It’s Get Serious Time

Dave · May 17, 2010 at 10:07 am · Filed Under Mariners 

At 14-23, the Mariners need some good news. They’re not going to get it from looking at their schedule, though. Over the next month, the Mariners play 29 games, with only seven of those coming against a team that is currently below .500 (the Angels). They have to play the Twins four times, the Cardinals three times, and the Rangers four times. They finish the stretch with 20 consecutive games without an off day.

There are no more games against the Royals or Orioles to look forward to. The M’s face a pretty grueling schedule for the next month, the kind of gauntlet that even a good team would struggle to finish over .500 against. And as we’ve all seen, the Mariners right now are not a good team.

Plain and simple, the M’s cannot wait any longer. If they keep trying to hold on with what they have, they’re going to sink. They need to get Milton Bradley and Jack Wilson back on the team as soon as possible. They need to make a trade (Ryan Raburn, please) right now. If Ryan Rowland-Smith struggles again tonight, he should probably head to the bullpen. The time for waiting is over. 29 games in 31 days, most of them against high quality competition… if the Mariners try to tackle that challenge with this roster, they don’t stand a chance.

The season isn’t over yet, but the time for patience is. It’s no longer a belief system to run Ken Griffey Jr out there – that’s just stubbornness. If the Mariners are serious about winning, they need to make changes, and they need to make them right now.

Comments

73 Responses to “It’s Get Serious Time”

  1. RoninX on May 17th, 2010 10:33 am

    I hope the Ms get on the ball here, but I fear that Dave should probably just save this post as a template… :(

  2. CYK on May 17th, 2010 10:40 am

    I don’t think they are serious about winning–not until 2012 at the earliest. There’s just too much wrong to fix for this year. At the risk of offending the fan base they should start shopping Lee at this time.

  3. Route 21 on May 17th, 2010 10:42 am

    I think Hyphen is a stand-up guy, and am really disappointed that his talent hasn’t turned into the results we’ve seen in previous seasons. Where did his good stuff go?

    Anyway, could/should the team go to a four-man rotation of Felix/Lee/Fister/Vargas for the next month-plus, until Bedard returns? If not, who would start in place of Hyphen?

  4. brianc1279 on May 17th, 2010 10:44 am

    I just hope for clarity over the next month. Sink or Swim mode. The most frustrating thing I can think of will be for them to miss the playoffs and not make any trades to help the future because they think they are still in it.

  5. Adam S on May 17th, 2010 10:48 am

    Isn’t it already too late? The Mariners would have to play .568 ball to win 85 games and then hope the division is mediocre. They’d have to play .600 ball to get to 90 wins.

    This is the most frustrating season I’ve had as a Mariners fan and perhaps the most frustrating weekend ever. Dave commented that the Mariners would be lucky to win a game in Tampa Bay and they win Friday, would have won Saturday if Moore came out for a pinch runner OR the team didn’t implode in the 8th, and had a chance to win Sunday.

    The weekend shows this is a decent team even without Bradley and Wilson, but they’ve made so many bad choices and had so many underachievers on offense, they’re mired at 14-23. While it’s mid-May they’re basically playing for respect not for the playoffs.

  6. Paul B on May 17th, 2010 10:51 am

    There’s other problems, besides KGJr and RRS.

    Use of the bullpen is a problem, as we’ve seen (White in high leverage situation, Colome taking up a roster spot, overuse of League or whatever his problem is with pitch selection. No reason yet to think that will change.

    Catcher is still a problem. If Bard shows something, when Moore comes back they should send RJ down to learn to catch the ball.

    Figgins is a problem. Try something, maybe drop him down to 9th for awhile, or give him a couple of days off, whatever might help. In the last 2 weeks, he’s going backwards which is hard to think possible, with a .374 OPS versus .549 for the season.

    Lopez is a problem. Same comment as for Figgins. Try something, give him a day off, drop him in the order. Lopez over the last two weeks, .417 OPS versus .515 for the season as a whole. Batting him fourth is just nuts.

    When Langerhans, Josh Wilson, and Bard look like stars in your lineup, you have a serious talent evaluation problem.

