Ackley Coming Up “Soon” – Maybe Tomorrow

Dave · May 17, 2011 at 2:43 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

Yesterday, Jack Zduriencik went on KJR with Mitch Levy and said that Dustin Ackley would be up “sooner than later”. Ackley then proceeded to hit a home run on the first pitch of the Rainiers game today and added a couple of singles as well, giving him another three hit day and continuing his torrid run through the PCL of late. This afternoon, I was told that soon could equal tomorrow, as the organization is apparently considering promoting Ackley to the roster after tonight’s game.

Now, I want to make sure this is all spelled out; It wasn’t Jack who told me this, so the information could be wrong. He also didn’t say that they were definitely calling him up – the way it was described to me is that they were going to talk about whether he should come up tomorrow. The Rainiers have an off-day to travel back from New Orleans, and so from a logistical standpoint, there are reasons to do it tomorrow. The team probably would prefer he debut at home to a warm reception, and may rather call him up while he’s scorching hot rather than waiting a few weeks and having a potentially cooled off Ackley make his debut with a little less confidence.

They might decide to just leave him down for a few more weeks in order to get past the presumed deadline for Super Two status, but I was told that wasn’t much of a consideration because most people in baseball don’t think the Super Two statute will still exist by the time Ackley would be eligible for it. It’s a part of the arbitration rules that no one really likes, and it could easily be abolished in the next collective bargaining agreement – the current version expires in December.

The team has already crossed the threshold of service time where Ackley is guaranteed to be under team control through 2017, so they would not lose him to free agency a year early by calling him up now. They do risk the possibility that he ends up qualifying for arbitration after 2013, which could escalate his salaries fairly quickly, but if they believe that Super Two status won’t exist in a few years, than there wouldn’t be any financial harm in calling him up now.

As for who would go away to make room for him, my guess would be Luis Rodriguez. Despite my fondness for the little guy, his line right now is just .173/.279/.308, and there’s a pretty good chance he’d make it through waivers. The M’s could probably flip-flop those two without having to give up any organizational depth or make a call on a Jack Wilson trade right away.

Obviously, we’ll find out tomorrow. I don’t know that the team will call Ackley up, but it’s apparently being talked about. It’s obvious that he’ll be up soon – the only question is whether soon is tomorrow or a few weeks from now.

Comments

63 Responses to “Ackley Coming Up “Soon” – Maybe Tomorrow”

  1. Carson on May 17th, 2011 2:46 pm

    Well, huzzah I say.

  2. msb on May 17th, 2011 2:49 pm

    The notion that we might have both Ackley and Gutierrez on the field makes things so much nicer.

  3. Pete on May 17th, 2011 2:52 pm

    Dave, do you mean 2017? 2012, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 makes six.

  4. thurston24 on May 17th, 2011 2:56 pm

    Dave, thanks for announcing the post on twitter, its really nice when you do that.

  5. eloomis on May 17th, 2011 2:59 pm

    I guess the only question I have is whether Jack Wilson is going to throw a fit about being on the bench. Or maybe they move Ryan to the bench and move Wilson back to SS.

  6. Carson on May 17th, 2011 3:10 pm

    I guess the only question I have is whether Jack Wilson is going to throw a fit about being on the bench.

    Pretty good chance he won’t be around to throw a fit.

  7. Leroy Stanton on May 17th, 2011 3:10 pm

    So, which middle infielder would go, if any?

  8. griffin on May 17th, 2011 3:11 pm

    eloomis- I guess the only question I have is whether Jack Wilson is going to throw a fit about being on the bench.

    I say, who cares? Jack Wilson isn’t going to be here next year anyway, so who cares if he cries about it. We should keep Ryan at SS if he’s going to be here longer than Wilson, which I’m assuming he will be.
    Split the time at 2B with Wilson and Ackley, until we can possibly trade Wilson?
    This is exciting. Like msb said, Guti and Ackley coming up together/near future makes this team much more fun.

  9. dgood on May 17th, 2011 3:11 pm

    Would they move Kyle Seager up to Tacoma when Ackley moves to the Majors? I would like to see that.

