It’s Not All Bad
Dave · August 16, 2010 at 10:39 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Dispatches from Tacoma.
Dustin Ackley: 3 for 6, 2 doubles, walk-off HR
Justin Smoak: 2 for 3, 2 walks
Michael Pineda: 5 1/3 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 7 K
Josh Lueke: 2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 2 K
Oh, and just because its funny:
Rob Johnson: 0 for 4, walk, passed ball – his third in eight games for the Rainiers.
And that run on Lueke required TWO errors. That’s tough for any pitcher to get around.
I heard Cliff Lee is planning on signing with Tacoma next season instead of the Yankees because he just likes pitching to Rob Johnson just so gosh darn much. Just ask Salk.
Johnson only got that passed ball because Pineda throws some wicked stuff.
I’m really excited about seeing these guys up with the Mariners, whenever that happens. I’m sure it’s exacerbated by the travails of the team this year – but even if the M’s were doing well, it’d still be exciting.
I can’t blame Johnson.
Pitchers just throw so hard… Have you ever caught a 95mph pitch? Even with a catchers mit, ouch!
And then these same pitchers have the audacity to expect you to catch these “curved balls”, “splitters”, and “change-ups”. It’s almost like they’re TRYING to confuse you.
If you ask me, I wouldn’t even attempt it unless someone paid me around half a million dollars, I had some sort of protective equipment, and some kind of foreknowledge of what kind of zany pitch the pitcher was going to throw.
I would catch a 9-inning game with my bare crotch for half a million dollars.
Hey, on the subject of Tacoma players, Smoak didn’t burn a year of team ownership this year did he? A little more than half a season in the bigs means we still got six more seasons, right?
Also, I got $5 on jephdood’s bare crotch caught game. Anybody else willing to throw in? Only $499,995 to go!
Service Time is calculated by the day – he needs 172*3 = 516 days of time on the active roster or DL to become arb-eligible. Though a Super Two player only need 475 or so days of service.
I’m guessing if he gets called back up in September he’ll end up with around 150 days total service time by the end of 2010. If he’s on the big club all of 2011 and 2012, he’ll be arb eligible in 2013, but not before. He would probably have to spend two months in Tacoma over the course of 2011/2012 in order to push his arb date back to 2014. *
But we don’t want that. We want him on the big league club thumping the baseball off of and over the wall.
* note, maybe only one month, I’m not entirely sure, because it would probably be Super Two status that triggered it, and that’s defined as the top 17 percent of guys with service time over 344 days but less than 516 days, so it depends on how much other young guys play. Bottom line, he probalby won’t spend enough time in AAA this year to give the team an extra year of club control.
Though I don’t think Super Two status effects FA, it’s just for Arbitration. He still needs 6 years (6*172 days) to become a FA. But if he’s performing, he’ll be making a few million per in his Arb years.
Texas had already saved Smoak’s free agency clock (172 days = one service year, there is about 182/183 days in a season, so clubs can wait two weeks).
As for arbitration, if he stays in Tacoma through the end of their regular season, it would be the equivalent of him being called up June 1, which could be enough to prevent his being a Super-Two.
I’d be interested to know what previous cutoff dates have been for arbitration.
Two points… His club control through 2016 is secure. And he’d have ~127 days in 2010 if he stays in Tacoma through their regular season.
Nice game by the AAA guys…Nick Franklin on the other hand won the platinum sombrero going 0-6 with 5 strikeouts!
The only reason the Rainiers were in the game at all was because RoJo was watching the feet of the opposing batters so beautifully all night long.
Somehow, it isn’t as exciting as it should be to see players like these doing good (and Adam Moore and Michael Saunders having some big hits in Baltimore last night), because, in the back of my mind, is the fear that whoever manages the club will continue to use White in high leverage situations. Can’t help thinking that.
poor Rob.
Are Ackley, Smoak, and/or Pineda going to be ready for next summer?
I really believe now that Ackley has a good chance to make the team out of spring training.
Much of it will likely depend on how well he plays
2B, but he’s going to the AFL and that can only help. I saw him make a play this weekend where he had to go far to his left to get a hard hit ball and make a tough throw to first and he made it look easy. Offensively, he looks like a polished hitter in AAA.
It’s been so long since we’ve had a prospect with this high of a ceiling come along. It’s going to be fun watching him develop.
I bet he starts the year in AAA whether he’s ready or not. I think the Mariners’ll want the extra year of club control and since everybody seems to agree that he needs work on his defense, they’ll have a good excuse. If we were expecting to seriously contend next year it might be different, but at present that doesn’t seem likley so that’s my guess. Also did anybody else notice that he hasn’t walked in like two weeks? That’s kinda weird.
