Left Field Options
After taking two out of three from the Phillies, and thanks to the Rangers continuing mediocrity, the Mariners now find themselves just a half game out of first place on June 19th. They still aren’t a great team, but with the league-wide parity seen across baseball this year, the AL West might not require them to be a great team to sneak in and steal a playoff spot. Jack Zduriencik shouldn’t be looking to sell the farm in order to try and win this year, but the front office should absolutely be trying to upgrade the current Major League roster.
After the promotion of Dustin Ackley on Friday, there remains two glaring (and interconnected) holes on the team – left field and designated hitter. The M’s are currently using Carlos Peguero, Mike Carp, Jack Cust, and Greg Halman to cover those two spots, and even with defensive substitutions and platooning, it’s almost impossible to get decent production out of one spot from those four, much less two positions. No team trying to win games in 2011 should be throwing away at-bats by running out two guys from that group on a daily basis.
Additionally, having Peguero, Cust, and Carp all on the roster gives the team three left-handed platoon DH types, so there’s an overlap of skills that isn’t helpful and wastes a roster spot. You could make a case for platooning at both LF and DH, but you can’t do it with all three of these guys on the roster. At least one of them needs to go away, preferably sooner than later.
But, releasing Jack Cust or optioning Carlos Peguero to Tacoma won’t solve the team’s problems. The root of the issue lies in the fact that the team needs a quality hitter who can handle left field, both now and for the future. I think we can pretty safely write off Michael Saunders as any kind of real left fielder of the future, and Carlos Peguero is no more worthy of that tag than Saunders is. Neither of these guys should be in the long term plans for the M’s unless they make massive substantial changes to their approach. Greg Halman has the talent to potentially turn into an option at some point, though he’s not ready for regular playing time in the big leagues, and also isn’t someone the organization needs to be going out of their way to create a spot for.
Cust and Carp are both stopgap-DH types, and while you can justify using one of the two as the LH half of a DH platoon, I would argue that the team probably shouldn’t keep both. Given that Carp is younger and cheaper, he probably should win the coin flip, and if the team can acquire a decent LF/DH bat, Cust’s roster spot is certainly expendable.
So, let’s say that of the current group, you can make a case that the team should probably keep Carp and Halman around. That gives you the right-handed half of a left-field platoon (and a backup CF, which is still necessary) and the left-handed half of a DH platoon. If the team ditches both Peguero and Cust, they’d have the roster spots to aim for a left-handed hitting LF and a right-handed hitting DH. Or, if it turned out to be the best option, they could get a right-handed hitting left fielder who just moved to DH against lefties (assuming he’s a worse fielder than Halman, anyway), and it would have the same overall affect.
However, we’re still not advising a mortgage-the-future-for-the-present type of move, so the shopping list would hopefully be focused on someone who could conceivably provide value beyond the 2011 season and didn’t require sacrificing massive parts of the farm system to acquire. The M’s should be looking to upgrade left field (and potentially DH) for not just this year, but the future as well. Using that criteria, here are a few guys that I’d recommend the Mariners take a look at.
Ryan Ludwick, LF, San Diego
Ludwick turns 33 next month and he’s a free agent at the end of the year – at first glance, he doesn’t exactly scream “future value”. However, while Ludwick might not be a guy that could hold down left field for the next five years, he could be a solid option for the next few seasons. With a $7 million salary in 2011 and a pedestrian looking .255/.323/.400 line, however, Ludwick won’t cost an arm and a leg to acquire and he could be a good value re-sign before he hits free agency.
Ludwick’s value comes from areas that generally aren’t properly valued by the market – hitting decently in a ridiculously tough environment and playing solid defense in a corner spot. Ludwick is essentially a league average hitter (wRC+ the last three years of 105, 107, and 107) who has consistently rated above average in right and left field and played good enough defense to be considered an option in center field from time to time. The trade to San Diego last summer has hurt his raw offensive numbers and his advancing age will probably keep him from landing a big contract this winter, but Ludwick is still a productive player.
