The 2011 Mariners
2010 is in the books at this point. Yes, miracles can happen, and the team theoretically could rip off 65 wins and steal the division title by a hair, but you can’t make decisions based on the expectation of a miracle, and the Mariners have some decisions to make. When a season is a lost cause, the silver lining is the chance to take a look at some guys who wouldn’t get a real shot when a team was trying to win. You can start to look at your roster with an eye towards the following year and try to figure out what you have and what you need. So let’s do just that.
2011 Salary Obligatoins, via Cot’s Contracts:
C: Moore/Johnson – Needs Upgrade.
1B: Carp – Needs Upgrade
2B: Figgins/Ackley – No Move Necessary
SS: Wilson/Wilson – Question Mark
3B: Lopez/Figgins – Question Mark
LF: Saunders – Question Mark
CF: Gutierrez – No Move Necessary
RF: Ichiro – No Move Necessary
DH: Bradley – Question Mark
Bench: Empty – Needs Upgrade
#1: Felix Hernandez – No Move Necessary
#2: Empty – Needs Upgrade
#3: Empty – Needs Upgrade
#4: Doug Fister – No Move Necessary
#5: Jason Vargas – No Move Necessary
CL: David Aardsma – Question Mark
Setup: Brandon League – No Move Necessary
Setup: Shawn Kelley – No Move Necessary
Setup: Mark Lowe – Question Mark
Middle: Ryan Rowland-Smith – Question Mark
Middle: Empty – Question Mark
Long: Luke French – No Move Necessary
Out of 25 roster spots, we’re not even able to label 10 of them as positions that the club doesn’t need to worry about filling. That’s not good, especially considering that the team is not going to have much money to spend this winter. Current obligations for 2010 come to just under $70 million, and that doesn’t include salaries for any of the arbitration eligible guys the team will want back – most notably, Jason Vargas, David Aardsma, Brandon League, Mark Lowe, and Ryan Rowland-Smith. Based on expected raises, you have to pencil that group in for somewhere around $10 million.
That gives the team an $80 million payroll before they go shopping. We have to assume the budget will be in the low $90 millions again next year, giving the team just over $10 million to spend. That doesn’t go very far when you need two starting pitchers, a starting first baseman, a catcher who can play at least half the time, a whole new bench, possibly a designated hitter, and maybe another arm in the bullpen.
Jack Zduriencik is not going to be able to go out and fix all of this team’s problems in free agency. He might not be able to fix any of them in free agency. This team is going to have to make some shrewd trades and get production from low salary guys. There aren’t many in the high minors ready to step in and contribute, so they’re going to have to be acquired from other sources. And that’s where the rest of this season can give the Mariners a leg up.
There are quite a few players kicking around Triple-A who could potentially help the Mariners next year, but need a shot to show what they can do in the big leagues. The Mariners now have approximately four months to give those guys an audition. The longer they wait, hoping for a miracle, the less time they have to find guys who can stake a claim on next year’s roster. That’s why they shouldn’t sit around and wait until July 31st before they start making moves.
Call the Royals about Kila Ka’aihue (26-year-old 1B/DH hitting .326/.503/.617 in Triple-A), and try to pry away Alex Gordon while you’re at it. See if you can get Trevor Plouffe from Minnesota or Tyler Greene from St. Louis to offer another young, cheap option at shortstop. Give Chris Resop a shot to show what he can do on the mound. These are the kinds of players the team will need production from in 2011, and they don’t have enough good internal options to give the kids from Tacoma a shot. Mike Carp is not good enough to be this team’s first baseman next year – not if they want to try to win. Garrett Olson isn’t going to fill one of the holes in the rotation. These guys are serviceable role players at best, and this is a roster that needs more than that.
The organization has a lot of work to do if they want to be a contender next year. They can’t wait until the off-season to go to work. They should start tomorrow. 2010 is officially over, and the team is now playing for 2011.
League is assumed to be a reliable set up man in 2011?
Warning: The following article is sad but true.
So mark w, do you have any answers to these questions?
Fangraphs has no AAA numbers for Kila Ka’aihue in 2010, just two games and four PAs for him with the Royals. What’s up with that?
Kila Ka’aihue
We haven’t had minor league data at FanGraphs this year due to a contractual issue. That has been resolved. They should be up in the next week or so.
Think you linked to the wrong Tyler Greene.
But the futility of this roster really is something to behold.
I am all for a complete fire sale, Move them all. Ichiro, Felix, Aardsma, League , Lee, sell them all. Were not going to get much for Lee. 3 month rentals do not get good return in trades. I’d rather have the 2 supplemental picks along with our #1 draft pick that we are nearing.
Please rebuild… wipe the slate clean.
Also I truely feel Ichiro deserves a post season.
Or, there could be a groundswell of discontent from the fans for the next 6 to 9 months about how cheap the ownership and/or front office is, and let Jack loose with a real budget to try to invest in the future.
Not to blow it on overpriced free agents, or to pin the success of the franchise on one or two players, obviously. But to have the financial freedom to credibly fill in at least 2 out of the several monster holes in the infield and rotation. Let the bench and bullpen be filled in with the AAA / AAAA guys, the low-cost guys, the in-house sludge we need to clear from the last of the farm.
Rather than the dreary bargain-basement hunting, and risk-taking on injury-plagued or unproven or head-case sorts we’ve been subjected to, wouldn’t it be nice to go shopping in a better part of town for some of these pieces for the future?
Wouldn’t it be nice to envision what Jack could be doing with 20 million instead of 10 million? Why should Mariner fans settle?
Give Jack the money to over slot pay for draft picks. FA money is for the last 1-2 pieces, not for your heart of your team. We have way to much money tied up into 10 playes. Either blow it, or keep this roller coaster going
Dave, is there any chance that any of the AA guys besides Ackley step up and add value next year or is that a lost cause? Perguero has an OPS of .931 and Pineda has a 4/1 K/BB rate with a low WHIP (1.04). Though I really don’t know how good a player needs to play in AA and for how long to be major league ready amd above replacement value.
Crazy how several major contracts and a bunch of little pieces add up to $70M.
The inevitable Cliff Lee trade will bring in MLB-ready talent(s), so there’s that to hope about. Otherwise it looks like more of the same is necessary: shrewd pickups with limited upside.
This is depressing…
So what if the M’s do end up sending Lee to the Yankees for the likes of Montero and Nunez?
I imagine that if the market gets hot for Lee and all the contenders rush to get him, Jack Z could get some good talent to help fill some of those holes. Upper management needs to bump up payroll, time for them to stop being so stingy and give Jack Z the flexibility to bring a true winner to Seattle for the first time in a long time.
The reality is that 2011 is in the books too.
For anyone saying to trade Ichiro, the PR disaster would far outweigh anything they could get in return. While he is a good player, he is also being adequately paid for that production at $17M a season which diminishes his trade value.
