Game Thirty-Eight Recap
Boo, 14-24.
American League Teams, sorted by winning percentage.
Tampa Bay, .711
New York, .658
Minnesota, .632
Detroit, .579
Toronto, .575
Texas, .538
Boston, .487
Oakland, .474
Anaheim, .450
Cleveland, .417
Chicago, .405
KANSAS CITY, .385
Seattle, .368
Baltimore, .308
When you’re behind the Royals, it might – just maybe – be time to consider making some changes.
Yeah, this roster works. Just keep running Griffey out there – I’m sure his bat will come around any day now. Keep Sweeney around for that oh so valuable leadership that has kept this team on track. Don’t bother with an actual bench, as pinch hitting and pinch running are overrated. Don’t worry about acquiring any one of the hundred or so guys in Triple-A that could improve your roster right now. Just keep sitting there, doing nothing.
Could’t find a good pic of Wak and/or Z? I’m glad I didn’t waste the money and time driving to Oakland…
This is getting flat out embarrassing. What a dud this season and this offense has been.
Dave, why can’t you run the team?
The main question after this stinker, does RRS go to the bullpen or the DL with a phantom injury?
There are way too many problems with the hitters on this team to make it even matter if we have Griffey or Sweeney. Consider this season lost and done. Ugh!
I turned the game off when “Chuck” came on at 8pm, and switched to “24″ at 9pm.
I’m done suffering through these games. Let me know when Jack makes some changes.
Come on, small sample size guys!
Can anyone here swallow their pride a little and say that maybe keeping Sweeney is the better move at this point? Its Jr. who needs to go to the DL or retirement. He left four on base tonight. How many runs did we lose by? This is getting embarrassingly bad.
No major league team has any business carrying either of them. Neither one is a major league player. Both of them suck, and they both need to go away tomorrow.
Dave said:
Tonight works for me.
I was ready to, before he apparently got knocked out for two days because playing three in a row hurt his back.
And yes, we could go and get any one of a hundred Triple A guys to fill holes, but how does that help if we’re already fielding anywhere from three to five guys daily who were in Tacoma within the last ten days?
That’s a bit of a false choice. Sure, Griffey needs to go. But even if you actually believe Sweeney is good when he’s healthy – the fact that his back is keeping him out of games after playing just in a row (as the DH!) should tell you he’s not a good option.
Cut them both loose – right now I’m sure Sweeney will land somewhere.
The only diagnosis I can think of is pitcherus suckitis. The main symptom is an inflammed ERA. The only cure for this disease is a rosterectomy, followed up by a consultation with Dr. Tacoma.
Watch out Baltimore!
Anyone got Turbo’s number??
HA! I did the same thing.
*sigh*
Remember this
Those were the good old days
I tend to agree
It was a rough decision. Suffer through Sims RRRRRrrrrrs and Griffey’s at bats or switch over to two things I’d watch later on TiVo.
Okay, it was an extremely easy decision. Especially with Dave’s twitter updates…
Someone needs to film Dave going on a rant about this team and put it up on youtube and link to it throughout the blogosphere.
Changes need to be made.
Except that our violin is a cheap $50 knock-off that’s missing a string, and the remaining three strings are out-of-tune.
Yup, like John Goodman’s character in Treme.
I don’t even want to watch these dudes try and hit anymore, just bring in SOMEONE else! We’ve been losing anyway.
Who’s Bauer?
So I know when someone’s BATTING AVERAGE is at .200, he’s at the “Mendoza Line.”
Remind me again what it is when their SLUGGING PERCENTAGE is at .200…
(Griffey: .182/.247/.205)
Carlos Silva’s batting line and Griffey’s batting line are not too far off from each other.
The Mencia Line because at that point, it’s just not funny anymore.
Jennifer Hudson sings about Ken Griffey, Jr.
Jack.
Really? We’re blaming this loss on Griffey and Sweeney? I’m sure we can all find someone more responsible for this loss…
Says the guy with “RRS for Prez” as his username…
Ok RRS for Prez, I blame you and your mediocre stuff right down the middle.
Felix should consider placing a quiet phone call to Manny Ramirez so he can ask his advice regarding how best to fake a sore leg to get out of tomorrow’s game.
I think I saw a line on ESPN the other day that showed that San Diego’s pitching staff had a better .OPS than the M’s DH’s…
Is the honeymoon with this front office over or are we to assume Jack Z has a plan that just didn’t include winning this year?
Pardon my French, but who the fuck says we’re only talking about “this” loss?
I was really excited about this team during the winter and was bragging about how good they where going to be this year. My friends listened because I was the educated baseball fan. Now, I look stupid. Thank you to everyone on the 25 man roster for making me look stupid. I will give exception to Felix, Guti, Ichiro! and Cliff F. Lee, but the rest of you guys are a bunch of jerks.
Is it acceptable for the guys on USS Mariner to start talking about other things than baseball? I went fishing this weekend and did really good…
This team reminds me of the movie Major League.
Neither. Jack Z publicly stated that he wasn’t confident this team could win. Whether that’s what he really thinks is up to the individual. That doesn’t mean we get to assume he didn’t plan on it all along.
Jack Z’s a smart guy. He can see the situation in the AL West same as the rest of us.
There’s an app for that.
K Griffey Jr. -.140 WPA
On the pitching side, RRS comes in at -.413 WPA. He’s looking at a demotion to the bullpen, while Griffey continues to be our regular DH batting fifth.
Rob Johnson is the reverse Rube Baker.
I doubt that Sweeney or Griffey are going anywhere.. I would be a little suprised if they actually get rid of either of them.
