Dave’s Offseason Plan, 2011 Style
It’s back again – the annual winter tradition where I speculate on some potential moves the M’s could make and put together my own roster for next year. I try to be as realistic as possible, though everyone will have their own opinions on the viability of these moves. I’m sticking to a $93 million budget, about the same amount as what the team spent last year, and will hopefully get in the realm of possibility with the dollars for the arbitration eligible guys and suggested free agents. In the one trade suggested, I’ve tried to fairly compensate the other team with sufficient talent to make the deal work for both sides. As always, the specific players are examples of the types of moves I’d like to see the team make, but there are various alternatives at each position. Oh, and yes, this is your thread for rosterbation. Go nuts.
The Moves
Trade David Aardsma and Jose Lopez to Arizona for OF Cole Gillespie and IF Ryan Roberts
Sign DH Lance Berkman to a 2 year, $12 million contract
Sign LHP Jeff Francis to a 2 year, $10 million contract
Sign IF Nick Punto to a 1 year, $2.5 million contract
Sign LHP Mark Hendrickson to a 1 year, $1 million contract
Sign C Gregg Zaun to a 1 year, $1 million contract
Sign LHP Jamie Moyer to a 1 year, $500,000 contract.
The Rationale
The Mariners are in something of a tough spot. Coming off a miserable season, they have to improve the roster to avoid alienating the fan base stem the erosion of season ticket sales, but with a good Texas team to catch and Anaheim poised to spend a ton of money this winter, contending for the division title in 2011 is probably too much to ask. There’s just too much ground to make up in one winter to get on an even playing field with the Rangers, not to mention trying to overcome an Angels team that could land both Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre this winter.
So, the team needs to make moves that improve the roster, but that also fit into a longer term picture. They’re not in the position to be using prospects in trade to upgrade the major league team, and they don’t have enough money to spend to land a marquee free agent. They also need to make sure that they keep opportunities free for the young talent that is nearly major league ready without putting out a team full of rookies that will lose 100 games again. It’s a tough balancing act, there are pieces that the team can go after that would be able to help the team in both 2011 and beyond. That’s what I’ve tried to emphasize with these moves. Let’s take them one at a time.
Trading David Aardsma is the most obvious move of the winter, and now that they’ve declined Jose Lopez’s option, moving him becomes the second most obvious move. I’ve killed two birds with one stone by trading them away in the same deal. Kevin Towers has made it clear that he has two priorities as the new GM of the Diamondbacks this winter – improve their bullpen and fix the offenses contact problems. Aardsma gives them a fairly low cost closer, while Lopez offers a player who can replace some of Mark Reynolds power with about 150 fewer strikeouts per season, as they are likely to ship out Reynolds this winter. He’d be a decent fit in Seattle if the M’s could unload Chone Figgins, but I don’t see how to make that happen, so for now we just settle on giving Arizona their replacement and their ninth inning guy.
In exchange, the Mariners acquire a couple of useful role players. Gillespie is a classic fourth outfielder in the making, as a guy with no premium tools but decent skills across the board. He draws some walks, has gap power, runs okay, and plays a decent corner outfield, but he’s probably best served as a part-time player. He’d be a perfect fit to share time with Michael Saunders in left and offer some low cost outfield depth with a little bit of upside. Roberts is a utility infielder with a little bit of pop in his bat who had a good 2009 season but flopped last year. Both are cheap role players who fill needs, and given that neither Aardsma nor Lopez have a ton of trade value, this is about what you can expect for the pair. They’re useful pieces that the team needs, and that’s good enough considering what the Mariners are giving up.
They won’t fix the offense, of course, and for the addition of some thump into the line-up, we turn to the free agent market. Lance Berkman is my preferred DH candidate, offering the best package of multiple years of production without a huge cost. He’s going to be 35 next year and is coming off the worst year of his career, but there are reasons to think he’s a good bounce back candidate – his drop in power coincided with a wrist injury that should be healed by next year, and nearly all of his other skills remained equal to his 2009 season when he posted a .386 wOBA.
