Washburn, With A Twist
As readers of the site – and listeners of Brock and Salk – well know, I’m not a huge Jarrod Washburn fan. Among people who don’t make an effort to separate pitching from defense and use metrics like ERA to judge pitchers, he’s generally overrated. His success last year in Seattle was heavily luck based (2.64 ERA is just not sustainable from a 4.50 xFIP), and it was not a big surprise to see him struggle upon being traded. In reality, he’s not that much better than the various #5 starter types already kicking around, such as Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, and Luke French.
So, when people suggest that the M’s should bring in Washburn to fill out the rotation, I’ve been generally opposed. I wanted a guy with more upside, a guy who you would actually want starting a playoff game in Yankee Stadium.
However, there’s been two slight changes to my traditional take on Washburn, as stated above. First, the team signed Bedard, who offers that upside that I’ve been wanting. And secondly, over at FanGraphs, we just rolled out splits for every player dating back to 2002, giving us lots of useful information not previously available. In the course of beta testing the splits, I decided to take a look at Washburn’s page. I knew he had different results versus lefties and righties, and I wanted to see how that looked using FanGraphs metrics like xFIP.
What I found surprised me, honestly. Here’s Washburn’s left/right splits in categories that matter since 2002:
Vs LHB: 2.22 BB/9, 7.31 K/9, 40.6% GB%, 3.93 xFIP
vs RHB: 2.77 BB/9, 4.55 K/9, 34.9% GB%, 5.15 xFIP
We knew that Washburn was more effective against left-handed hitters, but man, that difference is stunning. Nearly 3 full strikeouts per nine innings difference and a higher ground ball rate as well. His stuff works really well against same handed hitters, but he’s just trying to survive against righties. The overall package is a mediocre starting pitcher. But you know what mediocre starters with big platoon splits make? Terrific relief pitchers.
And you know what the Mariners don’t have? Anything resembling a major league left-handed reliever. The bullpen is all righties, all the time, as Wak abhors specialists who can only get a batter or two out before they need help to get out of a jam, and many LH relievers are specialists who can’t get right-handers out. Due to this philosophy, the M’s often are at a disadvantage late in games when they need to get a tough left-handed bat out.
Washburn’s repertoire would work really well out of the bullpen. He’s got good enough stuff against righties to avoid a specialist role that Wak hates, but could give the team a legitimate quality left-handed reliever to complement the Aardsma/League/Lowe/Kelley brigade of right-handers.
Now, Jarrod Washburn isn’t going to sign with anyone to be a relief pitcher, I’m sure. He’s been a starter his whole career, and I’d bet he still wants to be a starter. But with the M’s signing of Erik Bedard, who will miss at least the first 50-60 games of the season, the M’s could offer him a chance to join the team as a starter, reserving the right to move him to the bullpen if Bedard gets healthy enough to return.
In this scenario, Washburn provides potential value in two different roles. He’d begin the season as an innings-eater, allowing the team to get through the first couple of months before Bedard returns, offering that marginal upgrade over Vargas for April and May. If Bedard comes back healthy in June, and Washburn isn’t pitching like he did last year, you try to convince him to shift to the bullpen for the second half of the season, where he would give the team a quality LH reliever – something they just don’t have right now.
In that role, Washburn could actually be a pretty useful part of a potential playoff roster, if the M’s were able to win the division. Think Darren Oliver and what he’s done for the Angels in the playoffs the last few years. That multi-inning lefty who can get tough outs can be very valuable in a playoff series.
As a reliever, Washburn could really help this team in October. And, for the first few months of the season, he wouldn’t hurt to have around, holding Bedard’s spot for him and offering the team some insurance in case the rehab doesn’t go particularly well. He may be overrated by some, but the fact is, now that Bedard is in the fold, Washburn actually makes some sense for the Mariners.
He’d have to fit into the budget, and no one really knows how much the team has left to spend, but if he’s willing to take a couple million to return, I’d imagine the M’s would fit him in. And, for $2 or $3 million, as a insurance policy on Bedard’s rehab and a potential quality LH reliever in October, that’s a good investment.
Let me be the first to say I really like this idea, and I’m an old school Washburn hater.
The logic is there but I think I’m still scared by the past managers sticking with veterans far too long. Here’s to GMZ making another right move.
