It’s Not Super Two
Since people keep referring to the Super Two deadline as a reason why Dustin Ackley is still in Tacoma, I figured I’d just do the math. A day of service is any day that a player is on the active roster during the regular season, whether that team has a game that day or not.
Today is June 14th. The regular season ends on September 28th. By month, the number of service time dates available, including today:
17+31+31+28 = 107 days. That is the amount of service time that Dustin Ackley would accrue if the Mariners called him up tonight.
Last year, the Super Two cutoff was 122 days. Most years, it’s been over 130, but it’s going down as more teams are waiting to keep their top prospects away from that extra arbitration year if they can. A reasonable estimate for the 2013 Super Two crop would be around 110-115 days, which is why you saw a lot of teams call up their better prospects last week – Anthony Rizzo (SD), Mike Moustakas (KC), Jemile Weeks (OAK), and Dee Gordon (LA) all made their MLB debuts between June 6th and 10th, and that wasn’t a coincidence.
There’s almost no chance that the Super Two cutoff is only 107 days in 2013. Baseball America keeps a chart of all the players who have made their debut this season, and a lot of those guys have remained in the Majors since they were called up. It is not hard to find ~20 guys (the number of players who qualified for Super Two status last winter) on that list who will likely have more service time than Ackley, even if he’s called up today.
The Mariners showed that they didn’t care about Super Two status, or even the extra year of team control, when it came to Michael Pineda. We’re almost certainly past the super two deadline with Dustin Ackley, and yet he’s still in Tacoma. The only reasonable conclusion is that his promotion timetable has nothing to do with service time, and everything to do with the forced reduction in playing time for either (or both) Chone Figgins and Adam Kennedy. The M’s are apparently not yet willing to make those two share third base, and that is almost certainly the reason why Ackley is still in Triple-A.