  10. dallin on May 17th, 2011 3:12 pm

    Is Ackley a full-time starter right away?

  11. Jim_H on May 17th, 2011 3:15 pm

    I say bring him up.

    I’m really enjoying watching Smoak, Peguero, and Wilson… Even when the games are otherwise painful to watch, seeing these guys doing well makes me all tingly.

  12. CarpCarter on May 17th, 2011 3:15 pm

    I know we’re all excited about Ackley, but having watched him over the last two days, the guy is simply not ready to play 2B at the Major League level. Unless you enjoy the exploits of Chone “Whoops maybe the next one” Figgins and think we need more of that in the middle infield, Ackley needs more work defensively before he should join the big league club. Again, my opinion.

    In two games I watched him botch a DP, drop a cutoff throw, drop a fly ball, and I have to question his range and first-step since I saw a lot of grounders sneak past his glove into right and center. He’s raking right now, but confidence at the plate and confidence in the field are two different things.

    That said, it would be cool if I just attended Ackley’s last game as a Rainier. He said words to me.

    EDIT: I haven’t seen anything about this, but Guti was not in the lineup today (started last night) and I did not see him in the dugout. Is he back with the M’s?

  13. robbbbbb on May 17th, 2011 3:18 pm

    His defense can be below-average and we’re still talking a net gain for the team. Ackley would be replacing average-to-above-average and black-hole-with-the-bat Jack Wilson in the lineup. If he hits like a league-average 2B and fields below average, but not terrible, it’s a net win.

  14. IwearMsHats on May 17th, 2011 3:29 pm

    Already dropped Figgins for Ackley on my fantasy squad…if the information is coming from you, there’s a pretty good chance it will happen! That’s good enough for me, plus I had the satisfaction of dropping Figgins

    Feels good man.

  15. msfanmike on May 17th, 2011 3:31 pm

    Come on callup(s)!

    A potential Ackley siting – in person – as well as a Guti flyswatter (and maybe Guti too) … that would be great!!

  16. msfanmike on May 17th, 2011 3:34 pm

    That’s good enough for me, plus I had the satisfaction of dropping Figgins

    I feel good for you too!

    Plus, you had Figgins on your fantasy squad? Was that on purpose or did you lose a bet? Now I feel good and bad for you simultaneously. God speed Iwear … God speed.

  17. rmarshall on May 17th, 2011 3:37 pm

    Can’t wait to see Ackley in Seattle. Has Kennedy ever played any LF?? Would be good to keep his bat in the line-up on a consistent basis.

  18. MrZDevotee on May 17th, 2011 3:37 pm

    Carp
    Guty is back with the team. Supposedly he won’t play until later this week, but he’s in Seattle, will be in the dugout tonight and he and Wedge will discuss a plan to work him back into his full time position tomorrow.

    BAM!!! Good news comes in 3′s… Ackley, Guty, and…(hmmm… what could it be…)?

    Also, I’m guessing Dave is right about Rodriguez, because Adam Kennedy is raking… What I’d like to see is a rotation of Kennedy and Ackley at 2nd, with Kennedy also spelling Figgins on occasion. Makes the most sense (can’t keep Kennedy out of the lineup for too long anymore).

    That sends Saunders down to Tacoma (for Guty) and Rodriguez (hopefully thru waivers) down to Tacoma (for Ackley).

    Jack Wilson appears to be the odd man out.

    Looking forward to a lineup of:

    Ichiro
    Figgins
    Smoak
    Cust
    Guty
    Peguero/Wilson
    Ryan
    Ackley

    And as soon as Ackley gets comfortable and forces the issue, he and Figgins swap places in the lineup.

    WOW- a real lineup. Some bop, some base hitters, and some functional OBP guys.

    If we get hot, we could make a move for a DH at the deadline (ie, Fielder– since there’s no way we’ll go get him as a free agent).

    And suddenly, with our SP, we could be the SF Giants of 2011!

    (Or we could lose 90-100 games… But still, this HOPE stuff is fun!)

