Jim Street, Erik Bedard, And Rumors
Jim Street has had an interesting week. Yesterday, he took to his mailbag to whine about the inaccuracies of bloggers and twitter, specifically using the talk about Jose Lopez being trade bait as a platform for him to virtually yell at us to get off his lawn. Perhaps he didn’t notice that 99.9% of all baseball news is now first reported on twitter, or that just a few days ago, a bunch of blogging twitterers had to correct an inaccurate report from a “mainstream” television station up in Minnesota.
And, apparently, the humor is lost on him that he’s now using his blog to report that the M’s are nearing a deal with Erik Bedard. He puts the terms at $1.5M guaranteed with “a shipload of incentives”. He’s the only one reporting this, though, and after all, it’s on a blog, so we probably shouldn’t believe it, right?
We’ll analyze it further when a more reputable reporter confirms the deal. If it doesn’t happen, well, just chalk it up as more evidence of those bloggers who don’t care about accuracy running amok.
Update: Erik Bedard tells Larry LaRue that no one has made a concrete offer. That’s a pretty far cry from there being an agreement on terms. For now, there’s no reason to believe Street’s original report has any legs.
Comments
122 Responses to “Jim Street, Erik Bedard, And Rumors”
A shipload huh?
Personally, I like living in Blogo-land.
Shouldn’t it be “those twittering bloggers”? Sounds like something my grandfather would say.
Boosh! Well Said.
There’s also this, courtesy of Janic over at Lookout Landing:
Didn’t he also break the news of Kotchman avoiding arbitration… on Twitter?
It would please me greatly if this were true.
And I would’ve gotten away with it too, if it wasn’t for your meddling twittlebloggers!!!
Yikes.
I’m one of the crazies that likes the idea of re-signing Bedard, but this would truly be funny if Street turns out to be wrong and he signs with KC.
There’s nothing crazy about liking a Bedard re-signing.
Felix, Lee, and a health Bedard would be amazing come the playoffs…
That seems fitting. It would also be appropriate that he break the Bedard signing (if true).
Beat reporter Jim Street answers Mariners fans’ questions – 01/25/10
Just wait for this one:
Mets sign Bedard, declare him opening day starter
A few things come to mind:
1) This front office doesn’t release information about signings unless they’re done. I don’t know who is revealing this information, but it’s probably not coming from the M’s front office.
2) Bedard would be a nice addition to the team, given the low price he will probably get.
3) Talk about the pot and the kettle.
I love how Street thinks Bedard will be turning 29 in March. Coming from a guy who rails on all of the blogosphere’s inaccuracies, it’s almost poetic.
Remember when we had Corey Brock for a couple years? That was sweet.
Ummmm, doesn’t Jim Street work for Pravda? Or MLB.com anyway? Sooooo, why should we believe anything he says that isn’t obvious propaganda? And with that said, what does this mean in light of the Mariners-approved story on cutting loose Russell Branyan? Is this the equivalent of the junior high school procedure of telling someone “I think such-and-such LIKES you!” Are the M’s courting Bedard through the press? (Remember, we didn’t part on the best of terms but at the right price he DOES make sense.)
“This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.”
Accuracy is running amok? Holy smokes, no wonder the news media is all screwed up these days.
“This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.”
As a career government reporter, I think that statement and three bucks will get you a latte. Jim Street doesn’t upset the apple cart.
I don’t care about Street one way or another. I just hope his Bedard story is right.
I like to read it at the end of one of his pieces and interpret it as saying “The F.O. didn’t care to chat with Jim about their thoughts for this story”
He says he is going to get a ship load of money…How big is this ship he is talking about? As I recall ships are pretty big.
A shipload of incentives… not a shipload of money. Those are very different things, my friend.
(Side note: digging the “ship” pun for the Mariners)
Bedard was crazy back when we were shopping for a number 2 starter and people were thinking he was in the 5-10 mil/yr range. It’s possible there’s some holdover hostility from that.
Bringing him in as a 3rd or 4th starter at 1.5+ is pretty sweet. Even if it is a mid-summer return date.
I hope his reports are true as well. It is funny however that these so called “journalists” have such a huge problem with blogs such as this one. Face it, they’re just pissed because bloggers figured out a way to avoid all the stupid corporate “kiss ass” bureaucracy that they all had to endure!
I love the idea of bringing back Bedard. I think he is the type of pitcher that doesn’t like the spot light and would thrive as a number 3. The only thing that I would question is how this would affect the rotation. I think you might need to go 1. Lee 2. Felix 3. Bedard 4. RRS 5. Snell. But then again, this isn’t a lineup and going from nasty lefty (Lee) to even nastier lefty (Bedard’s curve ball) would probably work as well.
Street is a clown for his posts on the Mariner’s website. He is neither accurate nor mindful of his remarks, but I damn well hope that he is right! The only rumor that I have heard is Bedard signing possibly with Kansas City.
Touche thehemogoblin, touche
I’d certainly take Bedard for a deal that’s $1.5 mil, and incentives top out at $5 mil.