He wants a full time job and the opportunity to play the field at times, and the Mariners can offer him both, as he could split time with Justin Smoak and hit cleanup on a daily basis. He provides a patient, switch-hitting bat who could take advantage of Safeco’s friendly right field porch, and gives you some depth at first base in case Smoak flops or gets hurt. Going two years may seem risky for a guy his age, but it’s worth the risk to get Berkman in the M’s line-up. If he rebounds, he’ll easily be worth the money and give the team a legitimate cleanup hitter for both 2011 and 2012.
Berkman’s not the only guy we’re handing a two year contract to, however. The other investment I’m making this winter is in the rotation, which is full of question marks once you get past Felix. In order to give the team another quality arm who will love what pitching in Safeco Field will do for his numbers, I turn to Jeff Francis, who was set free by the Rockies when they declined his $7 million option for 2011. Francis has had a reasonably solid career considering he’s spent it pitching in Coors Field, and as a British Columbia kid, would almost certainly welcome the chance to move to a park near his hometown that is paradise on earth for left-handed pitch-to-contact starters.
Francis is, in many ways, similar to Jason Vargas. They’re both soft-tossing lefties who have excellent change-ups and plus command, and while neither is a big strikeout pitcher, they have good enough stuff to miss bats when they have to. Obviously, we’ve seen how well Vargas has flourished in Safeco (like many others before him), and Francis would likely receive a similar benefit from the park. He’s now two years removed from shoulder surgery that cost him all of the 2009 season and limited him to just over 100 innings pitched last year, but his stuff is most of the way back and he actually posted the lowest xFIP of his career last year. He can provide solid innings as a middle of the rotation starter, and should be the kind of starter that the M’s can acquire without paying too high of a price.
The rest of the moves are stopgap fillers for 2011, as the team simply needs to plug some holes while waiting for kids to develop. Nick Punto is a terrific defensive infielder who can play second base until Dustin Ackley is ready, provide an alternative to Jack Wilson when he’s on the DL or traded, and serve as a quality backup infielder when not in the line-up. He’s a slap-hitter with no power, but he’s also legitimately one of the best defenders in the game, and would give Ackley a great example to learn from. His lack of offense will keep his price in the range that the Mariners can afford, and while I’m sure most of you are tired of guys who can’t hit, he’s the best option the team has for the role.
Mark Hendrickson gives the team a cheap quality left-handed setup guy who will be underrated because of an inflated ERA from last year. His peripherals are still fine, and he’s a perfect capable lefty out of the pen. With Baltimore declining his option for $1.2 million, he’s sure to come at a modest cost, and would give Eric Wedge some experience in what would otherwise be a very young bullpen.
Gregg Zaun fills the role of backup catcher, and provides a few benefits – he’s a switch-hitter, has a little bit of power, and as a 40-year-old, he won’t be complaining about playing second fiddle to Adam Moore. There are a number of candidates for the veteran backup catcher role, but Zaun is my favorite and fits in the budget.
We talked about Moyer earlier this week. He’s a perfect fit in the long relief/6th starter role, and if he wants to pitch in MLB next year, this is probably his best bet.
Is it the kind of offseason that will put the Mariners back into the mix for the AL West? No, but I’m not sure that is possible anyway. What it does give the team is a good chance for a .500 season (this roster projects out to about an 80 win team or so) while adding a couple of pieces that could still be useful in 2012. It gives the kids a chance to play while not making the team a disaster if they fail, and maintains most of the financial flexibility the team will get following next year, when Milton Bradley, Carlos Silva, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Jack Wilson come off the books.
The reality is that this team won’t be good again until Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley, and Michael Pineda are ready to be core pieces. That won’t happen this year, but this roster would give the team the ability to let all three get their feet wet in the big leagues while hopefully winning enough games to avoid everyone getting fired again.
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For what its worth, the Prospect Insider blog also speculated that JJ Hardy is a likely non-tender prospect. Arbitration was the stated reason.
Let’s consider the alternatives:
– Decline arbitration. You get $6 million salary relief and no other return.
– Offer arbitration. Trade JJ Hardy for package of minor leaguers to team that needs SS. You get $6 million in salary relief and tasty prospects.
