Reacting To The Market
We’ve talked quite a bit about what type of player who makes sense as the final guy on the position player side of things, given the current roster – a right-handed outfielder who can swing the stick and not embarrass himself in the field would be the perfect complement to the current Bradley/Langerhans/Saunders group of LF options on the roster. There are any number of fairly cheap, useful players of that sort on the market, so the M’s should be able to fill that spot rather easily.
But sometimes, things happen that change your plans. And, given the market that is developing (or not developing, as the case may be) in Johnny Damon’s case, perhaps its time for the Mariners to consider an alternate plan in left field.
Buster Olney reported today that the market for Damon has “dried up”. The Yankees are holding steady on the fact that they only have $2 million left to spend, and they won’t expand their budget to bring him back. There was some talk that the A’s could still pursue Damon even after signing Ben Sheets, but Billy Beane threw water on that idea.
The other teams that had been rumored destinations for Damon either don’t seem interested or have already spent their money on other players. Olney speculates that $4 or $5 million on a one year deal may be the best that Damon could do, and he thought that kind of offer could come from Oakland, who now appears unlikely to pursue him.
There is apparently an opportunity for the Mariners here. As I wrote on FanGraphs today, there are a lot of similarities between Damon this year and Bobby Abreu a year ago. We all saw how the Abreu contract worked out for the Angels, and something like a 1 year, $5 million deal for Damon may be a similarly good idea for the M’s.
Damon is still a good player. He hits for average, draws walks, makes contact, and has some power. Sure, New Yankee Stadium helped him quite a bit last year, but Safeco is designed to help the same type of hitter, and he would find the right field porch in Seattle just as inviting. He’s a good enough defender to handle LF at Safeco, even as his range declines – there’s little evidence that he’s much worse than below average defensively at this point, and that includes his hilariously bad arm. The glove doesn’t even come close to canceling out the value he creates at the plate.
Given regular playing time, Damon should be a +2 to +3 win player, and the Mariners have playing time to offer him. Sure, it’s not ideal to add yet another LH hitter to the LF/DH mix, but Damon doesn’t need to be platooned, so you don’t have to replace Langerhans with a right-handed hitting outfielder in order to make it work (though you could if you wanted to). And you don’t walk away from a bargain just because it’s not ideal. If the M’s can really get Damon for $5M-ish, they won’t find a more cost effective way to upgrade the team in free agency.
You make a persuasive argument. But he’s 36, LH, and Johnny Damon. I suppose more Damon and less Griffey could only help.
That would be a nice deal. But, I cannot still get over the fact that M’s could’ve had Damon years ago, if they didn’t think so highly of Ryan Christianson.
Should they move Ichiro to LF if they acquired Damon?
Ichiro, Figgins, Damon, Bradley…could be a very respectable and fun to watch top 4.
eh? I hope you are joking!
Well it’s not like Bradley is a model citizen…so it’s good insurance, just in case. Even if Bradley stays in line this year he has only played 120 games once I believe…so Damon would help ease those concerns.
If they acquired Damon, he becomes the full time LF, no? And Bradley the full time DH? Griffey the professional pinch-hitter? I like the sound of that.
Don’t we have enough position players as it is? I think we should give saunders a shot before jumpind in and wasting half our budget kn a position we already have covered.
There’s more ground to cover in left field and Ichiro is the better defender.
This was my comment from the 20th under the “spending the rest” post
“Any chance with the new found money the M’s will take another look at left field? Swapping out Langerhans with a 3-4 win player would be sweet! I’m not sure the M’s could do it but I didn’t think they’d come up with Cliff Lee either. Would Damon on 1 year contract ala Abreu make any sense?”
I guess it just took a while to get my answer.
This is exactly why fans are not baseball General Managers. A professional, winning team is typically built by people who are not emotional about players nor do they often ‘feel’ they owe a player a shot.
Left field has the shortest throws of any of the outfield positions (think right field to third base for a moment). People would run first to third all day long if Damon were in right. Not exactly the run prevention defense we are looking for.
Would getting Damon quiet the critics about needing a big bat?
Not that we should care what they think. Even the Yankees have their detractors.
Ok, that makes sense.
While acquiring Damon is a significant bargain, I think Jack Z et al would think twice about signing an aging LF. Additionally, signing Damon would leave only Jack Hannahan to cover the entire infield. I would prefer we go after a utility player a la Bill Hall, who can help out in both the infield and outfield.
I could be wrong on the guy, but I think Tom Tango argued that Left Field was the second least important defensive position (with First Base being the least).
Also, Center Field is typically the domain of the rangiest of your OF’s because it has the most ground to cover when you account for the depth and curvature of the center field wall – including the extra space added by the left and right field foul territories.
That said, Guti in center and Ichiro in right sounds just about perfect, and the above likely explains why First Base and Left Field are the prime places to run our 3 or 4 man platoon.
I like saunders too…but the m’s have a shot this year. The extra win or two that Damon would provide just may be the difference. If you can add an extra win at any spot with no consequences (multiple years, trade cost) it makes a lot of sense on this years team
Why do we need all these utility players? Why not use someone young like saunders? If they’re utility players it’s not like we would expect big production from them. I still think signing washburn and bedard to cheap contracts would be a wise choice. That’s a killer rotation
My middle paragraph was supposed to read more like this:
Also, Center Field is typically the domain of the rangiest of your OF’s because it has the most ground to cover when you account for the depth and curvature of the center field wall – even when you add in the extra space added to LF and RF by the left and right field foul territories. The CF is typically the Outfield General of sorts too, calling off the LF and RF and infielders when necessary as well as directing OF traffic.
