The Value Of Quality Role Players
The Mariners are 59-64, and have the best record in the American League since the All-Star break. They’ve scored as many runs as they’ve allowed on the season. The’re playing baseball in a way that has to encourage you about the improving state of talent on the franchise.
And in the midst of it all, Dustin Ackley, Jesus Montero, and Justin Smoak have combined for +0.8 WAR this season.
Seriously, that might be the most amazing part of the team’s improvement. Those three guys came into the year as the core of the offense, the guys who were going to make this team go. Ackley was the best position player on the team, and the one young guy who didn’t come with many question marks about his performance. Smoak was more of a lottery ticket, but there were reasons to think he could take a step forward offensively. Montero was a right-handed bat with opposite field power who could drive the ball out of Safeco. Everything else about the line-up was concerning, but if those three hit, then we thought the team could take a step forward.
Well, those three haven’t hit. In 1,328 trips to the plate, those three have hit .230/.289/.353, good for a 77 wRC+. They haven’t walked, they haven’t made contact, and they haven’t hit for power. You have to squint really hard to find any positives in their performances this year. They’ve all been pretty bad.
And yet, the team is still competitive. With the three most important position players all falling on their faces, they’re still winning games. This is the value of building a roster that produces value from all corners, and isn’t simply a bunch of big named, high-priced guys whose performance dictates all.
The team is winning because they picked up John Jaso over the winter, and he’s been one of the best left-handed hitters in baseball this year. He’s at +2.4 WAR in part-time duty, and has basically provided the offense that the team hoped they would get from Ackley.
The team is winning because they picked up Brendan Ryan the winter before, and they had the fortitude to stick with him during his early season slump. While he’s not a big offensive contributor, his defense at shortstop is invaluable, and he’s been worth +1.7 WAR in 364 PAs, again displaying that he’s an above average Major League shortstop.
The team is winning because they kept Michael Saunders around for one more year, giving him one last chance to show that his tools could turn into big league performance. While he’s had his ups-and-downs, Saunders has played a quality center field this year and provided more offense than anyone expected, producing +1.7 WAR while filling in admirably for Franklin Gutierrez.
The team is winning because they signed Kevin Millwood and Hisashi Iwakuma to stabilize the back-end of the rotation and provide quality innings that allowed them to not rush the kids too fast. Between them, they’ve thrown 217 innings and produced +2.3 WAR, essentially teaming up to make one league average starter for a fraction of what solid, healthy innings eaters sign for every winter.
The team is winning because Tom Wilhelmsen and Charlie Furbush have turned into lights out relievers, giving the team a dynamic late-inning shut-down reliever from each side. While relievers are often overrated, these two have combined for +2.3 WAR in just under 100 innings pitched. They’re really good.
Jaso, Ryan, Millwood, and Iwakuma were all the product of dumpster dives, where the team identified potential value in a player that the rest of baseball had little interest in. They’ve produced the kind of value that essentially makes up for the fact that Ackley, Montero, and Smoak haven’t hit. You can’t win it all with your core players slumping and the role players carrying the load, but these guys are showing just how valuable building a complete roster actually is.
Baseball is a team sport. It might be more flashy to land a guy like Prince Fielder, but building a team through finding value at multiple positions is a better way to go. The Mariners didn’t make the splashy moves last winter, but they made a lot of good moves that flew under the radar. And those moves have essentially saved the franchise from another disastrous seasons, since the big moves the team has made simply haven’t worked.
Pretty soon, Jack’s going to have make some big moves that work. You can’t just rely on dumpster dives to provide value. But, as this team is showing, these kinds of small acquisitions can really make a difference, and they shouldn’t be ignored simply because they’re not headline grabbers. Role players matter, and good teams find useful bit pieces by hunting around and finding value. The Mariners deserve credit for doing exactly that last winter.
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I remember Jack Z making the point about role players a couple of years ago in a TNT article, both their value and that they can be found just about anywhere if you recognize talent.
