Game 137, Red Sox at Mariners
Blake Beavan vs. Jon Lester, 7:10pm
Puyallup native Jon Lester’s season is a microcosm for the Sox’ agonizing 2012 campaign. He came into 2012 looking to compete for a Cy Young after a somewhat disappointing 2011, just as the Red Sox attempted to put the misery of the last day of 2011 (and the departure of their manager and GM) behind them. While Lester’s FIP/xFIP have been relatively consistent, a drop in Ks and an increase in HRs have left him with an ERA that produces a below-replacement level rWAR. I’m not going to suggest that you look at the ERA and ignore the FIP, but it’s troubling that his K rate has dropped so markedly – he was over 26% for two full years, and now he’s down at 19.6%. This, coupled with a six-start run that was jaw-droppingly bad, has led to some speculation that he’s pitching hurt.
He’s quieted that talk with two brilliant outings in mid-August, but his last two starts have been a mixed bag. Lester’s K rates are down for lefties and righties, but they’ve fallen fast against right-handers. In his great 2009-2010 seasons, he fanned a roughly equal percentage of lefties and righties (around 26%), as he had a great change-up to go with his curve ball. He’s fanning less lefties, but his K rate to righties has plummeted to 18%. While a lot of attention’s focused on his cutter usage, his fastball and change aren’t working the way they once did to right-handers.
The M’s counter with Blake Beavan, who can only imagine what a 19% K% in the majors might be like, not to mention having everyone wonder if you’re OK because you’re only striking out 7 per 9.
Dave told you all about the 7 players the M’s added from the Tacoma roster, but an 8th Rainier will be at the game tonight too – Catcher Guillermo Quiroz was traded to Boston and will presumably be in uniform for tonight’s game. The M’s appeared to like his pitch-calling, but there was obviously no space for him on an M’s team that’s already carrying three catchers.
The line-up is about as righty-heavy as it could be, save for swapping Liddi in for Seager. The good side is that Casper Wells gets the start in his first game back from AAA, and the down side is that Olivo catches. In this game, against this pitcher, I think you could make a case that starting Olivo isn’t the worst move, but life’s too short to debate things like that for long given that neither of these teams is going anywhere this year. The Red Sox are going nowhere this year. That’s amazing, and the source of rich, nourishing schadenfreude.
1: Ackley
2: Gutierrez
3: Seager
4: Montero (DH)
5: Smoak
6: Olivo (C)
7: Robinson
8: Wells
9: Ryan
SP: Beavan
Victor Sanchez pitches for Everett tonight in the Northwest League playoffs. If you’re in the north end, or if you want to see an interesting young pitcher, go see the AquaSox game tonight.
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100 Responses to “Game 137, Red Sox at Mariners”
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Our best hitter on the bench is just dumb. Like you said, it doesn’t really matter much but it still bugs me.
I dunno, as Marc said, the Mariners aren’t going anywhere this year. To me that says it’d be a perfect time to give Jaso some starts against lefties. As good as he is against righties, it’d be nice to find out how he could perform in a full-time role (as Dave argued a while back, I believe).
It seems to me there’s an outside chance we could compete for a wildcard berth next season – so why waste any more starts on Olivo, who has no future here? Let’s use the remaining games in 2012 to prepare for 2013.
He wants Olivo to catch and Montero to DH. Fine, but why the hell is Smoak in there? You have three more players who can cover first now, including a RHB in Alex Liddi, who left Tacoma red-hot.
Wouldn’t it be funny if they were actually evaluating Olivo, having not made up their minds about his option?!
Your definition of “funny” must be different than mine, Steve.
I think it’s clear Wedge wants to bring Olivo back. Fortunately, he doesn’t make that decision. But, let’s still hope the other powers don’t make it.
I’d sign Jaso to a 3 year contract and then teach him 1B for when Zunino comes knocking. Montero can be our full time DH and Jaso our full time 1B.
Jaso is quite the athlete and I think he could handle first a lot better than Montero could.
Sims has some nice hats.
Angie should have left her hair like it was recently when she changed it.
You can tell I’m really excited by Beavan,
Guti!
Ha Ha, Twins are clobbering the White Sox.
Wedge apparently thinks Smoak and Olivo are better hitters than Wells.
Hey! Someone finally told Wedge that Wells can play right field!
Wonder if the Quiroz deal is just a rental.
Wonder why Carp isn’t playing instead of Smoak.
Jaso is still under team control for three years, so a three year contract wouldn’t make any sense. A five year deal would, but I doubt we’ll see that happen this year.
