M’s Officially Sign Hisashi Iwakuma
As rumored a few days ago, the M’s have come to terms with RHP Hisashi Iwakuma on a one year contract. Per Jerry Crasnick, he’s guaranteed just $1.5 million in salary, and has incentives based on starts and innings pitched that could push the total value of the deal up to $4.9 million.
In other words, it’s a freaking steal. For context, he signed for less guaranteed money than Yuniesky Betancourt, Fernando Rodney, and Nate McLouth, all of whom were basically replacement level players last year. If he stays healthy and pitches well enough to make nearly every start all season long, he’ll earn about as much as Juan Rivera or Matt Capps.
We don’t really know what the Mariners have in Iwakuma, but at this price, there’s literally no downside. They’re paying him like he’s a mediocre middle reliever, and based on his previous history, he’s got at least some chance of turning into a mid-rotation starter. If he pitches as well as could reasonably be expected, they’ll likely have a +2 to +3 win pitcher for a fraction of his value. If he’s useless, well, then they’re out $1 million more than the league minimum.
This is about as good a deal as could have been hoped for to fill out the rotation, honestly. I would have been a fan of signing a guy like Chris Capuano or Jeff Francis, but given the price, this is pretty clearly the better option. The move offers the team rotation depth at no real cost, with the chance of giving them a pretty solid innings eater if things go well. And, given that he’s just 30-years-old, a successful first season could easily lead to an extension that could allow him to remain part of the rotation for the future as well.
There’s absolutely nothing to complain about here. A pretty terrific move for the organization, and one that can’t be seen as anything other than a positive.
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Yeah but he’s not Prince Fielder, is he?
Just kidding, I absolutely LOVE this signing. As you said, there’s literally nothing to complain about here because there’s no downside.
More proof that Z is brilliant….
19 million posting fee in 2010 and all he got was 1.5 guaranteed in 2011? Crazy
So good to see a move like this that isn’t a grab for some old-n-busted, blue light special, large item pickup day. Nothing but upside, especially with all the good pitching coming down the pipe, and it’s practically for a freakin song. Well done. More like this, Z, more like this…
Yeeehaw! The rotation looks good. Let’s score us some bats now Jack!
Upside of maybe Hiroki Kuroda for that dough? Yes, pretty please. I would love to go the Swap Meet with Jackie Z.
By the way, for everyone who complains about the ownership, the M’s ties to Japan continue to provide them with access to players from a talent pool that take big discounts to play for this organization. You might not like Howard Lincoln or Chuck Armstrong, but when you whine about the owner not attending games, remember that this ownership group also brings us things like this.
Any signing that means less Charlie Furbush is a win in my book.
19 million posting fee in 2010 and all he got was 1.5 guaranteed in 2011? Crazy
Japanese media had reported that Oakland made a four-year proposal worth $15.25 million.
“Their offer was low and they weren’t sincere,” Nomura said.
I have to agree. If we’re looking at limited dollars to make an impact in 2012, I prefer this to the last couple of years worth of Large Item Pickup Day we’ve been seeing.
HOLY CRAP what a steal. I was expecting something closer to last year’s post + offer, but this is nuts.
Backup SS, veteran SP, another C, lefty RP, looks like we have everything we need except the big bat.
I’d still give Moyer a call and a NRI for Peoria, though- no harm in having more rotation arms than you can really use, given that some of them can go down to Tacoma or go to the ‘pen if need be.
The other possibility is you sell high on Iwakuma if it’s July 30th, you’re 10+ games out, but he’s pitching decently- at that salary even small-market teams in a pennant race could shell out.
Dave, I’m sorry but I just can’t get excited about this deal.
Signing Iwakuma pretty much guarantees we’re not going to see any more JEFF FRANCIS WATCH 2012 postings, and that’s depressing.
Thanks, Dave, for the insight. Best baseball blog on the internet.
Cool he knows we can barely scratch 1 run a game right?
Remember that this ownership group also brings us things like this.
We got a good deal here, but they dug themselves a big hole with the Johjima extension.
Wow. I wouldn’t have imagined that we’d get Iwakuma for *that* cheap.
Well, the good news is that I was able to secure the Iwakuma jersey I wasn’t able to while I was in Japan last August. Yay!
Backup SS, veteran SP, another C, lefty RP, looks like we have everything we need except the big bat.
I think you meant to say “except the significant upgrades for LF, 3b and DH”. Doesn’t have to be the big bat… can be just better overall players.
