Game 63, Mariners At Tigers
Fister vs Verlander, 4:05 pm.
Evaluating managers is hard – most of what their job actually entitles is done away from public view, and by and large, they all generally make the same decisions on the field anyways. What might be good for one team might be bad for another, and there are always things going on that we aren’t aware of. When someone asks me if a manager is good or bad, my standard response is generally “I don’t know.”
That said, I will note that there’s one thing we can fairly easily judge a manager on that does make an actual difference in terms of winning and losing games, and that’s how well he evaluates what players should be on the field the most often. Some managers just are better than others at maximizing the skills of their players, and put their team in a position to win more often than others.
I’d say that tonight’s line-up is another reason to be a little bit concerned that Eric Wedge is not particularly good at figuring out which players should be on the field. You’ll find the batting order below, but the short version is that Justin Smoak is getting the day off, Cust is again being displaced at DH by Mike Carp, and Greg Halman is starting in left field. All of this is happening against Justin Verlander, one of the best right-handed pitchers in baseball.
The Mariners have three players on the roster who have performed above the league average offensively this year – Smoak (131 wRC+), Kennedy (118), and Cust (106). All three can hit from the left-hand side, giving them the platoon advantage against a right-handed pitcher. Two of the three are not playing tonight. By moving Kennedy to first base, Wedge has essentially replaced Smoak’s bat in the line-up with Jack Wilson’s, and by using Carp at DH, he’s swapped out Cust’s bat for Halman’s.
The rationale that will be given is that Smoak has struggled since moving to the #3 spot, that Halman has been hot since he came up, blah blah blah. None of that matters. It’s all hogwash, and a bad use of statistics. The fact is that the Mariners are throwing out a lousy line-up against one of the game’s best pitchers, and that’s on Eric Wedge. He’s shown that he has a very low opinion of the value of a walk, and it looks like Cust is going to be the one to lose the most playing time with Carp on the roster. That’s not an upgrade, and it’s a bad use of the players he has on hand.
Wedge may be great at dealing with players, motivating the young kids, handling pitchers… I have no idea. I hope he is, because he’ll need to be good at some of that stuff to cancel out the fact that he’s shown that he’s not particularly great at realizing what makes a hitter effective.
Ichiro, RF
Ryan, SS
Kennedy, 1B
Olivo, C
Gutierrez, CF
Carp, DH
Halman, LF
Rodriguez, 3B
Wilson, 2B
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I’ve wondered about Wedge for awhile, but since we have been winning, that has stayed a wonder, and not escalated to a worry.
Some of his pinch runner/hitter moves (or lack there of), his bullpen management, and lets not get started on the line up just leave me scratching my head sometimes.
*but… Figgins is not in the lineup, and thats probably off sets all the other horrible starters in the line up. Well, it does for me.
The one factor you maybe overlooking is that Wedge could going on the assumption that as close as they are to division lead in early June, that they won’t be close in late September. Therefore he maybe putting more emphasis on evaluating, and in the case of Smoak, nurturing younger talent, than concentrating on winning every game.
And Olivo back to clean up……
:s
On the plus side:
Figgins sits!
But what in the hell is he thinking? Why is today a good day to get Halman in the lineup and on the field?
I mean, I’m pretty sure that Halman can handle the FB, and Verlander is going to throw lots of heat. Problem is he throws it really good and really fast.
I feel that there’s something going on that we don’t know. There’s no way Wedge would be dumb enough to sit out two of our best lefties against one of the best righties… I mean, he’s shown that he’s dead set on using Wilson as a platoon guy. What the hell is he doing in the lineup batting against a righty?
Well after looking at Cust Vs Verlander
20ab 12K/1BB 4Hits 1HR
Verlander owns him.
At least that might be a reason
Wedge saying Cust was going to get less playing time already angered me, but if Cust can’t even get playing time when Smoak sits, then when can he? Is Wedge not going to start Cust ever again? Any chance the M’s had of making the playoffs disappears with decisions like these.
Odd lineup, fer sure. Sit both the pitch grinding vet and the most competent hitter (I’m ignoring Figgins completely here, don’t worry– glad he’s out) and then put the kids in against a crafty pitcher who can dominate?
Oh I get it– it’s like an unofficial rest day for everyone?
Either that, or it’s Fister who’s in Wedge’s doghouse currently.
——————————-
(Current conversation in the dugout):
Fister: “Hey Skip, you mad at me…”
Wedge: “Uh, no… Why you ask?”
(Doug eyes the lineup card again)
Fister: “Nothing… Just had a weird feelin’…”
Wedge: “Nope… Go get ‘em, kid…”
Fister whimpers his way out onto the field to start warming up.
I missed this – when did he say that?
Westy,
I read it too. He said he was gonna give Carp some of Cust’s at bats, just ’cause he wanted Peguero, Halman, and Carp to all get at bats.
If I remember correctly the quote was actually that he was gonna give Carp “3 or 4″ starts a week at DH.
Evidently Wedge hasn’t bought into the “we’re contenders” idea.
I don’t mind, ’cause I’m all about the ‘long term’ versus winning the West to lose horribly in the playoffs.
But still, you’d think the manager would ride the horses got him here until it clearly wasn’t working.
I think the biggest story here is that Ichiro is in the line-up. Everyone is up in arms about who ISN’T in there, but if we were going to give someone a day off (or possibly a deserved benching) it should be Ichiro. I know this is a vast minority opinion, but I just wish we would’ve traded the guy before giving him that mega-contract. He hasn’t produced equal to that money in a long time. I have a hard time paying a guy $18 million a year to hit 225 singles a year, draw very few walks, and have a small run production count. His value has completely diminished where as a couple years back, we could’ve fetched some serious young talent at the trade deadline.
I think this is another example of a manager sacrificing roster maximization for a “big picture” reason.
