Game 120, Twins at Mariners
Not Felix vs. Not At All Felix, Like Pretty Much the Anti-Felix, 7:10pm
The Minnesota Twins visit Safeco for a three game series and a reminder that, however bleak things look in Seattle, they’re worse in the Twin Cities. Minnesota has the worst record in the American League, and it’s not terribly close. Their opening day payroll exceeded $100 million. While they’ve gotten surprisingly decent years from their oft-injured, highly-compensated stars, Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, the team’s sunk about $20 million into guys they hoped would stabilize the starting rotation: Carl Pavano, Scott Baker and tonight’s starter, Nick Blackburn. Baker’s out for the year with Tommy John surgery, and Pavano and Blackburn have combined for 156 replacement-level innings.
Amongst all pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched this year, Blackburn has the worst xFIP, the worst FIP, the worst WAR, the worst ERA, the 2nd worst HR/9 (thanks, Tommy Hunter), and the 3rd worst K%. His FIP is comfortably more than double Felix’s (it makes me uncomfortable to even associate Felix with Blackburn’s 2012). Pitch-type run values can be problematic for a variety of reasons, but just for fun: Blackburn’s two-seam fastball (his bread and butter pitch) has been, the worst pitch - any kind of pitch – in baseball this year. Nick Blackburn’s had a sub-par season, is kind of what I’m getting at.
Hisashi Iwakuma’s still given up 1 HR in each MLB start, and while his ground ball rate’s down a tad from his (brief) stint as a reliever, his K% and K:BB ratio’s improved. True, almost all of that’s due to his out-of-nowhere 13 strike-out game against the Jays, but he’s been a solid starter – his RA’s just under 4 over the course of 7 starts. He’s still somewhat homer-prone, though he’s been a far sight better than Blackburn in that department. Still, he’s got to avoid fastball counts, as MLB is simply destroying Iwakuma’s fastballs. His four-seamer’s the pitch he uses most frequently, and when hitters have put it in play, they’ve hit .300 with a slugging percentage of .650. His sinker’s amazing by comparison, but hitters have gone .280/.400 off of that. His slider’s been bad too, as hitters are slugging .571 on it, and when you remember that it’s thrown predominantly to right-handed batters, it looks even worse. Weakness in his four-seam and slider are two direct causes of his poor performance against right-handed batters. Sure, luck (in the form of his freakish HR/FB ratio) has played a role too, but that’s gone both ways (his ERA’s much lower than his FIP, and he’s got what looks like an unsustainable strand rate). He’s an intriguing pitcher, and I could see him adding some real value in 2013, but I’d love to see some real progress in his slider before I contemplate a multi-year free agent deal for Iwakuma.
The line-up:
1: Ackley
2: Saunders
3: Seager
4: Jaso (DH)
5: Smoak
6: Olivo (C)
7: Robinson
8: Thames
9: Ryan
SP: Iwakuma
The M’s made a roster move today, optioning Shawn Kelley to Tacoma to make room for Charlie Furbush, who came off the DL. Kelley’s been quite effective by FIP and K% this year, but he’s struggled a bit if you look at win probability. He’s got the worst Win Probability Added of any player on the team (now that League and Delabar play elsewhere), and he’s got the worst WPA/LI. The reason’s pretty simple: Kelley’s has racked up the most “meltdowns” on the team (again, excluding League), and he has the worst ratio of “shutdowns” to “meltdowns” in the ‘pen (excluding Steve Delabar). (Meltdowns are a great stat-geek alternative to the ‘blown save’ and are calculated as a reliever who dropped his team’s chance of winning by 6% or more in his appearance). I think most stat-savvy fans would argue that the strikeout and strikeout-to-walk ratio numbers are “truer” than the WPA stuff, which is almost 100% the product of sequencing. But even the geekiest of fans were getting nervous when Brandon League came into the game, and I’m pretty sure the M’s coaching staff is feeling the same way about Kelley right now. Brandon League had a FIP of 3.39 with the M’s this year – exactly the same as Kelley’s. I’m sure plenty of people would agree that he was partially – partially – the victim of bad luck, but I don’t recall anyone objecting to his trade. I like Shawn Kelley, and think he’s going to be a solid mid-inning reliever, but I’m not exactly dumbfounded that the M’s chose to send him down instead of Carter Capps. Josh Kinney would’ve been a possible candidate if he had options left, but he doesn’t. And Kinney’s been tougher on righties than Kelley – Kinney’s fanned 40% of RHBs he’s faced, compared to Kelley’s 25%. Shawn Kelley’s probably frustrated right now, and I get that, but I think this has more to do with how deep the M’s are in right-handed relievers. Kelley’s a major league arm who may get the chance to be a 7th inning guy somewhere else next year.