But I think he’s pulling it out of his ass. For one thing, Bedard isn’t in line for the standard incentives. He won’t pick up a bunch of wins. No all-star appearance. They could tie it to ERA, or playoff wins…but those aren’t a standard incentive.
I don’t understand. Why wouldn’t they just use standard playing time incentives? 15 games started, 20, or $100k/start made, bonuses at 100, 150, 200 IP as well. Even if you only expect a partial season you can structure it that way.
I guess that would work, but I don’t recall it being structured around a half season like he will have.
Where did you get standard incentives? The linked entry says a shipload of incentives.
Err, I don’t recall many contracts structured that way rather.
Also, that sort of thing could easily go awry with the union if things didn’t go right.
I didn’t get “standard” from the article. I was responding to your comment, and responding by suggesting that you could accomplish what the M’s would want via frequently used contract incentive means.
As for you not recalling contracts structured that way — they do. There are many examples of pitchers angry about not getting those last few starts, especially when it triggers an option year. You can go over to CoT and just browse if you wanted.
There are a vast number of examples of players with playing-time based incentives.
To be honest, I know you’re right. The contract just doesn’t feel right to me.
It just feels like there has to be a team out there willing to put down $3m on a single year deal, and the incentive structure that would work to pull him in for less than that would have to be pretty constant and generous.
Jim Who?
The bloggers also figured out a way to avoid being paid for all the good work they do. Enduring that corporate paycheck is awful until it’s time to buy groceries.
Yeah, well, we’ve been under a pile of ship for quite a while, holding our breath and digging.
Sorry joser,
I have friends who work that grind…..Im willing to bet the owner of a popular blog site can make more in ad revenue….
[no]
I believe that we have so many high-risk, high-reward players already on the roster that we should instead go after a steady starter to eat up some innings and not play too horribly. Our defense can make even the worst starter look good, so someone with a left hand and a pulse could be quite useful. *coughjarrodwashburncough*
So yes, I have reconsidered my earlier stated opinion. However, I still stand by the awesomeness of the “shipload” pun. (Copy editors and puns go together like peanut butter and jelly.)
The Voices in my head have told me that the M’s are nearing a deal with the Marlins to send Doug Fister and an autographed Baseball of the 2008 Mariners team to the Marlins for Ricky Nolasco and Prospects Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison.
Who knew Journalism could be so easy?
I bet there are some people here who would be willing to take you up on that bet…
Actually I hope this is true. This’d be a great deal for the M’s even if Bedard isn’t ready for a couple of months. Can you imagine being an opposing team and having to face Felix, Lee, and Bedard in a three-game series?
First off, anything Street writes is just junk. Anyone that visits this site or Lookout Landing, Prospect Insider, etc., knows more about the Mariners than Street does. He’s terrible.
But as for the rumor, it would be a great “deadline” type of deal. He won’t be ready to pitch for some time, so who will be the #3 starter till then? If we are out of it by then, it won’t matter and we will be in sell mode.
The only thing I would worry about in regards to Bedard is not “when” he’ll come back but how good he’ll be when he comes back. A lot of pitchers have down years the first year back from surgery. But at 1.5 mill base salary, the initial risk isn’t very high. We’ll just have to trust the pitching coaches to determine that he’s truly ready before sending him out there to begin racking up his incentive money.
Bedard would be a great pairing with Lee and Felix in a playoff situation. In games 1 & 2, the bullpen likely won’t get used a lot which means they’ll be fresh when Bedard gives his 5 or 6 innings. As long as it’s a good 5 or 6 innings, we shouldn’t have many problems finishing the game off with a fresh bullpen.
Street had me at:
…in lieu of the Heathcliff trade. That’s some real journalism there. I can think of a few trades in M’s history that are far worse than the Bedard deal (as can just about anybody). Do journalists just get paid now to write controversially stupid articles so we can all rubberneck at the disaster and boost hits on their websites?
This isn’t as stupid as Baker’s asinine defense of withholding his vote for Edgar, but SHEESH.
Street says one thing one day, then completely backtracks the next, he has no idea what he’s talking about more times than not, and to see him say yet another dumb thing comes as no shock to me.
Signing Bedard makes a LOT of sense to me, given who is out there still, but it ONLY makes sense if they also sign one more pitcher, (Washburn would do nicely) as a backup plan, and to give us innings until Bedard is ready to pitch.
If the M’s were to sign both Bedard and either Washburn, or someone of that calibre, I would venture to say that the M’s chances of not only competing for the West, but for a Series, would have improved DRAMATICALLY.
In a short series, our pitching staff would have the edge over any other. Scoring three runs would likely be enough to give the M’s the win in most games.
So long as the M’s were still within striking distance when Bedard could start pitching again, I would like our chances. As long as this team is still in the hunt when the trade deadline rolls around, this team has a very legitimate shot at doing something amazing.
Oh – and how is Bedard turning 29 on March 5? Do ages go backwards when you are injured?
