Game 130, Mariners at Twins

Dave · August 28, 2012 at 1:15 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

Iwakuma vs Diamond, 5:10 pm.

Scott Diamond is exactly the type of pitcher you expect the Twins to have – a soft-tossing command lefty who doesn’t miss bats and outperforms his FIP. For years, the Twins have been building rotations with guys exactly like this. This year, it all fell apart, and Diamond is the only guy they have doing this. He’s also not likely to keep doing it for that much longer.

Diamond’s ERA is pretty sparkly, but look at his splits in the various baserunner states:

Bases Empty: .306/.331/.456, .339 wOBA
Men On Base: .225/.274/.343, .272 wOBA
RISP: .217/.281/.348, .276 wOBA

With the bases empty, Diamond has been a below average strike thrower. When people have gotten on base, his BABIP has gone through the floor and he’s managed to leave them there. This isn’t really a sustainable skill, though – Diamond’s splits are going to even out, and his ERA is going to go up, even if he doesn’t do anything differently.

He’s probably a decent #5 starter given his strikes and groundballs approach to the game, but he’s not as good as his 2012 numbers look. Of course, Liam Hendriks 2012 numbers were terrible and the Mariners got one run off of him, so who knows.

Ackley, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Seager, 3B
Montero, DH
Smoak, 1B
Olivo, C
Thames, RF
Robinson, LF
Ryan, SS

Comments

72 Responses to “Game 130, Mariners at Twins”

  1. Westside guy on August 28th, 2012 1:20 pm

    Saunders is still out with his tweaked groin muscle after the unintentional clotheslining by Mr. Thames.

    All I can say is – Guti, please make sure you’re at least 5 feet away from other players at any given time.

  2. dgood on August 28th, 2012 1:30 pm

    I thought Scott Diamond was suspended?

  3. groundzero55 on August 28th, 2012 1:32 pm

    He is appealing, so he is still allowed to pitch until the appeal is ruled on.

  4. stevemotivateir on August 28th, 2012 1:42 pm

    Wondering if someone has put a claim in for Vargas yet. I doubt he gets traded, but I’m still curious.

  5. snepp on August 28th, 2012 1:46 pm

    Are sub-4 FIP/xFIP’s signs of a #5 starter?

  6. nwade on August 28th, 2012 1:52 pm

    Ugh, I expect a lot of quick outs for our #6 through #9 hitters tonight… (not that I don’t like Thames and Robinson; but surrounding them with Olivo and Ryan just seems like a lot of likely outs)

  7. Jordan on August 28th, 2012 1:56 pm

    Smoak and Montero (lately) aren’t providing much help either.

  8. dfrankster on August 28th, 2012 2:11 pm

    I still can’t figure out how,why,and or the reasoning for batting Olivo any higher than 7th,or 8th in the line-up.

  9. stevemotivateir on August 28th, 2012 2:16 pm

    ^You could say the same thing about Smoak. I’m sure it’s the power potential that Wedge likes.

  10. Westside guy on August 28th, 2012 2:23 pm

    With the AAA season ending, there’s little hope of stashing Smoak down there after Carp is back. But I’m hoping Smoak is given an extended break in September – it’d probably be good for him, and it’ll certainly be good for us!

  11. Snuffy on August 28th, 2012 3:51 pm

    Smoak occasionally shows signs of life but he’s not looking like a good long term answer. Any chance we see Montero at 1b this year?

  12. stevemotivateir on August 28th, 2012 3:57 pm
  13. thurston24 on August 28th, 2012 5:09 pm

    Since it’s almost September, if Zunino keeps hitting like he has through the minors, I’m going to start the free Zunino campaign once Jackson is finished with their playoff run.

  14. Mud Falcon on August 28th, 2012 5:17 pm

    Diamond costs the Twins, what, 1/20th of a King Felix? at that price, I’d take a Diamond over a King any day of the week.

  15. Jordan on August 28th, 2012 5:31 pm

    1) Regression to the mean.
    2) 1 game playoff. You’d rather have Diamond?
    3) Sarcasm is difficult to interpret online. Are you being serious? If (huge if) the Mariners could score runs they are almost guaranteed no long losing streaks. Does Diamond instill that much confidence? Very few teams have a true ace. Felix is easily worth that much.

  16. Paul B on August 28th, 2012 5:52 pm

    The Mariners due frequently make mediocre pitchers look great.

    Phil Humber is the poster child.

  17. Adruidan on August 28th, 2012 5:57 pm

    I remember when Seagar was drafted. He was looked at as a “comfort guy” for Dustin Ackley. Boy were we wrong.