It’ way too early to give up on Carp. He is 23 years old and possesses actual ML caliber bat speed … unlike Kotchman. He is also an average defender (at worst). With so many holes to fill and so many needs, you don’t need to blow your wad on pursuing a 1B from elsewhere when a fully functional one exists – in house at major league minimum cost. He does not resemble an athlete in any way, but he is not a complete slug either. Given an opportunity the rest of this season, his numbers will be decent with a lot of room for hope. He is kind of “Krukish” in nature. I agree with most of your list Dave, but on a decent team, young players like Saunders and Carp can be brought along, fit in and develop concurrently. Pulling the plug on guys like these would be synonymous with falling into the same trap as the Bavasi regime and getting rid of players like Cabrera and Choo – who were jettisoned – becuase they (at one time) also did not appear like they would fit in either. Panic has a snowball effect – just like losing has a snowball effect. There are many more obvious choices for being removed than Carp and potentially Saunders … as adequately detailed within your list. Remember … talent growth projections until the approximate age of 26 for position players … with their prime years concluding around the age of 30/31. It’s too early to give up on some of the young guys. It’s way to late to keep hanging on to many of the others as expressed by many other posters on many other occasions throughout the season.
Wouldn’t it be nice to envision what Jack could be doing with 20 million instead of 10 million? Why should Mariner fans settle?
Because you don’t have a choice. No one gets rich by spending an extra $10 million because of pressure from random people. The ownership won’t set a budget that doesn’t include a profit margin, whether you like it or not.
Perguero has an OPS of .931 and Pineda has a 4/1 K/BB rate with a low WHIP (1.04).
Carlos Peguero sucks. He’s not a prospect.
Pineda might be able to help next year, but you can’t count on it with his minimal professional experience and history of arm problems. He’s a pleasant surprise for 2011, not a foundation piece.
So what if the M’s do end up sending Lee to the Yankees for the likes of Montero and Nunez?
The Yankees would never make that trade. Don’t buy into rumors from the NY Post. It’s a tabloid.
It’ way too early to give up on Carp.
He projects as a +1 win player in his prime. He’s not a starting caliber player in the big leagues for a team that wants to win. He never will be.
What was the Mariner win total “projection” for the 2010 season in late March.
I am just going to agree to disagree with you about Carp – after 3 games and last years cup of coffee … while agreeing with you on most every other point of your list
Yes, throw out all projections that have proven to be accurate over the years, and let’s just take your opinion for it based on ~70 plate appearances in the big leagues.
Minor league numbers count too. Carp’s aren’t very good, and for a reason – he’s not very good.
How bad could this get if management lowers payroll to $80M or $85M?
Too bad Carp’s ceiling is still probably Kotchman’s 07 campaign.
Also said prediction did not factor in a month w/o Lee and Figgins/Bradley/Lopez/Kotchman all hitting well below their career norms.
I agree with you completely on Carp Dave and even more so when you think about the philosophy that Jack Z and company have of building a team around defense with respect to position players. We HAVE to get a first baseman who is a legit IMPACT hitter because I don’t see a lot of offense coming from SS, C, 3B or even LF right now.
I am a FAN of Saunders but it may be a year or two at least before he shows a lot of impact on offense. Saunders is already excellent in LF and he gives the M’s a great defensive OF so I say let the kid play everyday this year and develop. The two positions I think we have to get more offense from are 1B and DH because DH obviously doesn’t have to account for defense and while defense isn’t something that is non-important at 1B, I think given the strength of our defense elsewhere the team will need to focus on offense more there.
I think Figgins has to go, he is taking up 10% of the budget and is clearly is an awful defensive secondbaseman, far worse than Lopez. Just look at his career UZR/150.
As I said when we signed him in two years hes a washed up bench player making huge dollars.
We should put him on waivers and see if someone bites on him. If no one does then trade him and up to 10 million in cash for a bucket of balls.
As an organization we have to learn its too risky to pay huge contracts to players over 31 years old.
That was a rather big leap to make Dave. It’s not the leap I made. I threw nothing out. I asked a question about a projection (from admittedly a bit of a defensive posture and for the purpose of attempting to make a point), but I would still would appreciate to know what that answer is.
Dave, to say that the M’s do actually trade Cliff instead of get the draft picks, what about a trade to the Yankees for Austin Romine? He isn’t a star prospect but he’s solid, and the Yanks already have Jesus Montero in front of him. He seems like the perfect dispensable piece. He probably won’t make it to the majors next year, but it really looks like we are looking to 2012 for us to be in realistic contention. He looks to be a good piece. That is, unless you think Adam Moore can still be a solid major league catcher.
Is it even possible to trade Figgins? Also, that does send a message to other free agents that a four year contract signed four months ago means nothing really to the M’s. I agree that Figgins is a HUGE concern here but there are other factors at play now that Jack Z has to worry about both on and off the field. What a mess this team is!
Seriously? Figgins ins’t a problem. He’s had 2 bad months and he’s picking up. I don’t see why you would gripe about a guy with a tremendous track record when you have a catcher who can’t hit or block balls, a shortstop who shouldn’t be in the majors, a questionable DH, and a first baseman/mans who are just flat out terrible. At least Figgins can still run and steal bases. Nobody else but Ichiro can do that.
I wasn’t griping about Figgins, I was responding to the other poster saying we needed to trade Figgins.
I was just about to post that, but you beat me to it.
Yea, I was just using that quote as a basis to start off my paragraph. It wasn’t directed personally to you nickwest. Sorry for the mix-up.
Due to his contract and this awful year, you are not going to get anything good even if you DO trade Figgins.
No worries man!
This team is in a mess because they have not built a farm system. Jack was brought in to do what he did in Milwaukee build up the farm. It may take five years but that is what is needed.
Instead he fell into the Bavasi trap of I can win now look at the win total in 2009 (the fact we were outscored during the year doesn’t matter) all I need is to spend money, draft picks and prospects to try to win. So instead of starting the rebuild he has mostly wasted the last two years.
Baltimore, Texas, Oakland, and even Toronto have rebuilt their farm system far more than the M’s.
He should have spent the money on the future, SS Hechavaria, P Chapman, some one like Cox in the first round. He could have had those three guys for the money and pick he lost on Figgins.
I liked the Lee deal as the two comp picks were better than the crap we gave Phillie but other than that his moves since trading for Guti have been misguided.
Why not?? Montero is stuck at triple A and blocked by other guys…
I may be wrong about this, but isn’t our farm system much better now than it was when Jack took over? I think a lot of people say our farm is crap because we don’t have guys who are ready now (or next year). But don’t we have a bunch of guys who will be ready in a few years (development willing)?
Well, Posada won’t be behind the plate for them forever….
Really? Montero is in AAA and rapes the ball. He isn’t projected to be a catcher in the majors, (probably a first base or DH) and is one of the better prospects in the major leagues. That yankees aren’t going to give up one of their best prospects for a couple months of Cliff Lee when the have CC, AJ, and your pick of Vazquez or Pettite taking them into the playoffs. They don’t even need pitching.