I’d be a lot more in favor of this idea if the M’s hadn’t already signed Kotchman: Damon is suited to Safeco and said he was willing to shift to 1B a couple of years ago.
Exactly. Damon can still cover ground; we can tolerate a weak arm in LF much more than right. And to be fair, even Damon never had a throw this short (AFAIK).
I think on some other thread there was a suggestion that Damon could be slotted in at 1B, where his worse-than-mine arm might be less of an issue. Does anyone think the idea of a LF/1B floater situation would work for Damon?
Utility players are necessary because we have an injury-prone roster and if we sign Damon, we leave one person to cover for the entire infield. It’s an issue of depth. With Jack Wilson expected to frequently miss games (and Jack Hannahan filling SS), it becomes necessary to have someone else who can backup the infield. Versatility is important, and having an injury prone team lacking depth (with a 12-man pitching staff, I might add) is a recipe for disaster. That is the reason for a utility player.
I’m no Damon fan, but I’m surprised Atlanta or Chicago (Cubs) hasn’t jumped on him.
Yeah. Bring him in. My only qualm – have we set up a playoff team with Carp at 1B? Much as I like Carp, that’s no mean feat.
The fact that this would give the M’s three of my four favorite players of the past decade makes it a very fun possibility for me. More objectively speaking, Damon is a solid OBP guy who seems motivated to get 3,000 hits and will be playing for his next contract. Seems like the low-risk, high-reward sort of contract that Jack excels at obtaining.
I agree with your reasoning here Dave, but it seems like spending $5 million on Damon to augment this kind of weird 100 way LF/DH platoon might not be optimal. Would it not make more sense to hold onto the money and see if there’s a bigger need it could fill come July?
I guess I just don’t see Damon providing enough upside.
Just my take away though.
Damon is projected for more WAR than both. Damon is better than the Griffey/Saunders/Langerhans options. And there is no reason the M’s couldn’t get Damon and a pitcher. Besides it seems most likely that a pitcher would now come via a trade.
Ok. Here’s what he does at the plate, compared to a certain former Mariner left fielder…
Comparing wOBA of Damon v. Ibanez
Damon’s moved around too much among the outfield positions to make it straightforward to compare his UZR over the last few years to Ibanez (someone cleverer than me with math, i.e. anyone, might jump in with some weighted average sort of thing…).
So, how much further would Damon’s UZR or UZR/150 have to deteriorate before we can recycle all the Ibanez defense jokes again?
One thing about our left-handed OF options is that Langerhans has a split contract, and not a guaranteed $500k major league deal. It would really suck for him, but the team can save $410,000 by stashing him in Tacoma and keeping him around as injury insurance. So, Damon allows you to have your cake and eat it too. Sign Damon, demote Langerhans (clearing up $400k in payroll and a roster spot), sign/trade for your other starting pitcher AND a right-handed utility infielder/outfielder like Tatis (or Rocco Baldelli, who can’t play infield but still has some upside if he can ever get remotely healthy).
How hilarious is the Yankees’ sudden and arbitrary insistence on being thrifty with their money?
“Now now, Johnny. We have $2 million more. Does it look like we’re made of money?”
I would like to see the look of disbelief.
Seriously, huh?
His arm is so bad that watching him throw makes me want to puke.
The Red Sox and Yankees playing hardball with their budget makes the free agent market a lot more interesting.
Obviously. Otherwise we’d have someone like Griffey still on the roster.
No…wait a minute…
Lol Pete seriously they have more money than god. But to add on to my earlier post why don’t we just save and wait for later one and maybe sign a utility infielder. We have more than enough outfielders so if we just sign another rotation arm and then maybe one of bedard or wang to bring in in june and we’re good to go.
Damon would replace Langerhans on the roster… making room for another IF utility type (Tui comes to mind… he’s athletic enough to learn corner OF in a pinch). I agree – teach Damon 1B to spell Kotchman maybe 80-20 of the time.
If Sheets got 10 M for being hurt all of last year, does that mean Bedard gets more than that since he pitched really well for half of last year?
Would it make more sense to have Damon start at DH and Bradley in left? I realize it might be a small sample size, but that -12 UZR/150 last year is still scary…
I love the potential drama of a sneering Damon coming up to the plate in a big game versus the Yankees…or the Red Sox.
pgaur82-
Keeping Bradley healthy and happy at DH should be a huge priority. Even if he has a bit more range than Damon, keeping him focused and his bat healthy has the potential to be hugely rewarding. He has a history of hitting better when he doesn’t have to worry about fielding.
He wouldn’t replace Langerhans as Milton Bradley can’t DH and be the team’s backup outfielder at the same time.
I like the idea of Damon and having three leadoff batters in our line-up, especially now, as I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Angels sign him. However, he is another lefty and throws like a sissy, but the image of him, Chone and Ichi running the bases at the same time is one I enjoy.
A la Eddie Murphy in 48HRS: Hee. I get that. That’s a funny joke.
Which is to say, Yeah, every single baseball fan, and probably a majority of Yankee supporters. (It is not possible for the Yankees to have “fans,” any more than it’s possible for a schoolyard bully to have “fans.” The Yankees only have supporters, of varying degrees of being cowed.)
ObMariners: 1995!
While Damon may have some value on a 5 million deal, a noodle-armed 36 year-old moving from Yankee stadium to Safeco is unlikely to produce like he’s done in the recent past. I’d pencil him in at 2 WAR and hope he doesn’t collapse. I’m not exactly thrilled with the prospect though.