Bedard is 30 and will turn 31 on March 5. Just more great writing from Street – too bad it is all these bloggers that don’t care about inaccuracies!
As much as we all probably have some holdover of feelings of resentment towards Bedard and Jarrod Washburn for wasting the Mariners money and fans goodwill in past seasons (I know I sure do), IF we can sign them both for the right prices, they may end up being the perfect pieces to compliment the team already in place. Washburn could be a steady number 3 starter until Bedard is ready to go, and then Washburn slates in quite nicely as a number 4 starter. Plus, I would have to think that a rotation of Felix, Lee, Bedard, Washburn, and RRS late in the season could keep the bullpen fresh and make an 11-man pen feasible.
I got no dog in this hunt, but Jim Street is a longtime and respected baseball writer who works for mlb.com because he has shown chops over a long career. If you asked him about this blog, I bet Street would be respectful of it, as any knowledgable baseball follower would be. If he says there’s a lot of half-baked baseball information flying around on twitter and blogs these days, what part of that isn’t true? And what’s with the thin skins? Bashing Street as Pravda-esque and uninformed is the exact same behavior you’re accusing Street being guilty of toward blogs. This old school, new school thing is tiresome. Get over it.
On the topic of Bedard, let’s hope Street is right. Gotta love that.
You do realize that if every blogger got over it, there would be no blogs left, yes?
You do realize that if every blogger got over it, there would be no blogs left, yes?
I’m talking about the bashing. There’s a role for both old school and new school ways of gathering baseball info. Slamming Street is a waste of time and — maybe this is quaint — not so nice on a human level.
I’ll bet you our GM respects Jim Street, for example. And I’ve detected a lot of love on this site for our GM’s judgement. So if Jack Z. respects Jim Street, is Jack Z. an idiot?
Jim Street “reports” wrong information. I could care less about the blogger vs. beat reporter debate.
He gets facts wrong. Period. Either he is lazy for not checking his information, he doesn’t care to be correct, or he is in fact just stupid. He’s terrible.
I agree that bashing Street just isn’t worth it. I got kinda in to bashing Geoff Baker for a while, but even that ended up leaving a bad taste in my mouth. We should probably all try a little harder to be critical, and express our disagreement, without being jerks.
Jerry Crasnick just posted a little blurb on Branyan…
“Why is Russell Branyan out of work? His early asking price didn’t help. He wanted 3 yrs, $20M plus for a while.”
Russell the Muscle…what have you let your agent do to you?!? Bavasi hasn’t been in the majors in two years buddy; nobody is going to pull the trigger on those numbers.
Sorry, I’m having a little trouble seeing that. There were at least four bits of information in Street’s article. 1) He has a source and tells you who it was — Kirby Arnold; 2) Arnold has talked to someone with first-hand information about Bedard’s rehab, which is apparently going better than reported; 3) the part about Randy Johnson’s old trainer; and 4) the specific figures for the contract.
Why is this junk? Because he got Bedard’s birthday wrong? Anyone with a computer and Internet connection can look that up.
I mean, I work with press releases and other material that ends up in print and routinely correct at least one error in every five to ten pages. Nothing to be especially proud of. It certainly doesn’t mean the rest of the information is junk.
You have some fair points.
But, I’m sorry, that’s a bit silly. If asked, of course he’d say he respects the guy. But, he’d say it because he has to, not because he knows anything about him. I doubt Zduriencik is mashing F5 on Street’s blog all day waiting for his newest musings.
Anyway, Jim Street isn’t a bad guy. I’ve e-mailed him and he seems nice enough. I don’t think Dave is trying to say he’s not a good guy either.
I think the humor in this has been lost on more than just Jim Street.
The humor’s not lost Carson. And the Jack Z./Jim Street thing is pure conjecture on my part, and yeah, maybe silly.
You know I’m starting to think our negative perception of Bedard was directly related to Bavasi’s frustration that he never lived up to his great trade. Tough to blame Bedard too much when he was straight-up injured. Bavasi bad-mouthed Bedard on his way out… professional no? I think a lot of those “leaks” about Bedard’s attitude and performance may have come straight from Mr. Bill “oh nooooo”. Bedard’s lack of media personality sure didn’t help his cause though, and I understand that. I have zero problem giving Bedard another shot, especially at that price (if true). We’ll see if the move is indeed made though.
Come July, I’m smelling a possible Bedard rehap assignment, or two, with the ornery Frogs of Snohomish County.
I’ve never had a negative perception of Bedard. I have a negative perception of what Bavasi gave up to get Bedard. The rest of the script was pretty much predictable from the moment the trade went down.
Leaking negative things about Bedard would do nothing for Bavasi, and while he may have been a poor GM, he is not a stupid man. For me, the knee-jerk fan reaction to Bedard stems from several radio & tv guys who continually hammered him for his personality, and for his supposed weak competitive nature.