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103 Responses to “Game 120, Twins at Mariners”
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The Mariners are now .500 since May 28. I wonder how long it has been since they played 2.5 months of .500 ball.
Here’s hoping Saunders stops hitting the ball right at people tonight! For a while I was concerned about the constant groundouts, but lately he’s been making decent contact a fair bit of the time – the ball’s just been going right at people.
I’d still like to see him get back to being “patient Michael” though, that may have something to do with it.
I’m also not sure there should EVER be a lineup that has both Jaso and Olivo in it.
It was actually just last year leon.
The Mariners were 43-43 over halfway through the season, over three months of baseball at .500, but then disaster struck, for 17 long games.
I really don’t ever want to see Olivo play ever.
A 100 million payroll and a bad team. Why does that sound familiar?
.500 since May 28? I can’t tell you how angry that makes me. What’s the point of spring training if you are making April and May roster moves that should have been made in February and March? This happens all the time. Not that we were going to be contenders, the believe the adage that pennants aren’t won in April and May but they can be lost during those months. Well, there you go, except that in our case it’s a .500 record.
I agree with you, Paul. No Montero after a day off – when facing one of the worst RHP’s in the game.
There ya go Westy! He hit it where they ain’t!
More like that Michael.
Maybe Jaso should have been playing in April, huh enables?
Alright! Jaso sure made him pay for the location of that pitch.
Stupid auto correct.
Jaso, way to go! Lueke (sp?)is buried in AAA with Tampa Bay. Great trade, Jack!
I can’t believe how Smoak is incapable of hitting a line drive. How could he have gotten this far only able to hit grounders and slow flies?
Mariners pitchers have now been perfect for eleven straight inings.
Olivo!!
Well, that answers that. He Punished that pitch. Holy crickey!
I suppose Olivo will be starting tomorrow.
Yeah Paul, nothing is ever going to correct to “wabbles” unless it’s done by those pesky “weebles”.
Just got back from dinner – saw Saunders hit while I was getting caught up though, and Jaso’s homer!
Now Olivo cheapens it, just a bit… hehehe This pitcher is not good. Olivo can really pound a mistake though! Dude is STRONG…
We should just start calling wabbles “enables”.
Can we just put Jaso on the five dollar bill now and Felix on the twenty?
If Wedge isn’t comfortable moving Montero to first – why not try Olivo over there? I’d rather see him hit right now than Smoak…
Like it Walter!
I wish he’d quit doing that.
Is Guti suiting up because he has been doing baseball related workouts with the Big team, or is it because he needs to be in uniform to sit on the bench as a non-staffer? Any word of a new date for a rehab assignment for him?
Noesi is perfect through two…
Mariners perfect through 11
Anyone seen Noesi? Does he look like anything has changed?
12
12
C’mon Nostra-Westy…
Mike, is that an official rule – they need to be uniformed to be on the bench? The trainer and some other guys certainly aren’t.
ARGH! I typed Noesi! I meant Iwakuma. That’s embarrassing…
Saunders should
homerhit it to the third baseman here.Saunders hit it hard, at least.
I don’t think it’s a rule but I know Carpenter is with St. Louis in uniform and he’s out for the year.
Here I thought you were reporting on a Rainiers game!
So, has Sims effectively dispelled the notion of not mentioning no hitters or perfect games while they are in process … Since he is leading all announcers in that category, with 3 this season?
He “enables” an entirely new thought process.
I know some old managers like Connie Mack used to wear suits in the dugout.
It’s sad I’d much rather see Smoak at first then Figgy at third.
I think Connie was the last, but he was probably the last owner to manage. Well, except for one day when Ted Turner tried it.
Smoak is in a bad spot right now – it’s too bad Carp got hurt. Justin should be focussing on fixing his swing rather than being forced up in front of us fans.
