What A Contract Extension for Felix Might Look Like

Dave · August 22, 2012 at 8:52 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

For the last year, the Mariners have made it very clear that they weren’t interested in trading Felix Hernandez. People kept calling and Jack kept saying no. He wanted to build around Felix, not use Felix to get new building blocks. Now that Felix has thrown a perfect game, is turning into a local hero, and the team is playing quality baseball, that plan no longer looks so far fetched. And so, it’s time for the organization to finally put the Felix trade rumors to rest, and sign him to another long term contract.

He’s said he wants to be here. The Mariners want to keep him, and rightfully so. Any thought of trading Felix should be dismissed at this point – it would undo all of the good will the organization is rebuilding with the fan base right now. No amount of prospects are worth telling your fans to stop being excited about the franchise and go back to ignoring baseball for a few more years. Winning with Felix is the best plan the Mariners have, and they can start their off-season shopping by getting their franchise player locked up beyond 2014.

So, what would it take to get him locked up? Maybe not as much as you might think.

Felix is currently owed $39.5 million over the next two seasons before he’d be eligible for free agency. To figure out how much the M’s would have to tack on to those two years, we can look at what other pitchers have gotten when they’ve decided to re-sign with their clubs in recent years. Using MLBTradeRumor’s Extension Tracker, and filtering for pitchers who have gotten extensions with between 3-6 years of service time, we get the following contracts for premium young pitchers:

Cole Hamels: 6 years, $144 million, limited no-trade
Matt Cain: 5 years, $112 million,
Jered Weaver: 5 years, $85 million, full no-trade
Justin Verlander: 5 years, $80 million
Felix Hernandez: 5 years, $78 million, limited no-trade

Hamels and Cain were both just a few months away from achieving free agency, Weaver signed his deal with one year and a couple of months left on his contract, and Verlander and Felix both signed their extensions when they were two years away from hitting the market. As you can see from the difference in salaries, the size of a player’s extensions is heavily determined by how close he is to being a free agent. Hamels and Cain are very good pitchers, but they got more than Verlander and Felix by waiting longer to sign their contracts, thus taking on more risk and gaining more leverage in negotiations. Once you start getting close to the point where you can let the market dictate your price, you can demand a significant amount more than if you’re several years away from that position.

Felix is several years away from free agency. That doesn’t mean the Mariners can low-ball him, but it does mean that they don’t have to guarantee him the same money he’d get if he was a free agent this winter. When you think about what Felix is worth, and what he might get as a free agent, you probably start thinking that he would have a shot at being the first pitcher to get $200 million. Two years from free agency, however, it’s a good bet that he’d settle for half of that.

Using the previous history of guys two years from free agency, the M’s could offer Felix an additional $105 million over five years, and it wouldn’t be insulting in the least. That would bring his total guaranteed compensation to $145 million over seven years, making it the second largest commitment a team has ever made to a pitcher, behind only the contract CC Sabathia got from the Yankees, when he was a free agent and was negotiating with significant leverage. Adding 5/105 to his current deal would push him past Hamels, so everyone could accurately call it the largest contract extension ever given to a pitcher. And it would blow away what Weaver and Cain got, even though both were closer to free agency when they signed their deals.

Honestly, if Felix doesn’t care about getting past Hamels, it might not even take that much. The gap between what that offer would guarantee Felix and the comparable extensions for other high quality pitchers is really large, and would put Felix in a class by himself. Depending on how comfortable they are with making an initial offer that is a bit lower, they might even be able to get something done by adding on something like 4/85, which would push his total guarantee to 6/125 and still have him come out ahead of Cain, Weaver, and Verlander. And, if Felix’s words are to be believed, he cares more about making sure he’s in Seattle than he does about collecting as much money as possible, so the team could offer him a full no-trade clause to buy down some of the price. No-trades are of significant value to players, and they often take significantly less money to get them. Since the Mariners plan is essentially to sink or swim with Felix, giving him a no-trade is worth considering, especially if he’ll knock $10-$15 million off the sticker price to get one.

