Star Players and Attendance
During yesterday’s radio spot with Brock and Salk, Mike brought up the team’s lagging attendance as a point in favor of splurging on a star player like Fielder who could serve as a gate attraction. After all, the team’s revenues are tied to how many people they can get to the park on a nightly basis, and the organization can’t continue to lose fans at the rate they have been over the past few years. If bringing in a star player could actually have a substantial effect on attendance, there’s a case to be made that a guy like Fielder could pay his own freight in some ways, and reduce the overall total cost of acquiring him to begin with.
So, just because I’m curious and like evidence, I decided to look at the attendance of teams from one year to the next after they imported a star player – one with enough cache that you would think that fans would be incentivized to come to the park to see the new guy. Not all situations are the same, of course, and some acquisitions don’t really help answer the question we’re asking, as teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, and Cubs aren’t likely to see attendance boosts from star players because they’re already near their peak attendance levels to begin with. So, let’s focus just on situations where the fan base could use a shot in the arm, and where the park or the history wasn’t enough to draw fans itself.
2011: Washington Nationals sign Jayson Werth.
2010 attendance: 1.83 million
2011 attendance: 1.94 million
Net Gain: +110,000
2008: Detroit Tigers acquire Miguel Cabrera from Florida.
2007 attendance: 3.07 million
2008 attendance: 3.20 million
Net Gain: +130,000
2007: San Francisco Giants sign Barry Zito.
2006 attendance: 3.13 million
2007 attendance: 3.22 million
Net Gain: +90,000
2007: Houston Astros sign Carlos Lee.
2006 attendance: 3.02 million
2007 attendance: 3.02 million
Net Gain: +0
2001: Colorado Rockies sign Mike Hampton.
2000 attendance: 3.29 million
2001 attendance: 3.17 million
Net Gain: -122,000
2001: Texas Rangers sign Alex Rodriguez.
2000 attendance: 2.59 million
2001 attendance: 2.83 million
Net Gain: +240,000
2000: Cincinnati Reds acquire Ken Griffey Jr.
1999 attendance: 2.06 million
2000 attendance: 2.58 million
Net Gain: +522,000
There’s seven examples of mid-market teams making big financial outlays (in each case, the player signed $100+ million contract, even the ones getting acquired by trade) and seeing a rather mixed bag in terms of attendance increase.
The Reds got the biggest boost after acquiring Junior, but that was basically the perfect storm of a situation – he was a local hero whose Dad had starred for the franchise, and was the most marketable baseball player on the planet at the time. Perhaps no team could ever pitch their fans a more attractive acquisition than Griffey “coming home” to play in Cincinnati and follow in his father’s footsteps. The pitch worked, and they drew an additional half million fans in his first year with the Reds.
It’s worth noting, however, that the burst was extremely short lived. The Reds won 85 games in Griffey’s first year, but the fans didn’t stick around in 2001, and their attendance dropped back to 1.88 million, lower than it was the year before they acquired him.
The other big splash was the A-Rod contract, as the Rangers gave him the largest deal of any athlete in the sport’s history, and Tom Hicks sold the signing as the beginning of a new era in Texas baseball. They got about half the spike of what the Reds got, but still saw a pretty decent increase in Rodriguez’s first year with the team. However, just like with Junior, the shine quickly wore off once the fans realized the team still wasn’t very good. In Rodriguez’s second year with the Rangers, attendance shrunk back to 2.35 million – once again, a number lower than what the team drew in their final year before signing him.
The other acquisitions were followed by much smaller attendance gains to begin with. The Tigers got 100,000 extra fans in the year after they acquired Miguel Cabrera, but the story was the same there, as the team was still lousy and they saw a massive drop in attendance (-700,000 fans) in year two. The economy in Detroit is obviously a complicating factor, but it’s worth noting that the Tigers got a +500,000 fan boost in attendance last year compared to 2010, which coincides with the team actually being good again. There are clearly people in Detroit willing to spend money to watch baseball, but they weren’t willing to pay that money to watch Miguel Cabrera play on a losing team. They were willing to pay money to watch the Tigers play once they got good again, however.