  7. craycraft on May 17th, 2010 10:56 am

    I´ve been trying not to freak out the last few weeks as the team floundered — taking a wait-and-see approach to the front office/manager. I was as excited as anyone by the offseason moves, but i have to say that Jack/Wak have lost some of my faith since spring training. Admittedly, there have been problems they couldn´t have foreseen or controlled (Figgy´s monster slump, for example), but there have been enough things in their control that should have been done differently (i.e. bringing Sweeney north and DFAing Langerhans, all the crazy/stupid lineups and bullpen decisions, leaving Lopez in the middle of the order game after game, etc.) that I think it´s legit to begin to wonder about these guys´ general abilities to mangage a baseball team. All that to say, my wait-and-see period is officially over. I realize that it´s not as simple as just going out and getting a big bat for the middle of the order, but if Jack and/or Wak don´t start doing the things that they can do now in terms of both roster and line-up moves, they will have completely, if not irreparably, lost my faith. For all of the good (and great) offseason moves, this lineup is terrible. I hate watching these guys. I don´t mind lack of power. I mind guys who make average pitchers look great and good pitchers look like Sandy Koufax routinely because they swing at everything and don´t make opposing pitchers throw strikes. As a fan, I want something done and I want it done now. I´ve tried to be patient, but that´s over with. In other words, I agree, Dave.

  8. Red Apple on May 17th, 2010 11:02 am

    I take issue with the idea that the M’s aren’t serious about winning. They traded for Lee, that was a serious commitment. It’s just that some of the decisions that we know are crazy…well, they just don’t see it that way. Part of Wak’s “belief system,” I suppose.

    Figgins isn’t a problem, he’s had horribly bad luck with BABIP. It’s unlikely his skills have suddenly dropped off a cliff. Every player goes through slumps, and he should regress to his mean.

    Lopez is a notoriously streaky player, and he’s had awful slumps that he’s bounced back from. I’m not giving up on him, as frustrating as he’s been at the plate. And I was a serious doubter about the switch to 3rd, but he’s certainly shown he was up to that challenge. Kudos to him. But yes, batting him 4th is certifiably crazy.

  9. Red Apple on May 17th, 2010 11:02 am

    And more Bard, please!

  10. Ironone on May 17th, 2010 11:03 am

    As currently constituted…..this is not a playoff roster. Most agree on that. Not much immediate help in the minors. Shop Lee…..and continue to build for next year. Or stand pat and hope that the numerous players performing below their ability rebound……while the players performing above their talent level continue to do so. I think that is not likely……..

  11. Westside guy on May 17th, 2010 11:04 am

    I had assumed, when the M’s went and got Cliff Lee, the plan was to compete this year. Is there any logical reason to assume this wasn’t the case? I guess what I’m asking is – is there any reasonable possibility Jack might’ve been thinking “I know I can spin him for more return later than I’m giving up now”?

    Maybe it’s a dumb question, but I’m struggling to find some/any consistency in the decisions that’ve been made as a whole.

  12. maqman on May 17th, 2010 11:10 am

    It’s time to fish or cut bait. Now we find out what kind of mariners this management team are. Branyan in the past week hit 4 HRs and had 7 RBIs, talk about rubbing it in!

  13. CYK on May 17th, 2010 11:13 am

    If all had gone right this year, we could have contended. However virtually nothing has gone right. Thus we shift mentality from 2010 playoffs to building for the future. We have gaping holes at C, 1B, 3B, DH, arguably 2B, SS, LF. Impossible to contend with so little. Must flip Lee for best possible haul. Must also evaluate Wak going forward as his usage of personnel (line-ups, bench, bullpen) must be raising eyebrows.

  14. GripS on May 17th, 2010 11:19 am

    A new Manager and 3rd base coach would be a nice start to righting this ship.

  15. Utis on May 17th, 2010 11:19 am

    because they swing at everything

    This isn’t completely accurate. The Mariners this year swing at just 26.5% of pitches outside the zone and have a 43% swing rate overall which is among the better rates in MLB. Even Jose Lopez has had some patient at bats.

    Their problem offensively has been making contact, driving the ball, and bad luck (low BABIP). Yesterday’s game was a good example. Upton’s double was lucky and some hits didn’t fall for us.

  16. Adam B. on May 17th, 2010 11:27 am

    I’m afraid that the changes that need to be made may prove too costly for this “sentimental centric” front-office to make in time.

    Those who heralded Zduriencik’s hiring as a fundamental shift in this organizations philosophies may not have been entirely correct.

    As far as has been observable, this front-office has been more the willing to ignore the sensible roster moves for the sake of hometown popularity and player attitude instead of performance.

    Granted, Baseball is a business and I don’t think the most die hard of statisticians would discount the effect of releasing a home-town hero of Griffey’s caliber, but when push has come to shove (as it has now for a while), this team needs to give fans a reason other then 1995 to put butts in the seats.

  17. Joeyjojo Jr Shabadoo on May 17th, 2010 11:27 am

    Well I for one am still in the angry phase. I find myself rapidly slipping to indifference though. As a Mariners fan since 1980 when I listened to every game on radio and rooted for players like Bruce Bochte, Al Cowens, Jim Beattie, and Gaylord Perry, if this team is starting to lose my interest then I can only imagine a bunch of other people have already tuned out the M’s.