I assume the rationale goes along the lines of giving your veterans a day off on a day when a victory isn’t assured, saving them from having to face Verlander, while also putting the youngsters in a pressure situation and “testing their metal”.
I’m sure the Mariners would flatly deny that they are in any way punting a potential victory for the sake of roster/personnel management, but this is clearly the case, and how you feel about it probably hinges on how you feel about the Mariners chances to compete this year as a whole.
If you think it’s a valuable tool in assessing your rookies and giving your veterans a day off in a rebuilding year, you probably won’t object. If you think it’s a teams job to field the best possible team and win at all costs, then you’ll be less then pleased.
Quoting myself:
“But still, you’d think the manager would ride the horses got him here until it clearly wasn’t working.”
I should have included: (Figgins not withstanding.)
He didn’t. The “correlation = causation” seems to be that when Wedge called out his “veterans” for not performing and then Carp is called up and has now twice replaced Cust, this equates to “Wedge hates Cust”.
I don’t know whether that’s true or if they just want to give Carp his at bats to see if he’s actually worth half the shit he was in Tacoma. Cust has been performing fine for THIS Mariners squad, but he’s not been performing fine overall for a DH. I think we’re losing sight of perspective here. Cust sucks. He’s just the prettiest of the ugly children. If Carp hits better than he does, then fuck Cust right up a river. I wont shed two tears about it.
And, no, I have nothing against Cust. I just want to see improvements made to the team. I do not care where. He is not our future, just like Bradley wasn’t our future and just like Langerhans wasn’t our future. Carp may not be our future either, but we’re going to have to find that out the hard way aren’t we?
As for the rest, mountain out of a molehill. Dave’s overreacting. Smoak probably could use a day off. It’s not like Wedge purposely went out and axed Cust and Smoak because he wanted to put out a piss poor lineup. If Smoak needed a day off, Smoak needed a day off. Since he’s a switch hitter, who cares when it happens? Also, Halman should get more playing time for the same reason as Carp above. He’s not just going to be Guti’s backup the whole time.
I *DO* find it interesting that Carp has replaced Cust now two days in a row. I do not think it is just an anti-walk bias. I know he wants his players to be more aggressive, yada yada, but that doesn’t mean he’s nuking Cust for that.
Thank you. I have no particular problem with that rationale – but I was worried this might be related to his disdain for the walk.
Looking at this game yesterday, and seeing that Verlander was the starter, I thought, well, at least we can roll out 7 left handed hitters and try to squeeze out a couple runs somehow, get his pitch count up and get to the bullpen by the 7th and maybe have a decent shot at winning. So Wedge does basically the opposite of that – put as many of your right handed hitters in as possible. Huh? This makes absolutely no sense. How about this, Eric:
Ichiro RF
Rodriguez SS
Smoak 1B
Kennedy 2B
Olivo C
Cust DH
Gutierrez CF
Carp LF
Figgins 3B
Call me crazy, but I think this lineup just might have a bit better shot against one of the toughest RH pitchers in baseball than that thing you’re rolling out there.
Figgins is not in the lineup. Most other sins can be forgiven, at least for a night.
There’s no Peguero in here today. That at least must make some people happy.
Wouldn’t the Tigers series have been a good time to call up St. Ackley of Tacoma? Certainly not to start him against Verlander, but… is he coming up next week at home, perhaps?
Adam-
I’d be inclined to agree, but if that was the case you’d think Ichiro would get the day off too, and we could go with an outfield of Halman, Guty, Peguero…
(Although, Ichiro does have playing streak currently I think 3rd longest in the league… So maybe you’re right.)
I would hope he’d be smarter with that. The “taking a walk” versus “getting a hit” meme is really a silly argument based on a false choice – the kind of pitches that get taken for walks are generally not good ones to swing at for hits.
I’ve assumed his “be more aggressive” mantra was more aimed at the guys that were watching third strikes too often – I’m not sure I’m totally on board with that either, given where some of those “strikes” have been; but I can at least grasp the thinking behind it.
I’m willing to give Wedge a lot of leeway for a single lineup in a single game. Maximizing each night’s lineup may be a measurable means of judging a manager, but I don’t think it’s actually an important part of the evaluation. Managing this particular team can’t be easy, and keeping from the “veterans aren’t happy because kids are getting at-bats” mode of 2008 may be far more important than Jack Cust starting this game.
We have some decent pinch hitters on the bench if we can get Verlander out of the game, too.
“He’s shown that he has a very low opinion of the value of a walk”
Lucky Mariners.
I’d actually give Ichiro the day off against Verlander, since he seems frustrated with his own approach lately.
And throw lots of lefties out there… And hell, if you want to experiment, give Ichiro the day off and see if Figgins gives a shit if you let hi leadoff for a day…
Figgins 3B
Ryan SS
Smoak 1B
Olivo C
Cust DH
Guty CF
Peguero LF
Carp RF
Kennedy 2B
(Wow, actually, writing that was kinda cool, there’s a hole string of guys who can thump when you run that order out there… Figuring out how to order 6-9 is actually kinda of difficult… Sort of dares a guy to see how many breaking balls he can throw for strikes!)
I always look at “be more aggressive” as “hit the pitch you know you can hit instead of letting it go by.” Note this doesn’t mean “hit the pitch you THINK you can hit”. I mean, Olivo thinks he can hit a lot of shit and he can’t. He took an up and in fastball last night and pulled it down the line for a double. Would I advise he do that again? No.
But belt high fastballs that are just off the plate can still be reached and hit the other way by any competent hitter. And since these get called strikes against left handers an unacceptable number of times by umpires, take a shot. If you’re down 2 strikes anyway, worst that can happen is you make an out. Maybe two if circumstances are right.
