Smoak’s Defense
When the Mariners traded Cliff Lee for Justin Smoak (and stuff), we summed him up as a switch-hitting first baseman with power, patience, and a good glove. That was the generally accepted scouting report on the Rangers top prospect, who had drawn comparisons to Mark Teixeira coming out of college. In their pre-draft write-up, Baseball America said the following about Smoak’s glove:
As a first baseman, Smoak has Gold Glove-caliber actions and soft hands. His footwork and instincts around the bag are advanced and his arm strength is adequate… He is thought to be the best combination of offense and defense at first base in this draft class.
Two days after the trade, I had a very interesting conversation with a scout who had seen Smoak extensively over the last year. He told me to watch Smoak play for a few weeks, then let him know what I thought of his defense. He’d heard all the glowing reports as well, but after watching him play regularly as a pro, he wasn’t buying it. He mentioned that Smoak was one of the slowest players in the league, and had no athleticism to speak of. Generally, he just wasn’t impressed at all with his defensive abilities.
I took his challenge, and tried to watch as much of Smoak’s defense at first base when he was in Seattle as I could. I grudgingly agreed with his assessment – he was slow, the footwork wasn’t great, and I didn’t see anything that made me think he was a good defender in the making. Since he got optioned back to Tacoma, I’ve talked with a few more people who have seen him play regularly who feel the same way – they’re shocked when they watch him play, because we’ve all heard the “future gold glover” talk.
Trying to figure out what’s going on, I sought out a few more scouts whose work I respect. Neither of the guys I talked to work for the Mariners, so they don’t have a stake in his future. I was hoping one of them would point out something I was missing. Nope – just more “that guy is slow” and “I don’t get it either” talk.
At this point, I’m struggling to find anyone who likes Justin Smoak’s defensive abilities, much less projects him as a high quality defender. Speed and athleticism aren’t everything at first base – after all, Casey Kotchman might be the slowest guy in baseball – but I’m scratching my head at the reports of him being a plus glove. In the time I’ve watched him play, I don’t see it, and neither do a variety of scouts I’ve talked with.
I still believe in the bat, as the power and patience are legitimate, and he’s got enough offensive potential to be a good player even without adding much in the way of defensive value. However, I’m a little less excited about the guy than I was when the Mariners made the deal. The Mark Teixeira comparisons seem like a bit of a pipe dream at this point. A switch-hitting Justin Morneau, pre-2010 crazy breakout, is probably more along what we should expect. That’s still a nice player, of course, but that’s more of +3 to +4 win guy than true superstar.
I assume Smoak hasn’t somehow gone way downhill defensively in a couple of years which suggests Baseball America got bad information on him. Does this mean they didn’t actually see him play? That one guy saw him make a couple nice plays and extrapolated to skills that aren’t there.
How does a prospect get the rep as a ++ defensive guy and the skillset to back it up when he’s a minus? At the major league level a couple web gems will do this for you, but still no one suggests Jeter has great range.
This certainly calls into question the ability to evaluate prospects – one of the organizations obviously got this one wrong. But certainly glad to hear that the bat is for real.
Does this mean they didn’t actually see him play?
The BA guys saw him play a lot, and they talked to a lot of people who saw him play a lot. It’s just weird.
How does a prospect get the rep as a ++ defensive guy and the skillset to back it up when he’s a minus?
I don’t know. This doesn’t happen very often.
Not that it matters now, but does this make you wish they had taken the Montero deal now?
I’m still pretty excited about Smoak regardless.
Maybe we can just stick a return to sender tag on him and put Feliz or Holland on the exchange form? I don’t really care I guess…if he can play adequate 1B, get on base a lot and occasionally knock some runs in, we’re looking at a huge upgrade over what we had regardless.
This post makes me sad! Shame on you for hitting us with this one on a Friday-should have saved it for Monday!
