Game 52, Mariners at Rangers
Jason Vargas vs. Scott Feldman, 5:05
The Rangers signed Roy Oswalt today, so despite the injury to Neftali Feliz and the time Oswalt will need to build his strength, you’ve got to figure Feldman’s moving back to the bullpen in a month or so. Perhaps that would’ve happened anyway, as he’s given up more walks than K’s so far. He’s presumably still smarting from his loss to the M’s in Seattle – the Liddi Grand Slam game.
Because Wedge is so fond of match-ups, not even an ugly slump is going to keep Alex Liddi out of the line-up today. In fact, the line-up is pretty similar to the one that beat Feldman a week ago. The downside is Liddi’s back in LF, with Seager at 3B. Jaso catches today and Jesus Montero gets a start as the DH.
Jason Vargas is enjoying his best season in the majors, with an improved strikeout rate, low walks and a career-low xFIP. At the same time, he’s giving up more contact than he ever has – it hasn’t hurt him thanks to an absurdly low BABIP. Why so much contact? I really don’t know, but it looks like he’s using his change-up a bit less this season. The change-up is, of course, his best pitch by some margin.
So he just needs to throw it more? No, not necessarily. We don’t (ok, *I* don’t) know many change-ups are too many. We don’t really know how to game-theory his arsenal and what percentage would lead to the best overall results. I think too often fans just want pitchers to throw their best pitch, and the logical extension of that argument is that everyone should throw their best pitch 100% of the time. That’s only worked for Mariano Rivera. Really, I’d just like to understand the thinking and what Vargas wants to achieve (this doesn’t seem to be related to catchers, as his CH% is about the same whoever’s behind the dish). This isn’t just an attempt to placate the regression monster – I think this is an interesting research area, albeit one that may be best left to teams with their proprietary data and access to players and coaches. Is Vargas trying to limit pitches per plate appearance to get deeper into games? If so, it doesn’t appear to be working. Is Vargas trying to generate more weak contact? Tough to say if it’s working, but the folks who pay for Hit FX might know.
Anyway, here’s a line-up for you:
1: Ackley (2B)
2: Liddi (LF)
3: Ichiro (RF)
4: Montero (DH)
5: Seager (3B)
6: Smoak (1B)
7: Jaso (C)
8: Saunders (CF)
9: Ryan (SS)
SP: Jason Vargas
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139 Responses to “Game 52, Mariners at Rangers”
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Okay, most of the guys I’d want in the lineup are in this lineup – so I’m going to take a deep breath (not to mention Dave’s advice) and ignore the batting order.
Yup, I’m going to ignore the fact that Liddi is in the #2 spot against a right-handed pitcher. Sure am. You betcha.
Oswalt signed a minor league contract?! Man, the rich just keep getting richer…
Forget about where liddi is in the order… why is liddi in the order at all? I get that he hit a grand slam off Feldman, but watching his at bats over the last few days since then has been the most frustrating thing about games!
He looks utterly lost and just keeps putting the same swing on every two strike curveball and it results in k after k after k. I think he needs to go to tacoma for a while, learn how to play left, and relearn how to hit a curveball.
At least Figgins and Olivo are on the bench…
It’s pretty bad when the positive points include players not participating.
It’s not even Liddi’s bat that scares me the most with tonight’s game…. It’s that he’s in left. I don’t know if Wedge got the memo, but the Rangers are known to hit a ball or two, deep.
Seriously though, why is he learning left field in the big leagues? While I can understand wanting to convert him to there eventually, why go through these struggles at the big league level? The kid is 23 and didn’t destroy AAA last year so it’s not like he’s so far beyond that level that it’s pointless.
He has the unfortunate situation of his playing time coming at the expense almost completely of two of our best building blocks (Seager and Ackley) and he hasn’t shown enough to be worth booting either of them out of the lineup. I like him but I think going to Tacoma would benefit him more than learning at the big league level with sporadic playing time.
Seriously though, why is he learning left field in the big leagues? While I can understand wanting to convert him to there eventually, why go through these struggles at the big league level? The kid is 23 and didn’t destroy AAA last year so it’s not like he’s so far beyond that level that it’s pointless.
