Game 138, Mariners at A’s

Dave · September 6, 2010 at 10:05 am · Filed Under Mariners 

Vargas vs Anderson, 1:05 pm.

Sorry we missed yesterday’s game thread. Everything should be back to normal starting tomorrow. Felix is pretty good, eh?

Comments

52 Responses to “Game 138, Mariners at A’s”

  1. Westside guy on September 6th, 2010 11:26 am

    Felix is da bomb.

  2. inspiration100 on September 6th, 2010 11:28 am

    Felix throws fire.

  3. Westside guy on September 6th, 2010 11:28 am

    Ichiro!
    Figgins
    Guti is back!
    Branyan
    Lopez
    Kotchman
    Moore
    Saunders
    Wilson

  4. henryv on September 6th, 2010 11:59 am

    It feels so inevitable that Felix will throw a no-hitter soon…

    An interesting, albeit useless, comparison would be the anticipated number of no-hitters compared to the actual number that occur.

    For instance, given that you need to record 27 outs, and the league batting average is around .250, I would expect to see a no-hitter every 2400 games or so. And given that there are 2430 games per year, you should expect to see 1 per season… However, this doesn’t take into account that some pitchers are “good” and some are Sean Kelly…

  5. Westside guy on September 6th, 2010 12:05 pm

    I think you’d be better off looking at just Felix’ stats. Assuming it’s a Gaussian distribution (which people always seem to assume but I’ve never seen it actually proven) – why not just look at how many hits Felix gives up on average, then calculate the standard deviation around that to find the probability of any game becoming a no-hitter.

  6. henryv on September 6th, 2010 12:33 pm

    why not just look at how many hits Felix gives up on average, then calculate the standard deviation around that to find the probability of any game becoming a no-hitter.

    Well, my thought isn’t so much what you would expect, but the difference from what you would expect. I think that there are probably far more no-hitters pitched than you would expect, because some days pitchers are far better than their normal random chance.

    And I don’t know that I would think there is enough data of normals hits/9 vs. no hitters to make any time of prediction based on that value… Maybe there is… And I sure as hell don’t want to do it, but it’s fun to think about it.

    My current interest, that I plan on doing next summer, is to compare the width of strike zones using pitchFX data, when comparing teams, umpires, stadiums, and years experience of players.

    My hypothesis is that just like the NBA foul numbers, as a player ages, the strike zone called becomes larger. And given that we now have a lot more accumulated data, I think that part can be teased out.

  7. henryv on September 6th, 2010 12:37 pm

    (which people always seem to assume but I’ve never seen it actually proven)

    Parametric data has to be based on a normal distribution, or it has a tendency to fall apart.

    However, much of the analysis now done is very resilient to non-normality, to the point where unless it is extremely non-normal, at which point you will be able to recognize the fact, easily.

  8. henryv on September 6th, 2010 12:38 pm

    However, I had a biostatistics professor that used to say “They’re called assumptions! Assume they’re true.”

    I politely disagree with him, but would never say it to his face.

  9. msfanmike on September 6th, 2010 1:15 pm

    However, I had a biostatistics professor that used to say “They’re called assumptions! Assume they’re true.”

    Huh!

    I had a stats professor that said two things:

    1.

    “There are lies, damn lies and statistics.”

    2.

    “Statistics are like a bikini … what they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.”

    Of course, he said these things on the day before the final exam … 25 years ago, but I still think I like my guy better. He also went on to have an illustrious career with Enron as an Accountant.

  10. Westside guy on September 6th, 2010 1:17 pm

    Of course, he said these things on the day before the final exam … 25 years ago, but I still think I like my guy better. He also went on to have an illustrious career with Enron as an Accountant.

    So at a minimum – we know he was creative.

  11. henryv on September 6th, 2010 1:19 pm

    “Statistics are for losers.” – Scotty Bowman, Head Coach Detroit Red Wings

  12. henryv on September 6th, 2010 1:20 pm

    Well, this game ended fast. 1 out in the bottom of the first, and we’re out of it.

    More stats jokes, NOW!

    ———————-

    Three statisticians go hunting. They see a dear, and the first one shoots and misses 40 feet in front of it. The second one fires, and misses 40 feet behind. The third one jumps up and down and says “We hit it! We hit it!”

  13. henryv on September 6th, 2010 1:25 pm
  14. msfanmike on September 6th, 2010 1:26 pm

    So at a minimum – we know he was creative.

