A Quick Note About Josh Willingham
Over the last 12 hours or so, two different people – Nick Camino, a beat writer for the Indians, and Jim Bowden, former GM and current ESPN analyst – have reported that the Mariners are among the finalists for Josh Willingham. Bowden even put the same “front runner” tag on the team that he applied to his Prince Fielder rumor from Dallas, which should probably call into question how much you buy into these reports, as the M’s clearly aren’t going to end up with both players. Signing Willingham would be an alternative to signing Fielder, so I don’t really see how the team could actually be front runners for both at the same time.
But, let’s focus on Willingham for a second. He’s certainly a good hitter, as his wRC+ of 128 over the last three years ties him with David Ortiz and Justin Upton for the 35th best mark in baseball over since 2009. Other players with similar offensive performances over this stretch of time include Mark Teixeira, Ryan Howard, and Victor Martinez, so Willingham has clearly provided a level of offense that puts him in pretty good company. These aren’t the very best of the best at the plate, but they’re all quality hitters, and Willingham has performed at their standard.
However, I just don’t see him being a particularly good fit for the Mariners. While Willingham owns a pretty solid resume, it’s almost certain that his best days are behind him. He turns 33 in February, and given that he is the owner of a skillset that generally doesn’t age all that well, the question of how much longer he’ll be a productive big league hitter is a legitimate one. In fact, the effects of aging appear to already be setting in on Willingham.
From 2005 to 2010, Willingham posted a walk rate of 11.6% and a strikeout rate of 19.7%. Last year, he posted a walk rate of 9.9% and a strikeout rate of 26.6%. His power remained steady, so he’s probably not headed for a cliff-dive next year, but the significant uptick in whiffs has to be a concern, and it’s supported by a corresponding drop in his contact rate. He didn’t just rung up a lot by bad umpiring – his strikeout rate jumped because he had trouble putting the bat on the ball with the same regularity that he had shown in previous years.
If the deterioration in contact abilities holds, Willingham will have to be a monster when he does hit the ball in order to sustain his value at the plate. And, well, we probably don’t have to talk too much about the odds of success in Safeco Field for an extreme flyball right-handed pull power hitter. Willingham’s skillset is the one most harmed by the park the Mariners play in, as 105 of his career 132 home runs have been to left field, and he’s basically useless when he hits the ball the other way.
It’s not just how many home runs Safeco might take away from him either – among qualified hitters last year, only three players hit the ball in the air more often than Willingham: Alfonso Soriano, Chris Young, and Vernon Wells. Even when he’s not launching the ball over the wall, Willingham is putting the ball in the air with great frequency, and he needs a decent amount of those balls to fall in for base hits. There is perhaps no park in baseball where it is harder to get a fly ball to left field to land for a base hit than the one the Mariners play half their games in.
This isn’t to say that the team should entirely avoid right-handed hitters, or that every fly ball RH bat should instantly be eliminated from consideration. However, if you’re buying a 33-year-old DH on the free agent market, you better know that the bat is going to play in Safeco, and with Willingham, there are plenty of reasons to think it very well may not. If the park does to him what it’s done to so many similar hitters before him, he’d basically be a replacement level player for half of the team’s games, and there’s virtually no way he’d hit well enough on the road to justify a salary earned through free agency.
If the Mariners wanted to add an aging DH to their line-up, they should have gone after David Ortiz or step into the race for Carlos Beltran. There are decent arguments to be made in favor of going with a shorter contract to an older player in order to improve the offense this winter, but Willingham is the wrong target. There are a lot better ways for the franchise to spend money than to spend it on Willingham hoping that he’s the exception who can overcome both the park and Father Time.
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Gross
Good read Dave, as always, I did a little research and I found that 20 of his 29 homers would have been homers even at Safeco. http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2011_891&type=hitter Plus he´d play half of games on the road.
16 of his homers would have been homers in 30 of 30 stadiums.
He can hit in Safeco: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=19731463&c_id=mlb
Oh please no this would be a horrible move its like when we signed Adrian Beltre which made no sense given the way Safeco is built.
Solid reasoning as ever, Dave…but kind of predicated on the idea that Willingham is inked to be more than a one-year stopgap solution for us.
What if he were to be signed simply to be a bridge between what we have and the young OF talent we have coming up?
We know Trayvon Robinson probably needs 400 or so AAA at-bats to be a reasonable guy to audition again, and it’s just unrealistic that Vinny Catricala takes the job outright THIS Spring Training.