Werth and Zito’s arrivals coincided with small attendance spikes (though Zito’s first year in SF was also the year Barry Bonds became the all-time HR champ, so how much of the spike was due to Zito is debatable), but nothing of the sort that would justify those contracts. Houston and Colorado saw no attendance benefit after bringing in Hampton and Lee, and of course, those contracts have been disasters as well.
Overall, the story over the last decade is pretty clear – when a mid-market team “shows that they’re serious about winning” by throwing a lot of money at a marquee free agent, it is usually followed by a small attendance boost in the first year of the deal. If the team doesn’t actually win in that first year, however, those fans flee very quickly, and the bad will fostered by a huge contract gone bad may actually have a negative effect on attendance.
These results jive with just about every study ever done on the effects of what drive attendance to Major League ballparks. Fans come to see winning teams, not individual players. If the Mariners want to get fans back in Safeco Field, the formula is easy – put a winning team on the field. Trying to buy yourself out of declining attendance by throwing money at one big name free agent just doesn’t work.
Comments
90 Responses to “Star Players and Attendance”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
^What do you think the trades of Fister and Bedard were made for? You can try to win and add pieces as needed. But you don’t trade away your ace early into an affordable contract and you’re most consistent veteran (one off-year doesn’t make him inconsistent) who pulls in a ton of revenue from a foreign market (as well as the local one). Who the hell says you have to dump your biggest assets to rebuild? You build around guys like Felix. It should be clear by now that Jack is doing exactly that. League could be dealt, but do you really think you’re going to get much out of him?
One more thing… A bad contract doesn’t have to be dictated by under-performance. Look at A-Rods deal with the Rangers.
I should point out that a lot of people don’t think that was a bad contract…it was the OTHER big contract that were handed out that hurt the Rangers.
But you don’t trade away your ace early into an affordable contract and you’re most consistent veteran
Felix’s salary is about to jump to $19M. Now that you know that please reconsider everything you’ve said and try again.
And for the record, I want to keep Felix AND Pineda and sign fielder/sizemore. Then make a move for a 3rd baseman in 2012 if one of our dosen’t pan out. At that point we will have a better idea of Furbush, Beaven, Hultzen, Paxton, and Walker. 1-2 of them plus a seager/liddi or one of our surplus of outfielders should be enough to steal a 3rd/OF away.
So, withouth Pujols (maybe) next year you’re saying attendance will stay steady at over 3 million huh?
Um, y’all being silly there? Winning, remember. Can’t win more than a world series.
Uhh, yeah, considering they drew 3 million fans before Pujols ever arrived in St. Louis, and now they’re coming off a World Series title, I’m completely sure they’re going to draw 3 million fans next year.
Seriously, just look at the facts and admit that you assumed incorrectly.
So, withouth Pujols (maybe) next year you’re saying attendance will stay steady at over 3 million huh?
I dont feel like you rubed it in enough Dave. Allow me.
If they lose Pujols they will replace him with Berkman. Holliday is still a premier hitter. Allen Craig fills Berkmans spot in the outfield. Adam Wainwright will be back next season. Joy Jay, Skip Schumaker, Yadier Molina, a full season of WS MVP David Freese. And if they don’t spend the $30M on Pujols they will be able to fill any other holes they feel necessary.
Oh and they just won a World Series.
Another thing about this scenario is that it supposes that Fielder will continue to hit like he has, which is not a given. If Fielder struggles at first, or even falls off the cliff, then you not only have the contract, you probably have a worse situation than before with drawing fans (unless the team as a whole somehow performed better).
Any star power draw that Fielder might have would have to be supported by continued performance at a high level.