I really want to know what the hell happened to Rafael DePaula. He was one of those up and coming hot prospects in febrauary and now he’s vanished off the face of the earth.
Are you thinking that Milton will get traded or that he’ll continue to be unproductive? Cuz if it’s the second one, I disagree. I know he’s been abysmal since returning from his self imposed exile (I believe he’s walked 3% of the time and posted an ISO of about .050 since his return), but given his age, his performance over the last couple years (and even the beginning of this year), and the sample size I don’t think he’s permanently broken. Unless I’m missing something.
By the way, how’s the Kilamonster’s d? I’ve been hoping the Mariners would acquire him for months now.
Our farm and scoutings are decent imo.
We don’t have much MLB ready players in minor because BAVASI TRADED THEM AWAY for mediocore talents.
I disagree our farm system is not significantly better except for Ackley which was the obvious #2 pick in the draft not really a wow look what our GM selected.
Who has Jack added to the farm in trades?
Lets look at the new Toronto GM in the same time
Toronto’s GM traded for and signed top quality prospects 1B Wallace, SP Zack Stewart, SP Drabek, SS Hecharvia and C D’Arnaud all outside of the Draft. Then add the 2010 draft Toronto had the most picks in first three rounds by doing things like swapping SS via free agency with Boston and getting two top draft picks.
So for me Jack has fumbled the ball starting with the Jack Wilson deal, and the last 15 months of thinking they had a winner in 2010. I know hes smart enough to recover but sadly we wasted a year of rebuilding.
WTF happened to RRS this year? He wasn’t awesome last year, but he’s dropped off a cliff this year. Is there any hope that he can right the ship next year?
Robbles, Cleto, Carp and Chavez off the top of my head.
The Toronto GM also had the luxury of having Roy Halladay perfectly tradable. If Jack traded Felix, there be mutiny
The Toronto GM also traded away Roy Halladay. If we traded Felix, you’d apparently think Jack was doing a great job.
You’ve made three comments in this thread, and I’m not sure you’ve written one true word in any of them.
What about Halman at DH? He has some nice power numbers (although his avg is pretty low.) Look at how well the players we traded are doing for the Phillies. Aumont is back in High A. Gillies, last I checked is on the DL with pretty bad numbers. And JC is average AT BEST. None of them had a future with the M’s (besides maybe Gillies) We are going to get a top 25 along with a top 100 guy for Lee. None of those prospects were close to that. We also may get a ML ready player aswell.
Dave our payroll was at 118m when we had that horrible 100/100 season. Why couldn’t it be expanded to around that number? I’m not sure if Armstrong and Howard put a limit on Z, but I don’t think it’s ridiculous to think we can’t have 20-30m to spend if need be. Do I think it would happen? No, but if we can get some talent to hover around .500 to build up the farm for a couple of years, I think we could end up with some players. Maybe a plug-in 1B/DH this year until we can find one for the future. Maybe same with SS (Although I think Josh should keep the spot until Franklin is ready) Speaking of Franklin, Does he project to be a solid starting SS? Maybe a .300/.350/.450 15 HR SS? If so he may be a great option for the future at SS.
Also Nick Franklin, Kyle Seager, Steve Baron, Danny Cortes, Rich Poythress, etc. etc.
How has he wasted the last two years? Have you looked at Philippe Aumont and Tyson Gillies’ numbers post-trade? The most successful prospect Jack Z has dealt away is JC Ramirez, who has yet to ever put up any kind of performance consistent with his ability. Let’s not compare the trades Zduriencik made to bring in talent with the Bavasi debacle.
I am not upset with Jack Z trying to win this year but the problem I have with everything is after the Lee trade was made, that was pretty much it for roster construction.
If the M’s were truly all in this year, there were several other moves that needed to be made such as getting a real first baseman or DH. Trading for Luke Scott would have made all the sense in the world given his 1B/LF/DH flexibility as once it was clear that Kotchman was in the toilet, he could taken over at 1B.
The other move would have been signing a Vlad or Matsui to be a DH but given Griffey/Sweeney on the roster that move was blocked. The team could have gone out and signed Damon for LF (which I believe Dave advocated for) as they could have gotten Abreu the previous year.
If the team had two players like Scott/Vlad or even Scott/Adam LaRoche from the beginning of the year, my guess is they would have hung in the race or at least long enough to allow for more moves to put the team over the top.
I get that Cliff Lee can be flipped for better stuff than we gave up so it’s not a total loss but you only get so many chances to get a player like this on your team and you trade for a guy like Lee to win now. The M’s have totally wasted a great player like Cliff Lee and that’s what really, really stinks in my mind.
I just don’t understand making such a great move like that and not following it up with any more moves…and with Vlad, LaRoche, Matsui and even Damon all as one year contract guys for reasonable deals sitting out there, it’s not like the M’s didn’t have options.
You’re making the assumption that the Mariners did not chase after those guys which is misguided.
I am not making that assumption at all but my point is they should have had some moves lined up or been pretty sure they could add to the Lee move. I realize it isn’t that simple but in my opinion, trading for Lee is a sure signal that you are trying to win now and there were just too many holes to assume that they would all work out well.
Whups…meant to keep going.
Mauricio Robles has a 3.17 tRA and is striking out over 10 batters per 9 in Double-A. He’s the organization’s second best pitching prospect. Zduriencik got him as a throw-in in exchange for a flaming pile of poo. The other player in that deal, Luke French, ran a 3.63 tRA in Tacoma before his callup.
Also, he wasn’t added to the farm, but have you forgotten about Franklin Gutierrez? I guess bringing in excellent, young, major league quality talent only counts if they don’t actually contribute at the major league level.
I have a feeling that Z understood that we were still in the rebuilding process and all of us just got ahead. He didn’t go out and sign a big bat because that wouldn’t help us now. We obviously weren’t going to win. Now, we have Cliff Lee, a badass who will get us maybe one top prospect of 2 compensation draft picks. All of those better than what we gave up. I think he’s just repositioning us so that we can contend in 2012 in all reality.
Ignoring the numbers completely is a mistake, but so is failing to recognize their limits. Chances are you’re right, but that’s pretty presumptuous. Baseball is full of surprises.
The thing about the Lee trade is, none of the prospects they shipped out were any good. If you’re patient, whether they trade Lee or take the compensation picks there’s a better than 50% chance the farm system will be better not in spite of the Lee trade, but because of it.
In related news, after today’s disastrous post-demotion start, Philippe Aumont is running a 42-38 BB/K in 50.1 innings.
They did, and added moves after the Lee trade. Just because they couldn’t get the best guys available is not a problem; that happens. Noone could have expected LaRouche would have held out as long as he did on his inane demands, there is no way to predict how trade negotiations would go. You’ll never make a trade if you use that as your standard.