    Jack Z needs to do something immediately to restore our faith. I can’t take another game like yesterday where our SP kicks but and loses because the offense is awful.

  18. luckyscrubs on May 17th, 2010 11:29 am

    If all had gone right this year, we could have contended. However virtually nothing has gone right. Thus we shift mentality from 2010 playoffs to building for the future.

    Nailed it. I’m looking forward to seeing the haul Jack Z fetches for Lee. Hopefully Lopez picks it up soon so he can have some value as well.

  19. smb on May 17th, 2010 11:44 am

    Prospects or picks for Lee, one way or another. I wouldn’t mind watching him pitch in an M’s uni for the rest of the season…it would help the bitter pill go down at least, and give me some picks to be excited about. Or…Lee to the A’s for Grant Green, Jeremy Barfield, and Michael Taylor (in my dreams), with Lee heading back to the NL at the end of the season and the A’s taking the picks…

    This 2010 M’s team is a pessimist’s best friend. They make Debbie Downer look like Warren Buffett. I have a feeling Figgins is the kind of guy who hits to the level of the talent around him. If we surrounded him with solid, multi-tool hitters and he got a nice, steady flow of fastballs for strikes, I think he’d be on base a lot more. He looks like he’s pressing now and it’s just ugly to watch. Hopefully 2011 Figgins marks a return to form…I’m no longer expecting him to have a full rebound this year, and I’ll be pleasantly surprised if he finishes the year with a BA over .250.

  20. Utis on May 17th, 2010 11:50 am

    The philosophy of the team has changed for the better in a way that best fits the home park. You can’t let the bad results affect how you feel about the approach. Adjustments will be made. Griffey will transition to be the 25th man on this team. With a few tweaks and some luck this team can still contend this year. If not, there are beter days ahead for the franchise.

  21. Chris_From_Bothell on May 17th, 2010 11:59 am

    “they need to get Jack Wilson back on the team as soon as possible”

    No, they don’t. Josh’s wOBA (yes, yes, small sample size) is better right now. And Jack’s fabled defense hasn’t shown up, or made a hell of a difference so far this year. The last thing this team needs is anything that makes the offense one iota worse.

    At leash Josh draws a walk once in a while.

  22. AlvinDavisEyes on May 17th, 2010 12:24 pm

    Is it absurd to think that there was not really much intention to make a run this year and that the Lee pickup was a ploy to get rid of some Bavasi-era prospects that Z wasn’t too keen on (or didn’t know enough about)in exchange for the near-certain possibility of either trading him off or just riding him out to get the draft picks?

    The rest of the roster was constructed using castoffs and has-beens who with a great deal of luck may have worked out. I’m beginning to get the feeling that the FO thought that they could put together a passable (read: near .500) season that would keep up the good feelings from ’09, while essentially rebuilding. Dealing Lee, Bedard (if he comes back and returns to form,) both, some other overperforming pitcher, and/or any number of AAAA guys to the right team could yield a pretty decent return (in the face of things, anyway.)

    Nearly every position except RF, CF and wherever Figgins is playing (still have high hopes for that guy) could stand a significant upgrade.

    In part I guess I’m asking this because I don’t want to believe that Z actually thought that spending $4.74m on Griffey/Garko/Sweeney/Byrnes was a better deal than spending the same (roughly) on Matsui/Damon/Dye/whomever.

    That, coupled with a lack of financial or contract-time committments to a lot of the guys makes me wonder.

  23. jjracoon on May 17th, 2010 12:30 pm

    Pretty simple to see that the three positions on a team that you expect the majority of your power and rbis from have not done it. 1st, 3rd and DH should be the ones carrying this offense. There is no way that Lopez and Kotchman will remain this bad. Bradley should be able to add some DH offense and IF we have to carry Sweeney or Griffey then make it Sweeney. At least he can catch up to a fastball now and then.

  24. Liam on May 17th, 2010 12:33 pm

    So when should the team look to get Jack Wilson back in the lineup? After Josh Wilson’s offensive outburst, he’s gone 1-18 with a walk, his wOBA is going to be dropping like a rock because of that SSS.

    The Mariners need to get Jack Wilson back because he’s projected to be better than Josh Wilson and that’s the bottom line.

  25. Chris_From_Bothell on May 17th, 2010 12:35 pm

    If Ryan Rowland-Smith struggles again tonight, he should probably head to the bullpen.

    To be replaced by who? Bedard isn’t ready yet, and likely won’t be for another month unless someone’s heard differently.

    Do you want to see Snell in there? Or would you bump Colome out to get e.g. French?