Nice post. It appears Jack Z and co. are really good at the small moves. A couple lesser moves that you did not mention are the addition of Luetge through Rule 5 and the Oliver Perez signing. They’ve built quite a good bullpen out of next to nothing.
While I am still angered by the way Wedge buried Jaso and Iwakuma on the bench early in the season, the point about sticking with Ryan is a good one. Even some of the posters here at USSM (though only a minority) wanted to bench Ryan. But Wedge made the right non-move and kept trotting Ryan out to SS (granted he didn’t have a lot of alternatives). That’s one example of good roster usage by Wedge, though counterbalanced by the two negative ones; even now I think he uses Olivo a bit too much.
It’s interesting that the quality role players this year are a mix of youngsters and vets. Most of the players brought in via dumpster diving in the last few years have been, well, garbage.
I still think we need a couple of veteran outfielders and possibly a first baseman. I’m still interested in Carp, still interested in the possibility of Montero there. But maybe a one year deal for a veteran first baseman would be a good idea as well?
I agree that Jack has to do better with free agent signings. I just hope he’s given the dough to do so. Certainly should be if this team finishes this season strong.
They’ve put together a team that can compete, but to take the next step major money and commitments are going to have to happen.
Two new outfielders (one IF Guti can get back 100%), 1B, C, SS.
And if Seager and Ackley don’t improve, then you need to replace them as well.
The future is looking bright, but this next off-season is a critical one.
Jaso, Ryan, and Seager have been three of the team’s best position players, but yeah, the team totally needs to go spend a lot of money on C/SS/3B.
Stop reading the local newspapers and think for yourself.
I really wish we could project Thames to perform as well as Ryan or Jaso next year based on the fact that he basically cost about the same. Given enough time, Z could probably assemble a contending team simply by trading minor league relief pitchers for league average role players. Felix plus league average everywhere else puts us about 5 games over .500, which is technically contending with two wild card spots.
Absolutely agree Dave.
Ackley has been worth 1.7 WAR and projects to finish the year at 2.3 WAR. He’s been fine. Don’t think you should lump him in with the rest.
I wouldn’t go out and spend a lot on catcher, shortstop, or 3rd base. Zunino has been tearing up the minors and is actually hitting better in AA (small sample size warning). The M’s have Jaso and Montero so signing another catcher wouldn’t be a great use of resources. I would just wait for Zunino. For shortstop, Ryan is great and Nick Franklin may stick at short, while Truenfel may take a step forward too. For 3rd, there is Seager who has played really well and you have Franklin, who may not stick at short (I’m assuming if he has a an arm for short, it is good for 3rd but may be wrong).
If I were running things, I would take a run at Melky Cabrerra for a cheap contract, try to get Josh Hamilton for something like 4 years $60 Million (who knows what he will get next year with his troubles) and try to see if I could snag Grienke or Haren for a reasonable deal since they aren’t doing so well. Also, I’d try to see if Tom Wilhelmsen could keep up with the improved changeup and try to see how he would do as a starter, while relying on Capps or Pryor to step up and finish games.
My questions is what will happen with Ackley and Montero with regards to their performance next year. If they can get past their issues this year and fulfill their potential next year and the year after, this time could become quite good with Cerberus and Zunino/Franklin looking imminent.
Thurston,
Do you really believe it is a good idea to Make the “Bartender” a starter? Really??
Great article. I believe Z will have money to spend this off season. Ichiro’s contract is off the books. I suspect he will go for 2-4 players at $3-6 million per player. This would diversify the risk.
Wait, Melky tested positive and admitted to doping. You would sign him?
Nice breakdown, Dave.
A healthy, productive Guti and a small step forward from Saunders/Wells/Thames/etc – and the OF is pretty well covered – without having to spend any money. A healthy productive Guti is probably a pipe dream, so bringing in one quality OF via trade or FA is certainly an appealing idea.
