Game 22, A’s At Mariners

Dave · April 23, 2011 at 5:46 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

Vargas vs Cahill, 6:10 pm.

After getting shutout by a couple of power right-handers, the A’s will get something entirely different tonight in Jason Vargas. Vargas is off to a pretty nice start this year, posting a 3.40 xFIP through his first four starts. Interestingly, his strikeout rate is up significantly while his swinging strike rate is actually down over his normal mark – the cause appears to be his big jump in first strike percentage (69.8% so far this year), allowing him to pitch ahead in the count and allocate most of his whiffs to two-strike situations where they’ll result in a knockout. Vargas doesn’t have the stuff to keep striking hitters out at this rate, but if he keeps throwing strikes and getting ahead of hitters, he’s got a chance to have another good year.

Bradley’s out of the line-up again and Smoak won’t return to the team until Tuesday, but you’re probably used to this kind of line-up by now:

Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Kennedy, 1B
Cust, DH
Saunders, CF
Rodriguez, SS
Olivo, C
Peguero, LF
Wilson, 2B

Comments

43 Responses to “Game 22, A’s At Mariners”

  1. Westside guy on April 23rd, 2011 5:58 pm

    Well, I suppose the good news is – with Bradley’s body reaching its annual falling-apart point, Saunders will probably get to stay up and even play a fair bit even once Guti is back.

    The bad news is – Cust is our Designated Hitter.

  2. Ibuprofen on April 23rd, 2011 5:59 pm

    Glad to see Peguero playing, I’d love to see him go yard

  3. Dutch on April 23rd, 2011 6:06 pm

    Seattle fans have been clamoring for a player who could take a walk, and now that we have one, we want to toss him right out. Cust’s BABIP is 60 points below his career average now, and his power’s usually cold in April according to Jeff/Matthew at LL. We can let the man play through May.

  4. CarpCarter on April 23rd, 2011 6:07 pm

    Just a heads-up for other Mariners fans scattered throughout the country, this game is tonight’s free MLB.TV game.

  5. texasmarinerfan on April 23rd, 2011 6:11 pm

    But the game isn’t free if you ALREDAY have MLB.TV.

  6. texasmarinerfan on April 23rd, 2011 6:12 pm

    Dave does have a point, Vargas is throwing a ton of first pitch strikes.

  7. Edgar4Hall on April 23rd, 2011 6:20 pm

    I’m really glad that Guti was diagnosed, especially with something like IBS which seems kinda manageable. But God is that embarassing that we have to broadcast that on tv

  8. Westside guy on April 23rd, 2011 6:20 pm

    Dutch, stop trying to confuse me with stuff that doesn’t support my presuppositions!

  9. Edgar4Hall on April 23rd, 2011 6:22 pm

    WHy did we send Figgins? He keeps getting more worthless

  10. juneau_fan on April 23rd, 2011 6:23 pm

    Figgy, Figgy, Figgy… Pudding.

  11. G-Man on April 23rd, 2011 6:23 pm

    Bad send – out by a lot.

  12. Ibuprofen on April 23rd, 2011 6:23 pm

    Bad idea to send him there, we can’t place all the blame on Figgins this time.

    The Senator (I love that nickname) is still awesome though

  13. Edgar4Hall on April 23rd, 2011 6:24 pm

    we can’t place all the blame on Figgins this time

    But it’s so FUN to! lol

  14. juneau_fan on April 23rd, 2011 6:28 pm

    *shaking fists in frustration*

  15. Chipanese on April 23rd, 2011 6:30 pm

    I guess I can understand sending Figgins. I mean, c’mon, Cust is at the plate…

  16. Ibuprofen on April 23rd, 2011 6:40 pm

    Peguero is freaking fast for a guy that big. If that’s tapped down the third baseline instead of right out in front that’s an infield hit.

  17. juneau_fan on April 23rd, 2011 6:43 pm

    It’s almost like they’re trying to not score.

  18. juneau_fan on April 23rd, 2011 6:56 pm

    I can remember when Mark Ellis was the Great White Shoed Hope. Whatever happened with that?

  19. djw on April 23rd, 2011 7:08 pm

    Ah, saved by Coco Crisp’s extraordinary peripheral vision…

  20. G-Man on April 23rd, 2011 7:10 pm

    Kids, you’ve now seen two entirely different ways to screw yourselves out of a run – being too aggressive and being too conservative.

  21. Paul B on April 23rd, 2011 7:13 pm

    Cust’s BABIP is 60 points below his career average now, and his power’s usually cold in April according to Jeff/Matthew at LL.

    Except, I think his BABIP is low simply because he doesn’t seem capable of hitting the ball out of the infield.