“Well after looking at Cust Vs Verlander
20ab 12K/1BB 4Hits 1HR
Verlander owns him.
At least that might be a reason”
For any pro manager that’s a reason.
I’m still convinced “be more aggressive” was solely aimed at Saunders and Cust when they were both struggling… And both taking a nap, or thinking about their grocery lists, while strikes one and two streamed past, down the center of the plate.
You don’t like Carp, we get it. And believe me I’m not a Carp fanboy either. But, just because YOU don’t think he’ll be a good major leager doesn’t make it so. Carp has earned the right to get another look, he’s shown improvement and been hitting lights out at the highest level of the minors. And now we’ll see if he can do anything at the big league level. And if he’s going to play at this level than he’s going to have to hit against pitchers like Verlander…you can’t protect guys forever. Same goes with the other guys in the lineup, maybe Wedge just wants to see if these “kids” can step up their game against one of the best pitchers in baseball.
You’re nuts if you don’t think part of that money is back pay for when he was WAY outperforming his contract.
Well, at least Figgins’ two-gamer won’t end tonight.
You don’t banish Mozart to Italy because he’s been coming up with good operettas instead of the epic symphony in a season.
When you put up 200 hits+ in a season year after year- with a better than average amount of stolen base- your own personal value doesn’t “diminish to nothing”. Holding Ichiro accountable for the run production hitting behind him is like blaming a rooster for a family of farmers not waking up- when in fact he was at full volume- and saying he should’ve been louder.
As for losing nay opportunity to trade Ichiro!, that opportunity never truly existed.
I’ve said it before, will say it again: Ichiro will be traded only if he himself requests it. He’s not a rank-and-file player, he’s an icon with a unique skill-set (have you ever heard any prospect described as “being like Ichiro”?) and is making history with his career.
He means far more to Seattle than what he could mean anywhere else, intrinsically. And I don’t mean in attendance, or other marketing wares.
I mean as a ballplayer that we’ll be telling our grand-kids about, that we were privileged to see.
I think most people are referring to Drayer’s tweet, which said that Carp and Peguero would play “semi-regularly”, while Cust would “lose some starts”. It’s not entirely clear if she’s extrapolating but it reads to me like she’s at least paraphrasing Wedge.
This seemed like a huge over reaction. Although we are having fun talking playoffs I think deep down we all know that the goal is to simply be a solid team for an entire season. Smoak needed a chance to rest and regroup and not making him face Verlander is a perfect opportunity for him to just have a good day off. Carp is hot and although I don’t mind having Cust in the lineup, I’m not delusional enough to think that Cust is a legit MLB DH right now. I would rather see Halman get a chance to turn on one of Verlanders fastballs, Carp try and keep his hotstreak going and some of the other young guys showing what they can do. I know this lineup isn’t great but really our regular lineup isn’t great, or even good on a regular basis.
Whoops, trying to work and post comments at the same time… Forgot to write: “Except in Peguero’s case, where he just has to get them started in the general direction of home plate.”
(I tease, he’s actually been a helluva lot better at pitch selection the past few days– still not great, but showing improvement… Hell, he walked yesterday! How weird was that?)
Honestly, I have no idea what I’d do in Wedge’s shoes in so many cases. WTF do you do with Ichiro? This could get trickier than Griffey (except in this case we assume Ichiro will bounce back one day). I’d be hesitant to bench Ichiro, but if he doesn’t turn it around soon, he can’t keep leading off for us. Last couple games he’s looked okay, fingers crossed. Figgins is too expensive to cut. I guess the obvious choice is to platoon him, but I wouldn’t bench him completely. The way this ownerships spends, Figgins has to produce or we’re hamstrung Silva-style til 2014. Hate on Peguero all you want, he’s had a great week. I wouldn’t have high hopes for him, but you gotta give him a chance til he cools off. Cust hasn’t had the power we hoped for, but you couldn’t complain about his productivity in May. Not to mention what happens when Ackley is brought up (ASAP please!). So I don’t envy Wedge’s task of making lineups every day. We need to get some good trade offers badly. What a weird season.
Weirdest of all, Miguel Olivo has been carrying this offense recently.
I was actually referring to a (says quietly under his breath) Geoff Baker article in the paper… He interviewed Wedge about how he was gonna use Carp.
Found the online link:
Wedge Plans to Play Carp and Peguero Together When Possible
The heart of it:
“”I feel like, if we can get them in there three or four times a week, it’s worth having them up here because you’re going to get a lot out of them,” Wedge said.
“It’s a nice way to break them in. It’s a nice way to break them in without over-exposing them. By getting them consistent work. We’ll try to get Greg (Halman) in there as much as we can, too. We’ll open up some DH at-bats for them, too, from time to time so that we can make that happen.”
I misremembered– he’s not gonna start Carp 3-4 days at DH, just wants the young guys to get 3-4 starts a week…
Yeah, there’s that, too. (Edit: and the above Baker interview post)
Unlike Bradley / Langerhans, I don’t think Jack Z is going to do anything dramatic and cut Cust. I think they’ll let Carp sink or swim and if he doesn’t, Cust is back in regularly. If Wedge really wanted to kick Cust to the curb, he’d have been platooning Peguero / Wilson there instead of in left. That Wilson didn’t get many opportunities over Cust at DH either should speak volumes to how Wedge really feels about Cust vs. an unproven minor leaguer. Don’t get me wrong, maybe Wedge just knew Wilson sucked and didn’t care to give him at bats, but it doesn’t follow along with the pattern of Peguero and Carp usage we’re seeing now.
Basically, Wedge has had his opportunity and his players to muscle Cust out of the lineup and hasn’t. He has given Cust days off against tough left handers, and has used that position to give Ichiro a rest, but overall he hasn’t been abusive of Cust’s playing time. Until now. It is possible that something has changed in his thought process, but I’m not sure I buy it. The most obvious and direct cause of the Carp vs. Cust playing time seems to be more related to Carp than Cust.