If they havent done it by now they wont..
Faggins as Wesley Snipes. They should make him do pushups everytime he hits into DP’s.
I don’t care anymore. Release some dudes and bring up some replacements. I don’t even care who they are. I just want to see some new players because the ones we have now aren’t worth a shit.
KBomb. Thanks for the note of sanity here. Yes, the offense sucks historically and Dave is not happy about it. Who is? But giving Sweeney a fair sample size of ABs, assuming he’s up to it physically, is better than any alternative I’m aware Z could bring in. Hate to say it, but Griffey is painful to watch these days and he should give it up while he can still walk around and hit a few golf balls pain-free.
Maybe we should panic, go along with the crowd and fire Wak and maybe even Z. But if we do that, we have to fire Dave as well since he was a strong proponent of almost everything they’ve done. However, since it’s unlikely that any of the three became stupid in the off season that might not be such a good idea.
The team appears to be building a farm system that has the possibility to bring success in the reasonably near future. But without continuity within the organization that success is not likely to happen long term.
A few words about sabermetrics: I first read the Bill James Baseball Abstract in 1977 (to prepare for a Rotisserie League draft) and there’s no doubt his ideas have changed the game for the better. The stats he introduced and which have been refined by others over the years provide an insight into baseball that was only GW (George Bush) gut-feel before he came along.
However, baseball games are still won by outscoring the opponent and while UZR is a nice and important stat, offense is still a huge part of the game. If you don’t score, you don’t win, no matter how good your (starting) pitching is. I know this is a duh, but just thought I’d mention it since we’re seeing it in spades this year.
Don’t know where we go from here, but one thing Wak might consider at this point of desperation is to bump Figgins up to leadoff, hope he starts hitting and drop Ichiro to the 3, thereby asking him to give up some points on his BA to improve the team’s chances to win. Just another thought…
Unacceptable. He knew what the weaknesses were and didn’t address them in the offseason. Could have signed some guys on the cheap like Branyan last year.
So much for getting serious, eh? Perhaps the M’s are getting serious about higher draft picks next year…
By the way, doesn’t anyone else see the handcuffs put on Jack Z and Wak by Armstrong and Lincoln?
I’m in a bar in California. Visiting for a funeral.
I was just laughed at by a couple guys when they saw my M’s hat. FML.
At least the Diamond Jaxx can win games!
Because he was dealing with a bunch of dead weight, a limited budget, and a weak FA market, Jack constructed a roster full of players with glaring weaknesses and distinct strengths who were complimented by other players with opposing weaknesses and strengths. When properly handled, this team could compete at a high level.
Jack put together a team that, for all intents and purposes (on paper, at least), was above average, and could reasonably win more than half of its games this season. No one could predict Figgins and Kotchman slumping or Hyphen tanking.
The key, however, was “properly handled”. Wakamatsu should be ashamed of his bullpen/bench management and lineup construction. Playing Griffey against a lefty-killer, bringing in Colome to pitch the bottom of the ninth in a tie game against the best team in baseball, replacing Brandon League (extreme groundballer) with Sean White (significant flyballer) with the bases loaded and one out with a one-run lead… all of these are examples of Wakamatsu’s incompetence as a game manager this year.
This team was built to compete when properly handled. But sadly, it has been grossly mishandled.
I don’t remember him saying that. What I do is that the team would be competitive.
He didn’t sign until February 19th, missed all of Spring Training and came off the DL on April 20th.
Remember where you’re asking this.
I think Jack Z would have to actually go out and kick a puppy in center field at Safeco, on a Little League day in July, before the local Ms fan blogs give up on him.
I was in the Bay Area today and figured I’d go to the game tonite. Since I was running a bit behind schedule on my way to the Coliseum I turned on the radio. After listening to the first inning, I decided maybe I didn’t really want to go after all.
The worst of it was listening to the Athletics post-game show. The description of the Mariners was laced with derision. “Dog with Fleas”, “more problems than just hitting”, “a team in turmoil” was how they described it. Tomorrow night they are going to have Baker on to describe it in gory detail.
Mind you, this is an Athletics team that is no great shakes. Defensively and offensively they are weak. Two days before Braden’s perfect game, on a Friday night with Fireworks, they couldn’t even muster an attendance of 20K playing the Rays (and losing), while committing 3 errors. So having the post-game show dwell on how “positive” they are feeling about the As now that they beat the Mariners… it’s a bit hard to take. I felt like calling in to set them straight… then I realized that I had nothing to set them straight about.
The reality is that this team could be improved considerably in 24 hours by making some hard choices. The hard part is not figuring out what needs to be done, but rather, figuring out how to do it with dignity.
I wish Seattle sports was more like New York sports, they demand championships, Seattle sports demand mediocrity.
That might alienate the average fan, but would probably only intensify the blogosphere’s love for him.
But yes, your implication is correct. Him turning a horrible team into a decent-to-good team in a year and a half does in fact outweigh him letting a month and a half of the season go by without making a trade that isn’t available.
That puppy was asking for it.
Seriously, though — what? You’ve seen a season of praise and sometimes criticism and this off-season’s pointed and frequent criticism of some moves and that’s not enough? I’m not sure what you want from us, or LL, or whoever you’re mocking here.
Ok, DMZ, as simple as possible: How much further until “In Z We Trust” no longer applies?
I think we can safely say that while “hitting is contagious”, an expression meant for actual hard contact with a baseball, lack of hitting is also contagious.
