Game 82, Orioles at Mariners
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Jason Hammel, 7:10pm
Iwakuma makes his first MLB start tonight after injuries and ineffectiveness have pushed aside his competition. As Dave points out, Iwakuma’s been very consistent by xFIP; what’s varied considerably has been his success on balls in play and his HR rate. Now, it’s quite clear that HR rate is much more variable than what’s measured in xFIP (essentially, walks and strikeouts with a league average HR rate), but it’s also not yet clear that league average is the mean we should regress Iwakuma’s HR rate to. In the absence of any alternative that we could support with data, looking at him through the xFIP prism is the sensible option.
And yet…Iwakuma’s shown that he’s got a legitimate MLB-caliber weapon in his split-finger fastball. His two-seam fastball/sinker is also a solid pitch – we don’t have a lot of data, of course, but he’s able to rack up ground balls at an impressive clip. The problem’s his four-seam fastball. He’s thrown it a bit more than 1/3 of the time, but you’d be hard pressed to say why. It doesn’t get grounders and it doesn’t miss bats. Given we know so little about Iwakuma, I’m open to an argument that throwing this pitch makes his other pitches more effective – that he needs a four-seam or rising fastball to maximize the impact of his split-finger pitch. But as it stands, he’s got two decent pitches and what seems like an irrational attachment to a third, minor-league one. Right now, he’s getting Steve Delabar-like results, though again, he simply hasn’t faced enough batters to know if he’s going to be homer prone long term.
Still, while he’s facing the O’s in a park that’s seriously suppressed home runs, the Orioles have hit the 4th most HRs in baseball thanks to a number of high-K, high-HR hitters. Iwakuma’s splitter isn’t as effective against righties, but he’s got a slider that’s a lot more advanced than Delabar’s, so he’s got options.
Jason Hammel came over from Colorado in exchange for Jeremy Guthrie in what’s looking like an incredibly lop-sided trade. Hammel’s swing-and-miss stuff, which was AWOL last year, is back in a big way. He’s running a career high K rate, which then drives a career low FIP. He’s been excellent all year, with the exception of his last start, in which he gave up 8 runs in 3 1/3 innings against the Angels. One big reason for his transformation is the development of a two-seam fastball that he didn’t have in Colorado. His velocity’s up around 1 MPH, but that wouldn’t explain the fact that his *four*-seam fastball’s generating twice as many whiffs as it did last year, despite moving to the league with the DH. The Orioles will take it, I assume.
Smoak and Montero get the day off in light of their recent struggles, and Munenori Kawasaki gets the start because he was in top form last night.
1: Ichiro
2: Wells (CF)
3: Jaso (DH)
4: Seager
5: Olivo (C)
6: Ackley (1B)
7: Figgins (LF)
8: Kawasaki (2B)
9: Ryan
SP: Iwakuma
Today’s the big July 2nd signing deadline for international free agents – meaning the 16 year old Dominican and Venezuelan ball players. Just like the amateur draft, this is the first year that a yearly bonus cap’s been imposed on the July 2nd signings – another product of the recent CBA. The M’s haven’t signed any of Baseball America’s Top 20 international free agents, but we’ll see if that changes over the next few hours/days.
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Damnit, I was hoping Mune would not play today so we could possibly see another dance in the dugout. Seriously that dance was the most entertained I was watching yesterday’s game.
I remember a pre game interview from years ago when Vince Scully asked Don Drysdale what he thought of Koufax’s no hitter the day before. His answer “It’s was great but I wanted to know if we won.” LA’s offence was that bad. Our offence is that bad. Looking forward to watching this one.
Gotta love Mune!
Zunino signed up!
sweeeet
I’ll observe that it’s a little confusing to talk about July 2 as a signing deadline. It’s actually the opening of the international signing period, so it’s a beginning rather than an ending.
Mike Zunino signed for $4 million bonus, which is $1.2 million under MLB’s slot recommendation for the pick.
Any news on where zunino will be sent?
Olivo catching and batting 5th against a right hander…why should I expect anything better?
Let’s go Iwakuma!
Still no Saunders. He must really be sick.
Boogity, boogity, boogity, let’s play ball boys!
