Game 95, Mariners at Rays
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. James Shields, 4:10pm
Hisashi Iwakuma’s two recent starts haven’t been awful (especially not compared with Hector Noesi’s two recent AAA starts), but they’re somewhat concerning. The sterling K:BB ratio hasn’t translated to the rotation, and there’s still the manner of his ugly HR rate. His xFIP is better looking, though it’s still not exactly good. That said, given the problems Noesi’s had and the injury to Erasmo Ramirez, I’m glad Iwakuma’s getting the chance to show what he can do. He doesn’t have a whole lot of time to showcase that he’s worth a longer term deal in MLB, so let’s hope he starts making that case tonight.
Opposing him is James Shields, the change-up specialist who’s been an extremely valuable member of the Rays rotation for a while now. His brilliant 2011 campaign was blighted only by three encounters with the dregs of the AL West – two starts against Seattle in which he gave up 15 runs total, and one against the A’s in which he gave up 10 (in 4 IP!). He seems to be throwing a tick faster than he did last season, up closer to 93 than 92. He throws his change-up around a third of the time; he throws it roughly the same amount to lefties and righties. That’s actually a hallmark of his – he throws the same pitches in the same percentages to everyone. And hitters respond in kind: over his career, he’s now got a 3.91 FIP against lefties, and a 3.91 FIP against righties. Of course, if you use xFIP, then it’s 3.64 and…3.64.
These dead-even splits are anomalous, as we’d expect a pitcher to have a platoon advantage against same-handed hitters. That he doesn’t shows you how effective a good change-up can be in evening the playing field. It also shows you that, while it’s hard to complain about a guy worth nearly 5 fWAR last year, a slider/curveball would make a lot of sense. He’s toyed with a slider in the past, but it doesn’t seem to have stuck. He’s always had something of a HR problem, so hopefully the M’s can continue driving pitches the way they did in Kansas City. And while James Shields is hardly Jonathan Sanchez, the M’s managed to hit SIX HRs off of Shields last year. The 2011 M’s, in total, hit something like 9 HRs. I’m not a big fan of the style of analysis that says that the M’s “own” this guy or that “they’re in his head” but I would love some additional data to build questionable narratives on.
Speaking of Jonathan Sanchez, the countdown to the deadline began in earnest today when Sanchez was traded to Colorado for Jeremy Guthrie. Two of the worst (possibly THE two worst) starting pitchers in baseball in 2012 were traded for each other. I’m not sure I’ve seen something like this before. Both joined new teams this offseason, and both had been MLB regulars for many years. Sanchez always had a nice K rate going for him, and Guthrie was going to Colorado, but both were generally speaking seen as good candidates to put up league average numbers. Not great, and they’d get there in different ways, but average. In both cases, the players they were traded for simply went nuts and putting up video game numbers. Melky Cabrera is still hitting .357, and has already amassed 3.5 WAR (excluding defense). Jason Hammel went to Baltimore, and put up 2.8 WAR before going down with knee surgery (not arm related!). Meanwhile, Sanchez and Guthrie both have FIP’s over 6.
What a perfect move to get the uncomfortable reminder about how each team got “fleeced” in the results-based, hindsight-enabled view of each team’s fanbase. What a perfect chance at a salvaging something, however unlikely, from these disastrous trades. I really hope it works out. Having just seen Sanchez, and given the ZIP code Sanchez is moving to, I have a whole lot of doubts. But it’d be fun.
Any good parallels out there? By WAR, it’s not the trade of the two worst players – Pedro Feliz was traded a few years back, and had run up -2 WAR all by himself that year (the return in that deal, David Carpenter, was himself traded today in the 10-player swap between the Astros and Blue Jays). But that deal was rather typical of one team just jettisoning a bad veteran for a minor league lottery ticket. I’ve seen awful players traded for “cash considerations” or what have you.
The one precedent many M’s fans will think of is the Carlos Silva-for-Milton Bradley trade before the 2010 season. However, in that case, while Silva had stunk up the joint in Seattle, he’d only pitched in 30 innings in 2009. Meanwhile, while Bradley was hated in Chicago, he wasn’t an *awful* player in 2009 – a disappointment, sure. Overpaid? Yeah, perhaps. But he was a league-average hitter in 2009, so while both sides felt nothing but relief at the time of the trade (like the Guthrie/Sanchez swap), it’s not an apples to apples comparison.