If Felix was just interested in maximizing his total income, then he might say he’s better off waiting until he gets to free agency, but if Felix was about maximizing total income, then he wouldn’t have forfeited the right to become a free agent at age 25 to begin with. The Mariners can make Felix a legitimate offer in the 4-5 year, $85-$105 million range tacked on the end of his current deal, and everyone can just cement this as a relationship that is built to last.

This should be step one of the team’s off-season plan. Tell every prospective free agent that you’ve just committed to build around your franchise player, and that Seattle is a team on the upswing with an ace that isn’t going anywhere. Any kind of long term deal for a pitcher is risky, but not keeping Felix is an even bigger risk. He’s bringing respectability back to Seattle, and re-energizing a group of fans that needed something to grab onto. Felix is what they’re grabbing onto. Let them keep hanging onto Felix for the foreseeable future.

Comments

54 Responses to “What A Contract Extension for Felix Might Look Like”

  1. rrwrayiii on August 22nd, 2012 8:58 pm

    Nice article. I enjoyed this post.

  2. lemonverbena on August 22nd, 2012 8:59 pm

    From your mouth to Chuck and Howard’s skull-holes.

  3. shamus on August 22nd, 2012 9:00 pm

    Dave – great article.

    You couldn’t see the mariners committing to a longer term (7+ years) contract in order to cement Felix for the rest of his career? Too much risk?

  4. Dave on August 22nd, 2012 9:04 pm

    Yeah, doesn’t make sense with a pitcher. There’s a reason they don’t get crazy long deals.

  5. 9inningknowitall on August 22nd, 2012 9:06 pm

    When the Latos deal first happened I was all for trading Felix because if Latos could bring that much, Felix could bring even more but after all that has happened this season, including the perfect game, I just can’t see Felix playing in a different uniform. Felix is now up there with Buhner and Dan Wilson for lifelong Mariners who once they put on a Mariners uniform, should never be allowed to take it off.

  6. Dave on August 22nd, 2012 9:16 pm

    Buhner and Dan Wilson…

    How about Edgar? Could we talk about him more like Edgar instead? Because comparing Felix to Dan Wilson is kind of insulting.

  7. Liam on August 22nd, 2012 9:20 pm

    Felix will get his 10 and 5 rights by 2016 anyway.

  8. just a fan on August 22nd, 2012 9:29 pm

    Dave, what is the highest you would accept on a four- and a five-year Felix extension?

    I’ve just always imagined it being $25 million times years.

  9. Alec on August 22nd, 2012 9:30 pm

    Now that I have a real income, $50 month are going away for my authentic Felix jersey and a trip to Seattle for the King’s Court next summer.

  10. MissouriMariner on August 22nd, 2012 9:30 pm

    I would much rather compare him to Edgar…Felix is special…

  11. Westside guy on August 22nd, 2012 9:33 pm

    I’ve been wondering when this topic would come up… and I concur wholeheartedly. I hope Jack Z is working on this even as we speak.

    Jack, please get this done! It would be a spectacular announcement to the city affirming the team’s commitment to winning. We all love Felix – so GET IT DONE!

  12. Westside guy on August 22nd, 2012 9:36 pm

    BTW I understand the point 9inningknowitall was trying to make – he wasn’t talking about talent level at all, just the idea of guys we revere in part because they were lifelong Mariners. There’s a special bond there between such players and their fans.

    But yeah, Felix is definitely an entire level above Buhner and especially Wilson in the talent department. Two levels even – or more.

  13. StorminGorman on August 22nd, 2012 9:40 pm

    I know you say a longer-term deal doesn’t make sense for a pitcher, Dave. But maybe there could be a bit of a Joey Votto vibe to a Felix contract: more years (six or seven?) but a not-completely-outrageous and constraining annual salary.

    What parallels do you see between the Reds/Votto and Mariners/Felix? I remember your FanGraphs piece about the impact of Votto’s deal. Here’s hoping the Mariners prompt a similar storyline with Felix.