Like mentioned before, they (front office) had a deal in place while Zunino was still playing in the CWS. It was just a matter of timing until he signed.
Good for the M’s, now don’t frack it up.
Saunders supposedly was feeling better and was going to take BP – but not play tonight. So hopefully he’ll be back in the lineup tomorrow.
BTW this lineup sucks (he says, stating the obvious).
Well, Well’s strike outs continue.
Olivo hitting 5th against Hammel is mind-boggling. Montero should be in there. Jaso should catch. Wedge is a loser. Obviously they could use Saunders. I can’t remember a team with less depth than these guys have shown for the last 3-4 years.
If there’s one thing this team has been good at, it’s striking out.
Anybody hear anything on Moore? Another team claim him?
So how does it work when a primarily Spanish-speaking catcher goes out to talk to a primarily Japanese-speaking pitcher?
Apparently not well…
(I haven’t heard anything about Moore since the DFA)
Hell of a pep-talk, Miguel
The walls of Safeco saved us a run again. So far, anyway.
Nice to see Iwakuma’s velocity up. Nice seeing him ‘k’ his way out of a jam, too.
Be fair, Mike. He may have told him to go ahead and give-up a double, so he could strike-out the next batter.
“Hisashi! Throw the next one right down the middle – it’ll catch them completely off guard! It always catches me off guard!”
Miguel loves him those eyeball-level pitches.
(not sure why the pitcher then threw him a strike next, but lucky us!)
Westy’s got his funny fingers in mid season form. Oh, hey – it’s mid-season!
You may be onto something, Steve. Provide the other team with a false sense of security first and then “attack”.
An actual hit and run was put on. WOW! Third time this year, already?
Hey never seen that before.
Oh wait, yes I have. Dozens of times.
Yup. But where was the hit part?
Shit, Ackley … Make some contact!
For fuck sake, what the hell is going on? Take a lap.
And from the looks of it, 10′s of people are in the park tonight to see it live! What a draw, The O’s and the M’s…at least one of the teams is actually doing decent.
From the Managers perspective, Ackley has now failed to get the bunt down (yesterday) and failed to make contact on a hit and run. This means the Manager is now pissed and simultaneously very, very uncertain with what he can ask the player to do.
These are basic baseball plays to make … Whether you agree with the strategy at the time or not.
Basic. Baseball. Plays.
Sigh. Big big sigh .,,,,
Funny you mentioned that, Mike. With many of the bunts ordered by Wedge, I’ve wondered why a hit & run wasn’t called instead.
So, Ackley continues to be bounced around in the order, and change positions nightly…so that’s sweet. Isn’t he supposed to be the future of this organization?
Sometimes I feel like we’re in the movie “Major League” and management wants to sink the team so they can sell them.
Think about it; we have “Wild Thing” (League), Cerano (Smoak), “Willy Mayes Hayes” (Figgie?), the old guy that rubs snot on the ball would certainly be Millwood, and Wedge is strikingly similar to Lou Brown.
Coincidence?
Truth in Mariners advertising…
“Where’d you get your bat, Smoaky?” should’ve been followed by “and why can’t you actually use it right?”
I’ve heard many “experts” say, that the way the M’s hitters are struggling, that they should start trying to lay down bunts just to try to get on base…unless the manager or GM (in the case of Moneyball) calls off the bunt, which may be the case.
Either way, our line-up had better start hitting, or someone is going to go…even if it’s the wrong person/people.
This series should be interesting these guys strike out more than we do. Of course, they also hit way more home runs than we do.
Figgy! I really disliked him when he was with the Angels because of things just like that!
Woo!!
Nice job Ryan and Figgins!
Oh, Dave Sims….what a GREAT statement there…the lowest average hitters making it happen!
Nice!
Actual execution.
More, please!
RBI Ichiro, RBI, RBI, RBI…
Where has that Figgins been for the last 2.5 years?!
What the hell was that?
Is that game over?
That was a pure shit at bat, Eech.
I thought Ichiro fouled that off.
SFGD Wells.
Wells is not making the most of his opportunity.
You don’t have to swing at every pitch Mr. Wells
Watching called third strikes with RISP, REALLY annoys me.