The Mariners were destined to make the wrong choice regardless. If we had got Montero, he would have left baseball to become a priest while Smoak made the 2011 All-Star team. Let’s just admit we’re cursed, will always be cursed, and that’s that.
Not that it matters now, but does this make you wish they had taken the Montero deal now?
No, but mainly because of Safeco. The M’s just can’t really afford to have their best sluggers at positions like 1B be right-handed, since the park neutralizes their best skill. Montero’s not going to be a good defender at first base either, and while he’ll probably outhit Smoak long term, the way Safeco plays makes Smoak a more valuable commodity for the M’s.
It may be the talent upgrade. I mean, the college game is way different than pro baseball obviously. He may have graded out as ++ in college but that skill set didn’t transfer to the pro game. I know, it sounds weird. It sounds weird to me saying that. But, with all the evaluation, its the only thing I can really think of. Perhaps, maybe the foot speed wont change but as he settles in to the MLB his glove will eventually respond too. He maybe concentrating a little too much on hitting the baseball instead of fielding it.
First base is the least important position defensively, right? So if Smoak grades out below-average as opposed to above-average, that’s a swing of, what, five runs? Ten? That’s 0.5-1.0 WAR, but I don’t see it impacting his value *that* much. He’s still going to be a good hitter and a quality contributor to the next good Mariner team.
Even with Safeco, I think I’d still rather have Montero — dude could hit the ball out of Yellowstone when he gets hold of it — but at this point I’d definitely rather have Beavan and Lueke than McAllister and Adams, and maybe Lawson will be useful, too; taken all in all, I don’t think we have any real reason for regret.
I disagree with the Justin Morneau comparison, considering he hasn’t posted a negative UZR since 2004, his first real time in the bigs. It sounds like the expectations defensively are, at best, slightly above average defense. I would be looking at Billy Butler and Adam Dunn (probably somewhere in between) for Smoak’s probable performance. This should still produce around the same WAR but with a more comparable skillset.
Perhaps there’s something to the suggestions that he was rushed to the bigs, and that he needed more bake time. It’d be nice if what people are seeing now are just nerves and trying to do too much too soon.
I hope he has the right coaches at the minor and major league level to just get him back to doing whatever he was doing when BA got their information on him.
I know it’s a very small sample size and means basically nothing, but 0.7 UZR!
I’d like to see Kotchman, Smoak and Moore in a race.
None of them could be slower than Alvin Davis was.
/HanSolo Voice/ C’mon, let’s keep a little optimism here! /end/
What about John Olerud?
Olerud always looked like he was moving in slow-mo, but somehow (anticipation? Long reach?) he usually came up with the ball.
Doesn’t Smoak have a chronic hamstring issue?When did he injure it initially, was it in college, or as a pro?
An injured hammie will undoubtedly have an effect on his game. I’m glad I didn’t buy the gold-glove Texeira hype. In full disclosure I did buy the average-above average glove. In the end, I don’t think Smoak will be worse than Sexson, or Branyan. And if we survived with those guys at 1B, Smoak should be fine.
Wait is that Tug Huelett’s music? Yep.. back in Tacoma
Slowest mariners
Richie Zisk
Alvin ” Mr Mariner” Davis
Bill “Scrap Iron” Stinson
Bill Hall circa 2009
Gorman “Storman Gorman” Thomas
John Olerud
Is there any team in baseball as adept as the M’s at amassing overrated DHs?
Slowest Mariner Ever:
Edgar Martinez!…..I love the guy, but Edgar made Cecil Fielder look like Carl Lewis.
Is there any team in baseball as adept as the M’s at amassing overrated DHs?
I was reluctantly thinking the exact same thing.
Also, I would offer up Randy Johnson for slowest. If not the slowest-definitely most awkward when trying to move quickly.
Slow guys always look like they are running uphill going from first to third.
Gee, so many to choose from.
I’ll add Ibanez and Sexson to the list.
And who could forget Turbo? I wish I could.