So, my takeaways from this dumpster-diving trade:
1: Fans and teams still occasionally overrate the “safety” of veteran players. That is, they believe veteran performance is less variable than those crazy rookies; the orbit around true-talent is much tighter. As we learned from both Carlos Silva AND Milton Bradley, that’s not always true.
2: Teams don’t do this enough. It really helps that you had two guys in virtually identical situations for similar lengths of time, but I’m a bit surprised that teams don’t trade bigger-named flops for other bigger-named flops. I know, I know: it sucks to buy high and then look to sell low, but are we done with Figgins yet? Please?
Oh yeah: the line-up:
1: Ackley
2: Ichiro
3: Wells (CF)
4: Jaso (DH)
5: Montero (C)
6: Seager
7: Smoak
8: Peguero (LF)
9: Ryan
SP: Iwakuma
Olivo free
Glad not to see Olivo, but why is Peguero in?
Hey, Ichiro!
Early offense on the road continues.
Peguero’s in because he’s 2-2 with 2 HRs lifetime against Shields. Stats guys may counsel you not to pay attention to such anomalies, but Wedge loves stuff like this.
And after I talk about how he should develop a curve to get righties out, Shields goes curve/curve/curve/curve to strike out Justin Smoak, a lefty.
I am sooooo tired of Smoak…
Is Ryan trying to kill someone in the dugout????
I must be here by myself but why does Montero not take his mask off when chasing foul balls? Seems it has happened a few times this year. Does not make much sense to me…
Good question missouri … It makes no sense. From the time of Little League, catchers are taught how to locate the ball, discard the mask and to use two hands to catch a popup. The fewer obstructions, the better.
Bad Fundies.
I’m here too, MissouriMariner, but I’m not quite caught up to real time yet.
I think as time goes on we’re seeing more and more evidence of why some people don’t expect Montero to stick behind the plate.
Hopefully he will be willing to work on the basics a bit and become a decent catcher…I don’t guess I have never heard anyone talk about his work ethic though…
If Montero’s bat comes around, I would suspect down the road we’ll see him play once or twice a week at catcher but most of the time at DH.
But then Olivo’s been able to stick behind the dish for over a decade, and he’s a butcher back there too…
I am listening on XM so it is the Tampa broadcast but they acted like it was totally catchable ball. It’s the little stuff like that and the team’s horrific baserunning that just drives me nuts…
I guess I just expect too much, but I do expect guys to know the basics when they get called up. Just kind of weird.
@MissouriMariner and msfanmike…The reason he doesn’t take the mask off has already been explained by Montero. The mask he uses isn’t the traditional mask as he was getting pummeled in the face with foul balls at a unusually high rate. To counter this he now uses the “hockey” mask which is much more angled so the odds he will be hit flush on the mask go way down. Also, the mask is harder to just take off and throw down so he decided to just keep it on when fielding.
Blowers made it sound like he might’ve lost it in the roof – we have seen that happen in Tampa before. But location-wise it was an easy catch.
BTW anyone know how much longer Carp’s got on his rehab stint? I’m really really tired of Smoak.
Hopefully he did lose it, just interesting about the mask…
I don’t know how much longer Carp has but I do hope that they make that move. I still hold out hope for Smoak but the guy needs some work or to clear his head or something. He is lost…
Yeah Mr. Blowers and Mr. Smoak, the difference since last year is opposing pitchers have learned they don’t need to throw anything hittable to get Peguero out…
Carp has to come up on July 23 – per Drayers best estimate/input.
He is not in any kind of groove in AAA, so there is plenty of uncertainty in regard to what he will be when he gets here. And you know Wedge will keep ghrowing Smoak out there in the middle of the lineup, anyway.
Fucking Ichiro swinging at that shit pitch again. He just won’t let himself get on base often enough by taking a walk.
er, Mr. SIMS not Mr. Smoak! hehe
Iwakuma is finally looking good.
So I’m late to the party for this conversation but…. with the new masks kids are being told to keep them on. I’m two years removed from high school ball and I was told to keep it on. They make the masks so that vision is much less limited and they want all the protection possible at all times possible.
It’s possible that Montero has been told to keep it on, I know I was.
That’s interesting – thanks Marcus.