If the Mariners could acquire him without surrendering a key part of their future, they could get a significant upgrade in left field (and a much needed quality right-handed bat) who could potentially be re-signed at a reasonable cost at the end of the season. If he didn’t adjust well to the AL or the team decided to stay with the youth movement going forward, they wouldn’t have any long term obligations – he’s a potential option for the future, but not one they’d necessarily be locked into.
The Padres already did well for themselves by taking a chance on Cameron Maybin, and they’ve made it clear that they want to get more athletic in the outfield, so a guy like Saunders could have some appeal to San Diego. I’m not sure I’d swap Saunders for Ludwick in a one for one deal, but it’s the kind of base to a trade that could make sense for both teams.
Luke Scott, LF/DH, Baltimore
Another older option, we’ve talked a lot about Scott over the past few years, but the Orioles have likely reached a point where he’ll actually be available this summer. He turns 33 this week, is playing through a torn labrum in his shoulder that has hindered his productivity, and is standing in the way of increased playing time for Nolan Reimold. He’s also going to be arbitration eligible for the final time this winter, and you have to imagine the Orioles might not be in the mood to give him another raise from his current $6 million salary this winter.
His value has certainly decreased over the last year, so the cost to acquire should be fairly low, especially given that he’s damaged goods. However, even at his reduced performance level, he’d still be a substantial upgrade over what the M’s are getting from left field right now, and his previous performances offer hope that he could be even better than he has been the first few months of 2011. A strong finish to the season might give the M’s enough incentive to offer him arbitration and keep him around for 2012 as well, but like with Ludwick, there’d be no long term commitment if it didn’t work. He’d be a short term upgrade with the possibility of future value, but without getting locked into a multi-year commitment to a guy on the downside of his career.
Chris Coghlan, OF, Florida
I’m speculating on Coghlan’s availability, but given that the Marlins just shipped him to Triple-A this week placed him on the DL after he told them his knee hurt when they said he was going to the minors, it’s safe to say that his value has taken a hit in Florida. The Marlins are in an epic tailspin (their manager resigned today after 18 losses in 21 games), and Coghlan’s struggles are one of the reasons the team has failed to win games as of late – he was hitting just .230/.296/.368 when he was optioned out.
That said, this is still a 26-year-old with a career .283/.350/.414 line in just over 1,200 plate appearances, and the sole reason for his drop in production this year is a .263 BABIP that is 100 points below what his mark was two years ago when he won Rookie of the Year. There’s no reason to believe that his current level of production represents a real shift in his abilities, and while he’s more of a solid player than any kind of star, his contact skills and gap power would play well in Safeco. He’s also improved defensively in the outfield, but perhaps more interestingly, he played a decent amount of third base in the minors – Coghlan could potentially be a guy who could slide back to third base where his bat would profile better down the road.
That’s probably not a transition the team would want to make in season, but if they could get Coghlan back on track offensively in left field to finish 2011, they could potentially convert him back to third base over the winter and have a new third baseman for 2012. At the very least, he presents some options, and he won’t even be arbitration eligible until after next season. Because of his low cost and previous success, he’d probably be the most expensive player to acquire, but it’s possible that the M’s could put together a package that would convince the Marlins to move him.
Dexter Fowler, CF/LF, Colorado
Continuing with the different mold than the first two, Fowler is probably not a guy that Eric Wedge would love, but he’s an interesting long term bet who would also offer a present upgrade over what the M’s are running out there right now. He was the Rockies center fielder of the future a few years ago, but up-and-down performances have him on the outs in Denver – he was placed on the DL with an ab strain on June 6th, and Charlie Blackmon has done well in a short stint as his replacement, leaving an open question about whether Fowler will have a job for him once he’s ready to be activated in the next few days.
Fowler is a switch-hitter who draws walks, runs well, has gap power, and would likely have some of the best range of any left fielder in baseball if the M’s put him next to Franklin Gutierrez. However, he also strikes out a lot and isn’t a thumper, and this isn’t the kind of skillset that Eric Wedge has shown much affinity for this year. As a guy with 10 career home runs despite playing half his games in Coors, the M’s would be adding another guy to the line-up who isn’t a long ball threat, and that may not be the direction the team wants to head in given the current roster.