You really don’t get it. He signed a 5 year 78 million dollar deal. Most people expected him to sign for 100+. If you think that was a bad deal, or some kind of unnecessary weight, you’re nuts. It was an affordable deal for his talents. When you’re building a team, that’s exactly the kind deal you want for a solid ace, a guy to build around. You don’t ditch someone like that 2 years into the contract, unless someone throws the entire farm at you. That’s just stupid. If it isn’t clear, I’m critical of your idea that Felix has to be traded if the team is rebuilding. If you need something to compare it to, look at Sabathia’s 5 year 122 million deal.
You might want to reconsider posting rebuttals. You wont get too far with the Fielder argument either. Nobody here is saying they wouldn’t love to see him in the line-up. The issue is cost. It’s been laid out a million different ways now. Unless payroll is increased significantly, it doesn’t make sense to go after him when there are several holes to fill.
According to Stone, Felix only adds 2,000 more fans a game than other starters. Over an entire season, that’s 32,000 tickets.
The best way to look at fans is to split them into 2 categories: the ones who are actual baseball fans, and the people who go to a baseball game.
The first category is us: we try to only go to Felix/Pineda games. Just because we got Fielder doesn’t mean we’re going to a Furbush game, it means we’re more likely to go to a Felix game. But considering there’s less than 32,000 of us, this effect is small.
The second category go to games because it’s cool. This group is 2 million – 3 million people. They only know who Ichiro is, and maybe Felix. They don’t know who Fielder is – he’s not Ichiro, A-Rod, or Griffey. All they care about is a team that’s relevant, so the act of going to a game is more relevant.
Look at Moneyball. 2001 with Giambi and Damon: 2.1 million, 102-60. 2002 with Hatteberg and Justice: 2.1 million, 103-59. 2003 lost Justice: 2.2 million, 96-66. They saw zero effect losing a star player like Giambi. They only started seeing decreased attendance once they couldn’t win 90+ games anymore.
The only way to truly raise attendance is to win 90+ games. If we sign Fielder, our chances of winning 90+ become slim. The teams who win pay $12 million for 10 WAR production, not $25 million for 5 WAR production. Damon, Kotchman, Peraltra, Beltre, Berkman, Roberts, Putz, Huff – all guys who were way underpaid for their production. We need to be looking for these guys, not Fielder.
[pedantry]These results jibe[/pedantry]
We don’t need no stinking stars…
Look at these numbers from the Dominican League:
7 HRs
15 RBIs
.316/.382/.671
in 79 at-bats
Guess who…?
Carlos Peguero.
(ducks for cover, hides behind the couch)…
I kid, of course. But it IS his real final line form the Dominican circuit.
(I kinda left out the 28 strikeouts in 79 at bats part, though… Slipped my mind somehow…)
Doumit is expected to make a decision today. He’s supposedly narrowed it down to two AL teams. I’d love to see him here. Would make sense as a back-up catcher/DH.
You don’t ditch someone like that 2 years into the contract, unless someone throws the entire farm at you. That’s just stupid. If it isn’t clear, I’m critical of your idea that Felix has to be traded if the team is rebuilding.
Be as critical as you like. We difer from strategy I guess. If the solution to the problem is continuing to try and find Lance Berkman 2011 then I would preffer we just traded Felix, League, and Ichiro.
Unless payroll is increased significantly, it doesn’t make sense to go after him(Fielder) when there are several holes to fill.
Again we disagree. I’d sign Fielder, Bedard, Doumit.
-$20M came off the books this season.
– We’ve been a $100M organization before.
If we aren’t going to trade Felix, Ichiro, and League for players that can help us/shed salary and we aren’t going to have a $100M payroll then we aren’t going to compete with Texas/LAA anyway.
ProspectInsider Jason A. Churchill
“I’m being told the M’s ARE one of the finalists for Ryan Doumit.” #mlb #mariners
Via @prospectinsider Twitter
Twins got him.
You are right, Felix gave us a hometown discount. However two things you aren’t considering is that his deal is back-loaded so the last two years are a lot closer to CC numbers than they were to start the deal. The other is if we aren’t going to win with him we should get some value in return for him. Don’t get me wrong, I’d rather win with him, but as Dave pointed out, good things can happen when you are willing to part with your superstar (like trading Griffey to Cincinnati then winning 116 games).
