Brendan Ryan Takes Shortstop Job
After experimenting with it a bit over the last few weeks, Eric Wedge made it official this morning – the M’s are going to start Brendan Ryan at shortstop and Jack Wilson at second base to begin the season. Ryan is younger, healthier, and is likely the better defender of the two, so there’s certainly logic in giving him the more challenging defensive position. And, with Adam Kennedy slated for some fairly regular playing time at second base, this creates a natural job share with the left-handed batting Kennedy and the right-handed hitting Wilson, where the two can both play part-time and hopefully keep Wilson’s body from breaking down as often as it has the last few years.
There are merits to this decision. That said, I’m still not a big fan of the call. Perhaps its still the memory of last year’s failed Jose Lopez-Chone Figgins switcheroo, where the M’s decided that Figgins looked more like a second baseman than Lopez did and went with body type instead of positional experience as the deciding factor. Figgins was a disaster at second base, however, in part because it was a position he just hadn’t played all that much. There was a learning curve that had to be overcome, and so for most of last year, the M’s had to put up with Figgins making mistakes that a more experienced second baseman wouldn’t have made. And, of course, it all meant nothing, as this year Figgins is right back where he belongs, over at third base.
I have a bit of a feeling of deja vu here. Jack Wilson is not any kind of long term answer for the Mariners. He almost certainly won’t be a Mariner in 2012, and he might not even be one in July. Dustin Ackley is the future at second base, and if he plays well in Tacoma to start the year, he could force his way up to the big club early this summer. Once again, the Mariners are asking a player with limited experience at second base to make the conversion in season without it having much of a long term reward. They’re eating the cost of the adjustment without the hope of a payoff.
There’s an argument to be made that having Wilson gain experience at second base might increase his trade value this summer, as he’ll have greater positional flexibility and could be marketed to teams looking for either a shortstop or a second baseman. That’s possible, I guess, but I think you could also argue that there is such a small supply of shortstops that moving Wilson off the position might actually harm his trade value – if a team like the Giants decides to scout Wilson as a fill-in for the black hole they have at the position, they won’t get to see him actually play shortstop, and will have to make inferences about his abilities to still play that spot on the field. Additionally, they’ll have the knowledge that the Mariners think he wasn’t capable of playing SS for them this year, and likely include that in their decision making process. You may add teams looking for a second baseman to the list of suitors for Wilson this summer, but I think you probably subtract teams looking for a shortstop. And shortstops are in higher demand than second baseman.
Overall, I’d say this is unlikely to help Wilson’s trade value and unlikely to improve the Mariners defense all that much. It might make things a bit easier on Ryan, who can focus on playing shortstop exclusively now, but I don’t know that there’s a big gain to be had from that. I guess I just don’t see a lot of upside here, but I do some potential risks. Wilson could adapt poorly to second base, or he could be taken out while trying to turn the double play with his back to the runner – a play he hasn’t had to make in his career until now.
It seems like another needless position switch, honestly. It didn’t help last year, and I’m not sure it will help this year either.
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This isn’t intended as argument, really, but – couldn’t you have made similar statements if Wedge had announced that “Brendan Ryan will be our second baseman”? Admittedly Ryan’s played some second base, but (unless I’m misreading something on FanGraphs) really not a whole lot.
If we try to look at the glass as half full and not that the Mariners glass has a giant crack in the bottom of it… Wedge and the Mariners’ front office may be willing to throw away some trade value that might exist for Wilson in exchange for giving Ryan more playing time at SS and not screwing him up by having him try to move to 2nd, only to move back to SS when Ackley comes up. Not screwing Ryan up could be the long term payoff. (In the last 2 years, he has played 244 games at SS and 19 at 2nd…)
After watching Jose Lopez play second base, I’m not sure that Chone Figgins was any worse than Jose would have been last year. And at third I don’t think Jose’s lack of range was as big of an issue.
In the end neither last year’s defensive placement decision nor this year’s will probably mean more than a game or two at the most in the win column.
I’m fine with whatever the manager thinks is best for the team on this one.
I’m glad they’re going ahead with Ryan at SS. There’s really no point in delaying the inevitable just to (maybe) salvage some of Wilson’s salary.
Maybe we’re looking at this backwards. They might be getting Ryan some trade value by being the best defensive infield glove in the league. They trade him at the deadline (he’s gotta be worth more than old man Wilson). They move Ackley up, patch up the rest of the season with Wilson at short and open the door for a Franklin-Ackley middle infield in 2012.
Finally. I hadn’t disagreed in so long, it was actually getting spooky.
I love this move. I can’t imagine this is about trade value, as Wilson has none and wouldn’t gain more simply by moving down a step on the defensive spectrum. Rather, this simply gives the M’s a better infield. With Wilson’s defense sliding, upgrading to Ryan could get the M’s as much as a win on defense alone. At the plate it’s essentially a toss-up, but the M’s may have some hope that part-time play may allow Wilson to get more out of his failing body. And as you say, playing part time allows the M’s to have a natural platoon at 2B while they wait for Ackley.
Basically, I think it’s clear that going from Wilson to Ryan full-time saves more runs than whatever Wilson would cost us due to switching to a new position. It’s a more flexible line-up, it makes Ackley’s arrival easier to handle, and it’s thus better for 2012 and beyond. Sounds good to me.
The longer-term issue for this team is that Brendan Ryan is going to be the SS for the next two years. This seems more about moving Ryan to SS now instead of inevitably waiting until June, while putting the expendable player at the position you know is getting replaced mid-season.
As for Jack Wilson’s trade value, The M’s won’t be getting a true prospect back, and all we’re really talking about is how much money the M’s will have to eat. Also we don’t know that Wilson can’t hack SS any more, and hiding his flaws at 2nd will only trick a club that needs a SS into thinking he’s still got something left.