Huh, that’s interesting. I did not know that. Were you able to see just as well with it as without it – when searching for a popup, Marcus?
I was hoping that Iwakuma could go a game with out giving up a dinger but I guess not….
Peguero has no business being on the field. Sheesh, he ran right by that.
It’s really, really close to equal. I mean you’re peripheral vision is slightly reduced but you should have a good enough idea as to where it is that that becomes a non-issue. If you’re looking close to the right area, it’s pretty much the same.
Peguero has no business in the majors period…
I would think that anything that would impair your vision should be tossed aside, but that is just my opinion.
I can’t help but think that, in light of his off-speed stuff, the perfect team for Iwakuma to face is the free swinging Mariners.
Ah crap.
I meant your* not you’re just so I don’t look like an idiot. And yeah I understand that and on pop-ups it’s less of an issue and you probably could toss it. But most balls in play they want it on just in case any sort of collision or anything happens.
I believe Jaso had a play at the plate earlier this year where he got forearmed right in the mask. It’s something you don’t think about happening, but the more protection you have the better. In a sense they think the out is less important that major head injury.
I recall the broadcast team earlier this season mentioning that Montero had switched fairly recently to the new hockey-style mask, specifically so he could keep it on all the time.
Reducing the complexity of the procedure (by eliminating the throw-away-the-mask-and-then-hope-nobody-trips-over-it step) seems like it would be a win if the visibility wasn’t impaired very much.
I wonder if anyone’s tried making one of those hockey-style masks out of clear plexiglass?
I would think that plexi would fog up and be quite hot…
Is there any special reason why Saunders didn’t play today?
I meant clear plexi instead of the solid parts of the mask – not replacing the grille. There’d be some distortion but you’d have a little bit better peripheral vision.
Yeah a solid plexiglass helmet would be horrible.
Supposedly just a day off for Saunders.
Great!!!! I guess we get Peggy tomorrow too huh? DINGER!!!
Atta boy, you big goofball!
Haha Peggy!!
I was halfway through a comment complaining about Peguero’s hitting and then he does that so I have to erase it.
So did he almost fall down when he hit it?
Don’t worry, Marcus – you’ll have plenty more chances.
Oh boy, Delabar.
And …. Frack!
He is becoming Brandon League. Apologies to being John Malkovich.
Peguero looked like he might fall down when he chased that ball into the corner – but he did stop it, to his credit.
I can’t wait until Pryor is filling this role every game. Or even the 8th inning. I like him so much better than any of our relief options not named Wilhelmsen, or Furbush.
Peggy always seems to be on the verge of falling down…LOL.
WHOA! That was kinda cool, even though the suicide squeeze didn’t work.
I love that play!!
Not a whole lot montero can do on that one..
Olivo, Montero, Jaso and Dan Wilson together shoulder-to-shoulder couldn’t have stopped that pitch.
What about with Dave Valle in the mix?
I know Root Sports covers the whole Northwest, but do they really think they’re helping their cause with those Timbers ads that make it sound like the majority of their viewing audience doesn’t hate that team?
I hate lead-off walks…
There’s some evidence as to why a coach would bunt, instead.
Smoak swung at the pitch 29 pitching coaches list as the “guaranteed Mariner out pitch.”
According to gameday Smoak just swung at 4 pitches out of the strike zone…is this right or is gameday off?
That was as ugly of a half inning as they can put together.
I think.
I did not see the entire Smoak AB, but he ended up spinning around on his strike three swing and miss, if that helps to answer your question regarding pitch location.
Peguerio’s final swing and miss was at an even worse pitch.
Like stated above ^ – the other 29 pitching coaches, pitch of choice.
No more batted balls to LF, please. Roof schmoof – the guy is just a crap defensive player.
One more out and SELL HIGH ON LEAGUE!!!
I realize this is a rather big assumption to be making.
The deadline is approaching fast. It’ll be interesting to see what/if moves are made.
Tempting fate with League throwing another inning. I think I have already seen this movie.
Well, League’s ERA is around 3 now. Maybe someone will bite. I still think he has incredible stuff. Just has control issues at times. Too many times.
Well that was a butt-clencher.
I got to admit my heart jumped when the announcer said that fly ball was headed to left…surprised Peggy didn’t trip or something…
Nice that they survived, but shouldn’t Wilhelmsen be pitching? Is he not available?