Wow what a slap in the face to the A’s after willing to give a $19M posting fee last year, and God knows how much of a contract & years on top of that they were willing to go on him after winning the bid.
Holy crap. This is a steal and a half. For less than two weeks or Prince Fielder you can have a SP for a year.
Even if he was a 1-2 WAR player… You are a lesser deity, Jack.
Love this move as well. Really, I’m shocked at the figures. Never would have guessed the guarantee would be so low. I’d still love to see Moyer get a shot, but I’m feeling pretty comfortable with the pitching staff now.
Yeah, I think a lot of people don’t really grasp just how truly awful most of our guys were offensively. Maybe in part because (just to pick one example) we don’t hear announcers talk about how Miguel Olivo is a truly terrible hitter – instead we hear he’s a “gamer” and “leads the team in home runs”, so we think “we’ve got a good catcher – that position’s covered!”
Not to pick on Olivo in particular – just to point out how bad most of our hitters were.
For about $4M we got Sherril, Jaso, Iwakuma, and Munenori Kawasaki (Minor League deal, should earn a roster spot backing up B. Ryan).
I am so impressed with JackZ and the M’s organization. They make such great under the radar moves.
Unfortunately, these are the types of moves that complete a competitive team. For the M’s I feel that these moves will be done in vein.
1. We go from 77 wins to 83 wins (hypothetically)
2. If these guys do pan out then in 2 years when we do become competitive Iwakuma will be 32 and more expensive, Jason won’t be cheap, Sherill will be 36 and useless.
I’m excited about these moves but unless we find a way to acquire another bat or two then it really doesn’t translate to anymore than beating the A’s for third place.
Kudos to JZ for sticking to his game plan. Watching JZ execute his plan is like playing in a poker tournament, patience, patience, and more patience.
we don’t hear announcers talk about how Miguel Olivo is a truly terrible hitter – instead we hear he’s a “gamer” and “leads the team in home runs”, so we think “we’ve got a good catcher – that position’s covered!”
It’s not just announcers or the local media who pursued that line of reasoning. Regular posters here did it too, arguing vociferously that one of (if not the) worst-hitting C in the majors by most serious metrics was “above average” or “fine” because of a few home runs.
3B: Kyle Seager 94 wRC+
LF: Casper Wells 101 wRC+
DH: Mike Carp 117 wRC+
are holes, as opposed to
CF: Franklin Gutierrez 52 wRC+
RF: Ichiro Suzuki 82 wRC+
1B: Justin Smoak 100 wRC+
I just don’t think 3B/LF/DH are holes. Filled with rookies who did decent but underperformed, sure. But holes? No.
I rather have 1 star bat and 4 promising rookies, than 5 decent veterans. One will give you 10 WAR, the other will give you 5-25 WAR. When trying to contend, I take the variance every time.
Of course you could only afford 2 veterans for the price of one star bat, so it’d be more like 1/4 and 2/3. 5-25 WAR variance vs. 5-19 WAR with slightly higher odds. Which one do you take?
“By the way, for everyone who complains about the ownership, the M’s ties to Japan continue to provide them with access to players from a talent pool that take big discounts to play for this organization. You might not like Howard Lincoln or Chuck Armstrong, but when you whine about the owner not attending games, remember that this ownership group also brings us things like this.”
This is a remarkable statement in a number of ways.
No. 1: “A talent pool that take big discounts to play for this organization”. And the results have been more than a little mixed. When the Mariners are writing another $18,000,000 check next season to a .270 singles hitter, please remind us about the big discounts.
No. 2: “when you whine about the owner not attending games”. Who “whines” about that? Some supporters of the team want the owner to be engaged and involved. Should they not want that? I couldn’t care less about the owner attending games, but I wish he would look at the results of the last 10 years and ask Howard and Chuck not to attend games. Or come to work.
No. 3: Mr. Iwakuma had a horrible season last year, his speed was drastically down, and he has not proven he can get anyone out in the major leagues. Do we need another pitcher who tops out at 87 to 91 mph? Really? Maybe that’s why we are paying him the salary of a “mediocre middle reliever”. And yet somehow he’s already projected as a starter who will “fill out the rotation”. It’s precisely this kind of wishful thinking that explains the Mariners’ records over the past 10 years.