  22. Dutch on April 23rd, 2011 7:15 pm

    I’m a little surprised by Guti’s diagnosis. Either a) why wouldn’t IBS be one of the first things doctors test for, b) can we really find relief in this diagnosis. I could have sworn they had already written off IBS, so can we really believe this is it? Or will it be like the temporary relief ‘slow digestive tract’ gave us?

    and woo, Saunders…

  23. Ibuprofen on April 23rd, 2011 7:15 pm

    Condor needs to play everyday so he can do that consistently.

    Edit: Er, I meant the double. Not get thrown out at 3rd.

  24. Dutch on April 23rd, 2011 7:16 pm

    Except, I think his BABIP is low simply because he doesn’t seem capable of hitting the ball out of the infield.

    The groundball rate is way high, I’ll give you that. Don’t know if he has enough PA’s to make it significant though.

    and boo, Saunders…

  25. juneau_fan on April 23rd, 2011 7:17 pm

    *clutching head, tugging at hair*

  26. samregens on April 23rd, 2011 7:21 pm

    Westside might not agree with me (we had this discussion before) but it is mighty irritating when you have someone not named Ichiro or Figgins going after stealing bases and getting nailed.

    I mean (as a nonspeedy runner) if you completely catch the opposition napping and get it then fine, but if you have a good chance to make an out then it smells like irresponsibility.

    Don’t go freaking “all out” in the game when it counts if you can’t reliably do it in practice!! Go “all out” in effort during preparation and practice, and then convert it in the game.

    I’m following the game today on the internet and might not have the full picture but Saunders is a moron for getting caught stealing third with 2 outs and a 2 balls no strikes count.

  27. Ibuprofen on April 23rd, 2011 7:24 pm

    Guti would have had that

    :[

  28. Dutch on April 23rd, 2011 7:25 pm

    Oh…. Guti would’ve had that..

  29. CarpCarter on April 23rd, 2011 7:25 pm

    Why do the Mariners ALWAYS shit the bed on free MLB.TV night.

  30. Dutch on April 23rd, 2011 7:28 pm

    I don’t know if I can handle much more of that… Saunders is so close to ending this inning…. and then fit hits the shan…

  31. samregens on April 23rd, 2011 7:29 pm

    Figures that the offense does something really moronic (Saunders) and then the pitcher just gives the game away right the next inning.

  32. Dutch on April 23rd, 2011 7:47 pm

    Man, we really needed that to leave the yard

  33. juneau_fan on April 23rd, 2011 7:57 pm

    The M’s owe it to Vargas to win this one for him when he hasn’t been that sharp tonight, but…

  34. juneau_fan on April 23rd, 2011 8:04 pm

    And, ugh.

  35. nvn8vbryce on April 23rd, 2011 8:08 pm

    I guess our “gas can” winner of the evening is Vargas… I guess that Lueke is trying to catch up fast. Odds on us getting another miracle 7th – 9th are slim and none…

  36. z4ec on April 23rd, 2011 8:08 pm

    Lueke sucks.

  37. SODOMOJO360 on April 23rd, 2011 8:10 pm

    Lueke needs to go down to Tacoma and work on some things.

  38. nvn8vbryce on April 23rd, 2011 8:14 pm

    Lueke needs to go down to Tacoma and work on some things pitching better.

    I fixed that for ya!

  39. nvn8vbryce on April 23rd, 2011 8:14 pm

    Gas, meet torch.

  40. juneau_fan on April 23rd, 2011 8:46 pm

    And the thread dies like our hopes and dreams.

  41. Westside guy on April 23rd, 2011 10:01 pm

    Westside might not agree with me (we had this discussion before) but it is mighty irritating when you have someone not named Ichiro or Figgins going after stealing bases and getting nailed.

    Nope, not gonna disagree with you at all. It was dumb, doubly so with two outs.

    I think this team has made a LOT of stupid running decisions, and they keep costing us. I’m tired of hearing people talk about it like it’s a positive. There’s smart baserunning and then there’s just being mindlessly aggressive.

  42. samregens on April 23rd, 2011 10:16 pm

    I think this team has made a LOT of stupid running decisions, and they keep costing us. I’m tired of hearing people talk about it like it’s a positive. There’s smart baserunning and then there’s just being mindlessly aggressive.

    Well said. Let’s hope they can take the series tomorrow.

  43. Westside guy on April 23rd, 2011 10:45 pm

    I don’t know how often Fangraphs updates their stats – it’s obviously not nightly, since Saunders failed steal tonight wasn’t on there – but the Mariners’ overall are listed as having 17 stolen bases with 9 caught stealing. If you take away Ichiro’s 7SB/1CS, you’re looking at 10 steals and 8 failures.

    I expect there are more advanced studies about this, but I believe the general logic has been if your baserunning success rate is under 70% (or thereabouts) you’re hurting the team not helping. Well, the bulk of the Mariners’ efforts are falling way, WAY below that – barely above 50%.

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