He has the unfortunate situation of his playing time coming at the expense almost completely of two of our best building blocks (Seager and Ackley) and he hasn’t shown enough to be worth booting either of them out of the lineup. I like him but I think going to Tacoma would benefit him more than learning at the big league level with sporadic playing time.
Think Jason Vargas is traded, a month from now? Possibly Millwood also?
I thought for sure Vargas would be as recently as two weeks ago, but now I’m starting to lean towards no. I just don’t think he would net enough in return during the season to do it. I think if we wait until the off season after the top couple options sign, we can get as much and we don’t need to rush anyone extra to the big leagues.
Hey, Liddi didn’t strike out!
Vargas is probably one of those guys that Jack’s just sitting back, entertaining offers on.
OK…I want a “tracer” thingy that shows the umpire’s strike zone overlaid on the actual tracer…I’d love to see when the ump is squeezing or opposite. Thoughts?
Take notes, Olivo!
I’d like to see that too, WTF.
Or at least I’d like to see the tracer on a more consistent basis.
I like the At Bat 12 app on the iPad, cause it shows each pitch, etc…I’ve never seen the ups strike zone though.
I know they are graded by a group of umpires, but I’d like to see what they are using to grade, what happens when they make a game full of crappy calls, etc.
JASO!!
JASO!!!
Jinks!
That will be my first purchase after I get an iPad.
If they’re making a game full of crappy calls, I don’t really think it’s crappy. Well I guess I should say if they’re consistently calling the same “crap” the same way I don’t think it’s bad. If a guy is consistently tight, or consistently gives pitches below the knees, I don’t think it’s so bad. It’s more the inconsistency that kills.
UZR talk: Progress!!!!
“NO ERRROORRRRSS!”: Never mind
Somewhere in that dugout, I get the feeling that Mike Carp will lose about 12 pounds tonight sweating bullets. Below average defenders who are playing sporadically and out of position, while hitting #8 when they do play – have a firm grip on nothing. It’s sad to see, but he has not yet been able to make any kind of case for himself and it has to be gnawing on him. I hope it doesn’t ruin him.
Seager!
Thats what I meant by “crappy”.
In strange managerial “strategies” (see prior thread), I’ve never understood the Liddi love fest from the Mariners.
With Smoak and Montero struggling, I see giving either a day off to get Liddi a few at bats, especially against a lefty. But actually trying to find ways to get Liddi in the lineup by sitting Ackley or a major league left fielder is crazy. He strikes out 40% of the time and his OPS only looks good compared to the Mariners collection of AAA hitters.
Yeah … Seager is a pretty nice player to have around. Hopefully his mini slump is over.
Totally agree, Mike. I hope Carp is taking notes on Jaso.
Do it again, Jaso.
That’s not what I was referring to…
Geez, Sims is an idiot.
hahahah, love it when the broadcasters are fooled!
Sims, don’t call it GONE! Until Ichiro gives up on it.
Sims is ALWAYS fooled!
That should be the obvious clue, WTF! When Ichiro is still facing the field, there’s probably a good chance he has a play on it!
Ryan! Nice!
Nice job of laying off that pitch
spoke too soon
Make ‘em pay, Monty!
Lets go Jesus!
That’ll work!
Really would have liked to see Seager take a strike there. I know he was looking for a pitch he could drive and thought that was it, but Ross had missed twice and one of them by a long ways. I’d want to see him prove he can throw two strikes in a row.
Wow, how was that not called a strike?
That missed strike call better not cost us
The ump is still stunned from Beltre’s mistake.
Man, blue is all over the place right now.
Wow, looking at that tracer makes this look like a very frustrating at-bat. Don’t want to jinx it but it looks a lot like the Delabar at-bat where he almost had to come across the middle to get a strike.
^understatement
Crap.
The first pitch to Gentry was a strike, too.
Great DP!
wow, great D
Oh, man, we lucked out after that bobble.
GREAT play by Ackley, making that throw.
I can understand when borderline pitches aren’t called strikes, if there’s consistency, but tonight…. he’s missing pitches Clearly in the zone.