Wilhelmsen won’t pitch unless Seattle takes the lead. It would then be a save opportunity.
I know I’m late but this comment is for the guys at the top talking about Montero not taking his mask off. The mask being taken off used to be taught because the old face masks and helmets blocked a catcher view. The new hockey style masks have such great vision out of them that a lot of coaches, little league up through the pros, don’t want their catchers taking off their masks at all. Catchers got to used to taking their masks off all the time that when there were plays at the plate catchers would be with out their masks. Now guys can leave them on and lean into a play at the plate because they know going face to face will hurt the runner a lot more then them.
I don’t doubt that Missouri, but is that wise? I think that is 1970′s baseball wisdom.
Of course now I read through all the comments and saw marcus answered the questions first. Oh well.
Someone remind Kinney he’s facing the bottom of the order.
About the mask, I understand leaving it on for plays at the plate and all but on a foul ball I still don’t see the point in leaving it on if it impairs your vision. I would think that you would want the clearest vision possible when trying to find a pop up. Just me though….
I remember that being addressed the first time Montero wore the new mask. The response, was that it didn’t impair his vision at all. Hard to believe though.
I had to step away for a while – why the heck is Peguero still in there?
Peggy hit a DINGER!!!! He will be in there for the next two weeks…
Smoak hit that with everything he had.
The umps wearing the same type of new mask take it off to make a call at the plate or if they rotate and have to make a call at 3B. I suppose it all depends what you are taught to do, but I have to trust the guys who have done it – and they say the difference is negligible. Yeah, it looks weird to me too, but I didn’t grow up with it.
So did Divish fly to Tampa to cover this series or something?
I don’t know about Divish, but Scott Savastano might need to get loose in a hurry.
How I long for a good defensive catcher…how soon till Zunino gets here????
These walks are eventually going to catch up to the Mariners…
But they escaped again!
You are going to have to “Long” for a short while longer. If short = 200 more games, or so.
Cue the Barnum and Bailey music … Ryan is up.
You look like an idiot, Ryan. Geez.
Leave the donut on next time.
Ackley sure got lost again in a hurry.
I like the later extra innings (14+) where everyone starts to get exhausted and just swing from their heels, hoping to end the game. They’re the best.
Couldn’t hurt. (leaving the donut on, that is)
This umpire has seen about 400 pitches tonight and has missed none of consequence. None I can recall, anyway – but I have not seen every pitch.
Wilhelmsen, yay! Now please don’t make me look stupid…
Well I have survived a lifetime of being an M’s fan so I guess 200 games is not too bad. Boy the late 90′s early 2000′s were sure fun though…
Jaso’s due for a big hit, right? Maybe we’ll finally see some offense this inning.
These walks are eventually going to catch up to the Rays…
^haha
Smoak’s due for a big hit, right?
^haha
haha Steve.
Really looking forward to Carp’s return, assuming he replaces Smoak.
What inning you think Figgins takes the mound?
Is it bad i hope he gets lit up?
I think right now I’d prefer seeing Smoak go down to AAA instead of Figgins getting DFAed.
Figgins isn’t making us suffer from game to game.
^Totally agree. At least Figgins offers speed.
Don’t misunderstand – I do hope Smoak can turn it around. But he needs to do it in AAA, if only for OUR sake!
HAHAHAHA!
I really want to see Olivo pitch!!
CRAP.
I think I’m more disappointed that we don’t get to see Olivo take the mound, actually.
Man I wanted to see Olivo pitch bad. That would have been hilarious. LOL
What makes me less confident that Smoak can turn it around, is that he’s had a ton of PA’s, and shown no sign of improvement with anything. But maybe at AAA he can start from scratch?
That would have been guaranteed.
He might’ve been semi-decent. He does have a pretty good arm.
hahaha Breadbaker
Ackley & Smoak, combined 0-12. I hope Z and the front office watched every painful inning of this game.
Throw Montero in there and it’s 0-17. The young guns shoot more blanks than bullets.
LOL He probably would have pitched bad but would have been interesting to see how hard he threw. Would have added humor to a bit of a boring game.
Olivo throwing to Montero would’ve been amazing.
That would have been amazing….no passed balls I am sure. LOL
Mariners come home on the 23rd – that would be a good time to make the switch (Carp for Smoak).