Is that Jon Rauch’s french cousin?
No, it’s Lyndon LaRouche’s love child.
Good points on the Lee trade and I am still happy with it because I do agree that the M’s should very easily get a much better return back for Lee than they gave up.
I just wish we could have added Lee during a year where we could have seen him pitch in October.
Well, if we’re on that tangent, then we might as well dump Howie and Chuckie, too — since they’re the cause of most of this misery to begin with.
Not to mention, things will absolutely not improve on this team until they’ve retired from the organization.
I think this is the money quote.
Dave, I would like to see this same post but with ’2012′ in the header. Who from the AA team do we think realistically could help us by then?
Personally, I’d start with Kreuger. I can’t stand his analysis. His key to the games are so painfully obvious and you can’t help but think why am I listening to him ramble when he couldn’t even play the game well himself. Though I guess it fits that he analyzes on of the shittiest teams in baseball.
I’m really hoping we will have a core of Ackley, Franklin, Robles and Pineda coming up with a Solid Saunders in left with the indestructable Ichiro still out in right. It would be nice to see Fields as our closer, but he seems to be yet another first round pile of shit.
Not to mention that he uses more Grecian Formula in his hair than most head coaches in the NBA & NHL combined.
Lol he uses so much. We can also get rid of that Jen Mueller and her post-game reporting. It’s bad enough that shes not hot, but damn she’s annoying. But I don’t watch many of the games anymore so I’ve seemingly found my solution.
Griffey, Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong all retiring this year would be the best move. One down, two to pray for.
The chances that Franklin will be ready by the start of 2012 aren’t very good. You’re talking about a kid who will in all likelihood start next year in the Cal league. End of 2012 is the absolute earliest Franklin could potentially get a call, and even then you’re dreaming on a lot.
Haha, c’mon! It’s irresponsible to give such strong blurps without any sort of an actual argument attatched. Why does he suck? Is he too old, is his BABIP outrageously high? Is his track record terrible? Simply saying someone sucks does little to convince anyone when they are doing so well. Thanks.
One guy along the lines of Ka’aihue I’d love to see the Ms target is John Bowker.
Geoff Baker says tonight the M’s embarrassed themselves and the city.
Couldn’t agree more.
And as much as I was against this before, I’ll at least say this about Wak.
IF the Mariners feel as if they’ve seen enough of him at the end of the year, go out and get someone that has a Lou Pinella-like attitude about his players.
That doesn’t necessarily mean overload the roster with veteran players and rush a given minor league player in our system because “Player A” is hitting .200 in MLB.
But for love of God, whoever the manager is should make sure his players are playing with fire under their bellies and taking PRIDE in their performance and the team’s performance (i.e. Terry Francona).
And you just don’t get the impression that’s happening right now (and hasn’t happened in about 10 years) when Chone Figgins, for example, whines about being moved down to the #9 hole.
Ignoring the fact, of course, that:
A) He’s hitting close to .200 this season.
B) He’s getting paid millions and millions of dollars to play pro baseball and isn’t about to be in an unemployment line.
And of course, those 8 unearned runs tonight don’t help either.
This team SUCKS. Blow the ENTIRE thing up.
There’s NO POINT right now of buying a ticket and going to see a game.
I dunno, after reading this, I think Dave had the wrong picture up a few posts ago. I’m thinking more like this.
Scoutingbook Mariners in thier top 400 prospects
http://www.scoutingbook.com/prospects/
1. Dustin Ackley OF (#14 overall)
2. Michael Saunders OF (#35 overall)
3. Carlos Triunfel 3B (#88 overall)
4. Alex Liddi 3B (#111 overall)
5. Greg Halman OF (#171 overall)
6. Adam Moore C (#201 overall)
7. Gabriel Noriega SS (#216 overall)
8. James Paxton LHP (#223 overall)
9. Joshua Fields RHP (#270 overall)
I would add SP Taijuan Walker (and rank him near Paxton 200 – 225).
We still need to get more quality future, without trading prospects or Felix and Guti. But the rest of the 40 man roster should be made available for top 200 prospects.
Ha ha ha. I totally get the sentiment, but I’d rather think of the picture of the current situation as an empty field with a little bit of rebar and concrete in one little corner. Just a small portion of the foundation of a mansion.
WORLD CUP 2010. WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
Expectations were probably unreasonable, but a lot of these guys should regress to the mean a fair amount. Not in time for this year, but probably next year. Let’s not overcompensate for overhyping this year by selling next year short. This is not directed at Dave specifically, although it’s too early for him to judge how most of these prospects will do.
Could we package Lopez/Aardsma or another reliever to get Kila/Alex Gordon?? The middle infielders in KC suck and for all these guys a change of scenery could be in order. Also, since the Twins are looking for relief help, could we get Plouffe for Aardsma straight up? It seems something that would help both teams and be reasonable. Getting Kila and Alex Gordon would be awesome if we can.
For hitting, the case in point is Chone Figgins. Wasn’t his batting average under .200 just two weeks ago or so? I know batting average isn’t a good way to evaluate talent, but raising 40 points in two weeks means Figgins is regressing to the mean right now. (Have I jinxed it?)
He has too many holes as a hitter to be serviceable at the big league level. That’s the basic consensus.
He’s a better ballplayer and hitter than what he was a year ago. But check out this for a decent piece on him.
From the looks of Churchill’s article on Peguero, he almost strikes me as being Carlos Pena v2.0.
After reading a prospect insider article about trading Lee were he says the Twins are the best two team match he can find I think we:
Trade Lee to the twins for Plouffe(SS), Ramos(C), Joe Benson(OF)
Then trade for Boston’s Lars Anderson(1B)however you can get him…If not him then possibly Rizzo
Also just saw were the Twins may be looking at acquiring Aardsma http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/06/twins-looking-for-relievers.html#disqus_thread
Dave said:
While this is likely true, I wonder if putting the organization in the red for a couple of years would pay long term dividends? What would be the effect of increasing the budget 15% for two consecutive years? It reminds of something someone once told me about dealing with ridership issues in public transportation. Often times it is worth while to increase the frequency of the train/bus in an attempt to attract more riders – even when the temptation is to reduce frequency and save money.
Oh, and it pisses me off that some “other” teams don’t seem to have to worry about squeezing their roster upgrades into a 10MM budget surplus. But that’s another issue.
Dave our payroll was at 118m when we had that horrible 100/100 season. Why couldn’t it be expanded to around that number?
Because the M’s don’t want to lose money. Attendance is going to be down 15-20% from the 2008 team (which drew 2.3 million- this team might not draw 2 million when it’s all said and done).
It reminds of something someone once told me about dealing with ridership issues in public transportation
Note the word “public” in that. The Mariners are a privately held corporation that among other things is meant to run a profit.
I had a bad feeling the budget for 2011 was kind of screwed. I especially like the part where in essence we’re paying 18 million for a question mark DH AND a pitcher who is useless. Thanks, Bavasi!
