RISP Hitting

Dave · May 15, 2012 at 9:10 am · Filed Under Mariners 

So, recently, Eric Wedge has made news by talking about how Ichiro isn’t producing enough out of the three hole, despite the fact that he’s been one of the team’s best hitters to date. In order to keep this narrative going in the face of factual evidence to the contrary, people have started to point out Ichiro’s batting line with runners in scoring position, because of course we should be making judgments about a guy based on 39 plate appearances.

Anyway, it’s true that Ichiro hasn’t been great with RISP this year. Here’s how his situational splits break down:

Bases Empty: .298/.330/.393, .318 wOBA
Men On Base: .281/.338/.391, .314 wOBA
RISP: .206/.282/.324, .257 wOBA

Now, here are Ichiro’s career situational split numbers:

Bases Empty: .326/.356/.427, .344 wOBA
Men On Base: .316/.392/.396, .330 wOBA
RISP: .317/.424/394, .331 wOBA

You can look at 39 plate appearances and decide that Ichiro can’t hit with men in scoring position, or you can look at 1,500 plate appearances and realize that he can. It’s really up to you, but what kind of conclusion you draw says a lot about your understanding of how the game actually works. People extrapolating from Ichiro’s 2012 RISP numbers either don’t have a grasp of how to actually use numbers or they’re pushing a predetermined agenda and won’t let facts get in their way. In some cases, both statements might be true.

But, hey, if you insist that 2012 situational data is meaningful, here’s some other names of guys who aren’t fit to hit in the middle of a batting order based on their RISP data to date:

Jose Bautista: .203 wOBA
Justin Upton: .209 wOBA
B.J. Upton: .215 wOBA
Jesus Montero: .229 wOBA
Troy Tulowitzki: .234 wOBA
Travis Hafner: .235 wOBA
Justin Morneau: .259 wOBA
Robinson Cano: .261 wOBA

Media members – you don’t have to believe whatever Eric Wedge tells you. He’s wrong an awful lot. Think for yourself, look up the facts, and don’t just repeat his ramblings.


55 Responses to “RISP Hitting”

  1. stevemotivateir on May 16th, 2012 10:04 pm

    You still don’t get the points that were made about RBI’s and go-ahead runs. Do you really need to hear it again?

    “If Ichiro is NOT trying to hit for power, what is he doing in the number 3 spot?”

    He’s trying to do the same thing he’s always done. Get a hit, stay out of DP’s. And that’s the same thing he would do anywhere in the line-up.

    Thanks for the tips on arguing. I was well aware of what I was saying. Did it occur to you, that what you were saying was insulting, or that you brought it on yourself? You think the people here know nothing about baseball, or the Mariners, and YOU have it all figured out? You think there might be a reason multiple people have opposed your comments and nobody’s supported you?

    Consider the possibility that you might be wrong, that other people might have valid points, and show respect without the arrogance, and you’ll be shown the same respect.

  2. stevemotivateir on May 16th, 2012 10:40 pm

    One more thing…. if the issue wasn’t about Ichiro, or replacing him, why not just call-out the front-office specifically, rather than single-out the best hitter and outfielder on the team? I’m not buyin’ it.

  3. GLS on May 17th, 2012 12:29 pm

    OBP by position in batting order (2012):
    1 297
    2 253
    3 337
    4 244
    5 338
    6 293
    7 259
    8 273
    9 290

    These numbers suuuuucccckkkkk!

    You know, you can toss around ideas about where players should be hitting in the batting order and what not, and you can try to point the finger at Ichiro and say he’s the problem because he isn’t hitting well with RISP, but really, just take a look at these numbers. Doesn’t this pretty much tell the whole story?

    Ralph_Malph, thanks for putting these up. If you’re still paying attention to this thread, I’d love to know where these numbers came from.

  4. dantheman on May 18th, 2012 8:06 pm

    “I’m not buyin’ it.”

    Better talk to Steve Kelley at the Times because he certainly is: “Doesn’t (Eric Wedge) know that Ichiro is one of the least productive good hitters in the history of the game?”

  5. stevemotivateir on May 18th, 2012 10:17 pm

    Keep talkin’ genius, you almost have someone convinced.

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