might be in the Hall of Fame by then. My guess is it’s a race between RRS and Moore for who will be the third from last left. Whoever it is of those two will have exceeded expectations, but it’s expectable that we will have someone left from the prior regime who will do that. I’d love it to be Moore; we haven’t had a great catcher here, ever.
So who drives in the runs and can hit a home run?
If we need another bat it’s a right handed bench bat. With this roster the only Right handed bat off the bench is Jack Hannahan. That doesn’t look like too great an option. 2 left handed back up defensive outfielders looks a bit overkill. I’d say they’ll pick up a right handed bat that can play left or first as well as pinch hit and dh. A Vladimir Guerrero or Mike Sweeney type.
With this roster the only Right handed bat off the bench is Jack Hannahan.
Except Hannahan is lefthanded.
Anybody who has guys get on ahead of him. Seriously, that’s what upgrading OBP is all about. RBIs are team stats (unfortunately assigned to individual players), and they only accumulate if players get on base — HRs aside, you can’t drive in guys who aren’t already on the basepaths. A chain of high OBP guys getting on for each other is a more reliable way to score runs than a bunch of guys with power who make a lot of outs.
All of them? Seriously, of the position players currently expected to start for the M’s in 2010, all of them hit at least one home run in 2009 — even Adam Moore had one (in 23 ABs). The only exception would be Saunders, who didn’t put one over the fence in his 122 ABs last year, but I don’t think anyone expects that drought to last if he gets regular time in the majors; but he’s probably starting the season in Tacoma anyway. Woodward didn’t hit a dinger last year either (and has averaged just 3 a year in his career) but he’s a backup bench player at best.
Yeah, there isn’t the one fearsome big bat, and chicks dig the long ball and MOAR POWR!!!11one1 and all that, but maybe you just need to read
this.
Oh, man, now you did it. You linked to a LL article!
Yeah, I know — crossing the beams, dogs and cats living together, yadda yadda. But on the eve of the confab at Benaroya it seemed to fit into the spirit of togetherness. Koombiya, mutherfuckers!
Plus Dave was on a plane and so wasn’t able to write his usual three articles this week about why MOAR POWAR! isn’t really necessary.
Yeah, I’m stoked. I don’t think the offense will be ‘27 Yankees or anything, but they should be roughly average offensively. Coupled with an above average rotation and a really good defense, that means wins.
As far as 3-4-5 guys, I’d say vs Lefties:
(wOBA/ISO/Spd)
3. CF Gutierrez-R (.337/.160/5.0)
4. DH Bradley-S (.365/.174/3.2)
5. 2B Lopez-R (.324/.169/3.3)
and vs Righties:
3. LF Bradley-S (.365/.174/3.2)
4. DH Griffey-L (.328/.180/0.9)
5. CF Gutierrez-R (.337/.160/5.0)
Maybe Kotchman instead of Griffey, if Griffey falls off a cliff.
The wOBA, ISO and Spd numbers above are Bill James projections from Fangraphs.
The two lineups I looked at (using the Bill James projections) worked out to an expected league average in runs scored (about 0.04 above per game, actually). So the offense with the current roster and expectations is not horrible.
If they’re good players, why not?