That said, Fowler could be a really nice buy-low option for the team. His skillset is perfectly suited for Safeco, and lining him up with Gutierrez and Ichiro could give the team an elite defensive outfield once again. The team could even platoon him with Halman (he’s traditionally hit RHPs far better than LHPs) to get some extra thump in there against southpaws, and Fowler would provide some long term center field flexibility if Gutierrez’s health problems continue to affect his ability to hit.
At 25, Fowler is the youngest and cheapest option by far, but he’s also the one likely to provide the smallest upgrade in 2011. He’d be the kind of guy the team should be targeting if they were out of the race and committing to a youth movement. Given their current place in the standings, I’ll understand if the M’s decide to go another direction, though I still think he’s an interesting talent who could fit in well in Seattle.
Comments
100 Responses to “Left Field Options”
Certainly not much of a WOW factor here. I’m not convinced any of those guys can produce at SAFECO. I’d just as soon keep what we got until we can come up with a genuine improvement, whatever that may be.
I wonder how much it would take to get Andre Ethier out of Los Angeles. He hates it there, the Dodgers have been disappointed with his lack of power this season (even though he has a slash line of .313/.390/.452) and he makes a lot of money for a team out of contention that is struggling to make payroll. I am not suggesting that we could get him for Saunders, but Paxton or Walker + Carp and another midlevel prospect (Liddi?) might do it. Plus, he is under team control for one more year.
Dave- These are my favorite articles you do. Well done!
I will point out I am deathly afraid of Luke Scott for non-baseball reasons. I’m not sure if I want an open nutcase running around leaving bananas in the latin players’ lockers.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/otl/news/story?id=6395744
Fingers crossed that the baseball team I support doesn’t make their talent evaluations based on the player’s politcal belief system. While I might not agree with Scott’s political beliefs I find it strange that anyone would let that affect their enjoyment of watching him play baseball.
Agree, i didn´t know this stuff, but i think he could be worse than Milton Bradley in the clubhouse…, terrific article
Ludwick seems like the right fit and the kind of guy the M’s would (and could) acquire. The problem, though, is that Mike Wilson fits in the same way but the FO apparently prefers Peguero.
I didn’t get the chance to see Halman in Tacoma last year, but yeah, his approach definitely doesn’t match his reputation. Even as a backup he brings a lot of value to the team with his speed, defense, and RH power bat. I think he’ll be here for a while.
@BLYKMYK44- I agree that someone’s political belief system shouldn’t matter. I also generally agree that great huggers like Sweeney shouldn’t be valued for their huggability (production is usually all that should matter). But I am of the mind that someone is capable of having a personality so abrasive that it upsets team chemistry (regardless of whether they are a left-wing nut or a right-wing nut). That is my fear with Scott.
We don’t need WOW. We need average production. Which we’re not likely to get from the young ‘uns.
ALso…you pay a lot more for WOW than you do for average.
I’m a fan of a Coghlan deal, it’s the only one that possibly gets Figgins out of the lineup entirely.
😀
Hey I like Cust (one of the few here that do, apparently) – but he’s not a viable option for left field. We definitely need a competent fielder that can get on base at a .330 or better clip.
Neither Oakland nor Seattle seem to oppose the idea of trading in division. We could ask about David DeJesus, too. He seems to be doing everything the same but is having some bad luck in the balls in play department. He’s a competent left fielder and an above league average bat normally. He’s being paid $6 million this year, but by now should only cost a little over 3 million the rest of the way.
Chris Coghlan, please, is not a this year solution. You are talking about THIS year… right?
He’s got a number of things to work out, which if he was already in the organization, would be one thing. And we’d expect him to be in Tacoma doing that until next Spring… including getting his throwing arm back.
Take him… off… the list. Now.
Fowler – a hitter from Colorado? Isn’t that one of those, never take a pitcher from Atlanta, never engage in a land war in China kind of things?
The line is “land war in Asia.”
And the answer is no, it’s not. Pay careful attention to the hitter’s abilities, and how they’ve been distorted by the home park, and so on. But Coors doesn’t ruin hitters, nor does it make them impossible to evaluate.