I never had the same perceptions of many others but the media (KJR in general) really painted the negative picture. I can’t remember if it’s Mitch or Softy but one of them said that they didn’t want that lazy wuss playing for the M’s ever again. Mostly because of the deal itself. All I’m saying is that Bavasi really spread that image when Bedard wasn’t the immediate #1 he traded for. I know plenty of people that want Bedard as far from this team as possible. Of course these are typically the same people that hate Beltre… I’m mentioning Bavasi’s incredible PR smear campaign.
I know a lot of ink has been spilled talking about the Bedard trade, but I wasn’t following the team too closely then, so forgive this question…
Did all of the other GMs know how dumb Bavasi was? It seems like, even at the time a Jones for Bedard was perhaps an overpay on our part. Maybe a fair-ish trade. Now throw in 4 more prospects. Wow. Were the other teams just waiting to fleece us?
Wouldn’t March-June be the perfect time to let RRS, Snell, Fister, Vargas, etc. rack up valuable innings/experience duking it out for the #3-5 slots? Washburn is a serviceable veteran – but with our defense, who wouldn’t be?
If we get both Bedard and Washburn back, terrific, but it might be a better long term plan to let a couple of these younger arms boost their trade values in case a certain Padre 1st baseman really does become a possibility later (sorry to beat that drum again).
In that vein, Adrian’s agent was quoted yesterday as saying his re-signing with San Diego seemed unlikely. Not earth-shattering news, but something I’m sure the FO is keeping an eye on.
This is great news if true! A very low risk/ high return deal… If Bedard can come back at 80% of last year we would have an INCREDIBLE 1-3!
Bedard wasn’t worth the value given up for him or his salary for the past two years, but that’s water under the bridge now. If this rumor is true then signing him for $1.5M plus incentives seems like a no-brainer to me. At worst he never throws a pitch and the M’s are out $1.5M which won’t hamstring them from making further moves. At best he becomes the nastiest #3 starter in the game. The potential upside is too great not to do this deal, if there’s any truth to it.
Totally agree on the KJR smear campaign. His (Bedard’s) image as a wuss was slammed after every start the last two seasons. When I learned of the injuries he pitched through (and still posted really respectable numbers), I came away with the opposite view of the guy. He’s one tough bastard who has an obligation to himself and his team to protect his money-maker, thus bowing out after 95 pitches so often.
Mike Snow makes a great point on our perception and expectations of him from the get-go, and Lord knows he was aware of the pressures that came with that lopsided trade, especially when Adam Jones and Sherrill immediately blossomed into All-Stars.
The thought of a healthier Bedard easing in mid-summer with no pressure and something to prove as a #3 behind Hernandez and Lee makes me schoolgirl giddy. Any of those three, when pitching well, could be the ace on most staffs in baseball. Sure, there are some big “if’s”, but whoa nelly, look out if we make the playoffs and they are just hitting their stride.
And, what a terrific feel-good story if Bedard can make us all forget the Bavasi debacle that brought him here in the first place.
Yes, much to love about Bedard even given he will never win Mr. Congeniality. Two concerns, obviously health and money. No comment on the health because how would we know? For money, seems he would be in the Brad Penny/Jon Garland/Tim Hudson/Ben Sheets price range adjusted for expected starts, i.e. in the $5-$7.5 range before adjustment. If going the free agent route, I would hope Z and company could fire the mojo wagon one more time bringing Erik in around $3.0-$3.5 with a gift basket. If Street stumbles on right and we get him for $1.5, he wins the whoopie cushion. Next level seems to be Washburn and then Smoltz. Wash makes me nervous but could live with it for $4M. May have to budget extra for a Smoltz’ walker. Dave has this one pegged.
It seems to me that if health issues weren’t a concern for Bedard (which of course they are), that he would have been hands-down the best pitcher available this offseason just based on his stuff and the numbers that he has put up when healthy.
IF this rumor is true, and IF Bedard is healthy mid-season and pitches the way he can, then we will all be able to laugh at the Red Sox and Angels and Rangers and Athletics for the dollars they paid for their free agent SP pick-ups this off-season.
“What? Bedard just pitched a shut out against your stud Lackey? That’s terrible!!”
If the M’s sign Bedard as a #3 and he remains healthy–and they can do it at $1.5–it shows an immense, unmistakable difference between the way the club is managed now compared to how it was managed in Bavasi’s era.
As an aside, it sure feels good to think that we don’t have the worst GM in baseball. Sometimes under Bavasi & Woodward, I grew envious of *choke* Sabean and Dayton Moore…
It’s important to remember just how good Bedard was before we acquired him. If he can avoid descending into an unfortunate Greg Hibbard-style injury disaster, he’ll do good (and possibly great) things in a strong rotation.
thanks Joe Simpson for adding a much needed bit of sobriety to this conversation.
I have to say that from my perspective a healthy Bedard is really exciting, when he is “on” he is every bit as electric as Felix or ANYONE else pitching today. I have been secretly wishing-praying for this since the end of last season. If true this would be the capper to an OMG hotstove season. Its really fun to be a M’s fan right now.
FWIW, Larry Larue called Bedard, and says ‘no offers in hand’
I’d certainly take you up on it. There are some blogs that are worth tens of millions of dollars.
