Game 25, Mariners at Rays

Dave · May 1, 2012 at 12:32 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

Noesi vs Moore, 4:05 pm.

The M’s went with the better option, and Mike Carp is expected to join the team in Tampa Bay today, replacing Miguel Olivo on the roster. This means that Montero and Jaso will now split the catching duties, and I’d expect Carp to mostly get DH time until he shows that he’s completely healthy. Because the Mariners are facing a lefty tonight, Carp is not in the line-up, but he’ll probably be available to pinch-hit and I’d expect him to start at DH tomorrow.

Hector Noesi will get the start for the Mariners, and he’s going to need a good performance pretty soon or we’ll have to start talking about whether his rotation spot should be in jeopardy. With Evan Longoria on the shelf, the Rays line-up takes a significant hit, so this should be an opportunity for him to show that he deserves to stick in the rotation. One interesting thing to note on Noesi:

Vs RHB: 15.4% BB%, 12.8% K%
Vs LHB: 2.4% BB%, 17.1% K%

Noesi’s best pitch is his change-up, and it’s been the only pitch he can throw for a swinging strike in the early part of the season. Since the change-up is more effective against opposite handed hitters, Noesi’s running a 7/1 K/BB ratio against lefties, but since he relies more on his fastball and breaking ball against RHBs, he’s posted a 5/6 mark against righties. The development of his breaking ball is going to be vital for Noesi’s long term success, as he needs a swing-and-miss pitch against right-handed batters. The Rays will run a bunch of left-handed bats out there tonight, so Noesi should be able to use his change-up often. The key will be how well he’s able to attack guys like B.J. Upton when he’s not able to lean on his change-up.

Ackley, DH
Liddi, 3B
Ichiro, RF
Smoak, 1B
Montero, C
Seager, 2B
Wells, LF
Saunders, CF
Ryan, SS


115 Responses to “Game 25, Mariners at Rays”

  1. msfanmike on May 1st, 2012 6:48 pm

    Always have used a 2 for 1 rule of thumb for runs scored per hits. For every two hits, your team should have a run. Approximately. Not a hard and fast rule, but my rule and my thumb.

    What kind of follow through is Carp using? God, that looked awful – twice. Plew!

  2. MrZDevotee on May 1st, 2012 6:49 pm

    I tried… That sucks, only 3 hits given up and we lose by 2 runs…

    And those K’s in the 9th are a little ugly.

  3. terryoftacoma on May 1st, 2012 6:50 pm

    Keep in mind that we just saw Kawasaki and Carp pitch hit and not Jaso. I think it speaks volumes has to how Wedge plans on using Jaso.

  4. MrZDevotee on May 1st, 2012 6:52 pm

    Is it wrong to say “something seems dangerously normal about the last 2 losses” so early in the season? Harkens back to the 2nd half of last season, where we competed pretty good, but just didn’t really have enough to get to the 9th and finish out ballgames.

    Although, granted, I didn’t watch the games I just read the recaps and caught the 9th tonight.

  5. msfanmike on May 2nd, 2012 9:32 am

    “something seems dangerously normal about the last 2 losses”

    No doubt about it. The game Friday night was a 1-2 times per year occurrence. The game last night … very familiar in taste, quality and texture. All part of the growing process, I suppose. How much longer the homes fans will tolerate said growing process is anybody’s guess. Perhaps the next Ichiro bobblehead giveway night will shed some light on their feelings, if “smoakamotive” night, does not provide that type of insight later this week.

    The team is 0-30 with runners in scoring position over its last 3 games. Is there a more pronounced adjective to use than “abysmal”? Bad luck certainly isn’t the answer.

    If there is a better descriptor than “abysmal,” please – someone … use it. My mastery of the English language is somewhat limited with its ability to describe the recent rate of success.

    And, someone other than Ryan – please work a damn walk. Enough already, for Phooking Phrack sake! The opposing teams know the Mariners are going to hack, so there is no reason to pitch around anybody. They also know the team does not have a plethora of accomplished hitters, so again – there is no reason to pitch around anybody. The advance scouts know this. The teams approach has made the opposing teams job even easier than it used to be … and that IS SAYING SOMETHING

    Post script: Wells did have a real good AB last night (10 or 11 pitches). I can’t remember how it turned out, but I could probably guess. Anyway, making the pitcher work resulted in the pitcher having to work … and having to leave early from the game. Not that it mattered, because most any teams bullpen is enough to mow down the Mariner lineup, but it was a real good AB. There were a couple others too, but certainly not enough – and it has become an ever growing problem.

  6. MrZDevotee on May 2nd, 2012 9:53 am

    Yeah, Ryan had a walk yesterday (the only one)… The fact that he’s walking regularly leaves no excuses for anyone else, because it’s not like anyone is carefully pitching around the guy. If Brendan Ryan can put up a .320+ OBP, everyone else on the roster should be near that level.

    And I think Smoak needs to get a medical waiver to smoke pot… ANYTHING to clear his head, because his talent level at the plate is obviously higher than Mario Mendoza’s. He’s scrapping and flailing and lunging at pitches. Just his quote after yesterday’s game screams “I’m flailing!” He ranted about “can’t just say it’s ‘early’ we need to be getting it done… Everyday… That’s what winner’s do…” Which is an attitude I love, but if I attach it to his current performance it seems to translate to: “**** I suck… What the hell is wrong with me… I’m letting this team down… Everyone is depending on me.”

    I think it may be time to give Montero a shot at #4 and move Smoak down to 6th or so. Montero is a true hitter, and I really don’t think he’d feel overmatched in the 4 hole. To him it seems like his at bat is a competition between him and the BALL, doens’t matter the pitcher or the situation. He’s gonna get the best of that ball, if he can.