I’m predicting something right now- Ackley gets the call before the first home game with the Angels on the 13th.
I think they’re just waiting for a home crowd to see him first. Why it matters, I have no real idea. A lot of us Mariner fans tune in to the road games. But that’s what I think is going to happen.
At this point, I’m not going to accept any predictions about Ackley’s arrival in the majors unless that prediction is “I predict that he’ll be up sometime between now and never.” Because I’m tired of speculation. I’ve been hurt too many times so I’ll believe it when I see it.
I was personally hoping for this line-up today:
Ichiro RF
Ryan SS
Smoak 1B
Cust DH
Kennedy 2B
Olivo C
Carp LF
Halman CF
Figgins 3B
1. Maybe reading too much into one night’s line-up. But yes
2. Wedge is an old school, mustachioed, gung-ho manager. I think that’s right from everything we’ve seen. He might motivate better than some, but his use of players and old-school strategies will drive you nuts sometimes.
TypicalIdiot-
In the Baker story Wedge pretty much admits it’s a tough thing to do to Cust, but I think given Carp and Peguero’s limited defensive skills, there was no real choice but to take some of Jack’s at bats away.
“Cust’s still going to play, but I’m going to open up some DH at-bats for them, too,” Wedge said. “We’ll continue to try to get creative. If we feel that we’ve got to switch some things up, then we’ll do that. We’re about 2 1/2 months in. My responsibility is to the team and the organization but also to each and every player, too.
“And sometimes that could be a fine line. Because you’re looking at two (spots) today but you’re also looking at two tomorrow.”
Two, meaning two places to play the young guys.”
Yes, you can. It’s a reflection of hitting with runners in scoring position and ability to convert runners on third base with less than two outs into runs.
I’ve always been hard on Ichiro and I just think he’s vastly over-rated. Between the individualism, the lack of enthusiasm you have a guy that doesn’t give himself up too often and (to me) is just here to collect his 200 hits and go home. I’ve never understood why we let him swing away with runners on first and 2nd with nobody out. What is he going to do? Get an infield single? He’s not a threat to drive the ball or produce runs. He hasn’t been in a long time.
I’m inclined to give Wedge the benefit of the doubt regarding the lineup.
You got to remember that many of us were initially loudly against running Kennedy out there (or even being on the roster) in the first place, but Wedge did so, and Kennedy has unexpectedly turned out to be one of our best offensive hitters.
A lot of people were also against batting Olivo in the middle of the order. And again, Wedge did so and he has been unexpectedly productive.
(After writing the things below, I noticed that SonOfZavaras expressed it much more eloquently).
And I like that Wedge sticks with Ichiro although someone was complaining about a “225 singles a year” hitter who was worth little run production (I should have ignored the poster).
Ichiro has a track record of success for 10 straight years. He is a player the Mariners need to count on to produce down the line. And I think he is not the kind of caliber player (nor type of player with bad focus/work ethic/attitude) that you sit down for a raw rookie to send some kind of message. You send Ichiro out there until he undoubtedly works out of his funk and starts hitting like normal again.
All in all, I give Wedge the benefit of the doubt. I think Wedge should get a lot of credit that this team is unexpectedly 2 games above .500 and contending.
Ichiro might be somewhat overrated as a hitter by the batting average crowd, but don’t forget his good defense and baserunning also. He’s been worth what the M’s paid him until this season based on his WAR every year.
Although, since defense is undervalued by the market, perhaps he could’ve been had for a lesser price, even though he technically wasn’t overpaid. Anyway, I would agree he needs a massive pay cut for his next contract if he keeps his bad play up.
If Wedge tries to bring in Julio Mateo to get a ground ball out…
If Smoak is going to sit, why not play Carp at 1B so either Cust or Peguero can DH? Having Wilson in the game, especially against a very tough righty, doesn’t really make sense to me.
I also am impressed by Wedge’s use of the bullpen.
Who would have imagined that Pauley would turn out to be a lock-down 8th inning type guy?
And I confess that when League was in his terrible funk, I thought sitting him down and sending him out for a couple of easy situations would be a good idea. I realise now it was a completely wrong idea.
Wedge didn’t deviate from sticking with him for closing games and they mixed up his pitches more and League has functioned great again.
Ichiro will get out of this funk. It looks a little to me like he’s having his “adjusting” period he typically has in April, where he looks terrible and every year someone would be loudly calling out that Ichiro’s finished, blah, blah. I think he will get out of it like he usually does, and erupt in hits, but this will of course be achieved not by sitting him down.
I don’t under value defense at all. But having a good glove doesn’t make you the big bucks, if it did, Guti would have a top 5 salary.
As for base running, yes, he’s a very good base stealer and I love that. But I wouldn’t say he’s a smart base runner. I have no numbers for my argument here, but I do watch the games nightly and I can count numerous times this year alone where he has ran himself into an out by trying to take third on a ground ball in front of him.
It’s easy for an anti-Ichiro protagonist to pick on him this year, but I just don’t think he’s ever been as good as 99% of Mariners fans think he is.
Ichiro’s 2011 stats:
Batting average with bases empty: .249
Batting average with men on base: .270
Batting average with men in scoring position: .316
I’m guessing you didn’t bother to look anything up.
That lineup could be the worst I have ever seen. No power, no walks, and very young–Verlander must be ecstatic to pitch tonight.
Wait, what did Ryan just do? XFD
With the exception of THIS year, Ichiro’s wOBA (as per FanGraphs) has been significantly above the major-league average. And I’m talking over a ten-year period.
Track record, baby. It’s there by any analysis. So, YEAH. I let him swing away, whenever he wants. Because the numbers say that he’s better at getting a hit- infield, gork, flare, screaming dart- than 99% of hitters that’ve ever lived.