Just throwing this out there, the Orioles are starting Wilson Betemit in LF and Steve Tolleson (who is this?) at third base today. Think we could interest them in a guy who can play both of those positions??
Also, I think Ackley was the star of that play not Ryan. I appreciate that Ryan is great defensively but that was a spectacular turn by Dustin.
haha Marcus
That one was a no-doubter off the bat and yet it took Sims the whole time to figure it out, yet the one that looked off the end of the bat right away he called gone right away.
Carp couldn’t have a better set of pitches to make contact with…only one even close to out of the zone.
Hey, a base running error. Stunning.
In the past two days, we’ve had about 4 base running blunders.
That’s a really bad mistake there by Ackley. Seager on deck and he’s been swinging the bat really well today. Shame for the inning to end there.
Also, judging by who’s warming up, it looks like Wilhelmsen is our “closer” for the day if it gets there.
Bad choice to take Vargas out. Let him finish it out. Kelley will blow it in this batter. Two run homer, mark my words.
Whew…glad to be wrong.
I really thought that ball was going out, just barely stayed in.
Props to Seager! Nearly knocked it out. Funny that Sims stayed silent this time
Seager!
Sims speechless?
Smoak!
Nice Smoak!
Yeah, G-man. You could tell he was holding off from calling anything til he knew for sure. No excitement in his voice.
Please don’t stuff this up Datz.
Jaso comes through again!
You know for all the old school things Wedge seems to embrace “clutch” doesn’t seem to be one because Jaso has defined that and it hasn’t earned him much more playing time.
Predicting a sac bunt from Saunders here!
Jaso is hot tonight!
Maybe Datz learned?? And if Jaso doesn’t get more playing time, there’s something wrong.
I’d like to see a hit & run.
Haha! Condor!
I don’t think we should hit and run. Way too slow on the bases, if he misses (which Saunders does a decent amount) we run into an out.
Yeah Saunders!
Jaso isn’t slow. Smoak was on 3rd. If Smoak was on 2nd, I certainly wouldn’t have wanted that. Not that it matters now, cause they didn’t do it.
Come on Ryan!
Smoak was on second, otherwise he would have scored on that hit…
Way to go Wedge, no bunting!
Oh, did I miss that? I’ve been peakin’ at the tv from the kitchen! I thought Smoak was on third.
Yeah, I see Smoak IS on 3rd now. Bad read on my part.
Thanks Elvis!
Nice!
Yeah Smoak was on second for sure. That’s why I figured they would bunt. First and second no outs is just asking Wedge to do it. Like WTF earlier, I’m very happy to be wrong.
What a break! Smoak intimidated Andrus with his speed down the line
Sorry, I replied to yours before I had seen that you already noticed.
Good AB’s this inning
Ack attack!
I know it’s an extremely small sample size, but did you see Ackley’s bases loaded stats right there? 7-9 with 13 ribbies?? Jeez! Make it 8-10
haha, no worries. I’m grateful for the explanation. Everything makes sense now. Tryna do a few things at once here!
Nice AB by Ackley!
Datz is being conservative tonight!
Yeah I saw that! Career 8-10 with bases loaded for Dustin.
Yeah, it is kind of a surprise Wedge didn’t put the bunt on.
Ackley!
Carp!
I know the Rangers aren’t the best team defensively but normally they are at least average. We have had some serious breaks today.
Wow. WOW. Ok, I gotta sit down and enjoy this inning!
That was a close play at second.
Ooohhhh Ackley was out there for sure.
Will Ichiro ground into DP?
Well based upon his previous results with RISP I’m sure he couldn’t get a hit here. I mean look at his stats over the last 3 weeks!!!
We’ll call it even for the non-strike calls with Vargas.
What more proof do we need that Ichiro can’t come through in the clutch?!? I mean a sac fly? He gets hits all the time but can’t right then??
Wow…Ryan going again! Living dangerous!
Sometimes, everything just works.
Marcus, fewer question marks, more stats to support your assertion.
I know Seager has been struggling (before today) but I’ve been really impressed by the at-bats he’s putting up for the most part. He’s not pressing trying to hit the first strike he sees (I’m looking at you Alex Liddi) but waiting on one he can drive and working quite a few walks.
