Bedard Confirms Deal
Sullivan google translates a French newspaper in which Bedard is quoted as saying:
“I’m really happy it was my first choice but to return to Seattle”, he said yesterday as he was en route to Peoria, Arizona.
The deal is, as reported, $1.5M in guaranteed money and a shipload of incentives. Kudos to Jim Street for getting it right.
While a physical for Bedard is obviously not a minor thing, the Mariners have been in charge of his rehab, so they obviously are aware of the current state of his arm, more than anyone else. I wouldn’t expect them to find a problem that nukes the deal. In what can only be considered a pretty big surprise, Bedard is a Mariner again.
My thoughts on the deal – obviously, for $1.5 million out of pocket, the risk is minimal. He could suffer a setback and never pitch again, and the M’s wouldn’t be out much of anything. Signing Bedard to this deal won’t keep them from doing anything else you might want them to do. The guaranteed money is basically irrelevant.
And, as we all have seen in spurts, when he is healthy, he’s a really good pitcher. Despite pitching through an injury, his FIP last year was basically the same as Felix’s. His curveball is a knockout weapon, and when he’s on the mound at anything near 100%, he’s one of the best left-handed pitchers in the game. The thought of what he could be is extremely enticing, I know. I realize that the natural reaction to this is to envision a front of the rotation that goes Felix-Lee-Bedard, then start jumping up and down and hugging yourself.
Not to be a downer, but we have to really temper our expectations of what he’s going to give us, though. He’s out until at least May, and he’s not known for being a quick healer. June is probably more likely. So, for the first 1/3 of the season, don’t count on seeing him on the mound. If he recovers to the point of being able to pitch in June, then he’s going to have to work his way back up, going through his own personal spring training. He’s not going to just be ready to throw 100 pitches in a big league game right off the bat. There’s going to be rust to work through.
And, honestly, there’s a question of how long he’ll last. He hasn’t pitched a game in September since 2006. He broke down at 80 innings in each of the last two years. You hope that surgery has fixed the problem, but these shoulder issues aren’t like broken legs; they don’t heal as good as new. He could easily end up taking the Mike Hampton career path, where even when he’s healthy, he’s not really healthy, and he limps along from one DL trip to the next.
Bedard has now had both labrum surgery and Tommy John surgery. His arm has been through some wars. Trying to figure out just how much is left in the tank is a guessing game. Obviously, we’d love for him to be the new Chris Carpenter, and there’s a chance for that to happen. But there’s an equal (or probably greater) chance of him being the new Mark Prior, where he just continually breaks down and never gets back to the early promise he had.
Just because of what is possible and the low cost, I think you have to like this deal. The M’s aren’t really risking anything, and there are scenarios where Bedard comes back and pitches well, giving them the best 1-2-3 in all of baseball, and a potentially dominating playoff rotation. Just because of the upside and the lack of risk, this is absolutely a deal worth making, and I’m glad to see that the M’s went for reward rather than conservative safety.
But, on the other hand, we should be realistic about what to expect. Bedard coming back in May and giving us 120+ innings of All-Star pitching is just really unlikely. We should hope for about half a season’s worth of innings, and not have too high of expectations for the level of performance he’ll offer, coming off another major arm surgery. Be hopeful, but be realistic.
I’m curious what measures the Mariners will take to protect his arm and maybe keep him healthy for the stretch run/playoffs (hopefully necessary). It seems to me that keeping him on a low pitch count and maybe skipping him every so often might be a good idea, though I’m aware that trying to project future arm injuries is a fool’s game.
Thanks for the analysis. So, do you think this is the final pitching move, or is Z going to try to bring in another starter?
I’m very excited about this deal. Felix, Lee and Bedard. It’s like it’s Christmas….all off season long!
Byrnes, Garko and Bedard: $2.45M + incentives.
Ken Griffey Jr: $2.35M + incentives.
Damn stinkin’ work computer! Sorry, guys!
I hope the local sports radio folks get off the “Bedard is a whimp” thing. Great move Z man!
I don’t think Jack will ever be done. His staff is going to continue looking for opportunities to improve the team, and he’s going to try to make things happen.
So, there may not be another addition for some time, but if wouldn’t suprise me if something else happened.
Even if we only get him for the second half of the season this is still a good deal.
Is it crazy talk to consider sending him to the bullpen?