Runners advance on base hits. It’s BETTER to get a base hit. It isn’t always a necessary strategy to “give yourself up” to play “winning baseball”. Not when you’re in Ichiro’s league as a hitter.
I’d fault Ichiro for not giving himself a chance to get a usually more productive event- a base hit- if he decided to drop a bunt against a pitcher that the numbers might say that he owns, historically.
FOR PERSPECTIVE: Ichiro’s in the worst year of his career, and he’s already been intentionally walked six times this season- in situations where if he gets a hit, ballgame’s odds of being a loss for the other team go up dramatically.
I mean, does that sound like too much respect to some overrated schlub? He gets that because managers know that he’s gotten the hit when his team needed it so many times. They can’t count on Ichiro to get himself out. The odds aren’t with them.
I’m guessing you don’t bother looking beyond the stats at all. A hitter is protected with runners in scoring position. Generally get more pitches to hit, in some cases fly outs don’t count against the average; obviously the average is going to be higher.
When the play is over players usually call for time and the umps put up their hands to signal that the ball is dead and everyone just stay at the base…no one did that when Ryan got on first and no one was at second…so he obliged and took second since the ball was still “live”.
Where does Ackley bat when he comes up? Also, didn’t Wedge say he was gonna try hard to fight the urge to move Smoaks outta the #5 spot? Then like 3 days later….he moved him to the everyday #3?
Shoulda faught a little harder Eric!
Sims:”This is a guy who won’t walk a lot of people.”
Jinx.
I believe when Wedge was a senior in college he lead the NCAA in walks and total bases. I think the guy understands the importance of a walk. He’s no dummy. One questionable lineup doesnt make Wedge incapable of understanding hitters anymore than one game of Peguero hitting 2 home runs means he is going to lead the league in dingers.
Sims complaining about the plane ride last night…working at dispatch I’m amazed they even managed to take off from Chicago last night. Surely nobody was getting in this morning…
No, we don’t look beyond the stats here. That’s because anything else isn’t a basis for a rational analysis.
Even if the probability of a batter getting a fastball goes way up with runners in scoring position- as you allude to, and correctly- it still has to be hit. But it’s not a foregone conclusion, in any event. The idea that a hitter is “protected” by the higher probability doesn’t quite fly.
“Rookie” mistake Fish
Fister at 94 MPH?? Gotta be a fast gun.
2011 Seattle Mariners, as a team:
Batting average with bases empty: .225
Batting average with men on base: .234
Batting average with men in scoring position: .221
These things are quite easy to look up.
Just for fun, here are the Yankee team splits in those three situations:
Yankees: .250 / .254 / .249
Nope, no “protection” apparent there either.
DJ-
I’m pretty sure, the way they’ve dealt with the youth movement, Ackley starts low in the lineup, and that’s IF he’s gonna play regularly…
The other strategy might be to have him sit a couple days to get acclimated, maybe get him a pinch hit opportunity or two… and then in the right matchup start him and bat him 2nd.
I think NOT playing him the first day he comes up would be ideal… People are gonna be SO anxious to see him that if he has just an ordinary day (say, 1-4 with a single and K) he’ll feel like he disappointed folks, on top of being nervous in general about his first MLB at bats.
That’s why personally I like the idea to pinch hit/run him a couple times, and then give him a start in the 3rd or 4th game after he comes up. THEN, if he looks comfortable, throw him out there and see how he does. That way he doesn’t hit the grill when it’s quite as sizzling hot.
How about Ichiro’s career stats:
Bases empty: .329
Men on base: .320
Men in scoring position: .323
How about this stat?
Ichiro hits to 2b over last 2 AB = 1.000
Westy-
I knew that was an easy comment to debunk (“protected batter” with RISP), but I’m glad you threw in the Yankee’s splits too, ’cause I was remembering how at the beginning of the year we were on pace to break the all-time record for stranding guys in scoring position (which I’m pretty sure meant our BA with RISP was unusually awful at the time).
Between 2001 and 2010, only Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriquez produced more WAR than Ichiro. During that span, Ichiro average 5 WAR/season (worth $22.5M/yr at today’s rates).
It is easy for some fans who have always ground an axe against Ichiro over the last decade to finally call scoreboard after the first 60 games into the 11th season of Ichiro’s hall of fame career, but I just think you’re a dumb ass.
Verlander’s going to be a beast today. Those fastballs are right where he wants them.
Part of me hopes Ichiro doesn’t get 200 hits, realizes his decline in play, and either goes back to Japan to play for a few years or retires. We could use that $18 mil for a REAL DH…and Ichiro can go out before he really declines.
mlathrop-
Happy now? You broke his perfect streak by jinxing him! (I kid)
Most of those times, he got it because Figgins was “hitting” behind him.
Between 2001 and 2010, only Albert Pujols and
When you look at all those names at the top of the salary list, one name stands out and it’s Ichiro. He doesn’t hit the ball out of the ball park and he doesn’t drive in runs. He’s a table setter for a team that has never had anyone to consistently drive him in. Therefore, he’s over-rated. And I think you’re a dumbass homer.
True, I should’ve added that. It would’ve reinforced the notion that an opposing manager’s playing the much smarter odds.
FelixisKing if we follow your line of thinking, Felix did not deserve the little award he got last year. Other pitchers won more games than he did. It does not matter how many runs the team scored for him, he still gave up more runs than the team scored and lost the game. So he was overated. Your thinking holds no water. Ichiro is one of the best hitters in the league, because he does not hit homeruns means nothing. It is like saying a pitcher who wins 20+ games is not good because he does not strike a lot of guys out. I get pissed at times when he swings at ball four, but you have to look at the body of work.
