Series Preview – Mariners at Blue Jays
Now that the Rangers have well and truly kicked the life out of the 2011 season, it’s time the M’s focused on player development goals that could pave the way for an improvement in 2012. The M’s head east for a road trip that begins in Toronto, where they’ll face another team that’s looking for improvement in some young players that they hope form the core of a contending roster down the road.
The M’s face lefty starters on Tuesday and Thursday, and they’ll see old friend Brandon Morrow in between. Given Dustin Ackley, Kyle Seager and now Mike Carp hit lefty, one critical goal for the M’s will be to figure out how to hurt lefty starters. Derek Holland and CJ Wilson didn’t seem to break a sweat against this line-up, and while Ackley started off hot against lefties (including his HR against Johnny Venters), Justin Smoak’s been the M’s most consistent right-handed bat. The M’s will need Greg Halman and/or Franklin Gutierrez to contribute. Production out of Brendan Ryan/Jack Wilson would be nice, but that’s getting pretty fanciful. Franklin Gutierrez used to excel against lefties, but I don’t think anyone expects a whole lot from him now.
The M’s also need to assess exactly what kind of hitter Mike Carp is against righties. This may interfere with him playing every day, and I know many want to see Carp sink or swim, but the M’s need to see a lot of both Halman and Carp. Halman needs to show that he can hit more than just the occasional HR without sending his K rate through the roof, and Carp needs to show that his struggles against righties were a small-sample mirage. No one’s asking either player to single-handedly claim the LF spot next year; rather, each just needs to show that they can be of some use if they’re put in advantageous situations.
Jays RF/Demi-god Jose Bautista missed his last game with a slight ankle injury, but is expected back for tomorrow’s game. Travis Snider was awful in April (I can still see his “swing” against a Pineda slider) and was sent down to AAA for a while, but he’s got 10 extra-base hits in 11 games since being recalled. JP Arencibia is essentially a young Miguel Olivo, as he’s got a wOBA of .305 despite a terrible OBP. He’s been awful against right-handers this year, despite not showing much of a platoon split in the minors. Aaron Hill’s descent from slugging 2B star to poor man’s Jack Wilson is nearly as bizarre as Gutierrez’ collapse. He hit 36 HRs two years ago on his way to a 4 win season. Last year, he still hit 26 long balls, but put up a putrid slash line of .205/.271/.394. Jays fans pointed to his sub-.200 BABIP as a reason for hope in 2011, but instead, he’s cratered. He’s got all of four HRs and a .274 wOBA that makes him one of the few regular players who’s hit worse than the Seattle Mariners.
What are you looking for in the remainder of 2011? Should Seager and Carp play against lefties even if it makes shutouts more likely? Should the M’s pick up older stop-gaps (Marcus Thames, maybe) to improve the watchability of these meaningless games, or would you accept another 100+ losses if it provided some meaningful input for 2012 roster construction?
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Yes. Obviously they can’t platoon every position, and I think they need to see exactly what they’ve got.
If a stop-gap is willing to come in with the understanding that they’ll play 3-4 games out of every seven, then sure – bring one in. Surely in the outfield (even with Carp/Halman) we could find semi-regular playing time for an actual hitter, maybe rotating through all three positions… and that’s including right field.
I say save whatever assets we have now–cash, players.– for off-season moves.
If some of the kids would do well that would make them much more watchable than the addition of a short term averagey player. I don’t think a Marcus Thames makes them appreciably more watchable.
The team is, outside of two position players, a disaster right now. We need to take steps to improve the team now, and in the off-season. It’s going to take a while to fix this.
Making the games more watchable right now shouldn’t be the goal; it should be the by-product. If we develop and/or acquire talent to improve the team, the games will take care of themselves. Stop-gap moves would do nothing at this point, other than postpone the inevitable.
By my count, the M’s would have to go 19-48 to lose 100 games, which is a little extreme. With their current pitching, even if they trade a starter, I doubt that will happen.
I would like to see Carp and Seager play. They seem like the most realistic possibilities to fill two big holes, so let’s see if one of them can step up.
Mostly I would like to see the M’s begin to solve the outfield problem. Going forward, they need three outfielders, and they don’t have any they can be sure of. I don’t think they need a stopgap, but they need to start finding longterm solutions, and that will have to come via trade.
This isn’t neccesarily relevant to the series preview, but it is somewhat relevant to some of the comments. What if the Mariners were to “listen” on Hernandez offers?
I love Felix and he’s a once-in-a-lifetime type of talent. But I love October more then Felix. We know that the Yankees are desperate for pitching and are currently discussing Ubaldo Jimenez in exchange for several stellar prospects. They’d have to offer more for Felix because – A) He’s younger, B) He’s locked up longer, and C) He’s performed better in 2011.
If they sent us something along the lines of Montero, Betances, Banuelos, Nova and Gardner for Felix, how could you reject? Not saying they’ll offer that, but if they did I say jump on it. It would help out a lot more in the long term. He could also net more then Pineda because
Pineda has the innings limit in 2011.
