Game 130, Mariners at Twins
Iwakuma vs Diamond, 5:10 pm.
Scott Diamond is exactly the type of pitcher you expect the Twins to have – a soft-tossing command lefty who doesn’t miss bats and outperforms his FIP. For years, the Twins have been building rotations with guys exactly like this. This year, it all fell apart, and Diamond is the only guy they have doing this. He’s also not likely to keep doing it for that much longer.
Diamond’s ERA is pretty sparkly, but look at his splits in the various baserunner states:
Bases Empty: .306/.331/.456, .339 wOBA
Men On Base: .225/.274/.343, .272 wOBA
RISP: .217/.281/.348, .276 wOBA
With the bases empty, Diamond has been a below average strike thrower. When people have gotten on base, his BABIP has gone through the floor and he’s managed to leave them there. This isn’t really a sustainable skill, though – Diamond’s splits are going to even out, and his ERA is going to go up, even if he doesn’t do anything differently.
He’s probably a decent #5 starter given his strikes and groundballs approach to the game, but he’s not as good as his 2012 numbers look. Of course, Liam Hendriks 2012 numbers were terrible and the Mariners got one run off of him, so who knows.