Reacting To The Market
We’ve talked quite a bit about what type of player who makes sense as the final guy on the position player side of things, given the current roster – a right-handed outfielder who can swing the stick and not embarrass himself in the field would be the perfect complement to the current Bradley/Langerhans/Saunders group of LF options on the roster. There are any number of fairly cheap, useful players of that sort on the market, so the M’s should be able to fill that spot rather easily.
But sometimes, things happen that change your plans. And, given the market that is developing (or not developing, as the case may be) in Johnny Damon’s case, perhaps its time for the Mariners to consider an alternate plan in left field.
Buster Olney reported today that the market for Damon has “dried up”. The Yankees are holding steady on the fact that they only have $2 million left to spend, and they won’t expand their budget to bring him back. There was some talk that the A’s could still pursue Damon even after signing Ben Sheets, but Billy Beane threw water on that idea.
The other teams that had been rumored destinations for Damon either don’t seem interested or have already spent their money on other players. Olney speculates that $4 or $5 million on a one year deal may be the best that Damon could do, and he thought that kind of offer could come from Oakland, who now appears unlikely to pursue him.
There is apparently an opportunity for the Mariners here. As I wrote on FanGraphs today, there are a lot of similarities between Damon this year and Bobby Abreu a year ago. We all saw how the Abreu contract worked out for the Angels, and something like a 1 year, $5 million deal for Damon may be a similarly good idea for the M’s.
Damon is still a good player. He hits for average, draws walks, makes contact, and has some power. Sure, New Yankee Stadium helped him quite a bit last year, but Safeco is designed to help the same type of hitter, and he would find the right field porch in Seattle just as inviting. He’s a good enough defender to handle LF at Safeco, even as his range declines – there’s little evidence that he’s much worse than below average defensively at this point, and that includes his hilariously bad arm. The glove doesn’t even come close to canceling out the value he creates at the plate.
Given regular playing time, Damon should be a +2 to +3 win player, and the Mariners have playing time to offer him. Sure, it’s not ideal to add yet another LH hitter to the LF/DH mix, but Damon doesn’t need to be platooned, so you don’t have to replace Langerhans with a right-handed hitting outfielder in order to make it work (though you could if you wanted to). And you don’t walk away from a bargain just because it’s not ideal. If the M’s can really get Damon for $5M-ish, they won’t find a more cost effective way to upgrade the team in free agency.
I am worried that the A’s are going to swoop in and get Damon.
Would Damon be a Type-A free-agent after the upcoming season? That could be another buying point for us. He has a great year, gets Type-A, we offer arb, but he declines to hit market and get a big payday. Just an idea.
This situation nicely illustrates the difficulties of roster construction. Jack Z saw the chance to pick up Kotchman and jumped on it, giving up Bill Hall in the process. Now we are looking at the possibility of adding Damon on the cheap– a very enticing possibility– but that move doesn’t work nearly so well now that Hall is gone. If Jack hadn’t made the Kotchman/Hall trade, he probably could have signed Damon and Branyan (or maybe Delgado) and had Hannahan and Hall as roving back ups with Langerhans hanging around in AAA and Griffey reminding Bradley to count to 10 and think happy thoughts. I’m by no means convinced that the scenario I described is better than what we will have when the season starts, but it is a workable bench set-up and I sure do like the idea of Bradley book-ended by Damon and whichever slugging first basemen is less gimpy. Strictly hypothetical at this point, though. Roster construction: it’s a dilly of a pickle.
Joel Sherman update: Winn signs with NYY for $2 million, pending a physical. That pretty much means Damon won’t be going back to NY.
Damon as DH?, okay.
Damon as LF?, no thanks.
Damon as part-time DH, part-time LF? still worth it by far
Mariners have been very silent recently.
It seems M’s can’t afford to sign Damon.
Maybe M’s are done.
Kirby Arnold of Everett Herald says this could be the team we see opening day.
@kg
Don’t tempt the Legend of the Z.
On the contrary kg…I think the fact that the M’s have been so silent lately means they aren’t done and are just waiting for the FA crumbs to fall where they will. No sense moving too soon on Damon, it seems the market for him is eroding with each passing day.
I think their strategy at this point is to wait until the markets for both a risky/high upside starter AND a bat dry up enough to make them both affordable. You’re not going to lose sleep over missing out on either one, but if you get them on the cheap it really helps the team’s chances. The longer they wait, the cheaper these players become. It’s like a 2 for 1 special on winter clothes in April.