A few weeks ago I really wanted the Ms to target Chris Denorfia, but at this point it looks like the Padres have decided to use him as an everyday guy, so the price is probably a bit too high now.
He’d have been a great fit, though. Can play all 3 OF positions, good in corners, adequate in CF, hits well against both righties and lefties, and under control for 2 more years.
Best buy-low Option:
Adam Dunn.
Pefect fit for this team and SafeCo. Value has never been lower, but I still really like him.
I love the Ludwick idea. I thought he was gettable when he was in St. Louis, and could no longer bear the thought of watching Ibanez patrol LF. He’s no spring chicken, but he seems like the type of flyer you take on somebody who could benefit from a change in scenery.
BJ Upton could be an interesting buy low candidate if the Rays fall out of it. Granted he’s not a perfect fit for the park and im not sure our system matches up with Tampa’s needs perfectly but I wouldn’t mind grabbing Upton and Sean Rodriguez.
…but only slightly less well known is this: “Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line!”
I read the Rays probably want a major league-ready bat in return. Which clearly we already don’t have enough of.
DJW-
Trying to keep things short in my last post (which I never accomplish *laugh*) I should have included Carp playing more time at his better position in Tacoma (1B), which would lend credence to why we might move him (’cause he’d be blocked). We could have even moved him BACK to 1B in Tacoma and sold it as “we tried him in LF, our real need, and it didn’t work– so we need a LF” (as a sell to a team in need of a 1B, with a LF they’re willing to move).
And I know minor numbers don’t translate, but if our OWN organization, and folks on this website, were wondering if Carp had somehow refined his approach, and perhaps the weight loss had led to some new physical revelation– enough so that he finally forced his way up to Seattle, when all indications were Z had no real interest in doing that (or he would have been here sooner, presumably)– well, it’s much easier to sell that possibility of “he figured it out” (offensively) to other teams in need, than to actually bring him up to the majors and show… er… well, actually, he’s kinda still who he was (which was my fear all along).
I think if indeed we ARE looking for a LF (which I have no idea), than I don’t think Carp would pencil in as a backup (when we need someone who can play CF too, to spell Guty)… So I would want to maximize his value, and I was suggesting that showing that he’s league average or lower at the Major League level, has downplayed the fact that he was THE VERY BEST hitter in the PCL so far this year.
Alas…
Too late.
(Would have been a LOT easier– and ideal– if SOMEBODY had already seized the LF position, and he’d actually still be in Tacoma right now, and we could perhaps trade him for a decent long relief bullpen arm… That’s my most pressing concern as I hear people talk about “contending” THIS year without much mention that Pineda is gonna get shutdown before September, so having a 4 man bullpen will probably not be ideal in those latter months.)
Dave–
re: my last point in the post right above this one.
I’d love to see an article about whether contending is realistic when no one has yet broached the subject of what happens when Pineda gets shut down, and our other starters begin fatiguing from going so far in games all season– all coupled with the fact that we really only have a 4 man bullpen.
Safe to say the offense isn’t going to make up that deficit when it happens. (And it is a “when” not an “if” it appears– at the very least, shutting down Pineda, but no real solutions to the other situations in our system currently either).
Might they be considering moving Pauley back into the rotation late in the year and moving Pineda to the bullpen to cut down his innings?
I do like the idea of Dexter Fowler…good range and a SH to put in LF. Maybe they can pry him and Ian Stewart away and see if a change of scenery helps their performance. I think they both improve the offense and the defense and I don’t think it would cost the team too much to get them.
At this stage I think it is still too early to make a move. codybond31 mentioned Dunn, this is the type of player who maybe available as we apporach the deadline that would really offer an impact to this team as a low cost rental.
I believed heading into this season that this was a rebuilding year. While I am hopefully optomistic that the winning will continue, I still believe this team is going to fade as we enter summer and the arms begin to tire. I think the team should continue to move forward with the apporach that got them here, play the kids, play for 2012 and beyond. If we get to mid to late July and are still in this then lets make a move. June 20th is too early for us to know if this team is for real or not.