Smoak! Taking advantage of the not-Angels!
(Trout reference)
Actually, yeah – why isn’t Carp playing?
Check out Humber’s line tonight.
He didn’t last long.
How quick they fall.
Or Liddi. Either of them would have made more sense than Smoak. So of course, Smoak gets a hit first time up.
Oh wow.. I thought next year was the last on Jaso’s contract. That made my day haha
Smoak is still under the Mendoza line against lefties this year.
How can a guy throw a perfect game and then a couple of months later he is pitching mop up and he can’t get anyone out?
Brendan Ryan is like Mark Belanger minus the “hitting prowess” and several Gold Gloves.
Even with Ryan’sgreat glove work he is currently at 1.2 WAR (Fangraphs) for the season. The average major leaguer produces 2.0 WAR, correct?
I was originally going to complain about Smoak, but the mood just struck – during Ryan’s AB.
Back to back bombs!
No pressure Monty.
This is a nice way to start an inning. Is this the first time M’s have gone back to back this year?
That soldier who caught the ball has got to become an internet sensation. Assuming MLB lets the video go viral. What a happy dude, and who can possibly do anything but smile at how pleased he was. Even a Red Sox fan. Okay, maybe not a Red Sox fan, but if they can’t, that says more about them than about him.
Oh, no, not Guti again. After that incredible shot, too.
Even when we have nice things…WE CAN’T HAVE NICE THINGS.
I think this is at least the third time this season, Steve. I can’t remember specifics, but I know it has occurred more than once this season.
What happened to Guti?
Guti stretches a tight hammy in the dugout – after his HR – and gets yanked.
Super.
Swisher, Upton, Upton, Cabrera … Sign ‘or trade for all of them. Maybe one (Swisher) can play 1B.
What happened with Guti? I went away from the game for a while, and he’s not in there anymore…
Thanks for the info, Mike. Couldn’t remember that happening this season. Glad it wasn’t the first time!
I’d bet it’s nothing serious with Guti, just taking extra (EXTRA) precautions with him. Of course, I say that without being able to actually see the game.
Argh. With Guti, you can’t count on anything not being serious. Heck, Saunders doesn’t usually get hurt, and he’s having a hard time coming back from a similar sort of injury.
Wells may have a chance now to show he belongs…
Na, I’m sure we’ll see Figgins or Peguero out there tomorrow if Guti can’t go. Wells isn’t going to start two games in a row with Wedge managing. What are you thinking?!
Wedge probably went out to ask the ump if he has also stolen his teams steal sign.
Not a tight hammy. A tight groin, reportedly.
Okay, so now both our center fielders are out with tight groins… and this is tight groin #3 on the team! It’s an epidemic!
THAT was an excellent throw by O-O-Olivo!
I blame the marine layer.
At this point if I’m Wedge, I’m telling Guti to tough out the injury! It doesn’t sound all that serious at all and his constant injuries are really tiring!
Maybe what Saunders caught was contagious? Hopefully they aren’t sharing clothing or equipment. That would put the Vargas/Fister sock commercial to shame.
Robinson in left has to be worth one or two extra doubles a game… for the other team.
He’s a good fielder, but that arm…
That’ll be next year’s commercial Steve – after Saunders’ good year this year, he’ll be offering to share his lucky jock.
Nice to see Monty swingin’ a hot bat.
Wouldn’t be lucky if it’s causing pulled groins!
Well, at least Smoak didn’t hit into DP. Baby steps.
They were shooting the commercial before they realized the connection – and at that point they figured they’d go ahead and just use it anyway.
And for once Olivo didn’t strike out swinging. That was a pretty borderline strike.
Nice cover Westy :p
Blake just Beavan’ed it. CRAP.
Okay, now it’s a double-Beavan.
Definitely early season classic Beavan.
He’s so Beavan
This is what happens to pitchers who have issues missing bats.
New shows to be pitched for the coming season…
That’s So Beavan (Disney Channel)
Leave It To Beavan (ABC Family)
oh oh
Beavan and Butthead (Comedy Central)
It’ll be interesting to see what the Mariners do with Capps next year. Will they put him back in AAA for a while, or will they use him in the bullpen with the big club right away?
Or will they package him for a slugger?
True – they do have a lot of young arms available.
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we saw Capps and Paxton as part of a deal for a bat.
I really don’t think giving drivers the ability to buy movie tickets from their dash is a good idea.
(commercial that just played)
Ackley, also taking advantage of the not-Angels in the outfield!
Come on Jesus!