If, if, if …, he can be healthy Aug, Sept, and Oct (fingers crossed)–wow, just wow.
So who should we hope to see the most often as long reliever in Bedard’s appearances?
I’d think that past history indicates that if you’re regularly going to need someone in the 6th for Bedard you might as well get that person on a regular routine, and find someone who will be a good contrast to Bedard’s style to keep the batters off-balance. And they’d better be pretty solid whoever they are, because they’re not likely inheriting many runners or seeing a very large score on the board when they come in…
Excellent write up. Thanks Dave.
Wow Mr Genre, Looks like you need an IT guy.
I still think that we should go after another SP. Liriano is probably out of reach if the Twins signed Hudson. Harang maybe? I am not excited about Washburn, but for some reason signing him doesn’t sounds as bad following this.
To spite Dave, I just jumped up and down and hugged myself. Not bad for shits and giggles. I do love this signing. The M’s will probably be pretty good, but have the potential to be REALLY good this year. Haven’t seen that in a while…
Good write up Dave.
Quick question, if Bedard were to come back and have a good season (win 9-11 games, etc) would he have any chance to be a Type-A or Type-B FA? And if the Mariner’s were to offer him arbitration would it based off of this 1.5 million dollar deal (meaning a lower reward were he to accept)?
I’d be real happy if Bedard gave us what he put up last year – 15 starts, 80+ innings and an ERA under 3.00.
I do think they really need to add Washburn, though. Fister, French, et. al. seem like a pretty big drop off from the 1-2 punch at the top. Wash could eat some innings and make the 6 man bullpen not such a risk.
I’m betting the physical for Bedard is more to gauge his progress to see whether he might be ready in May or July. If July, then they’ll sign Washburn. If May, probably not.
I think the Mike Hampton comparison could be very apt, although he did have a pretty good run (much better than I remember, actually, now having just looked at the numbers) from 1995-2000. If he is Mike Hampton of late, though, Dave is right that the money 1) does not hamstring what the M’s can do this year, and 2) allows the M’s to have a high-risk, high-upside guy for cheap. To put another way, would we rather have Ben Sheets for the “whole” season (~151 IP average from 2005-2008) at $10 million guaranteed, or Bedard for 2/3 of the season at $1.5 million guaranteed. Chalk up another victory for Jackie Z, I say. At the same time, Dave is right that expectations should be tempered.
How many WAR would you pencil Bedard in for? 1 to 1.5?
vr, Xei
I’m basically hoping Bedard joins a first-place team sometime in July and gives us a boost into the playoffs.
Man, if Bedard does get healthy our 1-2-3 has the potential to be amazing. If RRS develops as we hope, and Snell puts it together … hello World Series.
I would almost want to not bring Bedard back until August. He adds alot to the team when healthy, but I want him to be a strictly Post Season pitcher. Obviously you can’t just start in October so give him the last two months to get ready. Now if we are fighting for the West in June or July and he’s healthy it be understandable to bring him up then.
Like dave posted on twitter, now that we have Bedard, if we could get Washburn on the cheap, I think he could be a good 3 or 4 for us. The guy should be able to put up around the same numbers as last year, at least I hope he can. Not sure he is better than a healthy RRS, but that’s what the spring is for. A Felix-Lee-RRS-Wash-Snell rotation is pretty scary I think, then in august when you are running out a Felix-Lee-Bedard-RRS-Wash, that may be the best in baseball.
If that is the case, how well do you think Snell would work out of the bullpen? Just a long reliever or is he capable of a more high leverage role?
Potentially, it will allow a less valuable player become a more valuable player in time for the trading deadline (e.g. Fister?) and help bring in some offensive POP for the playoffs.
Jim Street is an excellent reporter who took a lot of unnecessary shots this week.
Hopefully, adding Bedard means Washburn will be another team’s problem.
Still a lot of ifs, including if he can regain his former sharpness. Some of his problems going far in games over the last two years could maybe be attributed to pitching with injury. Not only discomfort, but also being dead-on with his pitches.
Those foul-off after foul-off at bats could turn into strikeouts “if” he regains his former stuff, and he could go much further into games. If. If he does, what a dynamite 1-2-3 the second half of the season.