Yes, Hannahan would be the only reserve infielder on the 25 man (assuming Langerhans is the 4th OF, Griffey is the pinch-hitter/tickler, and whoever is the backup C). However, Figgins can also play all infield positions, so he does give the roster flexibility. The M’s have Tui in Tacoma in case they need a righty utility man. Lopez can play 1B if needed.
While getting Damon at a great price is an idea I endorse, the one potential problem is that the M’s won’t have a RH hitter on the bench to counter opposing lefty relievers. You would not need to PH for Damon or Ichiro. And Bradley and Figgins switch-hit. Unless the M’s want to send up the backup catcher, though, Kotchman would seem to be left to his own against lefty specialists.
I just checked the Yankees’ roster. Currently listed as outfielders are Swisher, Granderson, Gardner, Miranda, Golson and Hoffmann. Sounds like two good players, a fourth outfielder and three no names to me. Makes me think that they are just playing Hardball with Damon.
Could be, but I think you are underrating gardner a bit. A left field of baldelli/reed johnson and gardner is actually pretty darn good.
I personally really like the Damon idea for us. And as a few other posters have pointed out, Damon would be a replacement for Langerhans. So Seattle could still sign a Tatis/Almezaga type player for the last roster spot.
Its hard to argue against ~2war at the price of 2-2.5mil/war.
I like the Damon of ’10 versus the Abreu of ’09 comparisons.
Sure his arm is a noodle but the can can still handle the bat.
What about someone like Felipe Lopez for the utility spot? He’d back up both middle infield spots & I show he played 17 games in the OF last season. Jack Wilson isn’t the healthiest of players so it could make sense.
If our starting OF consists of Ichiro!, Gutierrez, and Damon, I would project that those three will make all but approximately 50 of the starts in the OF. I would expect Griffey to make approximately 50 (maybe more) starts at DH. Thus, Milton Bradley can DH and be the team’s backup outfielder at the same time. We would not even need to spend money on the last bench player – he could be Josh Wilson or Chris Woodward.
First, it’s just hard to imagine this happening. I don’t think Jack Z signed Griffey to give him zero at-bats, and that’s what this would do.
Seems to me that $4-5M could be better spent elsewhere. Against lefties (say 30% of time), any one of a number of players available for probably $1M would be just as good, and in fact probably better than Damon. Against righties, the other 70% of ABs, some combination of Langerhans / Bradley or Griffey / Bradley is about a 1 WAR drop-off from Damon / Bradley. Personally, I’d play Langerhans in LF against righties in Safeco, where his range will make a big difference, and Bradley in LF against righties elsewhere.
So, you’d be paying $4-5M for a 1 WAR return. Not awful, but I think Jack could do better. Obviously, at some point if Damon’s price drops far enough, it would make sense, but at this point a guy like Reed Johnson makes more sense, assuming you could get him for $1M.
The problem is that the roster is well-constructed already for facing righties. It’s tough to squeeze wins out of it by signing a lefty hitter. It’s also going to be tough to squeeze wins out of it by signing a starting pitcher. To me, it would make sense to sign a RH platoon hitter for cheap (of which there are tons) and focus the bulk of the energy on a high-risk, high upside starting pitcher (Liriano?), and hope for the best.
I derived 50 non-Ichiro, Gutierrez, and Damon starts as follows: 10 in RF, 10 in CF, 20 in LF and 10 as a cushion.
CCW,
Who do you like for that? My choice is Garko. I also like Jesus Guzman, but I’m not sure about his fielding since all we have is FLD%. But he has played all around the infield and a little OF.
What about Catalanotto? He didn’t play much last year but I would take a flier on him for $2 mil or less if I could get him to sign. He even started at 2B a few times last year.
To me, it would make sense to sign a RH platoon hitter for cheap (of which there are tons) and focus the bulk of the energy on a high-risk, high upside starting pitcher (Liriano?), and hope for the best.
Agreed. I know you’re referring to a Reed Johnson type as the RH platoon hitter, but what if we instead got Jermaine Dye..i know he probably won’t come that cheap, but if we’re considering Damon, seems like Dye would be another obvious guy to consider for the middle of the order. He’s a RH power bat who plays an average left..or am i missing something here? Injury prone/bad defense/too old?
I’ve been thinking about Damon for a while, watching the market dry up for him; sure, it would upskittle the plan a bit, but the chance to get someone of his talent at what it looks like he’s going to be paid this year is not a chance to throw away because it might leave us a little thin in the infield. This one, you jump on Damon and figure out the details later.
Heck, if you’re worried about the infield depth, replace Langerhans with a utility guy who can play the infield. With Gutierrez and Ichiro! out there, it’s nice having another CF in reserve, but not really necessary.
Another LH.
An Eric Byrnes signing would be perfect in tendem with a Damon signing. Byrnes can’t be offered more than the league minimum since he’s already being paid by Arizona for next year, so its a cheap alternative. Of course, that would meaan Langerhans was out of a job, a situation all to familiar to him.
yikes..i just looked at Dyes numbers for last year on fangraphs…He was worth a whopping -0.3 WAR…WOW..His fielding is atrocious! Scratch that idea..
Here are some theoretically available for cheap right-handed left-fielders. Each comes with his own set of issues (availability, defense, cost, etc.), but this list is illustrative, not exhaustive. I’ve included career slash stats against lefties:
Gomes: .274 .369 .517
Swisher: .251 .395 .439
Byrnes: .284 .345 .511
Tatis: .272 .351 .457
Johnson: .313 .378 .463
Sheffield: .294 .375 .459 (just ’09 since career is a bad measure)
[Edit: add Garko, who has played LF before, though I doubt well: .313 .392 .495]
I like Byrnes and Johnson the best because they can acutally play defense. Gomes [ditto Garko] is tantalizing because he really can hit lefties hard, but he’d need to DH except in a pinch. In that case, Bradley would play LF against lefties.