With a team so marginal on offensive talent in the first place, and with so many guys with something to prove to their new team (Kotchman, Figgins, Ja. Wilson), rookies (Moore, almost Johnson), guys moved to new positions (Lopez and oh, Figgins again), and of course the sucky, OTH vets (Griffey, Sweeney), the vortex of suckdom was a mere stumble away. Once in, the psychological pressure for someone (everyone?) to perform has seriously fu**ed up the whole team.
Except Ichiro, who has always existed in his own alternative universe.
This team can only win if it can hold the opposition to negative runs scored.
Pretty sad when the only thing you can root for is “regression to the mean!!!!”
Amen. This is the point I’ve been making (ok, very clumsily trying to make) on and off for a few days now.
Chris,
“In Z We Trust” isn’t a statement that can be proven true or false like the Mariners will win the AL West. It applies to the people who choose to buy into what the front office is doing, nothing more.
Burn in Hell.
I wish Seattle fans were smarter and would watch the !@#$# game instead of texting, chatting, getting up in the middle of an inning to get garlic fries. But “demanding championships” is a douche move only spoiled-ass fans think makes sense. May we never fail to appreciate a season like 2009 even though our chance of winning the World Series never got above Griffey’s current ISO.
Sorry, not following you. What the heck does this even mean? Do you think the FO did the right things to build the team this year or not?
Shortbus
You seem comfortable with the mediocrity? Fans collectively ‘demanding’ perennial contention is not a douche move. Its more an indicator of the fanbase being conditioned to winning. Losing isn’t tolerated in New York, Boston, LA and Chicago the way it is up here in Washington. And the fans make it known that you must win. The Yankees fans almost ran A-rod out of town because he wasn’t ‘clutch.’ The Seattle fanbase has never turned on a player who produced but wasn’t ‘clutch.’ Once again they don’t tolerate mediocrity, and will vehemently voice their displeasure. While we sit back and just watch.
How hard is that to “follow”? It’s simple: “‘In Z We Trust’ applies to the people who choose to buy into what the front office is doing”–it doesn’t take a highschool diploma to understand that that is the same as “think the FO did the right things build the team this year”.
Apparently, in your perfect little ideal world, budgets don’t exist, star players are aplenty and available for a pittance, and slumps are entirely predictable.
I can’t believe I’ve given up on the season so early.
Prove me a dumb ingrate…. somebody!
Batting title, 250+ hits, 50+ stolen bases by Ichiro is all I’m hoping for now. 100 Runs Scored? With this team? HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-ha-ha!!!!!!!!!
I like Wak, I get that batting order doesn’t matter much, and I realize the bottom of our lineup sucks. But the more he runs out a lineup with Griffey in the middle, especially against a LHP, the more I wonder if he’s really the right man for the job.
Griffey and Sweeney are both wavering between clean up hitter and retired. Somehow that doesn’t make sense.
The way Nero plays the fiddle is divine.
You asked when “In Z We Trust” no longer applies like there is an agreed upon list of things that would cause fans to lose trust in the organization. It’s going to be different for everyone. To give a real life example, some might lose trust if they simply suspect their significant other of cheating, while another might still keep the faith even after an affair. There is no set answer to your original question.
The post’s heading says that this is a game recap. I generally agree with the views on Griffey and Sweeney expressed here. However, on a day when your starter coughs up 7 runs in 2.2 innings while the offense actually manages to score 4 runs, the shortcommings of our DH platoon do not seem to be the story of the game.
Me too. I was willing to drink the kool-aid but here comes another stiff back. Time for Sweeney to go away if he can’t play when needed.
Apparently some people seem to want to fire a man who has made more good moves than bad ones. I am down, dejected and frustrated but I still trust Z until I see him making dumb trades and signings ala Bill Bavasi.
For the people crying about Z’s performance (yes, he does get blame for parts of this roster, but the manager deserves more simply because he won’t adapt his “belief system” to some semblance of reality) we have a SP, RF, 2B and CF who are signed for a long period of time. A great majority of our players are signed for 1-2 years. We have long term flexibility in that we are NOT tied to many grotesque salaries. When Z is signing washed up fools like Batista to 3 year/27 mil type contracts THEN we can call him foolish.
Until then, I still have faith in our GM. The same GM who stole Gutierrez and Vargas from the Indians and Mets for a pittance. He’s the man that brought us Cliff Lee for 3 prospects that may or may not work out. He was able to dump useless Carlos Silva for a player we all felt would work out (and still may). Sure, Morrow for League is looking a bit dodgy but c’mon, he’s been a good GM.
Ditto beadyeyes123
Don’t forget Wak is a Zduriencik hire too.
Yes, he has. I’m looking for better than good. I want solid decisions year after year, no stupid things like we’re seeing now that just can’t be reconciled with the smart moves he made before. I want him to build on the great moves he made last year, not…
…well, let’s put it this way. We were pretty excited about Lopez and Yuni after their rookie years too. So we’ve been down that road before. I hope we’re not on it again.
This team reminds me of the movie Major League
I guess all this team needs is a giant Cardboard Cutout with 75 removable pieces that when removed reveal a scantily clad Ken Griffey Jr to get them going.
Make it Happen Jack Z!!!
“I guess all this team needs is a giant Cardboard Cutout with 75 removable pieces that when removed reveal a scantily clad Ken Griffey Jr to get them going. ”
That is an awesome idea.
I could see even Griffey getting a kick out of this. Ichiro should call Griffey’s wife and see if she has a pic of Griffey in a speedo or something. Would get Griffey back for all the tickles. Ichiro hates being touched, so I can’t imagine he actually likes the tickles, rather doesn’t say anything bad about them because of his respect for Griffey. I remember one quote where Ichiro said something to the effect of “If anyone else were to do that, I’d punch them in the face.”