– Offer arbitration. For some inexplicable reason, no team in all of MLB wants JJ Hardy when you put him on the trade market. You pay him whatever the award is. Oh, and you get a 3 WAR player, which translates to about 12 million in value.
I am completely stumped as to why options 2 and 3 are somehow things the Twins would be completely hosed by, considering that they play in a sold-out ballpark and make plenty of cash these days.
Anyways, to sum up, because this is way too meta: you disagree that Dave’s proposed roster is the right way to excite the season ticket holders, even though it would be a reasonable way to get to a .500 team, which should be a goal, but you won’t actually put forth an argument as to what WOULD be the right way. Because, well… something. Whatever. I don’t care, at this point.
Right there, that’ where you’re missing it. Keeps sneaking right by you like Lopez on a soft grounder up the middle.
I don’t disagree with his proposed roster. Only silly children think in such absolutes. Surely you’re not a silly child. I may disagree that such a roster doesn’t do the job of “avoid alienating the fan base stem the erosion of season ticket sales”.
And yes, I may believe that season tickets are sold before the season starts. And yes I may believe that if the 2011 roster is constructed with this consideration “avoid alienating the fan base stem the erosion of season ticket sales” I am assuming that begins in 2011.
Fair enough.
Now Go you for thinking that.
Yes I really like the idea of Sandoval – just not sure of the cost or if it is realistic? I think the M’s have been interested in the past.
But a haul of Hardy, Sandoval and Berkman would be a fine result for the off season.
I liked this blog a lot better before vertigoman kidnapped Dave and took it over.
I liked this blog a lot better before vertigoman kidnapped Dave and took it over.
Heh.
I have him right here. He seems to like peanuts.
If you grab eponymous coward we can work out an exchange.
Dave, Thank You, for a great plausible roster to open the bidding. The comments so far have hit most of the variables; i.e., Mariners have a limited budget, perhaps around 90 mil., good players win more games than bad players, you must make money by selling tickets to afford good players, rookies such as Ackley, Smoak, Pineda, et al can only learn and improve by playing against major leaguers, and will Lueke ever wear the teal, or whatever color the marketing dept. is promoting this year. One question for Dave, Is the urban legend that Mariners have money to bid for, and sign, Japanese players true ?
On season tickets; The dropoff in renewals from last year represents a return to the bare bones hard core fans some of whom have owned season tickets since 1977. Even if the Mariners signed the Japanese kid, Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford and Adam Dunn and then traded for Zach Greinke the resulting season ticket sales would still not represent a majority of total ticket sales. The days when the Mariners can write in stone 16,000-20,000 season ticket sales are over for awhile. The only way for sales to ever approach that level again is the same sort of sustained excellence that made it possible in the first place.
On Punto; Excellent move no matter how you look at it because in the end Punto is being brought in to play short when the situation arises. Which it will. I was all for getting an offensive shortstop this offseason but that was only because I didn’t see any good defensive ones on the market.
No matter what in 2011 the Mariners will count on the first 5 spots in the lineup for most of the run production. And with improved pitching and defense and progression to below average (instead of all time ineptitude) by the bottom of the lineup the Mariners should come close to scoring as many runs as they give up, which I would say is a first key step to getting back to respectability. That may leave the Mariners winning 70 games or good luck might see them to 85 wins. Either way they are not going to the playoffs next year.
One more tidbit to throw out there. Don’t be surprised if the Mariners get in on the bidding for Greinke if he does become available. A package of Pineda, Saunders, Robles and Lueke would look pretty nice to the Royals.
And for the last time Ackley will be a Mariner until 2017 by leaving him in Tacoma only until around April 15th. It would well behoove no one to leave Ackley in Tacoma past that date if he hits .400/.550/.600 the first two weeks. And no that is not out of the realm of possibility. Ackley will start the season in Tacoma only because it will buy the Mariners an extra season or because he is legitimately not ready. In fact if he tears it up in Arizona and the club and Ackley can agree to some kind of framework for locking him up long term I would not be surprised to see him starting at second and hitting sixth on opening day.
Hey, it’s last offseason all over again. Pass.
