Quick Thoughts From Anaheim
Since I was down in Long Beach for the national SABR convention, I made the trek over to Angels Stadium each of the last three days. A few quick thoughts from the stadium:
1. The rally monkey is the worst invention ever. So horrible.
2. Dustin Ackley is fantastic. He hit line drives all over the park all weekend long, worked counts, played defense… seriously, he might just be the best position player in the organization right now.
3. Justin Smoak hit a bunch of balls pretty hard that went right at people. I know this slump is getting long and tedious, but I’m not too worried. He was never going to be Albert Pujols, so his fantastic April might have inflated expectations beyond a reasonable amount, but he’s still a good young hitter.
4. Felix topped out at 94 today on the same gun that had Jeff Gray (!?!) at 93 tonight. Pitch F/x says he hit 95, but he sat around 91-93 for most of the day. I’m not worried yet, but the M’s should really start backing off of his workloads in the second half. I know he’s big and strong and has endured large workloads before, but he’s averaging 113 pitches per start and has thrown 100+ in all but two games all season. You can justify workloads like that when a team is going for a playoff spot, but not in a rebuilding year. Wedge needs to put a tighter leash on Felix for the rest of the year.
5. Speaking of teams going for a playoff spot, I’d imagine this week ended any thoughts of the M’s being buyers at the deadline. With Texas finally playing well and the M’s getting whooped by the Angels, the team’s playoff chances are now slim to none. Any pretense of this being a contending team is now over, and I’d imagine we’ll see veterans moved in trades over the next few weeks. The Mariners still should focus on acquiring pieces that can help them sooner than later, but they’re probably out of the running for any rental types or guys who would be more about 2011 than 2012.
6. Mike Trout is fast.
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Personally, I’d put the Tomahawk Chop on par with the Rally Monkey. While it somewhat trails the Monkey in terms of relative annoyance (but not by all that much), it makes up for it in terms of sheer offensiveness.
Today is the third anniversary of Richie Sexon’s release. Just think: without him, we might not have Dustin Ackley. đ
Thanks for your hard work, Dave. Hope you enjoyed the weekend.
I agree, Westy…the Tomahawk Chop and the Rally Monkey are both obnoxious. Though if the Rally Monkey wasn’t around in the late innings to stir up the crowd there, they’d probably get bored with the games and head out even earlier to go throw some tri-tips on the barbie.
I went to a game down there several years ago and it was the Rally Monkey’s “birthday”. They had the players come out on the field during the 7th inning stretch to help sing happy birthday to the monkey. Seriously. The next day in the LA Times an anonymous player went off on the organization for making them do that.
Gee, at least when Mr. Autry owned the franchise decades ago, I don’t think he ever made the whole team do cameos on kids shows or anything like that.
Unfortunately it seems like it will be awhile before our M’s make the playoffs all we have in legite bats in the lineup is Smoak and Ackley maybe Seager but the rest are either aging,regressed or spot fillers. We don’t have any bats on the way either except for Nick Franklin but hes not going to be that big power threat we need.
Dave, any ideas on which players we might see shipped outside of the obvious Bedard? Kennedy? Cust? I cant see much of a return on any of our veterans including Ichiro with his huge contract.
Dave, the M’s seam committed to Seager at 3rd for now. I’ve read they are also high on Liddi as soon as next year on the big league club. If Seager hits well this year, would the M’s move Ackley to LF, Seager to 2nd and Liddi at 3rd?
My guess is Liddi or Seager get traded. Ackley at 2B is too valuable to the Ms.
Also, you have Vincent Catricala hitting for some solid power 357/421/574 this year in A+/AA.
He has played most of his games at 3B and has been getting some work in at LF.
I think you’ve explained the permanent chip that sits on Chone Figgins’ shoulder.
In my opinion, they should give him the LF job for the rest of the season, maybe in August, but he is the best bat in the group (Peguero, Halman, Tui,Catricala)
Someone’s gotta want Jack Wilson’s glove. I know Milwaukee could use a functional shortstop.
Do not trade Ichiro ever.