Task #1: Figure out what’s wrong with Chone Figgins and his approach at the plate. This team should be generating runs in the first inning behind Ichiro, Figgins and Guti…putting pressure on the other team and giving our pitchers the confidence to pitch to contact and let our defense take care of business. Too often, it’s the fourth inning and we’re getting blanked…and a one run deficit seems insurmountable. This team was hoping Bradley would help, but it was counting on Figgins…and something is definitely wrong.
Task #2: Stop purposefully fielding an undermanned team. If we have a roster filled with rather fragile position players, we can’t have a seven man bullpen and we can’t have two DH’s who not only can’t run or field but can’t hit. Why are we purposefully hamstringing ourselves when we already have a team with a very thin margin for error? What happened to the appreciation for “flexibility” that was so touted last season?
Task #3: Change the marketing. “Believe Big” is dead, shouldn’t have been green-lit in the first place. The emphasis on Griffey’s second victory lap is NOT bringing in the fans. Don’t ever make baseball decisions dependent on marketing plans, especially when they’re proving to be irrelevant and unproductive. More bobbleheads, so what?
Also, those funny ads tend to rub salt in the wound when nobody that follows the team really feels like laughing.
Task #4: Demand that the on-field management is as solid as it can be.
Z deserves more trust than Wak does, based on what they’ve done and how well we understand why they’ve done it.
If you’re not going to have a McLaren-esque meltdown, Wak, that’s fine. It proves you won’t panic even under the worst situations–that’s a valuable skill. Here’s the thing–you’ve got to then intelligently address the issues that the team is facing…and not just sweep them under the rug and pull the comfy sofa of positive cliches over them.
It’s not enough that these players are “working on” what they’re supposed to be doing. It’s not enough that you’ve got a belief system and you’re sticking with it. It’s not enough that it seems like all the breaks keep going against us but that there’s still positives to take from yet another hope crushing defeat.
As an example: Why is Jose Lopez hitting clean-up for you so often, Wak? Is it because you feel you have no other options or do you have some unexplainable reason for doing the indefensible?
You can’t both be the unemotional tactician AND the guy who always just goes with his gut feelings about a guy. Frankly, we’d rather count on you to do what’s smart–that way, if it doesn’t work…it was at least based on the right approach, and statistically you’ll eventually win out.
We, as fans, can accept unlucky. What we have a harder time with is stupid.
Task #5: Figure out the base-running/third base coach issue. This team can’t afford to make mistakes or have mistakes made for them. (See the above comment about being either unlucky or stupid.)
It does feel like everything’s gone off the rails, but I’m neither giving up on Z nor am I giving up on being an M’s fan. This year might not end up being what some of us were lead to expect…but I think this team is up to their tasks, to make of it what they can.
well on the bright side were heading to a very high pick in a supposed talent filled draft in 2011.
I’m laughing at all you guys. I endured the 1958-1961 Phillies. Next to them, the 2010 Mariners are the Big Red Machine.
This is baseball, people. Shit happens. Good teams lose. Bad teams win.
90% of the problem with this team is that players aren’t playing as well as everyone projected them to play.
8% is the Griffey/Sweeney thing, which is a weird clubhouse chemistry, uniquely Seattle, sort of issue. I have a real hard time blaming Z for it. Even that issue, though… Look at what the popular affordable alternatives – Branyan, Nick Johnson, Garko – have done. Nothing. How many more games would the M’s have won with those guys? Approximately zero.
2%, at most, is Wak’s poor in-game decision-making.
I know it feels good to try to blame an individual or a few individuals when something goes wrong. Scapegoating is the American way. But it’s inaccurate and it ignores the facts.
Losing isn’t tolerated in New York, Boston, LA and Chicago
Chicago? The Cubs draw great every year even when they suck. That’s a terrible example.
Also, news flash, the M’s fanbase ISN’T supporting a bad team- in the sense that the salad days of 3 million+ attendance are long, long gone. (At this rate, this team might not break 2 million.)
Yes, he has. I’m looking for better than good. I want solid decisions year after year, no stupid things like we’re seeing now that just can’t be reconciled with the smart moves he made before. I want him to build on the great moves he made last year, not…
So, would you fire Billy Beane if you were the owner of the Oakland A’s, considering his last few years have been nowhere near what his first few years were like, and the A’s haven’t won a playoff series under him?
We were pretty excited about Lopez and Yuni after their rookie years too.
We were excited about Lopez hitting something like .220 with no power in 2004-2005? Really?
During the game I heard Blowers describing Buhners hitting in a way that is missing from the Mariners. I am not talking about power but the desire to drive in a run at whatever cost. The Rays have it – .250 BA but .313 with men in scoring position. What he said was Bone would flick the ball into right field rather than go for the homerun. The run driven in becomes more imporant than swinging away. Rememeber one year Buhner had the same number of hits as RBIs even towards the end of the season. You dont see that with these guys. Griffey is GIVEN the allowance to get hits by the shift but ego doesnt allow him to keep from swinging away. Lopez does the same thing over and over. Only person that seems to use the best approach is Guti. Okay I feel a little better! I do believe in a trickle down effect but if you cant get it together when Ichiro and Guti keep showing you how I just dont know. Now the teams become tougher and no cushion.
Everything that could go wrong has EXCEPT the starting pitching from Fister and Vargas has been phenomenal to this point!!
I’ve personally never been more excited–but realistic–about a season, and I’ve had it.