As far as how this move affects future transactions, I think that this just about ends any idea that Wash comes here. A Felix-Lee-Bedard-Wash-RRS rotation is too left-handed, especially with the lineup that Texas has put together. I think the rotation is fine right now if they use the off-days to shorten the rotation when possible and let Snell and Fister battle for the 5th spot when Bedard comes back.
Can someone speak to the wisdom of having 1 righty (Felix) and 4 lefties in a rotation (Lee, RRS, Bedard, and Washburn)?
Is that an issue, or not?
Like CCW, I just jumped up and down and hugged myself. Although not out of spite, but simply because I couldn’t help myself.
A lot of negative crap has been said and written about Bedard over the last several years. I think it’s important to note the intestinal fortitude he’s showing to resign with us, despite the potential for further smearing of his character should he falter in his rehab/healing. If the rumours are true, and Baltimore also wanted him, he could have easily signed with them and rehabbed in a more “fan friendly” environment. By that I mean friendly to him.
Here’s hoping that his recovery goes well and that this gives us the inside track to signing a fully recovered and improved Bedard for 2011! The potential of a healthy Bedard behind Felix and Lee* with Ackley playing 2nd base is more than I can stand!
* Presuming we resign Lee.
Anyone else worried about multiple lefties in the starting rotation? I remember back in the 90’s when pitching Moyer and Halama in the same series and Moyer would be fine while Halama would get hammered big time. Now the talent level of Bedard (when healthy) and Lee are much higher and do not rely on throwing slow junk with lots of movement a la Moyer/Halama. Still, they do have similar styles with the plus fastball/curveball combo, Lee benefiting from a good slider as well. I’m not sure I would want them starting back to back. And this concern regarding lefty starters might mean that RRS gets thrashed if he’s still in the rotation when Bedard gets back. I like the signing, but it will be interesting to see if we see the lefty effect resurface…
I’m still gonna hug myself . . just a little.
This strikes me as essentially getting a raffle ticket as a birthday gift. It probably won’t amount to anything, but if it works out, terrific. The key is to maximize the amount of tickets you get.
Zduriencik needs to keep up the good work with these kind of deals. Sooner or later we will win the raffle.
Love the move. I feel like the chances of making the playoffs barely goes up, but the chances of winning/making the World Series goes up quite a bit. Adding J-Wash would increase our playoff chances more than this acquisition, but adding Bedard increases our World Series chances.
Maybe they will still do both, or something else even better, the team still has cash and resources.
i always love to see players that feel they have something to prove. Bedard has two years of something to prove.
It’s February, the sun is out (at least in eastern Redmond), it’s 56 degrees or something, now is the time to hope and have playoff scenarios go through our head. Sure, it’ll probably all come crashing down in August, but that’s August. For now, imagine a playoff rotation of Felix/Lee/Bedard and think about the M’s being a team that would be feared.
I was worried about this a little when people talked about bringing back Washburn. While I’d still like to see Snell given a shot (and he’d probably get one, at least until Bedard is healthy), I have to think you just want your best pitchers out there, irrespective of platoon splits. Even against RH dominated lineups, Bedard will do better than Fister because he’s just a better pitcher.
And if the roof has fallen in before the end of July, Jack Z has put himself in a position of potentially getting some interesting pieces back for our growing pile of one year wonders.
Now how about signing Washburn for a $2M base with $3M incentives.
This will give us Washburn until Bedard is health in May/June, then the Z Man can pull another miraculous trade with Dombroski and send Washburn over for another 1 or 2 prospects of there’s. I say Dombroski just to be sarcastic
But, the incentives wouldn’t kick in until the 2nd Half either, so it would only cost us $1M for Washburn, thru June, and the team picking him up would pay his 2nd half salary + any incentives “if” he pitches decent.
With the Twins spending their $5M on Hudson, Washburn’s options are Mariners or retirement. For cheap he’d be a great fillin until Bedard is health.
The only negative thing I can see is that it could push RRS to the bullpen in long relief. Not sure if this would be a good thing?!
This is what Beane is doing with Sheets this year! Whoever they trade Sheets to in July will be on the hook for any incentives that actually kick in…along with his 2nd half salary.
The Sheets signing has a great chance of landing Beane some great prospects to stock the farm with. He’s a master at this sign and trade thing. He does have the risk though of Sheets hitting the DL again, and not being able to trade…but then it would be a One-and-Done deal this year on a 1yr contract.