I’d be interested in seeing a comparison of teams that win with a few bigger stars and a ton of scrubs versus teams that win with 25 +2 WAR players.
Ichiro has ten and five rights, so he can’t be traded without his consent.
If you shed Felix, Ichiro, and League, you don’t just shed salary, you shed your ability to win immediately and you gamble on what you can do in the near future. Those are proven players. There’s already one hole in the outfield, possibly two, if Guti isn’t 100%. You’d be setting the team much further back than they already are.
$100M payroll wont be enough to land Fielder, Bedard, and Doumit -as things are with the current salaries and after arbitration. If boosting payroll 6-8M is all it would take, I’m sure Jack and Chuck would be all over that.
Not having 100m+ to spend doesn’t mean we can’t compete with Texas or LA though. A solid team can make good things happen. Last season showed many examples of that, with Arizona, Tampa, and Detroit all in the mix. Even Pittsburgh was in it most of the season. With an extra wild-card spot, there’s even more reason to believe that anything can happen.
Fielder is going to cost an insane amount of money. This shouldn’t be news to anyone. You have to consider the ability to resign some of the young stars in the near future as well, like Ackley, Pineda, Smoak (if he produces), Carp, Hultzen, etc. You can argue that Ichiro’s next contract wont cost as much (assuming he stays here)and Figgins will be gone by then, but you’ll still have a load of potential contracts to address. If you’re paying one guy 25-30M a year, things wont be any easier.
Speaking of Doumit, he may very well be a Mariner by the end of the day. He’s from Moses Lake and he’s reportedly down to two AL teams. You figure, the Mariners are likely one of them. If the Mariners land him, it would be a good indication that they are not in on the Fielder sweepstakes. He’s already turned down a $3M deal from the Dodgers, so expect him to sign for more than that. That’s just one player. Still have much more to address.
He won´t, he signed with the Twinkies…
Felix is from Venezuela, so I don’t why you’d call that a hometown discount. You could call it loyalty to his first team, but hometown?!
Also, nearly all long term contract are back-loaded. I don’t know why you would think I haven’t considered that, since I was the one who brought up the contract. It’s was and still is a good deal. If the Mariners unload Felix, it’s not likely going to happen until the final year of his contract, assuming there isn’t an insane package offered for him.
Purely a devil’s advocate statement, and I’d be PISSED if we traded him…
BUT!
Rangers had no one in Felix Hernandez’s league, really, and did pretty well this year… And they’re letting CJ Wilson walk, rather than pay what he’ll probably get. Plus, last year their model seemed to be: make a push, and then rent expensive pitching (Lee) for the 2nd half if things are looking good…
Overall, their pitching did decent, but a LOT of those wins they earned were because of the offense, not the pitching– which I think ALSO lends itself to the idea that their pitching performed better than expected. We can’t overlook the fact that two of the better pitching staffs in baseball, finished 3rd and 4th in the AL West.
If you have offense, you can win games where your starter gives up 4-5 runs. (See Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, etc.). We pretty much can’t.
Sometimes I think we get stuck TOO MUCH in an either/or sort of debate, when it comes to offense or defense/pitching… You can have BOTH decent pitching AND decent hitting. And those teams usually do pretty well, compared to recent Mariners teams. I would seriously be happy just being a .500 team the next couple years, with the opportunity to get hot and do better, while manuevering to take the next step behind the scenes, rather than continuing the “let’s play craps at the local casino” dice throw approach we’ve played the last two years.
In that light, Felix is not untouchable to a serious baseball team. But like I said, I don’t want to trade him. Felix gets traded, Ichiro retires, and then we’re the Pittsburgh Pirates/Houston Astros.
(Speaking of, has anyone figured in the Wins bump we’ll get from adding Houston to our Division, plus playing in that stadium a good number a games a year, plus less travel when we can hop from Dallas to Houston on road trips now… Which is about a 45 minute flight…?)