I can’t take anymore Shannon Drayer being a sycophantic lackey for prima donnas like Suzuki (“…the front office would first need to engage him in a series of conversations before moving him out of batting first…”) and Griffey (NapGate).
I can’t take watching Wak refuse to put in the right matchups to just give us a legitimate chance.
I can’t take Griffey’s puffed-out chest re: his embarassing refusal to hang them up.
I can’t take management’s stubborn refusal to do SOMETHING and their refusal to support LaRue’s right to be in the clubhouse.
And, I can’t take the other 24 players’ refusal to not stand up and clean Sweeney’s clock when given the chance.
What is really sad is that in last nights lineup, only 3 guys were hitting over .200. !! Think about that. 6 of our 9 batters are hitting below .200! Not .250, but .200
I’m troubled by how poorly Figgins is playing (or more accurately batting). While I understand regression to the mean, law of averages, and normal variance, this stretch of putrid hitting by our marque free agent signing is really troubling. At what point should we start to suspect there is something physically wrong with Figgins? i.e. a hip problem, a sholder issue, an oblique, etc…, his ‘eyes’ at the plate are still working as supported by his walk rate, but his abilty to generate hits isn’t, could it be a physical issue? Is there some thing wrong with him that is causing his BABIP to be so low?
I knew in my heart that no team could succeed with a manager who habitually uses the word ‘dialogue’ as a verb.
Some of these roster decisions (or non-decisions) seem to have the stink of Lincoln/Armstrong all over them.
“But “demanding championships” is a douche move only spoiled-ass fans think makes sense.”
Wow … yeah, I’m just there for the garlic fries? Whatever.
All you people dumping on Wak need to remember that he was 35-20 in one-run games a year ago and that team was not an offensive juggernaut either. Did he just get stupid?
Last night he had Langerhans, Sweeney, and Johnson injured on the bench. Tui hadn’t played much (Wak doesn’t get credit for the HR, of course-that belongs to Davis) and Griffey had gone 2 for 6 against lefties. Gotta take anything you can get. Sure, Michael Saunders could have been in there instead, but with Langerhans banged up Wak probably didn’t want to lock an outfielder into the DH spot.
The fact that Griffey is no longer an outfielder complicates matters.
And it didn’t matter because RRS blew up again, which is also Wak’s fault, right?
It is so obvious, this finger-pointing at the manager when things go south. Almost as bad as firing the hitting coach.
Yeah I’m not a big fan of the “demanding championships,” “losing the world series means that your season was a failure” style of following a team. Sure I want the M’s to be better, but also I know that we don’t have 11,000,000 people in the Seattle metro area and we can’t sell seats for $2500 a game and have people buy them.
The M’s tried a high risk/high reward strategy and it blew up this year. We knew this was a possibility going into the season, so we regroup and see what we can do in 2011.
First, I said I didn’t have a pitchfork out yet. Second, I wasn’t aware of Beane making any inexplicable roster decisions recently. Maybe they’re there though and I just don’t follow the A’s closely enough.
Beane found and exploited an undervalued skill-set (OBP) for his early success. He also got a bit lucky with the Big Three, who were remarkably injury free throughout their Oakland careers.
Well, the rest of the league discovered OBP too and it’s not undervalued any more. Beane hasn’t found his second trick yet, and has been a little unlucky recently with injuries.
So I’d be patient with Beane, past success matters. But the more current Bad Process there is, the more it makes you wonder if the past was Deserved Success or Dumb Luck.
I’m still assuming the M’s turnaround last year was Deserved Success, but the misery we’re suffering this year is more Poetic Justice than Bad Break.
Right – I can’t find the link right now, but I remember Dave running some numbers a while back and suggesting that either a great outcome (e.g. 90+ wins) or a bad outcome (e.g. 70-75 wins) was much more likely than another middling season.
Obviously, we all hoped for the former, but at this point, it’s looking much more like 75 wins is optimistic.
If last night was the first wacky lineup, I wouldn’t be worried about it.
It’s possible there’s more than one person to blame for this mess. Thing is, it’s a lot easier to replace the manager than the second baseman. Or the GM. Usually, like firing the hitting coach, that doesn’t really solve the problem. In this case, I dunno. Players not performing is still the bigger problem on this team, but Wak’s bad decisions have had a material impact on the record.
It goes back to an earlier post about how thin the margin of error is with this team. One run games are mostly luck, but that assumes reasonable strategies and personnel involved. Losing a one run game because Aardsma got burned is bad luck. Losing one because the 10th best (healthy) reliever in your organization was on the mound in the bottom of the 9th is not bad luck.
I think the Lee trade hedges our bet a little. For some reason I feel a haul coming in for him. Hopefully on offense.
I don’t think I’d fire Billy Beane, but I’d want to see progress for sure.
After three years in a row with fewer than 80 wins, if I were the A’s owner I’d want to know if his perception of what assets were undervalued had changed, and whether he planned on changing his acquisition strategy to match. You don’t get a lifetime contract for being an innovator if others then eclipse what you can do with those innovations.
I agree with that, at least Sweeney can still hit a little bit and has some use. Griffey has just plain lost his ability to play baseball. Sad to see.
Eric Chavez has been their primary DH up until recently.
GOD, you people. Remember the whole 2007 thing? Bad process, good outcome? Well this season has been been good process, bad outcome. It happens. Those of you who are losing your trust in Z are being, frankly, immature.
Did someone really claim that NYC, LA, Boston and Chicago demand championships and that’s why they sometimes win championships.