Michael Saunders has created little confidence. Enough said there.
Guillermo Pimentel is a couple years away from us even dreaming of him earning the job.
And for all we know, Casper Wells may be the next Nick Esasky- unexplainable vertigo problems ended Esasky’s career way sooner than the norm.
To me, the gamble that we can get a productive 2012 out of Willingham is a worthwhile one. Willingham doesn’t have to be- although it’d be nice- at peak performance for the entirety of a contract for him to be of value to us.
If he buys us time to develop kids and improves us only in the short term, I’d say go for it.
Sacred24…Beltre was one of the best free agent signings this team has made in a LONG time (or at least one of the few that worked out).
Angels get Pujols/Wilson, we’re the “front runners” for Willingham. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2012 Seattle Bridesmaids!
Probably a one or two year deal to bridge the gap. Not a killer.
The Mariner organization is a closed-mouth bunch. So much so that I automatically doubt anyone who states that the Mariners are the “front runners” or “aren’t in the running” for [insert name].
Unless the person cites an impeccable source such as Zuriencek or Wedge. I don’t consider agents or friends of the ballplayer impeccable sources.
I read about this elsewhere and wondered aloud “why”?
Wouldn’t he be the type of signing we’ve failed at recently, given his:
Age
RH status
Fly ball guy
Apparent decline
I’d really LOVE to break the cycle here of signing older guys it would have been great to have 4-5 years ago. (We’ve been doing this since the early 2000’s).
We need to be signing the type of guys who are going to be the NEXT Willinghams (although preferably LH, and gap hitters), who some team thinks about signing 5 years from NOW because of how well he did with the Mariners, “back in his 20’s”.
Not saying that’s as easy to do, but that’s WHY it’s not as easy to do– because THOSE guys are actually worth having on our team, and will contribute.
Just say “no”. (Meant for GMZ… AND Ryan Braun…)
Willingham only makes sense if the Mariners are planning on trading one of Wells, Carp, or Smoak. If not, then he’s a sign that the Mariners are content on being mediocre in 2012.
I’ve been thinking about Beltran lately and feel like he could be a nice short-term alternative to Fielder. He would provide a boost and could shift between LF and DH with Carp and Wells. Not sure what his price is or if he’d have any interest in coming to Seattle, but he seems more appealing than Willingham.
We can’t just avoid RH hitters. An all-lefty lineup would be easy to exploit. As long as the hitter is good and doesn’t try to launch everything, RH isn’t a bad thing.
Beltran would be expensive and his best days are probably behind him as well. He has also looked fragile the last few years.
@lalo on December 10th, 2011 10:46 pm
You’re assuming that the ball would carry to left field in Safeco the same as in the parks where he hit those homeruns.
The suppression of home runs to left field in Safeco isn’t just a matter of distance to fences. Two factors that reduce the carry of the ball are that prevailing winds at Safeco are from the north and north-northwest and that Safeco is one of the coolest-weather parks in baseball.
I think we really need to keep something in mind here when it comes to free agents. If, say, the Rangers sign Fielder after the Angels signed Pujols and Wilson, then there will be a fan revolt against the Mariners the likes of which we’ve never seen.
No one will come to the games, the M’s will have to cut payroll, and the disparity will get even worse.
The reason you have to sign hitters for next season has as much to do with keeping fans coming to the games as it does with scoring runs. The M’s cannot afford to go the pitching and defense route again. Not and keep fans coming to the games.
If you don’t want Fielder, OK. No Willingham? OK. But you’d better get someone. Or preare to see an empty Safeco field for the next decade.
Dave:
It would be great to see an analysis of Aramis Ramirez. 3rd base is biggest hole that needs filling.
Willingham isn’t going to make anyone feel better about Pujols/Wilson/Fielder.
aramid Ramirez would be fun.
Solid reasoning as ever, Dave…but kind of predicated on the idea that Willingham is inked to be more than a one-year stopgap solution for us.
This is Willingham’s last shot to make money, and given the dearth of hitters on the market, he won’t have to settle for a one year deal. He’s aiming for three years, but will get two at minimum. No reason for him to take a one year deal to play half his games in Safeco. If you want him, you want him for at least 2013 and maybe 2014 too.
We can’t just avoid RH hitters. An all-lefty lineup would be easy to exploit. As long as the hitter is good and doesn’t try to launch everything, RH isn’t a bad thing.