  18. Adruidan on August 28th, 2012 5:59 pm

    In fact, if Seagar were a second baseman, his stats would be pretty compared to the power 3rd baseman genre. I still believe in Ackley, but replacing Seagar with a power 3rd baseman and moving him to second would actually benefit the M’s more than keeping Ackley’s current performance at second.

  19. Paul B on August 28th, 2012 6:03 pm

    I am soooooo tired of seeing Olivo.

    What a horrible ballplayer.

  20. terryoftacoma on August 28th, 2012 6:04 pm

    So A wild pitch is his fault. Got ya.

  21. Paul B on August 28th, 2012 6:05 pm

    Power by itself is useless.

    Peguero says “hi”!

  22. Adruidan on August 28th, 2012 6:06 pm

    I really wished that Freddy Garcia trade was as good as it sounded when it happened. Olivo was horrible and still is. Jeremy Reed….liked his swing, hated his results. Ick.

  23. Adruidan on August 28th, 2012 6:07 pm

    And all this talk about Olivo’s defense. Once again we see the results. LOL

  24. Paul B on August 28th, 2012 6:07 pm

    That wild pitch was off his glove. I don’t care how it was scored, a good catcher would have stopped it.

    Olivo is historically bad at allowing pass balls and wild pitches.

  25. djw on August 28th, 2012 6:07 pm

    The Twins announcers are really confused about how Olivo could have missed that. I envy them.

  26. terryoftacoma on August 28th, 2012 6:08 pm

    sorry paul on that pitch I disagree. However, the last one he should have had.

  27. Westside guy on August 28th, 2012 6:10 pm

    Seager’s been worth 2.9 WAR combining an okay bat with a great glove. There aren’t actually that many third baseman that have been worth significantly more than he is.

    I think we’ve found our third baseman of the future, and he needs to stay there. :-D

  28. Adruidan on August 28th, 2012 6:11 pm

    I’ve always followed Dave’s analysis on Olivo’s poor defense and have always agreed with him. This is just more proof. Montero can be as servicable at the plate without being so anemic as a hitter.

  29. Paul B on August 28th, 2012 6:12 pm

    it isn’t a coincidence that pitchers throw wild pitches more frequently when Olivo is catching. He’s had a long career, he’s been very consistent.

  30. terryoftacoma on August 28th, 2012 6:15 pm

    Olivo has 8(now) pass balls. Montero has 6. He’s bad but not near as bad as people want him to be.

  31. Adruidan on August 28th, 2012 6:16 pm

    Where is Thames? He has been at least somwhat productive.

  32. terryoftacoma on August 28th, 2012 6:17 pm

    I just get tried of hearing Olivo is bad. Yes, he is but he’s playing so it is what it is.

  33. Adruidan on August 28th, 2012 6:21 pm

    Oh I see him (embarressed)

  34. Westside guy on August 28th, 2012 6:21 pm

    Terry you’re taking away people’s fun. :-D

  35. terryoftacoma on August 28th, 2012 6:23 pm

    haha I know Westy. I want to root for these guys to win not find excuses why they don’t. Think we’ve had losing teams for too long.

  36. Westside guy on August 28th, 2012 6:24 pm

    I would like to see Jaso get some starts against lefties, though. He has been bad against them, but it hasn’t been that many ABs either.

    I was really hopeful about Monty catching when I first saw him. I got over that pretty quickly.

  37. Westside guy on August 28th, 2012 6:25 pm

    Adruidan – Thames must’ve heard your question and decided to get on camera more.

  38. terryoftacoma on August 28th, 2012 6:27 pm

    Westy, I’d like to see Jaso more against lefties, too. But I think they think he can’t hit them.

  39. Adruidan on August 28th, 2012 6:29 pm

    Westside guy. I am at a total loss, for some reason I thought we put Figgins out there. ;-P

  40. Adruidan on August 28th, 2012 6:31 pm

    For shortstop…Brendan Ryan is worth his poor batting clip. I know most of you agree with me, but where do you get a guy who hits at least reasonable considering his superior defense? Alex Rodriguez a la 2000 is not showing up on the free agent pool anytime soon. I hope we stick with him.

  41. Westside guy on August 28th, 2012 6:33 pm

    Ackley!!

  42. stevemotivateir on August 28th, 2012 6:33 pm

    Good time for Ackley to hit a triple. He’s due for another one.

  43. terryoftacoma on August 28th, 2012 6:33 pm

    YES!!!!

  44. Adruidan on August 28th, 2012 6:33 pm

    Ackley!! after I criticized his clip….poor me today. LOL

  45. stevemotivateir on August 28th, 2012 6:33 pm

    Holly crap, even better!!