I don’t particularly like any of those potential deals and would prefer to use a Carp/Halman platoon in LF for now and find out what we have in those two. I’d give Cust one more chance to prove he can do something besides draw walks. That’s just not enough from a DH. It’s not.
Peguero needs more seasoning in Tacoma.
I think Jose Reyes would make a great LF, no? Anyone? But I don’t think that would fall into the catagory of a “Low cost move.” Or we could just keep him at SS and move Ryan around. But that’s a move we think about making in the offseason, but one can only dream.
I’d like to see us go after Fowler+Stewart in some sort of package deal. See if a change of scenery helps either one or both of them.
Reyes will cost more than the M’s can afford. He very likely could end up on the Yankees.
I was thinking Kubal would be a good option, but this makes a pretty good case for Ludwick.
But if the goal is to get a RH, it seems it would make the most sense to give Halman a bit more time in AAA and use Saunders as the 4th OF once he’s had a bit of time to work on his swing. I don’t think he’ll develop into a fulltime player, but he makes more sense as a 4th OF than Halman because of handedness and because there’s still a chance Halman could develop into a good player.
I wonder what the Mets would ask for Beltran or Wright. Probably too much in way of prospects.
How about Carlos Lee? Houston’s not going anywhere and he’s only signed through 2012.
I hope Halman gets a long look to see if he is the answer in left field.
I think a lot of people are looking at this backwards. The Mariners shouldn’t be looking to get a new LF, they should be looking to ship out Brandon League + Bedard + anyone else to bring in elite level young talent (or the best they can get).
This team has ZERO chance of competing this year, for many reasons, the most important of which are:
1) Pineda is on an innings count. Regardless of the situation, he will eventually be shut down which will without doubt end the pennant race for the mariners.
2) The current pitchers are being overused, including the pen. Do you guys truly think that the Mariners can use only 5 starters for the entire year? Eventually there will be an injury, and then what will the Mariners do? Add this threat, albeit a highly likelyhood threat, to the 100% Pineda elimination from the starting rotation, and you have ZERO chance of the Mariners contending.
3) Fangraphs in their latest “power rankings” have the Mariners as the 27th ranked team in the MLB. 27!! http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/fangraphs-power-rankings-62011/
Basically, this team has ZERO chance of contending. Let’s get real and ship off some of this talent to desparate teams for more young talent. Is it possible to get the Yankee DH/C, Jesus? Bedard and League should be at the peak of their value, let’s not ruin this chance because of emotions and ship them off for some younger talent to truly rebuild. That’s what i’d be telling the management.
Go get Wily Mo Pena.
plyka,
Thay are contending! Who knows if they’ll keep contending but everybody said they’d be out of it by now. It’s not right and would send the wrong message to both fans and the players to “give up” while we are only 1 game back from Texas. Plus, nobody’s giving anything good for Bedard. I don’t want to raid the minors for somebody but I don’t mind a smaller deal for somebody that won’t cost and arm and leg.
The Mariners shouldn’t be looking to get a new LF, they should belooking to ship out Brandon League + Bedard + anyone else to bring in elite level young talent (or the best they can get).
King Felix should fetch some good players, right?
And look at how many World Series championships Cleveland has since they blew up thei-oh, wait, you mean they didn’t win any?
But they are drawing over two mi-oh, wait, you mean the fan base still hasn’t recovered from having craps taken on them by their owners?
But the Marlins, they’ve won titles. Surely they draw fans. Wait, they don’t? How perplexing- they do those kinds of trades all the time! Why don’t the fans love this?
How about that. Maybe there’s actual value in acting like you’re in a pennant race when you’re in a pennant race.
This doesn’t have anything to do with the Mariners chances for making the playoffs.
Try Cool Standings for that.
Without Pineda we would still have 4 starters with an ERA of 3.75 or under. Don’t tell me that’s not enough to compete.
See above. Also, the pen is not being overworked, if anything they are underworked as our starters are regularly going deeper into games.
ESPN has the M’s 14. A ranking is just that, it’s not objective reality.