I’m heading off to bed, but I’m wondering what Vargas/French/Olson’s splits are against lefties. All 3 of those are already on the M’s, and aren’t going to cost anything, basically.
(After taking a quick glance, Washburn is a little better against LHP than all of those, but not necessarily by huge leaps and bounds.)
I’d like to see Vargas get the opportunity to pitch his way in… But this does show the value that Washburn could have… Very interesting.
Man we have a lot of pitchers, considering only 11 of them are going to be there opening day.
I think the biggest hurdle in all of this would be talking Washburn into putting his SP pride aside to move to the pen. Players are often stubborn to admit their faults and take on a role that suits their skills better. I mean Ibanez took pride in his defense…so…yeah…
Don’t some pitching stats improve going from starter to reliever for some pitchers? Any idea how Washburn’s “stuff” would translate? I assume from your post you’d expect the split to persist even if the raw numbers didn’t get any better. However, would you expect him to have better numbers as a reliever? Which ones/how much?
I’m not adept enough yet to ferret out the comparable numbers for League/Lowe/Kelly. I assume that your point is that Washburn’s numbers as a starter are better against lefties (even if he doesn’t get a bump going to reliever) than those guys. How does that comparison look?
Or we could trade him again in the middle of the season for two prospects.
Actually, I really like this idea. It fits in with having lots of options with much of the team.
For most pitchers, their velocity improves upon moving to the bullpen. They don’t have to pace themselves anymore, so they can go max effort for 15-20 pitches, and everything they throw gets a tick or two better.
Velocity increases usually result in more strikeouts, so you’d expect Washburn’s K/9 to improve against both LHBs and RHBs. The other effects would be more subtle, but in general, a pitcher moving from the rotation to the bullpen will shave about a run off their true talent ERA.
So, if Washburn is a 4.75 ERA starter, he’s a 3.75 ERA reliever, or something like that.
As a relief pitcher, he’d be well above average – not a relief ace, but a legitimate setup guy.
On a six man bullpen this would leave one mop-up pitcher (DA, League, Lowe, Kelley, Washburn) right?
Question: At what point does having too many good players in the bullpen start to lose value?
And this is why we would hypothetically pay you the big bucks, Dave. It’s really a fantastic, logical idea. I just don’t know how Washburn would go for it himself. That is the only hurdle to this deal. Otherwise, he’s a rich man’s Darren Oliver, as he was better as a starter.
I just don’t see Washburn agreeing to this type of situation. You’re trying to sell a guy on keeping a seat warm until Bedard,( perpetual arm injury) is ready to give it a go, then shift him to the Pen.
If the Twins, or for that matter any team, offer him a starting job he’s going to take it.
No one is offering him any kind of job. The Twins have about 7 pitchers better than him, and they’re now out of money after signing Hudson.
And, really, you don’t even have to pitch it to him like this. You just offer him a contract and tell him he’s coming to camp as a starter. Then, you let the first two months play out. If he’s not pitching all that well, he won’t have much of a choice but to move to the pen. If he is pitching well, then you probably don’t do it anyway.
That’s the whole point of this article in the first place. It’s been common knowledge for weeks that the Twins and M’s are the only teams interested in Wash anymore, and with the Hudson signing, it would seem that the Twins have taken themselves out of the running.
That would leave the M’s as potentially the only options left, and Washburn with zero leverage.
Yeah. What Dave said.
This really is a genius idea, It works from every standpoint, I’m sure there’s lots of fans that thought Wash was awesome last year, so bringing him back will help with fan support (though, CLIFF LEE, what more could you want). He gives us a pretty decent #4 or 5. Him League Lowe Aardsma could potentially be the best bullpen in the postseason, on top of the best rotation and defense.
I’m not so sure you even talk him into the bullpen during the season, He will be in the bullpen in the postseason regardless, Now we probably would benefit from letting a Kid have his starting slot, but with all are other moves, I don’t think there will be too much “get this guy ML experience” going on this year. If there is though, it wouldn’t surprise me, we can seemingly do no wrong. I’m still not sure I want Bedard back in May though, I want him 100% in the postseason, I realize you got to get there first, but i really hope he serves as our WS insurance, but if he’s healthy he will want his incentives, so not much you can really do.
Long story short, it looks like a no risk, high upside move, so I’m all for it.