Of course, we’re talking only about the most popular blogs — most of the blogs that are threatening traditional media outlets are not near big enough to pull in substantial money. But the model is out there, and some folks are making it work for them.
Actually that Larue article makes it sound like Bedard is very much interested in coming back to Seattle. He doesn’t seem the type to be blowing sunshine up our heineys if he didn’t mean it.
I agree with those who have said that getting mad at Jim Street just seems not worth it.
I get that Bedard is high-risk, high-reward. Has there been an analysis somewhere of what the “high” reward might be? Yes, I remember how good he was when good, but seems like the best case scenario is only about 10-15 starts.
Lots of good opinion that I both agree and disagree with in this thread. I side with those who think the slamming of Jim Street is a bit over-the-top. I said this with regard to Jon Heyman the other day – though Heyman is a far sight better reporter than Street – but the one thing guys like Heyman and Street have from decades in the business is connections. It doesn’t take much to report what you hear, as long as you are getting it from somewhere reliable. I don’t doubt that Street has some reliable sources.
Where I do doubt Street is in the ability to distinguish whether this source is one of the reliable ones. With as tight-lipped as the current Mariner FO is, I doubt anybody there leaked this. And, if it came from Bedard’s people, it smacks of the kind of “agent trying to create a market” thing that Jack was quoted on in Baker’s article on the increasing influence of Twitter of a couple months back (which Street clearly didn’t read). Either that or the M’s are floating a trial balloon to see what fan reaction to a Bedard signing might be…but I just don’t see them as that kind of FO, that would care that much about the public reaction if they knew it was a solid baseball and value move.
As for Bedard, I could give a shit less what any reporter or KJR host thinks of him. He is clearly the most talented pitcher left on the market, with the highest upside. Also, clearly, the highest risk, but that’s why he’s so cheap. For those saying they don’t want him around because it is a reminder of “the worst trade ever,” well, the only way that trade gets worse is if you only controlled Bedard for two years, got no compensatory picks for him, and ended up getting only 30 starts for him. This is the best way to salvage some value out of that trade.
I like the idea a lot. It would seem to me that a low base + incentives based both on games started and innings pitched would make a lot of sense. Give him $250K for 10 starts, $500K for getting to 15 starts, another $500K for 20 starts, and work in IP incentives so that if he is consistently working into the 6th and 7th inning while making those starts, he can double those incentives. If he hits them, he’s well worth it.
I’d try to build in an easily vesting club option for another year that is similarly structured but allows Bedard to make even more if healthy and effective in 2011, which he can then use as a true springboard for his last stab at a decent payday contract going into his age 33-36 years.
Four years of Bedard (though maybe he only gives you maybe 2 of those at anything close to reasonable health) is a helluva lot better than less than one full season’s worth of him in mostly poor health – though I agree with Briggstarr, what he did while not healthy was actually impressive – for what we gave up to get him.
No, at the the dollars Street was talking about, it’s LOW risk.
I’d have to say he certainly was worth his salary. $15 MM for 30 excellent starts.
Oops… didn’t mean to quote it all…
Nathaniel, it wasn’t just the $15M, it was the guys we gave up to get him. Much more that than the $$. And not all of those 30 starts were golden, even if I would concede that $15M for a .600-ish pitcher who was worth 3 WAR in those 30 starts is starting to get close to “worth it” (Fangraphs estimates that performance was “worth” $10.4M, and $/win have been dropping in the current market from what they were then).
LoveMeSomeStats, I think Bedard projects to a little more than 10-15 starts. They say he’s seven months in on a surgery with a recovery time of 10-12 months, and he’s reportedly on pace if not a bit ahead of schedule. That puts him in line to pitch just about exactly half a season, which would be somewhere between 15 and 20 starts. The fan projections have him at 18, as does CHONE; Bill James projects him for 15 (and the fans, CHONE, and MARCEL all have him projected for between 105 and 110 IP).
There is certainly value there, given the kind of contract Street reports is under consideration.
Personally I’d rather have half a season of Bedard than a whole season of Washburn…..
Amen brother.
If this rumor comes to fruition, the Sheets and Harden (and even Lackey, though he’s considerably more durable) deals look all the better from the M’s perspective, though both may provide many more innings than Bedard can this season.
Harden in 2010: $6.5Mil plus an additional $2.5 million in performance bonuses
Sheets in 2010: $10Mil plus up to $2 million in incentives
Bedard in 2010: $1.5Mil plus a “shipload” ($2 million???) in incentives
Lackey in 2010: $18Mil!!!
Somebody made an excellent point about the possibility of the third pitcher in the rotation having to pitch on the road in the playoffs.
A healthy southpaw by the name of Bedard fits that bill perfectly.
Make it happen!
On his salary alone, I have no problem at all with what they paid him. If you want to say he wasn’t worth the salary and the players we gave up to get him, I absolutely agree.
I’ll take a half season of Bedard AND a whole seson of Washburn.