    Bring on the TV money…

  14. Dave on August 22nd, 2012 9:44 pm

    Here’s a list of every 8+ year deal ever given to a pitcher.

    Dave Stieb – 11 years, $25 million
    Wayne Garland – 10 years, $2 million
    Mike Hampton – 8 years, $121 million

    That’s the whole list for good reason. Hitters don’t throw the ball for a living. They don’t break down at the same rate. They don’t just show up for work one day and suck, ala Tim Lincecum. It just doesn’t make sense to give a pitcher the same kinds of deals that you give to hitters.

  15. Thirteen on August 22nd, 2012 9:50 pm

    Speaking of handing out money… the Red Sox just put Adrian Gonzalez out on waivers. The Mariners get the fifth shot at him, behind the Twins (already have Morneau and Plouffe at the corners and too much payroll, need pitchers), Indians (owners have consistently shown unwillingness to spend), Royals (set for bats with Gordon, Moustakas and Butler at Gonzales’ positions), and Blue Jays (Lawrie, Encarnacion and Bautista). With Ichiro gone, the Mariners have the payroll space, and they have the hole at 1B.

    Dave, if he does fall to the Mariners, would you claim Adrian Gonzalez on waivers?

    To me, given that his contract appears to be roughly fair market value, that it represents a 3-4 WAR upgrade at 1B, that it would likely push the offense into above-average territory, that it likely forestalls any big-name FA acquisitions at the M’s biggest holes (one corner OF and one #2 SP), that it probably means giving up on Smoak, and that it would likely help reinterest the fan base or at least get Baker to shut up about spending… It’s a tough call. Certainly not a no-brainer like grabbing Lee would have been. I think I’d do it, though.

  16. Dave on August 22nd, 2012 9:52 pm

    It’s a formality. Players get placed on waivers every day in August. It doesn’t mean anything. He’s not available.

  17. Kazinski on August 22nd, 2012 10:00 pm

    With Felix’s youth, durability and work ethic he as low a risk as there is for giving a pitcher a long term deal. But of course cautionary tales like Barry Zito, who of course is a completely different pitcher, show what kind of risk there is to a club going too long and too high on a pitcher, even a Cy Young award winner that is still fairly young.

    Gonzales is on waivers so the Red Sox can explore what they could get if they traded him, not because they want to give him away. Now Carl Crawford on the other hand we could probably get off of waivers if they take him off the DL again despite his torn elbow ligament. But I think that is sufficient explanation why we don’t want him.

  18. californiamariner on August 22nd, 2012 10:07 pm

    Whatever it costs, pay him. Can you imagine what not retaining him would do to the credibility of the franchise? As Dave talked about with the “turning point,” things are looking up, and losing him would be such a crushing blow.

    Along the topic of money, I’m looking forward to Dave’s view of what the M’s should spend money on in the offseason. With Ichiro, League, Olivo off the books, and Figgins with one year left, there should be money for the front office to throw around. Will they keep going with lower key signings like the last couple years, or is it time to make a splash?

  19. Typical Idiot Fan on August 22nd, 2012 10:24 pm

    It’s a formality. Players get placed on waivers every day in August. It doesn’t mean anything. He’s not available.

    I don’t think it’s a formality at all. Considering Gonzalez’s possible involvement in the whole “players hate the manager” thing, this particular player being put on waivers was probably “leaked” for a reason. Maybe it’s a message, maybe it’s not.

    Anyway, is it my imagination, or are you having a bit more fun what with being able to post good things about the Mariners again?

  20. georgmi on August 22nd, 2012 10:36 pm

    Isn’t placing a player on waivers a public event? I don’t think there was any “leaking” involved.

  21. rsrobinson on August 22nd, 2012 10:37 pm

    Let’s get Felix locked up. The sooner the better, if for no other reason than to stop Rosenthal and others from constantly haranguing the M’s about trading him.