Actually, the slowest movement by any Mariner was Batista walking off the mound.
spankystout:
Martinez was slow when he was old and banged up. When he was young he had ok speed. All the other guys mentioned by zrack with the exception of Hall started out slow.
Edgar did have his ‘speed’ taken away from him by injuries. But he still played, and was slow as death.
How about Ben Broussard as my non-injury induced lack of foot speed Mariner.
Slowest Mariners?
And no one mentions (S)Lopez? Or Carlos “Hustle” Silva?
(You could also go way back and mention Richie Zisk… When he broke from the batter’s box he looked like a tank, in neutral, trying to get pushed up a steep hill by a bunch of girl scouts.)
Oops, just noticed Zisk already got a mention…
Olerud’s vacuum cleaner arm was and is a huge exception.
Decent DH/1B types can be had by driving around town and looking for a “Free DH/1Bs!” sign.
I think Smoak’s power potential has fallen under the radar a bit. I watched the guy extensively in the summer of 2006 down in Cape Cod when he was with the Cotuit Kettleers. He pulled a ball (from the right side, his unnatural side) over a left field scoreboard and a patch of trees. The entire crowd was awestruck. In all seriousness, the ball must’ve traveled 450 feet. I’m no scout, but it’s easy to notice that he has a reparable hole or two in his swing, most notably his tendency to take a giant uppercut. I think if the swing is leveled out a bit, his contact rates will increase a bit, and the crazy infield popout rate will go down, which will likely allow his raw power to better translate into his everyday game. I still think this guy can be a star.
You ever wonder how long a game would take if Batista had pitched to Fisk sometime in his career?
Edgar was as slow as 2009 Bill Hall even before the leg injuries. Don’t let those 14 SB in 1992 fool you – Edgar was not a fast man. Just a hitting machine.
Glad to see my observation from Monday’s Rainiers trek confirmed by those with more seasoned eyes:
I spoke to Curto after the game, too, and one of the things we talked about was this very thing. Mike said he’s seen the same thing and that has been one of the most surprising things to him about Smoak.
I agree with those here who’ve said this isn’t as big a deal as it may seem, though. I’m still pretty high on Smoak overall.
Maybe his first name is really Yuniesky?
My first thought was Carson’s question — would you change your opinion of the deal they took vs the Montero deal — and the answer I eventually arrived at was the same as Ancient Mariners: while Montero probably has the oomph to make Safeco irrelevant, he might not, and I like the other pieces in the Smoak trade better. (Of course it’s worth noting that a switch-hitter like Smoak isn’t always facing a batting lefty in Safeco, so it’s not like the park factor is 100% in his favor.)
Defense at 1st matters more than you’d think (Olerud made the rest of the infield better), especially with Scioscia’s “put em in motion” Angels in the division, but I think we can live with average, or even worse, if it comes with a well above-average bat. But man, it would be nice to have an Elvis Andrus coming up through the system to compensate.
Unfortunately, none of this comes as a surprise to those of us who also play fantasy baseball, especially those who have “owned” Chris Davis and/or Justin Smoak for the past couple years and had an “investment” riding on which one was the going to be THE guy for Texas. We began to learn early this year that maybe Smoak really didn’t have the defensive skills that would earn him playing time, but only his bat could do so. When the M’s acquired him, we were baffled that the “Gold Glove” stuff was popping up again. Some of us fantasy geeks began to fear that his situation was not unlike the Braves’ pitching prospects in the 90′s (they had a ton of them): If they were traded by the Braves, eventually we came to understand (right or wrong) that must mean the Braves knew they weren’t worth keeping. Before anybody replies in a nasty fashion, please understand that I am not predicting Smoak will be a bust (although I have some serious doubts about him). I am simply saying that his defensive prowess was being questioned for awhile before the trade and his shortcomings there might have played a major factor in the Rangers’ decision to part with him.
The Nationals, under Bowden, were doing at least as good of a job. And since there’s no DH in the NL, they were playing most of them as outfielders. Of course he’s gone now, along with the easy jokes.