  26. Chris_From_Bothell on May 17th, 2010 12:42 pm

    Liam:

    The Mariners need to get Jack Wilson back because he’s projected to be better than Josh Wilson and that’s the bottom line.

    Jack Wilson was projected to be a plus defender when he was first brought over here, and we’ve hardly seen any of that. I’ll go out on a limb and project that Josh Wilson will stay healthier than Jack as well.

    A lot of players were “projected” to be better than a lot of things in this roster. (See Figgins, Chone.)

    The bottom line is 14-23.

    jjracoon:

    There is no way that Lopez and Kotchman will remain this bad.

    Sure there is. Thinking otherwise is gambler’s fallacy.

    CYK:

    We have gaping holes at C, 1B, 3B, DH, arguably 2B, SS, LF. Impossible to contend with so little. Must flip Lee for best possible haul. Must also evaluate Wak going forward as his usage of personnel (line-ups, bench, bullpen) must be raising eyebrows.

    Amen to that, except regarding Lee; I think it’s too early to flip him, let the contenders get more desperate first. And I think Figgins should get a chance to either switch back to leadoff or switch back to 3b (or both) before giving up on him.

    But otherwise, yes. Upgrades are desirable everywhere but CF, RF, the starting rotation and about half the bullpen. Including the manager, at this point.

  27. Diehard on May 17th, 2010 12:46 pm

    They made it out of the “soft” portion of their schedule with a 14-23 record with around 8-9 heartbreaking loses where they probably would’ve been W’s if the M’s had a competent offense or a bullpen that tends to self destruct at times.

    I agree with Dave, GMZ please make the necessary changes or it’s going to get real ugly really quick. Even the Padres are good this year so they can’t fall back on sweeping them. Please GMZ prevent another 2008!!!!! Our pitching is too good to be wasted like this!

  28. Celadus on May 17th, 2010 12:50 pm

    Difficult to make a persuasive argument that Wak is particularly interested in statistical analysis. He falls into the general category of a motivationally inclined manager.

    Easy to make an argument that Z is interested in statistical analysis, particularly given his hirings (other than manager).

    What we have here is a difference in philosophical approach. It would be difficult to convince me that Z didn’t make the wrong hire when he chose his manager.

  29. JMHawkins on May 17th, 2010 12:52 pm

    Isn’t it already too late?

    I don’t think it is, simply because none of the other teams in the AL West have put together a decent couple of weeks. The M’s are still in it. Sure, all it takes is for the Rangers to go on a hot streak and run away, but, as you pointed out:

    The weekend shows this is a decent team even without Bradley and Wilson, but they’ve made so many bad choices and had so many underachievers on offense…

    The M’s are as able as anyone else in the division to go on a good run, if they’d fix the major potholes in their roster and Wak stops making dumb in-game decisions.

    The M’s could easily be 19-18 or 20-17 – not based on better luck but on better personnel decisions. If they start making those today, then a little good luck could make up their current deficit and put them in the hunt for the division in September.

  30. Dave on May 17th, 2010 12:58 pm

    Josh Wilson is a replacement level player. Jack Wilson is a +1 to +2 win player. If you can’t tell the difference between them, then your evaluative skills are in question.

  31. Paul B on May 17th, 2010 1:04 pm

    I take issue with the idea that the M’s aren’t serious about winning. They traded for Lee, that was a serious commitment.

    But the Lee trade was kind of a no brainer, and works regardless of whether the M’s were playing for 2010 or the future.

    They traded 3 mid level prospects for either:

    1 year of Lee plus 2 draft picks, or

    3 months of Lee plus more than 2 draft picks in trade

    or, if Lee falls in love with the PNW, who knows, maybe they can sign him for a few years.

  32. eponymous coward on May 17th, 2010 1:07 pm

    Sure there is. Thinking otherwise is gambler’s fallacy.

    So your argument is Kotchman and Lopez are done as major league hitters before the age of 30, and Chone Figgins might be done as a MLB hitter, too?

    That’s basically what you’re arguing. Given Lopez’s career (where he seems to be a very streaky ballplayer), and given that BABIP tends to regress to a career mean UNLESS the ballplayer can’t hit any more (see: Junior) that seems a bit unsafe.

  33. HititHere on May 17th, 2010 1:08 pm

    There is no way that Lopez and Kotchman will remain this bad.

    Sure there is. Thinking otherwise is gambler’s fallacy.

    Regression to the mean exists.

    You can argue that Kotchman and Lopez have lost their baseball skills and will remain this bad, but the gambler’s fallacy does not apply. They aren’t flipping a coin for home runs. They are swinging a bat, and there are many skill-based factors involved, along with a small quantity of luck.