Actually, FanGraphs lists his value as $4.9 in 2008 and $8.6 in 2009. That makes him worth $13.5 over those two seasons/thirty starts. That’s a fair bit more than $10.4. That’s a whole young, league average player contract more than $10.4.
There’s a problem, though. In Seattle, as a middle-back of the rotation guy, Bedard’s not getting the same number of starting opportunities as he would as a top-middle of the rotation guy he would elsewhere. Even when healthy, Bedard’s only started more than 30 games once. He’s usually in the mid-high 20′s.
On the recovery, let’s project him to 11 months–the dead middle of his 10-12 month recovery time. That puts him ready in 4 months, or the beginning of June. A few rehab starts, and we have him for the end of June and all of July thru September barring injury problems. That’s exactly half a season in a rotation where he’d be looking at ~28 starts for a full season.
As a starter, Bedard throws roughly 5.8 innings per game on average. That’s only 81.2 innings. I find that worrisome. There’s still a good deal of value left in him, but we’re looking at a return of roughly 1.5 WAR if Bedard pitches to the levels he did as a Mariner (1.1 in 2008 over 81 innings, 1.9 in 2009 over 83 innings). If he recovers to his Oriole form and just has to shake off the rust, we’re looking at a 2-2.5 win pitcher at best for half a season.
I like Bedard, but I am in no way sold that he is the best option for the M’s right now.
As others have mentioned, signing Bedard for that 1.5 million base+incentives deal still leaves a lot of room for the front office to sign a more long-term guy, like, uh, Washburn (though that gives us 4 southpaws plus Felix; I’d probably go for a right hander). That gives us 3-4 wins for 8-10 million. Good deal.
Why? A half season of Bedard is worth about the same as a full season of Washburn in terms of WAR.
Because the other half of the season you toss in Vargas, Fister or someone else for (hopefully) another win.
I agree this is way too much energy to spend on anything written by Street. It just doesn’t matter. Dave needs to get another post up so we can all focus on the new shiny thing like the ADHD magpies we all are.
Well that’s true, except there are so many people who just mindlessly parrot whatever the little talking box whispers in their ears, and a lot of them get on here to do it. Unfortunately Dave isn’t on the radio enough for those human finger puppets to be repeating him. So what the KJR blowhards say does have an effect on what we have to deal with here at USSM.
I fully agree, though, that getting Bedard on a cheap contract is the only way to salvage some value from that trade — especially since the team is even now still paying for his medical treatment and rehab. But the cost here isn’t the dollars, it’s the risk, and the fact that he won’t help the team at all for the first half of the season (at least) and might not be healthy enough to contribute in any meaningful way at all. Now, that is mitigated by the fact that you have to go find another #3 SP right now to handle the first half of the season, and if that turns out well then anything Bedard contributes is pure gravy. But that just means the whole Bedard thing is a complete side-show at this point: it has zero impact on the opening day roster (other than whatever Bedard costs in salary), and we should be focusing our energies on speculating on who this other #3 SP might be.
Well, GMs generally don’t make public their opinions of other GMs (with the notable exception of Bavasi himself, who memorably expressed his opinion of Dave Samson.)
There’s plenty of documentation of where other people stood on the trade at the time, though, because it dragged out for weeks while various aspects of it leaked out. Even before the final details were known, however, Dave had gone on the record saying plainly “Even if Adam Jones was a free agent after 2009, given their respective abilities and salaries, I wouldn’t trade Adam Jones for Erik Bedard straight up. The fact that the Mariners then control Jones from 2010 to 2013 makes this an obviously horrible trade.” And that was before we knew about all the other prospects going to Baltimore.
But that wasn’t an especially popular opinion at the time (as you’ll see in the comments on that post). A lot of people just saw “great pitcher in return for a bunch of people I’ve never heard of” and praised the deal. A “proven ace” was valuable; a young “league average outfielder” was not. I had several heated arguments with folks who said Jones “had his chance” (at age 21! With less than 150 PAs spread over two seasons!) and “hasn’t shown anything.” I had a guy laugh at me when I suggested Jones would be the Orioles ASG representative sooner or later. I wish I could find that guy now.
Re-reading that thread, though, I think Carson gets credit for ultimately calling it:
But you would rather head into the playoffs with a healthy Bedard than a healthy Washburn.
If the price is right, though, the Mariners could do both.
As has been stated and restated, it is freakin ridiculous how far removed we are from the painful years of past Mariners GMs and their woeful incompetence.
I love the idea. If this is true I’ll also be “schoolgirl giddy”….but watching Bedard throw is pretty painful. He works SOOO slow. A couple of the longest 5 inning, 2 run pitching performances I’ve ever seen…
I don’t have a problem with what Bedard was paid, either. Even if you argue that paying $15M for a 3 WAR pitcher is overpaying (which it would be), it is totally 20-20 hindsight to argue that one could tell you’d only be getting 3 WAR over the next two years for a guy who had just been worth 10.4 WAR over the previous two years. I do remember being adamantly opposed to the Bedard deal in part because his injury history was a real risk, but I would never claim I thought Bedard would only be worth 3 WAR over these last two years. Maybe 6 WAR, which still would have been a disappointing, steep drop from what he’d been. And 6 WAR at $15M would have been a very good value, at least when considered in a vacuum that doesn’t consider what they gave up.
