Game 63, Mariners At Tigers
Fister vs Verlander, 4:05 pm.
Evaluating managers is hard – most of what their job actually entitles is done away from public view, and by and large, they all generally make the same decisions on the field anyways. What might be good for one team might be bad for another, and there are always things going on that we aren’t aware of. When someone asks me if a manager is good or bad, my standard response is generally “I don’t know.”
That said, I will note that there’s one thing we can fairly easily judge a manager on that does make an actual difference in terms of winning and losing games, and that’s how well he evaluates what players should be on the field the most often. Some managers just are better than others at maximizing the skills of their players, and put their team in a position to win more often than others.
I’d say that tonight’s line-up is another reason to be a little bit concerned that Eric Wedge is not particularly good at figuring out which players should be on the field. You’ll find the batting order below, but the short version is that Justin Smoak is getting the day off, Cust is again being displaced at DH by Mike Carp, and Greg Halman is starting in left field. All of this is happening against Justin Verlander, one of the best right-handed pitchers in baseball.
The Mariners have three players on the roster who have performed above the league average offensively this year – Smoak (131 wRC+), Kennedy (118), and Cust (106). All three can hit from the left-hand side, giving them the platoon advantage against a right-handed pitcher. Two of the three are not playing tonight. By moving Kennedy to first base, Wedge has essentially replaced Smoak’s bat in the line-up with Jack Wilson’s, and by using Carp at DH, he’s swapped out Cust’s bat for Halman’s.
The rationale that will be given is that Smoak has struggled since moving to the #3 spot, that Halman has been hot since he came up, blah blah blah. None of that matters. It’s all hogwash, and a bad use of statistics. The fact is that the Mariners are throwing out a lousy line-up against one of the game’s best pitchers, and that’s on Eric Wedge. He’s shown that he has a very low opinion of the value of a walk, and it looks like Cust is going to be the one to lose the most playing time with Carp on the roster. That’s not an upgrade, and it’s a bad use of the players he has on hand.
Wedge may be great at dealing with players, motivating the young kids, handling pitchers… I have no idea. I hope he is, because he’ll need to be good at some of that stuff to cancel out the fact that he’s shown that he’s not particularly great at realizing what makes a hitter effective.
Ichiro, RF
Ryan, SS
Kennedy, 1B
Olivo, C
Gutierrez, CF
Carp, DH
Halman, LF
Rodriguez, 3B
Wilson, 2B
Comments
128 Responses to “Game 63, Mariners At Tigers”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
I liked how Fish was able to take that the other way. Unfortunately it was an out. Awwww, there’s Halman’s first K of the year.
I would be willing to consider anybody who shows the ability to be able to fog a mirror – at this point – in comparison to the routine abilities demonstrated by some of the people where I work.
However, you do bring up a good point “MrZ”. Perhaps the screening criteria could be reviewed and refreshed.
It seems as though Ichiro’s leg raise is a bit more pronounced, a bit longer (in duration) and a bit further out in lean (thus the topping of many a baseball without squaring many up). Maybe it is just my imagination. Perhaps this is a recent “adjustment” he has made. Perhaps it is the reason for his issues.
Or, perhaps … none of the above.
Phook – I don’t know.
Has anybody else noticed a slight tweak in his load and stride?
Westy !!!!!!!!
I’m starting to panic about Ichiro. He looks bad.
Golden Sombrero!!
msfanmike, I agree that his batting stance looks different. Well it is indeed extremely painful to view now but I hope it pays off later.
And finally, Verlander comes out of the game.
But it’s not Olivo’s day either. *sigh*
…aaaaand tonight’s outcome came as little surprise.
I might have agreed a year ago (or six months ago or three months ago) that Carp is no improvement over Cust, but now I think he might be. He lost 25 pounds over the winter, got himself in great shape, gained some speed, and he’s gotten comfortable in the outfield. On top of all that, he combined his high batting average from 2009 with his better power from 2010 into one complete package in 2011, and he’s just turning 25 this month. It looks to me like we are seeing a player come into his prime…a bit ahead of time.
Let’s remember, there’s a reason young players often don’t perform as well at 22-23-and-24 as they do at 25-26-27-28. Some learn and improve, others don’t. Looks like Mike Carp has learned and matured to me. Let’s see how it plays out.
I don’t think we have to worry that Wedge doesn’t like the walk. He managed in Cleveland from 2002-2009, over that span the Indians had a 8.8 BB%, which ranked 4th behind the Red Sox, Yankees and A’s. So I don’t think he does discourage walks, even if he doesn’t emphasize as much as some managers. The Indians were 5th in ISO during that time too, so its not like he had to choose one or the other though. Walks and ISO are complimentary skills for good players, not opposites the way Baker seems to think, but I will allow that shitty players sometimes have to choose what to concentrate on. I seem to remember players like Barry Bonds could actually do both quite well.