Sigh. I give up. Ichiro does what he does, and the mediocrity around him for the vast expanse of his career doesn’t reduce his value in doing that.
The scary thing is, you see a relation here.
Alex: 10 yr/$275M (his first FA contract was 10yr/$252M)
Albert: 7 yr/$100M and will likely ask for a bigger contract this fall.
Ichiro: has been under contract with the Ms for 12 yr @ a total commitment of $148M
Ichiro jumps out as a bargain from the salary list (the Ms have only paid him $104M for his 53 WAR)…in other words, the Ms have paid him less than half the current going rate.
I think your arguments epitomize the intellectual flatulence of a dumbass.
I never understand this. Not trying to be snarky at all, but I just don’t understand the folks who say this. HOW do you overvalue a leadoff hitter who leads the league in hits each year, has won a Gold Glove every year he’s played, has been in the vote for MVP every year except 1 (winning an MVP once), averages 39 steals per season, has a career .328 batting avg (NEVER finishing a season below .300), and other than starting the 2009 season on the IR, has played at least 157 games every year in the league (playing all but 16 games over those 9 seasons).
How many guys you think can do that?
I don’t think Ichiro is perfect, but few have been better the past 10 years, year in and year out, consistently, without a major injury.
The guy is a rock. Is it at his peak right now? No. But that doesn’t change everything he has done, and continues to do (he’s 37 and hasn’t missed a game since the beginning of the 2009 season!)
Auggey-
(had to hop in here)
Don’t forget, Felix will never be as valuable as Ichiro either… He only plays 1 out of every 5 games, and usually doesn’t even play the whole nine innings.
He’s a freakin’ slacker! Totally overpaid, when other guys are giving the team 162 games a year!
(Granted, he does have more power than Ichiro at the plate!) *laugh*
Did anyone realize we are only 99 games to seeing the M’s in the playoffs in October?
Halman hitting the breaking ball <_<
That’d be nice, but I don’t see it happening.
I forgot about that part. If he was really that good he would play 3rd when he is not pitching, or maybe LF. then we could get a few more HR’s out of him.
That could change by Sunday.
JR-
It probably SHOULD change by Sunday… My first post today I suggested they should have sat Ichiro against Verlander, give him a respite from his struggles for a day.
Still impressive though (3rd longest current streak in the majors).
I was going to say we need a passed ball to score, LOL
That was a supremely Mariners-esque run.
Ready to Play.
Greg Halman – curious whether he is doing something remarkable. And no I don’t mean the .887 batting average although it may be linked …. thinking has a 200K guy suddenly become a contact hitter. Sure looking like it from early returns, saw him play a couple of times in Phoenix this spring as well…well he seemed like a changed hitter. Where has the 40 homers but you get 200k’s gone but now I’m an .887 speed guy – curious and curious to me – can a leopard change his spots.
I thought Guti was going to make the chase-down of the year there.
Sit down, idiot in the red shirt.
Avila with two triples already? I can’t remember the last time anybody had two triples in a game, much less a catcher…wow!
Wow, Game Over…
Ichiro, enough fooling around already. Pick it up!
Westy, it’s time to take one for the team. You were long ago designated (informally) as the “King of Reverse Mojo.” Subsequently, you were re-delegated as only a “Prince” within the land of innaccurate prognostication … because of many others having supplanted you in gloriously spectacular fashion which you will never be able to trump.
Please work your magic, buddy. It is time. Even if it is solicited, it can still work. It certainly cannot hurt to try.
I would have asked sooner, but I have been busy with both buying and selling a home, welcoming a granchild to the world and, well, you get the picture.
Please, Westy – I implore you …
WTF?
We’re up 1-0, I’m stoked, I go do 15 minutes of work, and now THIS?!?!
*sigh*
(Westy- I suggest… “Guty’ll never hit a 4 run homer with only 1 guy on…” If THAT works, you regain your crown!)
*sigh (again)*
You’re NOT even trying, Westy… Did you fall asleep?
I like what you said here. Still laughing about it too. I need a guy like you – where I work – on the payroll. Effectively to the point. No room for ambiguity. Ready for a battle. I like it! Please send in a resume.
I would have to agree with you on this and I would certainly review it with all the Kings Horses and all the Kings Men, but Westy’s powers are best concentrated on Ichiro specifically.
Westy, still imploring. You need to help get him going.
Game on!
Anyone else notice Ichiro can’t hit a baseball anymore since they made him hit all that weird stuff in that commercial?
(I kid)
Every time I watch that “he can hit anything…” commercial…. my first thought is “not anymore….”
Be careful what you ask for Mike–
(here comes that resume)
“Name: Milton Bradley”
Sorry, but I’m just not as enamored with Cust as some others here. We should start a pool on what date he finally passes Ryan Langerhans’ 2011 HR total. He’s an aging veteran on the decline who doesn’t hit HRs, doesn’t drive runs in, and has no future with the team. I have no problem at all with giving Carp some of his ABs to see what he can do. Maybe it’ll turn out that he doesn’t have a future with the team either, but let’s find out.
I liked how Fish was able to take that the other way. Unfortunately it was an out. Awwww, there’s Halman’s first K of the year.
I would be willing to consider anybody who shows the ability to be able to fog a mirror – at this point – in comparison to the routine abilities demonstrated by some of the people where I work.
However, you do bring up a good point “MrZ”. Perhaps the screening criteria could be reviewed and refreshed.
It seems as though Ichiro’s leg raise is a bit more pronounced, a bit longer (in duration) and a bit further out in lean (thus the topping of many a baseball without squaring many up). Maybe it is just my imagination. Perhaps this is a recent “adjustment” he has made. Perhaps it is the reason for his issues.
Or, perhaps … none of the above.
Phook – I don’t know.
Has anybody else noticed a slight tweak in his load and stride?
Westy !!!!!!!!