Damn, just saw the news on Doumit (after lalo posted). Wonder what kind of incentives were offered. Anway, maybe Snyder is a target for the Mariners now?
Not having 100m+ to spend doesn’t mean we can’t compete with Texas or LA though. A solid team can make good things happen. Last season showed many examples of that, with Arizona, Tampa
And how did they get to that point? oh yeah they traded big name players for years and filled from within until they could finally compete. The 2011 Mariners are nowhere near where the 2011 Diamondbacks are.
Again, I’m not advocating for trading Felix/League/Ichiro. But if we aren’t going to make some moves to put some players around them via trade or free agency this season then unfortunately, we should look into trading at least felix and league.
Really? We have to nitpick and argue about EVERYTHING…? Maybe “hometown” because he lives here, has a home here, family, and loves the place (via his own words)… I’m no genius, by any stretch, but pretty sure that was the implication of him giving us a “hometown discount”.
(face… desk…)
I don’t think you’ll find the latter, and I don’t think it’s what some folks are getting at.
Also, define “win”. Division / Wild Card at all? League Champs? World Series? Above .500?
I suppose for a start at this, look at the last 5 World Series winners,
I’ve dug out their team WAR at the end of that season, and how many players they had above 3.0 WAR. # in parens is # of players below 4 WAR. The slash after is position players vs. pitchers, though that shouldn’t matter, I suppose.
2007 Red Sox: 30.3, 7 – 5/2
2008 Phillies: 35, 5 – 4/1
2009 Yankees: 36.1, 9 (4) – 6(2)/3(2)
2010 Giants: 31, 6 (3) – 4(2)/2(1)
2011 Cardinals: 34.3, 6(1) – 4/2(1)
And the number of “stars”, which I’m defining here as players with 4.5 WAR or more.
2007 Red Sox: 3 – 2/1
2008 Phillies: 4 – 4/0
2009 Yankees: 3 – 2/1
2010 Giants: 3 – 2/1
2011 Cardinals: 4 – 3/1
So the last 5 World Series teams had 3 or 4 exceptional players, sometimes a couple of solid players having good years, and the rest run the gamut between 0 – 2 WAR or so. (I think the worst by far was Ryan Franklin posting a -1.2 WAR last year.)
The Mariners need that cloud of 0 – 2 WAR players first, as much or more than they need the stars and over-achievers.
JoshJones: Disagree. Arizona was basically in the same place last offseason that we are now. If we find the role players like they did, the Mariners could do just as well. Arizona didn’t sign anyone like Fielder. And you don’t have to win the division to make a run at it. Especially with another wild-card opening up.
You’re right about Texas and LA building mostly from within (Texas made some great small moves from outside the organization too though). They don’t have contracts like what Fielder will get either, though Wells’ contract isn’t pretty. But I don’t think the Marines are so far off, that they need to completely unload and rebuild. You can try to win now and fill the holes as you go.
MrZDevotee: As you pointed out, the Rangers had the offense that the Mariners don’t have. The Mariners are more dependent on their pitching. A deal for Felix would upset a ton of fans, me included, and it wouldn’t make sense unless it’s a deal you just can’t ignore. You’re right, a good team will always listen. Right now, I think it’s clear that Jack’s plan has been centered around Felix, so I’d be real surprised if that were to change so soon.
But I don’t think the Marines are so far off, that they need to completely unload and rebuild. You can try to win now and fill the holes as you go.
I don’t think they are either if they are willing to add a couple pieces via trade or free agency. But if those pieces are Erik Bedard, Chris Snyder and Angel Pagan then there is a problem. Those players don’t make us competitors or give us a shot at the wild card. We need those players + a big league hitter.
1st option: Ryan Zimmerman, Justin Upton, Andrew McCutchen,Alex Gordon, Pablo Sandoval etc. WE AREN’T GETTING THESE GUYS WITHOUT GIVING UP THE FARM. It’s not worth it.
2nd option: David Wright type players who are getting big money but there’s a lot of question marks. Again, not worth it.