Perhaps it was a poor analogy, but certainly private business run at a loss at times in an attempt to achieve larger future gains, right? That was my question. If they spent a little bit more now, would it pay future dividends?
I think the big problem with this season was the Cliff Lee trade. Sure it did help our chances on making the playoffs, and it helped sell tickets, but I always thought, and Dave pointed it out when we traded for him the Type A free agent he will be next season. Two top 50 picks are better than what we gave up for him. Plain and simple. Lee has been awesome this year, and I’d love to see him go to a contender, but I see Jack Z holding onto him, getting as much money out of him as they can, and cashing in on their 3 picks next draft.
I’d also like to see Aardsma traded, although no one in our bullpen seems capable of holding down the closer role. We need a farm system badly, and the quickest way to do that is shuffling some pieces around. We are very limited in what we can do, hopefully Lopez is shoppable by the deadline, and Ackley will be ready by next year.
I disagree that League is ok and Saunders is a question mark, but your point is well taken. They are on the hook for $70 million next year with very little talent to show for it. Four months does allow the team time to bring up a lot of different players to see how they perform on the big stage and evaluate them. In a lost season these players don’t really have that much pressure on them… A Lee trade changes things and I hope they are looking to trade away a few 2011 contracts as well.
This thread depressed me enough that I couldn’t sleep last night.
Why are we always in such a horrendous hole? Why do we always have so many holes to fill?
If they spent a little bit more now, would it pay future dividends?
It might. On the other hand, the Mariners DID spend a bunch of money under Bill Bavasi, and it got them a crappy roster than lost 100 games, and dragged the Mariners down.
One might also note that while we love Jack Zduriencik, his results so far on roster moves aren’t entirely unmixed: the Mariners are likely to have spent ~15 million on Snell and Wilson and maybe gotten one or two WAR out of the deal (and you can’t blame Bavasi for that one), and while the Bradley/Silva deal was justifiable at the time, the M’s are basically going to blow ~30 million in salary over two years on a 1 WAR DH. Add Chone Figgins to that (also not anything you can blame Bavasi for), and Howard and Chuck might be perfectly justified in saying “how do we know you won’t end up wasting money again if we add millions to your budget”?
Montero is in AAA and rapes the ball
I’m not certain that means what you think it means.
It’s bad enough that shes not hot, but damn she’s annoying.
I swear I remember there being a no-sexism policy here.
Thank Bavasi for such trades as Shin-Soo Choo for Ben Broussard, Asdrubal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez, and 5 players for Erik Bedard.
There are quite a few players kicking around Triple-A who could potentially help the Mariners next year, but need a shot to show what they can do in the big leagues.
So, basically, it’s time another Large Item Pickup Day?
But when your starting catcher, starting shortstop, starting left-fielder, starting DH platoon, fifth man in the rotation, and your long reliever are all guys that you picked up on the curb, well, then you just have too much crap on the roster.
To continue…
That gives the team an $80 million payroll before they go shopping. We have to assume the budget will be in the low $90 millions again next year, giving the team just over $10 million to spend. That doesn’t go very far when you need two starting pitchers, a starting first baseman, a catcher who can play at least half the time, a whole new bench, possibly a designated hitter, and maybe another arm in the bullpen.
That’s the problem I see- everything you wrote about recently in the Large Item Pickup Day post is absolutely right. You can’t build a contender off of other organization’s rejects. Fill one or two holes, sure, but huge swaths of a roster?
I know, there will be trades to complement that. The problem I see is that I don’t see how JUST Cliff Lee + dumpster diving + Dustin Ackley does everything we need, and we simply can’t expect to pull off the Gutierrez trade every time we deal from now and 2011: sometimes it’s going to be the Wilson/Snell deal. That’s just how it works.
This really sounds like we’re screwed until 2012, when a lot of dead money (I’m looking at you, Milton, Carlos and Jack) comes off the roster.
I know this might spawn a lot of hatered, but I read an article from Jason Churchill recently about possible Lee suiters and he mentioned that Ichiro’s salary was hurting the team the most. I was so pissed I stopped reading, but it also got me thinking and maybe kind of agreeing. With the money they give Ichiro, Churchill suggested we could get 2 slightly above average players to:
1) Replace him in RF and
2) Fill a hole at another key hitting position i.e. 1B
And I think I might have read a comment from Dave a while back, not quite sure though could have been elsewhere, that as long as Ichiro is our best hitter we cannot be successful. He is the best pure hitter I’ve seen since Gwynn, but he can’t carry the team to a pennant!
Maybe it’s time to move on?
Trading Ichiro is not an option. He is worth more to the Mariners than he is to any other franchise … and no other franchise is going to spend $17/18M a year for Ichiro’s levels of production. The face of the franchise will not be traded. Nor should he. He is not worth his salary in terms of production on the field – we all recognized that – but he is worth what he is being paid in terms of the “business” of the Seattle Mariners. He, like Felix – is an untouchable in terms of potential trades. His salary is hurting the team in terms of their overall allowable payroll, but that is a limitation that the organization has set on itself. However, he is in no way hurting the team or their “business.” The organizations self imposed payroll limitations – and why they have chosen to set them at the levels they have set them – is another matter. They could spend more. Then again, they could spend more wisely too. Other teams are doing it (Tampa Bay, Minnesota, etc). It’s not a long list of “etc’s” but there is a list. I think the M’s should go balls to the wall to sign Carl Crawford in the off-season and plunk his ass down in the 3 hole of the batting order. Then again, I don’t have to write the checks. Keeping some young guys around who are still developing and making the ML minimum is a must approach for all decisions the Mariners make going forward … or in their case going sideways or backward. No more discussion on Ichiro trade “possibilities” please … it makes me feel like puking on my shoes. No offense to your personally DJTIZZO.
Trust me, the thought of Ichiro not being a Mariner makes we wanna cut my wrists…..but I watched Griffey leave, I watched Randy leave, I watched Alex leave……
We’d get over it! Good point on the money he brings in though. I didn’t really take that into consideration and neither did the article that I was referring to. He does bring a giant fan base to this team. But, so did Jr!
I know this is becoming a venting thread rather than a 2011 roster thread, but let’s keep the obvious in mind – the broadcasters have a different audience. Being obvious is part of the
job. Same with Blowers and Sims and Dave N.
he mentioned that Ichiro’s salary was hurting the team the most.
How is having a 4-5 WAR player performing at a 4-5 WAR salary “hurting the team”?
What’s hurting the team is that Wilson, Snell and Bradley combined make MORE than Ichiro’s salary, and as a composite have provided LESS value in 2010 than any three random AAA players we could put in their roster spots.
For Seattle to get max value for Cliff Lee, they’re going to have to sell him as more than a rental — but rather as a guy who can win you a World Series.