I’m starting to panic about Ichiro. He looks bad.
Golden Sombrero!!
msfanmike, I agree that his batting stance looks different. Well it is indeed extremely painful to view now but I hope it pays off later.
And finally, Verlander comes out of the game.
But it’s not Olivo’s day either. *sigh*
…aaaaand tonight’s outcome came as little surprise.
I might have agreed a year ago (or six months ago or three months ago) that Carp is no improvement over Cust, but now I think he might be. He lost 25 pounds over the winter, got himself in great shape, gained some speed, and he’s gotten comfortable in the outfield. On top of all that, he combined his high batting average from 2009 with his better power from 2010 into one complete package in 2011, and he’s just turning 25 this month. It looks to me like we are seeing a player come into his prime…a bit ahead of time.
Let’s remember, there’s a reason young players often don’t perform as well at 22-23-and-24 as they do at 25-26-27-28. Some learn and improve, others don’t. Looks like Mike Carp has learned and matured to me. Let’s see how it plays out.
I don’t think we have to worry that Wedge doesn’t like the walk. He managed in Cleveland from 2002-2009, over that span the Indians had a 8.8 BB%, which ranked 4th behind the Red Sox, Yankees and A’s. So I don’t think he does discourage walks, even if he doesn’t emphasize as much as some managers. The Indians were 5th in ISO during that time too, so its not like he had to choose one or the other though. Walks and ISO are complimentary skills for good players, not opposites the way Baker seems to think, but I will allow that shitty players sometimes have to choose what to concentrate on. I seem to remember players like Barry Bonds could actually do both quite well.
One other thing I noticed looking at the 2002-2009 team stats was the Yankees had by far the worse defense in baseball over that span, -467 runs, the Mariners had by far the best defense with +244 runs, Ichiro and Beltre were 145 runs of that. I miss Beltre.
This article is an example of what Zduriencik once said that this site’s blind spot is the human element. Playing these kids sends a positive message to all the organization’s players. It’s about more than these three questionable big leaguers.
Carp has been smashing the ball in AAA. Just like Wilson and Peguero were earlier. The M’s are giving them a fair crack in the bigs. Maybe the team believes Peguero is never going to be a major leaguer, and/or Carp is a bench player in the NL. But they were slugging in Tacoma, so Zduriencik and Wedge have to play them in Seattle.
This shows everybody in the system that if they play well in Tacoma, they will play in Seattle. It’s a great message to every kid on the farm, an organizational plan to encourage hard work and better performance.
Halman, Peguero and Carp have played well enough in Tacoma to deserve a decent shot in Seattle. This team is still rebuilding. Be happy that the club is sticking it to the youth movement and the long-term plan despite their place in the standings.
Like how Mike Wilson played well in Tacoma and got called up…..
…only to play like 4 times a month.
Disagree on Cust, Dave. Yes he is great at working the count and taking walks but when we have no one to drive in runs behind him then he needs to be the one driving in runs. Notice how much he get’s on base yet he has barely scored this year. He is getting paid to drive in runs as long as he is in the 4 spot and it’s not happening. If you want to use his on base skills then put him in the 2 hole.
Nooooo…. I’m saying a guy that hits .350, but they are all 95% singles and 50 of those hits are infield hits that only advance runners one base, than he reall isn’t super value, certainly not 18 freakin million valuable.
He’s lucky he got that, and I am guessing that he is eternally grateful that he did. He’s still on the 40-man, he got 3 hits for Tacoma last night, including a HR, and they can bring him back when rosters expand in September.
Wilson was surplus once Halman arrived. Halman is standing in there far better than I expected him to, so far. He isn’t overswinging, or hacking at pure shit, as much as he was at Tacoma, or lunging into pitches like he used to do. He got a hit off Verlander’s slider, and the high fastballs he whiffed on were pitches he should be swinging at anyway.
Anyone who can’t see how far ahead in approach Halman is compared to Peguero isn’t paying attention. At least for now, Halman belongs here. Peguero doesn’t. Peguero needs the full season in AAA that Halman has had already.
2001-2010 total run production (runs+rbi)
Albert Pujols – 2416 total runs produced
Alex Rodriguez – 2366 total runs produced
Ichiro Suzuki – 1605 total runs produced
No one is arguing that he hasn’t been a very good leadoff hitter for a decade for this club. I’m simply arguing that he makes about double his worth, and deserves nowhere near the recognition he has received because he hits a lot of irrelevant singles that really don’t make an impact on the game. The difference between us and the Yankees is we have to string together 3 hits in an inning to score a run and Ichiro epitomizes that philosiphy. When you’re facing a stud like Verlander, you only get a couple of chances to touch him up every game. Singles will not beat a guy like that.
That WAR number is fun to talk about, but last time I checked, it doesn’t get you into the post-season.
Another thing I want to talk about is his selfish attitude. It was on display last night when he struck out on a ball in the dirt and the catcher had a tough time locating it. Olivo did this two nights ago and ran his ass off to first. Ichiro barely flinched and got maybe 5 steps up the line. How many superstars in sports write their own ticket the way Ichiro does? He has his own rules, his own game that nobody else gets to play. He thinks he’s above the team and I’m sick of manager’s allowing him to be. I hope Wedge sits him down to send a message and get better production from the leadoff spot.
I love the Mariners as much as you guys all do. I watch them every night and have done so since I was a little kid. Ken Griffey Jr. is my relegion and the ’95 and ’97 teams are two I will never forget. I just have a polarizing view of Ichiro. I hope that doesn’t mean we can’t all be respectful of one another. I’m just here to talk about my M’s.
I think you should post an article explaining why WAR is not a good measure of player value. You obviously do not think it is useful, so for any of us to take you seriously, you are going to have to explain why. Show your math.