I really like this signing, especially with the incentives instead of guaranteed money. I seem to remember him having some injury problems and possibly a surgery, and it’s not unheard of or necessarily a steal when a player in that position takes a one year contract with incentives to prove himself healthy and good before going for a long-term contract for big money. If he pitches well this year he could end up way ahead in the long run.
With Ichiro’s contract up the end of the year, does anyone else think that having another Japanese player on the team would make it easier for the owners to let him go if he’s really ‘lost it’ as a player? Do you think they’ll always have at least one Japanese player on the team?
If you can’t see that Ichiro has been a massive net positive for the organization, your opinion has no validity.
And, really, the idea that signings like Iwakuma are why the Mariners have failed over the last 10 years supports that conclusion. Feel free to go comment elsewhere, where facts and reason aren’t necessary.
Starting to think the M´s are the only team interested in Prince Fielder, Cubs are out, they just trade for Anthony Rizzo, Nationals are saying this “Mike Rizzo said yesterday that first base is “settled” in Washington, but acknowledged that Prince Fielder will make a major impact on his next team”, Rangers will pay for Darvish, the Marlins are out too, Blue Jays won´t pay for more than 5 years, so Orioles and Mariners still in on him.
This deal seems to be a replica of the Bedard deal last year, and that turned out fairly well. If you remove all of the emotion tied to “the Bedard trade,” and look at the contract for last year, he was paid $1 mil, pitched pretty darned well for half a season, and was turned into a couple of decent prospects BEFORE the incentives kicked in. Even if he doesn’t become a cornerstone in the rotation for years to come, if he could come close to what Bedard did (and got us) last year, this is money in the bank.
And as far as Fielder goes, I’m with everybody else in that I just want an end. That being said, I would loooooove to be a fly on the wall in Boras’ office right now. “The Cubs did WHAT? Mike Rizzo said WHAT????????” Offer him two years for 30 mil…HA!
Cubs literally traded 2 non-ranked (BA/BP)prospects for Anthony Rizzo. WTF SAN DIEGO.
Cashner’s a good arm. He wasn’t ranked as a prospect because he had too much MLB service time. He’s not quite James Paxton, but it’s a similar skillset with just a few more health concerns. They didn’t give him away.
I’m guessing “dantheman” values “real velocity”, “proven power” and “masculine narcissism” more than FIP, WAR and OAR (Originality Above Replacement).
dantheman, your points are flawed. As for the first point, you can’t honestly pretend that the checks they’ve written out for Ichiro have always been for a player hitting .270! He has one down year and you’re going to act like he’s achieved nothing? Reminder, we got Ichiro as a steal when he first came to the league, where he was the MVP and Rookie of the Year.
Your second I’ll leave alone because I don’t care intently too much on where the Owners are during games. Now your third point is very much off base. And the defining reason is that you are forgetting the one major reason Dave likes this signing: It is costing the Mariners very little in guaranteed money!!! If we payed this guy Carlos Silva money, then yeah, I’d be on your band wagon. But Jack Z. doesn’t pay pitchers that kind of money, especially in this circumstance.
If you take a scenario like this and only look at negatives that you have to stretch to find, then you’re missing on so many different positives. Here’s one: We need a veteran arm for the rotation to be a place holder for our young guns coming up, and since the prospect of Prince Fielder costing so much if we’re luck enough to sign him, doesn’t it make sense to get a player who just three years ago was the MVP in his league in Japan, has a ton of experience, pitches to Safeco’s strengths, AND COSTS ALMOST NOTHING!?!?!? With this signing, it also frees up potential money for the big bat.
In short: Huge discount on a low risk, high reward place holding pitcher leaving money to be allocated elsewhere. Jack Z. is filling his needed holes without spending big money. I honestly think Prince is on his way to the Pacific Northwest. Prepare Mariners fans!!!
So to get Rizzo we’d have had to offer something like Paxton + one of Chiang, Robinson?
Valencia, I am totally in agreement with you. Let’s look at our players we need to “totally upgrade” at LF/3B/DH.
Kyle Seager: Rookie, who just two years ago led all minor leaguers in hits. Has hit everywhere he’s gone, had some very good stretches while in Seattle, and is still learning. He’s not going to hit for power, but don’t be surprised if he plays every day next year that he hits .300 because I wouldn’t be.
Alex Liddi: Rookie, who is still learning the ropes. He has better defensive abilities at 3rd then most expected, but yeah he’s not Adrian Beltre. He has serious power from the right side and had a huge year in Tacoma last year. He’s is young and still has such a high ceiling.