So i’m going to leave you with this. What’s the point in having Ichiro, Felix, Leage if we can’t get another big time offensive player to support them. We’ve wasted the cheap years we had on Felix. Let’s not waste the cheap years we have on Pineda, Smoak, and Ackley too. I’m not saying throw the money around carelessly. Go get someone who is going to guarantee you top level production for the next few years. It dosen’t have to be Fielder…but I’m not sure who else there is. Then in 2013 or even 2014 we will still have our core players and can add that missing piece.
Steve-
I agree, but was just exploring other sides of the coin. A part of me feels like there’s some head-against-the-wall thumping I’ve been doing the past few months, hoping for significant upgrades.
In my head (now thumped and pained), I want us to upgrade the offense, yet maintain the level of pitching, all at the same time, with basically the same amount of money in the budget. Maybe my expectations aren’t reasonable? It’s like my assumption has been- subconciously- we’re not spending smartly or wisely. Our roster should have been significantly better these past two years. And moving forward, we can do better without any real change to payroll or any need to change the bulk of the roster.
Dave’s article about the WAR of this year’s playoff teams, versus the WAR of the Mariners, as it relates to Mariner payroll limitations, has got me leaning towards the idea that maybe there is another way to address the problem.
It’s almost like we ran into a wall at a dead end a few years back. Our focus on pitching and defense went so far as to hit that proverbial wall where no amount of improvement was going to compensate for our historically bad offense, and cause us to win games at a higher rate. We (me included) blamed it on bad luck, but it’s starting to look like maybe marginal Major League players en masse do not produce offense very well.
We haven’t seen yet if slightly better than marginal Major League hitters en masse can win enough to contend with above average pitching… So perhaps the next “exploration” should be to give some distance in our exceptional pitching, for the opportunity to improve MANY of the position players– not to superstar status, but to a level where they can perform and function like an average to above average offense.
Is our pitching depth deep enough to survive that, and remain above average itself?
And would the combination be more likely to win games than our current distribution of the roster?
It would seem yes.
I guess what I’m wondering/realizing, is a rational limitation to WAR at its purely literal level– based on the M’s recent history, it would seem that a team with 40 WAR of pitching and 0 WAR of offense is not a contending team, even if 40 WAR should theoretically put you at 85-90 wins… I don’t believe that team would reach that level.
Just as a team built with 40 WAR of batting, and 0 WAR of pitching, probably wouldn’t reach the expected win level either (thinking of late ’90s Cleveland teams and early 00’s Texas teams that always seemed so well constructed offensively- but couldn’t win).
So where is the safe balance of reasonable expectations within that 40 WAR model… What is the minimum offense and minimum pitching you can win with?
That seems to be the big question that the Mariners are dependent of figuring out.
Might we need to give up some of our pitching to get there? Maybe…
If we could improve our offense by trading Felix, who you’d think would command some pretty high level prospects and/or major league level talent, what would be the effect of replacing him with two less expensive #1 starters (say $8-10 million each) who could contribute more to a winning effort than one $20 million guy every 5 days?
(Especially this year when there is quite a few starting pitchers in the free agent market, and come late winter some of them will be below market as that market starts to shrink and the big market teams are done with their signings.)
I guarantee the front office has pondered this stuff, and had their staff run the numbers in multiple ways, and tried to figure out the safest “WAR Spectrum” to attempt to land…
I just wonder what that might be. And wonder if it might not require a major shift by the Mariners front office to get back to winning.
AND… (how many words is that? looking up above…)
Bottom line, I don’t want to trade Felix. But it might make sense to some larger minds in more important positions…? Even if just based on the collection of Dave’s articles this past week…
Those players, plus the emergence of Ackley, Smoak, Carp, Pineda, and maybe Hultzen and/or Paxton CAN be all the difference. And they can give us a legit shot at a wild-card.
As Dave just pointed out, again, and very well, we can still get a solid, effective bat, that doesn’t cost nearly what Fielder would. And we don’t even have to do it now. We can wait til after the season starts, play our cards as they fall. Maybe someone out of contention come July, is willing to sell? We simply don’t know what the future holds.