Safeco favors LHPing, and LHBs, so I don’t think it would be necessarily a bad thing. So at least half of our games would be covered rotation wise at Safeco Field. Then you add our impeccable Defense behind that rotation…WOW!
I doubt this means that Washburn is off the table. Bedard will miss at least a couple of months and maybe much more than that, so Jack Z will have to fill his rotation based on Bedard not being part of it. If he has the chance to pick up another starter he’ll do it. I don’t know how much interest he has in Washburn but if the price is right I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wash back in a Mariner uniform.
Jim Street is such an excellent reporter that he copies and pastes from other people’s articles with no accreditation, that he never proofreads anything, that he has gotten the ages and contract statuses of players wrong repeatedly. I’m blacklisted from commenting on his posts on the official Mariners site because I’ve criticized him too often.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day. I’ll chalk this one up to time in the biz. I will give him credit for at least having his ear to the ground this time.
Jim Street dealt some unnecessary shots this week; it’s logical that he took some, too.
It’s funny how we are all talking about a rotation with Wash in it, as if he is a Mariner. I don’t even think they intend on signing him anymore, unless he is willing to take 3-4 million. It can be a phenomenal rotation. If Smith can stay healthy, and live up to the hype, then we will have the best 1-2-3 in the majors. That isn’t even with Bedard in there. It’s going to be exciting, but it seems like an awful lot has to happen for it to all come together. I think that the icing on this off season would be to trade for Harang. Unfortunately, I don’t think that our resources are good enough to do so. We don’t currently have enough depth to send 3 players their way. They don’t need Lopez, although I wouldn’t want to trade him anyways. I think our best bet is to try and pry Liriano away from the Twins, although that seems unlikely with the success he is currently having. Not to mention his velocity has some what returned. This signing may mean that Z is content with the current rotation and Bedard will just be a boost come mid-season.
I remember the D-Backs winning the world Series against the Yankees with only 2 primier starters. Though they had a few bangers, Matt Williams, Mark Grace, Luis Gonzalez et al. They won the WS on their pitching. Just think if the M’s make it to the playoffs with 3 #1 pitchers, that would be great.
I like this guy.
In isolation, Bedard doesn’t excite me all that much. But in Jack’s scheme it continues the theme of low risk, high upside. You’ve got your 4+ WAR players (The anchors!) – Hernandez, Lee, Ichiro, Guti. Solid 2-3 WAR players – Figgins (upside), Lopez, Wilson (maybe). Then a few, low-risk, potential upside guys – Bradley, Bedard, Kotchman, Byrnes. The beauty of this as opposed to the Bavasi years is we don’t need all those guys to pop. We need 1 or 2 to be solid and it would be a bonus if one of the 4 exceeds expectations. This team doesn’t over rely on one or two guys, and the future doesn’t get mortgaged.
I’m a little worried that our long relief is limited because of the 11 man pitching staff and that Bedard will eat into the bullpen health. I suspect we’ll have to up the pitching staff by one or have a bench player on the DL.
I’m also curious about why Jack Z is in the Dominican Republic. Both because this deal got done with him far away and because of the Haiti stuff. Haven’t seen anything about it other than he’s down there.
Remember the third guy? Ba-something?
7â…” shutout innings to start game 5 and a key out from the bullpen in the decider. Talk about timing your peak.
Incidentally, I note he pitched one start and one game out of the ‘pen in all three rounds. I’m thinking that’s pretty rare, if not unique.
“Remember the third guy? Ba-something?”
Yea Miguel Batista. I wonder where he landed?
I don’t think we really want Bedard to come back before June or July. Before it tries to integrate a pitcher as risky as Bedard, the organization first needs enough time to see who among the younger pitchers at the back of the rotation might develop. This move gives the FO the flexibility to reassess needs mid-season when they have a clearer picture of what kind of rotation they actually have.
Whatever team that is trading for a player with incentives absolutely knows those incentives are in his contract. They wouldn’t necessarily be on the hook for all of them, they could work the deal so that the team trading him would be responsible for some of those incentives.
Don’t let him pitch until August. I would count on about 3 months and 70-100 innings at best from him so would rather have those Aug-Oct than June-August.
Has anyone ever seen a team built with so many high risk/high reward type players?
If everything falls into place I don’t see how the M’s can loose. We would have the BEST starting rotation in baseball by far.
