Why I’m Not As High On Montero’s Bat As Most
I know, I wrote up a Montero piece on FanGraphs yesterday and just linked to it here, and now I’m doing it again, but this won’t be a habit, I promise. Most of my Mariners-related content is still going to go here – I just decided to use Montero (a nationally prominent guy) to make somewhat larger arguments about the sport. The pieces are about him, but also about how we value players and prospects, and so they were a good fit for over there.
Anyway, here’s the piece I wrote over there today, which essentially explains why I’m not yet sold that Montero is certainly going to turn into a franchise hitter. The potential for that kind of performance is there, but history suggests that perhaps a Paul Konerko career path might be more realistic. While it’s certainly valid to be excited about what Montero could bring to the line-up, we should also be realistic about the range of possible outcomes. He could be great, more likely he’ll be pretty good, but he could also suck. Similar players have done all three. He’s probably going to be a good hitter, maybe a great one, but we should understand what risks he brings to the plate as well. The M’s didn’t trade Pineda for a sure thing.