  22. nwade on August 22nd, 2012 11:01 pm

    So I loves me some Felix, but Dave you’ve done a good job educating me over the last 3 years… Pitchers are so volatile – what if we give him this extension and then in year 2 he blows his arm out (knock on wood!!). How badly is the team handcuffed if they owe him $25M/year for 3-4 years and they get 0 production from him? It’s quite a load to devote 25%-28% of your annual salary to one player (see exhibit A – Ichiro; whom I don’t dislike but who ate up a lot of salary. Or exhibit B – Figgins, who eats up a fraction of that amount but we all hate because of his incredible lack of production)

  23. Liam on August 22nd, 2012 11:05 pm

    Isn’t placing a player on waivers a public event? I don’t think there was any “leaking” involved.

    No, they are all leaks.

  24. justinh on August 22nd, 2012 11:25 pm

    Scouts have said Gonzalez is on the decline and is looking slower, less athletic. His OPS away from the bandbox is .750. If it was as simple as absorbing his huge contract I’d be all for it, but Boston is going to want a ton. You would be talking 2 of either Hultzen/Walker/Zunino just to start off. I think JZ can find some better alternatives.

  25. Westside guy on August 22nd, 2012 11:40 pm

    My understanding regarding August waivers – which comes from beat writers, so YMMV – is that most teams, as a matter of course, run pretty much all their players through waivers in August, even if they have no interest in parting with them. Most of the time a claim will come in on pretty much any worthwhile player, and the team just pulls the guy back. But occasionally some team will claim a guy and the original team will just say “fine, take him and his contract” – and, other times, the two teams might discuss a trade before a decision is made.

  26. The_Waco_Kid on August 22nd, 2012 11:40 pm

    Wasn’t it amazing timing that Felix pitched a perfecto so soon after we traded Ichiro? It’s been so frustrating to see this town stop caring about baseball. We need to get this done.

  27. dnc on August 23rd, 2012 12:33 am

    “You would be talking 2 of either Hultzen/Walker/Zunino just to start off.”

    First off, Zunino can’t be traded until next July.

    Secondly, that’s a Justin Upton type haul for Gonzalez, and Gonzalez doesn’t have anywhere near that kind of trade value. Dave had Upton at #23 in his trade value top series – Gonzalez didn’t make the top 50, and his absence wasn’t surprising or controversial. Given his production combined with his contract, he’s just not that valuable of an asset right now. Boston understands this.

    It would not cost that much to acquire Gonzalez, if he were available, unless Boston was planning on picking up a sizeable chunk of the contract.

    Regardless, it’s probably a moot point since he’s unlikely to be available. But if he is, he’s not costing Hultzen and Walker.

  28. TumwaterMike on August 23rd, 2012 1:18 am

    Wasn’t it amazing timing that Felix pitched a perfecto so soon after we traded Ichiro? It’s been so frustrating to see this town stop caring about baseball. We need to get this done.

    I don’t believe that one had anything to do with the other. It’s great that Seattle is starting to get back on the map as a baseball town though.

  29. Typical Idiot Fan on August 23rd, 2012 1:42 am

    Isn’t placing a player on waivers a public event? I don’t think there was any “leaking” involved.

    For whatever reason, this information is kept fairly confidential, or at least out of the public’s hands. It is generally understood that…

    My understanding regarding August waivers – which comes from beat writers, so YMMV – is that most teams, as a matter of course, run pretty much all their players through waivers in August, even if they have no interest in parting with them.

    …this is the matter of course, but it is never officially stated. Thus, someone telling a reporter that such and such person is actually put on the waiver wire is kind of interesting. The same thing happened with Cliff Lee a few weeks ago. It is curious why something like would be considered news if it is so routine for teams to do, but for some reason when a specific name comes out, it’s interesting.

    With Gonzo, though, I’m fairly certain there’s a reason behind it.

  30. maqman on August 23rd, 2012 2:10 am

    With the inherent fragility of pitchers, which has to be considered, plus the fact the team needs to keep Felix then an extension for a higher AAV but less years, such as $25MM for four years would reduce the albatross potential. A no-trade clause should appeal to both sides. A $22.5MM AAV for five years could be an alternative if the length of the extension is a big factor for Captain Fifi. I can see waiting until after the next season before making that big of a commitment.