But the IF’s are everywhere. IF Milton Bradley can keep his head on straight. IF Casey can finally live up to his potential. IF Jack Wilson can stay healthy all year. IF Franklin can continue to hit. IF Lopez will produce like he did last year. IF one of the young catcher’s breaks out. IF the bullpen can shut down the late innings. IF Bedard proves he is not made of glass. IF my childhood HERO can TICKLE as good as he did last summer. IF Don can can continue to show that his has a great baseball mind. IF Ichiro can continue to define aging. IF….. I mean it continues with the entire roster. The only constants will be the GLOVES, THE KING and MR. LEE.
However, saying all that I LOVE LOVE THIS TEAM. SPRING IS IN THE AIR. GO MARINERS! I LOVE YOU JACK.
The mighty Washington Nationals…
Like the Hoboken Zephyrs from that old Twilight Zone episode, always a fun franchise to wind down one’s career with.
As Dave pointed out, the risk here is minimal. Ben Sheets at $10M is high risk, especially for a team with a $50M payroll.
As for the other players, there is already a healthy amount of regression built into each projection so it’s not like the Mariners need every break they can get in order to win the AL West.
Yeah, this is a lot of low risk/medium to high reward players here.
That’s how you want to build a team. (Yeah, they may ALL fall flat on their faces, but it’s much more likely that at least one will hit the high end).
Agreed there…that signing did seem a bit outside of what Beane usually does. When injuries and a lack of innings from starters not named Cahill or Anderson take their toll, going to the craps table for a roll of the dice suddenly becomes an option.
I thought this was interesting:
What? You don’t speak French? Sorry. Roughly, it says that though Bedard wasn’t familiar with all the details of his contract, it contains bonuses for every 30 days he spends on the Mariners roster (presumably the active roster). Bedard is quoted as saying, “if all goes well, I could make about as much as I did last year.” ($7.5 million)
So something else to factor in is that if Bedard *does* get and stay healthy, he won’t be quite as much of a bargain.
I would argue that a healthy and effective Bedard is worth 15mil ++ per year, so either way, you still get a massive bargain.
But that is my opinion.
How does this affect the idea of a 6 man bullpen? When he does join the club, he’s not going to be able to go very deep into games…
It’s not something to be concerned with now. There are any number of moves the Mariners could make by the time he is ready. (Players released, traded, on the DL or optioned to AAA)
I’d have to know the specific incentives to be sure, but given that the base is $1.5M, if Bedard meets enough of them to get to $7.5M, he’s got to be healthy and pitching very effectively – very likely in the range of 2-3 WAR over 15-20 starts. If he can do that, he’s still a MAJOR bargain at $7.5M.
In the somewhat likely event he does eventually break down and hit the DL for a long-ish stint, I just hope people won’t attack him personally, and that includes the indirect and ad hominem shots that tend to come front print sources (not you guys, in other words).
I think it takes a hell of a lot of guts to even attempt to come back again after the injury, rehab, injury, and-on cycle he’s been in for years now. He could have just quit and lived comfortably in retirement long ago–I am going to go out on a limb here and say this guy must actually love the game of baseball, despite what others try to project onto him.
The incentives aren’t going to be triggered by how effective he is — other than allowing him to meet certain playing time threshholds, which is what the bulk of the incentives are likely to be. There are probably some awards incentives in there as well. Things like MVP or Cy Young votes, post-season appearances, MVP of post-season series, etc. He could meet those and make what he made last year, but a lot of those aren’t very likely.
Yes. That’s all I have to say.
A fresh arm coming into the rotation at the all-star break with #1 starter potential. I was hoping this would happen. And believed it would, since we were bankrolling his rehab even though he wasn’t under contract.
Bedard has always been an odd one, sure, but it was troubling how the media painted him out as a horrible pariah, because he gave lame interviews or seemed indifferent to reporters. The guy put up Felix-like numbers when he was out there, and I for one LOVE to watch him pitch.
I always gave him the benefit of the doubt about his injuries, because of how much passion and drive it takes to compete at the level he has in the Majors. It’s not like he didn’t want to be on the mound (if he can get back to healthy he’s got 5-6 more quality years in him). And it’s not like the two injuries he’s had recently AREN’T major injuries. And he STILL put up stellar numbers while struggling with his health.