And thanks, JMHawkins. That’s what I thought, but I’m glad to hear it confirmed by someone else. While it’d be nice to keep him from getting arbitration for an extra year, obviously the main concern is keeping him on the team so hearing that he’s gonna be ours til the end of the 2016 season is definitely what I was hoping for.
Ah, I didn’t realize Texas has saved that much time already, I thought he’d finish 2010 with more days. If he does only finish with 127 days, then he’s probably not Super Two at the end of 2012, though he’d probably be close.
F**kin’ Rob Johnson. I was at Saturday’s game and he muffled two pop UPS behind the plate, well away from the backdrop. Just flat out missed them. The crowd was all over him. Got to see Beavan, Leuke, and Cortes throw. On the scoreboard radar gun, they had Cortes at 101 multiple times. Not much command though.
I’m not a RoJo fan by any stretch of the imagination – but missing two popups? There had to be something going on because I don’t think he’s THAT bad.
I wonder if getting sent down is messing with his head…
BTW if Ackley starts next season in Tacoma… I wonder who’ll be playing second for the Mariners?
Assuming all the service time issues being discussed are a moot point… what else will these guys have to learn from AAA pitching / hitting next year?
If the choice is give up on 2011 by using rentals and get these guys more seasoning in AAA, or give up on 2011 by having low expectations for Ackley, Smoak and Lueke play in the majors all year, I’ll take the latter, please.
Save the money and roster space that would be spent on rent-a-veterans for 2011, bring up the kids, and just invest it in one or two premiere free agents.
The M’s can’t fill the gaps in free agency with an 91M payroll. Count up two 100 loss seasons in 3 years (most likely) and there is no reason to keep throwing money at overpaid veterans who flounder in Seattle. I’m all for the youth movement in 2011. Smoak, Ackley, Pineda, and Lueke will all be better options than Kotchman, Josh Wilson, B. Sweeney, and Seddon.
I went to the game in T-Town last night. Some thoughts, in no particular order:
* Pineda is as good as advertised. He throws free and easy, though I wish his arm slot was a little higher. I’d have to see a lot of pictures and film to be sure, but I worry that he has the same “W” motion that people are worriedly talking about with Strasburg these days. But filthy stuff. In a nutshell, I believe from a K in the 4th: 101 mph for strike two, 86 mph change to put the Round Rocker away. Most hitters had no chance, unless he left the ball up (which he occasionally did; his command was a little less than advertised yesterday).
* Smoak is a patient hitter with a nice stroke, but he looks A LOT less athletic at 1B to me than I expected. One of the errors in the 9th, to send the game into extras, was a ground ball hit pretty much right at Smoak, maybe medium-hard, and it literally went right through his legs. He also had a part (though not the E) in the other error, which was a DP ball that the High-A fella the Rainiers have playing SS probably should have eaten, thrown poorly in the dirt but probably a ball you expect a good defensive 1B to at least block if not dig out. I had a poor angle, so I could be wrong about that, but that’s the way I saw it. Smoak also had another play in that inning, where the ball took a big hop and he looked kind of shakey making the adjustment, but he did. In general: I am just not sure he is as good defensively as he came advertised, and don’t think he has the athleticism to be that guy.
* News Flash: Rob Johnson is really bad. I would have scored him with TWO passed balls. The one he got was about 6-8 inches to the left of his glove and maybe 6 inches above the top of the zone. It was an easy catch, and he barely got his glove on it. The other one, which I believe allowed the tying run in, went through his legs. The ball was in the dirt, but only a little bit…shouldn’t an ostensibly Major League catcher know how to block a ball in the dirt that is right in front of him? It was bad enough that I would seriously have considered giving him the PB rather than a WP to the pitcher, if I was scoring the game….
* As good a game as Ackley had (3-5 I believe, all XBH), he is still getting fooled a fair amount, and I would expect that to be exacerbated at the MLB level. Both outs he made were swinging strikeouts, and he didn’t look good in either one. That said, he knows how to work a count to his favor, and when he gets the pitch he’s looking for, he doesn’t miss it. All three hits were pounded, squarely. That HR went a long way, too. Surprising, developing power? The gap power isn’t surprising (especially with his speed, which is as good as advertised), but he really drove that HR, and it was more line drive than big fly.
* Lueke looks ready to me.
MEMORANDUM
From: Zduriencik, Jack
To: Johnson, Rob
CC: Lincoln, Howard; Armstrong, Chuck
CATCH THE DAMN BALL!
P.S. It’s a lot easier if you’re not looking at the batter’s feet.
Was also at the game last night.
Ackley drove one of his double to the opposite field wall. Tacoma isn’t a small park.
Smoak had two “lazy” errors. The first looked as if he didn’t get in front of the ball enough, down first base side, and the second – as noted – between his legs, just under the glove. He did have a nice field and toss to 2nd in the 9th, which Dominguez then threw away.