I seriously doubt that.
Bingo.
@Briggstar: No, different Leroy. It’s shorts and flip-flops for me; I live in San Diego.
I’m not sure why anyone is concerned about positional flexibility for outfielders if we signed Damon. The most likely scenario if Damon is signed is that Saunders starts in Tacoma, but if Langerhans is bounced, we still have plenty of outfield flexibility. Ichiro, Guti, Figgins, and, yes, Damon and Griffey have all played centerfield. And for one game at least, which is all you really need since the invention of the airplane, any outfielder can cover any outfield spot regardless of whether they’ve ever played there in the big leagues or not. You simply call up your next best option from the minors, a Saunders or Patterson or whoever, and play the next day. Defensive minded replacement level fourth outfielders equivilant to Langerhans are as obtainable as he was if you get into serious injury problems or defensive liabilities as the season unfolds.
Sure would be nice to have that roster spot the Designated Tickler is taking up right about now, eh? 🙂
I don’t think anyone is. And, you’re right, they shouldn’t be. The problem (if Damon signs) is in the infield. Hannahan becomes your only backup infielder. What if he goes down or is out of the game? Figgins and Lopez could cover short if they needed to, but who’d play 3B? Probably Adam Moore or Rob Johnson and they have no experience there. It’d be nice to have one more guy with experience in the infield.
Mid80s … true. But I wouldn’t want Bradley on this team without grandpa around to jolly him out of his funks. And I’d rather have Bradley than Silva, so …
That train has sailed.
It would be nice to be able to hit for Wilson (or the catcher) in the late innings if you’re behind. There are two problems with that if you sign Damon: (1) Hannahan is the only backup infielder, which isn’t a huge deal unless one of the other infielders is hurt and he’s already in the game, and (2) if everyone on your bench is left-handed, the pinch-hitter will face a LOOGY. I don’t think you want Griffey facing a tough LOOGY with the game on the line.
There needs to be a RH on the bench. Maybe we could go back in time 5 years and bring back Mike Sweeney. Or 9 years ago and bring back Mark McLemore (perfect!).
Well, I’m happy for Randy Winn. He was always underrated (I remember arguing with Giants fans who thought he was “worthless” when he first went there) and now he gets to play out the tail of his career on the big stage.
Looking at the Damon-Abreu analogy, it’s worth nothing that the latter didn’t sign with the Angels until Feb 11 last year. That was especially late, but that seems to be the new reality for these kinds of players, so this could drag on for a while.
I wonder if the recent “silence” down around Edgar Martinez Way (remember when the M’s would essentially pass the whole offseason without doing anything worthy of much attention?) just means a trade is brewing. As Posnanski points out in one of his typically great columns about the Ankiel signing, the Royals now have approximately eighty-seven outfielders looking for a place to play. I don’t know that we can keep looking to Kansas City for spare parts, but spare parts seem to be what that Dayton Moore specializes in. I wonder if Alberto Callaspo could be had reasonably cheaply as a Bill Hall replacement? He’s primarily a 2B but he has played a bunch of IF positions and a little bit of OF, and he’s a switch hitter (though better as a RH). On days when you want more RH bats in the lineup you could play him at 2B and move Lopez to 1B, or even stick him in left if he can actually handle it (especially in parks that aren’t as daunting for LF as Safeco). Of course, that same thinking could be applied to bunch of similar players kicking around the lower echelons of the majors — I mostly just wanted to link to that Posnanski piece. (There certainly seems to be a correlation between bad teams and good writing.)
(Interestingly, if Callaspo were to join the M’s, he would be reuniting with Kotchman as former top-shelf Angels prospects that formed part of what Dave in 2004 called “a storm of young talent not seen at one time in a generation” … which certainly illustrates something about “can’t miss” prospects).
Yes, the Griffey train has sailed, but the difficulties the team has been having in building up its bench demonstrate the point made before and at the time of the signing that it created more issues than opportunities.
Joser,
You have to give Dave credit – he was sure right about Bobby Crosby.
Leroy, i don’t think we even need to get a utility outfielder. We have Langerhans,and saunders. We don’t need to spend 5 million on a guy like Damon. Save it and get some pitching and sign Hudson for when we trade Lopez for Liriano.
It sounds like a guy mentioned quite a bit as a fit for the M’s can be scratched off..