First thing I thought of, too.
I would love to see it happen, but is Franklin really going to be ready for a major league job at age 21? The kid’s had a good first run, but really? I think that’s an optimistic timetable.
Of course, if he can hold down an ML job in ’12, then you’re looking at a helluva player. I’d love to see it, but my skeptical light turns on.
Overall? I think the whole move is much ado about nothing. I don’t think Jack Wilson’s going to make much of an impact on this year’s M’s, given his long injury history and apparent decline. I think that’s the driver behind this decision.
I see this move more about putting the best team out there instead of just putting guys on the field because they have a contract. Wilson has no trade value at SS so why not get him out of there so Ryan, who is younger and has upside, can stay comfortable there.
I like this move a lot. My basic view is that Ryan is the potential shortstop of the near future, at least until Nick Franklin gets a look, so we should focus on giving him play time there, and how we use Ja. Wilson should be a secondary consideration. Jack Wilson sucks and the sooner he sucks too much start, the sooner I get to see Dustin Ackley, who is a better baseball player than Wilson, in Seattle.
Love this move. Ackley will be up as soon as his service time allows. 2ndbase is hopefully filled for the next 6+ years. Mise well hope we found a SS with Ryan. Jack Wilson is almost certainly off the team by the end of the year.
I think Wilson does have trade value, but agree that moving him to second does nothing to enhance it. I look at the Brewers and the Giants and see two teams that will be dying for defensive help at SS as the season wears on. Especially the Brewers who will be good enough offensively to absorb Wilson’s weak bat.
I’m thinking along the same lines as Just a Fan. Barring disaster, 2B will be filled by Ackley soon. If Ryan is a part of the longer-term plan, that’ll be at SS. It makes a certain amount of sense to start playing him there now.
But I’m approaching this as someone who just doesn’t know about Wilson’s trade value. I don’t know if other teams value him over other options. I don’t know whether there’s a meaningful chance of getting something interesting in return. If I knew there was, I’d probably feel differently about the position swap.
I think it makes sense in the Kennedy-Wilson department… Keeping them BOTH healthy, and giving us a starter as our bench middle infielder, who then ALSO becomes trade fodder when Ackley is ready (whoever has better value at the time– Adam Kennedy or Jack Wilson).
Brendan Ryan is really the only one of the three I’d feel comfortable playing on a daily basis, so I like putting him at his natural spot. And putting him where he won’t have to make a change mid-season if/when Ackley comes up.
I also like that the guys with the nearest expiration dates are being given the least consideration. Which is how it should be on a team that wants to be competitive indefinitely. Sends a good message to the guys on your team, and the players throughout the league too: “If you’re better than who we have currently– you get the job.” Jack Wilson could be fine with this too, as I’m sure his priority right now is to stay on the field and play as many games as he can.
Whoever hits best deserves to be on the field, both need to do better than last year, both could potentially be better this year. We’ll have to wait and see. Hopefully it’s not déjà vu all over again (as Yogi would say).
Uhh… Milton Bradley?
He’s certainly looking good this spring – but does anyone have any illusions at all that he’ll be a Mariner come 2012?
Or, for that matter, that he’ll even be healthy come August?
How long did it take you to type that word?
PitchFX has Felix pitching almost all off speed. Hmmm.
Wilson’s trade value is only determinant on supply/demand and a team’s desperate response for a mid-season playoff push; moving him to second for a few months will not affect that. If anything playing him part-time will save his health enough to retain any perceived value he may have. I think the best we can hope for is a salary dump, but I’d still like to see something along the lines of the Washburn return.
If Ryan is indeed our future at short until Franklin takes over, this move can only benefit the long-term success of the team.
As stated:
Isn’t it strange how Carlos Triunfel has fallen off people’s radar screens?
It’s not strange. He’s been a bad hitter and injured.
I think you’re dreaming on this one. I suppose anything is within the realm of possibility, but that’s extremely unlikely. A reasonable time-frame for Franklin as the starter at short would be late 2013 or early 2014, if he proves to be capable of it. It’s possible that he plays full-time sooner than that, but the most you can hope for in 2012 is a cup of coffee in September.
MrZDevotee summed up the pluses of this one well. As arranging deck chairs on the Titanic goes, both chairs just got a bit cozier. I like this move.
Baker’s blog post about it today had some great analysis too.
As far as Franklin in 2012… isn’t that really fast, even if he has a great year in Tacoma?
I believe that Wilson can play a good 2B blindfolded. I like this move, as it’s as far as we can go with what we got. With Kennedy, I feel like it’s 3 wiley veterans who will push each other and have some fun. I mean we could lose 100 games without them.
I don’t like this move. I think Dave is absolutely right.
It smells like unnecessary fiddling around by management to me.
I still think that Z and Wak and crew’s “getting too cute”, “trying to show off smarts” (after being lucky in 2009) contributed to the mess that was 2010.
And I’m not sold on Brendan Ryan at all. Why should he get handed the starting job? Is the overall package really better than a healthy Wilson?
It doesn’t seem wise to line things up on the assumption that Wilson will be automatically hurt. Wouldn’t it make more sense to just slide Ryan in at SS once Wilson really gets hurt?
After all, Wilson did drop 10+ pounds and is looking pretty good.
@samregens:
The question is, when is the last time we’ve seen a healthy Jack Wilson? Why should it be assumed that this is the year he magically stays healthy?
I’d say when Jack is healthy he and Ryan are about equal and when you factor in durability and long term value to the team, I think its a no brainer to give the job to Ryan.
Personally, I’d defer to the experts on this. The impact either way is minimal, so I’d just trust Wedge and Z’s judgment.
Why shouldn’t he? Didn’t he start a lot for a competitive St. Louis team?