Paul I was just kidding, sorry if I didn’t make that clear haha.
If this were the Twins, or the Rockies, I’d feel sorry for them. But the Rangers….
Jeez, that half-inning, the Rangers played like – like the Mariners.
Steve, I agree, hard to feel sorry for them.
This is about 3 or 4 games’ worth of hits for the Mariners.
Sorry Marcus, missed you were being satirical.
So I know that UZR needs a larger sample size to be considered too viable, but Carp is on pace for a very respectable 10.4 UZR over 150 games, and Figgins is on pace for -42.5 in Left… The eye test seems to back up that he’s a horrible left fielder as well.. So why is he our defensive replacement??
^Because Wedge hates Wells?
Do we really have a regular left fielder? Seems more that we have 3 back-ups filling in for Saunders, while he fills-in for Guti.
Ad because Wells is in Tacoma? But I get your meaning.
And for a larger sample size, over his career Figgins has had a -28.7 UZR in left field. In other words, he’s never been a good outfielder so why must we pretend like he is? Oh yeah, gotta get all the value we can out of that contract right?
Liddi is inexperienced, Carp is slow, Figgins is meh.
so, yeah.
@WTF
The point was that Wells is in Tacoma because Wedge hates him! Kidding of course.
I understand that we don’t have a “good” left fielder and completely agree. We have a 3b masquerading as a LF, a 1B who tries his best, and a utility guy with no arm. I’m just saying we should be able to recognize at the very least that Figgins isn’t good enough to warrant inserting strictly for his defense.
Also, I’m still bitter that he’s still here and Wells is in Tacoma so this is adding to why I’m arguing so vehemently.
Steve, I gotcha…
Wow, Halladay’s out 6-8 weeks.
Totally get it and agree Marcus.
This game has been the shot of positivity I so desperately needed. The next step is for them to spread the runs out more evenly.
Nice job Saunders.
Keep wondering if Zunino will be available for the Mariners on the 6th. The more I see on him, the more I like him.
I would bet a substantial sum of money that Zunino is available. I believe that Appel will definitely be one of the top two picks and then Buxton, Correa, Gausman, and Zimmer all have as good or better chance of filling other spot as Zunino.
If I had to guess I would say the Astros go Appel and the Twins are too tempted to pass on Buxton despite not being their ideal fit.
I would guess the Astros go for Buxton and the Twins go for Appel. But I don’t think Correa or Zimmer are likely to go ahead of Zunino. Maybe Gausman.
I don’t think they’re “likely” to go ahead of him. But the Astros were reportedly “blown away” by Correa’s workout with them and could view him as the highest upside. The Twins would like to go with a college arm if possible so if Appel goes one, I would think that they’d be torn between Gausman, Zimmer, and Buxton.
Now all things equal, I’m not saying those guys should go ahead of Zunino, I’m just saying with the board the way it is, I would be more surprised to see Zunino gone at our spot than Correa or Gausman, and about equally surpised to see Zimmer gone.
It will be fun to see. I was convinced the Mariners would have Rendon or Cole at this time last year. Hultzen being on the map, but not likely. Ya never know!
Very true. I really am far from certain and I think there are about 4 possibilities for us but I could be entirely off.
Imagine if Zunino was drafted… Do we end up with a Montero/Jaso/Zunino rotation at C and DH? That doesn’t sound bad!
I don’t think we’d see Zunino this year. I think he would start in either High Dessert or Jackson and maybe moves up to Tacoma by the end of the year. I think he’ll be given every chance to make the roster next year but I don’t he plays for us this year.
Again, I could be entirely wrong but that’s my guess.
Oh, I doubt we’d even see him next year. Maybe in September. But 2014, sure. Of course Jaso could be gone by then. Just speculating a little!
Oh if we’re talking that far in the future, I believe that we’d have Zunino as our catcher with Montero getting the occasional start but being mainly a DH. I’d also guess that we have a third catcher (possibly Jaso, perhaps one of our 29 catchers in our minor league system) so that we avoid the DH in the field issue that everyone has been so worried about this year.
Smoak!!