When have the Cubs won a title? Did the city of Boston collectively take a nap for 50+ years and not demand wins? Did they will the ball through Buckner’s legs cause they just weren’t passionate enough?
Also, are Diamond Back fans more passionate? Or Marlin fans?
Just because a city has passionate fans, doesn’t mean they must or will have on field success. In fact, more often than not they won’t win a championship (just wanting it more isn’t enough. I could rant on how people thank Jesus for helping them win, without a metaphorical tone at all) There’s a lot of factors that play into a successful team/season and in most cases the front office and product on the field is more culpable than everything else combined.
Well this season has been been good process, bad outcome.
Sort of.
For example, Figgins is good process, bad outcome. The theory behind signing him was a good one, it just isn’t producing the expected results. Lee was also a good process decision that got off to the unexpectedly late start because of the injury.
The problem isn’t that — those things happen, you kick the ground and curse quietly to yourself about the bad luck, and you move on.
It’s the decision to bring back Junior and Sweeney, which are bad in both process and results, that is frustrating. It’s the decision to combine that with an expanded bullpen that further limits flexibility that is also both bad in process and results, that is frustrating. Had those moves been reversed in March, it might not have resulted in the M’s being in first place right now, but it would have diminished the frustration at watching them struggle now.
I don’t mind watching a losing team that’s the unlucky result of a good process/bad results situation, because I figure that eventually everything will even out. With this team, that’s mitigated because when I see the pair of aged DHs and a bullpen with more people than showed up at the Orioles-Royals game last night (or at least it seemed that way on the broadcast), I feel like I’m watching a team that’s driving with the emergency brake on and stubbornly refusing to switch it off so they can really pick up the pace.
***Rolls Eyes*** Can you Ichiro haters stop already. He gets it done in the #1 spot and switching him with Figgy is not going to work out as well as some seem to think.
This might have been covered already but I’ve been so busy at work I haven’t been paying attention. Of course, I agree with all the talk on Griffey and Sweeney but another thing that comes to mind is Figgins.
With the season looking so bad, why not switch the 1-2 order? Figgin’s OBP isn’t bad but his BA is and every time I see him, it seems he hits into a DP. Am I just suffering from small sample size / my eyes playing tricks on me or could this help?
And what to do about RRS? Should they just flop Snell and RRS? Probably 6 of one, half dozen the other?
Amen. Not only the fact that some are fragile but if we have zero bench flexibility due to bad hitting from the regulars and you are getting solid innings from 4 of your 5 starters, why are we holding onto a useless relief pitcher?
I did not forget that and I still have no problem with it. I will call out Wak for bad lineups and this belief system that needs to adapt to reality but overall I am not calling for his head SOLELY because he was a great manager last year.
I should rephrase my statement, Z is a great GM and I dare you to tell me who we should have hired (or can hire) over him. Kim Ng? Would she be doing much better???
Coulda Woulda Shoulda…frustration seems to breed this kind of tone. Let’s see if he fixes the problems instead of saying he should be canned or he isn’t great or whatever nonsense that seems to be spewing out in frustration.
I’m still assuming the M’s turnaround last year was Deserved Success, but the misery we’re suffering this year is more Poetic Justice than Bad Break.
I’d have to say yeah. Carrying Griffey AND Sweeney on a roster where you have two often-injured “regulars” (Jack Wilson and Bradley) was asking for trouble, especially given that once Hannahan went out the M’s basically had nothing at SS.
How bad is Griffey for the team?
6 most at bats on the team, 4th worst OPS.
Dave,
I’m seeing that there’s turmoil between Hanley Ramierez and the Marlins. I know it’s improbable, but do we even have the resources to trade for a player like him? What would we have to give up? Would it even be worth it?
It’s funny what raised expectations will do. The team overachieved last year, is underachieving this year, is .500 overall in the two years, and people are going crazy. The overall direction is still on the plus side, but because we have been tantalized by the possibility of playoffs (made more frustrating because of the weakness of the division) everybody is wak-ed out. We say things like the manager is now a dunce, Z isn’t trying to improve the team, the Rays want to drive in runs more than the Mariners do, etc. Dave’s high-risk/high reward analysis was spot on, and this is what happens when the risk kicks in. The team went a month without Cliff Lee, has gone several weeks without its #4 hitter, is currently without its shortstop, and has five or six people hitting under .200. Roster moves can change some of it–the seven man bullpen should be reduced, but it isn’t like Adrian Gonzalez is coming to save the season.
Basically, Lee gives the organization a chance to add some offense for next year, probably in the form of a couple of younger players who need a chance, Franklin Guiterrez style. Combine with Saunders, Ichiro, Guiterrez, a regressed Figgins and Bradley, the retirements of Griffey and Sweeney, and you have the makings of something a bit better in 2011. Maybe Ackley contributes at second and Figgy goes to third. I don’t see Lopez or Kotchman as Mariners next year, and Adam Moore had better figure some things out this year or the team will have to find a catcher. Finding a Branyan-style first baseman who is merely adequate in the field but carries some clout at the plate seems doable in the offseason.
If that sounds like giving up on 2010, what other expectation can we have at this point? It was always a strong possibility that this roster wouldn’t work even without the double headed DH. The slumps have just made it happen sooner than anyone expected. No one wanted to give up on the playoff dream this early.
Thank goodness. Since “clutch” isn’t a skill it’s stupid to turn on a player for not having it.
Xteve X…I doubt anyone on this blog is the kind of fan that irks me at Safeco. I expect everyone here is actually there to, you know, follow the game.