    Not really … I made up the last part. The quotes were accurate though. Remember, 67% of all stats are made up on the spot plus #1 and #2 above.

    I see no real point in attempting to predict the number of no-hitters that “should” occur – when a check swing blooper can result in a base hit on any given pitch. However, I believe the world is a much better place in the fact that it has people within it that would have the time to hypothesize such things – and to use the King’s proper English to describe it.

    Something about that and a $5 dollar bill(adjusted for inflation of course) being able to buy something else comes to mind.

  15. msfanmike on September 6th, 2010 1:27 pm

    I think you are probably correct Henry. The game is out of reach – and stat jokes are always fun.

  16. matthew on September 6th, 2010 1:28 pm

    Caption this photo from the USSM meetup the other day…

  17. msfanmike on September 6th, 2010 1:32 pm

    Yo Henry … I have a prediction that I know is true: The Mariners will win a World Series before I am willing to consume the new brand of whiskey identified within the link you provided above.

  18. firova2 on September 6th, 2010 1:34 pm

    “I would shave my head to have your job. Yes I would.”

  19. henryv on September 6th, 2010 1:38 pm

    Yo Henry … I have a prediction that I know is true: The Mariners will win a World Series before I am willing to consume the new brand of whiskey identified within the link you provided above.

    Laughing so hard. I don’t know, though… There have been some days, and eternity is a long, long time.

  20. matthew on September 6th, 2010 1:39 pm

    Or if that doesn’t move you to write a caption, maybe this one will heheh.

  21. henryv on September 6th, 2010 1:40 pm

    I don’t think it’s a very good caption, but exactly when is it acceptable to wear a yellow 3 button jacket with a bright blue polo shirt?

  22. henryv on September 6th, 2010 1:43 pm

    Or if that doesn’t move you to write a caption, maybe this one will heheh.

    “Pete: Just FYI, Don, at no point in Compete Forever does it mention making things harder on yourself by using Sean Kelly.”

  23. henryv on September 6th, 2010 1:44 pm

    That is one coach who got fired for losing 60% of his games, and another who probably won’t win 20% of them.

  24. juneau_fan on September 6th, 2010 1:51 pm

    This is going to be a painful day, I can see.

  25. Westside guy on September 6th, 2010 1:52 pm

    Caption this photo from the USSM meetup the other day…

    Baseball sense – yes. Color sense… NO.

  26. Westside guy on September 6th, 2010 1:56 pm

    Or if that doesn’t move you to write a caption, maybe this one will heheh.

    I’ll save you a nice spot under the train…

  27. Westside guy on September 6th, 2010 2:04 pm

    Is Tui a worse defensive option than Paperboy?

    Heck, how on earth is Paperboy the best shortstop we can put out there?

  28. msfanmike on September 6th, 2010 2:08 pm

    I love a nice crisp, well played game on a pleasant late summer day.

    Is Tui a worse defensive option than Paperboy?

    Yes … much, much, much worse – he of the p’Tui nickname giver

  29. msfanmike on September 6th, 2010 2:11 pm

    Caption for the 1st photo?:

    Perhaps Jose Lopez didn’t eat all the Doritos

  30. Westside guy on September 6th, 2010 2:13 pm

    Yes … much, much, much worse – he of the p’Tui nickname giver

    That’s really sad because Paperboy is pretty terrible…

    This game is sucking big-time. I’m not sure I’ll make it through 9 innings.

  31. matthew on September 6th, 2010 2:15 pm

    lol msfanmike, that’s just wrong…

  32. Westside guy on September 6th, 2010 2:17 pm

    Perhaps Jose Lopez didn’t eat all the Doritos

    A few years back they did have the slogan “Eat all you want – we’ll make more”.

    (“they” being Doritos, not the Mariners! hehe)

  33. msfanmike on September 6th, 2010 2:21 pm
    That’s really sad because Paperboy is pretty terrible…

    Correct!

    This game is sucking big-time.

    Affrmative!

    I’m not sure I’ll make it through 9 innings

    Yes, you probably will. I have split a cable and can watch TV outside – so I won’t miss any of the “action” while I conduct important back-yard duties. I did it up special just for this season. Yep, that was a waste of time. Coming inside occasionally to catch up on important game thread updates is more interesting.

  34. Westside guy on September 6th, 2010 2:24 pm

    Sloppy game… on the Mariners side anyway.

    The A’s have made some nice plays, though.