What I don’t get, is how you think we’re close, and yet you suggest dumping our stars and rebuilding if we can’t get a guy like Fielder. That sets us back considerably. That would make you far more likely to be wasting the cheap years on Smoak, Ackley, and Pineda.
The point of having Felix, Ichiro, and League, is that we are close! The big bat you’re talking about, may come later in the season, and it doesn’t have to cost us 25-30M a year. It may not even be necessary if we land the right role players and the players we have live up to their potential.
MrZDevotee-
I’ve had many of the same thoughts. And what I always come back to, is the 2001 Mariners. The ‘ace’ was Freddy Garcia. The big hitters, were Edgar, Olerud, Boone, and Cameron. None of those guys were real expensive and all of them really produced. Edgar and Olerud may have been two of the most underrated hitters of all-time. You could argue from that standpoint, that someone like Felix isn’t needed, but then again, we don’t have those kind of bats -yet. Maybe our younger guys can produce this year?
The last two seasons were incredibly disappointing. It’s easy to second guess when looking back, especially as things haven’t generally worked-out. But I don’t believe we’re that far out of it.
I’m not against trading some of the pitching for bats. I just don’t think there should be a plan to dump Felix. Jack has made it clear he isn’t interested in doing that anyway. What that does, is drive-up the asking price.
If a team really felt Felix was their missing piece, and was willing to throw a ridiculous package at us, you would obviously listen. Then see who can do better. The time for that is more likely in July, near the trade deadline. That’s pretty much how we landed Smoak in the deal for Lee. It would surprise me if a deal for Felix, that was worthy of even listening, would pop-up this early.
In my opinion, trading a guy like Pineda would be a better plan, if it’s determined that dealing a pitcher needs to be made to acquire a bat. And that would actually make a lot of sense if Guti doesn’t recover and an answer at 3rd isn’t clear before the trade deadline.
The thing about baseball, is everything can look great on paper. Numbers line-up, everything shown can suggest a perfect fit. And yet, a player can completely bomb. At the same time, a star can arise from nowhere. I would argue that just as many players have had surprise success here, as there are players that have bombed. The problem is, we need that to be a lopsided number, with more successful players!
If the philosophy hasn’t changed yet, it will soon, if scoring runs continues to be a problem. I’m more confident that things will turn around, than completely blow-up though. Carp, Ackley, and Smoak have all the tools to get things off in the right direction offensively. That’s not enough, but if Ichiro and Guti do rebound…. suddenly, things aren’t looking so bad. You’re dead-on about finding that balance between offense and defense. Wish it was easier to see that line.
One thing about Jack, is he always seems to surprise us. Nobody saw most of his moves coming. The Putz deal, the Lee deal, the Figgins signing, the Hultzen pick. I think he has some more surprises up his sleeve. Although I’m generally patient, I’m really eager to see how 2012 plays-out.
What I don’t get, is how you think we’re close, and yet you suggest dumping our stars and rebuilding if we can’t get a guy like Fielder
Depends on your opinion of close. I think we are 2 big bats and a few small pieces away. If we intend to sign Fielder, Sizemore, and Bedard as close then yeah i’d say were close. However, if we intend to sign Jamie Moyer, and trade for Angel Pagan and Casey McGee…then I don’t see the point in dragging Felix or even league and ichiro through that unless they want to. Let alone wasting a combined $40M on those 3 alone when we could shed their salaries and aquire great young talent. Those small moves you want us to make wont make us a competitor or even an 85 win team unless we get some better hitters. Do you not see how that makes sense? If you disagree that’s fine. Just understand it’s not irrational thinking it’s just a difference in opinion.
the Mariners added Chih-Hsien Chang, Francisco Martinez and Carlos Triunfel to the 40-man roster, reports Shannon Drayer of 710 ESPN Radio Seattle
Yeah, that’s not going to happen. Unless payroll is increased significantly, there isn’t going to be money for those three. And again, if you dump Felix and Ichiro (Ichiro wouldn’t be as easy to unload as you might think, as a 10 and 5 guy with an 18m contract), you create two huge holes to fill. So you’re even further back. By the way, Seizmore is reportedly working out a new deal with the Indians.
