Game 91, Mariners at Royals
Jason Vargas vs. Jonathan Sanchez, 5:10pm
In a November 2011 for Fangraphs, Dave wrote that Sanchez had the fourth-highest K rate of any starter in baseball in recent years – behind Tim Lincecum, Clayton Kershaw and Yovani Gallardo. He also wrote that he wasn’t as good as that K rate suggested. Still, when Kansas City acquired him in exchange for Melky Cabrera, most thought he’d continue to be something like a league-average pitcher, albeit one who got to league-average in a roundabout way. Meanwhile, Melky Cabrera has put up 3.3 WAR (he’s hitting .350!) and Sanchez has utterly collapsed.
That high K rate was always something of an oddity, given that Sanchez throws softer than Hisashi Iwakuma. Dave’s piece mentioned his habit of throwing up in the zone, where whiff rates are higher, but that can’t be all of it. In any event, whatever alchemy that allowed 24% K rates on so-so velo fastballs didn’t make the plane to Kansas City (or maybe it did?). His K rate has dropped 10 percentage points from his career mark, and he’s now in Barry Zito/Clayton Richard/Kyle Lohse/Rick Porcello territory. His poor command was always a problem, but it’s degenerated to the point where he makes Kyle Drabek look like a Twins pitcher. Among all pitchers with 50 innings, Sanchez’s walk rate’s of 16.7%’s the worst. He’s walked 42 hitters unintentionally (and plunked another 5), and he’s struck out 34. His FIP’s over 6, which is really, really hard to do.
His fastball’s no longer 91-92; he’s worked in the 88-90 range since coming off the DL with tendinitis (AKA the Jeff Weaver memorial “just clear your head a while” diagnosis), and if he was bad before the DL trip, he’s been pretty much exactly the same after it. Before: 25 1/3 IP, 22 BB, 18 Ks, 2 HRs. After: 26 2/3 IP, 21 BB, 16 Ks, 4 HRs. I’m not going to kick a player when he’s down, in part because it feels mean to point out the failings in the Kansas City org after all they’ve suffered through, and in part because I write about the Mariners – but this is the definition of a winnable game. Unwatchable, perhaps, but winnable.
With the lefty on the mound, the M’s get both Olivo and Montero in the line-up. I’m glad to see Montero back behind the plate, and I don’t mind Olivo in the line-up against a lefty who really struggles against righties, which… no, OK, I’ll level with you: during the Felix-vs-Darvish/USSM-LL meet-up thing, Jeff Sullivan tweeted “Could Yu Darvish could walk Josh Hamilton?” Well, this is essentially another version of that hypothetical. Jonathan Sanchez appears incapable of jogging the ball into the strike zone, and Olivo has 2 walks in his last 114 plate appearances.
Matthew’s series preview at LL includes the slightly depressing fact that Jason Vargas and Bruce Chen have identical career xFIP marks. Vargas last pitched a homerless game on May 9th, at home (duh), versus Detroit. He’s also on a mini-roll, with 22 Ks in 23 2/3 IP in his last three starts (though two of them came against the change-up-phobic Athletics, so, add an extra asterisk to the one you already applied to a stat based on a pitcher’s last three starts).
The line-up:
1: Ackley
2: Ichiro
3: Wells
4: Montero (C)
5: Smoak
6: Seager
7: Olivo (DH)
8: Saunders
9: Ryan
SP: Jason Vargas
The surging Anthony Fernandez starts for Jackson tonight against Tennessee, and Steve Garrison leads the Rainiers against Sacramento at Cheney (7:05 start time – you should go). As JY already mentioned, Clinton played early and last week’s no-hit star Jordan Shipers got knocked around in a 10-4 loss. Jose Valdivia leads Everett into Salem-Keizer, Min-Sih Chen starts for Pulaski and while someone may know who’ll take the ball for High Desert and Arizona, I’m not that someone.
Go M’s.
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57 Responses to “Game 91, Mariners at Royals”
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Olivo is…..DH’ing.
I just….you know what, fuck it. It doesn’t even matter anymore, I guess.
Casper HR!
Oh my God. Parallel universe happenings.
OMG – Smoak HR.
Nice write-up Marc, and thanks for including the minor league game preview teasers. Nice touch.
If Smoak’s homer leads to good things… great!
If Smoak’s homer leads to us having to watch another two months of him weakly swinging a foot above pitches down near his ankles… crap.
And the answer to “Could Yu Darvish walk Josh Hamilton” is no.
It’s batting practice tonight, apparently.
Fister trade is looking better!
Sanchez having thrown a no-hitter appears to be on par with Humber having thrown a perfect game.
Okay, there’s the Smoak I remember.
Of course, all those people breaking glass at that Captain Morgan banquet aren’t the ones who’ll be cleaning it up…
Why on earth did the Royals bring Yuni back?