  35. Westside guy on September 6th, 2010 2:25 pm

    I did it up special just for this season

    During the pre-season I’m guessing!

  36. msfanmike on September 6th, 2010 2:25 pm

    lol msfanmike, that’s just wrong…

    Yes, I know. I tried desperately to delete the comment before anybody else posted, but I couldn’t get there in time. My keyboard rolled between my legs on one hop.

    Also, do not, under any circumstance, attempt to read whether there is or is not more than one way to translate its meaning.

  37. spankystout on September 6th, 2010 2:53 pm

    Ackley and Smoak have each hit a HR today. Thought it was better news than anything the M’s have done today.

  38. Matt the Dragon on September 6th, 2010 2:57 pm

    Or if that doesn’t move you to write a caption, maybe this one will heheh.

    Don, prepare three envelopes.

  39. spankystout on September 6th, 2010 2:58 pm

    Also Nick Franklin went 2-3, BB, and 3runs in his first game at the AA level.

  40. spankystout on September 6th, 2010 3:31 pm

    Another impotent game…..I’ve really started asking myself ‘why do I watch this shit team?’ This is the first time I have ever considered completely tuning the M’s out. Ugh………….

  41. henryv on September 6th, 2010 4:09 pm

    Don, prepare three envelopes.

    I thought it was only 2 envelopes.

  42. henryv on September 6th, 2010 4:11 pm

    Ichiro needs 21 hits in 24 games.

    That’s basically all that matters for the rest of the year. Try to stay in front of the O’s and the Diamondbacks in the loss column, too, I guess.

  43. greentunic on September 6th, 2010 4:13 pm

    Not only that, but it looks like Leury Bonilla played all nine positions for the AA Jax today, with a home run to boot. Pitched a shutout inning too…? What kinda circus are they running where they can do that and win 8-0? Love it!

  44. scott19 on September 6th, 2010 4:19 pm

    “Statistics are for losers.” – Scotty Bowman, Head Coach Detroit Red Wings

    Very interesting…not to mention old-school.

    Of course, while I may disagree with Bowman on that point, I guess I could probably cut him a little slack based on the fact that his track record in team management (on a number of levels) kind of speaks for itself.

  45. henryv on September 6th, 2010 4:28 pm

    Of course, while I may disagree with Bowman on that point, I guess I could probably cut him a little slack based on the fact that his track record in team management (on a number of levels) kind of speaks for itself.

    Not only that, but he can scare children from thousands of miles away.

    However, what Bowman was actually saying was that you (usually) only focus on statistics when you’re losing.

  46. scott19 on September 6th, 2010 5:18 pm

    However, what Bowman was actually saying was that you (usually) only focus on statistics when you’re losing.

    Exactly. And in the case of his teams, it seemed like they never lost very much — or for very long, either. :)

  47. msfanmike on September 6th, 2010 5:22 pm

    What kinda circus are they running where they can do that and win 8-0?

    The “this is the last game of the season” kind. They went out, had some fun and coincidentally won a game that meant nothing – against a team that apparently cared slightly less than they did. In other words, they played in a game that had slightly more meaning than any NFL pre-season game.

  48. Westside guy on September 6th, 2010 5:39 pm

    Don, prepare three envelopes.

    I thought it was only 2 envelopes.

    Maybe it’s two envelopes, maybe it’s three, but there ARE FOUR LIGHTS!

    (Anyway… the joke has three envelopes – with the third one containing the instructions “prepare three envelopes”…)

  49. scott19 on September 6th, 2010 5:59 pm

    In other words, they played in a game that had slightly more meaning than any NFL pre-season game.

    Oh, you mean those NFL pre-season games for which the flagship stations carrying them feel compelled to spend 4-5 hours of pre- and post-game analysis speculation on who’s not gonna be on the roster for the following pre-season game which won’t count on the schedule? :)

  50. henryv on September 6th, 2010 7:33 pm

    (Anyway… the joke has three envelopes – with the third one containing the instructions “prepare three envelopes”…)

    I thought it was two letters. The first one was “Blame the previous coach.” And the second letter said “Make two envelopes.”

  51. Westside guy on September 6th, 2010 8:24 pm

    Here’s the version I’d heard – but it’s basically the same joke.

  52. scott19 on September 6th, 2010 10:30 pm

    but there ARE FOUR LIGHTS!

    Besides Orwell, I also just remembered which Star Trek: The Next Generation episode that was from, too! :)

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