I was completely referring to the non-vacuum context, though. Just look at it in terms of WAR: the players we gave up – all except Sherrill under long-term, cost-controlled club control – produced 7.5 WAR over the same period that Bedard produced 3, and really only two of the five players we gave up spent any significant amount of time in MLB in that time. Even if Bedard had produced 6 WAR, or 7.5, or hell, even 10, there’s little chance that giving up that much long-term cost controlled talent that is producing a similar number of WAR can be considered a good deal. Not even if he only made what they made, collectively.
As that deal goes into the next 2-3 years, it’s gonna only get worse. Chris Tillman, who has yet to really spend much time in MLB, is projected to 1.9 WAR this year; Jones is projected for about 3.5. I don’t know what Sherrill’s WAR prjection is, but it has to be somewhere in the 1-1.5 WAR region he was last year. Mickolio projects to be the same kind of 0.2-0.3 WAR guy he has been. Butler is still buried in the low minors, so we’ll leave him out of it).
This is why I see signing Bedard to a low-base contract like this to be the only way to salvage some value out of the deal. I just doing see the point of washing your hands of Bedard now.
Larry Stone checks in on the subject
I think that if we can sign Bedard (a great move at the costs that we’re talking about), these 4 can fill the bottom 3 of the rotation (Vargas or Fister probably being the odd-man-out), with the other working mop-up. Then, when Bedard comes back, the lower of the 3 is likely to head to the bullpen, or perhaps be released, depending on who is hurt.
Here is the rotation I think would be beautiful:
Pre-Bedard:
Felix, Lee, RRS, Snell, Vargas
With Bedard:
Felix, Lee, Bedard, RRS, Snell
The second one has the potential to post some incredibly low numbers thanks to our defense. If Bedard returns to be the player he was for part of last year, this team is looking sweet, and is still set up to deal with some injuries, or make a trade at the deadline.
We have lots of options to fill the #3 spot in the rotation. And the first spot and second spot and fourth and fifth too. And as long as they’re able to slot Felix and Lee in at the first two spots (hoping everything goes well in Spring Training and they’re healthy, knock on wood), beyond that, it doesn’t matter too much where the other guys slot in. Well, you want to keep the least effective of them at the #5 slot, as that spot doesn’t get as many starts as the others.
Looks like I forgot the link to Dave’s commentary on the Bedard trade in my earlier comment.
I’m still pretty dubious about Snell, btw. I want him to be good and successful (and not just because he’s an M) but based on what we saw of him last year, I have a lot of doubts.
I would love to sign him and just let him rehab till the all-star break. Don’t even count on him till then. Maybe if he only pitches half a season he could stay healthy the entire season. A healthy Bedard, Felix, Lee in the playoffs would very nice. Specially due to the infamous (around here anyway) scheduling flaw.
@hark: “Actually, FanGraphs lists his value as $4.9 in 2008 and $8.6 in 2009. That makes him worth $13.5 over those two seasons/thirty starts.”
Oops, my bad. You are correct – I looked at the wrong column (and wrong years). Worth $13.5M, got paid ~$15M. But again, the cost there wasn’t the $$ but the value/production the M’s gave up.
As for what Bedard projects to, I still think he projects to something over 15 starts, but of course that depends on when he debuts. I don’t disagree with what you said about the number of starts he might get pitching somewhere in the #3-#5 slots over only the second half of the season though.
I do quibble with your WAR projections for Bedard, though. The reason he pitch so few games and innings over the last two years is he was hurt. If the surgery is successful, you should expect something better than what he gave you when he was hurt (though probably not what he was pre-injury). I have no issues, or problem, with the CHONE/fans’ projection for Bedard at roughly 2 WAR and a tad over 100 innings in 18 starts. If he isn’t close to that productive (let’s say 1.0 WAR over 10 starts), he probably only gets paid in the neighborhood of $2-$2.5M. That’s still good value. If he pitches more like a healthy Bedard, your $/win are probably even better.
Unless we know the M’s only have enough budget left to sign only one pitcher, there really isn’t opportunity cost lost here. I’m not sure I would go after Washburn (not just because he’s another lefty, but also because he isn’t much better than the kids he’d supposedly replace). I’d rather go with some combination of Smoltz or Pedro, plus one of the kids (Fister-Vargas-Hill-French-Olson, et al) if/when they aren’t healthy – plus the addition of Bedard in the second half.
1. Felix
2. Cliff
3. RRS
4. Pedro or Smoltz + kids + 2nd half Snell
5. 1st half Snell + 2nd half Bedard
That is a pretty decent rotation, and with that much coverage and competition, pretty good mitigation of pitching health risk.
Fox Sports Jon Morosi tweets:
“Source confirms that Bedard is close to a one-year deal with the Mariners.”