One other thing I noticed looking at the 2002-2009 team stats was the Yankees had by far the worse defense in baseball over that span, -467 runs, the Mariners had by far the best defense with +244 runs, Ichiro and Beltre were 145 runs of that. I miss Beltre.
This article is an example of what Zduriencik once said that this site’s blind spot is the human element. Playing these kids sends a positive message to all the organization’s players. It’s about more than these three questionable big leaguers.
Carp has been smashing the ball in AAA. Just like Wilson and Peguero were earlier. The M’s are giving them a fair crack in the bigs. Maybe the team believes Peguero is never going to be a major leaguer, and/or Carp is a bench player in the NL. But they were slugging in Tacoma, so Zduriencik and Wedge have to play them in Seattle.
This shows everybody in the system that if they play well in Tacoma, they will play in Seattle. It’s a great message to every kid on the farm, an organizational plan to encourage hard work and better performance.
Halman, Peguero and Carp have played well enough in Tacoma to deserve a decent shot in Seattle. This team is still rebuilding. Be happy that the club is sticking it to the youth movement and the long-term plan despite their place in the standings.
Like how Mike Wilson played well in Tacoma and got called up…..
…only to play like 4 times a month.
Disagree on Cust, Dave. Yes he is great at working the count and taking walks but when we have no one to drive in runs behind him then he needs to be the one driving in runs. Notice how much he get’s on base yet he has barely scored this year. He is getting paid to drive in runs as long as he is in the 4 spot and it’s not happening. If you want to use his on base skills then put him in the 2 hole.
Nooooo…. I’m saying a guy that hits .350, but they are all 95% singles and 50 of those hits are infield hits that only advance runners one base, than he reall isn’t super value, certainly not 18 freakin million valuable.
He’s lucky he got that, and I am guessing that he is eternally grateful that he did. He’s still on the 40-man, he got 3 hits for Tacoma last night, including a HR, and they can bring him back when rosters expand in September.
Wilson was surplus once Halman arrived. Halman is standing in there far better than I expected him to, so far. He isn’t overswinging, or hacking at pure shit, as much as he was at Tacoma, or lunging into pitches like he used to do. He got a hit off Verlander’s slider, and the high fastballs he whiffed on were pitches he should be swinging at anyway.
Anyone who can’t see how far ahead in approach Halman is compared to Peguero isn’t paying attention. At least for now, Halman belongs here. Peguero doesn’t. Peguero needs the full season in AAA that Halman has had already.
2001-2010 total run production (runs+rbi)
Albert Pujols – 2416 total runs produced
Alex Rodriguez – 2366 total runs produced
Ichiro Suzuki – 1605 total runs produced
No one is arguing that he hasn’t been a very good leadoff hitter for a decade for this club. I’m simply arguing that he makes about double his worth, and deserves nowhere near the recognition he has received because he hits a lot of irrelevant singles that really don’t make an impact on the game. The difference between us and the Yankees is we have to string together 3 hits in an inning to score a run and Ichiro epitomizes that philosiphy. When you’re facing a stud like Verlander, you only get a couple of chances to touch him up every game. Singles will not beat a guy like that.
That WAR number is fun to talk about, but last time I checked, it doesn’t get you into the post-season.
Another thing I want to talk about is his selfish attitude. It was on display last night when he struck out on a ball in the dirt and the catcher had a tough time locating it. Olivo did this two nights ago and ran his ass off to first. Ichiro barely flinched and got maybe 5 steps up the line. How many superstars in sports write their own ticket the way Ichiro does? He has his own rules, his own game that nobody else gets to play. He thinks he’s above the team and I’m sick of manager’s allowing him to be. I hope Wedge sits him down to send a message and get better production from the leadoff spot.
I love the Mariners as much as you guys all do. I watch them every night and have done so since I was a little kid. Ken Griffey Jr. is my relegion and the ’95 and ’97 teams are two I will never forget. I just have a polarizing view of Ichiro. I hope that doesn’t mean we can’t all be respectful of one another. I’m just here to talk about my M’s.
I think you should post an article explaining why WAR is not a good measure of player value. You obviously do not think it is useful, so for any of us to take you seriously, you are going to have to explain why. Show your math.
Dude, seriously? That is how you evaluate players? By using counting measures of things that are predominately out of their control?
Do some reading, come back when you have cogent arguments so you don’t embarass yourself futher.
So, did you check and see if the post season teams had the lowest WAR? What exactly did you check?
When I evaluate run production, yes, typically runs and rbi tend to be what I look at.
WAR is a ficticous stat. Playing in October is substansial in the fact that it’s REAL.
With all due respect, Dave, you seriously don’t think Wedge knows that Cust and Smoak are two of his best hitters against right-handers? It seems pretty narrow-minded to me to assume that his decision to sit them is because of his ignorance of their platoon splits. I understand this is a stats-driven blog, and it’s fine to complain that he is sitting them regardless of their stats against right-handers, but to jump to the conclusion that he may be a bad manager because he is ignoring those statistics, and to disregard as irrelevant to the team’s success any other notion about why he might be sitting them comes across as a lazy application of statistical analysis as the be-all end-all factor in managing a baseball club to me.