If I thought any other team valued him as much we do and would actually offer something of value back.. and if I thought another team would eat his contract dollars.. Ichiro would be the first player on this team I’d trade.
Kennedy will have some value, but not much.. Wilson not much (take what you can get).. Bedard will have value if he does well coming back after the ASB.. and League has value.
The younger guys, who knows.
I’ve been concerned about Felix’s pitch count for some time. In that horrid afternoon game with Atlanta, Wedge sent Felix out in the 8th (?, maybe 7th) after he was already over 100 pitches. He finally came out at somewhere around 126-127.
kcw
The just completed butt whipping on the eve of the All-Star break causes me to ponder the Marinersâ strengths and weaknesses: I see the strength to weakness spectrum as follows:
1. Starting pitchers: 1 superstar; 1 rising star; an encouraging veteran rebuild and two competent major league starters.
2. Young second baseman with star potential
3. Above average, but declining, right fielder
4. Average to above average first baseman.
5. Average catcher.
6. Average bullpen
7. Below average shortstop
8. Below average center fielder;
9. Well below average third baseman (Seager may or may not be the solution here)
10. Bad designated hitter;
11. Painfully incompetent left fielder;
Shortstop and center field are not terrible because of the fielding abilities of the incumbents â their hitting is atrocious.
We can stand improvement at numbers 3-11. To be respectable we need to improve at least numbers 7-11. Unfortunately, there does not seem to be sufficient talent if the farm system to give any reasonable hope that we will materially improve the team in the near future. Consequently, we must look to trades to improve this team.
Starting pitching is what we have in sufficiency and we used our first round draft choice on a pitcher. The bullpen is also something that seems we can restock internally. That leads me to believe we can and will deal pitching. Last yearâs trade of Lee for Smoak plus others is the kind of success which should be an example for this year.
League is an obvious asset we can trade. So is Pineda. I hope we do not wait too long like we did with Aardsma, however. Moreover, Bedardâs recent injury further demonstrates the risk of waiting too long to trade pitching.
Too late! The max value we could have gotten from any of our rotation guys was before this series. Nobody can blame the GM for that though, we were still “in it” before we played Anaheim. But, if people are saying Liriano can bring in a top 50 prospect, I don’t see why Bedard couldn’t bring in something similar….even injured! He’s arguably the best SP in our rotation right now!
To who? Overly sensitive white people?
Reminds me of that St Bernard in Cincy. Schotzy, or something like that.
I call the chop the sea sick song. Wo-oh-oh, for 3 hours. I turn the sound off when the Braves are on.
Mike Trout is fast. He’s going to be a helluva player.
Trade value question: If the Angels offered Trout one-for-one for Pineda, would you take the deal? Should the Angels make that offer?
That’d be the sort of trade that would make Z think he was getting pranked. The Angels would never offer something like that.
Spot on, Dave. While he does need to figure out a way to snap out of this, he’s part of the contingent of position players that I see a future for on the M’s (1B, 2B and CF). He will become a more productive hitter in the future, methinks.
It won’t ever happen for multiple reasons, but Ichiro is aging and doesn’t have many major-league years left. He’s easily the greatest Mariner that ever wore the uniform, but if moving him improved the team for the long term, we’d be foolish not to consider it.
At this point, nope. Pineda as a #1 has more value than Trout does as an all-star caliber position player.
Yes. No.
Incorrect assessment.
If Trout turns out to be the player he has talent to be, he’ll be worth more than Pineda reaching the level you think he will.
Trout projects as an elite defensive center fielder with great speed, contact, patience, and power. Remember, he’s only 19 and is already flirting with the major leagues. The Angels could have gotten someone else to replace Bourjos but they chose their #1 prospect.
You’ve seen how valuable Gutierrez is with just his defense. Trout is at least that, plus will hit better. The value of an “all star” level Trout is pretty damned high.
I can’t help but notice Brandon Allen is hopelessly blocked in AZ with Nady and Miranda above him and Paul Goldschmidt behind him. He seems like he’d be a nice DH option.