Right here you make me think you are probably a Yankees honk. Jesus Montero will probably never be more than a DH as he is a terrible catcher. While Bedard is a legitimate trade piece, as far as I’m concerned League is part of the youth movement. When this team is seriously contending over the next few years you don’t want an unproven rookie closing games, nor do you want to be overpaying some free agent closer.
Right now, I don’t think Bedard could fetch more than a few B-level prospect.
However, that could change a month from now. If Bedard is still pitching like he is and staying healthy, I’d imagine his value could go up considerably for a desperate contender. We could probably get a haul something a little more than Jarrod Washburn in ’09 and a little less than Lee in ’10.
Hopefully Z is considering some SP options for depth. I wouldn’t necessarily trust Beavan or Laffey or French or whoever to step into the rotation.
I agree that League should be considered part of the youth movement. In my opinion, I think League was being groomed for the closer’s role all along while the team tried to sell high on Aardsma. Even though that failed, it doesn’t mean the team should try to sell League. I think he’ll only get better.
Meh…I love FanGraphs, but their power rankings are pretty lousy in my opinion. I don’t think 50% of the ranking should be based on fan projections. It should either be based purely on total WAR or a more complex calculation of talent.
The Mariners don’t have a great team, but that doesn’t matter. They are half a game back in late June. Whether they are prepared or not, they are in the thick of the race and the team should take advantage of this opportunity. They shouldn’t sell the farm, but they definitely need to play this out and add some pieces to patch things up.
Anybody who advocates SELL SELL SELL when a team is a half-game back should be (the non-violent equivalent of shot) and banned from all ballparks — little league included.
Poke him with the soft cushions!
I agree with everything Luke Scott says. I feel like I have to watch a lot more of what I say up here than when I lived down in Texas. My best friend is also black and we both believe that Obama was not born in this country. Nothing wrong with being able to speak your mind. There’s a lot more politically correctness up here in Washington that I’ve seen than that down south, from what I’ve witnessed. Nothing wrong with that, it’s just different is all. You should be able to speak your mind no matter what as long as it is not derogatory.
As far as trading for a bat, I trust Z’s judgement in acquiring talent. Right now we just need to let these kids play and find out what we’ve got before we run off half-cock looking to upgrade over them, and as much as I hate it, running Figgins out there on a regular basis is the right call, although the booing of the fans has got to be getting to him as well. He’s definitely pressing. That never helps when you’re in as big a slump as he’s been.
SexyMarinersFan-
Nothing wrong with speaking your mind in MOST places, but here at USSMariner there’s a pretty clear rule that we don’t discuss politics because it only leads to ugliness, when there’s plenty of ugliness to be discussed already regarding things like offense, defense, and Peguero! *laugh*
(So we’ll have to debate elsewhere things like “The Fact that George W Bush was born in America is pretty clear evidence that NO ONE born in America should ever be president!” *I jest*)
You should be able to speak your mind no matter what as long as it is not derogatory.
If you speak your mind and it shows you are a fool, you shouldn’t be surprised when fools are not suffered gladly- and this is true on USSM when it comes to the topics discussed here, and other places where political topics are OK to discuss.
DONE DEAL!
Wow, look at all the emotional responses i got from you guys. One guy even called me a “yankees honk,” lol. I love it, the ole how dare you even dream of saying something negative or else, remark, lol.
Hopefully the management of the Mariners is not as emotional as most of you.
The humorous thing is that most didn’t even respond to my points, one guy actually made something up of me wanting to trade Felix (only god knows where that came from).
The overall points are simple and cannot be denied:
1) Pineda will not be pitching for the entire season. Without Pineda, this team cannot compete.
2) The Mariners have used just 5 starters for the entire year and have ZERO starting pitching depth. With Pineda gone, that means you have 4 of your current starters IF no one is injured which is a highly unlikely event. Also, with the innings they are pitching, they will tire.
It doesn’t take a genious baseball mind (if there is even such a thing) to see what is ahead for this team. I just think that management must make decisions with their head instead of with their hearts.
Well, this thread went to crap. I don’t have time to go through and moderate all the off-topic/political comments, so I’m just going to close the thread instead.
Talk about baseball. That’s it.