This really is a genius idea, It works from every standpoint, I’m sure there’s lots of fans you thought Wash was awesome last year, so bringing him back will help with fan support (though, CLIFF LEE, what more could you want). He gives us a pretty decent #4 or 5. Him League Lowe Aardsma could potentially be the best bullpen in the postseason, on top of the best rotation and defense.
I’m not so sure you even talk him into the bullpen during the season, He will be in the bullpen in the postseason regardless, Now we probably would benefit from letting a Kid have his starting slot, but all are other moves, I don’t think there will be too much “get this guy ML experience” going on this year. If there is though, it wouldn’t surprise me, we can seemingly do no wrong. I’m still not sure I want Bedard back in May though, I want him 100% in the postseason, I realize you got to get there first, but i really hope he serves as our WS insurance, but if he’s healthy he will want his incentives, so not much you can really do.
(Quick question, with postseason rotations usually being 3 or 4 starters, how many pitchers are usually carried? Assuming rosters are still 25 man, 9 bullpen pitchers seems excessive)
Long story short, it looks like a no risk, high upside move, so I’m all for it.
Are the Mariners budgeting as if Bedard’s incentives are all going to be paid? If so, then his signing becomes more expensive in opportunity cost in terms of bringing in another player, if the Mariners don’t want to chance going over a certain number. In this case, Washburn would be the limit of their focus, right?
For Washburn fans:
All Washburn has to do is pitch better then Ryan Rowland-Smith and Ian Snell to maintain a starting job by time Bedard is ready to come back.
When it comes to the playoffs, I am sure everyone is “just happy to be here and hope I can help the ballclub.” mode.
The more I think about this the more I like the idea.
Although, here’s where it gets tricky. Washburn basically has only three options. Twins, Mariners, or Retirement.
The retirement option is not surprising. If it weren’t for Washburn’s first half surge he would’ve likely called it a career after last season. Of course, his run in Detroit probably puts retirement back in the limelight.
It’s going to come down to how badly Washburn wants to contribute with the “good thing we have going here” in the organization. If he comes on board I can’t imagine it being too difficult for him to buy into this plan. Not to mention, Jack Zduriencik seems to be an expert in the art of persuasion.
My sentiments exactly. The M’s don’t need to tell Washburn that he is in the pen the moment Bedard returns. If, for whatever reason, he is the third best starter, he will stay in the rotation. But if he and Snell are basically doing the same job, Wash would be the better option to have in the pen.
All during last year, the announcers kept mentioning that Washburn’s new pitch (the cutter) was why he was performing so well. But looking at fangraphs, it looks like he’s been using the cutter heavily since 2007.
Was the “cutter” different in 2009? Why did the announcers all think this was a new pitch? I assumed they were right and that this was the reason why he was doing better in 2009. I was actually thinking that his improvement was sustainable going forward. But looking back, it doesn’t seem to make much sense. That’ll teach me to trust the TV and radio guys.
I’ve been in favor of signing Washburn for awhile now as long as it was a one-year deal in the $2-4M range. Now that Washburn is just about out of other options it seems like this is doable. If Washburn is pitching better than the other two starters after Bedard returns then keep him in the rotation. If not, then move him to the pen.
Sounds like a plan.
But they already have a much cheaper Washburn, under club control for several years, in Luke French. They don’t need to pay anything to get Washburn quality starts. It’s only the splits that are vaguely interesting.
If the Ms get him, they might as well have him in the pen the whole year, instead of doing a semi-bait-and-switch thing to try to tiptoe around his ego. Either he buys into the team philosophy and what his role should be, and settles into that from the start, or he doesn’t.
So, 2 or 3 million for just a left-handed long relief man? If $2M is the going rate for a quality free agent long reliever, okay…
Dave, doesn’t this scenario work equally well for both Washburn and Bedard? Depending on who is pitching better at the time the other could potentially fill that lefty bullpen role.
What is Wash looking to sign at? I thought I read somewhere that he’s looking for 5-6M?
One might think so, but it’s what the Phillies carried. Keeping in mind that we’re hoping Wakamatsu will go with an 11-man pitching staff in the regular season, I doubt the balance would change in the postseason. One of the arguments for a deep bullpen in the playoffs is that because of the stakes, managers end up using a much quicker hook. You can’t afford to let a guy scuffle at all, and even decent outings tend not to get as deep in the game, since you’re probably facing a really good opposing lineup and the stress load is high.