When Wells’ back leg slides toward 3B during his swing – he hits nothing. In other words, when his back foot does not remain planted, he is Brendan Ryan at the plate. Ryan does the same shit, only more frequently.
Wells’ at bat made Ichiro’s look good by comparison. Swung at shit in the dirt and watched a fastball on the outer half.
The offensive fungi is growing.
Terry, they do hit more homers than we do, but look where they play half their games. 364′ power alley – compared to 388′ power alley in “the marine layer” of the great white north.
Speaking of homers…
Meat…
Is Thome a future hall of famer? Yes or No.
Blowers said “for sure”
Fuck me, Davis hit it over the southern Alaska iceberg.
You see, Smoakie, it’s not that hard.
600+ home runs… Thome will get in just based on that stat.
When was the M’s last 3 run home run?
Well, to be honest, he’s been pretty consistent over the years, and was never suspect in the “roid” years.
71.7 lifetime WAR for Thome.
A reasonable number for a HoF.
Well, to be honest, he’s been pretty consistent over the years, and was never suspect in the “roid” years.
I believe that he probably did them, especially given what was going on in the mid-90s Cleveland clubhouse… But I really suspect that between greenies and steroids, most MLB players at least tried it. You’d probably be stupid not to.
What was the highest that Thome ever finished in MVP voting? I am just asking. I do not know.
Yea, those 600 dingers will be tough to pass on when there will be so many other suspected steroid users to not vote for.
He sure is a quality human and passes the longevity test. Too bad Edgar was held back an extra year or two and then missed another couple years in aggregate – because of injuries. He might get in eventually, too – but it’s gonna take a while.
Henry, I agree, but he didn’t explode like Mac or Sosa, and call attention to himself.
I wonder if they have a low pitch limit for Iwakuma tonight.
Currently Jim Thome fails the “Black Test”, is borderline on the “Grey Test”, and is high-borderline on the other two HoF tests.
But, those test don’t really rely as much on HRs.
Henry, explain please ^
I have no idea what you are saying, or trying not to say.
I believe they said he had an 80 pitch level which seems low to me.
Mike,
http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/leader_glossary.shtml
Thome has been a #4 and a #6 in the MVP voting.
But given that the MVP voters are barely literate, I don’t give that much credence.
Especially considering that Wade Boggs never got higher than 4th from 1984-1989, even though he probably should have won at least 2.
We’ll take it.
That’s just lazy defense. He had plenty of time to get in front of the ball.
Make them pay, offense!
Is it weird that after Seager gets out, I usually just zone out when the M’s are at bat?
Make them pay, offense!
What is the “offense” thing you speak of?
Did the catcher just basically bare hand that ball off his cup?
Yeah, I don’t put a ton of credence on the MVP voting either, but it is a pseudo sorta barometer of sorts.
I think the offense reference i made was more theoretical than actual.
Figgy with the hops!
Black and Gray stats … Who knew!
Well color me slightly more informed.
Thanks guys.
Hey, there’s a trick I never thought of…. Pitchers have been known to put fluids/creams on the ball. What if catchers have been doing it? Hiding something over the crotch would be ideal! Give the ball (uh, baseball) a little rub, just before tossing it back to the pitcher.
At least they can’t hit into a double play?
Boy, Wells got a great read
And a nice hit
Come on Seager. Good time for one
Booooooooooooooooo!
*sigh*
And Olivio’s up again.
Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr. Miguel Olivo.
Hate.
Who didn’t see that inevitable conclusion?
Wedge didn’t see it!
So to the people that say we need to keep Olivo because “there’s no one to replace him on the farm”…
Why do we really need to carry three catchers?
(it’s rhetorical – I don’t know that anyone here has ever said that)
Seager’s the culprit that time. Hammel’s a bad dude. Bummer. Seager hasn’t had any protection all year. Montero’s too young, nobody else is a threat. Don’t know why Olivo bats that high in the order, but sh*t, there’s no one else anyway.
Adam Moore. Why not?
I can’t believe Miggy actually caught the deflection off his arm!
Dave would say protection is a myth. Just saying.
Moore was DFA’d
Oh boy …
It looks like it is time for two-and-half-men reruns.