    There is, though, a tiny voice inside me saying “relax… 9 hits and 1 run, how often is that gonna happen… we’re hitting the ball pretty well, just not at the right times.”

    Regardless, Figgins days have to be numbered, because if we’re not gonna compete, it’s not gonna matter how much we’re paying him… it’ll make more sense to give experience to someone ELSE who fits the future plans. Or hell, can Jaso play the outfield.

    Just to be funny:

    Ichiro RF
    Ackley RF
    Liddi 3B
    Montero C
    Carp DH
    Smoak 1B
    Jaso LF (I kid)
    Ryan SS
    Seager 2B (in the “2nd leadoff position)

  7. vj on May 2nd, 2012 10:21 am

    “Keep in mind that we just saw Kawasaki and Carp pitch hit and not Jaso. I think it speaks volumes has to how Wedge plans on using Jaso.”

    I don’t think it does. If he uses Jaso as a pinch-hitter, he’s without a backup catcher. Most managers want to avoid that.

  8. msfanmike on May 2nd, 2012 10:21 am

    Personally, and only if it were possible, I’d go with:

    Real # 3 hitter

    But alas, we have no real #3 hitter and there is nobody projected to be good enough to place there for a while. Montero could slide there, but then we get the #4 chasm. Ordinarily, a guy with some ability to run also fits into the #3 hole (and we know that ain’t Monty). Ichiro will have to hold down the fort until that problem is resolved. I like Guti in the #2 spot if/when he ever comes back and is playing at a productive level. A real, quality, productive with power #3 hitter would sure help, but ……..

    With Ackley in the leadoff spot and Ichiro hitting #2, it would probably require the Manager to put the game into motion more often. Ichiro might find even more holes that way. Or, hit into more DP’s. Hard to say … but I think he is talented enough to figure it out. Ackley BTW: needs to pick it up, but there is not a lot of worry around him at the moment, because talent and athletic ability usually prevail. We know he has it. We don’t know that Smoak does. No positional flexibility. No quick reactions. No real evidence of athleticism. Not sure what he is, exactly.

  9. Westside guy on May 2nd, 2012 10:31 am

    I’d like to see Ichiro moved back into the leadoff spot, with Ackley batting #2 – just because Ackley seems more likely to hit with some punch, and therefore perhaps a bit more likely to drive Ichiro in than Ichiro is to drive Ackley in. Also, having Ichiro on base ahead of him might force Ackley to be a little more patient at the plate… something I thought he was, until this year and Wedgie’s influence. 😉

  10. msfanmike on May 2nd, 2012 10:36 am

    Hard to argue with either one, actually. I think I lean toward Ackley in the leadoff spot because that is more geared toward the teams “future”. Six of one, half a dozen ….

    I would like to see the best 4 hitters have the most opportunity to hit. Whomever they are. Do we have 4?

    Also, I just realized this – Figgins is still on the team. Crap, I hate it when I remember that. Addition by subtraction time – is fast approaching. If Jaso is going to rot on the bench becuase he is the backup C and Wedge can’t risk losing him and doesn’t want to wrap his mind around the late inning potential of losing the DH, I would rather see a third Catcher brought up and let Figgins rot on the bench. Or, resume whatever remains of his career rotting on someone else’s bench.

    A third catcher could also mean one less man in the pen. If given a choice, I would go with one less man in the pen. Based on how Wedge uses the pen, there is at least .9 of a roster spot being wasted in the pen, right now.

  11. MrZDevotee on May 2nd, 2012 12:27 pm

    Isn’t Iwakuma ALREADY “one less man in the pen”… We could send him down, and since neither he nor Jaso gets used, Jaso could be the “one less man in the pen, too”– he could cover TWO unused players positions with one guy. Makes perfect sense somehow in the Wedge world. It only takes ONE guy to fill both “I won’t use him ’cause he’s not my type of player” roles.

    (totally unrelated, other than a sports related story that just came on the air– Junior Seau killed himself… Sad stuff, 3 kids left behind)

  12. Westside guy on May 2nd, 2012 12:32 pm

    MrZ, you may be on to something…

    (sad about Seau though)

  13. msfanmike on May 2nd, 2012 1:41 pm

    Seau … go figure? WTF, Junior

    I kinda like Mr Z’s one stop shop-gap filler do it all (i.e. nothing) employee.

    In regard to the FTE (Full Time Equivalent) conundrum: I equate Wedge’s use of his roster to having authority to hire a full time person, but only putting them to work for 2 hours per week. He is eating the FTE and getting very little for it. Yes, yes I (and everybody else) knows – that bullpen pieces are not supposed to be used “full time.” I am just trying to equate what Wedge has done to this point – with the pseudo real world in which I exist for 40 hours per week; and to make an attempt to better understand it for what it is.

    I am probably a bit too old to completely “appreciate” 48% of the roster being dedicated to pitchers … with at least one of those pitchers throwing 2 innings per month.

    If the team could somehow use Figgins to cover the following roles simultaneously, I might be in favor of seeing him stick around:

    12th man in pen
    3rd catcher
    Pinch Runner
    16th inning defensive replacement
    21st inning pinch hitter

  14. Westside guy on May 2nd, 2012 1:55 pm

    Looking at today’s roster – I think Wedgie has forgotten he has a left-handed catcher again.

  15. msfanmike on May 2nd, 2012 2:04 pm

    ^what’s new.

    Jaso is his safety (can’t ever let the guy get hurt or play) valve. Jaso must be a really, really shitty catcher. Afterall, isn’t that why Jack went out and got him prior to the Montero trade … since Jack knows nothing about player evals.

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