I dunno. I’m not a fan of this, even if I can see the logic of it if it works smoothly. I’m going to spend some time over at Fangraphs to see if I can find evidence among the newly-released splits to back up my knee-jerk opinion, but here it is.
With the exception of the first half of last season, and maybe a month here and there during other seasons, Washburn was never very good here. There are certainly no guarantees that you’re going to get Spring-early Summer ’09 Washburn instead of ’08 Washburn, who wasn’t very good at really any point of that season (or for much of the two years before that, either). Given the uncertainty over what you’re going to get, and the likelihood that Washburn should see age-related decline creeping in while some of our younger (similar) pitchers have yet to reach the age where we’d expect them to peak, and I am not sure I wouldn’t rather simply roll the dice with one of them.
Washburn’s advanced metrics against lefties is impressive, and it’s somewhat surprising to me to see his splits so divided. But I’m not sure I would assume that he could make an easy transition to a quality LH set up guy at 35 going on 36. If one is to believe what is written, it takes every bit of five days for The Bus to recover enough to pitch again, and the mentality of the roles are different enough that I would never assume immediate success in transition.
All of this speaks to reward (not particularly high, even as an innings-eater as Washburn was always a bit banged-up during his Mariner career, and never surpassed 200 innings pitched) as well as risk. Forgetting about reward here ome here for a second, som have said that this is a low-risk move. I don’t see that. Whatever final move the Mariners make, whether with Washburn or somebody else, has to be looked at in conjunction with the Bedard move. Maybe you could look at either in isolation as relatively low risk (though at least in Washburn’s case, it isn’t really accompanied by much reward, so even “low risk” is risky), but together? Starting to look riskier, especially compared to what you might get from one of the bevy of 5th starter candidates instead of Washburn, for no cost.
I just don’t think I’m buying what you’re selling, Dave.
Washburn to insure Bedard? Good money after bad.
Even extremely good relievers don’t provide all that much value over the course of a full season. It is highly unlikely that Washburn would be “extremely good” as a lefty specialist reliever. Mabye he’ll be good, or even well above average, but for 30 innings… meh. What’s the point? There are 3 other lefties already on the team who could probably do basically the same thing.
Obviously it would be incredible to get Washburn at this price, but it still seems unlikely, even with many of his potential markets drying up.
Becoming a reliever who specializes against lefties might give Washburn strong results in those innings, but I wouldexpect this to reduce his value overall.
One of his big strengths is the ability to pitch a lot of innings. Pitching a large number of innings as a somewhat below average starting pitcher still manages to get him to about 1.5 WAR as a starter. (As a ~1 WAR upgrade over the .5 win we’d get out of whichever of our 5th starters performs the best, that means he isnt worth spending $5M on). But if we move him to the bullpen, his innings go down and the replacement level goes up. Could we really expect a lefty specialist reliever Washburn to be worth more than .5 to 1 WAR? Maybe this works as a backup plan, but I would think that if you sign Washburn, the best use of his is as a starter, you get the most wins out of him that way.
Maybe the Mariners end up with him and use him as a left specialist once Bedard is healthy, because they have enough starters, but this seems like an inefficiency in baseball to me. Some team who needs a 1.5 WAR starter should be willing to pay him $4-5 million, so that we cant get him for $2-3 million as a reliever.
With the exception of the first half of last season, and maybe a month here and there during other seasons, Washburn was never very good here.
Try to think of what your opinion of Mark Lowe would be if they had ran him out as a starter for the last few years. You would hate him, and want him banished forthwith. As a reliever, though, he’s fine, because you can hide his platoon problems. Same deal here.
But I’m not sure I would assume that he could make an easy transition to a quality LH set up guy at 35 going on 36.
Old pitchers move from starting to relief all the time. Relieving is easier. Washburn might need four days off after throwing 100 pitches, but he certainly wouldn’t need it after throwing 20.
Even extremely good relievers don’t provide all that much value over the course of a full season.
It’s not at all uncommon for a good relief pitcher, used in mid to high leverage situations (1.4 LI or so), to be worth +1 win in 60-ish innings. Given that the Mariners currently don’t have anything better than a replacement level LH reliever in the bullpen, they’d get the full value of the upgrade.
It’s worth it.
This team and management has shown the ability not only to deal with the inefficiency in baseball, but to actively abuse it.