CCW,
Thanks for that info. I didn’t realize Johnson hit lefties that well. Gomes is terrible in the OF, so he’s another DH type. On Garko, I agree, he’s unlikely to be very good in the OF. However, I can see him playing 3B in a pinch. That’s important in case Figgins has to move to SS or 2B in an emergency (e.g., Hannahan’s out). He’d also be the emergency/3rd catcher.
I have a hard time considering Swisher in that group. Isn’t he the starting RF for the Yankees? And Byrnes has been very different from his career numbers the last couple of years. I can’t see Arizona releasing him if they thought there was any chance he’d bounce back.
That would be a pretty good line-up.
RF Ichiro L
3B Figgins B
LF Damon L
DH Bradley B
CF Gutierrez R
1B Kotchman L
2B Lopez R
SS Wilson R
+ best available catcher.
ROTFL! They go from first to third with Damon in LEFT! Just say NO! Give Tui the job and let him play himself out of it.
And yet strangely enough, Damon’s arm has only cost his team a run and a half per year in left field. Or .1 wins per year. I’d say his offense probably outweighs that.
Tuiasosopo has never played the outfield, and Damon is a proven left-handed bat with decent speed and, besides the arm, acceptable defense. He makes sense, especially at a year/$5 million.
Plus, Ichiro, Figgins, Damon and Bradley are all switch or left-handed hitters, which suits Safeco perfectly. You could plug Damon in at first too if Kotchman doesn’t work out/Saunders breaks out.
Sorry, Fangraphs doesn’t have arm run values for all Damon’s time in left field. His arm actually is closer to -3 runs per year. But the overall point still stands.
This is one thing I’ve been hoping to see addressed by the authors here… The entire offseason, everyone has been assuming that Tui will spend the year in AAA again (which, similar to Saunders, would probably be better for him than a ML bench job). But considering how impressed the organization was with him last year, I wonder if they are entertaining the possibility of using him as the RH backup INF and possible LF option? We know he can cover 3B and 2B, and I couldn’t imagine him being too terrible in LF – although to my knowledge he’s never played the OF. I’m not advocating this – just curious why I haven’t seen him in the discussion at all when we know how much Wakamatsu likes him.
All that said, if they really can pick up Damon on the cheap and get him regular playing time, that should make them a better team than using Tui off the bench.
As bad as Damon’s arm is, outfield arms just don’t matter that much.
I disagree with that. Just because something is hard to measure doesn’t mean it doesn’t matter. Essentially, it’s the difference between someone being a LF versus a RF.
We can measure it. It doesn’t matter that much.
To be frank, you disagreeing with me serves as a pretty good validation of my opinion.
Since that statement if pretty vague, I will clarify. OF arms defensive value is hard to quantify and is significant to overall defensive value.
An opinion besides my own:
From: The UZR Era
Oooh, good one! FYI, being “frank” is not the same as being snide.
Outfield arms can be significant, but only in rare circumstances does one’s arm rating dramatically alter his value. Damon doesn’t take that much of a hit. His arm is just a small part of the overall package.
I didn’t say anything about Damon’s arm. You must have me confused with someone else. I didn’t even say I was against acquiring Damon or playing him in LF.
Nice edit, Sullivan.
I think adding Damon for the price Dave hinted at would be a tremendous move for the team. Who cares about “power” or “impact”?; he would bring another good hitter into a lineup that could use one. If it pushes Bradley to full-time DH, that might turn out to be a benefit. I like the Abreu analogy and find it apt. Good players sometimes gets squeezed out of organizations. Good GMs pounce.
The Nats have made it known that Josh Willingham is available.
I wonder if one of our young, SP’s would do much for them?
A solid, RH bat who can play LF, 1B & even an emergency catcher would be a nice find.
Assuming Byrnes would want to come this far north and all the south western US teams pass on him this would make great sense. You have to figure that with Bradley and Griffey they both are going to be hurt at some point during the season, this allows the M’s to call up Langerhans to stop gap without playing the up and down game with Saunders or Tui.
I hope the rumors to be true regarding a possible trade for Carl Crawford. That top of the lineup would be insane! However, that being said, I find it interesting that the Red Sox finally won it all when Damon was there and he played a huge role in that success.
Then he goes to the Yankees and they finally win another title. It seems to me Damon just ‘has it’. That quality that helps a team win, he has it.
I would be thrilled seeing Damon coming up in a big game with something on the line. I like the scenario another poster brought up re: Damon coming up to bat with that sneer on his face against the Sox or Yanks in a big game. I would be very happy with this signing, expecially if it’s a bargain, as Dave has suggested.
Even with the .040 difference in OBP, plus Damon’s wet noodle arm vs. Abreu’s cannon? OK, if you say so.
In a stunning announcement released this morning, replacing Pacquiao v. Mayweather on the fight card, we have Jeff & Jeff v. Leroy. Celebrity Trainer David Cameron has signed on to be in the Jeff & Jeff corner while Leroy is once again expected to fight valiantly until logic and forum friends have deserted his cause.