  19. B.W.Marx on May 17th, 2011 3:38 pm

    EDIT: I haven’t seen anything about this, but Guti was not in the lineup today (started last night) and I did not see him in the dugout. Is he back with the M’s?

    I know that the organization wanted to reevaluate him before putting him on the field, hence this could be the reasoning behind the no show.

  20. MrZDevotee on May 17th, 2011 3:39 pm

    (I left out Olivo, but maybe subconciously on purpose?)

  21. Ibuprofen on May 17th, 2011 3:45 pm

    So his first game might be Thursday? Because I’m already planning on going to that game, so that’d only be extra incentive to go.

  22. CarpCarter on May 17th, 2011 3:45 pm

    Carp
    Guty is back with the team. Supposedly he won’t play until later this week, but he’s in Seattle, will be in the dugout tonight and he and Wedge will discuss a plan to work him back into his full time position tomorrow.

    Excellent!

  23. sexymarinersfan on May 17th, 2011 3:49 pm

    Actually I’m betting that Saunders isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, at least until Gutierrez can prove that he can play on a regular basis. He’ll share LF duties with Peguero and Mike Wilson is the odd man out. Saunders is the only one who can play CF if Franklin goes down again, and don’t give me that Ichiro can slide over in a pinch crap! He looks like he’s lost a step anyways.

  24. IwearMsHats on May 17th, 2011 3:51 pm

    I feel good for you too!

    Plus, you had Figgins on your fantasy squad? Was that on purpose or did you lose a bet? Now I feel good and bad for you simultaneously. God speed Iwear … God speed.

    12 Team league, the talent pool is really thin! I figured I would get some steals out of him if anything.

  25. shortbus on May 17th, 2011 3:53 pm

    Already dropped Figgins for Ackley on my fantasy squad

    I drafted him ninth and kept him all year. This team doesn’t have a better player in the bigs and really needs hitters. Right now they aren’t fun to watch (at least not often) and they really need a reason for fans to come out.

    Not that most fans have heard of Ackley. But they’ve heard of winning and this could help. I’ve alrdeady put Ackley in tomorrow’s lineup.

  26. Steve Nelson on May 17th, 2011 3:59 pm

    That sends Saunders down to Tacoma (for Guty)

    Not likely to happen. With Langherhans gone, Saunders will be the backup CF. As Baker posted, it’s most likely that Wilhelmsen will go down when Guti comes back.

  27. shortbus on May 17th, 2011 4:02 pm

    Yeah, I can’t imagine the team is ready to count on Gutierrez full time in CF right away. Saunders is also probably our best option in left field for the time being, all things considered. Hoping Peguero can luck into a home run is fun, but watching him circle aimlessly under fly balls is not.

  28. Westside guy on May 17th, 2011 4:04 pm

    He looks like he’s lost a step anyways.

    I learned, several games ago, NEVER to say this again! It was as if Ichiro had been reading USS Mariner in between innings and decided to make me look like a fool.

    I do, however, agree with your assessment that the M’s won’t ask him to cover center. The thing about Saunders is – his offense has indeed been abysmal; but his defense in center has been good enough that he’s basically breaking even WAR-wise.

  29. Edgar4Hall on May 17th, 2011 4:24 pm

    Steve I like what you posted about Wilhelmsen possiby going down, I’d much rather it be him than Big Mike. I really enjoy seeing that mean mug he has out in left. Plus, even if you don’t like Big Mike, I thikn we can all agree he has more potential than Wilhelmsen

  30. rsrobinson on May 17th, 2011 4:53 pm

    Yes, please bring Ackley up tomorrow. If I’m going to watch a sub .500 ballclub I’d rather do it with developing youngsters in the lineup rather than castoff vets with no future here. Hell, I’d even like to see Carp given a shot at the DH. At least he’d be a threat to occasionally pop one, unlike Jack “Warning Track Power” Cust.

  31. number3 on May 17th, 2011 5:00 pm

    If Ackley struggles defensively second, why not move him to left field? Not like anyone’s locked down that position yet.