Dude, seriously? That is how you evaluate players? By using counting measures of things that are predominately out of their control?
Do some reading, come back when you have cogent arguments so you don’t embarass yourself futher.
So, did you check and see if the post season teams had the lowest WAR? What exactly did you check?
When I evaluate run production, yes, typically runs and rbi tend to be what I look at.
WAR is a ficticous stat. Playing in October is substansial in the fact that it’s REAL.
With all due respect, Dave, you seriously don’t think Wedge knows that Cust and Smoak are two of his best hitters against right-handers? It seems pretty narrow-minded to me to assume that his decision to sit them is because of his ignorance of their platoon splits. I understand this is a stats-driven blog, and it’s fine to complain that he is sitting them regardless of their stats against right-handers, but to jump to the conclusion that he may be a bad manager because he is ignoring those statistics, and to disregard as irrelevant to the team’s success any other notion about why he might be sitting them comes across as a lazy application of statistical analysis as the be-all end-all factor in managing a baseball club to me.
Why WAR is silly. I agree with this article.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/469627-mlb-player-power-rankings-going-to-war-on-war-and-other-geeky-stats
Yeah, sounds like a great measure. :rolleyes:
Sorry Dave, but I’m not experiencing the same outrage you are over this one lineup. I have opinions that differ from you, MsFanMike has opinions that differ from either of us, and Eric Wedge has his own opinions that differ from any of us. We have no idea what JZ and him talk about behind closed doors. Wedge has pressed all the right buttons for me this year. He get the benefit of the doubt from me for quite a while before I’d start to questions his decision ability.
Did you like the squeeze btw?
Hmmmmmm…anyone else beginning to think that the “Seattle Mariners blog for analysis, commentary, and Ichiro! admiration” might not be the site for FELIXisKING?
Perhaps there is a site where pitchers are only evaluated by Wins and ERA…where hitters are only evaluated by BA, RBI and Runs…where stats are ignored in favor of gut feelings and recognizing “the human element”…where hitters can be identified at being “clutch”…and where calling Ichiro! selfish gets you cheers from the other participants.
USS Mariner, though, is pretty much the opposite of that…unabashedly and unashamedly so. Here is where geeky stats rule. Here is where confirmation bias and small sample sizes are identified and eradicated. Here is where we acknowledge the true value of players against those who are overrated by the old, unscientific way of valuing players.
It is a particular viewpoint that is, by and large, shared by those who participate in the comments here.
Not trying to be the internet police here, but there might not be much point in banging your head against the wall here.
FELIXisKING – Not to put words in his mouth, but I believe Paul was asking for evidence that the pieces and calculations that go into WAR are not being used correctly, or are being too heavily valued, or are otherwise not as good as whatever stats you think represent a player’s worth (e.g. AVG, HR, OPS, RBI, ERA, WHIP, whatever).
I have my own problems with some of the circular arguments that have come up here from time to time – i.e. you can only disprove our assertions by using the exact same math and definitions we used – but to be fair, you’re not answering Paul’s question at all.
Showing that another writer subjectively doesn’t like, understand or agree with WAR is not the same as showing the mathematical reasons why the stat is flawed. Another person being dismissive of something isn’t providing a counterargument. It’s just finding another guy to go “yeah! yeah, man. what he said.”
Hey pgreyy,
I think it can be a big tent. Even after hanging around the site for a number of years, I still think some players are better clutch hitters than others (maybe it has to do with breathing?). I suggested a few years back a way to evaluate that statistically; typically and expectedly, I got shouted down by the mob, but that doesn’t mean I still don’t believe it. I still love hanging out here and like to think that once in a while I make a relevant comment.
Isn’t the reality that no matter what the statistics show, there is always going to be a human element to the game that at least has to be considered? You may scoff at the notion of “chemistry,” but is it mere coincidence that just about the day the M’s jettisoned Milton Bradley they went on their hot streak? You may (and you are entitled to) say no, but I say maybe not. Maybe the enthusiasm with which Peguero plays the game, an immeasurable trait, has a measurable outcome — a better winning percentage.
Sure, statistics are great and I wouldn’t hang out here if I didn’t put a lot of faith in them. But I remember when I was a kid I developed a pure stat-driven model (rudimentary, yes) to measure the value of the Sonics players. A combination of points per minute, assists per minute, rebounds per minute, steals per minute, etc. Every time I did this, John Brisker would end up as the most valuable Sonic. But no one believed that he was, in real life. From all accounts, he was a difficult personality and had a hard time getting along with his teammates. I.e., “the human element”.
Anyway, long story short, instead of making a guy feel stupid for believing what he believes, doesn’t it make more sense to try to educate him? People who have different viewpoints sometimes bring a lot to the table. I’m not trying to stir up a hornet’s nest here, just trying to see it from the other point of view.
That’s totally understandable. A friend told me about this site as having really good Mariners content and since I haven’t been able to find an extremely active, quality messageboard, I saw that this place also had a comments section and thought I’d give it a whirl.
I appreciate the blunt yet kind nature of this post. While I still am not a fan of Ichiro the individual, I ALWAYS root for the team and that means every time he comes to the plate, I’m hoping he succeeds.
Let’s wash our hands of this first impression (which I basically butchered) and start a new, yeah?
We can talk about Felix. There’s a guy I will defend as the best the Majors has to offer all day long.
Great article at the Times about Wedge trying to change the culture of losing. I remember yesterday alot of people were questioning sitting Smoak and and Cust so i found this interesting in that regard especially.
Not sure the link worked. Sorry new here.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2015279731_mariners_trying_to_lay_the_gro.html
Agreed, and you’ll find very few detractors on that score around here. I just hope he has vintage Felix stuff- second Cy Young Award stuff- in the roughly 2/3 of the season left.
Because,man…when he’s in top form, he’s something to behold.