Prospect Performance of the Year (to date), Part II

JH · April 28, 2010 at 7:06 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

23-year-old manchild Carlos Peguero’s line tonight at West Tennessee: 4-5, 3HR.

Peguero’s now hitting .378/.452/.797 so far this year, with 9 home runs. He’s also striking out at a far lower rate than he did last year (21.6% of his ABs this year v. 35% last year). The past few years, Peguero’s been a lefthanded version of Greg Halman without the athleticism. So far this year, he’s done everything you could possibly hope for out of a young slugger.

Credit to Jay for never fully giving up on Peguero. For my part, I’ll admit I had more or less written him off before the start of this year. It’s early, but he’s back on my radar in a big way.


14 Responses to “Prospect Performance of the Year (to date), Part II”

  1. PBS on April 28th, 2010 7:23 pm

    Trade him before he turns into Wlad Balentien! 😉

  2. spankystout on April 28th, 2010 7:24 pm

    My Oh My! (Do I have to pay copyright fees?)

    What is a conservative projection for Peguero?

  3. Dave on April 28th, 2010 7:30 pm

    That he never makes it out of the minors.

    It’s a month in Double-A. Please don’t go penciling Peguero into any future line-ups.

  4. naviomelo on April 28th, 2010 7:44 pm

    According to Grifol, “He has possibly the best power in the organization.”

  5. spankystout on April 28th, 2010 7:47 pm

    Fully understood, hence me asking for a ‘conservative projection.’
    I checked his numbers out at fangraphs (thanks dave).They weren’t really encouraging. He has a BABIP over .350 the last three years. Even with luck on his side, he K’s in Mark Reynolds fashion.
    I agree don’t ‘pencil’ him in any future lineup at the Majors.

  6. Marinersmanjk on April 28th, 2010 7:48 pm

    He could have the best power in the world but it doesn’t matter if he can’t hit the ball consistently and play defense.

  7. Dave on April 28th, 2010 7:51 pm

    The Wladimir Balentien comparison is a pretty apt one, though Wlad is a better athlete than Peguero. But it’s the same general skillset. A left-handed version may be a better fit for this ballpark, but that’s the kind of player we’re looking at.

    Unless he can sustain the improvements in his contact rate, he’s probably not a big leaguer. Even if he can, he might be a marginal one.

  8. Pat Dillon on April 28th, 2010 7:55 pm

    The Mariners had a guy something like this over a decade ago. His name was David Arias. I hope Peguero doesn’t wind up being a PTBNL.

  9. Marinersmanjk on April 28th, 2010 8:01 pm

    David Arias was also a roid user so who knows how good he actually was.

  10. Pat Dillon on April 28th, 2010 8:11 pm

    David Arias was also a roid user so who knows how good he actually was.

    He and many others.

  11. Typical Idiot Fan on April 28th, 2010 8:16 pm

    I think this line of conversation can end here.

  12. preach on April 28th, 2010 8:30 pm

    Question about BABIP…what is the expected range of deviation from straight average. Basically at what point is a BABIP considered lucky or unlucky? Thanks.

  13. JH on April 28th, 2010 9:55 pm

    Again (and I should have made this clearer in the post), the most I’m willing to say at this point is that Peguero’s back on my radar. He’s not a great prospect by any stretch. He is, though, adapting to Double-A in the early going in a way I never imagined he was capable of.

  14. CMC_Stags on April 28th, 2010 9:58 pm


    As I understand it, the best way to look at the sustainability of BABIP is to look at GB/LD/FB rates and speed.

    Faster players (Ichiro!) tend to have higher BABIP as they can beat out more throws to 1st. Players who hit a higher percentage of LD also have higher BABIP. I believe the rule of thumb was something like LD% + 12% tends to be close to BABIP before adjusting for speed.

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