    I know he’s more valuable to us at second though.

  32. shortbus on May 17th, 2011 5:08 pm

    Left field is the fallback if Ackley doesn’t work out at second, is my guess. Jack Z said he’s so much more valuable at second he’ll get every chance to stick there.

  33. Ibuprofen on May 17th, 2011 5:13 pm

    At least he’d be a threat to occasionally pop one, unlike Jack “Warning Track Power” Cust.

    Alright, I understand that Cust’s lack of any home runs is annoying, but the hate on him really needs to stop. Cust is starting to hit doubles regularly and on top of that he walks a lot. The guy had a slow start, let’s not crucify him for it. Especially since he’s starting to hit pretty well.

  34. Westside guy on May 17th, 2011 5:23 pm

    But, Ibuprofen, don’t you understand that walks are worthless?

    /sarcasm

  35. KiWiNiNjA on May 17th, 2011 5:24 pm

    Yeah, the Cust hate is ridiculous. He’s hitting .350/.435/.550 over the last week with 4 doubles and a 6 game hitting streak. DFA him now!!!

  36. Edgar4Hall on May 17th, 2011 5:25 pm

    Agreed about Cust and has Carp done anything ever to warrant a callup?

  37. Chris_From_Bothell on May 17th, 2011 5:31 pm

    It’s almost too bad Cust is starting to heat up; DH might be a soft landing for Ackley if they’re concerned about defense. But Cust is heading towards a sort of Cust-ish May and there’s no point in platooning 2 lefties. So yeah. Ackley and Guti here, L-Rod and a pitcher (Ray?) down. 11-man pen until WIlson is traded.

    Man, I wish Moore was healthy… the youth movement would be as close to complete as we can get until/unless Figgins leaves…

  38. Ibuprofen on May 17th, 2011 5:39 pm

    But, Ibuprofen, don’t you understand that walks are worthless?

    /sarcasm

    I know, it’s just like Joe Morgan says, it clogs up the base baths! ;)

  39. Chris_From_Bothell on May 17th, 2011 5:41 pm

    He’s hitting .350/.435/.550 over the last week with 4 doubles and a 6 game hitting streak. DFA him now!!!

    So, when does small sample size, the common mantra here, apply?

    I’m honestly not being snarky, I’m asking seriously. I’ve seen a week, 2 weeks, a month, 6 weeks dismissed as small sample size in some cases and used as solid reasoning in others. And there’s the fangraphs article with research on how many plate appearances it takes for OBP, etc. to be “real” for a given season.

    I just don’t get the rules for when “small sample size” is a legitimate rebuttal…

  40. spankystout on May 17th, 2011 5:43 pm

    I doubt Ackley is any worse at 2B than Jose Lopez, Figgins, or Jack Wilson. Dustin probably has the best bat of the group, and he is not the worst defensively; why not bring him up and give worthless-Jack Wilson the boot?

  41. IwearMsHats on May 17th, 2011 5:44 pm

    If the M’s truly don’t care about Super-2 then they will call him up tomorrow even if his defense is below average. Why would they wait a couple weeks? Will his defense suddenly improve in that span of time? And will they not call him up this year if his defense does NOT improve?

  42. Westside guy on May 17th, 2011 5:47 pm

    Agreed about Cust and has Carp done anything ever to warrant a callup?

    Carp’s been hitting very well. The main problem is he’s a first baseman. Also, people who follow the minor leagues don’t think Carp’s more than an AAAA player, despite his ability to hit in AAA ball.

  43. rsrobinson on May 17th, 2011 5:49 pm

    Yes, a DH with a .298 slugging percentage is “annoying.” Cust’s walks and doubles have produced a wretched .671 OPS so far and he has just 13 HRs in his last 470 ABs since last year. He doesn’t seem capable of catching up with a fastball anymore so does it really appear like he’s likely to produce much more than walks and an occasional gap double? Unless he suddenly finds his stroke from two or three years ago I have trouble seeing him getting to 10 HRs this season in a position that requires power.