You may get the most wins out of Washburn as a starter, if you probably didn’t have 6 starters that may very well be better than him, especially at starting.
Not only that, but let’s say that the M’s are out of the hunt in July… What is one of the most over-valued commodities in MLB? Left-handed relievers. If you can get Washburn to fill that role, you can potentially turn him into trade bait.
I mean, if he’s really successful, the M’s could turn into Savings and Loan millionaires, buying Washburn for cheap, and selling him off again. (Sorry for the 1980′s reference. I managed to not mention Neil Bush, either.)
I really like this idea. Like really like it. If Washburn is spectacularly lucky like last year, he can still stay in the rotation. If he bombs in the rotation, we get to try him out in the bullpen. I think the most likely outcome is the one detailed in the article. If he sucks in the bullpen, we trade him for peanuts. If there’s anything the market loves, it’s a lefty who can start. Worst case scenario, Washburn is icing on a Jose Lopez deadline deal. That’s worth $3M in baseball money.
Well, I went and looked at splits for at least Vargas and French. Vargas sometimes even displays a reverse split, so he probably isn’t a decent comparable.
Now, look at Luke French. People here have tended to dismiss him, because he posted a 6.39 xFIP after coming to the Mariners, but he was better in Detroit (3.92 xFIP). He displays the same kind of platoon split Washburn does/has – a difference of 1.81 in xFIP. Yes, he is worse than Washburn (maybe a half point of xFIP, whether against lefties or righties), but should be expected to be getting better, while Washburn…well, isn’t. The difference in xFIP splits between vs. RH and vs. LH for Washburn has been similar 1.59 in 2009, 1.17 in 2008, 2.06 in 2007, and 0.74 in 2006 (average of 1.39 over four years, and in two of them he was essentially about the same against lefties as French was this year).
So why isn’t French – who was billed as a young Washburn when he arrived here – just as much a candidate for this role as Washburn is, without having to go spend $2M to get a 1st half starter who, against RH batters (the bulk of what he is going to see), is going to look no better and probably worse than any one of the gaggle of potential starters you already have?
I don’t mind the Mariners going out and looking for another starter, but I’d rather they do it in trade for a right-hander. If the big selling point is that Washburn can be a lefty relief specialist, then I guess I’d rather develop his lesser clone, French, in that role.
I think it’s a good idea. I was thinking about it myself, although more in the context of how we are going to replace what Jakubauskas was last year.
I assumed that one of the guys who didn’t make the rotation would step into that role, but Washburn would be better.
According to his agent, he’s comfortable with retiring if he doesn’t get an offer from the Mariners. Sorry I don’t remember where I saw that, but if you are out front and say that his role will depend on how the season develops, I think he might well be happy to come in and just see what happens.
That’s exactly what it is. If Washburn turns back into a pumpkin, the team could still get value out of him in a relief role rather than releasing him.
The other thing, Dave – I realize that throwing 20 pitches at a time provides a different recovery time than 100, and I also realize that starters become relievers all the time. HOWEVER, since we’re talking about a 1-year-deal, we’re talking about Washburn doing it mid-season, and needing to be immediately effective in order for it to work.
As for his injury history, my memory may be selective here, but I seem to recall more leg, back and foot issues with Washburn than arm issues. Mostly back issues, IIRC. Are we really to assume he can make this transition as a 36-year-old at mid-season and fill it well? It’s certainly possible, maybe even probable, but I just wouldn’t assume it is a given.
The M’s have gone all in for 2009. At this point, given their spot on the win curve, they should be more interested in winning than development. French will not have his development stagnated from hanging out in Tacoma until someone gets hurt.
Why *wouldn’t* Wash agree to pitch in relief? Is he likely to find work elsewhere as a starter?
Some would rather walk away than accept a diminished role.
The Saints win the Super Bowl and now Washburn is getting some love on USSM, can the rapture be far behind? After this off-season, I’ll not be surprised if Z can get Jared to sign a reasonable deal. Throw in a clause where he can grow a nice Eckersley ‘stache if he gets moved to the pen. You can never have enough pitching. What if RRS comes down with tendonitis again or Snell can’t find the plate by April? And if the M’s have five better starters and six better relievers coming out of spring I’m sure there’s another club who would want him by opening day. Provided the price is right, you can never have enough pitching!