The team needs production from 1B. Above average Major League production from 1B in concert with steps forward from Ackley, Montero, etc – and things start to look a lot rosier.
A one-year Hiroki Kuroda type – to stabilize the starting rotation next year – and a little time waiting for Cerberus/Erasmo to emerge… and the light at the end of the tunnel starts to get even brigter.
I like a potential starting rotation for next season of Felix, New Guy, Vargas, Iwakuma and whomever is most ready from within the organization.
The team does not need to spend a bunch of money in the offseason in order to improve. It won’t prevent 30 off-season articles being written by Geoff Baker – to the contrary – but what more needs to be said about that?
I realize the point of the post is about role players, but I agree that Ackley should not be lumped in with Smoak and Montero. It’s obvious that Ackley has underperformed relative to his talent, but a ~2 WAR 24-year-old who has been worth 4.4 WAR in ~900 PAs in his career should not be a candidate for replacement. The same cannot be said of the other two, especially in the case of Smoak who probably shouldn’t be given another chance to start.
Two outfielders needed, minimum (See Robinson, T. plate appearances 2012). Thin free agent crop. Risky expensive trade targets (see Upton, J). And it wont be only Geoff Baker calling for Jack Z.s head if the M’s don’t make the playoffs next year. “Pretty soon, Jack’s going to have make some big moves that work”. Word.
Does anyone with inroads to the team have any idea what payroll will be in the coming years? Will they open up the coffers as the window of contention draws near or will they stand pat? I would love to see what Z could do if given a $120mil payroll as Bavasi was given. On the other hand, if the powers that be DON’T open up the coffers, it will be really irritating that they would entrust that much money to Bavasi but not Z . . .
while Truenfel may take a step forward too
If you’re referring to the player I think you are, he’s an injury riddled, brutally bad defender who hasn’t shown anything interesting on the offensive side since 2008–and even then he was repeating a level. Come on.
This team, surrounding Griffey, A-Rod, Randy, Edgar… That would be something.
As is, Felix can play Randy kinda sorta. No position player is close.
The big question, in my mind, is when does it make sense to make the big moves that eventually must come.
This offseason perhaps?
Carlos Triunfel is the same age as Brad Miller.
Dave had previously argued the team should look for a good outfield addition. If Guti manages to stay healthy, then the M’s can deal with the surplus guys – but you can’t bank on it. Some really talented guys are just fragile, unfortunately.
I’m also encouraged by Saunders’ apparent ability to hit lefties with his rebuilt swing, which means you don’t necessarily have to think of him as a platoon guy. Still – I hope we see the team spend some money on a quality corner outfielder, and probably a first baseman. I’m not writing off Carp, for what it’s worth – but I’m talking about picking up guys whose bats are significantly better than Saunders (or the “good” version of Carp) without giving it all away with their gloves.
I still think Ackley will come around.
I don’t know how realistic it is to compete with Texas in the next few years; but, even with Trout – the Angels may be vulnerable, with all the money they’ve got tied up in aging players*. Of course Oakland knows this too, and Beane has shown an ability to pull rabbits out of his hat far too often. But maybe, just maybe, the wildcard is within the team’s reach in the reasonably near term.
*I know, I know – we’ve thought that before.
A healthy, productive Guti and a small step forward from Saunders/Wells/Thames/etc – and the OF is pretty well covered – without having to spend any money. A healthy productive Guti is probably a pipe dream, so bringing in one quality OF via trade or FA is certainly an appealing idea.
The team needs production from 1B. Above average Major League production from 1B in concert with steps forward from Ackley, Montero, etc – and things start to look a lot rosier.
Go look at the FA market for the offseason. These are not going to be easy problems to address.
The M’s have Jaso and Montero so signing another catcher wouldn’t be a great use of resources.