  31. justinh on August 23rd, 2012 4:31 am

    DNC, actually Zunino could be dealt as a PTBNL starting in January. However, I don’t think we would give up Zunino.

    The fact is the Red Sox are asking for a great deal in return for Gonzo, at least they were in July when we inquired on him. If Gonzo is dealt, the Red Sox would like to include salary as part of a deal and in return take home a better package.

    There is very little chance this gets done as a waiver claim and if it does we would have to give up quite a bit for Gonzo. If you think this would get done without Hultzen or Walker or Paxton/Franklin as a starting point, you are wrong.

  32. dnc on August 23rd, 2012 5:47 am

    “DNC, actually Zunino could be dealt as a PTBNL starting in January.”

    Correct. Which means he isn’t germane to a discussion of a waiver trade for Gonzalez.

    “If Gonzo is dealt, the Red Sox would like to include salary as part of a deal and in return take home a better package.”

    Do you have a source for this or is this just speculation? I suspect you are correct, regardless.

    “If you think this would get done without Hultzen or Walker or Paxton/Franklin as a starting point, you are wrong.”

    Shifting goal posts is fun! I said it’s not going to require Hultzen AND Walker, which is what you stated. I definitely could see it requiring one of the two of them. But there’s no way Boston is getting two top 10-15 prospects in the game for Gonzalez, I don’t care how much salary they pick up.

    Gonzalez isn’t nearly that valuable.

  33. Mariners35 on August 23rd, 2012 6:49 am

    How much can the M’s hedge their bets through incentives? It’s a decent bet that Felix would hit innings goals, All Star Game, Cy Young a couple times or more, postseason appearances, etc. Perhaps that’s also a way to structure things to stretch out an extra year that they wouldn’t otherwise give, or to give him a fair deal that doesn’t break the bank.

    And I hope that people are right above about A-Gon on waivers simply because most everyone is put on waivers. I’m not interested in renting a fellow who is willing to lead a revolt against his manager after only half a season of losing with him. And I worry about what it would take to bring A-Gon here, as the M’s farm system is only barely recovering from the Bavasi years, and they need the depth to trade for outfield upgrades in the offseason.

    Although, yes, on paper, A-Gon fills an obvious hole at 1b… assuming he doesn’t succumb to the Safeco Effect like everyone else seems to… but really, this season he’s a what, 2.9 WAR player? At that pace, for the next couple months he would be a 1.5 WAR or so upgrade over Smoak. That doesn’t do much for this season, but given the depth chart at 1b is Smoak, Carp, and then people with obscene nicknames, a couple years of A-Gon if he has the right attitude is possibly worth it. Actually, it would be worth it just to stop hearing about how much the M’s need to move Montero off of C for the billionth time.

  34. stevemotivateir on August 23rd, 2012 7:34 am

    That last paragraph says it all. The message that re-signing him sends to FA’s and the fans, is incredibly valuable moving forward. That should be the first move this off-season.

  35. 9inningknowitall on August 23rd, 2012 8:41 am

    Westy was right that my comment wasn’t about talent it was about the connection that M’s fans have with players who are known as being life long Mariners. There is no lifelong Mariner that even compares to Felix in talent but in the overall connection to the fans Buhner and Wilson are still to this day actively doing things with the Mariners organization and the farm system. Edgar is better talent wise than Wilson and Buhner and still widely loved by the fans but he doesn’t have that same connection.

    Felix has that connection and the talent.

    Plus lets face it when you talk about Life Long Mariners there is a short list of people on that list. Alvin Davis was Mr. Mariner but wasn’t a life long mariner and has had little to no connection with the fans the past decade. Griffey wasn’t a lifer, Ichiro is a yankee and not a great fan connection.

  36. djw on August 23rd, 2012 9:18 am

    justinh,

    How did you get inside information on precisely how much the Red Sox front office is (over)valuing Gonzalez?

    If you don’t have inside information, you should probably dial back the certainty a few notches.