Maybe that’s why Zunino signed for relatively little – they told him he’d be on the big club right away.
Scouting report on Ackley:Pitch him down and away, off the plate, he’ll swing away.
I hope Figgins doesn’t have the green light here.
In the M’s current situation you need to carry 3 catchers. If you put the DH in the field, you lose the DH. And if Jaso is catching, and Montero is DHing, and Jaso gets hurt, you end up with Montero having to catch. So, you kind of need 3 catchers if your DH is your back up catcher.
Figgy’s been more productive recentl than a big chunk of the rest of the lineup – how pathetic is that?
Wow, ugly swing, bad jump, and Ackley get’s lucky.
Wow, and Ackley was out by a mile with a good throw.
Muni!
figgins!!
I guess, Henry, I am thinking losing the DH on rare occasions is not really an issue, given the alternative is Mendoza-hitting Olivo continuing to tie up a spot.
How much worse will our pitchers hit? Vargas can hit better than .200 for sure.
^ yep. That’s the reason for three C’s.
Why not try to sign Manny Ramirez, or Vlad? If they’re willing to come here for beans, and it means no Olivo at DH, I’d be ok with it. Maybe I’m mistaken, but I don’t think Montero is any worse behind the plate. Certainly not as bad with the bat.
Steve, I agree with Vlad. He hit the crap outta he ball in Safeco.
Jaso and Montero are actually 2 of your best hitters. Might as well have them both, and a back up catcher. However, it shouldn’t have been Olivo, especially if it means releasing Moore. That is just stupid. Olivo being on this team makes less sense than me being on the team. I would at least dance with Muni Kawasaki.
The longer those guys sit out, the less confidence I’d have in them being able to produce much, though. But even a .240 average would be an improvement over Olivo’s .200.
Wells! Way to redeem yourself!!
Finally! Wells!!
Wells!!!!!!!
Love me some Casper Wells.
vlad is no longer vlad, but I bet he could still take Jamie Moyer deep.
Sweet – Wells!
Atta boy – a Christmas miracle!!!
Take notes, Ackley!
The Friendly Ghost!
Casper! About time the offense showed up!
Naturally, MLB Audio craps out when something good happens.
Looking at Gameday – ’bout time one of our guys took advantage of a meatball!
Totally agree, Henry. Giving Moore another go, would have made a lot more sense, than keeping Olivo around.
3 runs is explosive?
It wasn’t a meatball. It was a pitch right on the outside corner and down at the bottom of the zone.
Wells has 7 doubles, Smoak has 3.
Andino’s drop opens the door. Ackley was thrown out. Nice break.
In 1988 the entire Seattle Mariners team had similar WAR to Wade Boggs.
It just occurred to me that in seven innings of today’s game we just scored as many runs as we did in the first three games of the Boston series. Sad.
Especially in consideration of a couple of the crap pitchers they have decided to keep on the 40-man roster.
They gave Moore the same reward for getting hurt that they provided to Endy Chavez – a few years back, apparently.
Yeah, Wells stayed on that outside corner breaking ball, really well and went down to get it, too. Tough pitch – great hit.
When was Moore DFA’d? I heard his name in the lineup at Tacoma this weekend,
Kelly is really getting squeezed.
Gameday made it look like it was smack in the middle of the plate, and up.
We’ll have to see what Brooks shows after the game.
Eh… that Chavez incident really disgusted me. He played great. GD Yuni plowed into him, he goes on the DL, and we never see him again. You would THINK he would have been re-signed and given a chance, given his performance before injury. Moore getting DFA’d does kinda have the same feel.
Moore got DFA’ed 2 days ago, VC.
LOL-IVO!!
He can hit a mistake a long ways.
ACKLEY!!
Wow! Nice job guys!
Sweet!
MTFI.
Okay, Figgy – make it a 3-fer! hehe
Wilhelmson has been pitching a lot of innings lately. 4 Innings in the last two games.
If Figgins hits a home run I’ll eat my socks.
Olivo’s ears must have been burning. Ackley’s been getting it back for a week. Looking totally different. If Muni goes deep, I’ll buy his jersey.
Your socks are safe, Henry!
Kawasaki missed that ball by two feet.