On mlbtraderumors.com:
-Adam Rubin of The New York Daily News says a deal should be wrapped up “shortly.”
&
-The Mets are deep into negotiations with Fernando Tatis, reports Mike Puma of The New York Post. A deal could be reached within a matter of days.
hey, someones gotta tickle, eat cheetos, and kick back in a sofa.
I would rather have Jonny Gomes. But, I would be happy with Damon. I am not convinced with our current DH/LF situation right now. I would like to see us bring in a full time LF and make Milton our full time DH.
Having Griffey kinda sucks now though. Who know though, maybe having a designated tickler really adds a couple wins?? haha
Saunders will be in Tacoma or starting in LF. There is no in between for him. He’s a legitimate prospect and you want him playing everyday.
I am for almost any situation that has Bradley as the almost full-time DH. He is fragile mentally and physically, but can be a major contributor if things go right. I think having him in the dugout with the coaches or watching film as much as possible is the best scenario.
So if that means we have Saunders out there (although I think he could use at least another half-year in AAA) or Damon, I am in favor of it.
I think the biggest hole is SP#3 and not the offense. I am all in favor for Damon at 5 mil or so, but I am praying Z has a real #3 SP on the way for us…and soon.
Damon would be a nice pickup but he will not hit close to 24 HR’s in Seattle. I figure he’ll be closer to 15. As a result, I don’t think he’ll be worth any more than $4-$5 million. You’d be paying market value. This is no great steal as he doesn’t really offer you a lot of what you don’t already have. There isn’t much left at this point so it doesn’t matter too much I guess.
I do find it funny however that it is so popular on this site to act as if Griffey has diminished skills, is old, is a waste of a roster spot, and can only “tickle” when he drew plenty of walks and hit plenty of homeruns with limited at bats on a bum wheel. And at the same time Johnny Damon would be the best thing ever while he too has diminished skills, is old, is a total liability defensively, etc. Whatever! Go ahead and rip me now, I’ll for sure come back to the site and say “I told you so” when Griffey contributes and outplays his current contract. The guys is first ballet hall of famer, he didn’t forget how to play. You honestly think that JackZ did this for the nostalgia only? Z thinks he can play and contribute. They would sell tickets with or without Griffey on this team. I love all the stats and the WAR this and that but you’ll miss the boat if this is all you consider. I hope Griffey gets at least 300 AB’s.
I went to Baseball Reference to see how Milton had performed at DH and clearly he had his best season in Texas in 2008. I learned two other things: his most similar player, by pretty much any measure, is surprisingly Ivan Calderon. And his page is sponsored by someone who had this to say:
Shouldn’t that be “+ least awful catcher”?
Man, this teams looks like a group that could put up a dozen or more hits and walks, and perhaps not score more than 3 or 4 runs.
But they certainly would see a TON of pitches. I’d trade my own mother for a power-hitting catcher in this line up.
henryv the site I use to calculate runs a game says 5 per with that line up if kotchman wilson and bradley just put up career avg stats. In short that line up doesn’t suck.
5 runs per game huh? You may want to get a new program… The problem of the current lineup, if everyone hits as predicted including decrease in production from age, is that no one in the lineup is scary to an opposing pitcher. True, everyone has a pretty good OBP, no doubt in that. But just because someone has a high OBP doesnt mean that they can consistently drive in runs. An RBI guy, or power hitter, is not the same as a high OBP guy. They both have vital, but different, roles. You wouldn’t put Ichiro at 4, just like you wouldn’t put Alex Rodriguez leadoff. Milton Bradely is ok, but not enough. Besides, who knows if he can stay focused a whole season.
The M’s need power and RBI ability in the lineup. I hope they go after someone that can swing the stick: like a Willingham, Mike Jacobs, Branyan, Delgado, type player. After all, people want to see the big fly! I know and respect the game of pitching and defense, but you need someone to bring in the fans. My favorite part of last season had to have been watching Branyan in Spring Training and the regular season hitting absolute MOON SHOTS!
Not this again.
Also we need to bring back David Bell to provide defense at third and clubhouse leadership.
@SlowRoast:
Here bud, have a read. And another. And finally, one more. There ya go. Now you’re up to speed, pal. 😉
@ MJ Slider:
I don’t even know if your comments should merit a response, but here’s one anyways.