As an example off the top of my head with an organization that isn’t being talked about … Tampa Bay right now is getting excellent pitching from Jeff Niemann. However, say that tapers off over the coming weeks. The Rays know they lose Crawford (and Pena, I think) in the offseason, and they have a deep system, so this would be a good year for them to spend some of those assets to improve their postseason chances.
Why wouldn’t they do something like Wade Davis or Jeremy Hellickson, Jake McGee or Matt Moore, and another good prospect for Lee, especially if they think the alternative is seeing him in a Yankee or Red Sox uniform? Obviously they aren’t dealing Desmond Jennings, since he’s pegged to take over for Crawford next year, but they have so many good young pitchers that this seems like a great time to spend some of those future assets for a true game-changer.
That would give Tampa a postseason rotation of Lee, Price, Garza and Shields, and I don’t see a team that could match that firepower. It would also be a much better return for Seattle than it gave up for Lee in the first place.
I think Churchill was referring to his SALARY and not is PERFOMANCE as what was hurting the team. Ichiro is a great player, everyone knows that, its undisputed!
I think Churchill was referring to his SALARY
And that’s still dumb. Paying a good player a good salary isn’t a problem. The problem is we might as well have set every dollar we paid to Ian Snell on fire this year, and much the same could be said for almost ALL of the offseason acquisitions.
Agree completely
Ichiro’s value so far in 2010 has been worth $8.1 million in salary, about what he is being paid. How is this a problem? The team only has 23 wins and he has been responsible for two by himself. Look at the value tables on Fangraphs.
Accordint to COTS, Ichiro is $18 mill this year….how is $8.1 and $18 about the same?
Bermanator: I like it! I have long thought that Tampa was a potential suitor for Lee – with a potential ++ return for the Mariners. Good input, logic and supporting detail for your opinion. I would rather see Lee go to Tampa for no other reason than to see him stick it up the Yankees ass on the way to or within the Playoffs.
I think that it’s quite possible that we, here at USSM, will be unhappy with whatever the team might choose to do with Cliff Lee.
I just have this feeling that trading Cliff won’t provide the obvious solutions to all of this teams problems nor will it give us a bunch of all-stars who can pay immediate dividends…and people here will argue that we should have kept him for picks.
And if we kept him for the picks we’d get since he’s likely to opt for free agency for next year, we probably won’t be able to draft a bunch of studs who can play in the majors quickly enough to prevent us from arguing that we should have traded him at the deadline.
I still think that Z’s got a smart head on his shoulders and will make the best deals possible. Maybe not the best deals that we THINK he can make, but the best deals he can actually make…
But I see another rough year next year…and it’ll be tougher and tougher not to seem negative about everything.
The season isn’t over. That’s how it’s about the same. Ichiro has been worth that in 60 games. He still has 102 more games to earn the other $9.9m.
It could be worse. We could still have the “prospects” that we traded for Cliff Lee and had nobody to trade worth trading at the deadline. We also did get to see Cliff Lee in a Mariner uniform completely dominate opposing teams. The M’s record would probably be worse without Lee every fifth day. I also wish the M’s had sold high on Lopez, Lowe, and Aardsma last year. I am also mad that the M’s continue to throw money at Bedard.
Good points pgreyy … and thank you for adding some additional “balance” to the discussion. I do think everyone is trying to provide as much balance as they can within the confines of attempting to sort out and get over the misery that this season has already caused – while looking forward to the future.
In fact, the Mariners need Lee. They should make him an offer he “can’t refuse,” but that doesn’t mean he will indeed accept the offer. They are better off with him than without him. Since that doesn’t appear to be a likely outcome, you are right … there will be a never ending sea of doubt in regard to what the best move should have been in comparison to whatever move the FO does actually end up making.
The team needs many, many things and bringing FA’s to Seattle is not the easiest sell (for hitters particularly), but in light of recent events and team performance, it is not going to get any easier. Building through the draft and an occasional trade (if you can find a willing trade partner) is maybe as good as it is going to get. Overpaying for FA busts has been done to death and the FO is gun shy about doing it again. Figgins is not yet a bust. He will perform. I don’t mind that he got pissed off about being put in the 9-hole. So what … play pissed, perform better – get your old job back! The team would probably also like to give him a chance to hit leadoff for a few games, but they have decided that would be synonymous with traversing over sacred ground. Again, I say … so what. Give it a shot – tell Ichiro the team needs to see how it might work. It’s not like they don’t have time and opportunity to experiment now. They have 100 games left to experiment.
I think Z does have a good head on his shoulders because not so long ago he was “in Z we trust” … in virtually everybody’s opinion. I haven’t seen any posts with that statement in a long time, so I will make it … with a caveat. “In Z we have to trust” He is currently the horse we are riding.
But in other news, according to a poll conducted of MLB players by SI; the M’s have the nicest guy in baseball.
Can we please move Ichiro! to the third spot in the order, and see how many home runs he can hit the rest of the year? Wouldn’t it be fun to see him hit 20 or so out the rest of the season, and then the haters can shut up.
As long as you accept that, there won’t be a change. You have to spend money to make money, in any business.
Neither of us have any way to know what profit margin the Ms have, or are trying for, or need as a baseline. In the absence of direct access to the books to see the literal bottom line, it’s just as reasonable to expect a business to figure out what it costs to put out quality product and then spend that, as it is to roll over and estimate what we think is some meager, marginal budget.
If they can’t spend what it takes to field quality product, then ownership needs to find that funding from somewhere else, sell to someone who can afford it. Or go with what you’re suggesting, which is more bargain-basement shopping.
…or, you know, do what a lot of other teams do and build up their farm. Spending lots of money gets you Miguel Batista, Carlos Silva, and Richie Sexson. It also strips away your top draft pick.
You’d think so… but apparently this baseball team, in this town, doesn’t operate like any other baseball team, or any other private business anywhere.
This is an interesting point. At the very least, getting to see Lee pitch once every 5 days would be a nice compensation prize for watching the rest of the season go to hell. From a purely selfish fan point of view, not thinking about Lee’s value, the team’s needs or the long-term benefits of what we can get for him, it’d be great to just keep him. Let other teams twist in the wind. I hate seeing the Ms be a glorified farm system or holding pen for contending teams. I’d love to see the Yankees, Red Sox, etc. fall over themselves to try to get Lee and then have to make do without him.
I’d also love to see the Ms actually build around someone like Lee, and not perpetuate the feeling that somehow the Ms specifically and Seattle in general doesn’t deserve someone of his talent. You have to start somewhere. If Jack and company can convince him that the Ms are going somewhere, and that they’ll get him the run support he needs in a season or two, and that getting the Ms back to the postseason here would make him an icon in Seattle forever… why not?
Why does the Ms fanbase always have to settle for second best, for later on, for “we’ll get ‘em next year”? Why must a premiere player only be seen in terms of what prospects we can get for them, instead of someone to build around?