Your feet are safe, henry.
I always wonder if they’re checking their smartphones in the dugout when stuff like that happens.
I doubt it. Phones are probably banned.
Big nasty!!!
Olivo simply makes too many outs to be a regular player… but MAN that guy is strong! When he hits one, he REALLY hits one.
Remember when Milton Bradley wanted to beat up a TV commentator? I wonder what Olivo wants to do to us.
Why the f**k did we trad AJ? Just sayin’ — again.
Fire up the Napolean Dynamite dance, Westy.
Or at least get the DVD player ready.
YEAH!!
Please sit Smoak again tomorrow. It’s his density.
Yes, density.
Back to the Future reference.
Why we traded AJ is the same reason we traded Choo and Cabrera. Bill Bavasi.
Jose Vidro.
Who did we get for Choo and Cabrera again? I think I’ve blanked it out – too painful.
I think we received the ever whimsical Eric Bedard.
Eduardo Perez for Cabrera? Ben Broussard for Choo?
Oh crap let me forget that again please.
We got Broussard and that Latino who retired and ended up with Fox or ESPN. Blanking on the name. Decent hitter, but retired after one season here.
If you really wanna open the wounds, look who the Angels drafted with the pick they got from us, for having signed Figgins.
Bedard for Jones and others … My comment arrives late
The “Latino” in the other debacle of a trade was Eduardo Perez. Son of HOF’er Tony Perez.
How about that, close the roof and the ball seems to fly a little better. I think that guy in the comments of Dave’s Fangraphs article was on to something, talking about how the roof can drastically change the wind patterns. I vote for keeping the roof closed until summer really gets to the NW, if it ever does…
Okay Steve … Who was it? It was not Trout. Trout was drafted in ’09. Figgins arrived in Seattle in ’10. Right?
I think I screwed that up. Trout was the Angels regular pick, not the supplemental, right? Still stings that they got him!
Bedard cost us Jones, Sherill, Tillman, and two others, if I remember right. Tillman was suppose to be good, never really cut-it. But Jones and (or!) Sherill alone made that deal suck.
Yes, Perez, only because they NEEDED a “true” DH…
Yeah, I screwed that up, Mike. Figgins signed in December of 2009.
I sure like the roof closed idea a lot better than the move the fences in idea. If that makes people happy, go for it! Yes, there is and always has been a difference with the roof closed. No excuse for it to happen on a nice day, though. A “nice day” is a subjective thing, and i suppose you could determine it based off of temperature and the other already existing factors relative to the Edgar clapping decision.
Kinda silly conversation all around, though. IMO
I thought I knew where you were going Steve, so I provided an assist.
In regard to Trout, there were 23 GM’s who missed on that one. High school picks are risky though. Except for when they aren’t. I wonder where the M’s had him on their board. They would have taken all sorts of shit if they had picked him at #2 at the time.
In regard to draft picks, I would like to see Corey Seager not sign with the dodgers, go to a JC, re-enter the draft next year and have the M’s take him with the 6th pick next year. He would essentially come away with a couple extra million dollars to attend a JC for a year. Wouldn’t that be some shit – and a good business decision on his part.
Please don’t tell me he signed with the dodgers today.
Seager already signed with the Dodgers though, didn’t he?
Yep, $2.35 million
Kaleb Cowart was the pick for Figgins.
Fuuuuuck!
I should have gone to bed after submitting the comment.
Good for him, though. Good for him. Can’t pass up that much money. The brother bug in the ear via organizational insiders might have been a good play, there
Frack!
Phook!
Fpoppllllsssshhhh!
Bed
Back from the game. Cool fact: Davis’s homer was the Orioles’ last hit.
I should have done the same. Instead, I’m researching draft picks, and bloating myself with Jalapeno chips.
and bloating myself with Jalapeno chips.
Tims?
LOVE Tim’s Sea Salt and Vinegar chips. Mmm…
Man, now I want some.
Yep, Tims. The best! Always good with black coffee in the morning as well.
When WELLS was coming to bat, I wondered if SHOWALTER was thinking back to that day (almost seventeen years ago) when he left his pitcher in to face one more batter–that batter doubled too.