I really want to see Jack Z make a move at the deadline to fill the holes in this roster. Can he turn Jason Vargas into a LF? That’d be great. Or, Fister’s young and cost-controller – can we get a long-term solution at LF, C, SS (2 of the 3, perhaps) in return for him? How about League? He’s about to get a big hike in pay, so if you can get a decent return, why not? We don’t need a closer until we’re actually good anyway.
Playing Seager, I want to see, and Carp to a lesser extent, but I think we’re kidding ourselves if we think that’s all it will take. We have to give up something to fill the position player holes, and with starting pitching being an area of depth, I think that has to be cashed in for help in the field.
Carp and Halman should play a lot, especially Carp, as I have some hope that he will show he belongs on the team next year.
Seager probably belongs back at AAA, not only because he needs more development time, but because – now let me finish this – I’d like to see Figgins out there more. He is worth a lot less than nothing right now, so I want to hope and pray that he wakes up and starts performing better, no matter how remote the chance. Either that, or just cut him now; this benchwarming routine is doing no one any good.
Don’t bring in for anyone like Thames, unless they are nearly free and can be auditioning for a role on the 2012 club.
We’re already 43-52. We’re not going to lose 100+ games. We’re going to finish up at like 70-92, which isn’t good, but it’s not unwatchable.
a) Give Carp/Seager some ABs against LHP, but don’t forget about Halman and (damnit) Figgins – if you don’t cut him, play him against LHPs. You want to give the young bucks a look, but also give them a chance (especially Seager) to get their feet wet.
b) No stopgaps. A stopgap will help you never. I am not opposed to getting a bat that will be here next season and/or beyond, but a Marcus Thames will never help this team make the playoffs.
c) Six-man rotation if we don’t/can’t deal any of our SPs. That will help limit Felix and Pineda’s innings while getting a longer look at Beaven. Maybe even if we deal someone like Bedard, Vargas or Fister, we can still take a look at Robertson or Robles.
d) Get rid of Jamey Wright and Chris Ray and bring up Scott Patterson and Josh Lueke.
e) Ackley needs to hit 2nd.
Agreed. Especially with Ichiro struggling, you need to have a solid #2 hitter. Not that Ryan’s hitting is high on our list of problems, but he’s a 9-hole guy.
Unfortunately, we have a dozen 9-hole guys.
Given the teams they’re playing over the next week and a half, this should be a nifty 1-8 road trip.
One problem, we don’t have a 3 hole hitter. The best hitter on the team should hit 3rd and that’s Ackley.
I agree if you have solid OBP guys in front. With this team, though, the chances of Ackley coming up with two outs and nobody on is way too high to hit him third: Ichiro and Ryan have OBPs of .309 and .310 respectively.
So who the hell hits 3rd
Ya if Ichi didn’t swing at every single ball he can reach he would have a much better obp
You must really miss Richie Sexson.
People are overreacting to Gutierrez’ struggles of late. He is clearly not fully healthy, and has barely 200 AB’s this season if that. We have seen over the last couple of years that he is a .260’ish hitter with occaisonal pop, and gold glove defense. I am of the belief he should be placed back on the DL possibly even the 60 day DL, so that he can come back next year at 100%, this year is pretty much a wash.
Let’s start with 3B:
http://marinerbaseball.wordpress.com/2011/07/19/the-problem-of-3b/
I love the idea of Furcal. I have been a proponent of signing/trading for him for the last few years. He would be perfect in the 2 hole.
Thanks, he is above average at four of the five tools and has at least league average pop that could work at Safeco. I am very optimistic that he could man 3rd base, and would fit better than almost anyone else available. Not to mention that his value is so low right now that you could acquire him pretty easily.
The last thing we need is to sign another player on the wrong side of 30 who has the same skillset as practically half our lineup.
Furcal is basically another Figgins. And no, his pop sure as hell did not work at Safeco. If we were in a position of contending, and the situation was Furcal over Figgins, then yes I’d go for it, but at this point it makes no sense to go older rather than younger.
We need heart of the lineup hitters, not yet another slap-hitting tablesetter.
We need heart of the lineup hitters, not yet another slap-hitting tablesetter.
It’s unlikely that we’re going to drop $20+ million per year on Fielder or Pujols. Do you see any other ones out there that would be easy acquisitions?
The problem isn’t slap-hitting. The problem is NO hitting. You can win without power, but you can’t win if your team hits like Ray Oyler, doesn’t walk, doesn’t get singles, doesn’t hit for power.
People are overreacting to Gutierrez’ struggles of late. He is clearly not fully healthy, and has barely 200 AB’s this season if that
Guti’s OPS second half last year: .601. He’s going on a year plus of not being able to hit well enough to deserve to be in a MLB lineup, and the team already tried resting him, and it’s done nothing. He’s just gotten worse.
Realistically, you have to be prepared for the possibility that he is done as a MLB player due to his chronic injury.