A Few Thoughts On Yu Darvish
Originally, I was hoping to have my Offseason Plan post done by yesterday. A weekend fever nixed that idea – please return soon, immune system – and I’m now going to push it back to tomorrow. But, in the meantime, I thought I’d link to three posts we did over at FanGraphs today on Yu Darvish, who is someone that the Mariners are connected to from time to time.
First off, Patrick Newman has some background on Darvish, and includes a link to the full broadcast of his final start of the season. If you’ve never seen Darvish pitch but wanted to, make sure to check that out.
Next up was Eno Sarris, who explained why Darvish is different than Dice-K. They’re just not the same pitcher, and while comparisons are inevitable due to the posting process and their backgrounds, using Matsuzaka’s career as a template for what to expect from Darvish just isn’t a very good idea.
Finally, I weighed in on the kind of contract Darvish should be able to command after he’s posted, and point out why I think the current rumored prices are something close to insane.
I’m in the camp of the M’s doing whatever it takes to improve this winter, and if upgrading the pitching staff was the best way to do it, then I’d be all in favor of bringing Darvish on board. I hope the team has at least thoroughly evaluated him and created an informed opinion on his future expected performance. Just like every other player who is available this winter, I think it’s fair to expect the M’s to weigh whether he’s a player they should pursue.
However, if the posting fee is going to be $40-$50 million and he’s going to want a Felix-like contract in order to sign, that’s just too steep for my blood, even if the posting fee comes from a separate budget and doesn’t count against player payroll. While Darvish sounds like an interesting talent, the hype here is pretty large, and the lack of viable alternatives for teams who want to acquire pitching will probably drive his price beyond reason.
My guess – and this is just a guess – is that the team could do better by spending their money elsewhere. Darvish won’t be a part of my Offseason Plan.