    Meanwhile Mike Carp already has 10 HRs in Tacoma by mid-May and has been crushing the ball. I’d rather give him a shot and see what he can do.

  44. Westside guy on May 17th, 2011 5:52 pm

    I know, it’s just like Joe Morgan says, it clogs up the base baths!

    I’ve cringed whenever I’ve heard Joe Morgan doing baseball analysis. I gotta admit his approach certainly worked well… for Joe Morgan! But it’s as if Ichiro were to take his own unique approach and start spouting off regarding how everyone else needs to be swinging at most anything their bats can reach, etc. What works great for Ichiro doesn’t work as well for lesser mortals such as, say, Jose Lopez. ;-)

  45. Westside guy on May 17th, 2011 5:56 pm

    So, when does small sample size, the common mantra here, apply?

    I think the issue in this specific case is people were already dismissing Cust based on a small sample size (April) – so in that case it seems perfectly legitimate to pull up another small sample size performance (May so far) in rebuttal.

  46. Chipanese on May 17th, 2011 5:56 pm

    Hmmm Seager isn’t starting in AA tonight. Could he be moving up to Tacoma? But then again, Poythress isn’t in the line-up so they’re probably getting a day off…

  47. djw on May 17th, 2011 6:00 pm

    “So, when does small sample size, the common mantra here, apply?
    I’m honestly not being snarky, I’m asking seriously. I’ve seen a week, 2 weeks, a month, 6 weeks dismissed as small sample size in some cases and used as solid reasoning in others. And there’s the fangraphs article with research on how many plate appearances it takes for OBP, etc. to be “real” for a given season.”

    Two issues:

    Issue #1: Quality of the sample. Lots of crappy hitters can post a good average over a brief period of time without it meaning everything. However, Cust isn’t just getting lucky grounders and bloops–he’s hitting the ball harder, and with authority.

    Issue #2: The nature of the claim being rebutted. If a 39 year old who’d been declining and hasn’t been particularly good for years has a good couple of weeks, and you declare he’s turned a corner on the strength of a good couple of weeks, that’s pretty dumb. However, what we have here is just the opposite: Cust is only 32, apparently healthy, and has a track record of being an very good hitter that was in full effect through the 2010 season. So the sample is small, but it’s confirming what the general trajectory of baseball players tells is likely–that he’s a good hitter who slumped for the first five weeks of the season. Those claiming he was “done” on the strength of a bad April were the ones claiming a small sample as evidence of a huge trajectory shift in his career term. That was always unlikely to be true–although it was possible. His recent success just makes the unlikeliness of his being “done” (or in severe decline) more evident.

  48. shortbus on May 17th, 2011 6:02 pm

    Hmmm Seager isn’t starting in AA tonight. Could he be moving up to Tacoma? But then again, Poythress isn’t in the line-up so they’re probably getting a day off…

    Must be fun creating lineups for a minor league team knowing your every decision will create a raft of rumors.

  49. IwearMsHats on May 17th, 2011 6:02 pm

    Maybe it’s Seager getting called up!

  50. beadyeyes123 on May 17th, 2011 6:11 pm

    Steve I like what you posted about Wilhelmsen possiby going down, I’d much rather it be him than Big Mike. I really enjoy seeing that mean mug he has out in left. Plus, even if you don’t like Big Mike, I thikn we can all agree he has more potential than Wilhelmsen

    Wilhelmsen has some upside. To say Wilson has more upside is silly. I’d love to be proven wrong but Big Mike has AAAA written all over him.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see Wilson hit at this level but Wilhelmsen throws hard and if he ever figures out how to throw strikes consistently could be quite good.

  51. Chris_From_Bothell on May 17th, 2011 6:14 pm

    SSS explanations make sense, thanks.

    Actually planning to go to the game tomorrow, so Ackley or Guti showing up would be a nice treat…

  52. rsrobinson on May 17th, 2011 6:21 pm

    Cust is only 32, apparently healthy, and has a track record of being an very good hitter that was in full effect through the 2010 season.