Swap out Berkman, Zaun and Francis, substitute Victor Martinez as the regular DH and backup catcher for the same money as would have gone to the lot of them.
Sign Hisashi Iwakuma.
Start Ackley out of spring training and have Punto on the bench. Or play roster games to keep Ackley down for two weeks as Duncan Idaho suggests.
Rest of that suggested roster looks fine.
the thing about projecting, that’s the point. Saunders, Carp … they weren’t .300 hitters in the minors. They ended up not .300 hitts in the majors. They ended up fairly similar players to what their minor stats were. Players that hit well in the minors generally hit well in the majors. People get caught up in the fact that a guy in the majors is “proven” because he’s been around. That’s not good enough.
My projections on Ackley are, yes, projections, but based on experience. Any projections on Saunders have to be based on experience, too – he’s .220 hitter who strikes out an awful lot and doesn’t have the power and/or plate discipline to justify those numbers. I would think projecting him to his .250 with 20 hr power might not be out of the realm of possibility, but it’s a stretch, it really is.
eponymous – sorry don’t understand your comment about Mangini. I apologize for being obtuse.
Nwade. Sorry I missed that about Ackley. That at least makes sense, but then, why bother trading for a new guy just to fill in time until Ackley comes up? Again, it’s wasted effort.
Rather spend the effort on a power hitter who’s not 100 years old.
Don’t be surprised if the Mariners get in on the bidding for Greinke if he does become available. A package of Pineda, Saunders, Robles and Lueke would look pretty nice to the Royals.
That sounds like we have put the cart before the horse again – Yes to trading Saunders but no way do I trade all of those four guys!
littlelinny6,
Funny you should say that, he went to my HS too! Wait… that means YOU and I went to the same HS! ’06 class. Love to see Gillespie in M’s uniform.
Thanks for the great post. I love these every year. I really like the idea of picking up Jeff Francis, but do you think he’s going to take that much money?
On a side note… This is depressing. It all just seems so hopeless. The Rangers will be good now for a long time, the Angels are always good… and we have this awful, awful team.
Worst yet, in his “Things are more Hopeful than they appear” post, Jay mentioned in the comments that our organization has the “10-15th” best farm system in the league, which is just better than average. Were screwed. I can’t be the only person thinking this way right? In three or four years, does anyone think in their heart of hearts that Smoak, Pineda, Saunders, and Ackley will really propel our team past the Angels or Rangers?
I need someone to tell me we have something better than a small chance, ya know? That those guys can win some serious games. Because I just don’t see it. And I’m sick of seeing our busted prospects go on to be great somewhere else. I hope all of this is just pessimism.
Oh, and the Hisashi Iwakuma news is really exciting, but thats for another board.
It will be hard to compete with those guys for sure, for the near future.
However, do not forget, that the Mariners budget is relatively large, and they have shown they will spend money to try to get over the hump(again this is all relative, they are not the Yankees). We are not neccesarily ‘stuck’ with the current crop of players.
Granted, they have spent money unwisely in the past, but they did spend it. Maybe Z will do better. I am not really referring to next year, but the following years.
Ah, Vertigoman and Eponymous Coward, why can’t you let a good post rest in peace. And yes, EpCo, I realise Vertigoman was wrong- and very wrong in calling you a retard- but if you’d let him be wrong in peace this would have been over a long time ago.
Anyway, I have to say I like this roster. I was a little disappointed at the DA and Lopez trade, at what you said it would bring back, but after thinking a little while it makes a lot more sense. Although I still hope for a little more Z magic that might bring something a little better back than that. I guess I see that as the pessimistic rather than the optimistic return.
As for Punto, I’m fine with that, and a little excited at the idea of seeing excellent D at 2b again after too many years of mediocre to poor D. Of course, if Hardy becomes available as some commenters said he might, I like that option better. But until that happens I’ll dream of Punto.
Also Francis I’m not sure about. I don’t think it would be a bad, crippling move. But I don’t know if what he would provide over a Pauley or his type being in the rotation- with some other garbage heap pickup taking his place in the bullpen- would be worth the extra expense.