Well, it’s not like this was completely secret knowledge — the scouts Dave talked to had apparently also known it for quite a while, and presumably this wasn’t news to the M’s organization either — and the Rangers by all accounts still were pretty reluctant to let Smoak go (which probably says more about the potential in his bat, but still.)
This is more about a player getting a reputation early on, and how such reputations resist modification once they’ve been earned or at least established. (I hate to bring up Yuniesky again, but we saw how his early reputation continued to halo him — especially outside Seattle — long after his girth and sloth should’ve put it into eclipse)
The real question in my mind involves BA’s initial evaluation, not any subsequent revisions. What was the basis for that initial report? Was Smoak better once, at least relative to his peers at the time, or were they somehow completely mistaken?
I remarked the other day that Lopez looked like he was running in clown shoes, underwater. One of the other guys at the bar immediately announced his next band would be called “Underwater Clown Shoes”
In our defense, we were watching an M’s game, so there was a lot of drinking involved.
You win today’s Super Simile Award! I can’t tell you what the award is, but it is like a cookie.
Comparing him to morneau is just crazy. Justin morneau has been an superstar caliber, mvp candidate every year for a few years now.
Flashbeak: Although he’s a lefty thrower, Smoak claims he’s a natural righty hitter a la Ricky Henderson. Usually only righties become switch hitters. I can’t think of any lefty hitters that became switch hitters other than maybe some pitchers.
joser wrote:
Were you drinking at The Twisted Balloon again, joser?
Compare Smoak now to Morneau’s first three seasons, not his last five…it’s not a bad comp at all, it just begs that kind of narrowminded criticism because of the kind of elite player Morneau has become, against heavy odds even despite the natural talent he obviously has. I remember watching Morneau early in his career–in fact I was sitting behind home plate the night he got beaned in the dome by…might even have been Felix, and his whole circle of friends and family from BC were sitting right in front of me, totally horrified. Morneau looked kinda clumsy and overwhelmed at the plate back then, too, though you could tell he was a physical beast.
Yeah — prior to this year, Morneau was a 4+ WAR player exactly once, in the year he won the MVP award, 2006 (and he followed that with a 2.5 WAR season in ’07). Prior to that, in his first three seasons, Morneau played a total of 255 games and accumulated 2.3 total WAR. Smoak is the same age Morneau was in ’04, so comparing him to a guy who was a 1.1 WAR player (in spite of negative fielding numbers that year) isn’t completely out of line. (And for what it’s worth, Morneau wasn’t even the most valuable player on his own team the year he won the MVP).
Yeah. It’s kind of a pain getting there, though, because we all have to arrive in one car.
It sounds like Brian Sabean may be trying to enter the competition – and SF is in the NL as well.
Cookies!!!! Haha mmm…good. Anyways your “underwater clown shoes” is pretty hilarious. One of these days I’m going to count how many steps Lopez needs to reach first base compared to other Mariner right hand batters….
This is disappointing. It may explain why Texas was willing to part with him.
It seems that the Ms have two significant holes at 1B and DH, nobody looks really close in the minors and there are few expectations of contention next year. If JS can develop into an average or better bat over the next few years, he could be useful for at least 3-4 years. If he develops into a very good hitter, he could help for much longer. He should be an average defender at DH.
Sometimes I swear Lopez is trying to measure the distance between home plate and first base… heel, toe, heel, toe – as if he thinks Safeco’s infield is out of spec.
But back on-topic – Keith Law reported that Smoak had a “plus glove”. He usually tries to see guys first-hand – does anyone know if this case was different (or maybe BA was just using his analysis)?
Law’s only negative with regard to Smoak was his speed (or lack thereof).