    Cust was DFA’d by the A’s last year, passed through waivers, and started the season in AAA. After being called back up his hitting wasn’t anywhere near the level of “very good.”

    Cust is a stopgap DH who may regress to the mean and become a mediocre DH rather than a terrible one. My point was that I would rather give a young guy like Carp a shot. If he busts, he busts.

  53. Westside guy on May 17th, 2011 6:33 pm

    Cust was DFA’d by the A’s last year, passed through waivers, and started the season in AAA. After being called back up his hitting wasn’t anywhere near the level of “very good.”

    Cust’s 2010 line: .272/.395/.438

    So what’s your definition of “good” then?

    His improvement this month actually qualifies as “regression to the mean”, since his mean – even if you only look at 2010 – is better than his current 2011 numbers.

  54. msfanmike on May 17th, 2011 6:35 pm

    Cust is a stopgap DH who may regress to the mean and become a mediocre DH rather than a terrible one. My point was that I would rather give a young guy like Carp a shot. If he busts, he busts.

    It’s hard to disagree with any word of this … and I don’t.

    I think Carp will get a shot, but the questions are when, for how long and perhaps, “for which organization.” He may be gathering momentum for a callup both with Seattle and as a “part” in a trade in order to fill a position of need for the Mariners. Carp was one of the players that Jack traded for in that 12 player deal and wouldn’t it be a nice feather in his cap to say that he got 2 hitters (Guti and Carp) as well as a starting pitcher in that deal someday? Carp has the Z liked me at one time factor working for him.

    He isn’t going to supplant Smoak ever, but he could certainly (given time) prove to be a more than adequate replacement for Cust and he can also field a position on occasion … and he is only 24 years old! Cust is a stopgap and he has passed his prime years, so his leash isn’t very long. A bit longer than it was((now that he has “heated up), but not very long IMO

  55. joser on May 17th, 2011 6:51 pm

    The other thing about Cust is that he has a history of slow starts. His career wOBA in April is .207; in May it’s .262. And that understates things a bit, because last year he didn’t play in April, so his first month’s (May) wOBA was .317 and his second month’s (June) was .358 (and his July wOBA was .471). And that’s just last season, so it’s not like we’re going back to some much younger, pre-injury version of him.

    Now, I want to emphasize: I’m still very much the Cust skeptic. Just watching him he seems to be hitting the ball as hard as he can without being able to drive it out of the park, and I don’t understand how that changes with warmer weather. He certainly wouldn’t be the first player of this kind we’ve seen plummet through Seattle on his way out of baseball right around age 32. But given Cust’s career history above, I’m willing to wait until June, or even the trade deadline, before I’m sticking a fork in him.

  56. rsrobinson on May 17th, 2011 7:08 pm

    Now, I want to emphasize: I’m still very much the Cust skeptic. Just watching him he seems to be hitting the ball as hard as he can without being able to drive it out of the park, and I don’t understand how that changes with warmer weather

    This is what I’m seeing. He can’t turn on a fastball and even when he makes good contact he doesn’t reach the wall.

    I hope Cust turns it around and proves me wrong, but I don’t view this as anything more than a building year so I’m less willing to see young players blocked by a stopgap vet with no future with the franchise. Even if Cust improves to his 2010 level, if Carp keeps hitting in Tacoma I would rather give him a shot at DH even if its only to improve his stock as trade bait.

  57. djw on May 17th, 2011 7:13 pm

    Cust was DFA’d by the A’s last year, passed through waivers, and started the season in AAA. After being called back up his hitting wasn’t anywhere near the level of “very good.”

    Cust’s OPS+ last year: 128. His wOBA: 360. I don’t know exactly why he was DFA’d by Oakland, but if it was on the theory that he ceased to be a valuable hitter, they were not correct.

    Cust is a stopgap DH who may regress to the mean and become a mediocre DH rather than a terrible one. My point was that I would rather give a young guy like Carp a shot. If he busts, he busts.