Why doesn’t Seattle deserve, go after, and lock up someone like Cliff Lee?
Just because this franchise has spent lots of money on those players, doesn’t mean that’s all you can get when you spend money.
And just because you have lots of money doesn’t mean you’d just blow it on one or two “key to the franchise” players. (Though it’d be nice to see the occasional quality investment, as I ranted about above re: Lee.)
That money could go a long way to getting pieces that could round out the farm. Think international signings. Think better role players than we have now, that could be flipped for prospects. And so on.
Is it reasonable to ask if the M’s might give Ackley some PT this season in the bigs? Or is he still too raw for the call up? The seasons over, it wont hurt anything really……his confidence I guess if he can’t perform, but I think he’s capable of putting up at least avgerage numbers!
Ditto!
Exactly!
They need him. They know they need him. They should try to find a way to keep him. For all I know – they are doing just that. Their self imposed budget is a pain in their own ass. THEY ARE NINTENDO.
On most days, they are only going to be as good as that days starting pitcher. The team knows they have no chance to win when they send guys like Snell and Hyphen to the mound … and then they play like they know it. And then, it snowballs. Build around your studs if you can. If you can’t – then move on. Make the effort, spin the effort if it blows up … but make the damn effort.
Chris, I’ve noticed a number of times that you seem to have this notion that if Mariners fans somehow express precisely the correct kind of outrage in precisely the correct way, we can somehow create a situation in which the Mariners add substantial money to the payroll. It’s an interesting idea, but I wonder if you could explain how this might work. It seems to me there are two things fans can do.
1) complain loudly in public and semi-public forums.
2) stop supporting the team financially (primarily via attendence) until a greater investment in the team is made.
It seems extremely unlikely, to put it mildly, that management would be at all responsive in the way you’d like them to be to either of those strategies. (If anything, the latter strategy is at least as likely, if not much more so, to result in lower payroll).
How is this supposed to work?
What about Lou Marson? He fits the bill of a defensive catcher they’ve been searching for in the draft and probably has a higher offensive ceiling than any catcher we have now.
“Trading Ichiro is not an option. He is worth more to the Mariners than he is to any other franchise … and no other franchise is going to spend $17/18M a year for Ichiro’s levels of production. The face of the franchise will not be traded. Nor should he. He is not worth his salary in terms of production on the field – we all recognized that – but he is worth what he is being paid in terms of the “business” of the Seattle Mariners. ”
I wouldn’t completely rule out trading him. In some ways I would compare his situation to the last few years of Gary Payton’s career here: Aging but still effective player on a team in the depths of rebuilding. Probably won’t be as effective by the time the team is good again. Coveted by other teams …
It doesn’t appear that the team will be contending in the next 2 years, by which point Ichiro’s contract will be finished and he will be 38 years old. I’m sure he can still play at a high level but it’s not as if the M’s are going to sign him to a 7 year deal. In fact is it even a certainty that he would return to the M’s? I’m not so sure. The club has had only 3 winning seasons in the last 8 years. Perhaps both sides might agree a change is in their best interests.
I believe that if a team offers the right package in return anyone on this team except Felix and Guti should be available.
Wow. Djw, that’s an extremely valid thing to call me on.
You’re right that an individual fan, or even some sort of organized fan effort, will have zero effect on the budget or decision-making of the front office.
I think when I express these sorts of things, it’s more about what I’d want to see, what gives me confidence in the front office, what kind of armchair quarterbacking I’d do, etc. It’s much more about my enjoyment and my vision of what a great baseball team would look like, than a realistic suggestion or some sort of weird “activist fandom”, so to speak.
It’s also an expression of my frustration of how much the Ms fetishize and make money off of 1995, and how the Ms market to casual fan / tourist destination / family, and seem to build just the minimal team needed to make that profitable.
You’ve given me good food for thought on how I vent or critique in the future. Thanks.
Quick, random thoughts, not deep analysis so I can withstand any comments. Apologies for duplicating any recent posts (and congratulations for you posters for being so brilliant!)
2012 is when Wak and Z’s contracts are up so that is the year we should expect a solid team (and the budget points to that). M’s aren’t going to get rid of them before that. We just finished the second draft of Z’s regime, haven’t even announced any signings yet. That is Z’s strength and the reason he was brought in. He’s already improved it tremendously, it’s just not going to pay major league dividends yet.
Money is not flowing into baseball, or the M’s, as it was in the past. Budget increases are a pipe dream for all of you ‘free spenders’ out there. The New Stadium Effect has worn off for us, plus we’ve sucked a lot, so attendance is not going to improve soon. We shouldn’t spend our money on established players anyway. It never works here. Seattle is a great place to start your career (Junior, A-Rod, Edgar, Tino, Omar, Reynolds, Davis, Langston, Tartabull, Boone, etc., etc, etc.), jump-start your career (Bone, Unit, Freddy, Guillen, Guti, Dan Wilson), or resurrect your career (Moyer, Boone again, Sele, Olerud, Aardsma, Branyan, Cameron), but it’s a horrible place to continue your career (Fasserro, Cirillo, O’Brien, Cowens, Beltre, Sexson, Spiezio, Aurilia, Silva, Bedard, Bradley…?, Figgins…?) If an established player isn’t a bust immediately, they rarely live up to the life of their contract or return the value we gave up. We’d do best to develop our own or trade for ready prospects rather than spend for outsiders. Dumb GM’s and Win Now GM’s have crippled this franchise for much of its history. This year’s team was a patchwork of bargains and risky investments – as will next year’s probably – so that we can get back to being a decent, long-term, sustainable organization like the Twins or Angels, or the Dodgers used to be for decades. At least that’s my hope.
We also went “a bridge too far” this season, thinking we had the magic touch. Too many head cases couldn’t be healed and resurrected at the same time by our ‘new wave’ organization. Chemistry is primarily the result of winning, but there is a component that comes from good people and not just winning. You can’t turn a turd into a tuna sandwich every meal though. Our coaches had some success last year improving players and brought on too many more project players and tried to change too many things in too many aspects of the game at once. It may pay dividends down the road but I think they’ve done more harm than good so far this season. We also implemented new clubhouse food, weight training, yoga, and on and on and on. While these may all be good ideas, we should’ve started with the minor leaguers and introduced them gradually. We couldn’t keep fragile, old players from being fragile and old with new techniques, especially if they don’t buy into them. Bring back cheeseburgers and free weights for the old guys and train the kids in the new ways. While I’m at it, if the eye exercises that Edgar and Branyan used made them better, why isn’t ’he new wave Mariners pushing them?
Every new regime has their eyes on undervalued assets they know of they could bring in, but those dry up with each season. Jack corralled the good ones last year, this year’s were more of the Large Item Pickup variety. There’ll be fewer ‘steals’ out there next year. That’s just the nature of it. And everybody, well at least most teams, is aware of sabremetrics by now. I think we’re still seeing the lingering effects of the steroid/HGH (and amphetamines) era on both statistical analysis and player evaluation. A guy may be clean now but he got big (and stayed healthy) with help. I wish we had 25 of Ichiro when it came to training.
