Game 50, Angels at Mariners
Noesi vs. C.J. Wilson, 1:10 pm
Last season, Fangraphs had Noesi at a 1.22 GB/FB ratio in his limited time with the Yankees. If this was something that he was consciously working on, knowing the conditions he was going to be facing in Yankees Stadium, then that was probably a good idea, but it is not representative of his career arc. According to MiLB.com, Noesi never managed a full season with more ground outs than air outs (MiLB.com includes pop ups, etc with their air outs). The closest he got was 0.93 in 2009. The worst he had was his brief stint in the International League last year when he was at 0.67, which is the same mark that he sits at right now (48.7% FB, if you prefer that metric). Given that the Angels have been knocking the ball over the fence a few times in this series, there’s a legitimate concern that this could turn ugly in a hurry. You’d also presume that with such tendencies, the Mariners would really want to bring their “A” outfield out to give themselves as much of a chance as possible.
I guess for this game, we’re going to have to hope that C.J. Wilson doesn’t have his good command and that the Mariners are able to draw some walks against him and do a bit of damage. His ERA right now is much lower than his tRA or FIP, so there is a chance for some kind of regression. On the other hand, Mariners.
In rare good news, Guti has been cleared to go down and work out in extended spring training, and will get his rehab assignment sometime after that. Don’t expect anything soon. He didn’t really get spring training the first time around, so this could take a while.