Montero is probably not a catcher. His bat is a lot less special if he is a 1B/DH, as Dave mentioned a while back– and this year has definitely shown he likes to take his hacks (less than 6% walk rate, 19% K rate- hard to see anyone turn into a great hitter with those numbers).
I realize the point of the post is about role players, but I agree that Ackley should not be lumped in with Smoak and Montero. It’s obvious that Ackley has underperformed relative to his talent, but a ~2 WAR 24-year-old who has been worth 4.4 WAR in ~900 PAs in his career should not be a candidate for replacement. The same cannot be said of the other two, especially in the case of Smoak who probably shouldn’t be given another chance to start.
Dave isn’t saying that. What he’s saying is Ackley has gone from being someone producing at an All-Star level at the plate to being Brendan Ryan- almost all his value is glove, no bat.
Will they open up the coffers as the window of contention draws near or will they stand pat? I would love to see what Z could do if given a $120mil payroll as Bavasi was given.
There isn’t anyone in this FA market WORTH blowing open your payroll to $120 million for.
Two outfielders needed, minimum (See Robinson, T. plate appearances 2012). Thin free agent crop. Risky expensive trade targets (see Upton, J). And it wont be only Geoff Baker calling for Jack Z.s head if the M’s don’t make the playoffs next year.
I think this comment wins the thread. This team is going to have to be very creative and make a lot of right calls on their talent in the offseason, because taking this team from a shade under .500 to contention is tough, and it is not particularly clear that just writing checks will get it done. It can be done (Billy Beane from last year to this year, the D’Back from 2010->2011), but it’s not going to be easy, given how the team’s talent is configured (thin in the hitting positions, deeper in pitching and middle infield).
M’sfanmike, why do you want the team to spend no money? The goal isn’t to have the biggest bargain in baseball, it is to have the best team in baseball. If we have to spend money to get good players/resign our good players, then so be it.
Maybe that is what you think to, but either way:
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8271541/the-veil-opulence-whether-really-relate-everyone-sports
is enlightening.
I agree that this coming FA class is not great, my comment regarding $120 mil isn’t for this winter alone, but over the next 2-3 years as our talent reaches the bigs. If we were to ramp up to that level over the next few offseasons with the idea being that 2014-2016 is our targeted window, seems that a pretty stellar team could be put together.
Wait, Melky tested positive and admitted to doping. You would sign him?
That’s the only reason to consider signing him; he might be a bargain.
Carlos Triunfel is the same age as Brad Miller.
How many consecutive years of zero or negative progress does it take to remove someone from the “prospect” category? 6? 7? We’re finishing up year five here.
Youth does not make you a prospect.
M’sfanmike, why do you want the team to spend no money? The goal isn’t to have the biggest bargain in baseball, it is to have the best team in baseball. If we have to spend money to get good players/resign our good players, then so be it.
bavasiisgarbage, you might remember that guy your user name is about? The one who spent $117 million on a team that was garbage? Yeah, him. That’s what we don’t want- an expensive, bad team.
Spend money intelligently? Sure. Keep Felix and back up the Brinks truck? I’m in (in fact, frontloading a new contract for Felix in 2013-2014 might not be a bad idea). But don’t spend money just because you have a checkbook.
For instance, let’s say we’d have signed this guy in the 2009 offseason for 4 years,, $66 million instead of Chone Figgins, a left fielder coming off of a .921 OPS season, career OPS of .850. Sounds great, right?
Whoops, that’s Jason Bay.
The bottom line is you want to avoid the Bays, Sexsons and Figginses of the world. Just opening the checkbook for everyone is a guarantee you’ll hit those guys.
I agree that this coming FA class is not great, my comment regarding $120 mil isn’t for this winter alone, but over the next 2-3 years as our talent reaches the bigs. If we were to ramp up to that level over the next few offseasons with the idea being that 2014-2016 is our targeted window, seems that a pretty stellar team could be put together.