    Cust has been an above average hitter for a DH in three of the last four seasons. I suppose he’s close enough to be average to be “mediocre” (if mediocrity is average, it’s underrated!). Carp’s current hitting in his third time around the AAA block doesn’t persuade me he’s not the pretty marginal prospect he’s widely understood to be; he’s more likely to be worse than Cust going forward in 2011 using the projection tools we have available.

    That said, if your view is that rebuilding years such as this should involve no veteran stopgaps whatsoever, and all prospects no matter how marginal should be given major league roster spots and let the chips fall where they may, I suppose I can respect that, while disagreeing. Your beef, then, is with the Cust signing, but it’s dishonest to pretend that his slow start is something more than it is, because you didn’t like the signing anyway on philosophical grounds.

  58. Edgar4Hall on May 17th, 2011 7:15 pm

    Wilhelmsen has some upside. To say Wilson has more upside is silly. I’d love to be proven wrong but Big Mike has AAAA written all over him.
    Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see Wilson hit at this level but Wilhelmsen throws hard and if he ever figures out how to throw strikes consistently could be quite good.

    I completely disagree. There is the fact he throws hard yes but it seems like that is a dime a dozen in the majors at this point and time. You can find new BP relief, and lets just say both pan out. I would much rather have a decent hitter than a good reliever on this team.

    Also to me, Wilson is a much better athlete. I love baseball but I coach football and played a bit at the DI level. You don’t get recruited by Oklahoma to be an LB in a spread oriented conference if you aren’t athletic. I firmly believe he could play OF as long as he gets his positioning and trajectories correct. Plus he has one thing that we need and that is when he his he hits for power. I really think he has earned a chance so yeah I guess I’m a sucker for Big Mike but if this is a season for rebuilding lets see what we have with the big guy. If he sucks it up, we just discard him, no harm no foul.

  59. rsrobinson on May 17th, 2011 7:23 pm

    That said, if your view is that rebuilding years such as this should involve no veteran stopgaps whatsoever, and all prospects no matter how marginal should be given major league roster spots and let the chips fall where they may,

    Nice strawman argument.

  60. djw on May 17th, 2011 7:56 pm

    I’m not sure how else to read your preference to forgo a player with an established level of performance above average for his position for a couple million, in favor of an extremely marginal prospect.

  61. rsrobinson on May 17th, 2011 8:42 pm

    I’m not sure how else to read your preference to forgo a player with an established level of performance above average for his position for a couple million, in favor of an extremely marginal prospect.

    Here’s a helpful hint: if you’re reframing an argument about a single player into an idiotic all or nothing statement, you’re engaging in a strawman argument.

    If you think that Cust is an above average DH then knock yourself out making that argument, but don’t put words into my mouth.

  62. djw on May 17th, 2011 9:06 pm

    I’m saying he’s been a better hitter than the average DH in the American league in three of the last four years, and an average DH in the 4th. There’s nothing particularly fancy or sophisticated about the analysis; I’m using standard measures to come to a banal and obvious conclusion. I’m not putting words in your mouth so much as granting you the courtesy of assuming you don’t deny simple facts.

    You now seem to be arguing/implying that either none of this is actually true, or it somehow doesn’t count because a bad April (unlike all his other bad Aprils) somehow means that track record is now irrelevant. On top of that, you seem to be arguing that a very marginal prospect (our host recently said he’d *might* have a career as a backup first baseman on a bad team…) is worth playing over him, because the team will retain the rights to this lousy player next year. Or, you seem to be arguing that a BABIP/Power strike in his third tour of AAA, not accompanied by any positive change in his contact rate or BB rate (indeed, those are slightly worse), is somehow evidence that he’s a much better prospect than he was six weeks ago. Neither of these make a whole lot of sense.

    If that’s not what you’re saying, feel free to say what you really are. Because it’s not at all clear at this point.

  63. rsrobinson on May 17th, 2011 9:56 pm

    It seems odd to me that an above average DH would be DFA’d and clear waivers, not be offered a contract by the A’s, and have the bidding war for his services top out at 1 year, $2.5M. Clearly the league hasn’t looked at your statistical analysis. Perhaps they’ve been too busy actually watching him play and have seen the declining power and bat speed.

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