As impressed as the org might’ve been by Tui last year, it wasn’t enough to get Wakanatsu to actually to put him into a game when he started the season with the team. And it’s a bit crazy to expect a player to learn to play the outfield for the first time in the big leagues (and no, Spring Training wouldn’t be enough). If they had any plans to do this, they would’ve been playing him in the outfield all winter. But he’s been playing the infield in Puerto Rico (he’s currently listed as a 3B with Leones de Ponce — aside: does anybody know why he started out with Criollos de Caguas and then switched teams after 16 games?) Yes, given Zduriencik’s emphasis on positional flexibility, it might make some sense to give Tui a taste of the OF — but not in games that actually count when the team is trying to contend. Not this year.
As Dave noted in his intro, Safeco is not that different from NYS for a pull lefty like Damon.
I like the idea of Damon at a cheap rate, but it really makes the roster problematic. And I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up with Yankees after all, just at a reduced salary (and a reduced role).
The teams Eric Hinske has been on have gone to the WS the last three years straight, and two of them have won. If you’re looking for “it” he clearly has much more of it than Damon has. And he’s cheaper too.
The Crawford “rumor” came from a guy named Andy Auger over at bleacherreport.com….it was just a suggestion. People just blew it out of proportion. Zero credibility
Credible or not right now, I hope the Mariners are in a position to make a play for Crawford or Werth next winter. The way this off-season has played out, it’s difficult to envision anything more exciting.
But with several albatross contracts ending and Cliff Lee, Josh Beckett, Matt Cain, Rich Harden and Ted Lilly all becoming FA’s, the Mariners – especially with a strong showing this season – could easily be in the thick of it next winter too, and that doesn’t speak to mid-season trade possibilities this season if we are contending either. It’s a good time to be a Mariners fan.
Briggstar,
I enjoyed your comment.
However, I too am in Dave’s corner. At least this time…
I’m assuming that signing Damon for however little it might take would still require that it be guaranteed. Since our 40 Man is at 40, who gets traded for a minor leaguer, which two M’s get traded for one, or who gets designated for assignment? Or do we offer Rule 5 Texiera back to the Yankees already? Do we DFA the recently aquired Tubby Everidge? Langerhans? I guess this holds true if we sign any of the usual suspects out there for starting pitchers too. Or would Damon sign a wink-wink minor league deal with an invite to spring training?
I say the remaining roster moves should be to sign Damon and Washburn to incentive-laden deals in the $5 million range with options for 2011, then try to pick up Felipe Lopez as the utility bench player. Felipe made just $3.5 million last year, his market value has dried up, and CHONE projects him to be 1.9 WAR for next season. Felipe has experience at 3rd, 2nd, Short, and played 17 gamed in the OF in 2008.
If those moves are possible, it should result in a solid 91 or 92 win team with big upside players in Ichiro, Guti, Figgins, Damon, Felix, Lee, and maybe RRS. That would be a very good team and there still could be some payroll flexibility made available at the trade deadline.
Dave’s mentioned Gaby Hernandez before for that honor. I think Texeira’s also headed back to the Yankees eventually since we acquired League.
I’d be okay with that too. I’d just like to get guys in here that make you feel confident when they come to the plate. There wasn’t a ton of that last year. Add some ‘it’ offensive players to this defense and pitching and this team will be scary good.
Dang! Ah well, I wouldn’t write it off as an impossibility with Jack Z pulling the strings. The guy has been flat-out amazing. We’ll see.
Yeah, joser, like I said I wasn’t advocating it. Just curious. I know that Tui starting last year on the roster was pretty much throwing him a bone, but they seemed to like his play when they brought him back up in September.
I also would not expect them to break him into the OF at the big league level, and I know he hasn’t played there in the minors – I wasn’t sure what they had him doing in winter ball right now.
But the other possibility I didn’t mention is that they don’t necessarily need Tui to play the OF… they could always run Figgins out to LF and stick Tui at third against a left handed pitcher (with Bradley at DH.) Not likely that they would move an everyday player back and forth like that, but I’m just bored at work right now…
And I should mention that all my thoughts about Tui on the roster are mostly just stemming from the fact that if they sign a OF-only guy, that leaves Hannahan as our only backup INF. Of course, I’m sure Zduriencik is miles ahead of me on sorting that all out…
I like the Damon idea… like Dave mentioned Abreu was one of the best deals for any team last year. We already have some of the best deals this off season, why stop now!
It sure would be some nice icing on the cake. There are some real potential benefits to getting Damon…
*Leaves the door open for some one to outplay Langerhans and break camp on the 25 man roster
*Saunders has more development time in AAA.
*Jack could still make a trade for a right handed Luke Scott type guy that can play 1st and OF and get 200-400 AB’s.
*Not using any trade chips to get a cheap LF in Damon leaves us with pieces to still get a SP (AKA still try to deal Lopez for Liriano).
Langerhans’s spot would not, or should not, be affected by any hypothetical Damon signing. The M’s would still need a 4th OF who could play all three OF postions. Bradley, the team’s starting DH, can play the corner spots, but he can’t function as 4th OF if he is in the lineup as a DH. Griffey isn’t playing the field, and Damon really shouldn’t play CF anymore.
I always thought that the Yankees were just waiting for his price to drop ever further.. but with the Randy Winn signing, they were dead serious about their budget. So Damon is truly available for any team interested, not sure if he’s what Z has been looking for at LF, but still an interesting option, Regards…
If there was any chance Damon was going back to NY, it’s gone now. Him and Boras can fully move on from that idea… Here’s hoping Jack Z. swoops in.
I am surprised somebody gave Winn a major league deal, even more so that it was almost $2M. If we can get damon for 4-5M, it’s definitely worth the roster shuffling. Then, once Griffey or Bradley ends up on the DL, we can recall Langerhans.