Even with the minor disagreements I enjoyed this post. Keep up the good work.
What have I learned with this post? The outlook for 2011 is pretty grim and that I should ignore posts written by Vertigoman and EC. They may have good points but it isn’t worth my time to read through the steaming pile of bickering and petty comments to figure it out. I don’t give a damn which of you is right, I just wish you’d both knock it off.
This is probably the best offseason plan Dave’s ever written. It looks really good, although I think the Rangers are more likely to sign Berkman if they increase payroll a little bit after/if they re-sign Lee.
Could they get away with Figgins, Saunders, Robles and Lueke for Grienke instead? I don’t know what the Royals’ needs are at 2b or 3b, so perhaps Figgins doesn’t work. Or hey, even bump it down a notch to Fister, Saunders, Robles and Lueke. This IS the same front office that took Betancourt off the Ms hands, perhaps they don’t value players the same way the Ms do…
I’d just love to see a Felix-Zack-Hisashi-Pineda-Vargas lineup… enough to tolerate Mangini/Tui at 3b and random-fella at LF…
This plan seems way too conservative for a team in the M’s position.
Berkman makes sense, I agree he’s a good bounceback candidate, though I’ll think he’ll go to a contender.
The other players named as acquisition targets don’t have any upside, and aren’t going to put fannies in the seats.
Why not take bigger risks? Flip Aardsma for some prospects, rather than 4th OF/BUI types.
Look to AAAA types to fill the Punto/Hendrickson/Zaun/Gillespie/Roberts roles.
An if your going to spend some money, go for really high beta/upside guys like Bedard, Harden and Webb, who could benefit from a good ballpark/defense to rebuild their careers. You could either build options into their contracts, so you control them for an extra year or two if they’re good, or flip them at the deadline for extra talent.
Otherwise, a string of moves that spend money to make a 65 win team a 72 win team for 2011, but don’t improve the talent base for 2012 and beyond, don’t make much sense.
Am I the only one holding out hope that Jack Wilson will pack his bags and decide to go back to Japan?!
Looks like the Moyer idea might be a non-starter — http://bit.ly/bWICtg
The Moves
After last season, I’m aiming to add offense at every position.
Trade David Aardsma, Brandon League, Mike Carp, & Rob Johnson with money to Tampa Bay for Jason Bartlett & Matt Moore
Sign Jose Contreras to a 1 year $2 million contract plus incentives for saves & games finished
With Tampa Bay’s wholesale bullpen changeover & surplus at shortstop I’d aim to upgrade the offense via that route. While a run is a run the offense was a disaster & Jack Wilson cannot stay healthy. Bartlett may be no guarantee for offensive performance since 2009 is his only big year but he maintained a decent walk rate in 2010 while his BABIP plummetted. A measley 20 points bounceback on his BABIP makes him grade out as a much better player.
Trading both of the club’s top late-inning arms is not an easy decision. Cortes, Kelley, Lueke, Fields, Varvaro, & Pryor all easily project to reach MLB by the end of 2012. This free agent class has tons of aging bullpen arms that can fill a gap without commanding draft pick compensation (Contreras, Hoffman, or Saito). I picked Contreras because he did so well last year. He could get more base salary elsewhere but likely wouldn’t have the opportunity to close. Going the inexpensive bullpen route at this point helps maximize the limited payroll. If too many of the youngsters fail to develop then next offseason when the Silva/Bradley/Wilson/other money comes off the books you can add an experienced arm or two if needed.
Sidenote: Minnesota may see Plouffe or Casilla as viable alternatives to Hardy. If they do, I would prefer Hardy to Bartlett.
Bradley is a sunk cost but it’s hard to stomach him being on the bench for $13 million. Hard to not agree with the premise that Berkman is the best fit.
Sign DH Lance Berkman to a 2 year, $12 million contract
Even after a down year, my second choice, Carlos Pena could get more money & years than Berkman due to his being a few years younger with more power in 2009. The contract for Berkman may be a tad optimistic but incentives to guard against the prospect that his power may not return make sense.