Dayton Moore
Dayton Moore: “We need to get a guy like Josh Hamilton somehow.”
Random advisor: “Remember Yunieski Betancourt, who we traded to the Brewers? He swings at almost anything – just like Josh Hamilton!”
Dayton Moore: “GET ME YUNI’S AGENT, PRONTO!!”
If a Vargas is being showcase for a trade, then so far so good!
Casper is having a day, Olivo is fucking up his entire job today (which is hitting), Mariners up big early.
Overall, still a good night.
Down the middle, elevated and below average velo = really bad fit anywhere … But especially in Baltimore. The Orioles can’t really be considering Vargas, can they?
Not any more they aren’t, Mike.
Come on Jason, don’t let these guys back into the game!
Might as well keep Vargas at this point and let him eat up innings until the young pitchers are ready. He’s not going to bring anything of value in a trade at this point. (At least I can’t imagine a trade gaining anything of value)
That Butler home run is just now landing on Vashon Island.
Wells is studding up!
Wells!!!
I will never agree with Olivo DHing. No matter what reason given to me.
I would like to see the ball accidentally find the sweet spot of Smoak’s bat again today, but that might be asking for a little too much. Maybe one more time this series?
There’s probably a better chance he pop’s one up that gets lost in the sun.
I think Ackley has “found” something good!
I still think Ackley will be an elite hitter in a year or two. He has all the tools and he’s shown the ability to make adjustments. At least in AAA.
Well, he certainly squared that one up … Just right at the LF
He as in Smoak
Did he really just say Blake Beavan is pitching tomorrow? -__-
If he did, I missed it. Riding exercise bike while watching. Radio blasting music.
I heard Beavan coming back was inevitable with Ramirez still out. At least he is better than Noesi.
I missed it – did Smoak make good contact but hit it at someone?
I heard Drayer mention earlier, that Beavan was likely to start tomorrow, though the official announcement hadn’t been made yet.
Smoak hit a pee (right on the screws) to the LF. It was probably still gaining speed at the time of the catch. He pasted it. It was a bullet. A screaming me-me.
How is that for an above average use of metaphors. His RH stroke looks better than his LH stroke, but they both need to be functioning somewhere in T-town.
He did nail it though, Westy. He hit it harder than his HR.
I think Montero can become a Billy Butler type of hitter. And, I would take that any day.
We should start a pool on how many more shots to the head Montero will take this season.
Thanks Mike. I really do hope he can turn it around, but I think we all need a break from watching him try.
Those Montero shots to the head concern me.
Wow Olivo looked just horrible there.
And that surprises you why, greentunic?
Yeah, that should be an error.
That wasn’t a good decision by Saunders (or Datz – whoever made the choice to have Condor try for third).
Condor rounded 2B real wide. If he had “cut” the base better, he would have been safe. As it was, it took a perfect throw to get him … And Francoeur can definitely make a perfect throw. I would have sent Saunders, too. Big dude runs very well, and a lot better than he “turned” … At least on that play.
Roll tape, Westy – and tell me if you agree
Westy,
I general don’t have a problem with them trying to stretch going from first to third with one out. The reason being that if you make it, and draw the throw, you now have 2nd and 3rd, without the possibility of a double play.
Within reason, of course. Probably shouldn’t be doing that with Justin Smoak.
Now that Francoeur has gunned down Saunders, it has effectively exorcised the Ackley robbing homer – from late last season – from Ackley’s psyche … So he can now become the hitter he was always supposed to have been.
Thank you for taking one for the team, Michael!
From the field-level camera shot it looked like Francoeur had the ball when Saunders was rounding second.
I think you have to make those decisions based on the fielder – Francoeur, or Ichiro, makes that throw so you don’t run on him. Most other guys… sure, send him.
Also, some day, I’d like to see Saunders take out a catcher. Preferably Kurt Suzuki.
I’d like to see Kawasaki try to take out a catcher.
Jesus!
Nice rip! Stayed on-balance perfectly. Having a cookie to hit didn’t hurt, either.
Well, that would be entertaining.
Okay, please tell me how everyone saw that as soon as Cain remembered it was Montero, he jogged to grab that double.
It’s Teaford, another Twitter All-Star!
Henry, I think Cain went onto the concourse, bought a soda and a candy bar, then came back and fetched the ball.
Why hurry … What’s the rush?
Nice win.
If Beavan is on his way up, does that mean Kinney is on his way down?
Hopefully Peguero, because, damn he is even worse than how terrible I remember him being.
I agree with you Henry – but I’d be surprised to see Peggy go down that quickly.
I was hearing Delabar. He’s got options.
Guti’s traveling with the team, so he must be close to being ready. I’d imagine Peguero will certainly be gone upon his return, if not before.
So is Ackley maybe showing signs of life? Hammered that ball to center in Felix’s last start and now a HR. Would love to see him start living up to his potential.