You need the right kind of RH hitter. Willingham isn’t that.
Beltran would be expensive and his best days are probably behind him as well. He has also looked fragile the last few years.
Beltran is way, way better than Willingham, and of the two, Beltran has been healthier. Willingham’s games played the last four years: 102, 133, 114, 136.
I think we really need to keep something in mind here when it comes to free agents. If, say, the Rangers sign Fielder after the Angels signed Pujols and Wilson, then there will be a fan revolt against the Mariners the likes of which we’ve never seen.
If the team wins, the fans come back. It is as simple as that. Fans aren’t avoiding a pitching+defense team, they’re avoiding a losing team. The only thing that matters in terms of driving attendance in Seattle is the team’s win-loss record. You want fans at the park – you put a good team on the field. Once you start making decisions for reasons other than that, you’ve messed up.
It would be great to see an analysis of Aramis Ramirez. 3rd base is biggest hole that needs filling.
Not a good fit at all, way too expensive, no interest whatsoever.
During his 5 years in Seattle, Belte put up OPS marks of .716, .793, .811, .784, and .683. He drove in 90+ runs once, and never drove in 100, posting OPS with RISP of .804, .793, .722, .673, and .715.
I liked Beltre as a person, and he was one of the better fielders I’ve ever seen at 3B, and he was one of the better players on the team. However, I recall very few big hits from Adrian over those 5 years, perhaps because he felt pressure to produce and expanded his strike zone, so I have no problem with anyone being disappointed in his perfomance as a Mariner. I certainly hoped for more production.
@Nick Camino
Just received confirmation: #Mariners are out of the running for Josh Willingham. His choices down to only #Twins and #Indians.
56 minutes ago
You can’t compare Beltre’s stats as a Mariner to his last year as a Dodger or his next year as a Red Sox in order to call his signing a bad decision. You have to look at his stats as a Mariner and compare what another 3B would have done in his place playing for the M’s. No player will come in here and increase his offensive numbers and that is not the point of signing a guy. The point is to sign a guy that will be better than the guy he will replace.
And as I have said a millions times before when people rip the Beltre/Sexson signings, remember that they increased the team win total by 25 games in their first 3 years here. Isn’t that what we pay the free agents to do?
I’d be happy with Beltran.
Beltran at the right price and years, absolutely. But he isn’t washed up enough to sign here. Maybe on his next free agent run we can sign him.
Wrong player at the wrong time.
Way too Bavasi for me. I know they might want to appease fans with familiar names and the appeal of him hitting 29 home runs last year.
But that wears away quickly when he fails to perform. We have been down this road before.
Time after time an acquisition possibility surfaces (and I’m talking over the years here) and the Safeco RH hitter problem rears its ugly head. You’d think for a team with as many perceived problems in gathering talent as this one (travel schedule, climate, tight-fisted and not-terribly-smart ownership group), it might make sense to level the playing field by bringing in the left field fence a bit so if an otherwise desirable RH-er becomes available we’re not standing perpetually on the sidelines. I guess I don’t see any logic other than organizational masochism.
I disagree while Beltre was a great Defensive 3rd Basemen he was bad on offense Safeco is just not kind to right handed pull hitters. There is a reason why he left us to go have a big year in Boston so he could get payed i never really thought he was that great of a offensive threat to begin with though because he only had 1 great year with the Dodgers.
So what was the balance…taking offense AND defense into consideration? Was there a better alternative?
Too many times, when someone says “He was a great defensive player, but…” they’re not taking the entire package into account–they’re not considering that if he saves more runs in defense than he gives away on offense, then it’s still a plus acquisition.
re: Avoiding RH hitters…
I don’t think anyone wants an ALL lefty lineup, but if we’re talking someone who relies on fly balls and power, a dead pull hitter from the right side is never a good idea at Safeco.
Ideally, someone from the rightside on the M’s should have the ability to go up the middle and the opposite way too, with an average or better line drive rate.
Not all of them, obviously– but if we’re talking about spending money on someone to help give a bump to this offense, he should be a player with the HIGHEST likelihood of success– which is probably NOT a RH pull hitter who relies on fly balls.
My wishes, anyways… YMMV.
I have been silently pulling for a Beltran signing, but I have no idea what kind of money he is looking for so I am not sure if that is a good idea or not.
I think Beltran is going to the Cardinals…just makes too much sense to not happen.
Berkman to 1B and sign Beltran with some of that Pujols money.