  34. Paul B on May 17th, 2010 1:14 pm

    The M’s could easily be 19-18 or 20-17 – not based on better luck but on better personnel decisions. If they start making those today, then a little good luck could make up their current deficit and put them in the hunt for the division in September.

    Pythagoras says they should be 16-21.

  35. KaminaAyato on May 17th, 2010 1:21 pm

    But the Lee trade was kind of a no brainer, and works regardless of whether the M’s were playing for 2010 or the future.

    They traded 3 mid level prospects for either:

    1 year of Lee plus 2 draft picks, or

    3 months of Lee plus more than 2 draft picks in trade

    or, if Lee falls in love with the PNW, who knows, maybe they can sign him for a few years.

    See, that was my thinking too (although the 3rd option was probably a <5% chance or so).

    The reconstruction project is long-term, it's just that this year looks horrible because I figure Z didn't find deals in the market that didn't hamstring him financially for a long period of time.

    In not signing several people like a Branyan to a 2-year deal and financially restricting themselves, Z has allowed himself the freedom to find someone later and pay for them.

    Now, he has paid multi-year deals, but those are to people he plans to build the team around – Felix, Figgins, Guti, Ichiro. Lopez was the prior org, and Jack Wilson was only a 2-year deal.

    Personally, I think the next offseason may be more telling of how Z wants to build the roster to his liking.

    Did he want to compete this year? Sure. But he wasn’t going to handcuff himself on sub-optimal options this past offseason to do so.

    The free agent list for 2011 seems better than the list for 2010, and having the money that Z has, he can spend it on those players.

    Long-term horizon people.

  36. joser on May 17th, 2010 1:37 pm

    On the short-term side of things, Shannon Drayer checks in with an idea: Hit Figgins Ninth (and Lopez 2nd, and she manages to make that sound not entirely crazy). Not that shuffling the batting order is going to turn the team into something the Cardinals will greet with fear, but it is, well, something.

  37. Lorenzo on May 17th, 2010 1:53 pm

    Hitting Figgins ninth sounds great to me. I’m surprised they didn’t do that a week ago. Does batting Saunders second sound totally crazy? (Although Drayer’s argument for Lopez is pretty convincing…)

    Kamina, I’m with you. The idea seems to be to compete as best as they can this year with what they have (which unfortunately isn’t very well right now) with an eye on next year or the year after. It’s frustrating to watch now, but after all of Bavasi’s short-sighted, plainly stupid moves, I’m trying to keep in mind that building a winning team is a project, and that it takes time.

  38. JMHawkins on May 17th, 2010 1:58 pm

    Pythagoras says they should be 16-21.

    Pythoagoras has to assume the same personnel used in the same situations, because it only goes on RSvRA. So with Griffey and Lopez hitting cleanup, Colome and White throwing high-leverage innings, Johnson getting his exercise chasing the ball to the backstop… they still should’ve won two more games than they did.

    Fix a few of those, and Pythagoras as more RS and fewer RA and maybe an over .500 record.

  39. lalo on May 17th, 2010 2:00 pm

    I believe that for the near period of free agents could sign good bats, without need of starting pitching, could sign Prince Fielder, Jorge Cantu, Carlos Peña or Jayson Werth relying on the money that they saved this season, this season still can be saved if Wak and Jack want to do it

  40. BlackHaloBender on May 17th, 2010 2:16 pm

    The Blue Jays, Angels, Mariners and White Sox all had DHs who entered Sunday with sub-.220 batting averages. Mariners DHs had a .560 OPS, barely better than the .554 put up by the White Sox. Those two teams would be better off using the Padres pitchers (.593 OPS) as DHs.

    Ouch.

  41. Westside guy on May 17th, 2010 2:23 pm

    So, BHB – are you saying we’ve all been coveting the wrong Padre? :-)

  42. Red Apple on May 17th, 2010 2:26 pm

    I believe that for the near period of free agents could sign good bats, without need of starting pitching, could sign Prince Fielder, Jorge Cantu, Carlos Peña or Jayson Werth relying on the money that they saved this season, this season still can be saved if Wak and Jack want to do it

    You live in some make-believe fantasy baseball world.

  43. spankystout on May 17th, 2010 2:37 pm

    I just don’t see any hope for a playoff run this year. With Fister, Vargas, Felix and Lee pitching well enough to win, they haven’t. Does anyone think Vargas and Fister will continue their success? I don’t think they can. Bedard is not a gurantee to contribute. Couple the pitchers regression, and the batters progression, and I see the team staying the same.

    An old adage comes to mind. “you can only polish a turd so much.”

  44. Marinersdude83 on May 17th, 2010 2:44 pm

    We really cold have won all three in Tampa, the best team in baseball. We really could beat anybody. 10 close losses. Even if we only lost half being 19 an 17 sounds great!