And please, are we so desperate as to think we’re going to improve by picking up Royals rejects? I think Kila will be in the bigs if and when he’s ready and K.C. is out from underneath Jose Guillen’s contract. They’re not going to just give him away if he’s any good. Let’s run Carp, Nelson, and Everidge out there first, we already own them.
2010 was a too much, too soon. A bet we lost, but we still have more chips than we started with. And we sure had a good buzz this winter when it’s needed most. Let’s hope we pawn off Wilson or Bradley and any small part of their salaries before the end of the season too. They’re not going to be any part of moving forward. The good news is that if we do sign any free agents this next winter we shouldn’t lose our draft pick; we’re certainly going to be in the top fifteen.
I agree to both. Gordon is just too young to call him an all-time organizational bust. And it baffles me that no one has stepped in and wanted to give Ka’aihue a shot, and traded for him yet.
It’s equally baffling to me why Gordon hasn’t panned out any better than what he has, though. I mean, this guy was regarded as one of the more surefire prospects for them in years, I heard “off-the charts ceiling” for his hitting tool’s description at least twice.
But maybe he just needs a change of scenery. Didn’t help us with Snell, but if the right deal’s in place, I can see Gordon being WELL worth the gamble.
And Lord knows the Royals aren’t adverse to having players with Mariner history on their roster.
What would it take to land Ka’aihue AND Gordon? I know some guys I’d RATHER see go and saddled to KC, but I’m assuming we have to give up seeming-proportionate quality.
Maybe Jose Lopez, Adam Moore and sell high on a prospect, like Alex Liddi (whom I give no real chance on becoming a star)?
Greg Halman wouldn’t make me cry to say good-bye to, either.
Why do people keep insisting Ichiro could hit for a lot of power if he just wanted to? It’s pure nonsense.
Those three one run losses to the White Sox. The close losses to the Rangers at Safeco earlier this season. Not to mention many other tight games in the later innings. An Ichiro homer would have won several of those games.
But he didn’t want to? An infield hit was going to help more?
Ichiro is a very good player and one of my favorites but to think he can hit for power just because he does in batting practice is rediculous.
The M’s need a Morneau, Miguel Cabrera, Longoria, Braun. A hitter for average and power.
Ichiro is a nice compliment but not a bat that can carry a team.
As long as we’re venting (and picking on the pregame color announcer/postgame ubiquitous microphone girl has to be the depths of venting), here’s one for the Yuni haters to sink their teeth into.
Oakland has been successful with plugging in AA arms into starting roles. We should copy them, and bring up Michael Pineda for the starting rotation next year, as well as Steven Hensley. At some point we would have to shut them down to not get their innings up too much, but we have other serviceable options for fill in starters. This same approach could apply to our bullpen; it worked pretty well with Shawn Kelley.
I also think that we should have attempted to pick up Kila last year.
Shanfan – You had me at “You can’t turn a turd into a tuna sandwich”. Nice post.
And, interestingly, I also noticed Jim Presley’s name mentioned in that article as well under the M’s all-time bottom feeders in OBP per their first 2k at bats…
If Edgar doesn’t get into the HOF sometime within the next few years, Presley — or, should I say, the organization’s overvalue of him — will be a contributing factor as to why he didn’t.
Shanfan…great post and some funny stuff.
Does anyone know if fan favorite Chris Snelling is still in professional baseball?
It does seem like there are other organizations that are also looking under rocks for assets that may be useful. Big spenders like the Yankees and Red Sox do not trade prospects for established vets…they wait throw big money during the off season, but trading away assets appears to be among very old school teams like the Phillies. I don’t see a big market for Cliff Lee.
Or, they trade crappy and overrated ones for them (see: Davis, Russ and Hitchcock, Sterling).
Cliff Lee will be the best pitcher available, at the lowest price (in terms of salary), who will bring back a pair of draft picks next season if he isn’t re-signed.
There will absolutely be a big market for Cliff Lee.
I realize you intended these to be “quick comments” but to take one of your examples, the new workout programs, that’s exactly what’s happening. And the same for food, and so on — it’s not as if they were serving Famous Bowls last season and switched entirely to tofu and mixed greens every day. This criticism doesn’t hold up.
Were you in a coma in 2001?
*Toast* the official food of the Seattle Mariners organization
How bout a commercial where Jack and Wak are standing around eating some. Yum. Ichiro stops by, maybe Figgy. Felix drops in. Dustin. Man, toast. Yum.
2001 Ichiro had a .381 obp with 8 homers. Really carried us.
242 hits, 56 stolen bases, .369 wOBA, 117.4 wRC (second on the team only to Boone), 6.1 WAR (second again only to Boone).
That’s pretty damn close to carrying the team.
That’s utter nonsense. If Edgar never makes it into the Hall of Fame, it has little to do with Jim Presley and the Mariners, and almost everything to do with Edgar Martinez as a player.
I don’t write this as an invitation or attempt to discuss this — this is certainly not the time and place for that. I would just encourage you to take a close look at everything that was going on at the time without the advantage of seeing everything from the perspective we have now, 25 years into the future.
It’s just a knee-jerk response to what you posted — take it for whatever you think it’s worth.
Because six years of Hellickson is worth way, way more than half a year of Cliff Lee, 6 years of Wade Davis probably is too, Matt MOore and Jake McGee aren’t worth Lee, and with their ridiculous depth of talent Tampa Bay is built to keep up a sustained run and doesn’t have to throw their chips in to take one shot at winning it all. There’s no match here. Some teams will gut the farm to make a run, but not the Rays. Nothing to see here. Move on.
Granted, there seems to be a tougher hill to climb for DH’s, so that may or may not affect things in Edgar’s case. But if the 3k hit plateau is regarded as a benchmark, he might have at least had a chance of getting there had the FO at the time not been screwing around with both Ken Phelps and Jim Presley on the roster while Edgar was wasting away in the minors and could’ve been called up sooner than he was.
But, as you said, it’s all now ancient history, so I guess it doesn’t really matter these days.
The thing I don’t want to see is us dumpster diving for relievers this year or next. We have enough questionable control starters to turn into relievers in our system.
What we don’t have is a legit 1b power bat, and I’m all for trying to pick up Prince Fielder if he is okay with a 4 year contract. If he can’t stay at 1b and has to DH we still have Raben, Poythress, Liddi, and maybe Wiswall for 1b. I think the idea that the Mariners can work without a bopper is being sorely tested this year. Fact is, we aren’t a national league team.
By the way moderators, this is a new account, but I used to go by micahjr. Please take me out of the moderation queue. I like HarryHaller better, Hermann Hesse character that was a psychological parallel to himself in the novel Steppenwolfe. I’m sure Jay Yencich is familiar.