Damon and Bradley would play LF and DH (switching off based on the park). Griffey would DH on the days either one of them take a day off. Sounds good to me. Go get him.
I agree the spot is needed, but Langerhans the player might not be the guy to fill that spot. The point I was trying to make is that if another guy on a Minor League deal outplays him then it is an easier decision to make to try and store Langerhans down in AAA, although he did sign a Major League contract, his cost does not prohibit us from cutting him as much as it would an older more expensive guy filling the same role.
@Leroy. Glad you took it the way I meant it. You always add a little spice to the meal. You wouldn’t be the Leroy from the “gentleman’s” clothing shop by the same name on Pike and 2nd, would you?
I’m a little surprised by the Randy Winn move, to be honest, but maybe the Yankees really did reach their budget ceiling after all?
Maybe Tui would start the year in Tacoma, playing outfield primarily, and then he’d be slated to be a IF/OF RH utility player giving lots of flexibility in the future (he has played mostly second and third, but originally he came up at SS and I assume he’s not a good enough fielder to play there much of the time, but maybe in an emergency).
Think of the speed/OBP if the top 3 was Ichiro-Figgins-Damon. Then if you have Bradley in the #4 spot, you have GREAT OBP 1-4.
If Lopez is still on this team, he could hit 5th where his poor OBP is somewhat lessened. I am still in the trade Lopez camp but I do think having a great 1-4 in terms of OBP would mitigate his flaws a bit.
Damon-Bradley-Lopez-Gutierrez as a 3-6 would not be bad at all. For all the traditional we need power people, all 4 of these players are capable of 20-25 HR seasons.
But more importantly, I love how Jack Z is building a team with high OBP players who are multi-dimensional.
I am worried that the A’s are going to swoop in and get Damon.
Would Damon be a Type-A free-agent after the upcoming season? That could be another buying point for us. He has a great year, gets Type-A, we offer arb, but he declines to hit market and get a big payday. Just an idea.
This situation nicely illustrates the difficulties of roster construction. Jack Z saw the chance to pick up Kotchman and jumped on it, giving up Bill Hall in the process. Now we are looking at the possibility of adding Damon on the cheap– a very enticing possibility– but that move doesn’t work nearly so well now that Hall is gone. If Jack hadn’t made the Kotchman/Hall trade, he probably could have signed Damon and Branyan (or maybe Delgado) and had Hannahan and Hall as roving back ups with Langerhans hanging around in AAA and Griffey reminding Bradley to count to 10 and think happy thoughts. I’m by no means convinced that the scenario I described is better than what we will have when the season starts, but it is a workable bench set-up and I sure do like the idea of Bradley book-ended by Damon and whichever slugging first basemen is less gimpy. Strictly hypothetical at this point, though. Roster construction: it’s a dilly of a pickle.
Joel Sherman update: Winn signs with NYY for $2 million, pending a physical. That pretty much means Damon won’t be going back to NY.
Damon as DH?, okay.
Damon as LF?, no thanks.
Damon as part-time DH, part-time LF? still worth it by far
Mariners have been very silent recently.
It seems M’s can’t afford to sign Damon.
Maybe M’s are done.
Kirby Arnold of Everett Herald says this could be the team we see opening day.
@kg
Don’t tempt the Legend of the Z.
On the contrary kg…I think the fact that the M’s have been so silent lately means they aren’t done and are just waiting for the FA crumbs to fall where they will. No sense moving too soon on Damon, it seems the market for him is eroding with each passing day.
I think their strategy at this point is to wait until the markets for both a risky/high upside starter AND a bat dry up enough to make them both affordable. You’re not going to lose sleep over missing out on either one, but if you get them on the cheap it really helps the team’s chances. The longer they wait, the cheaper these players become. It’s like a 2 for 1 special on winter clothes in April.
I seriously doubt that.
Bingo.
@Briggstar: No, different Leroy. It’s shorts and flip-flops for me; I live in San Diego.
I’m not sure why anyone is concerned about positional flexibility for outfielders if we signed Damon. The most likely scenario if Damon is signed is that Saunders starts in Tacoma, but if Langerhans is bounced, we still have plenty of outfield flexibility. Ichiro, Guti, Figgins, and, yes, Damon and Griffey have all played centerfield. And for one game at least, which is all you really need since the invention of the airplane, any outfielder can cover any outfield spot regardless of whether they’ve ever played there in the big leagues or not. You simply call up your next best option from the minors, a Saunders or Patterson or whoever, and play the next day. Defensive minded replacement level fourth outfielders equivilant to Langerhans are as obtainable as he was if you get into serious injury problems or defensive liabilities as the season unfolds.
Sure would be nice to have that roster spot the Designated Tickler is taking up right about now, eh?
I don’t think anyone is. And, you’re right, they shouldn’t be. The problem (if Damon signs) is in the infield. Hannahan becomes your only backup infielder. What if he goes down or is out of the game? Figgins and Lopez could cover short if they needed to, but who’d play 3B? Probably Adam Moore or Rob Johnson and they have no experience there. It’d be nice to have one more guy with experience in the infield.
Mid80s … true. But I wouldn’t want Bradley on this team without grandpa around to jolly him out of his funks. And I’d rather have Bradley than Silva, so …
That train has sailed.
It would be nice to be able to hit for Wilson (or the catcher) in the late innings if you’re behind. There are two problems with that if you sign Damon: (1) Hannahan is the only backup infielder, which isn’t a huge deal unless one of the other infielders is hurt and he’s already in the game, and (2) if everyone on your bench is left-handed, the pinch-hitter will face a LOOGY. I don’t think you want Griffey facing a tough LOOGY with the game on the line.