  37. thurston24 on August 23rd, 2012 9:28 am

    The Mariners aren’t getting Adrian Gonzalez because he would cost a fair amount. The Red Sox won’t give him away for just salary relief and his contract is really too much risk for the Mariners to take on without Boston paying some of it. I doubt Seattle even puts a claim on him.

  38. TheMightyMariner on August 23rd, 2012 11:41 am

    I’d love to see Felix stay and they should talk extension. If they can’t come to a new deal then look at suitors starting in spring or before. His value is at a very high point right now. If we can get actualy MLB ready stars in the making then we should look at a trade.

    Years ago I was hoping the M’s would deal Ichiro for some solid prospects. Way overpaid for a leadoff guy and he was getting older. I know Felix is young but he should bring a ton of talent. The Mariners are a long ways away from contention – lots of prospects but they don’t always become MLB stars.

    On the other hand you wonder if the Mariners will ever contend. The ownership seems to have no concerns over what happens and have limited the budget. They also let Bavasi steer the franchise into oblivion; we’re just starting to see some recovery from the Bavasi disaster.

    Finally, it was awesome to see so many out for Felix. However, I can’t blame the fans for staying away. It has been a decade of suck and we’re crawling along towards becoming an ok franchise.

  39. Dave on August 23rd, 2012 11:44 am

    Comments like that make me want to throw things.

    Think about baseball for yourself. Stop reading what the local rags produce in an effort to make you mad and drive up their page views. Take a look at what the team is actually doing, and stop buying into the sports radio crap.

    Don’t be a parrot.

  40. Paul B on August 23rd, 2012 12:23 pm

    Most of the time a claim will come in on pretty much any worthwhile player, and the team just pulls the guy back

    I thought the reason they did that was that if no one claimed him, then they could trade him. So a team that runs a bunch of guys through waivers is probably just trying to figure out which guys they could trade in time for the playoff rosters to be set. No?

    I remember a bunch of years ago the Yankees put in a claim on a DH type, to keep the team from trading him to the Red Sox probably, but then the team said “ok, he’s yours” and the Yankees had to play the rest of the season with like 3 DH’s.

    I also remember even more years ago, the Mariners put Mike Moore on waivers so they could trade him. This was back when there was sort of a gentlemen’s agreement not to put in claims for players waived after the trade deadline. Anyway, Oakland claimed Moore. He was a free agent at the end of the year, Oakland signed him and the Mariners got squat.

    I hate the A’s.

  41. peterp16 on August 23rd, 2012 12:30 pm

    Another consideration in the Mariners’ favor: since WA state has no income tax, in effect their offer equals somewhere in the neighborhood of a +10% advantage over an offer from, say, California or other location with a state income tax. I have little doubt that someone in Felix’ corner is pointing out this benefit of sticking in Seattle. I will conveniently ignore for the moment that TX also doesn’t have a state income tax.

  42. SonOfZavaras on August 23rd, 2012 12:32 pm

    Great article, Dave. Another in a long, long line of them. Kudos.

  43. nathaniel dawson on August 23rd, 2012 5:01 pm

    I remember a bunch of years ago the Yankees put in a claim on a DH type, to keep the team from trading him to the Red Sox probably, but then the team said “ok, he’s yours” and the Yankees had to play the rest of the season with like 3 DH’s.

    Jose Canseco, if I remember correctly.

    And a few years ago, the Red Sox put up Manny Ramirez and his $20MM contract, but no team bit on it. Teams will do this all the time with players they see as expensive and perhaps not worth what is owed to them, seeing if another team is desperate enough for the help right now to take them off their hands or offer them something worth more to them than keeping the player.

    The Red Sox don’t really want to part with Adrian Gonzalez, but if a team offered something that blew them out of the water, they’d take it.

    It is rather routine, but it’s not typically done with a whole roster, only those that a team might be willing to trade, would love if another team took off their hands (Figgins), or thinking of trading (like a Brandon League, if the M’s hadn’t traded him already). Like, you can bet that the Mariners didn’t put Felix on waivers. (at least, I really, really doubt that they would have, because what’s the point?).) Guys like Vargas, Millwood, Olivo, those are players that you might expect to go on waivers.