Well, I guess. If the presumption is that Pineda will just be a certain level of pitcher, whereas Trout will be the next gift to baseball, then I suppose that is true.
An ELITE offensive and defensive position player is generally worth more than an ace pitcher. I don’t know if Mike Trout is a sure thing yet, nor do I know the same about Pineda, but if you could envision a CF with the batting skills of Adrian Gonzalez and better defense than Guti, and only 19 years old, that is the type of player you can build a whole organization around, and who is worth trading a Pineda or even a Felix for, without too much hesitation.
Dave announced the annual Fangraphs Trade Value feature is starting tomorrow.
Expect Trout to be in the Top Three.
Agreed. Didn’t realize Trout fell into that category of elite, even with the hype.
Wow, looking forward to seeing how that list is compiled.
Ken Griffey Jr. was 10 times the player Ichiro ever was.
10x?
Ichiro’s value to the M’s is more than what he does on the field. His Japanese following is as important or more. Plus from what I understand, the Japanese will be very loyal to him. If he wanted to go they would probably agree. I don’t see it happening though. I would bet he retires as a Mariner, might go back and play for a year or two in Japan before he is really done. He would be a huge draw for whatever team got him.
I am confused with Smoak, and this is where some of you guys can explain the sabermetrics to me. Watching Smoak play I don’t see many errors, have not looked up how many but does not seem like a lot. But his D is not rated as high as I thought it would be. Is it because he is so slow and might not get to balls some guys would? I can’t think that would lower his ratings as far as they are. If you watch his daily play he seems fine to me. His hitting will come along, he is still learning. I believe he will be a fine at 1st. Not sure why he is rated so low, can you help me?
Tom you really think we have a below avg SS? He is considered to be one of the best fielding SS’s in the MLB. He has a few more errors than you would like, but that is because he gets to balls many SS would not get to. He makes plays many would not. His hitting is not what you would want, but like Guti his D helps with some of that. I also think you might be too harsh with Seager, he has advanced as fast as he has for a reason. I know it is becasue we needed a better 3rd bm, but he has been called to do it. He has not played 3rd for what 3 years. He has come up and faced some of the better pitchers in the MLB and in a very short time had problems. Not any differnt than anyother M. I see the IF being set and pretty good for years. Ryan will more than likely be replaced when/before his contract expires with one of the guys in the minors. There is a lot to be hopeful for, the pitching, the IF, now we need a LF, our CF to get 100%, and a long term C and DH.
Edgar Martinez was 5.61 times the player Ken Griffey Junior ever was.
make_dave_proud,
Your mistake is to discount Trout on the grounds that he me might not develop into an elite player, but not to discount Pineda on the grounds that injuries may slow him down.
Based on the track records of young hitters and pitchers, both are possible, but the latter is probably more likely than the former. Not making the Pineda for Trout trade would be malpractice for a GM, unless perhaps the team was set for cheap good outfielders and short on pitching (obviously, not the M’s scenario).
Ken Griffey Jr. was 10 times the player Ichiro ever was.
Griffey as a Mariner, counting the unfortunate 09-10 return: 5.77 WAR per year average (6.89 without the return). Over his entire career, he comes in at 4 WAR per year.
Ichiro in his first 10 years (roughly the equivalent of Griffey’s first M’s stint) is 5.28 WAR per year.
Obviously, this statement, even as hyperbole, is rank nonsense that displays a deep lack of understanding about how to evaluate the value of baseball players.
I agree that Griffey was greater than Ichiro, but they are very different types of players. I feel Griffey will always be the face of the Seattle Mariners more due to his charisma, the great story behind him, the home run derbies and all star game appearances, etc etc while Ichiro is more aloof, sometimes seeming moody and never really embracing the media spotlight that Junior seemed so at home in.
Not saying I think Griffey was the “best” Mariner ever, I think that title belongs to Edgar.
It’s sort of a silly argument, but of course we’d all be happiest if the rest of Ichiro’s career makes him eclipse Griffey for both WAR both in career and per season. I’m not holding my breath for this happening, but there are really no historical precedents for comparing Ichiro to anyone because there are no players remotely like Ichiro.