The fact that the M’s have advanced the talks to the point of a contract means to me they’re seeing good improvement. Compare how they handled Bedard with how they handled Branyan. Z isn’t doing anybody any favors with this contract– he believes Bedard can help us win, and is on the road to being healthy, period. And still covered out ass-ets (with the incentive laden contract– Bavasi is hopefully taking notes on how this works).
Plus I give Bedard credit for believing he owes it to the M’s to give them more production. If he was the problem child he’s painted out to be, he’d walk away, clean the slate, and sign for more guaranteed money somewhere else.
I’m not defending him so much as just scratching my head still, totally blind to why so many people disliked him (he was basically heaped in the same pile with Batista and Silva that past two years… ?).
Forget his name for a moment… Anyone tells you that you can have a guy with Cy Young caliber stuff for half a season (the playoffs half) for 1.5 million and you jump on it– “where do we sign”.
AND… he has something to prove. To himself, more than anyone. I like it. What’s our next move Z?
Vive la rédemption!
Wheeee…. the thought of Felix/Lee/ a healthy Bedard/ Trained monkey/ Semi trained monkey for a starting rotation… The season can’t get here fast enough !!!
Nathaniel, I didn’t say the incentives would be tied to or triggered by how effective he is. You’re attributing things to me that I didn’t say.
What I intended to communicate is that his incentives are likely to be in these categories (some or all): time on the active roster, games started, and/or innings pitched. I personally think his incentives will include some form of all three. If he hits ALL of his innings pitched incentives, I’m saying that he is very likely pitching effectively, and in that case will very likely be worth every penny of $7.5M (and more). But that doesn’t mean that the incentives are triggered by effectiveness, just that effectiveness is a byproduct of hitting his incentives.
Here is how I temper my realism with enthusiasm.
Just about any team would pay 1.5$ mil for a starting LHP at the trade deadline to help them with the playoff push.
So, don’t rush his recovery, instead save him for Aug/Sep. Which is when our younger arms will probably be tiring anyways.
I agree the 6 man pen obviously could be a concern if and when Bedard is on board. Couldn’t signing Felipe Lopez to play INF and OF in an almost McLemore-like role be a possibility? Or am I reaching waaaaaay too far to think he could adequately replace both Langerhans AND Hanahan?
Pete, hopefully you won’t think that I was putting words in your mouth. I wasn’t sure if you meant that, I was mostly adding a clarification for those reading that thought it might hinge on how effective he was.
Yes, you’re right — if he meets those playing time incentives, it will mean he’s pitching well and will likely be worth whatever pay those incentives give him.
No worries. That came off sounding like I was pissed, and I’m not. I was just trying to clarify myself, since I obviously confused you a bit. Not your fault – mine.
I’m in agreement with those saying it might be best to save him for as late in the season as possible. The value of starting pitching in the playoffs seems to be greater than during the regular season.
And I think Snell could be a good match for him as far as being a different style to come in when he can only go 5 innings. So drop Snell from the rotation when Bedard is ready. So there might still be room for another arm…
I love this deal. Despite the injuries and the media’s cynical view of Bedard’s attitude, I think he’s a top-notch pitcher who could be the perfect #3 man in this rotation. (Albeit, not in the first half of the season.)
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Cliff Lee
3. Erik Bedard
That’s deadly in the postseason.
But goat, what if Snell is better than whoever fills the other slot (whether one of Vargas-Olson-Hill-Fister-French, or some new signing)? I don’t think I would automatically pair Snell with Bedard, no matter how good the complementary fit would be with him, if it meant you left a worse pitcher in the rotation….
I was already thinking that I wanted to save him until later in the season before I got to the part where he gets bonuses for each 30 days. Now I know I want that.
He won’t be worth $7.5 million if he stays on the roster but pitches 5-6 mediocre innings every start. However, the deal is fine with me; I’ll keep my fingers crossed.
I would think, if he signed an incentive-laden contract and he gets healthy, Bedard would have some say about when and how he gets used. Or at least that the Mariners might be facing a grievance if they delayed the debut of a healthy pitcher on an incentive-laden contract on the excuse that they “just want to keep him healthy until late season.” That would have at least the appearance that they might be doing that just to avoid paying the incentives….
I believe that all mariner fans will have their fingers crossed. Could this just be a deal for a player with something to prove and maybe a career on the line? If he does well would he want to come back to Seattle or just a number buffer to go into free agency?