  44. henryv on August 23rd, 2012 5:10 pm

    100 year, 1 billion dollar contract.

    $10M per year is a fairly team-friendly, and that would effectively give him control of the team, which he deserves.

  45. stevemotivateir on August 23rd, 2012 5:44 pm

    @9inning

    In case you weren’t aware, Dan Wilson was with the Reds before he was a Mariner, and Jay Buhner was a New York Yankee.

    Edgar is active in the community and does some work with the organization. Check out “The Edgar Martinez Foundation” if you’re curious. He doesn’t sit in the media rooms for broadcasts and interviews regularly like some of the former players, but he’s active, and does have the connection. I’d argue Buhner doesn’t bring much to the table for the organization other than PR.

  46. stevemotivateir on August 23rd, 2012 5:53 pm

    @mightymariner

    Really, really, REALLY, advise reading through older posts before commenting. Hell, even posts from earlier today and yesterday! Your comment was one of the most generic forms of (mostly out-dated) rubbish I’ve seen in a while. I don’t mean to sound offensive, but man, that was annoying.

  47. wtnuke on August 24th, 2012 7:11 am

    Dave,

    Is this the type of deal that can actually add value to the organization long-term? As in, does the cost of signing someone like Felix to a longer-term extension pay for itself in the excitement it builds and the potential to draw in larger crowds over that period of time? Dumping that kind of money on one guy in Kansas City might not make sense, but here I feel like that contract becomes more of a long-term investment in rebuilding the interest of the fan base. Is there some way to calculate added value of a player over such a period?

  48. Jopa on August 24th, 2012 12:27 pm

    If they could get him for the amount and term suggested in the article that would be amazing, which is why I don’t at all agree with it as being possible.

    Felix would be better off waiting two years to earn a 10yr mega-deal, and he’ll get one, than to accept such a short extension at such a low price.

    I’m thinking +8yrs at $200 million. Maybe a bit off that for the security he gets not risking injury within the next two years. 8 at $160M, maybe.

  49. stevemotivateir on August 24th, 2012 12:57 pm

    ^Read Dave’s comment that listed all the 8+ year contracts for pitchers, then tell us if you still believe he’ll get a deal that large. Take a look at more current elite pitchers as well, like Hamels, Lee, Halladay, Sabthia, Weaver, Wilson, etc, and see if you notice a similarity in their contracts.

  50. Westside guy on August 24th, 2012 1:35 pm

    Jopa, as Felix (and others like Verlander) has already demonstrated by signing his current contract – pitchers will accept extensions to existing contracts and will trade the promise of more theoretical dollars down the road for trade long-term security. Pitchers’ agents are well aware of the injury risk pitchers face.

    Felix has always been a horse, but past performance is not 100% predictive of future results. That’s how the game works. He could blow out his shoulder next year and be looking at no money after the end of his existing contract, if he decides to wait for free agency.

  51. Westside guy on August 24th, 2012 1:41 pm

    On my post above – the word “trade” right ahead of “long-term security” should not exist. I was re-ordering the sentence for clarity and neglected to remove that second iteration of the word.

    So consider that a bonus “trade” for y’all.

  52. Jopa on August 24th, 2012 3:46 pm

    I understand the argument and I’ve factored that in because I think Felix, due to his youth and skill level, would land a contract at a whole new level.

    For example, if he were a free agent this off-season I think he could see a 10yr, $300 million contract. So, to me, an 8yr extension at $200 million already takes into account the discount for added security against future injury.

    You don’t have to agree. And if the M’s can keep him for much less, awesome.

  53. stevemotivateir on August 24th, 2012 3:58 pm

    Well, I wouldn’t bet on an eight year deal happening.

  54. The Ancient Mariner on August 24th, 2012 6:28 pm

    Well, to those who thought the Red Sox would want a king’s ransom for Adrian Gonzalez: apparently not.

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