Casper Wells: Theoretical Rookie, who had 4 straight games with home runs… from the right side of the plate. He has a big league arm in LF, decent to above decent defense. Tons to be excited about this kid!
Mike Carp: Theoretical Rookie who was finally given an opportunity to plan more the 10 games last year and showed why his hitting in Tacoma wasn’t a fluke. And he’s only going to get better. He can step in and play LF, 1st, and possibly 3rd if needed (throws right handed). I can’t even see his ceiling yet.
These aren’t mediocre veterans. To “upgrade” at these positions would be to start over with unknowns. This team, especially if we get Prince Fielder, will be drastically better than the last few years. Seattle fans are so used to being inept on offense, it seems that their way of fixing it is to go out and get a brand new group of players, no matter who much they cost or where they’re from. It’s like the idea of players, especially young players, getting better, learning more, getting comfortable, getting stronger, are all completely impossible.
I think the Fielder sweepstakes are coming down to just us and the Nationals. Boras is really leaving his run late on this. Love the Iwakuma signing too.
I was thinking we must have gotten an M’s-friendly Japan discount. Maybe this positively affects some payroll projections and could potentially allow us to up our ante on other pieces. I’m slightly terrified we do ultimately end up signing Fielder, and then the ownerships’ wallet closes for the next 3-4 years as they expect this team to actually compete with him in the middle of the order, and we don’t continue to make the kind of smart, critical roster moves in the next couple years to help plug some of the multiple other holes that will keep us from competing with Texas and that SoCal team I hate. If we didn’t have Z calling these shots I would be 100% pessimistic right now, but have plenty of concerns about his constraints to keep me occupied.
Good acquisition. If Iwakuma is healthy, he might get 200 innings and 13-15 wins. Exactly what the M’s need to help the starting rotation.
It occurs to me that the Fielder thing is lose/lose, really, as far as offseason conversation and M’s expectations goes. There will be yowling if he isn’t signed here, obviously.
But if he IS signed here, the same mindless crowd will crow “finally! but this offseason is still a failure because there’s no protection for Fielder, they’re still going to cheap out on offense, blah blah friggin blah”. Fielder is seen as just doing the minimum, now.
Sigh.
One thing to consider about the velocity/shoulder concerns: his velocity dropped last year after throwing a 147 pitch complete game.
If only Danny Hultzen can prove my view about his being in the UVa pre-med program meaning he’s got elite make-up and being a crafty lefty right out of spring training, we could have one helluva rotation. And if he’s on an innings limit, that just fits well for James Paxton if he can be ready in mid-summer.
Maybe I’m an optimist, but I could see the M’s playing some important games late in the summer — even if they don’t quite have enough.
Also, in fairness to the guy who said all we have left is a “big bat,” that is what the M’s have been looking for in addition to the roles filled by Jaso, Kawasaki, Sherrill and Iwakuma. “Big bat” is the other item on their shopping list.
“For the M’s I feel that these moves will be done in vein.”
Is the front office shooting up now?
Dave, I realize Ichiro’s value to the Mariners. I’m not talking about that. I’m talking about his next contract. I remember when Jeeter was up for a contract national sports writers went on and on about how he had to be paid more for less production because the franchise “owed” it to him. In my mind, players like him and Ichiro may be owed something, but not money. The mariers have made Ichiro a multi multi millionaire. So if he declines further this year, which I dout he will but it’s possible, should the Mariners give him a huge contract to give them less than a player they could sign for less ang get more from, because of his value to the organization? Do you reward past performance or put the best 9 players you can on the field? That’s all I was saying.
Let’s all stop roasting the Mariners brass for the contract that Ichiro hasn’t received yet.
You know, the one that there is currently no talk about him even ever receiving?
Certainly there are parallels between Jeter and Ichiro, but that doesn’t mean Ichiro receiving another contract is a forgone conclusion, let alone the fact that he wouldn’t necessarily EARN it.
The man is 38, has had ONE bad season, and still has a year to go before this is even a relevant discussion.
Let’s all wait to cross that bridge til it’s at least on the horizon.
onetreehugger: Pretty sure Dave was talking to dantheman.
I am really impressed by this move. Honestly, none of these additions (except maybe this one) seems like anything close to major, but in sum, they could easily add up to several extra wins at a minimal cost.