  45. Marinersmanjk on May 17th, 2010 3:14 pm

    Damn right Dave. I really hope someone in the M’s organization reads this blog, because right now, you should be our GM.

  46. Diehard on May 17th, 2010 3:17 pm

    As long as this team has pitching, they are closer to fixing things than a team with no pitching.

  47. Chris_From_Bothell on May 17th, 2010 3:27 pm

    Josh Wilson is a replacement level player. Jack Wilson is a +1 to +2 win player. If you can’t tell the difference between them, then your evaluative skills are in question.

    Which one of them is (yet again) on the DL?
    Which of them has a -1.6 UZR and -.2 WAR in 2010?
    Which of them has already made more errors this year than they did all of 2008?
    Which of them has a higher wOBA in 2010?

  48. the tourist on May 17th, 2010 3:31 pm

    Damn right Dave. I really hope someone in the M’s organization reads this blog, because right now, you should be our GM.

    …really? I like Dave. But I also like Jack. How about Dave for manager. :)

  49. spankystout on May 17th, 2010 3:33 pm

    Its two weeks CHRIS. A healthy Jack Wilson is by far better than Josh Wilson. Jacks
    numbers maybe be indicative of his health not his ability.

  50. Chris_From_Bothell on May 17th, 2010 3:37 pm

    Regression to the mean exists.

    You can argue that Kotchman and Lopez have lost their baseball skills and will remain this bad, but the gambler’s fallacy does not apply. They aren’t flipping a coin for home runs. They are swinging a bat, and there are many skill-based factors involved, along with a small quantity of luck.

    So are you arguing they’re going to go on a hitting streak, and by the end of the season their stats will look much like their career averages?

    Or are you arguing that they’re going to bat somewhat better, such that if it weren’t for these last 6 weeks they’d have a career average year but instead they will have a slightly below average year?

    If the latter, then fine, they’ll all have down years and we’ll have a .500ish team and yawn.

    If the former, though, then I keep citing gambler’s fallacy because there’s people who seem to think that Figgins, Kotchman, etc. are “due” to get hot, or “due” to hit significantly better overall. They’re not. They’ve been “due” to get better for 4 or 5 of the 6 weeks and counting of the season to date, and they haven’t.

    They’re not cooked, no, not yet. But there’s nothing we’ve seen in these first 6 weeks to guarentee they’re about to do any better either.

    If these guys’ numbers are way off due to BABIP, and BABIP = luck, well, luck can remain bad for an indeterminate amount of time. That’s kind of how luck works.

  51. Chris_From_Bothell on May 17th, 2010 3:41 pm

    A healthy Jack Wilson is by far better than Josh Wilson.

    That would be wonderful. Tell me when we’re going to have even a half a season of a healthy Jack Wilson, and I’ll be all for it…

  52. Dave on May 17th, 2010 3:49 pm

    You don’t get to quote numbers from 40 plate appearances and then pretend like you have a handle on what regression to the mean looks like.

  53. diderot on May 17th, 2010 3:51 pm

    Damn right Dave. I really hope someone in the M’s organization reads this blog, because right now, you should be our GM.

    Before Jack winds up going from idol to scapegoat in a couple short months, I think it might be worth considering who he decided NOT to spend money/young players on this winter (all popular suggestions on this site):

    Bay
    Pena
    Branyan
    N. Johnson
    Derosa
    Delgado
    F. Lopez
    Sheets
    Harden
    Duchscherer
    Washburn

    I think it actually could be worse.

  54. spankystout on May 17th, 2010 3:53 pm

    Hopefully it is soon. If not, Josh Wilson is what we got. But that doesn’t mean he is better than Jack. Jacks roughly plays 130-140 games a year. Josh Wilson has already cooled off and is showing why lots of organization has passed on him. He is a AAA player, always has been, always will be.

  55. Dennisss on May 17th, 2010 4:07 pm

    Chris_From_Bothell, I have to say I think gambler’s fallacy is being cited a bit too often (including in response to one of my comments, which makes me a bit testy.) You cited it in response to the statement “There is no way that Lopez and Kotchman will remain this bad.” That statement is likely correct, not a fallacy.

    I think most of us understand gambler’s fallacy.

  56. mlathrop3 on May 17th, 2010 4:10 pm

    This from a Yahoo blog about Wak being on the hotseat….

    .While it was obvious the Mariners lacked power, and therefore easy ways to score runs, few predicted the end-to-end flaccidness of league worsts in runs, on-base percentage and most of everything else.

    I couldn’t have said it better.