I stand by the notion that we don’t want to be a spoiled-rotten fanbase that hounds good players because, for whatever reason, they didn’t take us to World Series glory. Basically the theory behind this behavior is that by being a total asshole, you can get what you want from your team. I call that “douchey.”
Seattle fans need to become more knowledgable, need to cheer harder when the game is close, and do the wave less when it isn’t. But we don’t need to be bigger jerks just because we think it will help Chone Figgins hit better.
What I can’t stand is the people who think that Ichiro is being selfish by continuing to hit 1st. How does it help us that much to move him down and get him fewer at-bats? Who’s going to get on base in front of him? I can name three things that are not the problem for us this year. Ichiro, Guti, Cliff Lee. Don’t mess with them, as they’re part of the solution, not part of the problem. Felix for the most part has also been fine, as long as whatever the problem is from the last 2 starts is remedied today.
Dave’s high-risk/high reward analysis was spot on, and this is what happens when the risk kicks in.
There is a difference between high risk/high reward and high risk/no reward. The latter, I think, is the cause of most of the frustration here. Most people get that the team made some moves that should have worked out but haven’t … the reason Junior and Sweeney get most of the criticism isn’t that it’s their fault that the team is struggling, but that there doesn’t seem to be any chance that they will be a part of the solution and there is no upside to them being around.
Not sure if you’re talking about me, but I didn’t infer that he is being selfish. I’m just looking at Chone’s OBP and thinking that Ichiro is a better hitter. One space down in the order is not going to drastically change his PAs, especially if he isn’t hitting into DPs and Chone is getting on-base.
And Chone CAN get on-base. He has a 320 OBP. And this might be simple-minded but what changed for him from last year to this year? He went into the 2 hole. Is that messing with him? I don’t know but something isn’t working…Why not try it out?
Isnt that the truth? The best you can hope for with Figgins is that he WALKS to get on base. It’s really awful to look at the OBP and realize that after Ichiro and Gutierrez, the next best guys in that category with any ABs are Sweeney, Bradley and Figgins. CMON! Any batting order changes are merely rearranging deck chairs.
I’m usually not this blunt, but Ichiro haters are completely stupid. You want him to hit 3rd, go ahead and justify your position. Call him a prima donna, and provide some evidence.
I think you’ll have an easier time finding an argument for batting him third than proving he’s a prima donna.
That’s because the latter has no evidence to back it up whatsoever. It’s stupid, and I hope that the next time you look that hall-of-fame gift horse in the mouth, he bites your face off.
The times when the M’s struggle and Ichiro excels are known as “Blame Ichiro Time.” And aside from a couple of seasons, most of the time is “Blame Ichiro Time.”
One of the other things about Ichiro batting 3rd is that he get’s a heck of a lot of ground outs. 3rd worse ratio of GO/AO on the team. He has one of the worst GO % on the team at ~33%. The only reason we don’t notice it is because he has a good BA and doesn’t have anyone ahead of him.
It seems odd that there’s no mention about whether we should have been a bit more cautious with our expectations for this year’s team.
The Mariners were outscored by 52 runs last year yet had a winning 85-77 record to give the (false) appearance of a better than average team.
The Mariners were incredibly lucky in 1-run games with a 35-20 record last year. Make that .500 in those games (28-27) and they end up right at their pythag expectation.
The Mariners had a fantastic defense last year to help balance the weak offense. Dave estimated our defensive production would drop by 40 runs this season.
And the Mariners didn’t make any blockbuster moves over the winter that improved the team’s poor run production.
Maybe instead of Griffey and Sweeney and Wakamatsu and catchers that can’t catch and the 12 man bullpen and the inflexible bench players – the real culprit is the unattainable expectations that snowballed on this blog for what was probably never a playoff caliber team.
The result is the angst and depression that we’re seeing now.
Hey guys. I’m not sure where you got me blaming Ichiro! I love the guy. Favorite part of the team. I have seats on that side so I can see him more. There is no blame here and I’m totally willing to concede that this might just be arranging deck chairs as I’ve seen Figgins lead off innings with a groundout many many times. It was just a thought based on OBP and also that Ichiro’s numbers show he hits into fewer DPs.
Can I suggest changes without having to blame somebody? Yes, get rid of Sweeney and Griffey, but maybe the order can also be adjusted. I don’t see how doing one changes why you do another.
I suggested Ichiro! batting 2nd, not third
Someone made the point earlier, There are really over 100 Triple-A hitters or MLB bench players that could really help this line-up…
So true, and it would really cost us nothing. My example is that Toronto. They really needed a leadoff hitter (and have for years), so what did they do. They traded for Fred Lewis for *future considerations. Now is Fred Lewis, Ricky Henderson? Of course not. But has he stabilized their lineup and filled a huge need? YES! It’s not that hard to do.
There is no way guys like Josh Wilson, Tui, Kotchman, Langerhans, Jr., Sweeney or every catcher that’s been behind the plate should be on a MLB roster at their stage of their careers. Some too early (Tui, Moore, etc.) some too old (Jr. and 4-6-3). But either way this is ridiculous.
My suggestions: try to get catcher Ryan Doumit from Pittsburgh. He’s a young, switch-hitter catcher, who happens to also be from Washington. He has a lot of talent but is not as hot in their org. due to injuries in the past slowing his progress.