I know Carp hasn’t been particularly good in AAA, but Smoak is currently broken. Plus I think Carp’s past performances deserve an extended “time to sink or swim” audition.
MM, I was thinking of exactly that – all the passed balls on Olivo’s pitches, and all the “passed balls” when Olivo fails to take Montero’s throws back.
I don’t wanna see Carp rushed back, though. If he’s not 100%, I’d rather see someone else have a go at first, maybe someone from outside the organization.
LOL Westside!!! Guess they could have moved Ackley up the middle to handle those passed balls. Well anyways….catch you guys later. I am out for the night….
One aspect I always rather liked about Olivo is that I thought he had a pretty strong arm.
Man, it would have been great to see him pitch. (If Ichiro was not allowed to).
Smoak and Ackley combined vs. KC/TB so far .174/240/413 with 13 k’s. Did someone forget to mention to them they’re on the road?
I’m not sure I understand the desire to see Mike Carp at the major league level…
Total numbers for 2012 (including 100+ AB’s at AA/AAA)…
31 for 186, w/ 47 K’s
(.166 BA, 25% K rate)
Justin Smoak, all at the MLB level
.195 BA, 23% K rate
Not defending Smoak, but maybe somebody ELSE besides Carp deserves the shot?
Rich Poythress?
.299 BA, .395 OBP, with 20K’s in 167 AB’s?
Heck, I’d rather he get a shot, honestly.
Any desire to see Carp is driven by two things:
1) His pre-2012 numbers, combined with the reasonable assumption that he hasn’t been 100% healthy this year; and
2) The fact that he’s not named “Smoak”.
I wouldn’t be averse to seeing someone else IFF there is someone else with probable talent; but Carp has produced previously at the major league level unlike most of these guys.
Westy-
I understand all that, but his pre-2012 numbers, other than a month and a half absolute TEAR, have been awful…
(Carp and Smoak were each worth .5 WAR last year, too… and are worth -.1 and -.8 respectively this year, which is pretty much exactly the same when you figure in their time played this year)
I’m not anti-Carp per se, just not anxious to see one under achiever replace another… Let’s base it on performance and be consistent– and Carp hasn’t earned it if we do.
But a LOT of guys are visibly (via text) excited about seeing Carp play, and I’m not onboard with it.
Give me Jaso/Montero/Ackley at 1B instead. Or yeah, Rich Poythress can’t be any worse, and he takes walks like neither Carp nor Smoak are capable.
(On the bright future report– Zunino is tearing it up, with a 2 homer game, 3 homers in his first 5 games, hitting .458, .552 OBP, last I checked… 4 walks as well… Montero should dust off that 1B glove!)
Using Carp’s WAR is flawed by the fact that he was playing left. WOBA or OPS+ would be better because they’re probably relatively close to equals defensively at first. Carp is however attrocious in left so that will very negatively affect his WAR.
Also, Montero can’t dust off a first baseman’s glove because he’s never played it at all. I hope he can learn, but people assuming it’s going to happen need to realize that it will no way be a smooth, mid-season transition. He’ll need to work on it in the spring and then we can talk about it more. Right now Montero at first would be like Liddi in left.
Despite everything I’ve said, I must admit I am a bit worried about Carp. Given his lack of production (as MrZ has rightly pointed out) all season and even currently, I question whether he’s truly healthy, or if he’s doing what so many baseball players do – playing through pain.
I will not be very surpised if, come October, we hear he’s been scheduled for surgery. And, if so, the talking heads will all blather about his “grittiness” and how he “went about his business”, while ignoring the fact that he could’ve had it fixed six months earlier and maybe been contributing six months to a year sooner…
Carp’s career numbers (.750 OPS) are probably pretty close to what you could reasonably expect from him as a full-time player. They pencil out to a ~1.5 WAR player over a full season (which is about what Carp has played so far in MLB).
He wouldn’t be a disaster like Smoak has been (though I tend to think at some point, Smoak will figure it out and be a similar below-average-but-above-replacement-level player), but that’s not really a good longterm answer at 1B/DH, and the team should resist the urge to make it one. If they run out of money or options to improve the team, letting Carp play full time isn’t the worst thing you could do (so there’s no reason not to play him the rest of the year), but on most good teams Mike Carp would be on a bench behind a better player at 1B…