There needs to be a RH on the bench. Maybe we could go back in time 5 years and bring back Mike Sweeney. Or 9 years ago and bring back Mark McLemore (perfect!).
Well, I’m happy for Randy Winn. He was always underrated (I remember arguing with Giants fans who thought he was “worthless” when he first went there) and now he gets to play out the tail of his career on the big stage.
Looking at the Damon-Abreu analogy, it’s worth nothing that the latter didn’t sign with the Angels until Feb 11 last year. That was especially late, but that seems to be the new reality for these kinds of players, so this could drag on for a while.
I wonder if the recent “silence” down around Edgar Martinez Way (remember when the M’s would essentially pass the whole offseason without doing anything worthy of much attention?) just means a trade is brewing. As Posnanski points out in one of his typically great columns about the Ankiel signing, the Royals now have approximately eighty-seven outfielders looking for a place to play. I don’t know that we can keep looking to Kansas City for spare parts, but spare parts seem to be what that Dayton Moore specializes in. I wonder if Alberto Callaspo could be had reasonably cheaply as a Bill Hall replacement? He’s primarily a 2B but he has played a bunch of IF positions and a little bit of OF, and he’s a switch hitter (though better as a RH). On days when you want more RH bats in the lineup you could play him at 2B and move Lopez to 1B, or even stick him in left if he can actually handle it (especially in parks that aren’t as daunting for LF as Safeco). Of course, that same thinking could be applied to bunch of similar players kicking around the lower echelons of the majors — I mostly just wanted to link to that Posnanski piece. (There certainly seems to be a correlation between bad teams and good writing.)
(Interestingly, if Callaspo were to join the M’s, he would be reuniting with Kotchman as former top-shelf Angels prospects that formed part of what Dave in 2004 called “a storm of young talent not seen at one time in a generation” … which certainly illustrates something about “can’t miss” prospects).
Yes, the Griffey train has sailed, but the difficulties the team has been having in building up its bench demonstrate the point made before and at the time of the signing that it created more issues than opportunities.
Joser,
You have to give Dave credit – he was sure right about Bobby Crosby.
Leroy, i don’t think we even need to get a utility outfielder. We have Langerhans,and saunders. We don’t need to spend 5 million on a guy like Damon. Save it and get some pitching and sign Hudson for when we trade Lopez for Liriano.
It sounds like a guy mentioned quite a bit as a fit for the M’s can be scratched off..
On mlbtraderumors.com:
-Adam Rubin of The New York Daily News says a deal should be wrapped up “shortly.”
&
-The Mets are deep into negotiations with Fernando Tatis, reports Mike Puma of The New York Post. A deal could be reached within a matter of days.
hey, someones gotta tickle, eat cheetos, and kick back in a sofa.
I would rather have Jonny Gomes. But, I would be happy with Damon. I am not convinced with our current DH/LF situation right now. I would like to see us bring in a full time LF and make Milton our full time DH.
Having Griffey kinda sucks now though. Who know though, maybe having a designated tickler really adds a couple wins?? haha
Saunders will be in Tacoma or starting in LF. There is no in between for him. He’s a legitimate prospect and you want him playing everyday.
I am for almost any situation that has Bradley as the almost full-time DH. He is fragile mentally and physically, but can be a major contributor if things go right. I think having him in the dugout with the coaches or watching film as much as possible is the best scenario.
So if that means we have Saunders out there (although I think he could use at least another half-year in AAA) or Damon, I am in favor of it.
I think the biggest hole is SP#3 and not the offense. I am all in favor for Damon at 5 mil or so, but I am praying Z has a real #3 SP on the way for us…and soon.
Damon would be a nice pickup but he will not hit close to 24 HR’s in Seattle. I figure he’ll be closer to 15. As a result, I don’t think he’ll be worth any more than $4-$5 million. You’d be paying market value. This is no great steal as he doesn’t really offer you a lot of what you don’t already have. There isn’t much left at this point so it doesn’t matter too much I guess.
I do find it funny however that it is so popular on this site to act as if Griffey has diminished skills, is old, is a waste of a roster spot, and can only “tickle” when he drew plenty of walks and hit plenty of homeruns with limited at bats on a bum wheel. And at the same time Johnny Damon would be the best thing ever while he too has diminished skills, is old, is a total liability defensively, etc. Whatever! Go ahead and rip me now, I’ll for sure come back to the site and say “I told you so” when Griffey contributes and outplays his current contract. The guys is first ballet hall of famer, he didn’t forget how to play. You honestly think that JackZ did this for the nostalgia only? Z thinks he can play and contribute. They would sell tickets with or without Griffey on this team. I love all the stats and the WAR this and that but you’ll miss the boat if this is all you consider. I hope Griffey gets at least 300 AB’s.
I went to Baseball Reference to see how Milton had performed at DH and clearly he had his best season in Texas in 2008. I learned two other things: his most similar player, by pretty much any measure, is surprisingly Ivan Calderon. And his page is sponsored by someone who had this to say:
Shouldn’t that be “+ least awful catcher”?
Man, this teams looks like a group that could put up a dozen or more hits and walks, and perhaps not score more than 3 or 4 runs.
But they certainly would see a TON of pitches. I’d trade my own mother for a power-hitting catcher in this line up.
henryv the site I use to calculate runs a game says 5 per with that line up if kotchman wilson and bradley just put up career avg stats. In short that line up doesn’t suck.