Nice job by both Ackley and Seager.
Way to strand the runners.
Westside guy,
Law and Order: Special Beavan Unit
Breaking Beavan
So You Think You Can Beavan.
I know the original shows don’t sound anything like Beavan like yours did, but when you put the meaning of “Beavan” in there its funny. At least to me lol.
Soooo… who’s gonna be our 1B next year? Cuz Smoak sure as hell ain’t it.
Amen to no more Smoak!
Anyone who can explain why Justin Smoak hits 5th should apply immediately to replace Mike Blowers as Mr. Muppet on the broadcast crew. Shame on any analyst who sits silently by, watching Thames’ totally bush effort at a bunt. Earn your money, Blow!
Smoak is awesome.
Hehe CM…
“Breaking Beavan” was pretty good actually.
“Anyone who can explain why Justin Smoak hits 5th should apply immediately to replace Mike Blowers ”
Are you saying Smoak deserves to hit 5th? I’m confused.
Oh yeah, Mike Carp – the third member of the Tight Groin Trio.
I would have rather seen Carp, Jiminez or Jaso hit in the high leverage situation. Either Liddi if Boston had countered with a LHP. Smoak has been given enough rope to hang multiple busted prospects.
Shut. Smoak. Down.
I would have rather seen Carp, Jiminez or Jaso hit in the high leverage situation. Either Liddi if Boston had countered with a LHP. Smoak has been given enough rope to hang multiple busted prospects.
Shut. Smoak. Down.
That was pathetic.
Okay, the outfield for the ninth inning just got interesting.
And by interesting I mean really bad.
Why let Smoak hit, but then sub in Carp for Wells?
I love that Carp hits for Wells but not Smoak. I wish I could know what Wedge was ‘thinking.’ I don’t think it matters much how the off season plays out if Wedge is still in the dugout to handle player evaluations and fill out the lineup cards.
Plus Carp is recovering from a tight groin, AND they claimed they were going to protect his shoulder and not put him in the outfield again this year.
So unless they do another substitution, this just just bizarre on several levels.
Oh, okay – I still don’t get letting Smoak bat, but they did run Figgy out there instead of Carp. So *slightly* less bizarre than I thought. But still…
It makes no sense, Westy/Jordan. Wedge is outdoing himself tonight.
It kills me that these managers are still bunting in these situations. Just giving up easy outs.
Maybe Wedge is trying to impress Bobby Valentine.
I’m not sure how accurate the movie moneyball is but maybe Z needs to go Billy Beane on Wedges ass.
Z should copy Beane in more ways than one.
Is there a rule that says the catcher has to be right behind the plate when the pitcher releases the ball? I’m wondering why, when they’re intentionally walking someone, the catcher always starts behind the plate and dashes out there rather than just standing out there in the first place.
They’re certainly not trying to deceive anyone.
Jimenez gets lessons from Smoak.
Lets see some 9th inning magic!
There is such a thing as the “catchers box” and a catcher can be called for a balk if he leaves it prior to the pitcher releasing the ball.
They leave the “box” early all the time and it is never called, but there is a reason why they do what they do. Since you asked.
THAMES!
Thanks Mike – I didn’t know the catcher could balk!
Crappy “lefty strike zone”.
Crap.
That umpire has shit in his eyes.
This game had a definite 2011 feel to it.
Tomorrow is another day.
Can’t wait for the poser a-hole bandwagon SAWX fans to get the hell out of our ballpark. Sounds like the M’s are playing at Fenway West and I DO. NOT. LIKE.
You don’t like the Faux-Sox fans, jephdood?
It’s actually the pitcher that gets charged with the “balk” for throwing a pitch when the catcher is out of the box, but it is known as a “catchers balk”.
It’s so obscure that the catchers box chalk outline isn’t put out onto the field. Occasionally you might see the box lined in chalk for a high school game. Nobody knows what the hell it is, but it will pop into view every now and then.
Wow, I’ve played baseball my whole life up through high school and watched and followed it closely and I never knew anything about the catchers box. Interesting.
Yeah, after Mike talked about it I went and browsed through the official rules. They’re very specific about the catcher’s box and the catcher having to be in there – it’s funny how it never gets talked about! We hear about the batter’s box all the time…
The catchers box is impossibly narrow. Probably why it has been “unofficially” eliminated from consciousness.
It is the width of the inside edge of each batters box – extending straight back. A lot of catchers set up outside of it – when trying to get their pitcher to miss ‘away.’
If someone ever calls a catchers balk, I would be stunned … but it is a thing.