Small moves made the Mariners an 85 win team in 2009! So, tell me why that can’t work again? That team was competitive, in the hunt, most of the year. And that was with Griffey hitting .214 most of the year! I don’t disagree that more bats are needed. But cost is the biggest factor. There’s more than one hole to fill. And how do you know Ackley, Carp, and Smoak wont have break-out years, and be those stars, the big bats you mentioned?
I’d never refer to Felix as a waste of money. As you mentioned, he did us a favor with that contract. He wanted to be here. He’s clearly the guy we’ve been building around. Dumping him immediately for prospects, if we can’t land Fielder, is just dumb. At the very least, you wait and drive-up the price. And show him some respect in the process. I’d be more prone to deal Pineda for an impact bat, if trading pitching seemed like the best solution.
In regards to the post, I think the numbers speak for themselves in terms of ticket sales in years after a star player has been signed. I’d still be interested though to see if overall revenue for the team jumped at all after a star signing to low income team like the marlins for instance.
@stevemotivateir-
Dave’s whole point the last several posts is that one player, even a superstar like Felix and Ichiro, isn’t going to push us over the top unless we have a solid foundation. Honestly everyday players have more value than pitchers and we have lots of pitching anyway.
We have to give something good to get something good and while i’m not saying i’d be happy with it, if a package was offered that included trading Felix that could significantly upgrade left field and/or 3rd i’d go for it.
I love this article. It’s nice to see somebody trying to figure out a logical answer to a question before speculating on the radio. Dave, I think the word you want is “jibe” not “jive.” The study results don’t dance. Take care.
CSM-
This whole debate started over a comment, that if we don’t sign Fielder, we need to trade Hernandez and Ichiro now. My argument is simple… no, you don’t need to.
I’m not saying anyone is untouchable, Felix included. But dumping him immediately isn’t wise. If we’re serious about competing now, you would need a bat(s) that is equal to his value and can produce immediately. That just doesn’t happen before the season starts. Not often anyway. If you’re going to go after prospects…. wait! Start a bidding war. We would be far more likely to bring in a bigger, better return, if we showed patience and waited til July. Or more likely to anyway.
You’re dead-on about giving something good to get something good. Even Jack has said that he tries to make deals where everybody wins, gets what they want. I don’t expect Furbush and Beavan to get traded for above average hitters!
Dumping Felix now, makes no sense. Unless a team is going to throw the farm at you, it’s not a wise move. Dumping Ichiro is pretty much impossible unless we eat salary and he agrees. I don’t want to see him go either. If Guti doesn’t recover, we could be in need of 3 outfielders. Imagine…. no Guit, no Ichiro, and Wells as your left fielder? That’s not a good scenario. Halman, Peguero, Saunders, and Wilson aren’t good enough for starting positions.
I’m not opposed to trading pitching for bats. It actually makes a lot of sense. But not Felix, right now. Patience. I have confidence that Jack can fill the holes. If not immediately, than maybe before the trade deadline.
If you go ALL the way back, Griffey added 250k seats on a team that went from 68 to 73 wins.
In 1995 Seattle finished 1st in the AL West for the first time. In 1996 they saw 1.1 million extra seats as a reward, despite losing Randy Johnson (but gaining A-Rod).
Winning generated FOUR TIMES as much interest as the Kid hitting the majors. Fielder is maybe half that, adds 120k for a year. Winning would generate eight times (and if it was continued winning, 16 times) more interest than just Fielder.
Win and the fans will come. Signing players to “fix” the attendance issue is just a band aid when you really need stitches.
Agreed. It all comes down to wins. I don’t care how many celebrities we have on the team, if we’re winning 60 games a year, losing gets old. Watching a team of no names win 100 games would be exhilarating and the attendance figures would improve correspondingly.