  57. spankystout on May 17th, 2010 4:12 pm

    Josh Wilson career UZR/150 in the majors at SS is -11.4. his career BA is .225 and his career WAR is -.5

  58. mlathrop3 on May 17th, 2010 4:13 pm

    While it was obvious the Mariners lacked power, and therefore easy ways to score runs, few predicted the end-to-end flaccidness of league worsts in runs, on-base percentage and most of everything else.

    apologies…

  59. mattlock on May 17th, 2010 4:19 pm

    All right, “Chris_From_Bothell”, here’s the deal.

    All this citing of statistics you’re doing is only accomplishing two things: 1) It’s showing very clearly what has happened in a VERY small sample size in the recent past; 2) It’s making you sound like a bloomin’ idiot.

    What you’re trying to accomplish with all this citing of statistics is to give us a reasonable baseline for what to expect in the future. The only reliable evidence we have to predict the future is the glut of statistics accumulated over the entire careers of each respective player. Anyone with a rudimentary understanding of basic statistics can understand that. And that glut of statistics tells us that A) Jack Wilson is a much better player that Josh Wilson; and, B) Casey Kotchman, Chone Figgins, and Jose Lopez are much better hitters than they have been so far.

    I’m not going to go so far as to say that you can’t understand basic statistics. I’m just going to say that you’re clearly refusing to try to understand. You’re talking about gambler’s fallacy… well, here’s another one for you to munch on: “confirmation bias”. You’ve got it in your head that this notion of yours is correct, and you’re warping statistics to prove your point. We all have notions that turn out to be incorrect. We just allow the numbers to inform us, instead of trying to inform the numbers.

    Numbers are our friends. Stop abusing them. ;)

  60. Dennisss on May 17th, 2010 4:24 pm

    Geez Mattlock, if I had known you were going to do that I wouldn’t have bothered…

  61. thesultanofsquat on May 17th, 2010 4:32 pm

    I don’t think Ryan Raburn would be an answer to anything for our offense. I think that if we want to make a trade for a bat it should be for someone who is proven like a Konerko, or Berkman. Anything less would just be another flier like Brynes.

  62. Diehard on May 17th, 2010 4:49 pm

    Wow tonight’s lineup is more of the same crap…

    Ichiro, figgins, Guti, Lopez, Griffey, Tui, Kotchman, paperboy, Bard

    Hope Hyphen is on his game tonight or were screwed.

  63. Chris_From_Bothell on May 17th, 2010 4:54 pm

    Mattlock – Confirmation bias is also trying to say that this past offseason’s plan should have worked, could have worked, that hitters will turn it around soon really, etc. etc.

    We all have notions that turn out to be incorrect. We just allow the numbers to inform us, instead of trying to inform the numbers.

    Be informed by these numbers then: 14 wins. 23 losses. 3rd worst winning percentage in the AL.

    Looking at career numbers is all fine and good for constructing the roster – and I was behind the theory on most of these guys as of spring training, from Figgins to Kotchman to Bradley on down – but really, at some point in the actual season, while playing the actual games, we flip over from “Wilson, Kotchman, Figgins and Lopez are much better hitters, hold on” to “Wilson, Kotchman, Figgins and Lopez should have been much better hitters… whoops”.

    If it’s too early to get a read on these guys, let me know when you believe it’s late enough in the season to measure what these players, this year, are or aren’t doing.

  64. JMHawkins on May 17th, 2010 5:12 pm

    You cited it [gambler’s fallacy ] in response to the statement “There is no way that Lopez and Kotchman will remain this bad.” That statement is likely correct, not a fallacy.

    I think most of us understand gambler’s fallacy.

    Perhaps Chris_from_Bothell is postulating the Sucker’s Fallacy, which is related to but distinct from the Gambler’s Fallacy.

    The Gambler’s Fallacy says that if a coin flip comes up heads ten times in a row, then it’s due to come up tails several times in a row to even out the luck. This isn’t true. The coin still has a 50-50 chance of coming up heads or tails, regardless of what happened before.

    The Sucker’s Fallacy says still believing the coin has a 50-50 chance of coming up tails after it came up heads ten times in a row is dumb, since the coins is obviously loaded.

    Whether or not Lopez and Kotchman are Sucker’s Fallacies I don’t know. I hope not.

  65. jsa on May 17th, 2010 5:33 pm

    You don’t get to quote numbers from 40 plate appearances and then pretend like you have a handle on what regression to the mean looks like.

    How many mound appearances does it take?

    It would seem to me, reading some posts from earlier this year that we were all admonished not to expect Fister or Vargas to continue to pitch the way they did early.

    Yet just last week someone, (was it Dave?) put up a thread saying, in essence, that that maybe those two guys were for real.

    Are they now expected to drop back to being merely replacement level?

