The Battles
With spring training kicking off, we can start to more safely assume that the Mariners won’t be adding any more players, and this is the roster. It’s not a lock, of course, but for now, let’s work under the assumption that the opening day roster is going to come from the guys who are already here. That would give us the following set-in-stone roster, where blank spots are the position battles that we’ll address below.
C:
1B: Casey Kotchman
2B: Jose Lopez
SS: Jack Wilson
3B: Chone Figgins
LF:
CF: Franklin Gutierrez
RF: Ichiro Suzuki
DH:
Backup C:
Platoon 1B/DH: Ryan Garko
Platoon LF: Eric Byrnes
Backup INF: Jack Hannahan
SP: Felix Hernandez
SP: Cliff Lee
SP: Ryan Rowland-Smith
SP: Ian Snell
SP:
CL: David Aardsma
RP: Brandon League
RP: Mark Lowe
RP: Shawn Kelley
RP:
RP:
25th guy:
That’s 17 roster spots essentially accounted for. Maybe you can argue that Hannahan is going to have to fight for his job, but I doubt it. There’s just no real competition in camp for the utility infielder spot. I’d say there’s a good certainty that these guys will open the season in these respective roles, barring injury.
Now, after those guys, there’s a few players who are definitely on the team, but have undefined roles as of now. The two big names not listed above are Milton Bradley and Ken Griffey Jr. As we talked about all winter, it looks like LF and DH will be some kind of job share between a bunch of players, depending on who is healthy and what kind of pitcher the team is facing on any given day. Adding in those two, and we have 19 players who are definitely on the club. That leaves 6 roster spots that are legitimately up for grabs. Let’s take a look at the contenders.
Catcher: Two of Adam Moore, Rob Johnson, Josh Bard
Nothing much new to add here. Johnson’s likely to make the club as long as he proves he’s healthy, but that’s questionable enough that we won’t pencil him for a spot just yet. The other spot comes down to whether the team thinks Adam Moore is ready. If they don’t, then Bard makes the team and splits time with Johnson behind the plate, offering a switch-hitter and the best bat of the three options. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. My gut? Moore goes to Tacoma, Johnson breaks camp as the starter, and the team lets Bard play a few times a week until Moore forces them to call him up.
Fifth Starter: One of Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, Garrett Olson, Luke French, Yusmeiro Petit
Probably the most fluid spot on the team. Vargas and Fister both pitched well at times last year and have to be the leading candidates, but both have fringey repertoires that could easily make them look terrible in Arizona. Olson and French are similar, except for the pitching well last year thing, and Petit is the longshot candidate, especially now that he’s off the 40 man roster. Additionally factoring into this is that the losers of this spot are going to be fighting for a bullpen job, and that the pen is currently 100% right-handed.
I’d say that gives Fister a slight advantage, but as a strike-thrower, he’s also the most likely to be able to soak up the 100 innings that Jakubauskas took last year in the swing role. I’m not sure Vargas could handle that job as well. So, right now, I’d call this a toss-up between those two, with the other three needing to pitch well to avoid a trip to Tacoma.
Fifth Reliever: One of Sean White, Kanekoa Texeira, Ricky Orta, Anthony Varvaro, Josh Fields, Nick Hill
This is an interesting spot that hasn’t gotten as much attention over the winter. White gave the Mariners some good results last year, but he’s both injured and not good enough to be expected to do it again (2.80 ERA, 4.86 xFIP last year). If he shows he’s healthy in the spring, he would be expected to have the inside track, but the M’s have made no secret of the fact that they’re not counting on him to be healthy. So, this spot is up for grabs, with a bunch of rookies behind White potentially fighting for the last middle relief role. Texeira would be the most likely bet as a Rule 5 guy, but the M’s discarded both of their rule 5 picks last year in favor of internal candidates, so who knows. This will be a battle to watch.
Long Reliever: One of Jason Vargas, Garrett Olson, Doug Fister, Luke French, Yusmeiro Petit
The consolation prize for the guys who lose out on the fifth starter’s job. Nothing much else to write beyond what I wrote above.
25th man: One of Ryan Langerhans, Michael Saunders… really, anyone in the organization
This spot is the ultimate wildcard. It could go to a left-handed outfielder like Langerhans if the team is going to play Bradley in left but wants to have a defensive replacement/pinch runner to keep him healthy. It could go to Saunders if he tears the cover off the ball and forces the team to make him their left fielder, pushing Bradley to DH and Griffey to the bench.