The Mariners are on the hook for his rehab anyway. Why tie up payroll with him until you have to?
Simple. I would rather have a healthy Bedard in the playoffs than Washburn.
@Jeff Nye: “The Mariners are on the hook for his rehab anyway. Why tie up payroll with him until you have to?”
In a perfect world, you wouldn’t. In an imperfect world, you would, so that somebody like Baltimore or KC doesn’t pick him off, making a horrible trade even less salvageable than ever. Especially if he went back to Baltimore. How badly would THAT suck, especially if he ended up pitching well this year?
It’s just not enough money that it is worth it to risk that.
Eh. Half a season of Bedard is probably the equivalent of a league average starter for a full season. And that’s assuming that he comes back from surgery with no problems and doesn’t get reinjured.
I just don’t see him being this fantastic commodity that you have to snap up before somebody else gets him.
In a pure baseball sense I’d rather have Washburn; of course, the selfish side of me doesn’t want The Bus back in a Mariners uniform ever again.
What surprises me is the pettiness of the Mariner’s blogosphere. It seems that half the stuff you read is reporting on what others have written and there seems to be a rule that they (M’s blogosphere) all need to agree. If someone says something that contradicts someone else, there is blood to be paid.
Please note! I could be wrong… It’s just my observation.
But the price is right, first off, and secondly, I’d rather have Bedard in September than someone like Washburn.
Jeff at LL makes a good point: the Mariners already know that Bedard will miss at least the first couple of months so will have built a roster intended to get by without him. Anything Bedard provides after that will be a bonus. There’s little risk involved in signing him with lots of potential reward.
Good to see you taking the moral high road, Dave!
To be clear, I like Bedard. I just don’t see where he’s someone you have to rush to sign before he gets snapped up.
If they sign him to a cheap deal, it certainly wouldn’t be a bad move.
So Jeff, you are saying that you think a league average pitcher is worth approximately 1.5 WAR? Because that’s what a hurt Bedard has been worth for a pro-rated 15 starts at performance levels of the last two years. I have a hard time believing he can’t pitch to that level, given that he already did, while hurt.
The risk is if he can’t pitch, but that is a risk with any pitcher you sign. Wang carries just as much risk as Bedard (IMO), the Bus hasn’t been injury-free either, and certainly Pedro and Smoltz carry both performance-decline and injury risks at this stage of their careers.
What other “league average” pitcher is out there (unless you’re talking trade)?
Dave I read your blog daily and enjoy it immensely. Except when you complain about a specific writer, that seems kind of petty. Street has no effect on the M’s and I couldn’t care less if he wants to use his blog to speculate or complain about blogs and twitter. He didn’t single anyone out. Street is paid to do a job and apparently those who sign his check are satisfied with his work. I wouldn’t have read his blog if you hadn’t linked to it.
Would it be possible to just write about the baseball and the M’s and forget about whatever rivalries exist between writers? Like many people, I have a fever and the only cure is more M’s!
Ditto Joeyjojo’s sentiments. Dave, you come across as a petty whiner in this post. I thought maybe you’d leave it at that, but then you added an additional comment, and tweeted about it, saying: “Bedard tells LaRue: ‘No one’s made a concrete offer.’ Chalk up another lazy blogger just making stuff up. What? Street’s a journalist? Oh.” C’mon. Grow up.
I’m sure 99% of us would like to focus on the awesomeness of Bedard on a 1-year deal.
And I’m equally sure that 99% of us don’t give a flying fig about whether you like Dave’s tone or not.
CCW (and Dave), The tweet that you referenced was the main reason why I wrote my earlier post… I do appreciate that hard work and the analysis from this site and I have benefited from it, but this kind of thing (pettieness towards Jim Steet) makes me feel like I am reading a juvenile’s rant. DMZ’s past tirades against posters have been equally disappointing. I hope USSM decides to take a page out of ProballNW’s book and truly take the higher road that Taylor H suggested.
If you kids don’t play nice I’m going to take the trolley down to the newstand and buy a P-I!
We all grow old so be kind to your elders. Life will kick you in the ‘nads soon enough.
You’re about to see a rant, but it’s not going to be from Dave.
It was Jim Street who decided to call “bloggers and twitters” out as not caring about accuracy.
Dave’s well within his rights to defend himself against that accusation, and he’s not required to wear kid gloves while doing so, since Street sure as hell didn’t.
If you like ProballNW so much, go there. Pretending that Dave is trying to pick a fight with poor, misunderstood Jim Street isn’t going to fly, here.
Who wins the fight if Bedard does sign with the M’s for $1.5 million plus incentives?
I don’t know, I always thought Dave needed a little more mid-range, and a little less gain, but that’s most guitar players really.
We’re talking about Dave Navarro, right?
Jeff Nye said:
then ..
Yes, telling people who don’t agree with you to go away is good way to achieve an audience that is 99% in agreement. You might want to consider that the next time you have to refute the group-think charge.
That’s enough. Comments closed.
My what?