Just after the Smoak deal, a number of Texas blogs indicated they looked forward to the return of a much better glove in Chris Davis. As well as being slow, Smoak (they said) had the worst arm of any starting 1bman. Ron Washington was even quoted saying he looked forward to getting Davis back on ‘D’. This should all be taken with a grain of salt of course and note that Davis was given almost no time to prove himself before Cantu was brought in. BTW, Davis has been playing some 3b and LF in AAA apparently. He seems to flounder at the major league level offensively but is pounding it in AAA. He’s still very young though, only 24.
I believe you are thinking of James Baldwin.
Could Smoak possibly be as slow as Willie Horton? Jeff Burroughs? Bob Robertson? Ken Phelps? Paul Sorrento? Or the aforementioned Thomas and Zisk? Watching the Mariners trot out another elephant at 1b/dh every year, too often one on the wrong side of 30, used to be part of the “fun.”
All this talk of slow Mariners and nobody mentions Ron Wright? I mean, the guy had a hell of an excuse (severed sciatic nerve causing his right leg to be numb for the rest of his life), but he was pretty damned slow.
Batista was deliberate off the mound, James Baldwin was the king of sloth off the mound.
According to Baseball-Reference Edgar managed to leg out 110 infield hits between 1991-1992. Pretty impressive for a slow guy!
The difference between a 1B and DH is usually a matter what position they played before they got to the show, and where the team has needs once they arrive.
I’m all for valuing a guy’s defensive abilities. But defensive opportunities are highly variable, while a healthy 1B gets almost exactly 650 opportunities at the plate every season. Given that scouts have been confused by Smoak’s abilities at 1B so far, I’m not sure that I think grading out his defense should be the salient factor in evaluating him at this point in his career.
I can’t help but feel like scouts succumb to using proxies for defensive abilities in their evaluations. Smooth, quick, athletic, easy, and confident are easy to confuse with getting to the ball and making outs. I also don’t trust scouts with the relative value of errors and range. I don’t care if after every routine play, Justin Smoak falls over without hurting himself, as long as he gets to the ball and makes outs.
Kind of funny that Dave is writing off Smoak based on a handful of games seen on TV. And sure, getting a few scouting folks that concur seems reasonable. But maybe that means he’s stiff right now. Sore. Hurt. Because this flies in the face of not only BA’s assessment, but both the Rangers and the Mariners as well.
How about at least saying, “Small sample size alert” Dave?
Well, hopefully this is a question posed to Jack when you guys meet up.
You don’t know the Rangers and Mariners assessments of Smoak’s defense.
And it’s not a small sample. The guys I talked to have watched Smoak play a lot, over a long period of time.
Vertigoman, you could go to Tacoma and watch him yourself. TV is fine, too, if you can’t get down there (CSN is hopefully available to you). Athleticism (or lack thereof) is pretty easy to spot, even over a small sample of games. The question is how much weight to give that observation, if it is seemingly contradicted by statistical analysis – which I am not sure this is, frankly (Smoak’s UZR does not support his reputation either) – but the defensive statistics here are SSS, too.
And, with all due deference to philosofool, the problem with lack of athleticism, even when making the plays, is it raises a legitimate question about ability to make future plays. Statistical analysis is backward-looking; scouting, as imperfect as it may be, is forward-looking. I do believe that all scouting opinion should be tempered by knowledge/awareness of a player’s statistical trends, but don’t discount scouting opinion just because it contradicts the statistics – especially defensive statistics, and even more especially when dealing with a player who has less than two full years of pro experience.
How could there possibly be a discussion of slowest Mariner ever without any mention of Steve “Bye-Bye” Balboni?
Travesty.
Thanks for your input Pete.
You’re correct in that UZR does not support Smoak as a great defender. However, UZR also does not support Dave’s claim that he now to be considered a bad defender. Since I happen to live on the same coast as Dave I’m pretty sure I have access to the same TV and live games (which mean PCL is out of the picture). The same games that whomever evaluates UZR has access to. So maybe UZR is totally off base on their range assessment as well?