Differences between Damon and Griffey:
a) Damon can still run, Griffey can’t.
b) Damon, while not DTFT, isn’t a crater in the OF, and Griffey most certainly is.
c) Damon is 36, Griffey is 40.
d) And finally, this.
Anyone else can feel free to add to this list. Put simply, all Griffey is good for, in a practical sense, is some walks and some HRs. He can’t be guaranteed to play an entire season, he has a fairly lengthy injury history, and he occupies a roster spot that could very easily be filled by a better player for the same or less money.
I do find it funny however that it is so popular on this site to act as if Griffey has diminished skills, is old, is a waste of a roster spot, and can only “tickle†when he drew plenty of walks and hit plenty of homeruns with limited at bats on a bum wheel.
He also made many, many outs, and didn’t play well as a DH- the Mariners were 11th out of 14 combined OBP and SLG from their DHs.
The guys is first ballet hall of famer, he didn’t forget how to play.
So’s Hank Aaron. Why don’t we sign him, since you seem to think Griffey’s age and recent performance is irrelevant to how you should expect him to perform?
You honestly think that JackZ did this for the nostalgia only?
Honestly? I think the General Manager of the Seattle Mariners realizes that a 25th roster spot isn’t a big deal in the scheme of things, likes Griffey’s attitude in the clubhouse, and will let a first ballot HOF’er who spent a lot of time in Seattle get that 25th roster spot, even if he’s spent most of the last decade playing at replacement level.
I don’t think there’s any reason to wishfully think the 1999 or even the 2005 versions of Griffey will show up. The “oh, he’ll be better once he recovers from (insert name of injury)” is something I’ve been hearing the last decade. At some point, you look at the record and make your judgment on that.
*insert ASCII head in hands guy here*
Sisyphus, meet rock.
And SlowRoast, if I could suggest just one stat, it would be RC/27. That concept pretty much negates all your points.
I don’t think any of these guys will, though.
Wilson and Bradley are NL guys, and they come from more hitting-friendly parks.
This team isn’t going to struggle as bad as is predicted by the people that think you can’t win without an “run producer/big bat/HR hitter/Whatever BS you can fit in the Seattle Times”.
In fact, my comment wasn’t so much about how many runs they would score, but rather just how many baserunners they would likely have, as well as home many pitches they were likely to see.
I know I am a little late to this party; but what about Pat Burrell? Damon would be a fine addition, but he is LH. Considering the M’s need for some RH pop, Burrell could be a decent fit. Yes, Safeco would have a negative effect on his production. Yes, he is poor defensively. Yes, he costs more than he should. There are several drawbacks to him. If there weren’t he would not be available. But, perhaps the Rays’ desire to move him and his $9M salary would be enough for them to include someone like Brignac? Lopez to the Rays would allow them to move Zobrist into RF…
You may have taken my comments the wrong way. I was not trying to say that high on base percentage is not a good precursor to scoring runs, because it is. But you also have to figure into the equation that most of these players came from lineups where they were hitting in front of someone that is a really good, hurt you with one swing not slap you to death, hitter. Figgins had Guerrero, Abreu, Anderson, and Hunter, to name a few, hitting after him, so he got good pitches to hit. Don’t get me wrong, he is a table setter, and a damn good one, that I dont expect his numbers to fall. But Kotchman, Jack Wilson, Adam Moore, Jose Lopez, are not going to intimidate anyone. They will only produce if Griffey, Milton Bradely, or someone else, come in here and give these players some protection. I have the highest hopes for them to succeed and return to their former form, but this is yet to be seen.
In the end, I think that this lineup, as structured right now, will not produce as much as last years team. Which does not bode well for the offense, or this team, right now. Unless, we improve our pitching staff our upgrade the lineup (First Base Please!) We have too many table setters in the lineup right now, unless Guitierez can build on last year and Kotchman can step up his game and build on his time with the Angeles.
Sometimes, there are no numbers available to show things in baseball because some players do not have track records. But I would point to Matt Holliday and his production in Oakland with no protection, to his production in St. Louis with the host of prolific hitters in their lineup and when he was with Colorado. That will be the cumulative effect on this team unless the aforementioned players step up to the plate and perform.
In the end, I think that this lineup, as structured right now, will not produce as much as last years team
Last year’s team had LF, 3B, SS and C production that were all at the bottom of the league, as well as bad DH production.
Guess what? When 55% of your lineup sucks, you can’t score.
The M’s would have to have everything fall apart to get back to there again…