The Wild Pitch to tie the game did get between Johnson’s legs, under the glove, but it was thrown in front of the plate. If he is going to play, I’m not sure why he’s hitting 6th.
Pineda does in fact throw a seamless looking 98 mph. He was definitely fooling the hitters with his off speed and they occasionally caught up to his 2-strike fast balls (one for a home run). He was making Chris Shelton look like a toddler.
Does anyone have any info on our unsigned picks? Stanek & Paxton are at the top of my wish list. I know Paxton Re-entered the draft, he will never beat Mark Hendrickson’s record.
Ackley, Smoak, Moore, Saunders.
When was the last time the M’s had a good position player come up from the minors? Lopez? Ha. Adam Jones? Oops.
Maybe the long drought is over, maybe there will be 4 youngsters in the starting lineup next year.
Stanek didn’t sign by the deadline; Paxton wasn’t subject to the deadline, and it sounds like he should be signed soon.
Thank you Ancient. I’m happy with our draft as long as Paxton is involved. We went over slot for Shipers. As long as MLB has a “Don’t make Bud mad” rule on draft picks… I’d Pick every guy I could who would sign. Yankees-Sox-Tigers-… M’s? Bud did take the Pilots.
Actually, we couldn’t fill our gaps with a $191m payroll.
The only couple of players really worth having can get what they want somewhere they would much rather be.
Look to the young guys…that’s our future.
You likely heard my voice in the front row then. I gave him the busines to the point that he actually gave me a glare.
Too bad we need someone to catch the developing pitchers, or we could just punt him somewhere.
I’m not worried about Smoak’s defense. With all due respect to those of you who watched him, scouts have been contradicting claims that his defense is not good since he was a college player and defensive metrics at fangraphs suggest he’s played average defense this season, with plus range for a 1B and 17 out of zone plays.
What pleases me is Smoak’s hitting down in AAA. He’s continuing his I walk more than strike out routine in the minors, 19K/28BB on the season. While it didn’t show up in Seattle, he’s shown the ability to translate that at the MLB level (his K/BB was great in Texas). He’s also hit one home run every 8 at bats. Obviously, I’d like to see his BABIP turn around, but if you regress it properly, there’s not yet any cause for concern. I still believe he will be a good piece in the M’s line up, and will be one by 2012.
Good like finding a scout who likes Smoak’s defense right now. It’s almost impossible to find one who doesn’t think he’s terrible defensively.
I know Diderot that’s why I said “I’m all for the youth movement in 2011.”
I guess I stand corrected. I’d never heard anyone say that scouts don’t like Smoak’s defense before now (http://prospectinsider.com/view/gbu—-cliff-lee-trade-edition/, Goldstein reported plus defense in 2009 and 2010, Bryan Smith repeated the claim when Texas traded him in his why Seattle traded with Texas post at fangraphs.)
Anyway, if this is a new opinion of Smoak’s defense and not a case of saying “This is a kid who’s struggling in lots of ways right now, but we still think he’s better than this”, it strikes me as reason to put less confidence in scouts’ defensive projections, since a three year history gets over turned in–what? a couple months? I get it when a pitcher loses three miles an hour, but with fielding, an extreme reversal just looks like scouts have short memories or form bad judgments in the first place. I’m not saying it’s impossible for a player to lose defensive skills, but (unlike pitching velocity) it’s hard to feel like this comes from something that might be a serious obstacle. (If scouts uniformly panned Adrian Beltre’s defense from now to October, I would not expect anything less than plus-plus defense next April. Slumps happen. Beltre is an extreme case, but I think it goes for Smoak’s three year positive history in a similar, if less pronounced, way.)
Previous comments about service time for Ackley and Smoak talk about service time, FA status etc..but isn’t Ackley’s deal different since he signed a major league contract?
That just means he’s required to be placed on the 40-man roster and is therefore using up option years. Only actual major league service time triggers arbitration and free agency.
Conveniently, Bryce Harper is now in a situation exactly like Ackley’s with respect to options, and Fangraphs did a post today that explains the situation.
Options and Major League Contracts
Oh yeah. It’s really quite funny when nice guys who play for teams we like struggle. Hilarious.
Who cares if Rob Johnson is nice? He’s bad at baseball.
Is that a reason to shit on a guy and find his struggles funny?
Rob Johnson gets adulation far outstripping his actual baseball ability 99% of the time.
I think he’ll survive the other 1%.
Wells – Who is shitting on Rob Johnson, or rooting for his failures, or finding any of it funny? From what I can see of Rob Johnson, I like him. More importantly, his pitchers like him. For both of those reasons, I desperately want him to succeed. But he isn’t succeeding, and until such time as he does, it bothers me that he is taking playing and development time away from better players who can help the team more. As he is, right now, he is not even a AAA-caliber catcher (well, maybe) and certainly not a MLB-caliber catcher.