Also here’s a list of other good bats that either are on the bench of other teams, or are splitting playing time that good be easier to get:
OF-Corey Hart, Mil., Matt Diaz, Atl., Luke Scott, Bal., Jeremy Hermida, Bos., Xavier Nady, Chi., Austin Kearns, Cle., Seth Smith, Col., Delmon Young or Jason Kuebel, Min., Marcus Thames, NYY, Jack Cust, Oak., Ryan Church, Pit., Matt Stairs, SD, , Jermaine Dye, FA,
INF-Mike Lowell, Bos., Mike Jacobs, NYM., Jim Thome, Min., Willie Aybar or Hank Blalock, TB,
What a list huh??
I think the GIDP stat is flawed if you are considering moving the Batting Order with a leadoff because let’s be honest, Ichiro probably hasn’t had that many people on base to screw into a double play.
Whatever they do, Kotchman shouldn’t be allowed to swing at anything if there is a runner on first.
I need to go find the post but I believe Matt wrote something on LL about the GIDP with Ichiro and even taking into account what you just said, he’s less likely to do it – maybe because of his speed, he’s more likely to gound out into a fielder’s choice than a DP. Chone seems to ALWAYS GIDP.
Looking at possible lineups, here’s what I consider the best option;
Suzuki-Bradley-Guiterez-Saunders. Bradley and Guiterez both have much lower GO/AB and Saunders has one of the better AVGs on the team. But that’s just kind of sad isn’t it?
He’s too busy running Great Britain.
Is this the longest blog by time elapsed?
Whatever they do, Kotchman shouldn’t be allowed to swing at anything if there is a runner on first.
Contrary to popular belief, Lopez is the one you need to be most angry at about GingIDPs.
Lopez hits in the heart of the order more frequently, and has 6 GIDPs to Kotchman’s 2. Kotchy also has a wOBA over 30 points higher.
Blame Lopez.
Hey Pgreyy: You nailed it!
Clearly the marketing dept. is more important to Armstrong/Lincoln then the baseball dept. For example, Saturday marks the third Griffey promotion this year at Safeco Field-and the season isn’t even 40 games old!
Perhaps that’s why Griffey made his decision to return so early, because Armstrong wanted to green-light Adamack and Co. to go full-bore with a 2010 campaign centered around Griffey and 1995.
Someone else said it but it’s worth repeating. Did Mariner calendars stop on Dec. 31, 1995? Must we continue to live vicariously in a time-warp that didn’t even produce a league championship? Most organizations, after all, have several moments like the Edgar/Junior double in 1995.
Alas it’s the same-old same-old in Seattle. Chuck Armstrong’s fingerprints (which will never be found on a World Series ring) continue to hinder the baseball dept. Instead of grilling Wak, how about we grill Chuck Armstrong? He’s been here since 1982 (1982!!!!) and we’re no closer now to a championship than the day he began. Yet it’s never his ass on the line. The man has proven time and again he knows nothing about baseball while also proving incapable of keeping his nose out of business of the talent evaluators’.
Tried to edit but I was too late. Typo. Edit:
Loafie has 6 GIDPs to Kotchman’s 4. Not 2.
The sad truth is that this team isn’t going anywhere. Since 1978, I can only find one example of a team starting off 14-24 and ending up with a winning record: The 1989 Toronto Blue Jays ended up winning the east with a 89-73 record. The 1980 Atlanta Braves ended up at 81-81. Every other team finished with a losing record, and the average number of wins was 69. In order for this team to make the playoffs, they will have to generate a comeback of historical proportions.
Actually I said perennial contention. You can’t buy a world series. But you can buy a contender. Learn how to comprehend simple sentences before posting. And yes the Chicago Cubs have been in the playoffs a hell of a lot more than the M’s. Which makes them contenders. The White Sox won a ring a few years back. What the hell have the M’s done? Oh yeah……nothing.
The Cubs have been to the playoffs 4 times since 1990. The Mariners have been to the playoffs 4 times since 1995.
If you want to go further back, the Cubs have been to the playoffs 6 times since World War II, a rate of once every 10.6 seasons. The M’s have been 4 times in their history since 1977, a rate of once every 5.5 seasons. So for the past 60 years, the Cubs have experienced twice as much seasonal futility as the M’s.
The White Sox, though they have 1 WS win, are a worse example because they have been to the playoffs 6 times since 1920.
Your arguments come off better if they’re accurate, even disregarding the jerk-factor of your (or anyone else’s) posts.
Joe Posnanski posted an article about pressure in different markets if you want to check it out.
If you disagree with me that is ok. But me, obviously overstating the Cub’s accomplishments doesn’t change the original idea.
Demanding contention doesn’t yield contention though. Maybe this is just narcissism on your part but fans can’t force the front office to listen to them, to make the right moves, to play the right players, and make the players perform better on the field.
And there are obvious teams that are in contention constantly that have a fan base that is composed of idiots (Phillies fans prefer Kruk to Schmidt and vomit on opposing fans), or non existent ones like the Florida Marlins(Kidding, sort of). The Oakland A’s post 1991 didn’t bring in fans again until they started competing again.
Of all the factors of contention, fan pressure has to be the least important because of the success teams have without out it or in spite of it. Contenders generate fans, fans don’t generate contenders.
Oops, wrong folder
Entering this season two things were stuck in the back of my mind. 1, we did nothing to fix our offensive malaise of 2009. And 2, why trade for Lee without addressing #1. There is still time to finish with a decent(.500 or better record) but that time is quickly being lost. We were lucky last year to have a winning record after being outscored by 59 runs, to rely on that same luck again this year was pure folly. Elias did a study that covered the last 100 years and found that if you win a prepoderance of one run games one year, it corrects itself the next. To summarize no luck next year, we are finding that to be oh so true. Make a trade, or promotion; try something anything please before the entire season is lost.