The logic Dave presents is hard to argue with, but the emotional side of me still cherishes the day when we traded this gasbag elsewhere.
Good riddance. I sincerely hope he either signs elsewhere or retires.
Salk: Well it’s funny you should mention that Brock. It’s funny you should bring that up exactly, because coming up next, I am going to tell you the impossible has happened. Hell may have frozen over. The thing you never thought would be, has been.
Salk: The impossible has occurred, I can’t believe I’m going to say this.
Brock: You are going to go camping in a tent Saturday?
Salk: Well, not that impossible. That’s definitely not going to happen.
Brock: You are going to take an Men’s MMA conditioning class?
Salk: I would have thought that would happen before this.
Colin: You are going to use Velveeta cheese spread this Sunday?
Salk: Come on, that’s just disgusting no one’s going to do that. Velveeta, it’s not even real cheese. Come on Colin, get your head out of your butt that’s not going to occur.
Brock: You just DVR’d on your Slingbox the UW Women’s game with Arizona Saturday?
Salk: No, it wasn’t that either. You were close on that one, but that’s not it. Any other guesses?
Colin: You are applying for a sideline reporter job with a college football team?
Salk: That’s also probably not true.
Brock: Last one, figured it out. Tom McNamara wants you to be his PR media relations guy and you’ve been hired by the Seattle Mariners?
Salk: None of these things are true. Let me see if I can help you guys out. Received on our twitter feed, a message to us, that says:
“Okay, @BrockAndSalk, now that Bedard is back, if Washburn wants to come in for something like $2 or $3 million, I’m fine with it.”
Salk: Who did that come from? None other, than the fast talker himself. Dave Cameron. is now preparing himself for a Jarrod Washburn return. He’s okay with it, as long as it’s only two or three million. He’s ready for it.
That’s not right, there’s some wrong text messages being sent right now.
Starting at 5:00
Why not? Like it has been said all he has to do is pitch better than the 2nd half of the rotation and he can keep his starting job. And if not, it doesn’t hurt us in any way to have him as a late season or post season reliever. And right after he was traded last year one of the things he kept saying was he would like to come back to seattle next year. Plus, unless someone else is going to give him better money why would he NOT want to play on a team with amazing playoff (and WS) potential in a city that WANTS him here. Detroit fans were pissed off at the trade so it makes sense he pitched poorly there.Why WOULDNT he want to pitch behind Felix and Cliff frickin Lee? Could you imagine: Felix-Lee-(healthy)Bedard-Washburn(at the top of his game)-and then who cares at that point? for a number 5? Forget 2001…
Frankly I would rather go get Sherrill from the Dodgers. They were said to be interested in moving his salary. While it is about $1M more than is being tossed around for Washburn, he actually does get right-handed hitters out as well. He’s proven to be very effective at Safeco, and is death to left-handed hitters…
I’m fine with this…IF both Washburn and Boras agree to crawl on hands and knees all the way from SeaTac to the M’s offices and accept six figures.
Don’t forget that they have to alternate crawling across a bed of broken glass and then wading through a pool of iodine.
I mean, come on, if you’re gonna humiliate the guy, go all-in.
I like the idea of using the Blond Beaver as a LRP. The Darren Oliver comp is solid, and Oliver signed with Texas for $3.5 million. Nobody enjoys paying that kind of money for a LRP, but Texas is trying to win the Division and health permitting, Oliver should earn that salary. At the opposite end of the comp spectrum is Mark Hendrickson. Most of his key rate stats mirror the Beav’s and his splits are gradually becoming more pronounced. He’s also the same age and can start in a pinch, though his track record in that department is less appealing. Hendrickson re-signed with the Orioles for $1.4 million.
So, if Oliver and Hendrickson represent the ceiling and the floor for the veteran LRP market, Dave’s suggested retail price for the Beaver ($2-$3 million) neatly bookends the market average of $2.5 million.
But alas, Jarrod Washburn is an underappreciated anchor of a championship caliber starting rotation, and a gritty, hard-nosed gamer, veteran grinder to boot. If Doug Davis can sign a shiny new $5.25 million contract, one can only imagine what Jarrod Washburn is worth . . .