Z’s currently doing a tremendous job at improving the team while maintaining the flexibility to afford someone major, whether that’s through signing Fielder or trading for someone else.
Looks like a good move to me. Almost no risk with the possibility of locking up a #3 starter. Could allow you to move a guy like Vargas in a package for a bat. Does anyone think that the M’s may have an interest in Cespedes if Fielder fall through?
We got a good deal here, but they dug themselves a big hole with the Johjima extension.
God I missed Johjima the last two seasons. He had a great season in Japan in 2010. Just compare Joh:
2006-2009: .268/.310/.411
to the Post-Johjima era at catcher:
2010-2011: .220/.259/.369
And that doesn’t even count his vastly better defense over what we had the last two seasons.
I’m very torn on what the M’s should do with the pitching surplus.
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Michael Pineda
3. Jason Vargas
4. Hisashi Iwakuma
5. Blake Beaven
6. Charlie Furbush
7. Danny Hultzen
8. James Paxton
9. Erasmo Ramirez
10. Potentially another SP such as Jamie Moyer, Paul Maholm, or someone else….
At some point in 2012 we could have 10 SP ready to be pitching at the Major League level. Could we keep Hultzen, Paxton, Ramirez all in the minors all season? Sure. Could Furbush be a middle/long relief guy? Sure.
So what in the hell should we do???
We have to upgrade our offense. If we aren’t going to do that this offseason then we need to trade Michael Pineda. I hate to do it. I’d love to have a 1,2 punch of Felix and Pineda. But Pineda’s stock couldn’t be any higher. If we haven’t upgraded the offense by the trade deadline or don’t intend to then we need to trade Pineda. Period.
Ed: “onetreehugger: Pretty sure Dave was talking to dantheman.”
Maybe they are one and the same, since they seem to share the same weird anti-Ichiro (or anti-Japan) agenda.
Although I could care less about such bashers and their agendas.
Rationally speaking, what a nice signing. As others have post, the Mariners were able to get Iwakuma for much lower money than expected. 1.5 million guaranteed is a real steal. As Dave post, that’s less than what guys like Yuni got. The Mariners did well.
Kazinski:
God I missed Johjima the last two seasons. He had a great season in Japan in 2010. Just compare Joh:
2006-2009: .268/.310/.411
to the Post-Johjima era at catcher:
2010-2011: .220/.259/.369
And that doesn’t even count his vastly better defense over what we had the last two seasons.
Fully agree, I miss Johjima too. Rob Johnson and Olivo have been pretty bad.
Buster Olney was quoted today, in his “insider” column as saying:
“The team most interested in Fielder — and most willing to pay big — is the Mariners. The question is whether or not he wants to play in Seattle.”
It’s the “pay big” part that makes me happy rumors are by definition NOT… NOT!… facts. C’mon Washington Nationals, help a brutha out!!!
(*gulp*)
(update)
Thanks to Jeff Sullivan for correcting a misleading ‘edit’ by MLBTradeRumors…
I was quoting MLB Trade Rumors above, and don’t actually have ESPN Insider… Jeff noticed the same quote I did, and digging further (accessing the actual Insider posting) noticed where Olney ACTUALLY said:
“but the most interested team — the team most willing to pay big — MIGHT be the Seattle Mariners.” (the all caps “might” put there by me)
Might is a pretty big word in this case. The difference between speculating and stating something as a fact. So, with a greater body of evidence saying Z won’t overpay, I feel MUCH better after reading what Sullivan wrote.
Thanks, Jeff!
“”God I missed Johjima the last two seasons. He had a great season in Japan…”"
Let’s be real.
He was good in 2006/2007. He was terrible in 2008 .227/.227/.332 (409)PA, and not so good in 2009 .247/.296/.406 (258)PA. His defense took a dive in 2008 also.
Not that the catching has gotten better but remember that he was 33, he was regressing, and he was due 8 million a year for a couple years.
Olivo (33) .224/.253/.388 in 2011 for 2.5 million. Not impressive, but 5.5 million dollars cheaper.
I miss Dan Wilson.
I keep seeing articles about Soriano possibly getting moved. Can’t help but wonder if there’s any chance in hell, that Figgins could be swapped for him. I wont hold my breath, but it makes a little sense. Lot of money owed to Soriano this year.
^I should add, that in a swap like that, the Cubs would obviously have to eat some salary. $54 million is still owed to him over the next 3 years (and we thought the Figgins contract was bad!).