Why WAR is silly. I agree with this article.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/469627-mlb-player-power-rankings-going-to-war-on-war-and-other-geeky-stats
Yeah, sounds like a great measure. :rolleyes:
Sorry Dave, but I’m not experiencing the same outrage you are over this one lineup. I have opinions that differ from you, MsFanMike has opinions that differ from either of us, and Eric Wedge has his own opinions that differ from any of us. We have no idea what JZ and him talk about behind closed doors. Wedge has pressed all the right buttons for me this year. He get the benefit of the doubt from me for quite a while before I’d start to questions his decision ability.
Did you like the squeeze btw?
Hmmmmmm…anyone else beginning to think that the “Seattle Mariners blog for analysis, commentary, and Ichiro! admiration” might not be the site for FELIXisKING?
Perhaps there is a site where pitchers are only evaluated by Wins and ERA…where hitters are only evaluated by BA, RBI and Runs…where stats are ignored in favor of gut feelings and recognizing “the human element”…where hitters can be identified at being “clutch”…and where calling Ichiro! selfish gets you cheers from the other participants.
USS Mariner, though, is pretty much the opposite of that…unabashedly and unashamedly so. Here is where geeky stats rule. Here is where confirmation bias and small sample sizes are identified and eradicated. Here is where we acknowledge the true value of players against those who are overrated by the old, unscientific way of valuing players.
It is a particular viewpoint that is, by and large, shared by those who participate in the comments here.
Not trying to be the internet police here, but there might not be much point in banging your head against the wall here.
FELIXisKING – Not to put words in his mouth, but I believe Paul was asking for evidence that the pieces and calculations that go into WAR are not being used correctly, or are being too heavily valued, or are otherwise not as good as whatever stats you think represent a player’s worth (e.g. AVG, HR, OPS, RBI, ERA, WHIP, whatever).
I have my own problems with some of the circular arguments that have come up here from time to time – i.e. you can only disprove our assertions by using the exact same math and definitions we used – but to be fair, you’re not answering Paul’s question at all.
Showing that another writer subjectively doesn’t like, understand or agree with WAR is not the same as showing the mathematical reasons why the stat is flawed. Another person being dismissive of something isn’t providing a counterargument. It’s just finding another guy to go “yeah! yeah, man. what he said.”
Hey pgreyy,
I think it can be a big tent. Even after hanging around the site for a number of years, I still think some players are better clutch hitters than others (maybe it has to do with breathing?). I suggested a few years back a way to evaluate that statistically; typically and expectedly, I got shouted down by the mob, but that doesn’t mean I still don’t believe it. I still love hanging out here and like to think that once in a while I make a relevant comment.
Isn’t the reality that no matter what the statistics show, there is always going to be a human element to the game that at least has to be considered? You may scoff at the notion of “chemistry,” but is it mere coincidence that just about the day the M’s jettisoned Milton Bradley they went on their hot streak? You may (and you are entitled to) say no, but I say maybe not. Maybe the enthusiasm with which Peguero plays the game, an immeasurable trait, has a measurable outcome — a better winning percentage.
Sure, statistics are great and I wouldn’t hang out here if I didn’t put a lot of faith in them. But I remember when I was a kid I developed a pure stat-driven model (rudimentary, yes) to measure the value of the Sonics players. A combination of points per minute, assists per minute, rebounds per minute, steals per minute, etc. Every time I did this, John Brisker would end up as the most valuable Sonic. But no one believed that he was, in real life. From all accounts, he was a difficult personality and had a hard time getting along with his teammates. I.e., “the human element”.
Anyway, long story short, instead of making a guy feel stupid for believing what he believes, doesn’t it make more sense to try to educate him? People who have different viewpoints sometimes bring a lot to the table. I’m not trying to stir up a hornet’s nest here, just trying to see it from the other point of view.
That’s totally understandable. A friend told me about this site as having really good Mariners content and since I haven’t been able to find an extremely active, quality messageboard, I saw that this place also had a comments section and thought I’d give it a whirl.
I appreciate the blunt yet kind nature of this post. While I still am not a fan of Ichiro the individual, I ALWAYS root for the team and that means every time he comes to the plate, I’m hoping he succeeds.
Let’s wash our hands of this first impression (which I basically butchered) and start a new, yeah?
We can talk about Felix. There’s a guy I will defend as the best the Majors has to offer all day long. 🙂
Great article at the Times about Wedge trying to change the culture of losing. I remember yesterday alot of people were questioning sitting Smoak and and Cust so i found this interesting in that regard especially.
Not sure the link worked. Sorry new here.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2015279731_mariners_trying_to_lay_the_gro.html
Agreed, and you’ll find very few detractors on that score around here. I just hope he has vintage Felix stuff- second Cy Young Award stuff- in the roughly 2/3 of the season left.
Because,man…when he’s in top form, he’s something to behold.