The team has to perform on the field and at the gate to get there. Let’s see what they do in 2013 before we start planning ramp-ups. I can guarantee you the payroll expansion won’t show up before the fans do.
Nick Swisher. There I said it.
Since when did a losing record translate into the use of the words “winning” and “competitive”. It’s been exciting to watch them play recently, but let’s not forget how streaky this team really is. I guess it comes down to what you consider a successful season?
Montero is #12 in the league in OPS vs. lefthanders, and #7 in BA. He’s 22 years old.
He’s not ‘falling on his face’.
This article hints arounds some ideas I have had swirling in my head.
Are platoon players undervalued? Jaso has been awesome for us, and he didn’t have a great year last year, but we got him for a steal. Are there other platoon players who other teams don’t us correctly that we can steal? I am not saying platoon all nine (counting DH) positions, but does it hurt to have three platoon spots as long as some of them can play multiple positions?
You’d need Mark McLemore types who could play both infield and outfield well in order for that to be effective.
Agree with earlier post, M’s need to focus on bringing in a corner OF and a 1B. Montero has essentially been a replacement level player, but I think we can expect more as he is only 22. Ackley, I am worried, but still expect more. Smoak, I am very worried about. To the point that 1B seems to be one of the most logical positions to look for an upgrade. I hope Smoak figures it out and IS the upgrade, but I am not holding my breath.
Agree with the sentiment of the article, I love teams that are more than just a few star players. We are starting to have a foundation that can really be built upon.
Well, now that we’ve already established that the upcoming FA class is weak, what about possible trade targets?
How about Shin-soo Choo?
Montero is #12 in the league in OPS vs. lefthanders, and #7 in BA. He’s 22 years old.
He’s not ‘falling on his face’.
Would you accept “falling on his face against righthanders, who make up 70% of all pitchers”?
A lefty-masher who can’t run or play defense isn’t entirely useless, but it’s not much of a building block either. I’m not giving up on him, but let’s not pretend his development this year hasn’t been very discouraging, and our projections need to be downgraded.
Cowdoc,
I would absolutely try to start the Bartender. He throws 96, has a plus plus curve, and a potential plus changeup developing. He has the makings of at least a good #3 pitcher if not higher, which is much more valuable than a closer. If he can’t cut it, stick him back in the bullpen and watch him dominate.
At Bavasi: the team would not need to spend much money in order to improve. I suggested a fA signing or trade.
As Eponymous pointed out, the suggestions I made will be met with a thin FA market. Via trade or FA signing, the team could improve its outfield. It doesn’t mean it will be easy to accomplish. Via FA signing (more than likely) the team could bolster next years starting rotation.
“A lefty-masher who can’t run or play defense isn’t entirely useless, but it’s not much of a building block either. I’m not giving up on him, but let’s not pretend his development this year hasn’t been very discouraging, and our projections need to be downgraded.”
Are we really already giving up on a guy after his first year in the majors? Isn’t the fact that he IS showing that he can already hit left handed players a decent start? Geez…
I wouldn’t give up on Montero, he just needs to make adjustments against right handers, which he has been doing. I don’t know what his future position will be, but hopefully he starts mashing the next year or two. However, remember that power hitters typically take a little longer to develop so he has some time.
And he hits a dinger off a righty just one minute after I post that. Thanks for making me look good Jesus.
Thurston,
To establish a reliever as a starter would take time. During that time you are without a proven closer. Capps and Pryor are really not ready, they both have control problems and mediocre secondary stuff. Triple digit fastball a closer does not make!!! We really have no one else to be a terrific closer like Wilhelmsen has been. To make him a starter you lose at least a year if it does not work. We have other starters that are closer to filling up the back of the rotation.
I agree Montero is showing great promise. What did everybody think?? He was going to be an instant All Star! Thurston is right.. They need to figure where he can play in the field and let him develop! Oh, and get him a speed coach! ha!
Did you see how far he hit that homer tonight? Good God!!