I admit it, I have a prejudice against pitch-to-contact pitchers who have sizeable contracts. Set aside the name, if you read the scouting report I can’t help but think that I wouldn’t want them pitching in a playoff game. The final spot or two in a rotation can be filled with guys who don’t have top-notch stuff at minimal cost.
Sign LHP Erik Bedard & RHP Rich Harden to 1 year, $1 million contracts plus incentives; & Dustin McGowan to a minor league contract
A possible rotation of Felix, Bedard, Harden, Pineda, & Vargas later in the year would be a major improvement. Brandon Webb too is very intriguing.
With the trade for Bartlett above this move would be extraneous. However, a backup IF is still a need since in my scenario Ryan Roberts wasn’t traded for. Plenty of minor league free agents to compete for that job but I’d sign Willie Aybar as the favorite since he’s a versatile switch-hitter.
Sign Willie Aybar to a 1 year, $.85 million contract & Alfredo Amezaga, D’Angelo Jiminez, & Luis Hernandez to minor league contracts
Similar to earlier, I prefer the high upside pitchers. Andrew Miller is a non-tender candidate since he is due $2 million & out of options. If the budget is there he could be had via trade or he could be signed for less as a free agent.
Sign Andrew Miller to a 1 year, $1 million contract
Zaun is one of my favorite gritty bench players & we almost signed him last season. I agree with this one but I’d also take a long hard look at Dioner Navarro. Navarro is young enough (26 yo) he’ll likely get a guaranteed contract.
Sign C Gregg Zaun to a 1 year, $1 million contract
That works. He can mentor Moore.
Although Moyer would be a bargain at that rate this team needs to get younger & today’s news about his elbow injury makes such reunion seem unlikely.
No move.
Fister & French fit better as long/swingmen for this club.
Other moves:
Trade some semi-useful minor leaguer to KC for Kila Kai’ahue
Sign Royce Ring or Taylor Tankersley to a minor league contract
Sign Jeremy Hermida to a minor league contract
Sign Barrett Loux, Rafael DePaula, & Esteilon Peguero
Along with far superior pitching and offense
I pray for an infusion of offense this year. Not because that’s a better strategy – yes, a run saved = a run scored – but because this team was utterly unwatchable last year. Scoring runs is generally exciting. Preventing runs is generally dull.
Probably no one else agrees, but look at every other sport. The NFL is always putting rules in place to create more offense. The NHL, post-lockout, implemented rules that opened the game up to increase offense. The NBA put in a 24 second clock to force offensive play.
MLB is going in the wrong direction. That’s probably a natural outgrowth of banning PEDs, but your average fan wants to see offense, not run prevention. Or at least I do. I’m tired of watching Mariners that are worthless at the plate. Watching Gutierrez make a difficult catch look easy just doesn’t do it for me.
Honestly coming from a ticket holder who spends quite a bit of money on this lousy ball club every year, I must say I am not going to spend a dollar more. This organization is a joke. They need a complete overhaul.. meaning they need new ownership, President and CEO, etc. every year its the same damn thing with these guys. We get excited for absolutely nothing. And Dave I understand and agree on only one thing you said that entire post.. the Mariners in reality will not be good this next season. Judging by your roster moves, the Mariners will not even be able get a hit even if the ball was placed in front of them on a damn tee…
trade for ryan doumit. We’ve talked about him plenty over the past 2 seasons. He can play C, outfield, and DH. He’s a descent hitter. The pirates have 3 catchers so they would be willing to deal him. He can DH while still giving Adam moore and michael saunders days off.
I think this season should be modeled after the giants. Focus on pitching. I would choose 2 of these options.
1) trade for kenshin kawakami.
2) if bedard is healthy give him another incentive deal.
3) jon Garland. He showed this year that in a pitchers ballpark he’s rather effective.
4) Brandon Webb if hes healthy and going to be a starting pitcher, NOT relief pitcher.
None of these moves take much to do and have good upside. We stock pile our talent and money and add another proven hitter next season or at the trade deadline.
If he actually wanted to come to seattle I would love to see victor martinez in a mariners uniform. DH, 1st, and catcher. perfect fit. keeps the fans happy while still allowing our youth to develop.