    I believe Chris_from_Bothel has a point when he contends that Josh is as good as Jack.

    Age and injury count for more than some arbitrary mean. The team is burdened enough with players in their twilight years. How many times do we have to relearn that?

  66. spankystout on May 17th, 2010 6:04 pm

    An injured Jack Wilson still has produced more in his career than Josh. Seriously people,
    Josh Wilson is the definition of a replacement level player. Stop buying into 2 weeks
    of observations that somehow negate
    the years of futility Josh Wilson has provided his numerous organizations.

  67. Harrison on May 17th, 2010 6:16 pm

    Amen.

  68. MrZDevotee on May 17th, 2010 6:35 pm

    I don’t quite understand why folks don’t like Jack Wilson– especially in regards to Josh Wilson taking his place.

    Jack is a gold glove-caliber shortstop, and has the THIRD best batting average on the team (discounting the AAA kids) and 7 extra base hits.

    He has more errors than normal, but he also had an injured throwing hand– and a bizarre 3 error game, that was a complete anomaly.

    He’s been rated 3rd in the league or better for “range factor” amongst shortstops, since 2002. And he’s actually #1 amongst active players.

    And he’s been a +1 or greater WAR player since 2006 (other than his shortened stop- no pun intended- at Seattle last year). In fact, for his career he’s NEVER had a negative WAR.

    There are some positions to worry about on this team, but SS isn’t one of them in my opinion. Other than his injuries, for which we– tu’dah– have Josh Wilson who can take his place, Wilson brings the goods. I love watching him make routine plays out of grounders deep in the hole.

  69. mattlock on May 17th, 2010 9:16 pm

    Mattlock – Confirmation bias is also trying to say that this past offseason’s plan should have worked, could have worked, that hitters will turn it around soon really, etc. etc.

    That could be an example of confirmation bias if it was wrong. But it’s not.

    Looking at career numbers is all fine and good for constructing the roster

    Oh, that’s a good thing, considering that’s what we’re discussing.

    I was behind the theory on most of these guys as of spring training, from Figgins to Kotchman to Bradley on down

    Behind what theory? Playing players that are good instead of players that are bad?

    but really, at some point in the actual season, while playing the actual games, we flip over from “Wilson, Kotchman, Figgins and Lopez are much better hitters, hold on” to “Wilson, Kotchman, Figgins and Lopez should have been much better hitters… whoops”.

    So what’s your point? Of course, if they keep playing like this the rest of the season, then obviously we look back and say, “Wow, who would have predicted that several good Major League players would all completely tank at the same time? That sucks.”

    If it’s too early to get a read on these guys, let me know when you believe it’s late enough in the season to measure what these players, this year, are or aren’t doing.

    Who cares? Discussing when to pull the plug on players for sucking for the majority of a season is stupid and pointless when there is absolutely NO evidence whatsoever indicating such a thing might happen. I don’t plan on what I would do if I walked out my front door and a plane crashed on my head, because there is no evidence such a thing might happen.

    Remember, we traded a crappy, lazy, useless utility player for Kotchman and a crappy, lazy, useless, fat, ugly, stupid, obnoxious, idiotic pitcher for Bradley. Jack Wilson is a good player, despite his injury history, and despite the fact that your uneducated opinion tells you otherwise. Stop acting like Zduriencik passed up on a bunch of good options, because he didn’t. This is a team that lost 101 games a year and a half ago. Very rarely do any teams in such a situation ever come even close to thinking about contention like the Mariners are now.

  70. John D. on May 17th, 2010 11:15 pm

    We need to make a trade (Ryan Raburn, please) right now.

    RYAN RABURN ? Don’t we have enough hitters that are flirting with the Mendoza line ?

    From ROTOWORLD: Raburn is batting just .213/.315/.362 with zero homers and five RBI over 47 at-bats this season.

  71. mattlock on May 18th, 2010 12:58 am

    RYAN RABURN ? Don’t we have enough hitters that are flirting with the Mendoza line ?

    From ROTOWORLD: Raburn is batting just .213/.315/.362 with zero homers and five RBI over 47 at-bats this season.

    Hmm, but looking at his stats from last year, according to Fangraphs, he hit .291/.359/.533 with 16 homers and 26 walks in 291 PAs while playing some CF, some RF, some LF, some 3B, and some 1B. He’s also played 2B. He’s good.

  72. John D. on May 18th, 2010 10:09 am

    but looking at [RABURN's] stats from last year, according to Fangraphs, he hit .291…

    CHONE FIGGINS hit .298 last year.

  73. mattlock on May 18th, 2010 10:18 am

    CHONE FIGGINS hit .298 last year.

    You’re right, he did.

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