And Dave, no I don’t have access to The M’s or the Rangers scouting reports of Smoak. I’m sure you could figure that out better than I can for sure. Maybe it would be prudent to do so before you write his defense off altogether.
I am also not an amateur Scout by any means. I know that in my eyes, watching ST live I was surprised at how slow Kotchman looked at first. But there is no arguing his ability to make the plays this season, not in my mind. Whatever makes a good first basemen probably has more to do with skill than athleticism. Writing his defense off completely because of a small amount of of video footage seems to be jumping the gun. This kind of unsupported analysis is not typical of UssMariner. Using unnamed sources as the crux of an argument is something that you call other people out on.
No disrespect intended.
Writing his defense off completely because of a small amount of of video footage seems to be jumping the gun.
Its a good thing thats not what I’m doing, then.
Using unnamed sources as the crux of an argument is something that you call other people out on.
You really don’t know the difference between using “unnamed sources” to report things like clubhouse friction and using “unnamed scouts” to talk about things like defensive ability?
Westside – Kidding or not, please don’t ever imply that Baseball America would steal another writer’s analysis. BA has been writing about Justin Smoak since 2004.
You really don’t know the difference between using “unnamed sources” to report things like clubhouse friction and using “unnamed scouts” to talk about things like defensive ability?
If you can’t see the symmetry perhaps you’re too close to the subject. We’ve all read the rants about reporters making up stories to report about. And I agree. Hopefully you backup this post with something substantial. Like it or not, your opinion counts more than most.
BTW, before you go snarky and deem me a troll or whatever it’s called just know that I’m a fan of your work and I read it regularly. Recommend it to family, friends and other fans where I live. Now when I’m talking baseball to some of the Yankee fans I know, we can actually refer to FIP and UZR instead of Jeter’s awesome play in the ALCS and moxie.
If you can’t see the symmetry perhaps you’re too close to the subject.
Besides the fact that we’re not outing their identities, there is no similarity between using a scouts opinion in a piece like this and using “clubhouse sources” to report gossip about who gets along with who or whatever.
Those stories are almost always presented as “Thing X happened”, a declarative statement of fact about an event that either did or did not occur. Griffey’s sleeping incident is the perfect example – LaRue quoted two unnamed players to relay a story as a factual event, even though the implicated party denied the charge. By using anonymous sources, we’re essentially left with a he said/she said. This is nothing like that.
I’m not quoting the scout saying that Justin Smoak robbed a liquor store. I’m repeating a scouts opinion about a player’s abilities – nothing more, nothing less. It’s not something where I’m denying Smoak the ability to confront his accuser or set the record straight over something that he disputes.
The situations are entirely different. Whether you want to decide that the scouts I’ve talked to have no credibility because I’m not revealing their identities, or whether you think I didn’t actually talk to them or something, that’s up to you. We’re not asserting anything as fact here. I’m simply reporting the opinions of several people who know what they’re talking about. It’s up to you to value that or not.
As Dave said, the motives for not naming names differ, and matter.
I appreciate the explanation Dave. I see your point where it pertains to the source. It still however, turns into a he said she said since there are conflicting opinions about his defensive abilities. And they are dramatically different opinions at that. Your agreement with your scouts assessment is based on SSS even though the opinions of those scouts you are quoting are evidently not. Since UZR has him graded as league average defensively in his brief stint in the majors there’s no statistical evidence to support either claim. It seems to be jumping the gun a bit by notching him down from his potential franchise pillar status to that of a good everyday player based on this. Hopefully we’ll be reading more about this in some kind of follow up.
vertigoman, you said: “Because this flies in the face of not only BA’s assessment, but both the Rangers and the Mariners as well.”
Since none of us have direct access to the Rangers and Mariners assessments of Smoak’s defense, and you have reported to us factually the gist of the Rangers and Mariners assessments are, I presume that you have some sources for those assessments that we don’t.
Given all of the fuss you’ve raised about use of unnamed sources, I’m disappointed that you haven’t shared with us your sources.