  46. Adruidan on August 28th, 2012 6:33 pm

    Just wait. Olivo hits a grandslam and I never comment again!!

  47. msfanmike on August 28th, 2012 6:34 pm

    Crushed!

  48. Westside guy on August 28th, 2012 6:34 pm

    Yeah if circa-2000 A-Rod shows up I’d be willing to dump Ryan. :-D

  49. terryoftacoma on August 28th, 2012 6:34 pm

    Haha Steve!

  50. stevemotivateir on August 28th, 2012 6:35 pm

    I swear, I had a feeling he was going to do something big!

  51. Westside guy on August 28th, 2012 6:36 pm

    Don’t worry, Adruidan – Olivo is certainly capable of hitting a grand slam, but he’d follow it with 12 strikeouts.

  52. terryoftacoma on August 28th, 2012 6:37 pm

    All on pitches outside the strike zone Westy. hehe

  53. Westside guy on August 28th, 2012 6:39 pm

    hehehe Terry – it’s funny because it’s true!

  54. stevemotivateir on August 28th, 2012 6:39 pm

    Wow, either gamecast is off, or the umpire really blew that first pitch.

  55. terryoftacoma on August 28th, 2012 6:44 pm

    Iwakuma don’t do that you haven’t got Johnny Bench back there!

  56. stevemotivateir on August 28th, 2012 6:45 pm

    With Felix drawing so much attention for his brilliant pitching, Iwakuma has really slid under the radar. He’s been pitching really great too.

  57. Westside guy on August 28th, 2012 6:59 pm

    Great DP there – unusual.

  58. Westside guy on August 28th, 2012 7:06 pm

    Ryan is certainly enjoying Twins pitching today…

  59. stevemotivateir on August 28th, 2012 7:14 pm

    Believe it or not, I haven’t been able to see a live game since the USSM/LL event at Safeco. But that changes Friday, as I found a place locally that will show the game. Never thought I’d be so excited to catch a game on TV!

  60. Westside guy on August 28th, 2012 7:24 pm

    Cool beans, Steve!

  61. groundzero55 on August 28th, 2012 7:26 pm

    Must be nice. I live in Montana and we get no games on tv. None. At least in Minneapolis I could catch Twins games.

  62. stevemotivateir on August 28th, 2012 7:27 pm

    Wow, sorry to hear that GZ. I’m in Brazil… what does that say about Montana?!

  63. terryoftacoma on August 28th, 2012 7:30 pm

    See with a pitching change Wedge should swap Olivo for Jaso and use his bench for a change. What am I thinking? This is Wedge. Never mind. hehe

  64. lalo on August 28th, 2012 7:44 pm

    Iwakuma will be with the M´s again next season, he´s earned it…

  65. djw on August 28th, 2012 7:56 pm

    Man, the Twins announcers are extremely angry and bitter about the lack of hitting.

  66. msfanmike on August 28th, 2012 8:04 pm

    Great job by Iwakuma, tonight.

    Alright Tommy … Close this mother, out!

  67. Bremerton guy on August 28th, 2012 8:04 pm

    Good grief, the tying run at the plate.

  68. Westside guy on August 28th, 2012 8:23 pm

    Well, now, let’s go for another sweep tomorrow.

    Um… and Thursday.

  69. bookbook on August 28th, 2012 9:01 pm

    I love how we’re all so accustomed to the new normal that five runs of offense doesn’t even draw much of a comment anymore. What a difference two weeks makes.

  70. SonOfZavaras on August 28th, 2012 10:10 pm

    Is it just me, or is Trayvon Robinson giving the team a lot more 2-for-4 kinda nights?

    I still think his ceiling is “first-rate fourth OF”- that arm just isn’t playable on a full-time basis unless you’re a young Rondell White or Rickey Henderson- but it’d be nice if the guy has proved he can handle a stick enough to not embarrass us that he’s on the team.

  71. Westside guy on August 28th, 2012 10:23 pm

    It’s pretty amazing how well Trayvon’s done cutting down his strikeouts AND increasing his contact rate. Jeff Sullivan even wrote an article about it.

    He might actually end up being a useful player.

  72. djw on August 29th, 2012 5:59 am

    Olivo has 8(now) pass balls. Montero has 6. He’s bad but not near as bad as people want him to be.

    Here’s the thing: They’re both really really bad. But Montero is 22. His awfulness is recognized. He’ll either get better or stop being a catcher. Olivo has a reputation for being good, and there’s apparently mass denial about his inadequacy as a catcher. That’s what makes watching him utterly maddening.

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.