I was talking about if both of them reach their peak talents. Pineda is not a #1 pitcher yet, so the presumption is based on your qualifier of Pineda’s status as a “#1 pitcher”. Pineda isn’t maxed out yet and neither is Trout. Even right now, at their current talent levels, I’d do the trade.
@djw,
Thanks for the description, that adds a lot of context. At a gut level, my instinct is that dominant pitchers are much more difficult to come by than dominant position players.
@T.I.F.,
I think I agree with you, too. I still think the overall market would hold Pineda in high value, but I’m ready for us to take a chance on the offensive side of the ball. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
Well I don’t belive in the WAR stat. I’ve discussed it priviously on here, it’s a fictional “what if” stat. Ichiro does record 200 hits every year, but 130 of those are slapped infield singles and typically come in spots that are basically irrelevant. Junior changed the way pitchers approached our lineup. He hit homeruns, he stole bases, he played the best center field of anyone since Willie Mayes, he is the reason we still have the Seattle Mariners.
I’d rank the all time Mariners (in terms of their service to the M’s:
1. Ken Griffey Jr.
2. Edgar Martinez
3. Felix Hernandez
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Ichiro
I’d put Ichiro above A-Rod in that list, A-Rod was great statistically for the M’s but really wasn’t anything else. He wasn’t a big factor in 1995 and was gone before the big 2001 season. His real legacy here was leaving the M’s offer on the table to go play for a “proven winner” in Texas and claiming it wasn’t about the money.
Though, if we’re going to include pitchers on that list, I think Randy Johnson and Jamie Moyer probably both deserve spots, too.
I’m not sure the overall market would hold Pineda in as high regard as you think. Then again, there haven’t been many trades lately where a team dealt 5.5 years of cost controlled cheap potential ace pitcher at age 22.
When we’re talking about Trout and Pineda, we have to use “potential” for both of them but we also must bear in mind that both might not get any better than they are now. Injuries also have to be considered, and Pineda has more of a history and, being a pitcher, inherent risk than Trout.
Oh the egotistical nerve of that dude. I don’t really care about A-Rod either way anymore. He was a great player for us but you are right in the sense that his real offensive explosion came after he left Seattle.
Screw ARod like he screwed us without any lube. He should not be ranked on any list for the M’s. He lied and followed the money. I like many would have no problem if he said I can get paid more by going here, so I am gone. But to say it was so he could win,A^^HOLE. How was the records after you left. This was one of the major mistakes Texas made that hamstrung them until lately. I think they still are paying or just finished paying his salary. Too bad Nolan took over he has done a great job with this team.
Yes I am a bit irritated still.
Well I donât belive in the WAR stat. Iâve discussed it priviously on here, itâs a fictional âwhat ifâ stat. Ichiro does record 200 hits every year, but 130 of those are slapped infield singles and typically come in spots that are basically irrelevant.
There’s plenty of other stats that suggest Ichiro’s a really good player. But if you’re going to ignore them and make up your own criteria because you don’t like what a particular statistic suggests to you, and you like dingers, it’s pointless to argue the point.
Though, if weâre going to include pitchers on that list, I think Randy Johnson and Jamie Moyer probably both deserve spots, too.
A-Rod is an easy drop from that list, but I look at it this way: Griffey, RJ are HOF locks. Edgar, Ichiro have very strong arguments (and Ichiro is probably a few good years away from being a lock, and if you consider his J League years, he’s a lock). Felix is a lock if he pitches like this for 7-10 years more. Jamie? Not gonna make it. Of the 5 names on that list, probably the 5 potential HOFers should be on it.
It’s no more a “what if” stat than batting average or ERA. Even if you want to discredit the defensive metric component of it, which you can, the rest is based on historical study of what certain results mean offensively, positional importance, and base running ability.
I’m not creating anything. I just look at run production and guys that do more than slap infield singles. Slugging percentage is a bit stat. Ichiro is great at what he does but a great leadoff hitter could never be better than a great all around power hitter (by that I mean a power hitter that can hit for average as well as steal bases.)