Years from now, when folks look back at The Bedard Trade, they will remember it helped usher out GM Bavasi, and that opened the door for a ‘player’ named later, GM Jack Zduriencik. GM Jack Z. has made the Mariners competitive, entertaining, and relevent. Ironically, while Jack Z. has purged many Bavasi acquisitions, Jack Z has now signed Bedard himself. If Bedard can return to form in June, and stay healthy until the end of October, this could be a very special year for M’s fans.
Along with (apparently) everyone else, I like this deal a lot. What amazes me more, however, is that I’m pretty darn fluent in French and the google translation from the French is bang on! Soon we’ll just carry around little pocket devices to access the interwebs and they’ll translate for us – what? You say that already happens?
But let’s say he’s more of a July return – assuming Washburn isn’t in the mix, is the pre-Bedard rotation Felix/Lee/RRS/Snell/Fister? Obviously, we’d have to see what happens in spring training, but is there anyone else obviously looking to horn in on the rotation?
My hope is the guy logs about 100 innings of 4th starter type production and then hits his stride say in September. To me this is a bet that he could be an impact pitcher if the Ms make the post season.
And there really isn’t a lot of downside to this move flaming out….
Anyone getting nervous that this season is too good to be true? Cause it looks sooooo good on paper…which always makes me nervous. 2008 team looked amazing on paper. I do believe in this team, Ive just been an Ms fan my whole life if u know what i mean. Sox had the curse of the Babe, Cubs got the goat curse… Mariners always get cursed with just unreal,bordering on absurd,Bad Luck. Not this year though right! GO MARINERS AND THANK YOU JACK FOR GIVING BEDARD ANOTHER SHOT!!
Right now it seems that the Mariners have a lot of players that might work out. Many are players who have had success in the past but have struggled recently due to injury, bad luck, or unknown reasons. They could perform at their ceiling or they could crash and burn. Players like Snell, Byrnes, Garko, Bedard, Wilson, Griffey, Kotchman, Bradley…. We are getting most of these players cheap. Those that work are tremendous bargains, those that don’t won’t cost the team much.
My intuition tells me that this team could be very good or just so so. Now I’ve seen tons of projections that show the Ms winning 87/88 games. My question is: Are there any projections that include a standard deviation? How do you account for a wide range outcomes you combine a whole series of unpredictable assets?
I was thinking the same thing. A trade for Harang would be great to balance out the rotation. But who knows what the Reds would ask for him? That may not be feasible. If anybody could pull it off though, it would be Jack Z. I LOVE that guy!
As for Bedard, I agree with Dave. Temper the enthusiasm a little; but it is fun to think about a healthy Bedard following Felix and Lee! What a playoff rotation that would be! I had major shoulder surgery this year and I’ll tell you, it can be extremely painful and frustrating. I hope Erik pulls through and earns every one of those incentives. That would bode very well for the Mariners.
Safeco is a much much better park for LHP.
Even if Bedard is ready to start pitching in May like he hopes he’ll presumably be pitching some rehab assignments in the minors first, and then will be on a strict pitch count for awhile. Even if all goes well, the earliest I see Bedard really being turned loose would be July, and that’s probably optimistic.
Still, this is a great move. At worst the M’s get little or no production out of Bedard and eat the $1.5M, which is chump change in MLB in the grand scheme of things. At best he becomes the equivalent of a mid-season rent-a-player for the pennant run without having to give up any prospects for him.
Bedard should be named Opening Day starter…
That might be overstating it a bit. We know that it’s a park that favors pitching, but we don’t really know how that works out with left handers and right handers. We infer that it’s better for lefties because it tends to increase power to LH hitters and decrease it for RH hitters, but we don’t know to what extent it affects different handed pitchers.
Regarding the quality of the 2008 roster, well, that depends on who you ask.
While the hype level behind the 2008 and 2010 teams seem about the same that’s where the similarities end. After the Bedard trade in 2008, we had the pieces in place only to make a run at the division at best. Too much needed to go right for the team to give the Angels a run for their money.
In 2010, this team is right in the thick of things even based on reasonable expectations. If everything breaks our way we could potentially pull away from the pack. Even if it doesn’t work out, it’s extremely unlikely we’ll suffer anything remotely resembling what we went through in 2008.