I’m not crazy about this, for a few reasons (which each have caveats):
1) I don’t see Washburn signing a deal like this. If the reports are to be believed, he turned down more than this to pitch for Minnesota, which would seem like a good fit in terms of his geographical desires, at least. And he’s made noises about retiring if the right deal isn’t out there. Sure, that could just be posturing. And Jack’s pulled off other deals I didn’t think were possible, so… maybe it could happen. When subjected to the smell test from Washburn’s side, it just smells a little funny.
2) Dave cites about a typical one run improvement going to the bullpen due to increases in velocity. Does that one run improvement hold up across all pitcher types, or is that more typical for pitchers whose main strength is velocity? For a command pitcher like Washburn, does it apply? Is it likely, for example, that the increase in velocity negatively impacts his control? An xFIP under 3 is solid for a reliever, but if that one run isn’t real for Washburn, is a 4 xFIP better than what we’d run out there otherwise? And that one run improvement assumes he doesn’t just hang ‘em up once he’s moved to the bullpen.
3) This is the least significant of my reasons. I just don’t like the guy. There’s a reason for the nickname “The Bus.” Liking a guy isn’t close to being my #1 reason for wanting a player, but if the reaction to the talent and potential upgrade is, at best, “meh” to begin with, actively disliking tilts the scale that much more.
Are middle relief pitchers typically in ~1.4 LI situations? All in all, I just don’t believe he improves the team by even half a win, and having to be subjected to his whiney ass again just doesn’t seem worth it to me.
Well sure, if someone else offers him a guaranteed starting gig for $4m-$5m, why wouldn’t he take that?
On the other hand, if his choices are whatever we offer him or retirement, then that’s the kind of leverage a Boras can appreciate. There may never be anyone as stupid as Hicks in giving A-Rod $100 million more than his own last offer…but why should we give the Bus even $100 more than we want? If he doesn’t like it, then he can take the retirement option.
I would rather a veteran LH (Washburn) coming in to face Joe Mauer than an unproven player(French). Worst case scenario is that he becomes a set-up guy. Best case is he returns to last seasons pre trade pitcher and with smoke and mirrors guts out a 13 win season.
I’ve skewered Washburn more than once, I’ve probably called him “Washrag” more often than his own given surname in posts.
But this article is exactly in line with my own thoughts on the matter. I’ve no qualms with a Jarrod Washburn keeping Bedard’s spot warm, and then becoming a decent lefty long-relief option afterward (IF Bedard reclaims his post as anticipated).
It’s precisely what I would do if I’m in the GM’s shoes. Just make the money sensible.
If we had unlimited resources I guess I’m okay with the idea of Washburn as a starter/lefty reliever but I’m not sure he’s a better starter than what we currently have (Fister/Vargas) short-term or long-term and I’m not sure he is better (in either price or performance) than free agent lefty relievers still out there (Beimel, Ohman, etc).
Ah yes, the strange mental complex of the professional athlete….
What’s strange about it? If your boss said, “Great job, we’re cutting your pay by two thirds”, you were independently wealthy enough to go “take this job and shove it”, and your job was a mixed bag you were going to have to leave soon anyway, causing you to travel a lot away from family, why not just walk away now instead of waiting for someone to cut you as a spring training NRI in a year or three?
I think Taylor’s being ironic there.
What I found surprised me, honestly. Here’s Washburn’s left/right splits in categories that matter since 2002:
Vs LHB: 2.22 BB/9, 7.31 K/9, 40.6% GB%, 3.93 xFIP
vs RHB: 2.77 BB/9, 4.55 K/9, 34.9% GB%, 5.15 xFIP
I’m curious to see what Bedard’s line is comparable to this. Perhaps, the bullpen scenario would best be suited for him rather than Washburn. Wash eats up more innings than Bedard has. Plus, coming off the injury/surgery can put him in a low-impact role from the pen. And if you get into the politics of it, most likely Washburn gets more money so you leave him as a starter and put the guy who isn’t at the same pay level in the ‘pen.
Sorry if I have repeated some ideas but there are 55 other comments ahead of this and I didn’t want to read through all of them….shoot me
If you go to Fangraphs and enter his name, then click on the splits tab you come up with this page. It’s all there, have fun.
Washburn will not sign for 2 or 3 million, more like 4 or 5. He would retire, then wait until injuries happen. We are not that desperate but someone will be. After over paying for this guy for a long time, only to have him come through in a salary year I say move on. We don’t any Bavasi remnants on this team.