5 runs per game huh? You may want to get a new program… The problem of the current lineup, if everyone hits as predicted including decrease in production from age, is that no one in the lineup is scary to an opposing pitcher. True, everyone has a pretty good OBP, no doubt in that. But just because someone has a high OBP doesnt mean that they can consistently drive in runs. An RBI guy, or power hitter, is not the same as a high OBP guy. They both have vital, but different, roles. You wouldn’t put Ichiro at 4, just like you wouldn’t put Alex Rodriguez leadoff. Milton Bradely is ok, but not enough. Besides, who knows if he can stay focused a whole season.
The M’s need power and RBI ability in the lineup. I hope they go after someone that can swing the stick: like a Willingham, Mike Jacobs, Branyan, Delgado, type player. After all, people want to see the big fly! I know and respect the game of pitching and defense, but you need someone to bring in the fans. My favorite part of last season had to have been watching Branyan in Spring Training and the regular season hitting absolute MOON SHOTS!
Not this again.
Also we need to bring back David Bell to provide defense at third and clubhouse leadership.
@SlowRoast:
Here bud, have a read. And another. And finally, one more. There ya go. Now you’re up to speed, pal.
@ MJ Slider:
I don’t even know if your comments should merit a response, but here’s one anyways.
Differences between Damon and Griffey:
a) Damon can still run, Griffey can’t.
b) Damon, while not DTFT, isn’t a crater in the OF, and Griffey most certainly is.
c) Damon is 36, Griffey is 40.
d) And finally, this.
Anyone else can feel free to add to this list. Put simply, all Griffey is good for, in a practical sense, is some walks and some HRs. He can’t be guaranteed to play an entire season, he has a fairly lengthy injury history, and he occupies a roster spot that could very easily be filled by a better player for the same or less money.
I do find it funny however that it is so popular on this site to act as if Griffey has diminished skills, is old, is a waste of a roster spot, and can only “tickle†when he drew plenty of walks and hit plenty of homeruns with limited at bats on a bum wheel.
He also made many, many outs, and didn’t play well as a DH- the Mariners were 11th out of 14 combined OBP and SLG from their DHs.
The guys is first ballet hall of famer, he didn’t forget how to play.
So’s Hank Aaron. Why don’t we sign him, since you seem to think Griffey’s age and recent performance is irrelevant to how you should expect him to perform?
You honestly think that JackZ did this for the nostalgia only?
Honestly? I think the General Manager of the Seattle Mariners realizes that a 25th roster spot isn’t a big deal in the scheme of things, likes Griffey’s attitude in the clubhouse, and will let a first ballot HOF’er who spent a lot of time in Seattle get that 25th roster spot, even if he’s spent most of the last decade playing at replacement level.
I don’t think there’s any reason to wishfully think the 1999 or even the 2005 versions of Griffey will show up. The “oh, he’ll be better once he recovers from (insert name of injury)” is something I’ve been hearing the last decade. At some point, you look at the record and make your judgment on that.
*insert ASCII head in hands guy here*
Sisyphus, meet rock.
And SlowRoast, if I could suggest just one stat, it would be RC/27. That concept pretty much negates all your points.
I don’t think any of these guys will, though.
Wilson and Bradley are NL guys, and they come from more hitting-friendly parks.
This team isn’t going to struggle as bad as is predicted by the people that think you can’t win without an “run producer/big bat/HR hitter/Whatever BS you can fit in the Seattle Times”.
In fact, my comment wasn’t so much about how many runs they would score, but rather just how many baserunners they would likely have, as well as home many pitches they were likely to see.
I know I am a little late to this party; but what about Pat Burrell? Damon would be a fine addition, but he is LH. Considering the M’s need for some RH pop, Burrell could be a decent fit. Yes, Safeco would have a negative effect on his production. Yes, he is poor defensively. Yes, he costs more than he should. There are several drawbacks to him. If there weren’t he would not be available. But, perhaps the Rays’ desire to move him and his $9M salary would be enough for them to include someone like Brignac? Lopez to the Rays would allow them to move Zobrist into RF…
You may have taken my comments the wrong way. I was not trying to say that high on base percentage is not a good precursor to scoring runs, because it is. But you also have to figure into the equation that most of these players came from lineups where they were hitting in front of someone that is a really good, hurt you with one swing not slap you to death, hitter. Figgins had Guerrero, Abreu, Anderson, and Hunter, to name a few, hitting after him, so he got good pitches to hit. Don’t get me wrong, he is a table setter, and a damn good one, that I dont expect his numbers to fall. But Kotchman, Jack Wilson, Adam Moore, Jose Lopez, are not going to intimidate anyone. They will only produce if Griffey, Milton Bradely, or someone else, come in here and give these players some protection. I have the highest hopes for them to succeed and return to their former form, but this is yet to be seen.
In the end, I think that this lineup, as structured right now, will not produce as much as last years team. Which does not bode well for the offense, or this team, right now. Unless, we improve our pitching staff our upgrade the lineup (First Base Please!) We have too many table setters in the lineup right now, unless Guitierez can build on last year and Kotchman can step up his game and build on his time with the Angeles.
Sometimes, there are no numbers available to show things in baseball because some players do not have track records. But I would point to Matt Holliday and his production in Oakland with no protection, to his production in St. Louis with the host of prolific hitters in their lineup and when he was with Colorado. That will be the cumulative effect on this team unless the aforementioned players step up to the plate and perform.
In the end, I think that this lineup, as structured right now, will not produce as much as last years team
Last year’s team had LF, 3B, SS and C production that were all at the bottom of the league, as well as bad DH production.
Guess what? When 55% of your lineup sucks, you can’t score.
The M’s would have to have everything fall apart to get back to there again…