Or the M’s could decide to go with a 12 man pitching staff, carrying another reliever to help get the team through the early part of the season when Wak will want to be more conservative with the pitch counts. That could be a lefty if they want to add some balance to the bullpen, or another young guy who forces his way onto the roster like Shawn Kelley did last year.
There are way too many variables in play here to take a guess at who will fill the final roster spot. This spot likely won’t be decided until the last few days of spring.
And, in defense of them, Johnson has only ~1 year of MLB experience.
We didn’t need Willie Bloomquist to suck in MLB for multiple years to discern he was a bad player, either.
In fact…
Bloomquist, lifetime minor league stats: .281/.336/.375/.711
Johnson, lifetime minor league stats: .270/.323/.389/.712
Johnson has a touch more power, but Willie’s a better baserunner.
They’re basically the same type of player: if they’re a bench player for you, fine, but a disaster if they’re getting 400-500 PAs or more.
I love how this has turned into a Rob Johnson thread. The love for Rob Johnson is largely a result of his CERA which lookoutlanding covers extensively here.
I think the organization’s support of Rob Johnson has more to do with him being the best available option, rather than being good. If he was the caliber of Dan Wilson prime, you can add a couple more WARs to the total – but he’s not (certainly not predictably so).
Switching gears slightly, someone mentioned this earlier; should there be an infield injury, who’s the best candidate to backup Hannahan? Like say, (knock on wood) if Figgins goes down?
Apparently, we did. Six of them, in fact.
I’m not sure anything in this thread could be considered “love”. Personally, I favor giving Adam Moore a shot as the starter. I just think it’s too early to judge what kind of player Rob Johnson will be.
I do agree, however, that he’s no Dan Wilson. My personal view is that he will end up being a solid backup.
Since Rob Johnson was born in 1983, this is quite a feat to age an extra year! Way to go Rob!
Check again. Being wrong + being sarcastic = bad combo.
Being wrong + being sarcastic = bad combo
Like Michael Jackson bad?
sha’mon
Apparently, we did. Six of them, in fact.
“We” in this case being USSM and readers, not “The Seattle Mariners”.
But yes, back in the halcyon days of 2002-2003, people were going “hey, give Willie a chance to develop”, despite all evidence that he was what he was- a slap hitting 25th guy.
If solid backup means “Felix’s caddy”, OK.
I’m not sure who’s right: mlb.com or Baseball Reference?:
Rob Johnson from baseball-reference.com
Wikipedia and baseballcube.com also agree with this.
Quoting wikipedia? You just get better and better.
The Mariners media guide has him born in ’82. There’s no reason to believe anything else.
Perhaps we should just ask Miguel Tejada or Danny Almonte.
USA Today said he was 26 last year and that would make him 28 in July.
I wasn’t quoting it – I was pointing out another place with the discrepancy. I also didn’t “believe” either source, although now it appears that mlb.com is, in fact, more authoritative.
I would think age would play a major difference in evaluating players, and deciding the “battles” described in this article.
Since all evidence points to him graduating high school in 2001, then getting drafted as hte 123rd pick in 2004 think it is much more reasonable to put his age at 26 right now.
Also mlb.com lists Rob Johnsons age as 26 here.
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/draftday/y2004/search.jsp?sc=round&sp=4
The ONLY place I have seen it listed as 27 is the one singular Mariners page on mlb.com.
Anyone know for sure? Anyway, I am going with 26 until proven otherwise.
Just a reminder, Rob Johnson is a year and 4 months older than Jose Lopez.
I hope everyone who has written about how there is time for Rob to improve his defense, hit better, and become an above average player has never said anything bad about Jose.
I agree that age is important and it does affect my opinion of Johnson. I was operating on the assumption that Baseball Reference was correct and it appears that it may not be.
RE: the age discrepancy.
It seems that it is a very debatable issue.
B-Ref, TBC, ESPN, Retrosheet list it as 7/22/1983, while MLB, and SI say 7/22/1982.
However, the fact he graduated HS in 2001 with no note in any personal bio about him being held back would put him at 1983 in every state I know the cutoff b/d for.
[spring training puffery grain of salt] Tony Blengino said this afternoon that Cordero is in camp, 26 lbs lighter, arm is finally healthy — never a big velo guy, but stuff is def. crisper.
Does Baek getting a try-out add him to the 5th/Long Man debate?