Wait, isn’t the lady on that commercial the same one that’s married to Jack?
I think it was MLB that made Johnny Pesky take off the Red Sox uniform. Real classy.
Smoak or Figgins…
Measles or Chicken Pox?
Major League Baseball – putting the “ass” into “class”.
That’s why I mentioned Guti was a non-staffer. I think players need to be in uniform, but am not entirely certain. I have never seen a player on the bench (on the IR or active) who wasn’t in uniform, so maybe/likely.
As I understand it baseball managers wear uniforms because they’re he only coaches in sports who can enter the field of play – it would look stupid to go out to the mound looking like Pat Riley.
SAVING THE PERFECTO! hahahahahahaha
Good catch .
I’m sure you guys are right about the uni’s – I just don’t know.
Do high school / college managers wear the uniform?
13..
This can’t be happening
IWAKUMA perfect through 4…
What did the Mariners do at the end of the game before last?
Just wondering what kind of team streak we have going.
2 for 2 Olivo.haha
Guess that is why Olivo is playing, Wedge has his numbers against Blackburn.
Wow, Fielder is even fatter now.
There was a double in the 9th in the pre-Felix game
Ah, too bad. Still, quite a few perfect innings so far.
Sunny Bono’s widow is apparently married to Connie Mack’s great-grandson.
Ooh – nice little flip
Sonny, my friend
Whoops! Thanks Walter.
NOOOOOOOOOO……..
Well, there goes the string.
So, any word on Guti … Other than the fact that we can all see he is wearing a uniform and by all accounts is not married to any descendants of Connie Mack or Sony Bono?
No more perfecto. Okay, bare down – keep getting outs.
Come on Brendan. Come on!
Soni Bowknow
Bad throw but Seager should have caught it.
I think I’ll go back to playing Red Dead Redemption
I want to see Iwakuma break his 1 homer a game string.
22 scoreless innings
Sony vision.
I think the last news I heard on Guti was regarding the latest setback – several days ago. That was when Marc opined they should just shut him down and have him play winter ball.
Random factoid. Kawasaki has twice as many walks as Olivo.
Ichiro is batting .756 since leaving the Mariners, is dating Cameon Diaz and is the new judge on American Idol. I rounded it up.
If they can get him back for the entire month of September, they should go for it. If not, yeah – I probably have to agree with Marc. What a year for Guti and Carp. This season has raised more questions than it answered, so far – by far, for several areas where answers were needed.
I’d watch a show where Ichiro is a judge.
Hehe, I had to go look after that!
Ichiro is hitting .300/.325/.425 since going to the Yankees! Why oh why do they always get better after they leave?
This half inning is in slow motion.
human rain delay
Iwakuma’s splitter is something.
Great job getting out of that mess, but I think the glacier is gaining ground again.
He got through it though. Only one run with the error.
Mariner wives – it looks like they all married the same woman. Are they factory-built?
How many pitches has Saunders seen in his 3 AB’s tonight … Did he put the first pitch in play each time up?
Second AB was 2 pitches.
Smoak!
Was that…. A line drive by Smoak?
Trayvon Robinson is having quite a game tonight!
Ump seems to be squeezing the zone a bit.
Good job Ackley. Wedge wanted to give him a chance to hit in an easier RBI situation, I guess. I think Ryan could have moved the runner without a bunt, but a run is a run.
You’re giving Wedge more credit than I do, Mike.
That was a tough catch by Florimon.
Wedge was playing for “A” run, and that is what he got. Now, if he could just find a way to get one – every inning.
Yikes… good thing we got those insurance runs.
Poor Saunders, having to play the tag-along at the hospital visit one day after Felix’s perfect game!
Yay, it’s FELIX!!!! Oh, and that other guy…
Pretty good chance nobody at the hospital would have recognized Saunders if he had not been with Felix. He’s lucky to be able to tag along – IMO
It was pretty cool that Felix went to the hospital, in any case. He seems to be a good guy.
And yeah, other than Felix and Ichiro (sniff), is there any other Mariner that’d be recognized on the street?
What does Wilhelmsen weigh… about 130?
Miggy … From all the bruising.
That guy must be made of Kevlar.
Yeah, apart from all the complaints I’ve made regarding his play – Miggy may be the toughest dude I’ve ever seen on a baseball diamond.